The accumulated evidence on lung cancer and environmental tobacco smoke.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke. DESIGN: Analysis of 37 published epidemiological studies of the risk of lung cancer (4626 cases) in non-smokers who did and did not live with a smoker. The risk estimate was compared with that from linear extrapolation of the risk in smokers using seven studies of biochemical markers of tobacco smoke intake. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Relative risk of lung cancer in lifelong non-smokers according to whether the spouse currently smoked or had never smoked. RESULTS: The excess risk of lung cancer was 24% (95% confidence interval 13% to 36%) in non-smokers who lived with a smoker (P < 0.001). Adjustment for the effects of bias (positive and negative) and dietary confounding had little overall effect; the adjusted excess risk was 26% (7% to 47%). The dose-response relation of the risk of lung cancer with both the number of cigarettes smoked by the spouse and the duration of exposure was significant. The excess risk derived by linear extrapolation from that in smokers was 19%, similar to the direct estimate of 26%. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological and biochemical evidence on exposure to environmental tobacco smoke, with the supporting evidence of tobacco specific carcinogens in the blood and urine of non-smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke, provides compelling confirmation that breathing other people''s tobacco smoke is a cause of lung cancer.     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

ObjectiveTo assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China.DesignSmoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes.Setting24 urban and 74 rural areas of China.SubjectsOne million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed.ResultsAmong male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase.ConclusionsAt current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Key messages

• Of the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosis
• Tobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become small
• Two thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old age
• If present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobacco
• Tobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns

     

Shortened telomere length is associated with increased risk of cancer: a meta-analysis

Background

Telomeres play a key role in the maintenance of chromosome integrity and stability, and telomere shortening is involved in initiation and progression of malignancies. A series of epidemiological studies have examined the association between shortened telomeres and risk of cancers, but the findings remain conflicting.

Methods

A dataset composed of 11,255 cases and 13,101 controls from 21 publications was included in a meta-analysis to evaluate the association between overall cancer risk or cancer-specific risk and the relative telomere length. Heterogeneity among studies and their publication bias were further assessed by the χ²-based Q statistic test and Egger''s test, respectively.

Results

The results showed that shorter telomeres were significantly associated with cancer risk (OR = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.14–1.60), compared with longer telomeres. In the stratified analysis by tumor type, the association remained significant in subgroups of bladder cancer (OR = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.38–2.44), lung cancer (OR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.18–4.88), smoking-related cancers (OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.83–2.78), cancers in the digestive system (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.53–1.87) and the urogenital system (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.12–2.67). Furthermore, the results also indicated that the association between the relative telomere length and overall cancer risk was statistically significant in studies of Caucasian subjects, Asian subjects, retrospective designs, hospital-based controls and smaller sample sizes. Funnel plot and Egger''s test suggested that there was no publication bias in the current meta-analysis (P = 0.532).

Conclusions

The results of this meta-analysis suggest that the presence of shortened telomeres may be a marker for susceptibility to human cancer, but single larger, well-design prospective studies are warranted to confirm these findings.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Epstein-Barr virus infection and sporadic breast cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Background

A large number of epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between Epstein-Barr virus infection and breast carcinoma risk but results have been inconsistent.

Methodology

Research using the polymerase chain reaction technique for detecting the Epstein-Barr virus was selected; 24 studies and 1535 cases were reviewed. Information on the study populations, sample types, publication calendar period and histological types of breast carcinoma were collected. An unconditional logistic regression model was used to analyze potential parameters related to the Epstein-Barr virus prevalence. A Kappa test was used to evaluate the consistency in detecting different Epstein-Barr virus DNA regions. Nine studies that included control groups and 1045 breast cancer cases were adopted in this meta-analysis.

Conclusions

We found that 29.32% of the patients with breast carcinoma were infected with the Epstein-Barr virus. The prevalence of Epstein-Barr was highest in Asia (35.25%) and lowest in the USA (18.27%). Statistical analysis revealed a trend that showed lobular breast carcinoma might have the strongest association with Epstein-Barr virus infection. This meta-analysis showed a significant increase in breast malignancy risk in patients testing positive for the Epstein-Barr virus (OR = 6.29, 95% CI = 2.13–18.59). This result suggests that an Epstein-Barr virus infection is statistically associated with increased breast carcinoma risk.     

Body iron stores and heme-iron intake in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and Objective

Emerging evidence from biological and epidemiological studies has suggested that body iron stores and heme-iron intake may be related to the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to examine the association of body iron stores and heme-iron intake with T2D risk by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of previously published studies.

Research Design and Methods

Systematic review and subsequent meta-analysis were conducted by searching MEDLINE database up to June 22, 2012 to identify studies that analyzed the association of body iron stores or dietary heme-iron intake with T2D risk. The meta-analysis was performed using the effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to calculate the pooled risk estimates, while the heterogeneity among studies was examined using the I² and Q statistic.

Results

The meta-analysis included 16 high-quality studies: 12 studies analyzed ferritin levels (4,366 T2D patients and 41,091 controls) and 4 measured heme-iron intake (9,246 T2D patients and 179,689 controls). The combined relative risk (RR) comparing the highest and lowest category of ferritin levels was 1.66 (95% CI: 1.15–2.39) for prospective studies, 2.29 (95% CI: 1.48–3.54) for cross-sectional studies with heterogeneity (Q = 14.84, p = 0.01, I² = 66.3%; Q = 44.16, p<0.001, I² = 88.7%). The combined RR comparing the highest and lowest category of heme-iron intake was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.21–1.43) with heterogeneity (Q = 1.39, p = 0.71, I² = 0%). No publication bias was found. Additional 15 studies that were of good quality, had significant results, and analyzed the association between body iron stores and T2D risk were qualitatively included in the systematic review.

Conclusions

The meta-analysis and systematic review suggest that increased ferritin levels and heme-iron intake are both associated with higher risk of T2D.     

Babies sleeping with parents: case-control study of factors influencing the risk of the sudden infant death syndrome. CESDI SUDI research group

ObjectiveTo investigate the risks of the sudden infant death syndrome and factors that may contribute to unsafe sleeping environments.DesignThree year, population based case-control study. Parental interviews were conducted for each sudden infant death and for four controls matched for age, locality, and time of sleep.SettingFive regions in England with a total population of over 17 million people.Subjects325 babies who died and 1300 control infants.ResultsIn the multivariate analysis infants who shared their parents'' bed and were then put back in their own cot had no increased risk (odds ratio 0.67; 95% confidence interval 0.22 to 2.00). There was an increased risk for infants who shared the bed for the whole sleep or were taken to and found in the parental bed (9.78; 4.02 to 23.83), infants who slept in a separate room from their parents (10.49; 4.26 to 25.81), and infants who shared a sofa (48.99; 5.04 to 475.60). The risk associated with being found in the parental bed was not significant for older infants (>14 weeks) or for infants of parents who did not smoke and became non-significant after adjustment for recent maternal alcohol consumption (>2 units), use of duvets (>4 togs), parental tiredness (infant slept ⩽4 hours for longest sleep in previous 24 hours), and overcrowded housing conditions (>2 people per room of the house).ConclusionsThere are certain circumstances when bed sharing should be avoided, particularly for infants under four months old. Parents sleeping on a sofa with infants should always be avoided. There is no evidence that bed sharing is hazardous for infants of parents who do not smoke.

Key messsages

• Cosleeping with an infant on a sofa was associated with a particularly high risk of sudden infant death syndrome
• Sharing a room with the parents was associated with a lower risk
• There was no increased risk associated with bed sharing when the infant was placed back in his or her cot
• Among parents who do not smoke or infants older than 14 weeks there was no association between infants being found in the parental bed and an increased risk of sudden infant death syndrome
• The risk linked with bed sharing among younger infants seems to be associated with recent parental consumption of alcohol, overcrowded housing conditions, extreme parental tiredness, and the infant being under a duvet

     

Reducing the risk of major elective surgery: randomised controlled trial of preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery

ObjectivesTo determine whether preoperative optimisation of oxygen delivery improves outcome after major elective surgery, and to determine whether the inotropes, adrenaline and dopexamine, used to enhance oxygen delivery influence outcome.DesignRandomised controlled trial with double blinding between inotrope groups.SettingYork District Hospital, England.Subjects138 patients undergoing major elective surgery who were at risk of developing postoperative complications either because of the surgery or the presence of coexistent medical conditions.InterventionsPatients were randomised into three groups. Two groups received invasive haemodynamic monitoring, fluid, and either adrenaline or dopexamine to increase oxygen delivery. Inotropic support was continued during surgery and for at least 12 hours afterwards. The third group (control) received routine perioperative care.ResultsOverall, 3/92 (3%) preoptimised patients died compared with 8/46 controls (17%) (P=0.007). There were no differences in mortality between the treatment groups, but 14/46 (30%) patients in the dopexamine group developed complications compared with 24/46 (52%) patients in the adrenaline group (difference 22%, 95% confidence interval 2% to 41%) and 28 patients (61%) in the control group (31%, 11% to 50%). The use of dopexamine was associated with a decreased length of stay in hospital.ConclusionRoutine preoperative optimisation of patients undergoing major elective surgery would be a significant and cost effective improvement in perioperative care.

Key messages

• Major elective surgery in UK general hospitals still carries significant mortality and morbidity
• Preoperative administration of fluid and inotropes, guided by invasive monitoring, can significantly reduce mortality, morbidity, and length of hospital stay
• The choice of inotrope may influence the extent of improvements in outcome
• Routine preoperative optimisation would require initial investment in high dependency care facilities but is likely to be cost effective by reducing complications and length of hospital stay

     

Differential white blood cell count and type 2 diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional and prospective studies

Objective

Biological evidence suggests that inflammation might induce type 2 diabetes (T2D), and epidemiological studies have shown an association between higher white blood cell count (WBC) and T2D. However, the association has not been systematically investigated.

Research Design and Methods

Studies were identified through computer-based and manual searches. Previously unreported studies were sought through correspondence. 20 studies were identified (8,647 T2D cases and 85,040 non-cases). Estimates of the association of WBC with T2D were combined using random effects meta-analysis; sources of heterogeneity as well as presence of publication bias were explored.

Results

The combined relative risk (RR) comparing the top to bottom tertile of the WBC count was 1.61 (95% CI: 1.45; 1.79, p = 1.5*10⁻¹⁸). Substantial heterogeneity was present (I² = 83%). For granulocytes the RR was 1.38 (95% CI: 1.17; 1.64, p = 1.5*10⁻⁴), for lymphocytes 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02; 1.56, p = 0.029), and for monocytes 0.93 (95% CI: 0.68; 1.28, p = 0.67) comparing top to bottom tertile. In cross-sectional studies, RR was 1.74 (95% CI: 1.49; 2.02, p = 7.7*10⁻¹³), while in cohort studies it was 1.48 (95% CI: 1.22; 1.79, p = 7.7*10⁻⁵). We assessed the impact of confounding in EPIC-Norfolk study and found that the age and sex adjusted HR of 2.19 (95% CI: 1.74; 2.75) was attenuated to 1.82 (95% CI: 1.45; 2.29) after further accounting for smoking, T2D family history, physical activity, education, BMI and waist circumference.

Conclusions

A raised WBC is associated with higher risk of T2D. The presence of publication bias and failure to control for all potential confounders in all studies means the observed association is likely an overestimate.     

Prognostic value of survivin in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma: a systematic review with meta-analysis

Purpose

The potential prognostic value of survivin in resected non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC) is variably reported. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of literatures evaluating survivin expression in resected NSCLC as a prognostic indicator.

Methods

Relevant literatures were identified using PubMed, EMBASE and Chinese Biomedicine Databases. We present the results of a meta-analysis of the association between survivin expression and overall survival (OS) in NSCLC patients. Studies were pooled and summary hazard ratios (HR) were calculated. Subgroup analyses and publication bias were also conducted.

Results

We performed a final analysis of 2703 patients from 28 evaluable studies. Combined HRs suggested that survivin overexpression had an unfavorable impact on NSCLC patients'' survival with no evidence of any significant publication bias (HR = 2.03, 95%CI: 1.78–2.33, Egger''s test, P = 0.24) and no severe heterogeneity between studies (I² = 26.9%). Its effect also appeared significant when stratified according to the studies categorized by histological type, HR estimate, patient race, cutoff point (5%, 10%), detection methods and literature written language except for disease stage. Survivin was identified as a prognostic marker of advanced-stage NSCLC (HR = 1.93, 95%CI: 1.49-2.51), but not early-stage NSCLC (HR = 1.97, 95%CI: 0.76-5.14), in spite of the combined data being relatively small.

Conclusion

This study shows that survivin expression appears to be a pejorative prognostic factor in terms of overall survival in surgically treated NSCLC. Large prospective studies are now needed to confirm the clinical utility of survivin as an independent prognostic marker.     

Mortality and smoking in Hong Kong: case-control study of all adult deaths in 1998

ObjectiveTo assess the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, and, since cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier in Hong Kong than in mainland China, to predict mortality in China 20 years hence.DesignCase-control study. Past smoking habits of all Chinese adults in Hong Kong who died in 1998 (cases) were sought from those registering the death.SettingAll the death registries in Hong Kong.Participants27 507 dead cases (81% of all registered deaths) and 13 054 live controls aged ⩾35 years.ResultsIn men aged 35-69 the adjusted risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) comparing smokers with non-smokers were 1.92 (1.70 to 2.16) for all deaths, 2.22 (1.94 to 2.55) for neoplastic deaths, 2.60 (2.10 to 3.21) for respiratory deaths (including tuberculosis, risk ratio 2.54), and 1.68 (1.43 to 1.97) for vascular deaths (each P<0.0001). In women aged 35-69 the corresponding risk ratios were 1.62 (1.40 to 1.88) for all deaths, 1.60 (1.33 to 1.93) for neoplastic deaths, 3.13 (2.21 to 4.44) for respiratory deaths, and 1.55 (1.20 to 1.99) for vascular deaths (each P<0.001). If these associations with smoking are largely or wholly causal then, among all registered deaths at ages 35-69 in 1998, tobacco caused about 33% (2534/7588) of all male deaths and 5% (169/3341) of all female deaths (hence 25% of all deaths at these ages). At older ages tobacco seemed to be the cause of 15% (3017/20 420) of all deaths.ConclusionsAmong middle aged men the proportion of deaths caused by smoking is more than twice as big in Hong Kong now (33%) as in mainland China 10 years earlier. This supports predictions of a large increase in tobacco attributable mortality in China as a whole.

What is already known on this topic

China, with 20% of the world''s population, smokes 30% of the world''s cigarettes. Men smoke most, and the proportion of male deaths at ages 35-69 attributable to tobacco has been predicted to rise over the next few decades from 13% (in 1988) to about 33%In Hong Kong cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier than in mainland China, so the epidemic of male deaths from tobacco should now be at a more advanced stage

What this study adds

In the general population of Hong Kong in 1998 tobacco caused about 33% of all male deaths at ages 35-69 plus 5% of all female deaths, and hence 25% of all deaths at these agesIn the male smokers tobacco caused about half of all deaths at ages 35-69The hazards now seen in Hong Kong foreshadow a substantial increase in tobacco deaths among middle aged men in mainland China over the next few decades if current smoking patterns persist     

Increased risk of breast cancer associated with CC genotype of Has-miR-146a Rs2910164 polymorphism in Europeans

Background

Emerging evidence suggests that microRNAs play a critical role in the pathogenesis of breast cancer. Several molecular epidemiological studies were conducted in recent years to evaluate the association between has-miR-146a rs2910164 polymorphism and breast cancer risk in diverse populations. However, the results remain conflicting rather than conclusive.

Methodology/Principal findings

We performed a meta-analysis of 6 case-control studies that included 4238 breast-cancer cases and 4469 case-free controls. We assessed the strength of the association, using odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Overall, this meta-analysis showed that the rs2910164 polymorphism was not associated with a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in all genetic models (for GC vs GG: OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.90−1.09, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.364; for CC vs GG: OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 0.98−1.36, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.757; for GC+CC vs GG: OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.93−1.12, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.562; for CC vs GC+GG: OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 0.96−1.26, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.441). However, in the stratified analysis by ethnicity, we found the rs2910164 polymorphism was associated with increased breast cancer risk among Europeans in homozygote comparison (CC vs. GG: OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 1.02−1.63, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.950, P = 0.032) and recessive model (CC vs. GC+GG: OR = 1.31, 95%CI = 1.05−1.65, P _{heterpgeneity} = 0.839, P = 0.019). No publication bias was found in the present study.

Conclusions/Significance

This meta-analysis suggests, for the first time, that the CC homozygote of rs2910164 may contribute to breast cancer susceptibility in Europeans.     

The TNF-alpha-238 polymorphism and cancer risk: a meta-analysis

Background and Objectives

Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) plays a very important role in the development and progress of cancer. Some TNF-α polymorphisms have been confirmed to increase cancer risks; however, the association between TNF-α-238 polymorphism and cancers remains controversial and ambiguous. The aim of this study is to explore a more precise estimation of its relationship with cancer using meta-analysis.

Methods

Electronic searches of several databases were conducted for all publications on the association between this variant and cancer through March 2011. Odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were used to access the strength of this association in the random-effect model.

Results

Thirty four studies with 34,679 cancer patients and 41,186 healthy controls were included. This meta-analysis showed no significant association between TNF-α-238 polymorphism and cancers (AA+GA vs GG: OR = 1.09, 95%CI = 0.88–1.34). In Caucasian and Asian subgroups, OR values (95% CI) were 1.14 (0.91–1.43) and 0.97 (0.58–1.61), respectively. In the subgroups of cancer type, no significant association was detected. The sensitivity analysis further strengthened the validity of these negative associations. No publication bias was observed in this study.

Conclusions

No significant association was found between the TNF-α-238 polymorphism and the risk for cancer.     

Association between alcohol consumption and cancers in the Chinese population--a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Alcohol consumption is increasing worldwide and is associated with numerous cancers. This systematic review examined the role of alcohol in the incidence of cancer in the Chinese population.

Methods

Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, CNKI and VIP were searched to identify relevant studies. Cohort and case-control studies on the effect of alcohol use on cancers in Chinese were included. Study quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Data were independently abstracted by two reviewers. Odds ratios (OR) or relative risks (RR) were pooled using RevMan 5.0. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the Q test and I-squared statistic. P<.01 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Pooled results from cohort studies indicated that alcohol consumption was not associated with gastric cancer, esophageal cancers (EC) or lung cancer. Meta-analysis of case-control studies showed that alcohol consumption was a significant risk factor for five cancers; the pooled ORs were 1.79 (99% CI, 1.47–2.17) EC, 1.40 (99% CI, 1.19–1.64) gastric cancer, 1.56 (99% CI, 1.16–2.09) hepatocellular carcinoma, 1.21 (99% CI, 1.00–1.46) nasopharyngeal cancer and 1.71 (99% CI, 1.20–2.44) oral cancer. Pooled ORs of the case-control studies showed that alcohol consumption was protective for female breast cancer and gallbladder cancer: OR 0.76 (99% CI, 0.60–0.97) and 0.70 (99% CI, 0.49–1.00) respectively. There was no significant correlation between alcohol consumption and lung cancer, colorectal cancer, pancreatic cancer, cancer of the ampulla of Vater, prostate cancer or extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Combined results of case-control and cohort studies showed that alcohol consumption was associated with 1.78- and 1.40-fold higher risks of EC and gastric cancer but was not significantly associated with lung cancer.

Conclusions

Health programs focused on limiting alcohol intake may be important for cancer control in China. Further studies are needed to examine the interaction between alcohol consumption and other risk factors for cancers in Chinese and other populations.     

Endpiece: Three different talks

ObjectivesTo characterise the information needs of family doctors by collecting the questions they asked about patient care during consultations and to classify these in ways that would be useful to developers of knowledge bases.DesignObservational study in which investigators visited doctors for two half days and collected their questions. Taxonomies were developed to characterise the clinical topic and generic type of information sought for each question.SettingEastern Iowa.ParticipantsRandom sample of 103 family doctors.ResultsParticipants asked a total of 1101 questions. Questions about drug prescribing, obstetrics and gynaecology, and adult infectious disease were most common and comprised 36% of all questions. The taxonomy of generic questions included 69 categories; the three most common types, comprising 24% of all questions, were “What is the cause of symptom X?” “What is the dose of drug X?” and “How should I manage disease or finding X?” Answers to most questions (702, 64%) were not immediately pursued, but, of those pursued, most (318, 80%) were answered. Doctors spent an average of less than 2 minutes pursuing an answer, and they used readily available print and human resources. Only two questions led to a formal literature search.ConclusionsFamily doctors in this study did not pursue answers to most of their questions. Questions about patient care can be organised into a limited number of generic types, which could help guide the efforts of knowledge base developers.

Key messages

• Questions that doctors have about the care of their patients could help guide the content of medical information sources and medical training
• In this study of US family doctors, participants frequently had questions about patient care but did not pursue answers to most questions (64%)
• On average, participants spent less than 2 minutes seeking an answer to a question
• The most common resources used to answer questions included textbooks and colleagues; formal literature searches were rarely performed
• The most common generic questions were “What is the cause of symptom X?” “What is the dose of drug X?” and “How should I manage disease or finding X?”

     

CT scan screening for lung cancer: risk factors for nodules and malignancy in a high-risk urban cohort

Background

Low-dose computed tomography (CT) for lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality. The National Lung Screening Trial reported a 20% reduction in lung cancer mortality in high-risk smokers. However, CT scanning is extremely sensitive and detects non-calcified nodules (NCNs) in 24–50% of subjects, suggesting an unacceptably high false-positive rate. We hypothesized that by reviewing demographic, clinical and nodule characteristics, we could identify risk factors associated with the presence of nodules on screening CT, and with the probability that a NCN was malignant.

Methods

We performed a longitudinal lung cancer biomarker discovery trial (NYU LCBC) that included low-dose CT-screening of high-risk individuals over 50 years of age, with more than 20 pack-year smoking histories, living in an urban setting, and with a potential for asbestos exposure. We used case-control studies to identify risk factors associated with the presence of nodules (n = 625) versus no nodules (n = 557), and lung cancer patients (n = 30) versus benign nodules (n = 128).

Results

The NYU LCBC followed 1182 study subjects prospectively over a 10-year period. We found 52% to have NCNs >4 mm on their baseline screen. Most of the nodules were stable, and 9.7% of solid and 26.2% of sub-solid nodules resolved. We diagnosed 30 lung cancers, 26 stage I. Three patients had synchronous primary lung cancers or multifocal disease. Thus, there were 33 lung cancers: 10 incident, and 23 prevalent. A sub-group of the prevalent group were stable for a prolonged period prior to diagnosis. These were all stage I at diagnosis and 12/13 were adenocarcinomas.

Conclusions

NCNs are common among CT-screened high-risk subjects and can often be managed conservatively. Risk factors for malignancy included increasing age, size and number of nodules, reduced FEV1 and FVC, and increased pack-years smoking. A sub-group of screen-detected cancers are slow-growing and may contribute to over-diagnosis and lead-time biases.     

Previous lung diseases and lung cancer risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

In order to review the epidemiologic evidence concerning previous lung diseases as risk factors for lung cancer, a meta-analysis and systematic review was conducted.

Methods

Relevant studies were identified through MEDLINE searches. Using random effects models, summary effects of specific previous conditions were evaluated separately and combined. Stratified analyses were conducted based on smoking status, gender, control sources and continent.

Results

A previous history of COPD, chronic bronchitis or emphysema conferred relative risks (RR) of 2.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66, 2.97) (from 16 studies), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.25, 1.84) (from 23 studies) and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.72, 2.41) (from 20 studies), respectively, and for all these diseases combined 1.80 (95% CI: 1.60, 2.11) (from 39 studies). The RR of lung cancer for subjects with a previous history of pneumonia was 1.43 (95% CI: 1.22–1.68) (from 22 studies) and for subjects with a previous history of tuberculosis was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.49, 2.08), (from 30 studies). Effects were attenuated when restricting analysis to never smokers only for COPD/emphysema/chronic bronchitis (RR = 1.22, 0.97–1.53), however remained significant for pneumonia 1.36 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.69) (from 8 studies) and tuberculosis 1.90 (95% CI: 1.45, 2.50) (from 11 studies).

Conclusions

Previous lung diseases are associated with an increased risk of lung cancer with the evidence among never smokers supporting a direct relationship between previous lung diseases and lung cancer.     

The effect of hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism on cancer risk: evidence from a meta-analysis

Background

Human oxoguanine glycosylase 1 (hOGG1) in base excision repair (BER) pathway plays a vital role in DNA repair. Numerous epidemiological studies have evaluated the association between hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and the risk of cancer. However, the results of these studies on the association remain conflicting. To derive a more precise estimation of the association, we conducted a meta-analysis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A comprehensive search was conducted to identify the eligible studies of hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and cancer risk. We used odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the strength of the association. We found that the hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism was significantly associated with overall cancer risk (Cys/Cys vs. Ser/Ser: OR = 1.19, 95%CI = 1.09–1.30, P<0.001; Cys/Cys vs. Cys/Ser+Ser/Ser: OR = 1.16, 95%CI = 1.08–1.26, P<0.001). Moreover, in subgroup analyses by cancer types, the stronger significant association between hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism and lung cancer risk was found (Cys/Cys vs. Ser/Ser: OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 1.16–1.44, P<0.001; Cys/Cys vs. Cys/Ser+Ser/Ser: OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 1.12–1.33, P<0.001). The significant effects of hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism on colorectal, breast, bladder, prostate, esophageal, and gastric cancer were not detected. In addition, in subgroup analyses by ethnicities, we found that the hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism was associated with overall cancer risk in Asians (Cys/Cys vs. Ser/Ser: OR = 1.21, 95%CI = 1.10–1.33, P<0.001).

Conclusions

This meta-analysis showed that hOGG1 326Cys allele might be a low-penetrant risk factor for lung cancer.     

Submitting articles to the BMJ

ObjectiveTo measure the effect of giving out free smoke alarms on rates of fires and rates of fire related injury in a deprived multiethnic urban population.DesignCluster randomised controlled trial.SettingForty electoral wards in two boroughs of inner London, United Kingdom.ParticipantsPrimarily households including elderly people or children and households that are in housing rented from the borough council.Intervention20 050 smoke alarms, fittings, and educational brochures distributed free and installed on request.ResultsGiving out free smoke alarms did not reduce injuries related to fire (rate ratio 1.3; 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.9), admissions to hospital and deaths (1.3; 0.7 to 2.3), or fires attended by the fire brigade (1.1; 0.96 to 1.3). Similar proportions of intervention and control households had installed alarms (36/119 (30%) v 35/109 (32%); odds ratio 0.9; 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.7) and working alarms (19/118 (16%) v 18/108 (17%); 0.9; 0.4 to 1.8).ConclusionsGiving out free smoke alarms in a deprived, multiethnic, urban community did not reduce injuries related to fire, mostly because few alarms had been installed or were maintained.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom, residential fires caused 466 deaths and 14 600 non-fatal injuries in 1999The risk of death from fire is associated with socioeconomic classOne study reported an 80% decline in hospitalisations and deaths from residential fires after free smoke alarms were distributed in an area at high risk, but these results may not apply in other settings, and evidence from randomised controlled trials is lacking

What this study adds

Giving out free smoke alarms in a multiethnic poor urban population did not reduce injuries related to fire or firesGiving smoke alarms away may be a waste of resources and of little benefit unless alarm installation and maintenance is assured     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 2. Early mortality results from a prospective study

ObjectiveTo monitor the evolving epidemic of mortality from tobacco in China following the large increase in male cigarette use in recent decades.DesignProspective study of smoking and mortality starting with 224 500 interviewees who should eventually be followed for some decades.Setting45 nationally representative small urban or rural areas distributed across China.SubjectsMale population aged 40 or over in 1991, of whom about 80% were interviewed about smoking, drinking, and medical history.Results74% were smokers (73% current, only 1% former), but few of this generation would have smoked substantial numbers of cigarettes since early adult life. Overall mortality is increased among smokers (risk ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.25, P<0.0001). Almost all the increased mortality involved neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular disease. The overall risk ratios currently associated with smoking are less extreme in rural areas (1.26, 1.12, or 1.02 respectively for smokers who started before age 20, at 20-24, or at older ages) than in urban areas (1.73, 1.40, or 1.16 respectively).ConclusionThis prospective study and the accompanying retrospective study show that by 1990 smoking was already causing about 12% of Chinese male mortality in middle age. This proportion is predicted to rise to about 33% by 2030. Long term continuation of the prospective study (with periodic resurveys) can monitor the evolution of this epidemic.

Key messages

• In recent years most young men in China have become persistent cigarette smokers, starting at about age 20; this will cause high mortality in middle age and old age
• Currently, however, most middle aged and older smokers (particularly in rural areas) have not persistently used substantial daily numbers of cigarettes ever since they were young adults, so their current tobacco attributed mortality is more limited
• Nationally representative retrospective and prospective studies now show that in about 1990 “only” about 12% of adult male deaths in middle age were caused by smoking
• Continuation of the present prospective study will monitor the growth of the epidemic of tobacco related deaths in China over the next few decades