The relationship of climatological variables to selected vital statistics

Correlations were examined between 10 climatological variables and 8 types of death rate for the 143 largest Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the USA. Most of the relationships could be attributed to population factors such as proportion of foreign stock and median age in the areas. The data support weather conditions as possible causal factors in fatal heart attacks and accidents only.     

Using statistics to design and estimate vital rates in matrix population models for a perennial herb

Matrix population models are widely used to assess population status and to inform management decisions. Despite existing theories for building such models, model construction is often partially based on expert opinion. So far, model structure has received relatively little attention, although it may affect estimates of population dynamics. Here, we assessed the consequences of two published matrix structures (a 4 × 4 matrix based on expert opinion and a 10 × 10 matrix based on statistical modeling) for estimates of vital rates and stochastic population dynamics of the long-lived herb Astragalus scaphoides. We explored the ways in which choice of model structure alters the accuracy (i.e., mean) and precision (i.e., variance) of predicted population dynamics. We found that model structure had a negligible effect on the accuracy and precision of vital rates and stochastic stage distribution. However, the 10 × 10 matrix produced lower estimates of stochastic population growth rates than the 4 × 4 matrix, and more accurately predicted the observed trends in population abundance for three out of four study populations. Moreover, estimates of realized variation in population growth rate due to fluctuations in population stage structure over time were occasionally sensitive to matrix structure, suggesting differential roles of transient dynamics. Our study indicates that statistical modeling for choosing categories in matrix models might be preferable over expert opinion to accurately predict population trends and can provide a more objective way for model construction when the biological knowledge of the species is limited.     

Comparative vital statistics along the pastoral nomadism-sedentarism continuum

Vital statistics on pastoral nomadic and sedentarizing nomadic societies are by-and-large non-existent. Such information is highly important for both academic and policy-making reasons as pastoral nomadism as a mode of life is disappearing. This paper attempts to gather and present as much information as possible on crude birth and death rates and natural increase rates for various pastoral nomadic societies in different African and Middle Eastern countries. The information is arranged by a subdivision into nomads, seminomads, and sedentarized nomads. A summarization of this information suggests a possible pattern by which birth rates rise, death rates fall (but may rise in certain circumstances), and natural increase rates rise along the nomadism-sedentarism continuum. Such a possible pattern has several policy implications for governments assessing the needs of a nomadic society undergoing a process of change in its socio-ecological relationships.This article was written while the author was a visiting scholar at the Department of Geography at the University of California. The author wishes to thank Nga and Allen Scott and Melanine M. Patton, as well as two anonymous referees, for their assistance and suggestions for this paper.     

Little tern breeding success in artificial and natural habitats: modelling population growth under uncertain vital rates

As a consequence of habitat loss, breeding in man-made habitats has become increasingly common for many coastal breeding bird species. While artificial sites provide valuable substitutes, they may also be more attractive, and importantly, differ in quality from natural sites. Therefore, information on habitat specific breeding success and their potential for supporting stable populations are needed. We compared little tern (Sternula albifrons) breeding success (nest and hatching success) between natural habitat (sandy beaches) and artificial port habitat at Bothnian Bay, Finland from 2006 to 2011. We further reviewed published estimates on pre-fledging and adult survival for little terns and least terns (Sternula antillarum), and used these ranges to estimate plausible parameter spaces for population growth rates given our estimates of breeding success. Nest success was among the highest reported for little terns in the artificial habitat (82 %) while being lower in the natural habitat (58 %). This difference may have resulted from differences in colony sizes and levels of disturbance. Hatching success did not differ significantly, but the percentage of successful nests containing unhatched eggs was twice as high in the natural habitat. The parameter spaces for population growth rates indicated that the artificial habitat has good potential to sustain stable populations (66 % positive growth rate) while for the natural habitat this potential was lower (37 % positive growth rate). While our results suggest that artificial habitats can be very productive breeding sites for habitat deprived tern populations, management should concentrate on improving both habitats with emphasis on natural sites.     

The effect of skewed distributions of vital statistics on growth of age-structured populations

Given that the variance of vital statistics can influence population projections, it seems reasonable that positive skew as observed for the distribution of larval survivorship of spruce budworms might also have a significant effect on stochastic projections of population growth. Simulations of population growth, using variable survivorship for a single age class, demonstrate that shape of the distribution of survivorship influences the outcome of stochastic population growth, and therefore is important for evolutionary and ecological theory. Unfortunately, empirical distributions of survivorships or fecundities for single life history stages are rare in the current literature.     

Density-dependent vital rates and their population dynamic consequences

We explore a set of simple, nonlinear, two-stage models that allow us to compare the effects of density dependence on population dynamics among different kinds of life cycles. We characterize the behavior of these models in terms of their equilibria, bifurcations, and nonlinear dynamics, for a wide range of parameters. Our analyses lead to several generalizations about the effects of life history and density dependence on population dynamics. Among these are: (1) iteroparous life histories are more likely to be stable than semelparous life histories; (2) an increase in juvenile survivorship tends to be stabilizing; (3) density-dependent adult survival cannot control population growth when reproductive output is high; (4) density-dependent reproduction is more likely to cause chaotic dynamics than density dependence in other vital rates; and (5) changes in development rate have only small effects on bifurcation patterns. Received: 12 April 1999 / Published online: 3 August 2000     

Buffering and plasticity in vital rates of oldfield rodents

1. Under the hypothesis of environmental buffering, populations are expected to minimize the variance of the most influential vital rates; however, this may not be a universal principle. Species with a life span <1 year may be less likely to exhibit buffering because of temporal or seasonal variability in vital rate sensitivities. Further, plasticity in vital rates may be adaptive for species in a variable environment with reliable cues. 2. We tested for environmental buffering and plasticity in vital rates using stage-structured matrix models from long-term data sets in four species of grassland rodents. We used periodic matrices to estimate stochastic elasticity for each vital rate and then tested for correlations with a standardized coefficient of variation for each rate. 3. We calculated stochastic elasticities for individual months to test for an association between increased reproduction and the influence of reproduction, relative to survival, on the population growth rate. 4. All species showed some evidence of buffering. The elasticity of vital rates of Peromyscus leucopus (Rafinesque, 1818), Sigmodon hispidus Say & Ord, 1825 and Microtus ochrogaster (Wagner, 1842) was negatively related to vital rate CV. Elasticity and vital rate CV were negatively related in Peromyscus maniculatus (Wagner, 1845), but the relationship was not statistically significant. Peromyscus leucopus and M. ochrogaster showed plasticity in vital rates; reproduction was higher following months where elasticity for reproduction exceeded that of survival. 5. Our results suggest that buffering is common in species with fast life histories; however, some populations that exhibit buffering are capable of responding to short-term variability in environmental conditions through reproductive plasticity.     

A juvenile-adult model with periodic vital rates

A global branch of positive cycles is shown to exist for a general discrete time, juvenile-adult model with periodically varying coefficients. The branch bifurcates from the extinction state at a critical value of the mean, inherent fertility rate. In comparison to the autonomous system with the same mean fertility rate, the critical bifurcation value can either increase or decrease with the introduction of periodicities. Thus, periodic oscillations in vital parameter can be either advantageous or deleterious. A determining factor is the phase relationship among the oscillations in the inherent fertility and survival rates.Research supported by NSF grant DMS-0414212.     

Low demographic variability in wild primate populations: fitness impacts of variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates

In a stochastic environment, long-term fitness can be influenced by variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates (survival and fertility). Yet no study of an animal population has parsed the contributions of these three aspects of variability to long-term fitness. We do so using a unique database that includes complete life-history information for wild-living individuals of seven primate species that have been the subjects of long-term (22-45 years) behavioral studies. Overall, the estimated levels of vital rate variation had only minor effects on long-term fitness, and the effects of vital rate covariation and serial correlation were even weaker. To explore why, we compared estimated variances of adult survival in primates with values for other vertebrates in the literature and found that adult survival is significantly less variable in primates than it is in the other vertebrates. Finally, we tested the prediction that adult survival, because it more strongly influences fitness in a constant environment, will be less variable than newborn survival, and we found only mixed support for the prediction. Our results suggest that wild primates may be buffered against detrimental fitness effects of environmental stochasticity by their highly developed cognitive abilities, social networks, and broad, flexible diets.     

Building integral projection models with nonindependent vital rates

Population dynamics are functions of several demographic processes including survival, reproduction, somatic growth, and maturation. The rates or probabilities for these processes can vary by time, by location, and by individual. These processes can co‐vary and interact to varying degrees, e.g., an animal can only reproduce when it is in a particular maturation state. Population dynamics models that treat the processes as independent may yield somewhat biased or imprecise parameter estimates, as well as predictions of population abundances or densities. However, commonly used integral projection models (IPMs) typically assume independence across these demographic processes. We examine several approaches for modelling between process dependence in IPMs and include cases where the processes co‐vary as a function of time (temporal variation), co‐vary within each individual (individual heterogeneity), and combinations of these (temporal variation and individual heterogeneity). We compare our methods to conventional IPMs, which treat vital rates independent, using simulations and a case study of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). In particular, our results indicate that correlation between vital rates can moderately affect variability of some population‐level statistics. Therefore, including such dependent structures is generally advisable when fitting IPMs to ascertain whether or not such between vital rate dependencies exist, which in turn can have subsequent impact on population management or life‐history evolution.