A hierarchical Bayesian Beta regression approach to study the effects of geographical genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation on species distribution range shifts

Global climate change (GCC) may be causing distribution range shifts in many organisms worldwide. Multiple efforts are currently focused on the development of models to better predict distribution range shifts due to GCC. We addressed this issue by including intraspecific genetic structure and spatial autocorrelation (SAC) of data in distribution range models. Both factors reflect the joint effect of ecoevolutionary processes on the geographical heterogeneity of populations. We used a collection of 301 georeferenced accessions of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana in its Iberian Peninsula range, where the species shows strong geographical genetic structure. We developed spatial and nonspatial hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs) to depict current and future distribution ranges for the four genetic clusters detected. We also compared the performance of HBMs with Maxent (a presence‐only model). Maxent and nonspatial HBMs presented some shortcomings, such as the loss of accessions with high genetic admixture in the case of Maxent and the presence of residual SAC for both. As spatial HBMs removed residual SAC, these models showed higher accuracy than nonspatial HBMs and handled the spatial effect on model outcomes. The ease of modelling and the consistency among model outputs for each genetic cluster was conditioned by the sparseness of the populations across the distribution range. Our HBMs enrich the toolbox of software available to evaluate GCC‐induced distribution range shifts by considering both genetic heterogeneity and SAC, two inherent properties of any organism that should not be overlooked.     

Phylogeography and paleodistribution models of a widespread birch (Betula platyphylla Suk.) across East Asia: Multiple refugia,multidirectional expansion,and heterogeneous genetic pattern

Widespread tree species cover large geographical areas and play important roles in various vegetation types. Understanding how these species responded to historical climatic changes is important for understanding community assembly mechanisms with evolutionary and conservation implications. However, the location of refugial areas and postglacial history of widespread trees in East Asia remain poorly known. We combined microsatellite data (63 populations, 1756 individuals) and ecological niche modeling to examine the range‐wide population diversity, genetic structure, and historical demography of a pioneer tree species, Asian white birch (Betula platyphylla Suk.) across East Asia. We found a north‐to‐south trend of declining genetic diversity and five clusters, corresponding to geographical regions. Different clusters were inferred to have diverged through Pleistocene climatic oscillations and have different expansion routes, leading to genetic admixture in some populations. Ecological niche models indicated that the distribution of B. platyphylla during the last glacial maximum still had a large latitude span with slight shifts toward southeast, and northern populations had more variable distribution ranges than those in the south during later climatic oscillations. Our results reflect the relatively stable distribution through the last glacial–interglacial cycles and recent multidirectional expansion of B. platyphylla, providing new hypotheses for the response pattern of widespread tree species to climate change. The gradual genetic pattern from northeast to southwest and alternative distribution dynamics possibly resulted from environmental differences caused by latitude and topographic heterogeneity.     

High‐throughput sequencing and graph‐based cluster analysis facilitate microsatellite development from a highly complex genome

Despite recent advances in high‐throughput sequencing, difficulties are often encountered when developing microsatellites for species with large and complex genomes. This probably reflects the close association in many species of microsatellites with cryptic repetitive elements. We therefore developed a novel approach for isolating polymorphic microsatellites from the club‐legged grasshopper (Gomphocerus sibiricus), an emerging quantitative genetic and behavioral model system. Whole genome shotgun Illumina MiSeq sequencing was used to generate over three million 300 bp paired‐end reads, of which 67.75% were grouped into 40,548 clusters within RepeatExplorer. Annotations of the top 468 clusters, which represent 60.5% of the reads, revealed homology to satellite DNA and a variety of transposable elements. Evaluating 96 primer pairs in eight wild‐caught individuals, we found that primers mined from singleton reads were six times more likely to amplify a single polymorphic microsatellite locus than primers mined from clusters. Our study provides experimental evidence in support of the notion that microsatellites associated with repetitive elements are less likely to successfully amplify. It also reveals how advances in high‐throughput sequencing and graph‐based repetitive DNA analysis can be leveraged to isolate polymorphic microsatellites from complex genomes.     

Chloroplast DNA phylogeography of the endangered Japanese red maple (Acer pycnanthum): the spatial configuration of wetlands shapes genetic diversity

Aim Japanese red maple (Acer pycnanthum K. Koch) is an endangered species which grows in discrete wetland ecosystems within a limited geographical range. It is an important relic of geologic time, an endemic of unique wetland ecosystems and an indicator of hotspots of plant species diversity. However, information on its genetic characteristics across its range is lacking. Our aim was to determine the genetic structure and diversity of the species and make recommendations for conservation. Location Wetlands in central Honshu Island, Japan. Methods We collected leaf samples from 400 individuals of A. pycnanthum in 30 populations, extracted total DNA from each and sequenced three non‐coding regions of chloroplast DNA. Results We identified nine haplotypes. High haplotype diversity (0.81) and the occurrence of rare haplotypes in eight distant populations suggest that wetlands provided multiple, adequate‐size refuges during the Last Glacial Maximum. We found only one to four haplotypes within populations. The high degree of differentiation (G_ST = 0.83) implies that gene flow by seeds among populations is restricted. Eight populations demonstrated a positive contribution to the total genetic diversity owing to occurrence of rare and private haplotypes. Such populations are concentrated in the south‐western part of the species distribution. According to the spatial autocorrelation analysis, there were significant spatial clusters of populations, which were characterized by similar haplotype composition. Using the haplotype distribution, samova and barrier detected nearly identical genetic boundaries. Main conclusion In spite of the species’ limited geographical range, we identified a relatively high number of haplotypes and a clear geographical structure. We propose six management units, which can be used for future conservation activities, such as introduction of new individuals for on‐site conservation projects and seed collection for ex situ conservation.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

Population genetic structure and demographic history of the lone star tick,Amblyomma americanum (Ixodida: Ixodidae): New evidence supporting old records

Range expansions are a potential outcome of changes in habitat suitability, which commonly result as a consequence of climate change. Hypotheses on such changes in the geographic distribution of a certain species can be evaluated using population genetic structure and demography. In this study we explore the population genetic structure, genetic variability, demographic history of, and habitat suitability for Amblyomma americanum, a North American tick species that is a known vector of several pathogenic microorganisms. We used a double digestion restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing technique (dd‐RAD seq) and discovered 8,181 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 189 ticks from across the geographic range of the species. Genetic diversity was low, particularly when considering the broad geographic range of this species. The edge populations were less diverse than populations belonging to the historic range, possibly indicative of a range expansion, but this hypothesis was not statistically supported by a test based on genetic data. Nonetheless, moderate levels of population structure and substructure were detected between geographic regions. For New England, demographic and species distribution models support a scenario where A. americanum was present in more northern locations in the past, underwent a bottleneck, and subsequently recovered. These results are consistent with a hypothesis that this species is re‐establishing in this area, rather than one focused on range expansion from the south. This hypothesis is consistent with old records describing the presence of A. americanum in the northeastern US in the early colonial period.     

Northern range expansion of European populations of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi is associated with global warming–correlated genetic admixture and population‐specific temperature adaptations

Poleward range expansions are observed for an increasing number of species, which may be an effect of global warming during the past decades. However, it is still not clear in how far these expansions reflect simple geographical shifts of species ranges, or whether new genetic adaptations play a role as well. Here, we analyse the expansion of the wasp spider Argiope bruennichi into Northern Europe during the last century. We have used a range‐wide sampling of contemporary populations and historical specimens from museums to trace the phylogeography and genetic changes associated with the range shift. Based on the analysis of mitochondrial, microsatellite and SNP markers, we observe a higher level of genetic diversity in the expanding populations, apparently due to admixture of formerly isolated lineages. Using reciprocal transplant experiments for testing overwintering tolerance, as well as temperature preference and tolerance tests in the laboratory, we find that the invading spiders have possibly shifted their temperature niche. This may be a key adaptation for survival in Northern latitudes. The museum samples allow a reconstruction of the invasion's genetic history. A first, small‐scale range shift started around 1930, in parallel with the onset of global warming. A more massive invasion of Northern Europe associated with genetic admixture and morphological changes occurred in later decades. We suggest that the latter range expansion into far Northern latitudes may be a consequence of the admixture that provided the genetic material for adaptations to new environmental regimes. Hence, global warming could have facilitated the initial admixture of populations and this resulted in genetic lineages with new habitat preferences.     

Distribution and speciation in marine intertidal tardigrades: testing the roles of climatic and geographical isolation

Aim To analyse the importance of climatic and geographical isolation in determining the patterns of speciation and distribution of species within the tardigrade genus Echiniscoides. Location Marine intertidal zone, globally. Methods DNA was extracted from 465 individual tardigrades from 48 localities world‐wide. The tardigrades were divided into clusters using several distance‐based criteria. The phylogeny of these clusters was estimated with Bayesian analyses. The relationships between genetic distance and substrate, climate, and geographical distance were tested with a new improved Mantel test which incorporates phylogenetic uncertainties by analysing the raw tree data instead of the averaged tree. Results Approximately 40 clusters, each probably corresponding to species, were recovered from the genetic analysis; the number of clusters fluctuated depending on the criterion used for cluster delimitation. Each cluster had a limited temperature range and all clusters were confined to single oceans under all realistic criteria for cluster delimitation. Apart from a tropical cluster, each cluster occurred only in one hemisphere. Occurrence on different substrata was not correlated with genetic distance between clusters. Both geographical distance and climate were correlated with genetic distance; however, the correlation between geographical and genetic distance disappeared when the non‐independence of climatic and geographical distance were controlled for. Main conclusions The distribution of individual species of Echiniscoides is limited by climate and geographical distance. Distance does not appear to be a major factor influencing phylogeny in this genus, but ecological speciation along a temperature gradient appears to be important.     

Characterization of polyploid wheat genomic diversity using a high‐density 90 000 single nucleotide polymorphism array

High‐density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays are a powerful tool for studying genomic patterns of diversity, inferring ancestral relationships between individuals in populations and studying marker–trait associations in mapping experiments. We developed a genotyping array including about 90 000 gene‐associated SNPs and used it to characterize genetic variation in allohexaploid and allotetraploid wheat populations. The array includes a significant fraction of common genome‐wide distributed SNPs that are represented in populations of diverse geographical origin. We used density‐based spatial clustering algorithms to enable high‐throughput genotype calling in complex data sets obtained for polyploid wheat. We show that these model‐free clustering algorithms provide accurate genotype calling in the presence of multiple clusters including clusters with low signal intensity resulting from significant sequence divergence at the target SNP site or gene deletions. Assays that detect low‐intensity clusters can provide insight into the distribution of presence–absence variation (PAV) in wheat populations. A total of 46 977 SNPs from the wheat 90K array were genetically mapped using a combination of eight mapping populations. The developed array and cluster identification algorithms provide an opportunity to infer detailed haplotype structure in polyploid wheat and will serve as an invaluable resource for diversity studies and investigating the genetic basis of trait variation in wheat.     

Scale‐dependent post‐establishment spread and genetic diversity in an invading mollusc in South America

Aims Our study aimed to characterize the dispersal dynamics and population genetic structure of the introduced golden mussel Limnoperna fortunei throughout its invaded range in South America and to determine how different dispersal methods, that is, human‐mediated dispersal and downstream natural dispersal, contribute to genetic variation among populations. Location Paraná–Uruguay–Río de la Plata watershed in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. Methods We performed genetic analyses based on a comprehensive sampling strategy encompassing 22 populations (N = 712) throughout the invaded range in South America, using the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene and eight polymorphic nuclear microsatellites. We employed both population genetics and phylogenetic analyses to clarify the dispersal dynamics and population genetic structure. Results We detected relatively high genetic differentiation between populations (F_ST = ?0.041 to 0.111 for COI, ?0.060 to 0.108 for microsatellites) at both fine and large geographical scales. Bayesian clustering and three‐dimensional factorial correspondence analyses consistently revealed two genetically distinct clusters, highlighting genetic discontinuities in the invaded range. Results of all genetic analyses suggest ship‐mediated ‘jump’ dispersal as the dominant mode of spread of golden mussels in South America, while downstream natural dispersal has had limited effects on contemporary genetic patterns. Main conclusions Our study provides new evidence that post‐establishment dispersal dynamics and genetic patterns vary across geographical scales. While ship‐mediated ‘jump’ dispersal dominates post‐establishment spread of golden mussels in South America, once colonies become established in upstream locations, larvae produced may be advected downstream to infill patchy distributions. Moreover, genetic structuring at fine geographical scales, especially within the same drainages, suggests a further detailed understanding of dynamics of larval dispersal and settlement in different water systems. Knowledge of the mechanisms by which post‐establishment spread occurs can, in some cases, be used to limit dispersal of golden mussels and other introduced species.     

Phylogeography of Eastern Polynesian sandalwood (Santalum insulare), an endangered tree species from the Pacific: a study based on chloroplast microsatellites

Aim Patterns of genetic variation within forest species are poorly documented in island ecosystems. The distribution of molecular variation for Santalum insulare, an endangered tree species endemic to the islands of eastern Polynesia, was analysed using chloroplast microsatellite markers. The aims were to quantify the genetic diversity; to assess the genetic structure; and to analyse the geographical distribution of the diversity within and between archipelagoes. The ultimate goal was to pre‐define evolutionary significant units (ESUs) for conservation and restoration programmes of this species, which constitutes a natural resource on small, isolated islands. Location Eleven populations, each representative of one island, covering most of the natural occurrence of S. insulare were sampled: five populations from the Marquesas Archipelago; three from the Society Archipelago; and three from the Cook–Austral Archipelago. These South Pacific islands are known for their high degree of plant endemism, and for their human occupation by Polynesian migrations. The extensive exploitation of sandalwood by Europeans nearly 200 years ago for its fragrant heartwood, used overseas in incense, carving and essential oil production for perfume, has dramatically reduced the population size of this species. Methods We used chloroplast microsatellites, which provide useful information in phylogeographical forest tree analyses. They are maternally inherited in most angiosperms and present high polymorphism. Among the 499 individuals sampled, 345 were genotyped successfully. Classical models of population genetics were used to assess diversity parameters and phylogenetic relationships between populations. Results Four microsatellite primers showed 16 alleles and their combinations provided 17 chlorotypes, of which four exhibited a frequency > 10% in the total population. The gene diversity index was high for the total population (H_e = 0.82) and varied among archipelagoes from H_e = 0.40 to 0.67. Genetic structure is characterized by high levels of differentiation between archipelagoes (36% of total variation) and between islands, but differentiation between islands varied according to archipelago. The relationship between genetic and geographical distance confirms the low gene flow between archipelagoes. The minimum spanning tree of chlorotypes exhibits three clusters corresponding to the geographical distribution in the three main archipelagoes. Main conclusions The high level of diversity within the species was explained by an ancient presence on and around the hotspot traces currently occupied by young islands. Diversity in the species has enabled survival in a range of habitats. Relationships between islands show that the Cook–Austral chlorotype cluster constitutes a link between the Marquesas and the Society Islands. This can be explained by the evolution of the island systems over millions of years, and extinction of intermediary populations on the Tuamotu Islands following subsidence there. Based on the unrooted neighbour‐joining tree and on the genetic structure, we propose four ESUs to guide the conservation and population restoration of Polynesian Sandalwood: the Society Archipelago; the Marquesas Archipelago; Raivavae Island; and Rapa Island.     

Effects of Pleistocene climate changes on species ranges and evolutionary processes in the Neotropical Atlantic Forest

The effects of global glaciations on the distribution of organisms is an essential element of many diversification models. However, the empirical evidence supporting this idea is mixed, in particular with respect to explaining tropical forest evolution. In the present study, we evaluated the impacts of range shifts associated with Pleistocene global glacial cycles on the evolution of tropical forests. In particular, we tested the predictions: (1) that population genetic structure increases with fragmentation variation between the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and also (2) with geographical range instability; and (3) that genetic diversity increases with range stability and (4) decreases with fragmentation variation between periods. To address our predictions, we studied population genetic structures and modelled present and past distributions of 15 Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic birds. Afterwards, we evaluated the relationship of population genetic parameters with metrics of species range shifts between the present and the LGM. We found that geographical ranges of AF birds changed in concert with Pleistocene glacial cycles but, unexpectedly, our findings suggest the novel idea that ranges during glacial maxima were slightly larger on average, as well as equally fragmented and displaced from the interglacial ranges. Our findings suggest that range shifts over the late Pleistocene impacted on the diversification of forest organisms, although they did not show that those range shifts had a strong effect. We found that a combination of fragmentation variation across time, small current range size, and range stability increased population genetic structure. However, neither fragmentation, nor range stability affected genetic diversity. Our study showed that evolutionary responses to range shifts across AF birds have a high variance, which could explain the mixed support given by single‐species studies to the action of Pleistocene range shifts on population evolution.     

Cryptic biodiversity and phylogeographical patterns in a snapping shrimp species complex

Recent investigations suggest that marine biodiversity may be much higher than earlier estimates, and an important hidden source of diversity in marine systems is the phenomenon of cryptic species complexes. Such complexes are informative models for research into the evolutionary processes that govern species compositions of marine fauna. The snapping shrimp genera Alpheus and Synalpheus are known to harbour large numbers of cryptic species; here, I characterize the genetic structure of the Alpheus armillatus species complex in the northern Caribbean, west Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico using mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data. Over this geographical region, the complex harbours at least three lineages that are probable reproductively isolated species; all major lineages diverged subsequent to the close of the Isthmus of Panama. Only one lineage was present in the Gulf of Mexico, whereas outside the Gulf of Mexico there was no clear tendency for lineage dominance by geographical region, as most sites were populated by shrimp from at least two lineages. However, within each lineage, there was strong evidence of population genetic differentiation between geographical regions. All lineages showed strong signals of demographic expansion, and one lineage showed sharply reduced genetic diversity, suggestive of past population bottlenecks or recently founded populations with low gene flow from other sites. These results show that evolutionary processes leading to divergence and speciation have been common and recent in the snapping shrimp, and suggest that connectivity among shrimp populations may be limited.     

Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models

Aim To describe and explain geographical patterns of false absence and false presence prediction errors that occur when describing current plant species ranges with species distribution models. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated species distribution models (generalized linear models) using a set of climatic variables and gridded distribution data for 1065 vascular plant species from the Atlas Florae Europaeae. We used randomly selected subsets for each species with a constant prevalence of 0.5, modelled the distribution 1000 times, calculated weighted averages of the model parameters and used these to predict the current distribution in Europe. Using a threshold of 0.5, we derived presence/absence maps. Comparing observed and modelled species distribution, we calculated the false absence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as absent, and the false presence rates, i.e. species wrongly modelled as present, on a 50 × 50 km grid. Subsequently, we related both error rates to species range properties, land use and topographic variability within grid cells by means of simultaneous autoregressive models to correct for spatial autocorrelation. Results Grid‐cell‐specific error rates were not evenly distributed across Europe. The mean false absence rate was 0.16 ± 0.12 (standard deviation) and the mean false presence rate was 0.22 ± 0.13. False absence rates were highest in central Spain, the Alps and parts of south‐eastern Europe, while false presence rates were highest in northern Spain, France, Italy and south‐eastern Europe. False absence rates were high when range edges of species accumulated within a grid cell and when the intensity of human land use was high. False presence rates were positively associated with relative occurrence area and accumulation of range edges. Main conclusions Predictions for various species are not only accompanied by species‐specific but also by grid‐cell‐specific errors. The latter are associated with characteristics of the grid cells but also with range characteristics of occurring species. Uncertainties of predictive species distribution models are not equally distributed in space, and we would recommend accompanying maps of predicted distributions with a graphical representation of predictive performance.     

Species formation and geographical range evolution in a genus of Central American cloud forest salamanders (Dendrotriton)

Aim Montane Central America offers an ideal system for testing geographical hypotheses of species diversification. We examined how the complex geological history of Nuclear Central America has shaped the diversification of a genus of cloud‐forest‐inhabiting salamanders (Dendrotriton). We applied parametric models of geographical range evolution to determine the predominant mode of species formation within the genus and to test existing hypotheses of geographical species formation in the region. Location Montane cloud forests of Nuclear Central America. Methods We estimated a species tree for Dendrotriton using a multi‐locus DNA sequence data set and several coalescent methods, and performed molecular dating for divergence events within the genus. We then applied the species‐tree estimate to a likelihood‐based time‐stratified model of geographical range evolution, based on current species distributions and available geological information for Central America. Results Species trees from all methods contain two groups, one corresponding to species from the Sierra de los Cuchumatanes and the other containing all remaining species. In most cases, species formation within the genus involved an even division of the geographical range of the ancestral species between descendant species. The ancestor of extant Dendrotriton species was estimated to have occurred in either the Sierra de los Cuchumatanes or the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, and both of these areas appear to have been important for diversification within the genus. The single species found in the Quaternary‐age Guatemalan volcanic cordillera dispersed to the volcanoes from an older highland area. Main conclusions Models of geographical range evolution, when combined with robust species‐tree estimates, provide insight into the historical biogeography of taxa not available from phylogenies or distributional data alone. Vicariant species formation, rather than peripatric or gradient speciation, appears to have been the dominant process of diversification, with most divergence events occurring within or between ancient highland areas. The apparent dispersal of Dendrotriton to the Quaternary‐age volcanoes raises the possibility that the rich salamander community there is composed of species that dispersed from geologically older areas. The Motagua Valley appears not to have been as important in vicariant species formation within Dendrotriton as it is within other groups.     

Tests of species‐specific models reveal the importance of drought in postglacial range shifts of a Mediterranean‐climate tree: insights from integrative distributional,demographic and coalescent modelling and ABC model selection

Past climate change has caused shifts in species distributions and undoubtedly impacted patterns of genetic variation, but the biological processes mediating responses to climate change, and their genetic signatures, are often poorly understood. We test six species‐specific biologically informed hypotheses about such processes in canyon live oak (Quercus chrysolepis) from the California Floristic Province. These hypotheses encompass the potential roles of climatic niche, niche multidimensionality, physiological trade‐offs in functional traits, and local‐scale factors (microsites and local adaptation within ecoregions) in structuring genetic variation. Specifically, we use ecological niche models (ENMs) to construct temporally dynamic landscapes where the processes invoked by each hypothesis are reflected by differences in local habitat suitabilities. These landscapes are used to simulate expected patterns of genetic variation under each model and evaluate the fit of empirical data from 13 microsatellite loci genotyped in 226 individuals from across the species range. Using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), we obtain very strong support for two statistically indistinguishable models: a trade‐off model in which growth rate and drought tolerance drive habitat suitability and genetic structure, and a model based on the climatic niche estimated from a generic ENM, in which the variables found to make the most important contribution to the ENM have strong conceptual links to drought stress. The two most probable models for explaining the patterns of genetic variation thus share a common component, highlighting the potential importance of seasonal drought in driving historical range shifts in a temperate tree from a Mediterranean climate where summer drought is common.     

Unexpected cryptic species diversity in the widespread coral Seriatopora hystrix masks spatial‐genetic patterns of connectivity

Mounting evidence of cryptic species in a wide range of taxa highlights the need for careful analyses of population genetic data sets to unravel within‐species diversity from potential interspecies relationships. Here, we use microsatellite loci and hierarchical clustering analysis to investigate cryptic diversity in sympatric and allopatric (separated by 450 km) populations of the widespread coral Seriatopora hystrix on the Great Barrier Reef. Structure analyses delimited unique genetic clusters that were confirmed by phylogenetic and extensive population‐level analyses. Each of four sympatric yet distinct genetic clusters detected within S. hystrix demonstrated greater genetic cohesion across regional scales than between genetic clusters within regions (<10 km). Moreover, the magnitude of genetic differentiation between different clusters (>0.620 G”_ST) was similar to the difference between S. hystrix clusters and the congener S. caliendrum (mean G”_ST 0.720). Multiple lines of evidence, including differences in habitat specificity, mitochondrial identity, Symbiodinium associations and morphology, corroborate the nuclear genetic evidence that these distinct clusters constitute different species. Hierarchical clustering analysis combined with more traditional population genetic methods provides a powerful approach for delimiting species and should be regularly applied to ensure that ecological and evolutionary patterns interpreted for single species are not confounded by the presence of cryptic species.     

Genetic inference as a method for modelling occurrence: A viable alternative to visual surveys

Management and conservation require a comprehensive understanding of species distributions and habitat requirements. Reliable species occurrence data are critical in the face of climate change and other anthropogenic activity, but are often difficult to obtain, particularly for wide ranging species. This directly affects ecological models of occurrence and habitat suitability and, in turn, conservation and management decisions. We used generalized linear mixed‐effects models to identify ecological determinants of occurrence for four macropod species (across a region of tropical northern Australia) using a non‐invasive genetic scat approach with and without additional observation records from visual surveys. We show that genetically derived occurrence data, alone, can be used to develop informative ecological models that describe the inter‐specific habitat requirements of macropods. Furthermore, we show that genetic scat surveys of macropods are cheaper and less time consuming to conduct, and tend to provide more occurrence records (and less false absences) than visual surveys. We conclude that indirect surveys using molecular approaches have an important role to play in modelling species' occurrence, and developing future management practices and guidelines to aid species conservation.