Use of linear mixed models for genetic evaluation of gestation length and birth weight allowing for heavy-tailed residual effects

Background

The distribution of residual effects in linear mixed models in animal breeding applications is typically assumed normal, which makes inferences vulnerable to outlier observations. In order to mute the impact of outliers, one option is to fit models with residuals having a heavy-tailed distribution. Here, a Student''s-t model was considered for the distribution of the residuals with the degrees of freedom treated as unknown. Bayesian inference was used to investigate a bivariate Student''s-t (BSt) model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in a simulation study and analysing field data for gestation length and birth weight permitted to study the practical implications of fitting heavy-tailed distributions for residuals in linear mixed models.

Methods

In the simulation study, bivariate residuals were generated using Student''s-t distribution with 4 or 12 degrees of freedom, or a normal distribution. Sire models with bivariate Student''s-t or normal residuals were fitted to each simulated dataset using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. For the field data, consisting of gestation length and birth weight records on 7,883 Italian Piemontese cattle, a sire-maternal grandsire model including fixed effects of sex-age of dam and uncorrelated random herd-year-season effects were fitted using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Residuals were defined to follow bivariate normal or Student''s-t distributions with unknown degrees of freedom.

Results

Posterior mean estimates of degrees of freedom parameters seemed to be accurate and unbiased in the simulation study. Estimates of sire and herd variances were similar, if not identical, across fitted models. In the field data, there was strong support based on predictive log-likelihood values for the Student''s-t error model. Most of the posterior density for degrees of freedom was below 4. Posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities for birth weight were smaller in the Student''s-t model than those in the normal model. Re-rankings of sires were observed between heavy-tailed and normal models.

Conclusions

Reliable estimates of degrees of freedom were obtained in all simulated heavy-tailed and normal datasets. The predictive log-likelihood was able to distinguish the correct model among the models fitted to heavy-tailed datasets. There was no disadvantage of fitting a heavy-tailed model when the true model was normal. Predictive log-likelihood values indicated that heavy-tailed models with low degrees of freedom values fitted gestation length and birth weight data better than a model with normally distributed residuals.Heavy-tailed and normal models resulted in different estimates of direct and maternal heritabilities, and different sire rankings. Heavy-tailed models may be more appropriate for reliable estimation of genetic parameters from field data.     

Evaluating alternate models to estimate genetic parameters of calving traits in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle

Background

The focus in dairy cattle breeding is gradually shifting from production to functional traits and genetic parameters of calving traits are estimated more frequently. However, across countries, various statistical models are used to estimate these parameters. This study evaluates different models for calving ease and stillbirth in United Kingdom Holstein-Friesian cattle.

Methods

Data from first and later parity records were used. Genetic parameters for calving ease, stillbirth and gestation length were estimated using the restricted maximum likelihood method, considering different models i.e. sire (−maternal grandsire), animal, univariate and bivariate models. Gestation length was fitted as a correlated indicator trait and, for all three traits, genetic correlations between first and later parities were estimated. Potential bias in estimates was avoided by acknowledging a possible environmental direct-maternal covariance. The total heritable variance was estimated for each trait to discuss its theoretical importance and practical value. Prediction error variances and accuracies were calculated to compare the models.

Results and discussion

On average, direct and maternal heritabilities for calving traits were low, except for direct gestation length. Calving ease in first parity had a significant and negative direct-maternal genetic correlation. Gestation length was maternally correlated to stillbirth in first parity and directly correlated to calving ease in later parities. Multi-trait models had a slightly greater predictive ability than univariate models, especially for the lowly heritable traits. The computation time needed for sire (−maternal grandsire) models was much smaller than for animal models with only small differences in accuracy. The sire (−maternal grandsire) model was robust when additional genetic components were estimated, while the equivalent animal model had difficulties reaching convergence.

Conclusions

For the evaluation of calving traits, multi-trait models show a slight advantage over univariate models. Extended sire models (−maternal grandsire) are more practical and robust than animal models. Estimated genetic parameters for calving traits of UK Holstein cattle are consistent with literature. Calculating an aggregate estimated breeding value including direct and maternal values should encourage breeders to consider both direct and maternal effects in selection decisions.     

Retained placenta in Friesian mares: incidence, and potential risk factors with special emphasis on gestational length

During the foaling seasons of 1999 and 2000, the incidence of retained placenta in 495 normal parturitions of 436 Friesian brood mares was studied. Retained placenta was defined as a failure to expel all fetal membranes within 3 h of the delivery of the foal. Furthermore, the sex of the foal, month of breeding, sire and dam's sire, age of the mare, and time of day of foaling, were studied as factors that might be associated with retained placenta in Friesian mares after normal foalings, and with gestational length. The analysis was carried out using marginal logistic regression, and mixed linear regression, respectively. The incidence of retained placenta was 54%. Mean length of gestation was 331.6 days. Colts were carried 1.5 days longer than fillies. Mares bred in July-September had a 4-day shorter gestation period (329 days) than mares bred earlier in the year. There was a mare, sire, and dam's sire effect on gestational length, and a mare effect on the occurrence of retained placenta. Mares foaling at 4 and >17 years of age, tended to have a lower incidence of retained placenta than mares foaling at 5-17 years of age. No association was found between the occurrence of retained placenta, and gestational length, sex of the foal, month of breeding, dam's sire, and time of day of foaling. It was concluded that the observed high incidence of retained placenta indicates that the Friesian breed of horses has a higher risk for retained placenta than other breeds of horses.     

Influence of sire, sex of fetus and type of pregnancy on conceptus development

Estrus was synchronized in 93 crossbred cows 3 to 7 yr old which were then superovulated with 10 mg FSH-P and bred artificially to either a Jersey or Charolais bull. Females pregnant to the Jersey sire were slaughtered at 95, 180 or 250 d of gestation; low pregnancy rate from the Charolais sire resulted in enough dams for slaughter and valid comparisons at 95 d only. Conceptus tissue and organ weights and dam carcass weights and measurements were collected at slaughter. At 95 d of gestation, sire differences were not significant; type of pregnancy (single vs multiple) had significant effects on placentome and membrane weight; fetus sex had highly significant effects on fetus weight and crown-rump length. Fetal brain and heart weights showed little effect of sire, fetus sex or type of pregnancy, indicating these early differentiating tissues are highly competitive for available nutrients for growth. Fetal data at 180 and 250 d of gestation showed highly significant effects of gestation stage on placentome, membrane and fetus weights, crown-rump and metatarsal lengths, and liver, kidney, heart and total brain weights. Type of pregnancy had greater effects on the conceptus traits than did fetus sex at these stages. Nonorthogonal analyses of data from the Jersey-sired pregnancies indicated growth of fetuses in multiple pregnancies was suppressed, and the reduction in fetus weight became more pronounced as gestation progressed. Correlations among conceptus traits and dam carcass data showed different relationships within single and multiple pregnancies. We suggest that the genetic contribution for fetal growth has a positive effect on fetal size throughout gestation while the importance of metabolite availability may change during gestation depending on the genetic growth potential of the fetus and on whether the pregnancy is single or multiple. We speculate that these fetus-dam relationships involve systems controlling fetus growth that arise from the fetus genetic growth potential interacting with positive and negative dam effects that are linked or related to the carcass skeletal-fat-muscle endpoints studied.     

Should genetic groups be fitted in BLUP evaluation? Practical answer for the French AI beef sire evaluation

Some analytical and simulated criteria were used to determine whether a priori genetic differences among groups, which are not accounted for by the relationship matrix, ought to be fitted in models for genetic evaluation, depending on the data structure and the accuracy of the evaluation. These criteria were the mean square error of some extreme contrasts between animals, the true genetic superiority of animals selected across groups, i.e. the selection response, and the magnitude of selection bias (difference between true and predicted selection responses). The different statistical models studied considered either fixed or random genetic groups (based on six different years of birth) versus ignoring the genetic group effects in a sire model. Including fixed genetic groups led to an overestimation of selection response under BLUP selection across groups despite the unbiasedness of the estimation, i.e. despite the correct estimation of differences between genetic groups. This overestimation was extremely important in numerical applications which considered two kinds of within-station progeny test designs for French purebred beef cattle AI sire evaluation across years: the reference sire design and the repeater sire design. When assuming a priori genetic differences due to the existence of a genetic trend of around 20% of genetic standard deviation for a trait with h² = 0.4, in a repeater sire design, the overestimation of the genetic superiority of bulls selected across groups varied from about 10% for an across-year selection rate p = 1/6 and an accurate selection index (100 progeny records per sire) to 75% for p = 1/2 and a less accurate selection index (20 progeny records per sire). This overestimation decreased when the genetic trend, the heritability of the trait, the accuracy of the evaluation or the connectedness of the design increased. Whatever the data design, a model of genetic evaluation without groups was preferred to a model with genetic groups when the genetic trend was in the range of likely values in cattle breeding programs (0 to 20% of genetic standard deviation). In such a case, including random groups was pointless and including fixed groups led to a large overestimation of selection response, smaller true selection response across groups and larger variance of estimation of the differences between groups. Although the genetic trend was correctly predicted by a model fitting fixed genetic groups, important errors in predicting individual breeding values led to incorrect ranking of animals across groups and, consequently, led to lower selection response.     

The effect of conception date on gestation length of red deer (Cervus elaphus)

Recent studies have demonstrated that gestation length of red deer (Cervus elaphus) is highly variable and influenced by various environmental factors, and this may confer survival advantages for neonates. The current study investigated the relationship between conception date and gestation length to test the hypothesis that within-herd synchrony of red deer births is facilitated by a 'push/pull' control over gestation length, such that hinds conceiving early and late in the breeding season have longer and shorter gestation periods, respectively. In Study 1, data on conception and calving dates were obtained for 393 naturally cycling hinds across two herds. In Study 2, conception and calving dates were obtained from 91 hinds in which oestrus/conception were artificially synchronised across a 4-week range of dates spanning the natural rut. Gestation length for each population was analysed by linear regression, fitting conception day followed by terms for the fixed effect which included hind age (pubertal vs. adult), hind genotype (Cervus elaphus scoticus vs. Cervus elaphus hippelaphus and their crossbreds), calf sex, sire genotype (Study 1 only), birth weight and year. In Study 1, both populations of naturally cycling hinds exhibited highly significant (P<0.001) negative slopes (-0.36, -0.49) for the regression of gestation length against conception date, with indications of a significant hind genotype effect favouring shorter overall gestation lengths for crossbred hinds. Other effects for hind age, calf sex, birth weight, sire genotype and year were not significant. In Study 2, in which conception dates were artificially induced, there was a highly significant negative slope (-0.19), with a notable but non-significant effect of hind age favouring shorter overall gestation length for primiparous (pubertal) hinds (P>0.05). Other effects for hind live weight, calf sex and calf birth weight were not significant. All data sets support the hypothesis, and indicate that for every 10 days difference in conception date there was a change in gestation length of 1.9-4.9 days. This hints at the adaptive importance of optimisation of birth date in wild populations of red deer but the precise physiological mechanisms remain to be resolved. It is postulated that variation in fetal age during the latter stages of pregnancy, when feed quality and voluntary feed intake cycles are in a state of flux, may drive differential growth trajectories for early and late conceived fetuses, leading to nutritional control over fetal maturation and induction of parturition. However, consideration is also given to a putative direct effect of prevailing photoperiod on control of parturition processes in red deer.     

人工饲养条件下东方田鼠指名亚种繁殖特性及其幼仔的生长发育

在实验室饲养条件下, 对东方田鼠指名亚种繁殖特性和幼仔生长发育进行了初步观察。该鼠全年均可繁殖, 平均每胎产仔3.8 ±1.5 只, 妊娠期20～21 d , 繁殖间隔期39.3 ±26.4 d , 雌雄比为1.48。幼鼠3 日龄耳壳完全直立, 4 日龄开始长下门齿, 5 日龄长上门齿, 7～8 日龄睁眼, 20 日龄可断奶, 55 日龄左右性成熟。3 种生长模型(Logistic 方程、Gompertz 方程和Von Bertalanffy 方程) 对体重、体长、尾和后足的生长过程的拟合优度均很高,择优选用Von Bertalanffy 方程对体重、体长和尾长进行描述, 选用Logistic 方程对后足长的生长过程进行描述。将该鼠的生长发育过程划分为4 个阶段, 乳鼠阶段: 初生至10 日龄; 幼鼠阶段: 11 日龄至20 日龄; 亚成年阶段: 21至55 日龄; 成年阶段: 56 日龄以后。对指名亚种和长江亚种生长、繁殖特性异同亦作了初步分析。     

Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation

Aim  To test how well species distributions and abundance can be predicted following invasion and climate change when using only species distribution and abundance data to estimate parameters.
Location  Models were developed for the species' native range in the Americas and applied to Australia.
Methods  We developed a predictive model for an invasive neotropical shrub ( Parkinsonia aculeata) using a popular ecophysiological bioclimatic modelling technique (CLIMEX) fitted against distribution and abundance data in the Americas. The effect of uncertainty in model parameter estimates on predictions in Australia was tested. Alternative data sources were used when model predictions were sensitive to uncertainty in parameter estimates. The resulting best-fit model was run under two climate change scenarios.
Results  Of the 19 parameters used, 9 could not be fitted using data from the native range. However, only parameters that lowered temperature or increased moisture requirements for growth noticeably altered the model prediction in Australia. Differences in predictions were dramatic, and reflect climates in Australia that were not represented in the Americas (novel climates). However, these poorly fitted parameters could be fitted post hoc using alternative data sources prior to predicting responses to climate change.
Conclusions  Novel climates prevented the development of a predictive model which relied only on native-range distribution and abundance data because certain parameters could not be fitted. In fact, predictions were more sensitive to parameter uncertainty than to climate change scenarios. Where uncertainty in parameter estimates affected predictions, it could be addressed through the inclusion of alternative data sources. However, this may not always be possible, for example in the absence of post-invasion data.     

Genetic evaluation of ovulatory disorders in Austrian Fleckvieh cows: a comparison between linear models and survival analysis

The objective of this study was to compare linear models and survival analysis for genetic evaluation of ovulatory disorders, which included veterinary treatments of silent heat/anestrus and cystic ovaries. Data of 23 450 daughters of 274 Austrian Fleckvieh sires were analyzed. For linear model analyses, ovulatory disorders were defined as a binary response (presence or absence) in the time periods from calving to 150 days after calving and from calving to 300 days after calving. For survival analysis, ovulatory disorders were defined either as the number of days from calving to the day of the first treatment for an ovulatory disorder (uncensored record) or from calving to the day of culling, or the last day of the period under investigation (until 150 or 300 days after calving; censored record). Estimates of heritability were very similar (0.016 to 0.020) across methods and periods. Correlations between sire estimated breeding value from linear model and survival analysis were 0.98, whereas correlations between different time periods were somewhat lower (0.95 and 0.96). The results showed that the length of time period had a larger effect on genetic evaluation than methodology.     

Prenatal growth of long bones in rhesus and squirrel monkeys (Macaca mulatta and Saimiri sciureus)

Fetal long bone growth was studied from 59 radiographs representing 35 macaques and 79 radiographs representing 16 squirrel monkeys. From lateral abdominal radiographs of pregnant females total lengths of long bone shadows were measured to the nearest millimeter with a sliding caliper. A linear regression line was fitted to the data for each species. The high correlation coefficients (min. = 0.92) indicated not only that over 80% of the variance in longbone length was associated with the regression but also that linear regression was an acceptable model. It was determined that the macaque long bones grew more rapidly prenatally than the squirrel monkey long bones. Saimiri long bones grew at a faster rate during the second half of gestation than would be expected considering that the macaque long bones were approximately twice the length of Saimiri long bones at birth and that the duration of their gestation was about the same. Thus squirrel monkeys must achieve a greater percentage of their birth size during the second half of gestation.     

Aberrant fetal growth and development after in vitro culture of sheep zygotes.

The effects of in vitro culture systems for sheep zygotes on subsequent fetal growth and development to day 61 and day 125 of gestation were studied. Zygotes recovered from superovulated Scottish Blackface ewes approximately 36 h after intrauterine insemination using semen from a single Suffolk sire were cultured for 5 days in (a) a granulosa cell co-culture system (co-culture); (b) synthetic oviductal fluid medium without serum (SOF-); and (c) synthetic oviductal fluid medium supplemented with human serum (SOF+). Control embryos were recovered from superovulated donor ewes at day 6 after oestrus. Embryos were transferred at day 6 to synchronous Scottish Blackface recipient ewes. In total, 146 gravid uteri were recovered, comprising 97 at day 61 (20 co-culture, 27 SOF-, 25 SOF+ and 25 control) and 49 at day 125 (13 co-culture, 8 SOF-, 6 SOF+ and 22 control) of gestation. Fetuses derived from co-cultured embryos were 14% heavier (P < 0.01) by day 61 of gestation than those derived from control embryos. Growth coefficients derived from the linear allometric equation logey = logea + b logex (where y = organ mass; x = fetal mass) were significantly greater (P < 0.05) for liver, heart, kidneys and plantaris muscle in fetuses derived from co-cultured embryos, and for liver in fetuses derived from SOF+ embryos than those for control fetuses. Fetuses derived from co-cultured embryos were 34% heavier (P < 0.001) and fetuses derived from SOF+ embryos were 18% heavier (P < 0.01) by day 125 of gestation than those derived from control embryos. Growth coefficients for liver and heart for fetuses derived from co-culture and SOF+ embryos were also significantly greater (P < 0.05) at this stage of gestation than those for control group fetuses. In contrast, allometric coefficients for these organs in fetuses derived from embryos cultured in SOF without serum supplementation were not different from those for controls. Excessive volumes of amniotic fluid (polyhydramnios) were observed in 23% of conceptuses derived from co-cultured embryos. In vitro embryo culture can significantly influence fetal growth and this study provides quantitative evidence of major shifts in the patterns of organ and tissue development.     

Simulation study for analysis of binary responses in the presence of extreme case problems

Background

Estimates of variance components for binary responses in presence of extreme case problems tend to be biased due to an under-identified likelihood. The bias persists even when a normal prior is used for the fixed effects.

Methods

A simulation study was carried out to investigate methods for the analysis of binary responses with extreme case problems. A linear mixed model that included a fixed effect and random effects of sire and residual on the liability scale was used to generate binary data. Five simulation scenarios were conducted based on varying percentages of extreme case problems, with true values of heritability equal to 0.07 and 0.17. Five replicates of each dataset were generated and analyzed with a generalized prior (g-prior) of varying weight.

Results

Point estimates of sire variance using a normal prior were severely biased when the percentage of extreme case problems was greater than 30%. Depending on the percentage of extreme case problems, the sire variance was overestimated when a normal prior was used by 36 to 102% and 25 to 105% for a heritability of 0.17 and 0.07, respectively. When a g-prior was used, the bias was reduced and even eliminated, depending on the percentage of extreme case problems and the weight assigned to the g-prior. The lowest Pearson correlations between true and estimated fixed effects were obtained when a normal prior was used. When a 15% g-prior was used instead of a normal prior with a heritability equal to 0.17, Pearson correlations between true and fixed effects increased by 11, 20, 23, 27, and 60% for 5, 10, 20, 30 and 75% of extreme case problems, respectively. Conversely, Pearson correlations between true and estimated fixed effects were similar, within datasets of varying percentages of extreme case problems, when a 5, 10, or 15% g-prior was included. Therefore this indicates that a model with a g-prior provides a more adequate estimation of fixed effects.

Conclusions

The results suggest that when analyzing binary data with extreme case problems, bias in the estimation of variance components could be eliminated, or at least significantly reduced by using a g-prior.     

Analysis of the statistical thermodynamic model for nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria

The statistical thermodynamic (ST) model was used to study nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria on an anion exchanger. Single-component and binary protein adsorption isotherms of bovine hemoglobin (Hb) and bovine serum albumin (BSA) on DEAE Spherodex M were determined by batch adsorption experiments in 10 mM Tris-HCl buffer containing a specific NaCl concentration (0.05, 0.10, and 0.15 M) at pH 7.40. The ST model was found to depict the effect of ionic strength on the single-component equilibria well, with model parameters depending on ionic strength. Moreover, the ST model gave acceptable fitting to the binary adsorption data with the fitted single-component model parameters, leading to the estimation of the binary ST model parameter. The effects of ionic strength on the model parameters are reasonably interpreted by the electrostatic and thermodynamic theories. The effective charge of protein in adsorption phase can be separately calculated from the two categories of the model parameters, and the values obtained from the two methods are consistent. The results demonstrate the utility of the ST model for describing nonlinear binary protein adsorption equilibria.     

Relationship between myometrial cyclic nucleotide phosphodiesterase (PDE) activity and the RNA/DNA ratio at various stages of gestation in primates

Cyclic AMP and cGMP PDE activities were assayed in crude homogenates prepared from biopsies excised between day 39-162 of gestation (normal length of gestation, 165 days) in outer and inner layers of the macaque myometrium. In both layers, kinetic analysis of PDE indicated high (app Km approximately equal to 2 X 10(-6)M) and low (app Km approximately equal to 2 X 10(-5)M) affinity component for each substrate. Measured in high affinity conditions, specific activities were increased around day 40 and beyond day 130 of gestation. By contrast, low values were observed between days 50 and 100. No significant differences were observed between outer and inner layers. In both layers, the RNA/DNA ratio, which presumably reflects the rate of protein synthesis, culminated at the same time as the PDE activity. These variations were observed in the myometrium at specific stages of gestation. In late pregnancy, the human myometrium also displayed biphasic kinetics for cAMP and cGMP PDE activities. Non-human primates may be a partially representative model of what happens in the human myometrium.     

Genetic variability in calving success in Aberdeen Angus cows under extensive recording

Data from 2032 Uruguayan Aberdeen Angus cows under extensive management and recording practices were analysed with Bayesian threshold-liability sire models, to assess genetic variability in calving success (CS), defined as a different binary trait for each of the second (CS2), third (CS3) and fourth (CS4) calving opportunities. Sire (herd) variances ranged from 0.08 to 0.11 (0.10 to 0.20) and heritability from 0.27 to 0.35, with large credibility intervals. Correlations between herd effects on CS at different calving opportunities were positive. Genetic correlation between CS2 and CS4 was positive (0.68), whereas those involving adjacent calving opportunities (CS2-CS3 and CS3-CS4) were negative, at -0.39 and -0.54, respectively. The residual correlation CS2-CS3 was negative (-0.32). The extent of uncertainty associated with the posterior estimates of the parameters was further evaluated through simulation, assuming different true values (-0.4, -0.2, +0.2 and +0.4) for the genetic correlations and changes in the degree of belief parameters of the inverse Wishart priors for the sire covariance matrix. Although inferences were not sharp enough, CS appears to be moderately heritable. The quality of data recording should be improved, in order to effect genetic improvement in female fertility.     

森林生物量估算中模型不确定性分析

单木生物量估算是区域森林生物量估算的基础。量化单木生物量模型中各种不确定性来源,分析各不确定性来源对森林生物量估算的影响,可为提高森林生物量估算精度提供理论依据。基于52株杉木地上部分生物量实测数据,建立杉木单木地上部分生物量一元与二元模型。在两种模型形式下,根据临安市2009年森林资源连续清查数据中杉木实测数据,分析单木生物量模型中所包含的2种不确定性,即模型参数不确定性和模型残差变异引起的不确定性。最后利用误差传播定律计算单木生物量模型总不确定性。结果表明,基于一元生物量模型的临安市杉木生物量估计均值为6.94 Mg/hm~2,由一元模型残差变异引起的生物量不确定性约为11.1%,模型参数误差引起的生物量不确定性约为14.4%,一元生物量模型估算合成不确定性为18.18%。基于二元生物量模型的临安市杉木生物量估计均值为7.71 Mg/hm~2,模型残差变异引起的不确定性约为7.0%,模型参数误差引起的不确定性约为8.53%,二元生物量模型估算合成不确定性为11.03%。研究表明模型参数不确定性随建模样本的增加逐渐降低,当建模样本由30增加到40再增加到52时,一元生物量模型模型参数不确定性分别为20.26%、16.19%、14.4%,二元生物量模型分别为13.09%、9.4%、8.53%。此外,建模样本的增加对残差变异不确定性也有一定影响,当建模样本由30增加到42再增加到48时,一元模型残差变异不确定性分别为15.2%,12.3%和11.7%;二元模型残差变异不确定性分别为13.3%,9.4%和8.3%。在2种不确定性来源中模型参数不确定性对估计结果影响最大,其次为模型残差变异。由于模型残差变异、参数不确定性与建模样本有关,因此可以通过增加建模样本来减小模型参数不确定性。二元生物量模型总的不确定性要低于一元生物量模型。     

Hormonal changes accompanying cigarette smoke-induced preterm births in a mouse model

Epidemiologic evidence indicates that maternal smoking increases the risk of preterm birth. While a number of plausible mechanisms for early delivery have been offered, the role of gestational hormones in this smoke-induced outcome is uncertain. Thus, a toxicologic study was performed to examine the effects and underlying hormonal mechanisms of mainstream cigarette smoke (MCS) exposure on gestational duration. Pregnant B6C3F1 mice were exposed by inhalation to MCS for 5 days/week (4 hrs/day) from Gestational Day (GD) 4 to parturition. Smoke-induced effects on gestational length, interpubic ligament length, maternal hormone secretion patterns (estradiol-17beta, progesterone, prolactin, and relaxin), body weight gain, postimplantation loss, litter size, and offspring sex ratio were examined. Dams exposed to MCS at a concentration equivalent to smoking less than one pack of cigarettes/day (carbon monoxide = 25 parts per million, total suspended particulates = 16 mg/m3) demonstrated a significant (P < 0.05) shortening of gestational duration (compared with pregnant, air-exposed mice). In addition, MCS-exposed mice sacrificed on GD 18 had significantly (P < 0.05) increased interpubic ligament length, elevated serum estrogen levels, and a reduced progesterone to estradiol-17beta ratio (compared with air-exposed controls); levels of progesterone and prolactin were only modestly decreased and increased, respectively, in the MCS-exposed mice. Smoke exposure had no significant effects on maternal relaxin levels, body weight gain, postimplantation loss, litter size, or sex ratio. Results of this study demonstrate that inhalation exposure of pregnant mice to a low dose of MCS shortens gestation and alters hormone secretory patterns, which are important for maintaining pregnancy and inducing parturition. These findings support the view that pregnant women who smoke (even modestly) may be at increased risk for preterm birth, and that early delivery may be related (at least partly) to MCS-induced.     

Energy metabolism in graded perinatal asphyxia of the rat

Although information on energy metabolism during hypoxemic-ischemic states is abundant, data on perinatal asphyxia (PA) are limited. As results from hypoxia-ischemia cannot be directly extrapolated to PA, a clinical entity characterized by acidosis, hypoxemia and hypercapnia, we decided to use a rat model of graded PA during delivery. Cesarean section was performed at the 21st day of gestation and the pups, still in the uterus horns, were asphyxiated from 0 to 20 minutes. In this model survival decreases with the length of asphyxia. Early changes of energy-rich phosphates in brain, heart and kidney were determined by HPLC. ATP and phosphocreatine gradually decreased with the length of asphyxia, with highest ATP depletion rate occurring in the kidney. ATP: brain 1.39 +/- 0.71 (0 min) to 0.06 microM/g wwt (20 min); heart 4.73 +/- 0.34 (0 min) to 1.08 +/- 0.47 (20 min); kidney 1.62 +/- 0.11 (0 min) to 0.02 +/- 0.02 (20 min). Phosphocreatine: brain 1.65 +/- 0.68 (0 min) to 0.51 +/- 0.45 microM/g (20 min); heart 6.98 +/- 0.38 (0 min) to 6.17 +/- 1.07 (20 min); kidney 8.23 +/- 0.86 (0 min) to 3.76 +/- 0.54 (20 min). We present data on energy derangement in a rat model of PA, closely resembling the clinical situation, showing that energy depletion precedes cell damage and death.     

Relation between mating or ovulation and the duration of gestation in dogs

The effects of day of mating and litter size on gestation length in dogs were studied in 36 beagle bitches (age 2-10 yr). The day that plasma progesterone concentrations exceeded 2 ng/mL was considered the day of ovulation; dogs were randomly assigned to be bred once, 1-5 days after the estimated day of ovulation. The interval from mating to parturition was negatively correlated with the number of days from estimated ovulation to mating (P < 0.01). Gestation length (interval from ovulation to parturition) was almost constant at 63.9 +/- 0.2 days (mean +/- S.E.M.), with no significant relationship between the number of fetuses and the duration of gestation.     

Cellular accumulation of heat shock protein (Hsp) 72i in fetuses of trained rats

Forty-five Sprague-Dawley rats (60-80 days old) were randomly placed into one of three groups: sedentary pregnant control (PC); prepregnancy trained animals that exercised throughout pregnancy (PR); and nonpregnant trained animals (NPR). Each exercising animal ran at approximately 60-70% aerobic capacity (VO2max) for 1 hour/day up to and including day 18 of gestation (term = 21 days). On day 20 of gestation, fetuses were excised from each pregnant animal and scrutinized for gross abnormalities. In 3 randomly chosen fetuses from each litter, brain, heart, kidney, hind limb, and placental tissues were removed to assess the accumulation of the inducible isoform of the 70-kilodalton heat shock protein (Hsp 72i). No significant differences were detected between fetal hearts, hind limbs, or placental tissues of PC or PR groups. No Hsp 72i signal could be detected in fetal kidney or brain tissues from either pregnant group. Results indicate that maternal core temperature did not reach the threshold that would induce either gross fetal abnormalities or a fetal heat shock protein response. However, fetal and placental growth was reduced by the exercise protocol.