Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle

The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.     

Complex adaptive landscapes (CAL): A conceptual framework of multi-functional,non-linear ecohydrological feedback systems

Landscape ecology and complex adaptive systems (CAS) research provide numerous examples of systems with complex non-linear feedbacks, but our understanding of these systems is severely limited by a lack of conceptual frameworks built on these foundations. Here, we develop a conceptual framework by combining CAS organisation with landscape structure, functioning and change. The resulting framework, ‘complex adaptive landscapes’ (CAL), explicitly captures the reciprocal feedbacks and non-linear nature of interactions between components within and between system levels, and the consequent possibility of multiple functional states (alternate systems functioning). The CAL framework highlights six core tenets that describe landscape complexity and dynamics. CAL provides examples of how the complex ecohydrological interactions at finer-scale hillslope levels manifest changes to broader landscape levels, as well as multi-temporal feedbacks and change (days to decades). Understanding the specific feedback and non-linear responses of different components of the landscape, such as plant functional types, are of paramount importance for adequately designing monitoring and analytical frameworks for adaptive natural resource management. The CAL framework allows us to better understand the scale of ecohydrological functions within the landscape, and how substituted component types and their spatial and temporal configuration may cause dysfunctional states to arise as a result of human land use.     

Rethinking the conceptual foundations of habitat fragmentation research

The conceptual foundations of habitat fragmentation research have not kept pace with empirical advances in our understanding of species responses to landscape change, nor with theoretical advances in the wider disciplines of ecology. There is now real debate whether explicit recognition of ‘habitat fragmentation’ as an over‐arching conceptual domain will stimulate or hinder further progress toward understanding and mitigating the effects of landscape change. In this paper, we critically challenge the conceptual foundations of the discipline, and attempt to derive an integrated perspective on the best way to advance mechanistic understanding of fragmentation processes. We depict the inherent assumptions underlying the discipline as a ‘conceptual phase space’ of contrasting false dichotomies in fragmentation ‘problem space’. In our opinion, the key determinant of whether ‘habitat fragmentation’ can remain a cohesive framework lies in the concept of ‘interdependence’: 1) interdependence of landscape effects on species and 2) interdependence of species responses to landscape change. If there is non‐trivial interdependence among the various sub‐components of habitat fragmentation, or non‐trivial interdependence among species responses to landscape change, then there will be real heuristic value in ‘habitat fragmentation’ as a single conceptual domain. At present, the current paradigms entrenched in the fragmentation literature are implicitly founded on strict independence of landscape effects (e.g. the debate about the independent effects of habitat loss versus fragmentation per se) and strict independence of species responses (e.g. the individualistic species response models underpinning landscape continuum models), despite compelling evidence for interdependence in both effects and responses to fragmentation. We discuss how strong ‘interdependence’ of effects and responses challenges us to rethink long‐held views, and re‐cast the conceptual foundations of habitat fragmentation in terms of spatial context‐dependence in the effects of multiple interacting spatial components of fragmentation, and community context‐dependence in the responses of multiple interacting species to landscape change.     

Mosquito immune responses and malaria transmission: lessons from insect model systems and implications for vertebrate innate immunity and vaccine development

The introduction of novel biochemical, genetic, molecular and cell biology tools to the study of insect immunity has generated an information explosion in recent years. Due to the biodiversity of insects, complementary model systems have been developed. The conceptual framework built based on these systems is used to discuss our current understanding of mosquito immune responses and their implications for malaria transmission. The areas of insect and vertebrate innate immunity are merging as new information confirms the remarkable extent of the evolutionary conservation, at a molecular level, in the signaling pathways mediating these responses in such distant species. Our current understanding of the molecular language that allows the vertebrate innate immune system to identify parasites, such as malaria, and direct the acquired immune system to mount a protective immune response is very limited. Insect vectors of parasitic diseases, such as mosquitoes, could represent excellent models to understand the molecular responses of epithelial cells to parasite invasion. This information could broaden our understanding of vertebrate responses to parasitic infection and could have extensive implications for anti-malarial vaccine development.     

A research framework for identifying potential linkages between isolated wetlands and disease ecology

Isolated wetlands are ideal model systems to examine linkages between environmental change, complex food webs, and the ecology of mosquito-borne diseases. Through long-term studies, we have evaluated the diversity among plant, invertebrate, and amphibian species of relatively undisturbed isolated wetlands. Based on preliminary evidence from impaired wetlands, we have developed a conceptual model to examine how human land use and climate change may affect wetland ecosystem functions that ultimately link to the proliferation of mosquito-borne diseases through the alteration of food webs and mosquito habitat. Our research framework initially requires the development of a wetland condition ranking system for a large group of isolated wetlands based on potential habitat for mosquitoes that vector disease. Secondly, it identifies potential changes in ecosystem function that specifically address the role of aquatic fauna in mediating mosquito-borne infectious diseases. Ultimately, understanding ecological functions and services will help focus the need for better management practices and potential regulation of impacts to isolated wetland habitats in the USA.     

Interactions between temperature and nutrients across levels of ecological organization

Temperature and nutrient availability play key roles in controlling the pathways and rates at which energy and materials move through ecosystems. These factors have also changed dramatically on Earth over the past century as human activities have intensified. Although significant effort has been devoted to understanding the role of temperature and nutrients in isolation, less is known about how these two factors interact to influence ecological processes. Recent advances in ecological stoichiometry and metabolic ecology provide a useful framework for making progress in this area, but conceptual synthesis and review are needed to help catalyze additional research. Here, we examine known and potential interactions between temperature and nutrients from a variety of physiological, community, and ecosystem perspectives. We first review patterns at the level of the individual, focusing on four traits – growth, respiration, body size, and elemental content – that should theoretically govern how temperature and nutrients interact to influence higher levels of biological organization. We next explore the interactive effects of temperature and nutrients on populations, communities, and food webs by synthesizing information related to community size spectra, biomass distributions, and elemental composition. We use metabolic theory to make predictions about how population‐level secondary production should respond to interactions between temperature and resource supply, setting up qualitative predictions about the flows of energy and materials through metazoan food webs. Last, we examine how temperature–nutrient interactions influence processes at the whole‐ecosystem level, focusing on apparent vs. intrinsic activation energies of ecosystem processes, how to represent temperature–nutrient interactions in ecosystem models, and patterns with respect to nutrient uptake and organic matter decomposition. We conclude that a better understanding of interactions between temperature and nutrients will be critical for developing realistic predictions about ecological responses to multiple, simultaneous drivers of global change, including climate warming and elevated nutrient supply.     

Towards a structured approach to building qualitative reasoning models and simulations

Successful transfer and uptake of qualitative reasoning technology for modelling and simulation in a variety of domains has been hampered by the lack of a structured methodology to support formalisation of ideas. We present a framework that structures and supports the capture of conceptual knowledge about system behaviour using a qualitative reasoning approach. This framework defines a protocol for representing content that supports the development of a conceptual understanding of systems and how they behave. The framework supports modellers in two ways. First, it structures and explicates the work involved in building models. Second, it facilitates easier comparison and evaluation of intermediate and final results of modelling efforts. We show how this framework has been used in developing qualitative reasoning models about three case studies of sustainable development in different river systems.     

Understandings of climate change articulated by Swedish secondary school students

This study investigated beliefs about climate change among Swedish secondary school students at the end of their K-12 education. An embedded mixed method approach was used to analyse 51 secondary school students’ written responses to two questions: (1) What implies climate change? (2) What affects climate? A quantitative analysis of the responses revealed that ‘Earth’, ‘human’ and ‘greenhouse effect’ were frequent topics regarding the first question, and ‘pollution’, ‘atmosphere’ and ‘Earth’ were frequent regarding the second. A qualitative analysis, based on a ‘conceptual elements’ framework, focused on three elements within responses: atmosphere (causes and/or consequences), Earth (causes and consequences) and living beings (humans and/or animals and their impacts on climate change). It revealed a predominantly general or societal, rather than individual, perspective underlying students’ responses to the second question. The ability to connect general/societal issues with individual issues relating to climate change could prompt students to reflect on the contributions of individuals towards climate change mitigation, thereby constituting a basis for decision-making to promote a sustainable environment. Although the students did not discuss climate changes from an individual perspective, their statements revealed their understanding of climate change as a system comprising various components affecting the overall situation. They also revealed an understanding of the difference between weather and climate.     

Sustainable Sourcing of Global Agricultural Raw Materials: Assessing Gaps in Key Impact and Vulnerability Issues and Indicators

Understanding how to source agricultural raw materials sustainably is challenging in today’s globalized food system given the variety of issues to be considered and the multitude of suggested indicators for representing these issues. Furthermore, stakeholders in the global food system both impact these issues and are themselves vulnerable to these issues, an important duality that is often implied but not explicitly described. The attention given to these issues and conceptual frameworks varies greatly—depending largely on the stakeholder perspective—as does the set of indicators developed to measure them. To better structure these complex relationships and assess any gaps, we collate a comprehensive list of sustainability issues and a database of sustainability indicators to represent them. To assure a breadth of inclusion, the issues are pulled from the following three perspectives: major global sustainability assessments, sustainability communications from global food companies, and conceptual frameworks of sustainable livelihoods from academic publications. These terms are integrated across perspectives using a common vocabulary, classified by their relevance to impacts and vulnerabilities, and categorized into groups by economic, environmental, physical, human, social, and political characteristics. These issues are then associated with over 2,000 sustainability indicators gathered from existing sources. A gap analysis is then performed to determine if particular issues and issue groups are over or underrepresented. This process results in 44 “integrated” issues—24 impact issues and 36 vulnerability issues —that are composed of 318 “component” issues. The gap analysis shows that although every integrated issue is mentioned at least 40% of the time across perspectives, no issue is mentioned more than 70% of the time. A few issues infrequently mentioned across perspectives also have relatively few indicators available to fully represent them. Issues in the impact framework generally have fewer gaps than those in the vulnerability framework.     

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil‐mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study

Future human well‐being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land‐based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil‐based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in‐depth understanding of the likely response of soil‐based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient‐related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well‐being.     

Moving from autonomous to planned adaptation in the montane forests of southeastern Australia under changing fire regimes

Forest ecosystems and their associated natural, cultural and economic values are highly vulnerable to climate driven changes in fire regimes. A detailed knowledge of forest ecosystem responses to altered fire regimes is a necessary underpinning to inform options for adaptive responses under climate change, as well as for providing a basis for understanding how patterns of distribution of vegetation communities that comprise montane forest ecosystems may change in the future. Unplanned consequential adaptation of both natural and human systems, i.e. autonomous adaptation, will occur without planned intervention, with potentially negative impacts on ecosystem services. The persistence of forest stands under changing fire regimes and the maintenance of the ecosystem services that they provide pivot upon underlying response traits, such as the ability to resprout, that determine the degree to which composition, structure and function are likely to change. The integration of ecosystem dynamics into conceptual models and their use in exploring adaptation pathways provides options for policy makers and managers to move from autonomous to planned adaptation responses. Understanding where autonomous adaptation provides a benefit and where it proves potentially undesirable is essential to inform adaptation choices. Plausible scenarios of ecological change can be developed to improve an understanding of the nature and timing of interventions and their consequences, well before natural and human systems autonomously adapt in ways that may be detrimental to the long‐term provision of ecosystem services. We explore the utility of this approach using examples from temperate montane forest ecosystems of southeastern Australia.     

食物链长度远因与近因研究进展综述

食物链长度是生态系统的基本属性,其变化决定着群落结构和生态系统功能。稳定同位素分析技术的进步推进了生态系统中食物链长度决定因子相关研究的开展。尽管近期的研究证明了食物链长度与资源可利用性、生态系统大小、干扰等远因之间的关系,但是对于食物网内部结构变化这一近因对食物链长度的影响作用关注较少。综述了边界明确和开放类型淡水生态系统中食物链长度的相关研究进展;探讨了远因和近因机制在决定食物链长度中的作用;给出了判断不同层次和尺度上决定食物链长度机制的概念框架;为今后更好的开展不同生态系统间食物链长度的比较研究提出了建议。     

Prospects for tropical forest biodiversity in a human-modified world

The future of tropical forest biodiversity depends more than ever on the effective management of human-modified landscapes, presenting a daunting challenge to conservation practitioners and land use managers. We provide a critical synthesis of the scientific insights that guide our understanding of patterns and processes underpinning forest biodiversity in the human-modified tropics, and present a conceptual framework that integrates a broad range of social and ecological factors that define and contextualize the possible future of tropical forest species. A growing body of research demonstrates that spatial and temporal patterns of biodiversity are the dynamic product of interacting historical and contemporary human and ecological processes. These processes vary radically in their relative importance within and among regions, and have effects that may take years to become fully manifest. Interpreting biodiversity research findings is frequently made difficult by constrained study designs, low congruence in species responses to disturbance, shifting baselines and an over-dependence on comparative inferences from a small number of well studied localities. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the potential prospects for biodiversity conservation can be explained by regional differences in biotic vulnerability and anthropogenic legacies, an ever-tighter coupling of human-ecological systems and the influence of global environmental change. These differences provide both challenges and opportunities for biodiversity conservation. Building upon our synthesis we outline a simple adaptive-landscape planning framework that can help guide a new research agenda to enhance biodiversity conservation prospects in the human-modified tropics.     

Seasonal contrasts in carbon resources and ecological processes on a tropical floodplain

1. Globally, tropical floodplains are highly productive ecosystems. This is largely because of predictable seasonal rains providing replenishing floodwaters that stimulate nutrient turnover which, in turn, substantially boosts both primary and secondary productivity. This is associated with concomitant shifts in the types of primary producers and associated food webs. 2. The Magela Creek floodplain on Kakadu National Park in northern Australia is one of the most studied tropical freshwater ecosystems in Australia and provides an opportunity to collate and examine information on organic carbon sources and pathways through food webs to gain a fundamental understanding of how these systems may function. 3. We reviewed biophysical information published since the early 1980s to construct an assessment of the carbon resources for the channel and floodplain. 4. We conclude that macrophytes, largely in the form of grasses and aquatic plants, produce the greatest above‐ground biomass on the Magela Creek floodplain. Although macrophytes provide suitable substrata for the attachment of epiphytes, they do not appear to be an important carbon source for aquatic consumers themselves. Nevertheless, macrophytes do provide critical seasonal food and habitat structure for other producers and consumers on the floodplain, such as the abundant magpie geese. 5. We developed a generalised conceptual food web and carbon budget contrasting the ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ seasons for the Magela Creek system, as a representative of tropical seasonal floodplain systems. 6. Our conceptual model of tropical floodplains indicates that knowledge of the seasonal and spatial links and exchanges between the floodplain and the river is critical in understanding ecosystem function.     

Impacts of altered precipitation regimes on soil communities and biogeochemistry in arid and semi‐arid ecosystems

Altered precipitation patterns resulting from climate change will have particularly significant consequences in water‐limited ecosystems, such as arid to semi‐arid ecosystems, where discontinuous inputs of water control biological processes. Given that these ecosystems cover more than a third of Earth's terrestrial surface, it is important to understand how they respond to such alterations. Altered water availability may impact both aboveground and belowground communities and the interactions between these, with potential impacts on ecosystem functioning; however, most studies to date have focused exclusively on vegetation responses to altered precipitation regimes. To synthesize our understanding of potential climate change impacts on dryland ecosystems, we present here a review of current literature that reports the effects of precipitation events and altered precipitation regimes on belowground biota and biogeochemical cycling. Increased precipitation generally increases microbial biomass and fungal:bacterial ratio. Few studies report responses to reduced precipitation but the effects likely counter those of increased precipitation. Altered precipitation regimes have also been found to alter microbial community composition but broader generalizations are difficult to make. Changes in event size and frequency influences invertebrate activity and density with cascading impacts on the soil food web, which will likely impact carbon and nutrient pools. The long‐term implications for biogeochemical cycling are inconclusive but several studies suggest that increased aridity may cause decoupling of carbon and nutrient cycling. We propose a new conceptual framework that incorporates hierarchical biotic responses to individual precipitation events more explicitly, including moderation of microbial activity and biomass by invertebrate grazing, and use this framework to make some predictions on impacts of altered precipitation regimes in terms of event size and frequency as well as mean annual precipitation. While our understanding of dryland ecosystems is improving, there is still a great need for longer term in situ manipulations of precipitation regime to test our model.     

Integrating ecosystem engineering and food webs

Ecosystem engineering, the physical modification of the environment by organisms, is a common and often influential process whose significance to food web structure and dynamics is largely unknown. In the light of recent calls to expand food web studies to include non‐trophic interactions, we explore how we might best integrate ecosystem engineering and food webs. We provide rationales justifying their integration and present a provisional framework identifying how ecosystem engineering can affect the nodes and links of food webs and overall organization; how trophic interactions with the engineer can affect the engineering; and how feedbacks between engineering and trophic interactions can affect food web structure and dynamics. We use a simple integrative food chain model to illustrate how feedbacks between the engineer and the food web can alter 1) engineering effects on food web dynamics, and 2) food web responses to extrinsic environmental perturbations. We identify four general challenges to integration that we argue can readily be met, and call for studies that can achieve this integration and help pave the way to a more general understanding of interaction webs in nature. Synthesis All species are affected by their physical environment. Because ecosystem engineering species modify the physical environment and belong to food webs, such species are potentially one of the most important bridges between the trophic and non‐trophic. We examine how to integrate the so far, largely independent research areas of ecosystem engineering and food webs. We present a conceptual framework for understanding how engineering can affect food webs and vice versa, and how feedbacks between the two alter ecosystem dynamics. With appropriate empirical studies and models, integration is achievable, paving the way to a more general understanding of interaction webs in nature.     

Evolution of ungulate mating systems: Integrating social and environmental factors

Ungulates exhibit diverse mating systems that range from monogamous pair territories to highly polygynous leks. We review mating systems and behaviors across ungulates and offer a new approach synthesizing how interacting factors may shape those mating systems. Variability exists in mating systems among and within species of ungulates and likely is affected by predation risk, availability of resources (food and mates), habitat structure, and sociality. Ungulate mating systems may be labile as a consequence of the varying strength of those interacting factors. In addition, degree of polygyny and sexual dimorphism in size are associated with the evolution of mating systems. Neither male–male combat nor paternal care, however, can completely explain differences in sexual size dimorphism for ungulates, a necessary component in understanding the development of some mating systems. Whatever the evolutionary pathway, sexual segregation limits paternal care allowing more intense male–male competition. Selection of habitat structure, because it modifies risk of predation, is a major determinant of sociality for ungulates. Likewise, ruggedness and steepness of terrain limit the types of mating systems that can occur because of limitations in group size and cohesiveness, as well as the ability of males to herd even small groups of females effectively. The quality and defensibility of resources affect mating systems, as does the defensibility of females. Population density of females also may be a critical determinant of the types of mating systems that develop. Size of groups likewise constrains the types of mating tactics that males can employ. Our aim was to use those relationships to create a broad conceptual model that predicts how various environmental and social factors interact to structure mating systems in ungulates. This model provides a useful framework for future tests of the roles of both ecological and social conditions in influencing the social systems of ungulates.     

Costs of fear: behavioural and life‐history responses to risk and their demographic consequences vary across species

Behavioural responses to reduce predation risk might cause demographic ‘costs of fear’. Costs differ among species, but a conceptual framework to understand this variation is lacking. We use a life‐history framework to tie together diverse traits and life stages to better understand interspecific variation in responses and costs. We used natural and experimental variation in predation risk to test phenotypic responses and associated demographic costs for 10 songbird species. Responses such as increased parental attentiveness yielded reduced development time and created benefits such as reduced predation probability. Yet, responses to increased risk also created demographic costs by reducing offspring production in the absence of direct predation. This cost of fear varied widely across species, but predictably with the probability of repeat breeding. Use of a life‐history framework can aid our understanding of potential demographic costs from predation, both from responses to perceived risk and from direct predation mortality.     

Toward a predictive macrosystems framework for migration ecology

Concern about the sustainability of intercontinental‐scale migration systems grows apace with global change. Traditional organism‐centred approaches to this problem have provided insights at the population level, but not at the systems level. We are sceptical that an accumulation of data from a species‐by‐species approach will yield an understanding of these systems in the near term. As an alternative, we advocate a new research programme that grows from an explicitly system‐based framework that leverages existing Earth observation infrastructure to make inferences directly at the macrosystem level. We illustrate how this approach can be used to generate and test system‐level predictions, using NEXRAD radar data as an example. We urge organismal ecologists to recognize that some of the most urgent migration questions are at the macrosystem scale and that tackling these questions requires an interdisciplinary approach if we are to make progress at a pace that exceeds that of climate change.     

Studying the Logone floodplain,Cameroon, as a coupled human and natural system§

African floodplains are an excellent example of coupled human–natural systems because they exhibit strong interactions among multiple social, ecological, and hydrological systems. The intra-annual and interannual variations in seasonal flooding have direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems and human lives and livelihoods. Coupled human and natural system (CHANS) is a broad conceptual framework that is used to study systems in which human and natural components interact. While there are other conceptual frameworks to study social-ecological systems, the CHANS framework offers a clear way of studying the interactions, called couplings, between human and natural systems. Core features of the framework are the following: human and natural systems are analytically separated; focus is on processes within and couplings between systems; and the goal is to build an integrative, quantitative model of the coupled system. This paper explains the conceptual framework of coupled systems, using the case study of the Logone floodplain in Cameroon. We compare the CHANS framework with other frameworks that have been used to study the same floodplain, and argue for its usefulness in the study of African floodplains.