Onchocerciasis in West Africa after 2002: a challenge to take up

Initially planned for a 20 year life time, the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) will have finally continued its activities for nearly three decades (vector control alone from 1975 to 1989, then vector control and/or therapeutic treatment until 2002). Although onchocerciasis is no longer a problem of public health importance nor an obstacle to socio-economic development in the OCP area, the control of this filariasis is not over because OCP never aimed at eradication, neither of the parasite (Onchocerca volvulus), nor of its vector (Simulium damnosum s.l.). In 2003, the eleven Participating countries of OCP will take over the responsibility of carrying out the residual activities of monitoring and the control of this disease. This mission is of great importance because any recrudescence of the transmission could lead in the long run to the reappearance of the clinical signs of onchocerciasis, if not its most serious manifestations. For epidemiological and operational reasons, and given the disparity in national health policies and infrastructures, the capacities of the countries to take over the residual activities of monitoring and control of onchocerciasis are very unequal. Indeed, the interventions to be carried out are very different from one country to another and the process of integrating the residual activities into the national health systems is not taking place at the same pace. This inequality among the countries vis-a-vis the challenges to be met does not, however, prejudge the epidemiological situation after 2002 whose evolution will also depend on the effectiveness of the provisions made before that date by OCP, then after 2002, by the Regional Office for Africa of the World Health Organization which is currently setting up a sub-regional multidisease surveillance centre.     

Freshwater ecology and biodiversity in the tropics: what did we learn from 30 years of onchocerciasis control and the associated biomonitoring of West African rivers?

To release humans from river blindness, the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) was implemented in 1974 and ended in 2002. It has emphasized preservation of biodiversity and inclusion of long-term freshwater biomonitoring since its inception, a position that is unique among the other international development programmes. The biodiversity of the disease system of river blindness includes the black fly vector complex and the worm parasite. Several species of black fly vectors differ in their behaviour, which causes differences in the disease transmission processes. Likewise, different strains of the worm parasite have different pathogenic potentials and are differently transmitted by the same vector species. This complexity of the onchocerciasis disease system was not expected at the beginning of the control programme. It has been progressively discovered, partly as a result of the improvement of molecular biology techniques during the period of OCP. The biological basis for the control of the disease includes the diversity of invertebrate predators of aquatic stages of the vector as well as the sensitivity of these non-target predators to the diversity of insecticides used during OCP. Both the interspecific and intraspecific (i.e. instar) biodiversity, as well as the diversity of insecticides applied during OCP, produced a diversity of effects on the non-target invertebrates, as well as on the potential predation pressure on the vector from the predators among these non-target invertebrates. Finally two biological products, a microfilaricide drug (ivermectin) enabling chemotherapy of humans, and a biological larvicide (Bt H-14) that became available during OCP, contributed considerably to the success of OCP and provide more examples about the role of greater biodiversity in the more effective control of onchocerciasis. The biomonitoring approach designed to evaluate the environmental effects of OCP activities was also the first, longest, and largest scale biomonitoring programme ever implemented in the tropics. We discuss the criteria used to implement the long-term biomonitoring, as well as problems encountered in operational larviciding and how these were solved. Over the long term, biomonitoring faced various unexpected factors or events that made the interpretation of the results more difficult than thought at the beginning. Some of these factors could have been identified at the beginning of OCP but were underestimated, whereas others could     

Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Studying Spatial Abundance of Ungulates: Relevance to Spatial Epidemiology

Complex ecological and epidemiological systems require multidisciplinary and innovative research. Low cost unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) can provide information on the spatial pattern of hosts’ distribution and abundance, which is crucial as regards modelling the determinants of disease transmission and persistence on a fine spatial scale. In this context we have studied the spatial epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in the ungulate community of Doñana National Park (South-western Spain) by modelling species host (red deer, fallow deer and cattle) abundance at fine spatial scale. The use of UAS high-resolution images has allowed us to collect data to model the environmental determinants of host abundance, and in a further step to evaluate their relationships with the spatial risk of TB throughout the ungulate community. We discuss the ecological, epidemiological and logistic conditions under which UAS may contribute to study the wildlife/livestock sanitary interface, where the spatial aggregation of hosts becomes crucial. These findings are relevant for planning and implementing research, fundamentally when managing disease in multi-host systems, and focusing on risky areas. Therefore, managers should prioritize the implementation of control strategies to reduce disease of conservation, economic and social relevance.     

Onchocerciasis control programme-The human perspective

The West African Onchocerciasis Control Programme (OCP), launched in 1974, seeks to interrupt transmission o f Onchocerca volvulus (Fig. I) over a vast area now encompassing 11 countries. The main strategy has been vector control using larvicides (particularly temephos) against blockfly larvae in fast-flowing rivers and streams. More recently, the programme has also begun to implement large-scale chemotherapy using ivermectin. The OCP has an operational budget approaching US$25 million a year. The control activities have led to a dramatic decrease in the incidence of new cases, while overall prevalence of infection has been reduced from about 25-30% to below 5%, accomponied by a similar drop in the numbers o f people presenting severe ocular involvement or blindness. Entomological, clinical and epidemiological results of the programme have been discussed in detail -particularly in the various reports produced by programme personnel and associated researchers (eg. Ref. I). Here, we asked James Senghor and Ebrohim Samba to discuss what the programme has meant to the people involved.     

Environmental assessment of larvicide use in the onchocerciasis control programme

The objective of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme (OCP) is to eliminate onchocerciasis as a disease of public importance and as an obstacle to socio-economic development. The OCP was initially based solely on the control of the blackfly vector, Simulium damnosum sensu lato, by insecticide spraying of the breeding sites on river systems, where larval stages develop. Results of monitoring the environmental effects and the process of risk assessment for new insecticides are reviewed. The achievements of this strategy are outlined here by Davide Calamari, Laurent Yameogo, Jean-Marc Hougard and Christian Leveque.     

A Realistic Host-Vector Transmission Model for Describing Malaria Prevalence Pattern

Malaria continues to be a major public health concern all over the world even after effective control policies have been employed, and considerable understanding of the disease biology have been attained, from both the experimental and modelling perspective. Interactions between different general and local processes, such as dependence on age and immunity of the human host, variations of temperature and rainfall in tropical and sub-tropical areas, and continued presence of asymptomatic infections, regulate the host-vector interactions, and are responsible for the continuing disease prevalence pattern. In this paper, a general mathematical model of malaria transmission is developed considering short and long-term age-dependent immunity of human host and its interaction with pathogen-infected mosquito vector. The model is studied analytically and numerically to understand the role of different parameters related to mosquitoes and humans. To validate the model with a disease prevalence pattern in a particular region, real epidemiological data from the north-eastern part of India was used, and the effect of seasonal variation in mosquito density was modelled based on local climactic data. The model developed based on general features of host-vector interactions, and modified simply incorporating local environmental factors with minimal changes, can successfully explain the disease transmission process in the region. This provides a general approach toward modelling malaria that can be adapted to control future outbreaks of malaria.     

New approaches to quantifying the spread of infection

Recent major disease outbreaks, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and foot-and-mouth disease in the UK, coupled with fears of emergence of human-to-human transmissible variants of avian influenza, have highlighted the importance of accurate quantification of disease threat when relatively few cases have occurred. Traditional approaches to mathematical modelling of infectious diseases deal most effectively with large outbreaks in large populations. The desire to elucidate the highly variable dynamics of disease spread amongst small numbers of individuals has fuelled the development of models that depend more directly on surveillance and contact-tracing data. This signals a move towards a closer interplay between epidemiological modelling, surveillance and disease-management strategies.     

The autoantibodies to alpha 6 beta 4 integrin of patients affected by ocular cicatricial pemphigoid recognize predominantly epitopes within the large cytoplasmic domain of human beta 4

This study was undertaken to characterize the antigenic determinants recognized by the autoantibodies of patients with ocular cicatricial pemphigoid (OCP). OCP is a subepithelial, blistering, autoimmune disease that mainly affects the conjunctiva and other mucous membranes. We previously demonstrated that a cDNA clone, isolated from a keratinocyte expression library by using immunoaffinity-purified OCP autoantibody, encoded the cytoplasmic domain of beta 4 integrin subunit. Our subsequent studies showed that sera from all the OCP patients that were tested recognize the human beta 4 integrin subunit. To identify the prevalent epitopes of the anti-beta 4 autoantibodies of OCP, we have used cell lines transfected with vectors encoding a wild-type beta 4 subunit, a tailless beta 4 subunit, or a beta 4 subunit lacking the extracellular domain. Nontransfected cell lines were used as controls. Lysates from these cell lines were analyzed with OCP sera, IgG fractions from OCP sera, and immunoaffinity-purified OCP autoantibodies. Abs to extracellular and cytoplasmic domains of human beta 4 integrin were used as positive controls, whereas normal human sera and normal human IgG fractions were used as negative controls. The reactivity of OCP Abs was determined by using immunoblotting, immunoprecipitation, and FACS analysis. The results of this study indicate that OCP sera, OCP IgG fractions, and immunoaffinity-purified OCP autoantibodies react with the intracellular and not the extracellular domain of human beta 4 integrin subunit. In vitro cell culture experiments demonstrated that OCP autoantibody binds to the cytoplasm of the cells. The relevance of these findings to the pathogenesis of OCP is discussed.     

The WHO Onchocerciasis Control Programme: retrospect and prospects

The history of onchocerciasis control in Africa and the genesis of the WHO Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) are briefly reviewed. The importance of experience gained in anti-locust campaigns in helping to plan the OCP is stressed. Members of the Simulium damnosum species complex are the vectors of onchocerciasis, which OCP is controlling with insecticide treatments on the stretches of rivers where the Simulium breed. Migrations of flies have been responsible for reinfestations of controlled areas and the spread of insecticide resistance. The management of these problems and related research are described, but it is emphasized that despite setbacks OCP is achieving its aims. A strategy for the future is outlined: vector control supplemented by chemotherapy is expected to continue until the year 2004.     

Onchocerciasis control: Moving towards the millennium

The recognition of onchocerciasis as a major public health problem in the savanna belts of West Africa resulted in the establishment of the Onchocerciasis Control Programme (OCP) in 1974. Control was initially based on vector control by weekly larviciding. The OCP is now in transition towards its final phase in which repeated treatment with ivermectin, a safe and effective microfilaricide, is incorporated with vector control, or in certain circumstances is used alone. Ivermectin distribution hingeing on sustainable community systems is the basis of a new programme in endemic African countries outside the OCP and in the Americas. David Molyneux and John Davies describe the latest trends and developments related to onchocerciasis control.     

Variational data assimilation with epidemic models

Mathematical modelling is playing an increasing role in developing an understanding of the dynamics of communicable disease and assisting the construction and implementation of intervention strategies. The threat of novel emergent pathogens in human and animal hosts implies the requirement for methods that can robustly estimate epidemiological parameters and provide forecasts. Here, a technique called variational data assimilation is introduced as a means of optimally melding dynamic epidemic models with epidemiological observations and data to provide forecasts and parameter estimates. Using data from a simulated epidemic process the method is used to estimate the start time of an epidemic, to provide a forecast of future epidemic behaviour and estimate the basic reproductive ratio. A feature of the method is that it uses a basic continuous-time SIR model, which is often the first point of departure for epidemiological modelling during the early stages of an outbreak. The method is illustrated by application to data gathered during an outbreak of influenza in a school environment.     

Impact of ivermectin on onchocerciasis transmission: assessing the empirical evidence that repeated ivermectin mass treatments may lead to elimination/eradication in West-Africa

BACKGROUND: The Onchocerciasis Control Program (OCP) in West Africa has been closed down at the end of 2002. All subsequent control will be transferred to the participating countries and will almost entirely be based on periodic mass treatment with ivermectin. This makes the question whether elimination of infection or eradication of onchocerciasis can be achieved using this strategy of critical importance. This study was undertaken to explore this issue. METHODS: An empirical approach was adopted in which a comprehensive analysis was undertaken of available data on the impact of more than a decade of ivermectin treatment on onchocerciasis infection and transmission. Relevant entomological and epidemiological data from 14 river basins in the OCP and one basin in Cameroon were reviewed. Areas were distinguished by frequency of treatment (6-monthly or annually), endemicity level and additional control measures such as vector control. Assessment of results were in terms of epidemiological and entomological parameters, and as a measure of inputs, therapeutic and geographical coverage rates were used. RESULTS: In all of the river basins studied, ivermectin treatment sharply reduced prevalence and intensity of infection. Significant transmission, however, is still ongoing in some basins after 10-12 years of ivermectin treatment. In other basins, transmission may have been interrupted, but this needs to be confirmed by in-depth evaluations. In one mesoendemic basin, where 20 rounds of four-monthly treatment reduced prevalence of infection to levels as low as 2-3%, there was significant recrudescence of infection within a few years after interruption of treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Ivermectin treatment has been very successful in eliminating onchocerciasis as a public health problem. However, the results presented in this paper make it almost certain that repeated ivermectin mass treatment will not lead to the elimination of transmission of onchocerciasis from West Africa. Data on 6-monthly treatments are not sufficient to draw definitive conclusions.     

Tumor necrosis factor-alpha increases circulating osteoclast precursor numbers by promoting their proliferation and differentiation in the bone marrow through up-regulation of c-Fms expression

Osteoclasts are essential cells for bone erosion in inflammatory arthritis and are derived from cells in the myeloid lineage. Recently, we reported that tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNFalpha) increases the blood osteoclast precursor (OCP) numbers in arthritic patients and animals, which are reduced by anti-TNF therapy, implying that circulating OCPs may have an important role in the pathogenesis of erosive arthritis. The aim of this study is to investigate the mechanism by which TNFalpha induces this increase in OCP frequency. We found that TNFalpha stimulated cell division and conversion of CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo/c-Fms- to CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo/c-Fms+ cells, which was not blocked by neutralizing macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF) antibody. Ex vivo analysis of monocytes demonstrated the following: (i) blood CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo but not CD11b-/Gr-1- cells give rise to osteoclasts when they were cultured with receptor activator NF-kappaB ligand and M-CSF; and (ii) TNF-transgenic mice have a significant increase in blood CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo cells and bone marrow proliferating CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo cells. Administration of TNFalpha to wild type mice induced bone marrow CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo cell proliferation, which was associated with an increase in CD11b+/Gr-1-/lo OCPs in the circulation. Thus, TNFalpha directly stimulates bone marrow OCP genesis by enhancing c-Fms expression. This results in progenitor cell proliferation and differentiation in response to M-CSF, leading to an enlargement of the marrow OCP pool. Increased marrow OCPs subsequently egress to the circulation, forming a basis for elevated OCP frequency. Therefore, the first step of TNF-induced osteoclastogenesis is at the level of OCP genesis in the bone marrow, which represents another layer of regulation to control erosive disease.     

Development of a new version of the Liverpool Malaria Model. II. Calibration and validation for West Africa

Mathematical models have been used to provide an explicit framework for understanding malaria transmission dynamics in human population for over 100 years. With the disease still thriving and threatening to be a major source of death and disability due to changed environmental and socio-economic conditions, it is necessary to make a critical assessment of the existing models, and study their evolution and efficacy in describing the host-parasite biology. In this article, starting from the basic Ross model, the key mathematical models and their underlying features, based on their specific contributions in the understanding of spread and transmission of malaria have been discussed. The first aim of this article is to develop, starting from the basic models, a hierarchical structure of a range of deterministic models of different levels of complexity. The second objective is to elaborate, using some of the representative mathematical models, the evolution of modelling strategies to describe malaria incidence by including the critical features of host-vector-parasite interactions. Emphasis is more on the evolution of the deterministic differential equation based epidemiological compartment models with a brief discussion on data based statistical models. In this comprehensive survey, the approach has been to summarize the modelling activity in this area so that it helps reach a wider range of researchers working on epidemiology, transmission, and other aspects of malaria. This may facilitate the mathematicians to further develop suitable models in this direction relevant to the present scenario, and help the biologists and public health personnel to adopt better understanding of the modelling strategies to control the disease     

Comparative ultrafast spectroscopy and structural analysis of OCP1 and OCP2 from Tolypothrix

The orange carotenoid protein (OCP) is a structurally and functionally modular photoactive protein involved in cyanobacterial photoprotection. Recently, based on bioinformatic analysis and phylogenetic relationships, new families of OCP have been described, OCP2 and OCPx. The first characterization of the OCP2 showed both faster photoconversion and back-conversion, and lower fluorescence quenching of phycobilisomes relative to the well-characterized OCP1. Moreover, OCP2 is not regulated by the fluorescence recovery protein (FRP). In this work, we present a comprehensive study combining ultrafast spectroscopy and structural analysis to compare the photoactivation mechanisms of OCP1 and OCP2 from Tolypothrix PCC 7601. We show that despite significant differences in their functional characteristics, the spectroscopic properties of OCP1 and OCP2 are comparable. This indicates that the OCP functionality is not directly related to the spectroscopic properties of the bound carotenoid. In addition, the structural analysis by X-ray footprinting reveals that, overall, OCP1 and OCP2 have grossly the same photoactivation mechanism. However, the OCP2 is less reactive to radiolytic labeling, suggesting that the protein is less flexible than OCP1. This observation could explain fast photoconversion of OCP2.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling for Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”—which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention—we present here principles of “best practice” for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.     

Transmission assumptions generate conflicting predictions in host-vector disease models: a case study in West Nile virus

This review synthesizes the conflicting outbreak predictions generated by different biological assumptions in host–vector disease models. It is motivated by the North American outbreak of West Nile virus, an emerging infectious disease that has prompted at least five dynamical modelling studies. Mathematical models have long proven successful in investigating the dynamics and control of infectious disease systems. The underlying assumptions in these epidemiological models determine their mathematical structure, and therefore influence their predictions. A crucial assumption is the host–vector interaction encapsulated in the disease-transmission term, and a key prediction is the basic reproduction number, R ₀. We connect these two model elements by demonstrating how the choice of transmission term qualitatively and quantitatively alters R ₀ and therefore alters predicted disease dynamics and control implications. Whereas some transmission terms predict that reducing the host population will reduce disease outbreaks, others predict that this will exacerbate infection risk. These conflicting predictions are reconciled by understanding that different transmission terms apply biologically only at certain population densities, outside which they can generate erroneous predictions. For West Nile virus, R ₀ estimates for six common North American bird species indicate that all would be effective outbreak hosts.     

Lack of effect of ovarian cycle and oral contraceptives on baroreceptor and nonbaroreceptor control of sympathetic nerve activity in healthy women

Endogenous and exogenous female hormones regulate sympathetic nerve activity (SNA) in animal models, but their impact in humans is controversial. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the ovarian cycle and oral contraceptive pills (OCPs) on SNA. We hypothesized that the effects of endogenous hormones were baroreflex (BR)-mediated and that these cyclical changes in BR control were blunted by OCPs. Furthermore, we hypothesized that the nocturnal fall in blood pressure (BP) ("dipping"), which is sympathetically mediated, also varied with the ovarian cycle. In 23 healthy females (13 OCP users, 10 age-matched, no OCPs), SNA was recorded (microneurography) at rest, during BR activation/deactivation, and cold pressor test (CPT) during low and high hormonal phases. Furthermore, 24-h BP monitoring was performed during low and high hormonal phases. SNA was lower during the low vs. high hormone phase in non-OCP users (17.3 ± 2.4 vs. 25.4 ± 3.2 bursts/min, P < 0.001) but was not different between phases in OCP users [15.5 ± 1.7 vs. 16.6 ± 2.0 bursts/min, P = not significant (NS)]. BR control of SNA was not different during the hormone phases in either group [SNA (total activity/min) mean slope %change from baseline, no OCP users, low vs. high hormone phase 35.4 ± 6.2 vs. 29.6 ± 3.4%, P = NS and OCP users, low vs. high hormone phase 35.7 ± 3.9 vs. 33.5 ± 3.5%, P = NS]. SNA activation during CPT was not impacted by hormonal phase or OCP use. Finally, nondipping was not different between OCP users and nonusers, although there was a trend for nondipping to occur more frequently in the OCP users. SNA varies during the ovarian cycle in women in the absence of OCPs. This modulation cannot be attributed to cyclical changes in the BR sensitivity.     

A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir

Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.