The role of landscape history and persistent biogeographical patterns in shaping the responses of Mediterranean land snail communities to recent fire disturbances

Aims To assess the impact of various fire regimes over the past 30 years on land snail communities and to analyse the role of recent landscape history and the influence of biogeography in shaping the response patterns of gastropod communities following disturbances by fire. Location South-eastern France (Provence) and Mediterranean region. Methods Stratified sampling within 12 sites was undertaken with regard to fire regime (i.e. number of fires, fire intervals and age of the last fire) occurring over the past 30 years. The study was complemented by a historical analysis using aerial photographs, old maps of vegetation cover and an analysis of the biogeographical composition of malacofaunas. Data were investigated using Correspondence Analysis and Sørensen coefficient of similarity. Results When a disturbance regime (land use or fire disturbances) has been maintained over decades or centuries, land snail communities appear highly modified and tend to be composed of only Mediterranean and xerophilous species. However, low fire regimes, since the 1970s, do not seem to greatly affect the composition of gastropod communities. Indeed, shade-loving, mesophilous and European range species persist even after successive fires within some sites. In addition, the malacofaunas have a higher component of European range species with increasing distance from the Mediterranean sea. Main conclusions Analysis of the response patterns of gastropod communities to fire shows a response to numerous different factors. The composition of current land snail communities is not only the result of (more or less) recent patterns of fire regimes but also of anthropogenic disturbances, of landscape changes over the last centuries and of subsequent structure of the pre-fire habitat, as well as of the influence of a biogeographical gradient. However, the response patterns observed and the persistence of pre-fire communities imply the presence of cryptic refuges located within burned areas.     

Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009)

Non‐native, invasive grasses have been linked to altered grass‐fire cycles worldwide. Although a few studies have quantified resulting changes in fire activity at local scales, and many have speculated about larger scales, regional alterations to fire regimes remain poorly documented. We assessed the influence of large‐scale Bromus tectorum (hereafter cheatgrass) invasion on fire size, duration, spread rate, and interannual variability in comparison to other prominent land cover classes across the Great Basin, USA. We compared regional land cover maps to burned area measured using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2000–2009 and to fire extents recorded by the USGS registry of fires from 1980 to 2009. Cheatgrass dominates at least 6% of the central Great Basin (650 000 km²). MODIS records show that 13% of these cheatgrass‐dominated lands burned, resulting in a fire return interval of 78 years for any given location within cheatgrass. This proportion was more than double the amount burned across all other vegetation types (range: 0.5–6% burned). During the 1990s, this difference was even more extreme, with cheatgrass burning nearly four times more frequently than any native vegetation type (16% of cheatgrass burned compared to 1–5% of native vegetation). Cheatgrass was also disproportionately represented in the largest fires, comprising 24% of the land area of the 50 largest fires recorded by MODIS during the 2000s. Furthermore, multi‐date fires that burned across multiple vegetation types were significantly more likely to have started in cheatgrass. Finally, cheatgrass fires showed a strong interannual response to wet years, a trend only weakly observed in native vegetation types. These results demonstrate that cheatgrass invasion has substantially altered the regional fire regime. Although this result has been suspected by managers for decades, this study is the first to document recent cheatgrass‐driven fire regimes at a regional scale.     

Climatic influences on fire regimes in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains, Lake Tahoe Basin, Nevada, USA

Aim The goal of this study was to understand better the role of interannual and interdecadal climatic variation on local pre‐EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes in fire‐prone Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Grev. & Balf.) dominated forests in the northern Sierra Nevada Mountains. Location Our study was conducted in a 6000‐ha area of contiguous mixed Jeffrey pine‐white fir (Abies concolor Gordon & Glend.) forest on the western slope of the Carson Range on the eastern shore of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Methods Pre‐EuroAmerican settlement fire regimes (i.e. frequency, return interval, extent, season) were reconstructed in eight contiguous watersheds for a 200‐year period (1650–1850) from fire scars preserved in the annual growth rings of nineteenth century cut stumps and recently dead pre‐settlement Jeffrey pine trees. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) and correlation analysis were used to examine relationships between tree ring‐based reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and pre‐EuroAmerican fire regimes in order to assess the influence of drought and equatorial and north Pacific teleconnections on fire occurrence and fire extent. Results For the entire period of record (1650–1850), wet conditions were characteristic of years without fires. In contrast, fire years were associated with drought. Drought intensity also influenced fire extent and the most widespread fires occurred in the driest years. Years with widespread fires were also preceded by wet conditions 3 years before the fire. Widespread fires were also associated with phase changes of the PDO, with the most widespread burns occurring when the phase changed from warm (positive) to cold (negative) conditions. Annual SOI and fire frequency or extent were not associated in our study. At decadal time scales, burning was more widespread during decades that were dryer and characterized by La Niña and negative PDO conditions. Interannual and interdecadal fire–climate relationships were not stable over time. From 1700 to 1775 there was no interannual relationship between drought, PDO, and fire frequency or extent. However, from 1775 to 1850, widespread fires were associated with dry years preceded by wet years. This period also had the strongest association between fire extent and the PDO. In contrast, fire–climate associations at interdecadal time scales were stronger in the earlier period than in the later period. The change from strong interdecadal to strong interannual climate influence was associated with a breakdown in decadal scale constructive relationships between PDO and SOI. Main conclusions Climate strongly influenced pre‐settlement pine forest fire regimes in northern Sierra Nevada. Both interannual and interdecadal climatic variation regulated conditions conducive to fire activity, and longer term changes in fire frequency and extent correspond with climate‐mediated changes observed in both the northern and southern hemispheres. The sensitivity of fire regimes to shifts in modes of climatic variability suggests that climate was a key regulator of pine forest ecosystem structure and dynamics before EuroAmerican settlement. An understanding of pre‐EuroAmerican fire–climate relationships may provide useful insights into how fire activity in contemporary forests may respond to future climatic variation.     

Decreasing Fires in Mediterranean Europe

Forest fires are a serious environmental hazard in southern Europe. Quantitative assessment of recent trends in fire statistics is important for assessing the possible shifts induced by climate and other environmental/socioeconomic changes in this area. Here we analyse recent fire trends in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece, building on a homogenized fire database integrating official fire statistics provided by several national/EU agencies. During the period 1985-2011, the total annual burned area (BA) displayed a general decreasing trend, with the exception of Portugal, where a heterogeneous signal was found. Considering all countries globally, we found that BA decreased by about 3020 km² over the 27-year-long study period (i.e. about -66% of the mean historical value). These results are consistent with those obtained on longer time scales when data were available, also yielding predominantly negative trends in Spain and France (1974-2011) and a mixed trend in Portugal (1980-2011). Similar overall results were found for the annual number of fires (NF), which globally decreased by about 12600 in the study period (about -59%), except for Spain where, excluding the provinces along the Mediterranean coast, an upward trend was found for the longer period. We argue that the negative trends can be explained, at least in part, by an increased effort in fire management and prevention after the big fires of the 1980’s, while positive trends may be related to recent socioeconomic transformations leading to more hazardous landscape configurations, as well as to the observed warming of recent decades. We stress the importance of fire data homogenization prior to analysis, in order to alleviate spurious effects associated with non-stationarities in the data due to temporal variations in fire detection efforts.     

Divergent Fire Regimes in Two Contrasting Mediterranean Chestnut Forest Landscapes

Humans have historically played a critical role in the management of Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) through traditional fire use. Although chestnut forests are widespread across the Mediterranean Basin, little is known about their historical fire regimes. Our goal here is to generate testable hypotheses about the drivers of fire regime dynamics in chestnut dominated ecosystems. To examine anthropogenic fire management we selected two sites in Spain that have similar biophysical characteristics but divergent levels of economic development and fire management policies. Fire regime-landscape feedbacks were characterized through a pilot dendroecological study, official fire statistics, aerial photography and forest inventory data. Our results suggest that fire incidence in both sites has increased since the pre-industrial era but fire season, fire size, and forest structure have changed to a greater extent in the more developed site. These changes are probably driven by the decline in annual anthropogenic burning of litterfall by local communities at the more developed site during the non-vegetative season.     

Mediterranean landscape changes: evidence from old postcards

Recent, rapid and often underestimated landscape changes have occurred over large areas in Mediterranean Europe. They are the result of major rural depopulation. Old photographs of landscapes taken at the beginning of the twentieth century (i.e. old postcards) and present-day photographs taken at the same places were compared in a 2500-km² area of southern France. Vegetation changes were analysed using transition matrices. During the 80-year study period, land uses and vegetation changed dramatically. Woodland cover and tree height increased; but in contrast, the extent of cropped lands and rangelands decreased. Forest spread was heterogeneous, depending on initial composition of the vegetation, and locally dominant ecological and socio-economic conditions. Our data show that a Mediterranean forest can re-establish under humid climatic conditions and spread within a century, despite severe prior exploitation over several decades. These dramatic changes are liable to have biological and ecological consequences (e.g. spread of woodland species, threat against open habitat species, fire regime modification, deterioration in water resources), some of them being already perceptible.     

Effects of fire recurrence in Quercus coccifera L. shrublands of the Valencia Region (Spain): I. plant composition and productivity

The purpose of this study was to determine whether fire recurrence modifies the regeneration capacity of Quercus coccifera garrigues in the Valencia region (eastern Spain). We studied several areas with different fire recurrences (1, 2 and 3 fires in 16 years), all of which had sustained a common last fire in 1994. Three-and-a-half years after the last fire, differences between the 3 fire recurrences were not detected with respect to total plant cover and Q. coccifera cover, with a mean value between 92 and 76%. On the most frequently burned sites, herbaceous and subshrub species cover showed a tendency to increase, while that of the obligate seeding shrub, Ulex parviflorus, decreased with both fire frequency and shorter last-fire interval. The most recurrently burned areas with the shortest last-fire intervals presented higher species richness, which mainly affected the herbaceous and subshrub species group, and of these, the hemichryptophytes. The major effect of fire recurrence was the significant decrease in stem and total biomass of Q. coccifera in the three studied sites. Three-and-a-half years after the fire, the mean total biomass values were around 1500, 1000 and 700 g. m⁻² in the garrigues with 1, 2 and 3 fires respectively. Stem production was more affected than leaf production. Leaf area index values showed the same pattern as leaf biomass. Recurrent fires also caused a decrease in net primary production measured the fourth year after fire. The results point to the fact that fire recurrence can cause depletion in garrigue productivity and recovery capacity in southern areas, in contrast with the high resilience observed in northern Mediterranean garrigues.     

Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Aim The historical variability of fire regimes must be understood in the context of drivers of the occurrence of fire operating at a range of spatial scales from local site conditions to broad‐scale climatic variation. In the present study we examine fire history and variations in the fire regime at multiple spatial and temporal scales for subalpine forests of Engelmann spruce–subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) of the southern Rocky Mountains. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of spruce–fir and lodgepole pine forests in the southern sector of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO), Colorado, USA, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range (40°20′ N and 105°40′ W). Methods We used a combination of dendroecological and Geographic Information System methods to reconstruct fire history, including fire year, severity and extent at the forest patch level, for c. 30,000 ha of subalpine forest. We aggregated fire history information at appropriate spatial scales to test for drivers of the fire regime at local, meso, and regional scales. Results The fire histories covered c. 30,000 ha of forest and were based on a total of 676 partial cross‐sections of fire‐scarred trees and 6152 tree‐core age samples. The subalpine forest fire regime of ROMO is dominated by infrequent, extensive, stand‐replacing fire events, whereas surface fires affected only 1–3% of the forested area. Main conclusions Local‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by differences in the relative proportions of stands of different ages between the lodgepole pine and spruce–fir forest types. Lodgepole pine stands all originated following fires in the last 400 years; in contrast, large areas of spruce–fir forests consisted of stands not affected by fire in the past 400 years. Meso‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by fewer but larger fires on the west vs. east side of the continental divide. These differences appear to be explained by less frequent and severe drought on the west side, and by the spread of fires from lower‐elevation mixed‐conifer montane forests on the east side. Regional‐scale climatic variation is the primary driver of infrequent, large fire events, but its effects are modulated by local‐ and meso‐scale abiotic and biotic factors. The low incidence of fire during the period of fire‐suppression policy in the twentieth century is not unique in comparison with the previous 300 years of fire history. There is no evidence that fire suppression has resulted in either the fire regime or current forest conditions being outside their historic ranges of variability during the past 400 years. Furthermore, in the context of fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard, regardless of restoration goals, the association of extremely large and severe fires with infrequent and exceptional drought calls into question the future effectiveness of tree thinning to mitigate fire hazard in the subalpine zone.     

Simulating Mediterranean landscape pattern and vegetation dynamics under different fire regimes

In the Mediterranean Basin, landscape patterns are strongly human-modified. In recent decades, because of industrialisation and rural exodus, many fields have been abandoned, generating changes in the landscape pattern. In this framework, I aim to study the effect of landscape pattern on landscape dynamic processes in the Mediterranean Basin using simulation models and considering that fire may interact with landscape pattern. First I generate a gradient of five artificial random landscapes. In each landscape I include four species types growing in the Mediterranean Basin, each type with different plant traits (Quercus, Pinus, Erica and Cistus types). In each landscape scenario, each species covers 30% of the landscape but with a different spatial distribution, from the coarsest-grained (L1) to the finest-grained (L5). Then, the dynamics of each of these five landscapes were simulated for 100 years using the FATELAND simulation model. Simulations were run with six fire regime scenarios in each landscape scenario (no fire, mean fire interval of 80, 40, 20, 10 and 5 years). Landscape attributes were computed for the initial and the final landscapes. As expected, the results suggest that, as expected, some species increase and others decrease depending on the fire regime. However, the results also show that different landscape structures produce different dynamics and thus that there is a clear interaction between landscape pattern and fire regime. For instance, coarse-grained spatial patterns generate slower dynamics than fine-grained patterns, and fire-sensitive species are maintained longer under coarse-grained patterns (i.e., fragmentation accelerates extinction of fire-sensitive species).A draft version of this paper was presented at the Special Symposium “Global Change and Landscape Fires” held during the IALE World Congress, in Darwin, Australia, 13–17 July 2003.     

Tropical and north Pacific teleconnections influence fire regimes in pine-dominated forests of north-eastern California, USA

Aim To assess the importance of drought and teleconnections from the tropical and north Pacific Ocean on historical fire regimes and vegetation dynamics in north‐eastern California. Location The 700 km² study area was on the leeward slope of the southern Cascade Mountains in north‐eastern California. Open forests of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa var. ponderosa Laws.) and Jeffrey pine (P. jeffreyi Grev. & Balf) surround a network of grass and shrub‐dominated meadows that range in elevation from 1650 to 1750 m. Methods Fire regime characteristics (return interval, season and extent) were determined from crossdated fire scars and were compared with tree‐ring based reconstructions of precipitation and temperature and teleconnections for the period 1700–1849. The effect of drought on fire regimes was determined using a tree‐ring based proxy of climate from five published chronologies. The number of forest‐meadow units that burned was compared with published reconstructions of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results Landscape scale fires burned every 7–49 years in meadow‐edge forests and were influenced by variation in drought, the PDO and ENSO. These widespread fires burned during years that were dryer and warmer than normal that followed wetter and cooler years. Less widespread fires were not associated with this wet, then dry climate pattern. Widespread fires occurred during El Niño years, but fire extent was mediated by the phase of the PDO. Fires were most widespread when the PDO was in a warm or normal phase. Fire return intervals, season and extent varied at decadal to multi‐decadal time scales. In particular, an anomalously cool, wet period during the early 1800s resulted in widespread fires that occurred earlier in the year than fires before or after. Main conclusions Fire regimes in north‐eastern California were strongly influenced by regional and hemispheric‐scale climate variation. Fire regimes responded to variation that occurred in both the north and tropical Pacific. Near normal modes of the PDO may influence fire regimes more than extreme conditions. The prevalence of widespread teleconnection‐driven fires in the historic record suggests that variation in the Pacific Ocean was a key regulator of fire regimes through its influence on local fuel production and successional dynamics in north‐eastern California.     

Climate,Livestock, and Vegetation: What Drives Fire Increase in the Arid Ecosystems of Southern Russia?

Fire is an important natural disturbance process in arid grasslands but current fire regimes are largely the result of both human and natural processes and their interactions. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 spurred substantial socioeconomic changes and was ultimately followed by a rapid increase in burned area in southern Russia. What is unclear is whether this increase in burned area was caused by decreasing livestock numbers, vegetation changes, climate change, or interactions of these factors. Our research goal was to identify the driving forces behind the increase in burned area in the arid grasslands of southern Russia. Our study area encompassed 19,000 km² in the Republic of Kalmykia in southern Russia. We analyzed annual burned area from 1986 to 2006 as a function of livestock population, NDVI, precipitation, temperature, and broad-scale oscillation indices using best subset regressions and structural equation modeling. Our results supported the hypothesis that vegetation recovered within 5–6 years after the livestock declined in the beginning of the 1990s, to a point at which large fires could be sustained. Climate was an important explanatory factor for burning, but mainly after 1996 when lower livestock numbers allowed fuels to accumulate. Ultimately, our results highlight the complexity of coupled human-natural systems, and provide an example of how abrupt socioeconomic change may affect fire regimes.     

Understanding shifts in wildfire regimes as emergent threshold phenomena

Ecosystems driven by wildfire regimes are characterized by fire size distributions resembling power laws. Existing models produce power laws, but their predicted exponents are too high and fail to capture the exponent's variation with geographic region. Here we present a minimal model of fire dynamics that describes fire spread as a stochastic birth-death process, analogous to stochastic population growth or disease spread and incorporating memory effects from previous fires. The model reproduces multiple regional patterns in fire regimes and allows us to classify different regions in terms of their proximity to a critical threshold. Transitions across this critical threshold imply abrupt and pronounced increases in average fire size. The model predicts that large regions in Canada are currently close to this transition and might be driven beyond the threshold in the future. We illustrate this point by analyzing the time series for large fires (>199 ha) from the Canadian Boreal Plains, found to have shifted from a subcritical regime to a critical regime in the recent past. By contrast to its predecessor, the model also suggests that a critical transition, and not self-organized criticality, underlies forest fire dynamics, with implications for other ecological systems exhibiting power-law-like patterns, in particular for their sensitivity to environmental change and control efforts.     

Global climate change and litter decomposition: more frequent fire slows decomposition and increases the functional importance of invertebrates

Of the many mechanisms by which global climate change may alter ecosystem processes perhaps the least known and insidious is altered disturbance regimes. We used a field-based experiment to examine the climate change scenario of more frequent fires with altered invertebrate assemblages on the decomposition of Eucalyptus leaves. Our design comprised three fire regimes [long-term fire exclusion (FE), long-term frequent burning (FB) and FE altered to FB (FEFB)] and two litter bag mesh sizes (8.0 and 0.2 mm) that either permitted or denied access to the leaf litter by most invertebrates. We found a significant interaction effect between fire regime and mesh size in losses of litter mass and net carbon (C). Compared with the regime of FE, with more frequent burning (FB and FEFB) the pace of decomposition was slowed by 41% (when access to litter by most invertebrates is not impeded). For the regime of FE, denying access to leaf litter by most invertebrates did not alter the pace of decomposition. Conversely, under regimes of frequently burning, restricting access to the litter by most invertebrates altered the pace of decomposition by 46%. Similar results were found for net C. For net losses of nitrogen (N), no interaction effects between fire regime and mesh size were detected, although both main effects were significant. Our results show that by modifying disturbance regimes such as fire frequency, global climate change has the potential to modify the mechanism by which ecosystems function. With more FB, decomposition is driven not only by fire regime induced changes in substrate quality and/or physiochemical conditions but through the interaction of disturbance regime with animal assemblages mediating ecosystem processes.     

Response of broadleaved evergreen Mediterranean forest vegetation to fire disturbance during the Holocene: insights from the peri-Adriatic region

Aim To test whether fire contributed to the expansion and compositional change of evergreen forests in the Mediterranean region during the Holocene. Location The peri‐Adriatic region, encompassing the Italian peninsula, Sicily and the western and southern Balkans between latitudes 46° and 37° N. Methods New high‐resolution pollen and microscopic charcoal data from Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy) were used to estimate the response of the evergreen oak, Quercus ilex L., to fire during its expansion phase at 8500 cal. yr bp . The data were compared with the pollen and charcoal series from other Mediterranean sites (Lago di Massaciuccoli in Tuscany, Malo Jezero in Croatia, Biviere di Gela in Sicily) and analysed using numerical techniques (redundancy analysis, detrended canonical correspondence analysis) to identify long‐term fire–vegetation linkages and the degree of compositional change. Results Microscopic charcoal and pollen of evergreen oaks were negatively correlated during the period of quasi‐natural fire regime (Mesolithic, 10,000–8000 cal. yr bp ). In addition, there was no such positive correlation during periods when the fire regime was potentially more influenced by people (Neolithic–Bronze Age, 8000–3000 cal. yr bp ). Compared with inland sites, coastal sites that are currently located at a distinct ecotone showed more compositional change. Main conclusions The analyses suggest that climatic change, without an additional effect of fire regimes, favoured the expansion and compositional change of evergreen forests across the peri‐Adriatic region. Strikingly different patterns occurred along a north–south gradient. In the north (Tuscany and Croatia, meso‐Mediterranean belt), Q. ilex replaced deciduous forests when conditions became drier; in the south (Sicily, thermo‐Mediterranean belt) the species replaced maquis or steppe vegetation when climatic conditions became moister. We conclude that the projected increase in fire activity may lead to the loss of most of the remaining relict forests of Q. ilex in southern Europe.     

Fire history of Pinus nigra in Western Anatolia: A first dendrochronological study

Forests in the Mediterranean basin frequently experience fires due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. There are concerns that the fire season will prolong in the Mediterranean basin, the fire frequency will increase with ongoing climate change, moreover, the fire regimes will shift from surface fires to local crown fires. Here, we aim to improve our understanding of the fire regime components of black pine forests in Turkey by 1) reconstructing a high-resolution fire chronology based on tree rings, 2) revealing the seasonality of fires, 3) investigating the relationship between fire and climate, and 4) comparing our reconstruction results with documentary data from forest management units. We collected 62 fire-scarred trees from three sites in Kütahya and developed a 368 year-long (1652–2019) composite fire chronology using dendrochronological methods. We found that at two sites major fire years coincided with dry years. Two major fire years (1853 and 1879) were common to all sites and two additional fire years (1822 and 1894) were found at two sites. Our results show a sharp decline in fire frequency after the beginning of the 20th century at all sites that can be attributed to increased fire suppression efforts and forest management activities in the 20th century. Our results suggest that the spread of fires has been actively suppressed since the first forest protection law in Turkey. Yet, tree-ring based and documentary data corroboration shows that seasonality did not change over the past +350 years.     

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe

Area burned has decreased across Europe in recent decades. This trend may, however, reverse under ongoing climate change, particularly in areas not limited by fuel availability (i.e. temperate and boreal forests). Investigating a novel remote sensing dataset of 64,448 fire events that occurred across Europe between 1986 and 2020, we find a power-law relationship between maximum fire size and area burned, indicating that large fires contribute disproportionally to fire activity in Europe. We further show a robust positive correlation between summer vapor pressure deficit and both maximum fire size (R² = .19) and maximum burn severity (R² = .12). Europe's fire regimes are thus highly sensitive to changes in future climate, with the probability for extreme fires more than doubling by the end of the century. Our results suggest that climate change will challenge current fire management approaches and could undermine the ability of Europe's forests to provide ecosystem services to society.     

Simplifying the savanna: the trajectory of fire‐sensitive vegetation mosaics in northern Australia

Aim Fire is a key agent in savanna systems, yet the capacity to predict fine‐grained population phenomena under variable fire regime conditions at landscape scales is a daunting challenge. Given mounting evidence for significant impacts of fire on vulnerable biodiversity elements in north Australian savannas over recent decades, we assess: (1) the trajectory of fire‐sensitive vegetation elements within a particularly biodiverse savanna mosaic based on long‐term monitoring and spatial modelling; (2) the broader implications for northern Australia; and (3) the applicability of the methodological approach to other fire‐prone settings. Location Arnhem Plateau, northern Australia. Methods We apply data from long‐term vegetation monitoring plots included within Kakadu National Park to derive statistical models describing the responses of structure and floristic attributes to 15 years of ambient (non‐experimental) fire regime treatments. For a broader 28,000 km² region, we apply significant models to spatial assessment of the effects of modern fire regimes (1995–2009) on diagnostic closed forest, savanna and shrubland heath attributes. Results Significant models included the effects of severe fires on large stems of the closed forest dominant Allosyncarpia ternata, stem densities of the widespread savanna coniferous obligate seeder Callitris intratropica, and fire frequency and related fire interval parameters on numbers of obligate seeder taxa characteristic of shrubland heaths. No significant relationships were observed between fire regime and eucalypt and non‐eucalypt adult tree components of savanna. Spatial application of significant models illustrates that more than half of the regional closed forest perimeters, savanna and shrubland habitats experienced deleterious fire regimes over the study period, except in very dissected terrain. Main conclusions While north Australia’s relatively unmodified mesic savannas may appear structurally intact and healthy, this study provides compelling evidence that fire‐sensitive vegetation elements embedded within the savanna mosaic are in decline under present‐day fire regimes. These observations have broader implications for analogous savanna mosaics across northern Australia, and support complementary findings of the contributory role of fire regimes in the demise of small mammal fauna. The methodological approach has application in other fire‐prone settings, but is reliant on significant long‐term infrastructure resourcing.     

Ngadju kala: Australian Aboriginal fire knowledge in the Great Western Woodlands

Indigenous fire knowledge offers significant benefits for ecosystem management and human livelihoods, but is threatened worldwide because of disruption of customary practices. In Australia, the historical prevalence and characteristics of Aboriginal burning are intensely debated, including arguments that Aboriginal burning was frequent across the continent. Frequent burning is supported by contemporary Aboriginal knowledge and practice in some regions, but in southern Australia evidence is typically limited to historical and ecological records. Towards characterizing Aboriginal fire regimes in southern Australia, we collaborated with Ngadju people from the globally significant Great Western Woodlands in south‐western Australia to document their fire knowledge. We used workshops, site visits, interviews and occupation mapping to aid knowledge sharing. Consistent with the established significance of Aboriginal fire in Australia, planned fires were important in Ngadju daily life and land management. However, Ngadju use of fire was characterized by its selectivity rather than its ubiquity. Specifically, Ngadju described only highly targeted planned burning across extensive eucalypt woodlands and sandplain shrublands. By contrast, frequent planned burning was described for resource‐rich landscape elements of more restricted extent (granite outcrop vegetation, grasslands and coastal scrub). Overall, Ngadju fires are likely to have resulted in subtle but purposeful direct effects on the vegetation and biota. However the extent to which they collectively constrained large, intense wildfires remains unclear. Ngadju demonstrated a predictive knowledge of the ecological consequences of burning, including attention to fine‐scale needs of target organisms, and application of diverse fire regimes. These are consistent with the recently proposed concept that Aboriginal burning was guided by ‘templates’ targeting different resources, although diverse regimes predominantly reflect edaphically driven vegetation patterns rather than template‐driven use of fire to create resource diversity. We conclude that Ngadju fire knowledge fills an important gap in understanding Aboriginal fire regimes in southern Australia, highlighting a novel balance between frequent and constrained use of fire.     

Arthropod responses to experimental fire regimes in an Australian tropical savannah: ordinal‐level analysis

Fire is widely used for conservation management in the savannah landscapes of northern Australia, yet there is considerable uncertainty over the ecological effects of different fire regimes. The responses of insects and other arthropods to fire are especially poorly known, despite their dominant roles in the functioning of savannah ecosystems. Fire often appears to have little long‐term effect on ordinal‐level abundance of arthropods in temperate woodlands and open forests of southern Australia, and this paper addresses the extent to which such ordinal‐level resilience also occurs in Australia’s tropical savannahs. The data are from a multidisciplinary, landscape‐scale fire experiment at Kapalga in Kakadu National Park. Arthropods were sampled in the two major savannah habitats (woodland and open forest) using pitfall traps and sweep nets, in 15–20 km² compartments subjected to one of three fire regimes, each with three replicates: ‘early’ (annual fires lit early in the dry season), ‘late’ (annual fires lit late in the dry season), and ‘unburnt’ (fires absent during the five‐year experimental period 1990–94). Floristic cover, richness and composition were also measured in each sampling plot, using point quadrats. There were substantial habitat differences in floristic composition, but fire had no measured effect on plant richness, overall composition, or cover of three of the four dominant species. Of the 11 ordinal arthropod taxa considered from pitfall traps, only four were significantly affected by fire according to repeated‐measures ANOVA . There was a marked reduction in ant abundance in the absence of fire, and declines in spiders, homopterans and silverfish under late fires. Similarly, the abundances of only four of the 10 ordinal taxa from sweep catches were affected by fire, with crickets and beetles declining in the absence of fire, and caterpillars declining under late fires. Therefore, most of the ordinal taxa from the ground and grass‐layer were unaffected by the fire treatments, despite the treatments representing the most extreme fire regimes possible in the region. This indicates that the considerable ordinal‐level resilience to fire of arthropod assemblages that has previously been demonstrated in temperate woodlands and open forests of southern Australia, also occurs in tropical savannah woodlands and open forests of northern Australia.     

Modelling responses of pine savannas to climate change and large‐scale disturbance

Global warming can potentially influence ecological communities through altered disturbance regimes in addition to increased temperatures. We investigate the response of pine savannas in the southeastern United States to global warming using a simple Lotka‐Volterra competition model together with predicted changes to fire and hurricane disturbance regimes with global climate change. In the southeastern United States, decreased frequency of both fires and hurricanes with global warming will shift pine savannas toward a forested state. A CO₂ fertilization effect that increases the growth rate of tree populations will also push southeastern landscapes from open savannas towards closed forests. Transient dynamics associated with climate driven changes in vegetation will last on the order of decades to a century. In our model, the sensitivity of savannas to relative changes in the frequency of fire versus hurricanes is linearly dependent on the growth rate and mortality of trees in fire and hurricane disturbances.