Climate‐driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga

The climate‐driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long‐term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool.     

Geographic variation in fitness‐related traits of the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus along the Baltic Sea‐North Sea salinity gradient

In the course of the ongoing global intensification and diversification of human pressures, the study of variation patterns of biological traits along environmental gradients can provide relevant information on the performance of species under shifting conditions. The pronounced salinity gradient, co‐occurrence of multiple stressors, and accelerated rates of change make the Baltic Sea and its transition to North Sea a suitable region for this type of study. Focusing on the bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus, one of the main foundation species on hard‐bottoms of the Baltic Sea, we analyzed the phenotypic variation among populations occurring along 2,000 km of coasts subjected to salinities from 4 to >30 and a variety of other stressors. Morphological and biochemical traits, including palatability for grazers, were recorded at 20 stations along the Baltic Sea and four stations in the North Sea. We evaluated in a common modeling framework the relative contribution of multiple environmental drivers to the observed trait patterns. Salinity was the main and, in some cases, the only environmental driver of the geographic trait variation in F. vesiculosus. The decrease in salinity from North Sea to Baltic Sea stations was accompanied by a decline in thallus size, photosynthetic pigments, and energy storage compounds, and affected the interaction of the alga with herbivores and epibiota. For some traits, drivers that vary locally such as wave exposure, light availability or nutrient enrichment were also important. The strong genetic population structure in this macroalgae might play a role in the generation and maintenance of phenotypic patterns across geographic scales. In light of our results, the desalination process projected for the Baltic Sea could have detrimental impacts on F. vesiculosus in areas close to its tolerance limit, affecting ecosystem functions such as habitat formation, primary production, and food supply.     

Future warming and acidification effects on anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory traits of the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae)

Human‐induced ocean warming and acidification have received increasing attention over the past decade and are considered to have substantial consequences for a broad range of marine species and their interactions. Understanding how these interactions shift in response to climate change is particularly important with regard to foundation species, such as the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus. This macroalga represents the dominant habitat former on coastal rocky substrata of the Baltic Sea, fulfilling functions essential for the entire benthic community. Its ability to withstand extensive fouling and herbivory regulates the associated community and ecosystem dynamics. This study tested the interactive effects of future warming, acidification, and seasonality on the interactions of a marine macroalga with potential foulers and consumers. F. vesiculosus rockweeds were exposed to different combinations of conditions predicted regionally for the year 2100 (+?5°C, +?700 μatm CO₂) using multifactorial long‐term experiments in novel outdoor benthic mesocosms (“Benthocosms”) over 9–12‐week periods in four seasons. Possible shifts in the macroalgal susceptibility to fouling and consumption were tested using consecutive bioassays. Algal susceptibility to fouling and grazing varied substantially among seasons and between treatments. In all seasons, warming predominantly affected anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory interactions while acidification had a subtle nonsignificant influence. Interestingly, anti‐microfouling activity was highest during winter under warming, while anti‐macrofouling and anti‐herbivory activities were highest in the summer under warming. These contrasting findings indicate that seasonal changes in anti‐fouling and anti‐herbivory traits may interact with ocean warming in altering F. vesiculosus community composition in the future.     

Strategies of zooplanktivory shape the dynamics and diversity of littoral plankton communities: a mesocosm approach

Planktivorous fish can exert strong top‐down control on zooplankton communities. By incorporating different feeding strategies, from selective particulate feeding to cruising filter feeding, fish species target distinct prey. In this study, we investigated the effects of two species with different feeding strategies, the three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus (L.)) and roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)), on a low‐diversity brackish water zooplankton community using a 16‐day mesocosm experiment. The experiment was conducted on a small‐bodied spring zooplankton community in high‐nutrient conditions, as well as a large‐bodied summer community in low‐nutrient conditions. Effects were highly dependent on the initial zooplankton community structure and hence seasonal variation. In a small‐bodied community with high predation pressure and no dispersal or migration, the selective particulate‐feeding stickleback depleted the zooplankton community and decreased its diversity more radically than the cruising filter‐feeding roach. Cladocerans rather than copepods were efficiently removed by predation, and their removal caused altered patterns in rotifer abundance. In a large‐bodied summer community with initial high taxonomic and functional diversity, predation pressure was lower and resource availability was high for omnivorous crustaceans preying on other zooplankton. In this community, predation maintained diversity, regardless of predator species. During both experimental periods, predation influenced the competitive relationship between the dominant calanoid copepods, and altered species composition and size structure of the zooplankton community. Changes also occurred to an extent at the level of nontarget prey, such as microzooplankton and rotifers, emphasizing the importance of subtle predation effects. We discuss our results in the context of the adaptive foraging mechanism and relate them to the natural littoral community.     

Present and past depth distribution of bladderwrack (Fucus vesiculosus) in the Baltic Sea

This study aimed to (1) assess the present depth distribution of Fucus vesiculosus in the Baltic Sea and evaluate differences between districts and (2) assess long-term and recent changes in depth distribution and evaluate reasons for such changes. This was done through compilation and analysis of existing data (3356 obs.). Depth limits were shallowest in the Kattegat, the Danish Belts and the Øresund (∼1.5 m on average), located at the entrance of the Baltic Sea and markedly deeper in the central and inner parts of the Baltic (up to ∼4.5 m on average). This increase in depth limits to some extent matched the decline in salinity and may in part be explained by reduced competition when species diversity decreases successively along the Baltic salinity gradient. In the central and inner Baltic Sea, Secchi depths explained part of the variation (16%) in depth limits and the majority (85%) of the variation in maximum attainable depth limits whereas at the entrance of the Baltic Secchi depths explained a negligible part of the variation (∼1%). In most districts, depth limits moved upwards during the 20th century. In many cases this happened during or shortly after the 1960s/1970s, and was most likely due to eutrophication.     

Lateral plate number in low‐plated threespine stickleback: a study of plasticity and heritability

In the threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus model system, phenotypes are often classified into three morphs according to lateral plate number. Morph identity has been shown to be largely genetically determined, but substantial within‐morph variation in plate number exists. In this study, we test whether plate number has a plastic component in response to salinity in the low‐plated morph using a split‐clutch experiment where families were split in two, one half raised in water at 0 and the other at 30 ppt salt. We find a small salinity‐induced plastic effect on plate number in an unexpected direction, opposite to what we predicted: Fish raised in freshwater on average have slightly more plates than fish raised in saltwater. Our results confirm that heritability of plate number is high. Additionally, we find that variance in plate number at the family level can be predicted from other family level traits, which might indicate that epistatic interactions play a role in creating the observed pattern of lateral plate number variation.     

Climate‐driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate‐driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar‐built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low‐plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate‐driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar‐built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing‐water) to lentic (still‐water) habitats, where the low‐plated allele is favoured. The low‐plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate‐driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.     

Computational identification of miRNAs,their targets and functions in three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

An intriguing question in biology is how the evolution of gene regulation is shaped by natural selection in natural populations. Among the many known regulatory mechanisms, regulation of gene expression by microRNAs (miRNAs) is of critical importance. However, our understanding of their evolution in natural populations is limited. Studying the role of miRNAs in three‐spined stickleback, an important natural model for speciation research, may provide new insights into adaptive polymorphisms. However, lack of annotation of miRNA genes in its genome is a bottleneck. To fill this research gap, we used the genome of three‐spined stickleback to predict miRNAs and their targets. We predicted 1486 mature miRNAs using the homology‐based miRNA prediction approach. We then performed functional annotation and enrichment analysis of these targets, which identified over‐represented motifs. Further, a database resource (GAmiRdb) has been developed for dynamically searching miRNAs and their targets exclusively in three‐spined stickleback. Finally, the database was used in two case studies focusing on freshwater adaptation in natural populations. In the first study, we found 44 genomic regions overlapping with predicted miRNA targets. In the second study, we identified two SNPs altering the MRE seed site of sperm‐specific glyceraldehyde‐3‐phosphate gene. These findings highlight the importance of the GAmiRdb knowledge base in understanding adaptive evolution.     

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak,Quercus lobata Née

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate‐based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large‐scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28–1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11–18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion–contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions.     

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.     

Structure and stability of genetic variance–covariance matrices: A Bayesian sparse factor analysis of transcriptional variation in the three‐spined stickleback

The genetic variance–covariance matrix ( G ) is a quantity of central importance in evolutionary biology due to its influence on the rate and direction of multivariate evolution. However, the predictive power of empirically estimated G ‐matrices is limited for two reasons. First, phenotypes are high‐dimensional, whereas traditional statistical methods are tuned to estimate and analyse low‐dimensional matrices. Second, the stability of G to environmental effects and over time remains poorly understood. Using Bayesian sparse factor analysis (BSFG) designed to estimate high‐dimensional G ‐matrices, we analysed levels variation and covariation in 10,527 expressed genes in a large (n = 563) half‐sib breeding design of three‐spined sticklebacks subject to two temperature treatments. We found significant differences in the structure of G between the treatments: heritabilities and evolvabilities were higher in the warm than in the low‐temperature treatment, suggesting more and faster opportunity to evolve in warm (stressful) conditions. Furthermore, comparison of G and its phenotypic equivalent P revealed the latter is a poor substitute of the former. Most strikingly, the results suggest that the expected impact of G on evolvability—as well as the similarity among G ‐matrices—may depend strongly on the number of traits included into analyses. In our results, the inclusion of only few traits in the analyses leads to underestimation in the differences between the G ‐matrices and their predicted impacts on evolution. While the results highlight the challenges involved in estimating G , they also illustrate that by enabling the estimation of large G ‐matrices, the BSFG method can improve predicted evolutionary responses to selection.     

Geographic and host‐mediated population genetic structure in a cestode parasite of the three‐spined stickleback

Comparative studies of genetic diversity and population structure can shed light on the ecological and evolutionary factors that influence host–parasite interactions. Here we examined whether geography, time and genetic variation in Alaskan three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus Linneaus) hosts shape the population genetic structure of the diphyllobothridean cestode parasite Schistocephalus solidus (Müller, 1776). Host lineages and haplotypes were identified by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene, and host population structure was assessed by Bayesian clustering analysis of allelic variation at 11 microsatellite loci. Parasite population structure was characterized according to allelic variation at eight microsatellite loci. Mantel tests and canonical redundancy analysis were conducted to evaluate the proportion of parasite genetic variation attributable to time and geography vs. host lineage, haplotype, and genotypic cluster. Host and parasite population structure were largely discordant across the study area, probably reflecting differences in gene flow, environmental influences external to the host, and genomic admixture among host lineages. We found that geography explained the greatest proportion of parasite genetic variation, but that variation also reflects time, host lineage, and host haplotype. Associations with host haplotypes suggest that one parasite genotypic cluster exhibits a narrower host range, predominantly infecting the most common host haplotypes, whereas the other parasite cluster infects all haplotypes equally, including rare haplotypes. Although experimental infection trials might prove otherwise, distributional differences in hosts preferentially infected by S. solidus could underlie the observed pattern of population structure.     

Insights from ecological niche modeling on the taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐spotted and red‐spotted tokay geckoes (Gekko gecko)

The black‐spotted tokay and the red‐spotted tokay are morphologically distinct and have largely allopatric distributions. The black‐spotted tokay is characterized by a small body size and dark skin with sundry spots, while the red‐spotted tokay has a relatively large body size and red spots. Based on morphological, karyotypic, genetic, and distribution differences, recent studies suggested their species status; however, their classifications remain controversial, and additional data such as ecological niches are necessary to establish firm hypotheses regarding their taxonomic status. We reconstructed their ecological niches models using climatic and geographic data. We then performed niche similarity tests (niche identity and background tests) and point‐based analyses to explore whether ecological differentiation has occurred, and whether such differences are sufficient to explain the maintenance of their separate segments of environmental ranges. We found that both niche models of the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay had a good fit and a robust performance, as indicated by the high area under the curve (AUC) values (“black” = 0.982, SD = ± 0.002, “red” = 0.966 ± 0.02). Significant ecological differentiation across the entire geographic range was found, indicating that the involvement of ecological differentiation is important for species differentiation. Divergence along the environmental axes is highly associated with climatic conditions, with isothermality being important for the “black” form, while temperature seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and annual temperature range together being important for the “red” form. These factors are likely important factors in niche differentiation between the two forms, which result in morphological replacement. Overall, beside morphological and genetic differentiation information, our results contribute to additional insights into taxonomic distinction and niche differentiation between the black‐ and the red‐spotted tokay.     

The role of calcium and predation on plate morph evolution in the three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus)

While the genetic basis to plate morph evolution of the three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) is well described, the environmental variables that select for different plate and spine morphs are incompletely understood. Using replicate populations of three‐spined sticklebacks on North Uist, Scotland, we previously investigated the role of predation pressure and calcium limitation on the adaptive evolution of stickleback morphology and behavior. While dissolved calcium proved a significant predictor of plate and spine morph, predator abundance did not. Ecol. Evol., xxx, 2014 and xxx performed a comparable analysis to our own to address the same question. They failed to detect a significant effect of dissolved calcium on morphological evolution, but did establish a significant effect of predation; albeit in the opposite direction to their prediction.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Molecular data and ecological niche modelling reveal the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug (Microvelia douglasi douglasi) in East Asia

This study investigated the Pleistocene history of a semi‐aquatic bug, Microvelia douglasi douglasi Scott, 1874 (Hemiptera: Veliidae) in East Asia. We used M. douglasi douglasi as a model species to explore the effects of historical climatic fluctuations on montane semi‐aquatic invertebrate species. Two hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENMs). First, we hypothesized that M. douglasi douglasi persisted in suitable habitats in southern Guizhou, southern Yunnan, Hainan, Taiwan and southeast China during the LIG. After that, the populations expanded (Hypothesis 1). As the spatial prediction in the LGM was significantly larger than in the LIG, we then hypothesized that the population expanded during the LIG to LGM transition (Hypothesis 2). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial data (COI+COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S+ITS2). Young lineages, relatively deep splits, lineage differentiation among mountain ranges in central, south and southwest China and high genetic diversities were observed in these suitable habitats. Evidence of mismatch distributions and neutrality tests indicate that a population expansion occurred in the late Pleistocene. The Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) revealed an unusual population expansion that likely happened during the cooling transition between LIG and LGM. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM, a finding that can profoundly improve phylogeographic research. The ecological requirements of M. douglasi douglasi, together with the geographical heterogeneity and climatic fluctuations of Pleistocene in East Asia, could have shaped this unusual demographic history. Our study contributes to our knowledge of semi‐aquatic bug/invertebrate responses to Pleistocene climatic fluctuations in East Asia.