Comparing predicted yield and yield stability of willow and Miscanthus across Denmark

To achieve the goals of energy security and climate change mitigation in Denmark and the EU, an expansion of national production of bioenergy crops is needed. Temporal and spatial variation of yields of willow and Miscanthus is not known for Denmark because of a limited number of field trial data. The semi‐mechanistic crop model BioCro was used to simulate the production of both short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus across Denmark. Predictions were made from high spatial resolution soil data and weather records across this area for 1990–2010. The potential average, rain‐fed mean yield was 12.1 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for willow and 10.2 Mg DM ha^?1 yr^?1 for Miscanthus. Coefficient of variation as a measure for yield stability was poorest on the sandy soils of northern and western Jutland, and the year‐to‐year variation in yield was greatest on these soils. Willow was predicted to outyield Miscanthus on poor, sandy soils, whereas Miscanthus was higher yielding on clay‐rich soils. The major driver of yield in both crops was variation in soil moisture, with radiation and precipitation exerting less influence. This is the first time these two major feedstocks for northern Europe have been compared within a single modeling framework and providing an important new tool for decision‐making in selection of feedstocks for emerging bioenergy systems.     

The carbon implications of large‐scale afforestation of agriculturally marginal land with short‐rotation willow in Saskatchewan

Afforestation with short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow plantations for the purpose of producing bioenergy feedstock was contemplated as one potential climate change mitigation option. The objectives of this study were to assess the magnitude of this mitigation potential by addressing: (i) the land area potentially available for SRC systems in the province of Saskatchewan, Canada; (ii) the potential biomass yields of SRC plantations; and (iii) the carbon implications from such a large‐scale afforestation program. Digital soils and land‐use data were used to identify, map, and group into clusters of similar polygons 2.12 million hectares (Mha) of agriculturally marginal land that was potentially suitable for willow in the Boreal Plains and Prairies ecozones in Saskatchewan. The Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3PG) model was calibrated with data from SRC experiments in Saskatchewan, to quantify potential willow biomass yields, and the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3), was used to simulate stand and landscape‐level C fluxes and stocks. Short‐rotation willow plantations managed in 3 year rotations for seven consecutive harvests (21 years) after coppicing at Year 1 produced about 12 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 biomass. The more significant contribution to the C cycle was the cumulative harvest. After 44 years, the potential average cumulative harvested biomass C in the Prairies was 244 Mg C ha^?1 (5.5 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) about 20% higher than the average for the Boreal Plains, 203 Mg C ha^?1 (4.6 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1). This analysis did not consider afforestation costs, rate of establishment of willow plantations, and other constraints, such as drought and disease effects on biomass yield. The results must therefore be interpreted as a biophysical mitigation potential with the technical and economic potential being both lower than our estimates. Nevertheless, short‐rotation bioenergy plantations offer one potential mitigation option to reduce the rate of CO₂ accumulation in the earth's atmosphere and further research is needed to operationalise such a mitigation effort.     

Quantifying above‐ and belowground biomass carbon loss with forest conversion in tropical lowlands of Sumatra (Indonesia)

Natural forests in South‐East Asia have been extensively converted into other land‐use systems in the past decades and still show high deforestation rates. Historically, lowland forests have been converted into rubber forests, but more recently, the dominant conversion is into oil palm plantations. While it is expected that the large‐scale conversion has strong effects on the carbon cycle, detailed studies quantifying carbon pools and total net primary production (NPP_total) in above‐ and belowground tree biomass in land‐use systems replacing rainforest (incl. oil palm plantations) are rare so far. We measured above‐ and belowground carbon pools in tree biomass together with NPP_total in natural old‐growth forests, ‘jungle rubber’ agroforests under natural tree cover, and rubber and oil palm monocultures in Sumatra. In total, 32 stands (eight plot replicates per land‐use system) were studied in two different regions. Total tree biomass in the natural forest (mean: 384 Mg ha^?1) was more than two times higher than in jungle rubber stands (147 Mg ha^?1) and >four times higher than in monoculture rubber and oil palm plantations (78 and 50 Mg ha^?1). NPP_total was higher in the natural forest (24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) than in the rubber systems (20 and 15 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1), but was highest in the oil palm system (33 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) due to very high fruit production (15–20 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1). NPP_total was dominated in all systems by aboveground production, but belowground productivity was significantly higher in the natural forest and jungle rubber than in plantations. We conclude that conversion of natural lowland forest into different agricultural systems leads to a strong reduction not only in the biomass carbon pool (up to 166 Mg C ha^?1) but also in carbon sequestration as carbon residence time (i.e. biomass‐C:NPP‐C) was 3–10 times higher in the natural forest than in rubber and oil palm plantations.     

Simulating switchgrass biomass production across ecoregions using the DAYCENT model

The production potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has not been estimated in a Mediterranean climate on a regional basis and its economic and environmental contribution as a biofuel crop remains unknown. The objectives of the study were to calibrate and validate a biogeochemical model, DAYCENT, and to predict the biomass yield potential of switchgrass across the Central Valley of California. Six common cultivars were calibrated using published data across the US and validated with data generated from four field trials in California (2007–2009). After calibration, the modeled range of yields across the cultivars and various management practices in the US (excluding California) was 2.4–41.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, generally compatible with the observed yield range of 1.3–33.7 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Overall, the model was successfully validated in California; the model explained 66–90% of observed yield variation in 2007–2009. The range of modeled yields was 2.0–41.4 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, which corresponded to the observed range of 1.3–41.1 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. The response to N fertilizer and harvest frequency on yields were also reasonably validated. The model estimated that Alamo (21–23 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) and Kanlow (22–24 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) had greatest yield potential during the years after establishment. The effects of soil texture on modeled yields tended to be consistent for all cultivars, but there were distinct climatic (e.g., annual mean maximum temperature) controls among the cultivars. Our modeled results suggest that early stand maintenance of irrigated switchgrass is strongly dependent on available soil N; estimated yields increased by 1.6–5.5 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 when residual soil mineral N was sufficient for optimal re‐growth. Therefore, management options of switchgrass for regional biomass production should be ecotype‐specific and ensure available soil N maintenance.     

Comparing annual and perennial crops for bioenergy production – influence on nitrate leaching and energy balance

Production of energy crops is promoted as a means to mitigate global warming by decreasing dependency on fossil energy. However, agricultural production of bioenergy can have various environmental effects depending on the crop and production system. In a field trial initiated in 2008, nitrate concentration in soil water was measured below winter wheat, grass‐clover and willow during three growing seasons. Crop water balances were modelled to estimate the amount of nitrate leached per hectare. In addition, dry matter yields and nitrogen (N) yields were measured, and N balances and energy balances were calculated. In willow, nitrate concentrations were up to approximately 20 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N during the establishment year, but declined subsequently to <5 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N, resulting in an annual N leaching loss of 18, 3 and 0.3 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N in the first 3 years after planting. A similar trend was observed in grass‐clover where concentrations stabilized at 2–4 mg l^?1 nitrate‐N from the beginning of the second growing season, corresponding to leaching of approximately 5 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 N. In winter wheat, an annual N leaching loss of 36–68 kg ha^?1 yr^?1 was observed. For comparison, nitrate leaching was also measured in an old willow crop established in 1996 from which N leaching ranged from 6 to 27 kg ha^?1 yr^?1. Dry matter yields ranged between 5.9 and 14.8 Mg yr^?1 with lowest yield in the newly established willow and the highest yield harvested in grass‐clover. Grass‐clover gave the highest net energy yield of 244 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas old willow, winter wheat and first rotation willow gave net energy yields of 235, 180 and 105 GJ ha^?1 yr^?1. The study showed that perennial crops can provide high energy yields and significantly reduce N losses compared to annual crops.     

The dynamics of soil redistribution and the implications for soil organic carbon accounting in agricultural south‐eastern Australia

Anthropogenically induced change in soil redistribution plays an important role in the soil organic carbon (SOC) budget. Uncertainty of its impact is large because of the dearth of recent soil redistribution estimates concomitant with changing land use and management practices. An Australian national survey used the artificial radionuclide caesium‐137 (¹³⁷Cs) to estimate net (1950s–1990) soil redistribution. South‐eastern Australia showed a median net soil loss of 9.7 t ha^?1 yr^?1. We resurveyed the region using the same ¹³⁷Cs technique and found a median net (1990–2010) soil gain of 3.9 t ha^?1 yr^?1 with an interquartile range from ?1.6 t ha^?1 yr^?1 to +10.7 t ha^?1 yr^?1. Despite this variation, soil erosion across the region has declined as a likely consequence of the widespread adoption of soil conservation measures over the last ca 30 years. The implication of omitted soil redistribution dynamics in SOC accounting is to increase uncertainty and diminish its accuracy.     

Poplar and shrub willow energy crops in the United States: field trial results from the multiyear regional feedstock partnership and yield potential maps based on the PRISM‐ELM model

To increase the understanding of poplar and willow perennial woody crops and facilitate their deployment for the production of biofuels, bioproducts, and bioenergy, there is a need for broadscale yield maps. For national analysis of woody and herbaceous crops production potential, biomass feedstock yield maps should be developed using a common framework. This study developed willow and poplar potential yield maps by combining data from a network of willow and poplar field trials and the modeling power of PRISM‐ELM. Yields of the top three willow cultivars across 17 sites ranged from 3.60 to 14.6 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 dry weight, while the yields from 17 poplar trials ranged from 7.5 to 15.2 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Relationships between the environmental suitability estimates from the PRISM‐ELM model and results from field trials had an R² of 0.60 for poplar and 0.81 for willow. The resulting potential yield maps reflected the range of poplar and willow yields that have been reported in the literature. Poplar covered a larger geographic range than willow, which likely reflects the poplar breeding efforts that have occurred for many more decades using genotypes from a broader range of environments than willow. While the field trial data sets used to develop these models represent the most complete information at the time, there is a need to expand and improve the model by monitoring trials over multiple cutting cycles and across a broader range of environmental gradients. Despite some limitations, the results of these models represent a dramatic improvement in projections of potential yield of poplar and willow crops across the United States.     

Development and evaluation of ForestGrowth‐SRC a process‐based model for short rotation coppice yield and spatial supply reveals poplar uses water more efficiently than willow

Woody biomass produced from short rotation coppice (SRC) poplar (Populus spp.) and willow (Salix spp.) is a bioenergy feedstock that can be grown widely across temperate landscapes and its use is likely to increase in future. Process‐based models are therefore required to predict current and future yield potential that are spatially resolved and can consider new genotypes and climates that will influence future yield. The development of a process‐based model for SRC poplar and willow, ForestGrowth‐SRC, is described and the ability of the model to predict SRC yield and water use efficiency (WUE) was evaluated. ForestGrowth‐SRC was parameterized from a process‐based model, ForestGrowth for high forest. The new model predicted annual above ground yield well for poplar (r² = 0.91, RMSE = 1.46 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1) and willow (r² = 0.85, RMSE = 1.53 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1), when compared with measured data from seven sites in contrasting climatic zones across the United Kingdom. Average modelled yields for poplar and willow were 10.3 and 9.0 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, and interestingly, the model predicted a higher WUE for poplar than for willow: 9.5 and 5.5 g kg^?1 respectively. Using regional mapped climate and soil inputs, modelled and measured yields for willow compared well (r² = 0.58, RMSE = 1.27 ODT ha^?1 yr^?1), providing the first UK map of SRC yield, from a process‐based model. We suggest that the model can be used for predicting current and future SRC yields at a regional scale, highlighting important species and genotype choices with respect to water use efficiency and yield potential.     

Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. We combined process‐based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field‐dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha^?1 yr^?1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effective rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn‐based ethanol production.     

Greenhouse Gas Potentials of Shrub Willow Biomass Crops Based on Below- and Aboveground Biomass Inventory Along a 19-Year Chronosequence

Shrub willow biomass crops (SWBC) have been developed as a biomass feedstock for bioenergy, biofuels, and bioproducts in the northeastern and midwestern USA as well as in Europe. A previous life cycle analysis in North America showed that the SWBC production system is a low-carbon fuel source. However, this analysis is potentially inaccurate due to the limited belowground biomass data and the lack of aboveground stool biomass data. This study provides new information on the above- and belowground biomass, the carbon–nitrogen (C/N) ratio, and the root/shoot (R/S) ratio of willow biomass crops (Salix × dasyclados [SV1]), which have been in production from 5 to 19 years. The measured amounts of biomass were: 2.6 to 4.1 odt ha^?1 for foliage, 4.9 to 10.9 odt ha^?1 for aboveground stool (AGS), 2.9 to 5.7 odt ha^?1 for coarse roots (CR), 3.1 to 10.2 odt ha^?1 for belowground stool (BGS), and 5.6 to 9.9 odt ha^?1 for standing fine root (FR). The stem biomass production ranged from 7.0 to 18.0 odt ha^?1?year^?1 for the 5- and 19-year-old willows, respectively. C/N ratios ranged from 23 for foliage to 209 for belowground stool. An average R/S ratio of 2.0, calculated as total belowground biomass (BGS, CR, and FR) plus AGS divided by annual stem biomass, can be applied to estimate the total belowground biomass production of a mature SWBC. Based on AGS, BGS, and CR and standing FR biomass data, SWBC showed a net GHG potential of ?42.9 Mg CO₂ eq?ha^?1 at the end of seven 3-year rotations.     

Bio‐mitigation of carbon following afforestation of abandoned salinized farmland

As the global demand for food continues to increase, the displacement of food production by using agricultural land for carbon mitigation, via either carbon sequestration, bioenergy or biofuel is a concern. An alternative approach is to target abandoned salinized farmland for mitigation purposes. Australia, for example, has 17 million ha of farmland that is already or could become saline. At a representative, salinized, low rainfall (350 mm yr^?1) site at Wickepin, Western Australia, we demonstrate that afforestation can mitigate carbon emissions through either providing a feedstock for bioenergy or second generation biofuel production and produce salt‐tolerant fodder for livestock. A range of factors markedly affect this mitigation. These include hydrological conditions such as salinity, site factors such as slope position and soil properties and a range of silvicultural factors such as species, planting density and age of the planting. High density (2000 stems ha^?1) plantings of Eucalyptus occidentalis Endl. produced a mean total biomass of 4.6 t ha^?1 yr^?1 (8.5 t CO₂‐e ha^?1 yr^?1) averaged over 8 years. Atriplex nummularia Lindl. produced a mean total biomass of 3.8 t ha^?1 yr^?1 (6.9 t CO₂‐e ha^?1 yr^?1) averaged over 4 years and approximately 1.9 t ha^?1 yr^?1 of edible dry matter annually to 8 years of age. With differences in salt tolerance between E. occidentalis and A. nummularia, we propose an integrated approach to treating salinized sites that takes salinity gradients into account, replicates natural wetland ecosystems and produces both fodder and biomass. Continued mitigation is expected as the stands mature, assuming that growth is not affected by the accumulation of salt in the soil profile. Such carbon mitigation could potentially be applied to salinized farmland globally, and this could thus represent a major contribution to global carbon mitigation without competing with food production.     

Dry deposition of ammonia gas drives species change faster than wet deposition of ammonium ions: evidence from a long‐term field manipulation

Although the effects of atmospheric nitrogen deposition on species composition are relatively well known, the roles of the different forms of nitrogen, in particular gaseous ammonia (NH₃), have not been tested in the field. Since 2002, we have manipulated the form of N deposition to an ombrotrophic bog, Whim, on deep peat in southern Scotland, with low ambient N (wet + dry = 8 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1) and S (4 kg S ha^?1 yr^?1) deposition. A gradient of ammonia (NH₃, dry N), from 70 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 down to background, 3–4 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 was generated by free air release. Wet ammonium (NH₄⁺, wet N) was provided to replicate plots in a fine rainwater spray (NH₄Cl at +8, +24, +56 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1). Automated treatments are coupled to meteorological conditions, in a globally unique, field experiment. Ammonia concentrations were converted to NH₃‐N deposition (kg N ha^?1) using a site/vegetation specific parameterization. Within 3 years, exposure to relatively modest deposition of NH₃, 20–56 kg NH₃‐N ha^?1 yr^?1 led to dramatic reductions in species cover, with almost total loss of Calluna vulgaris, Sphagnum capillifolium and Cladonia portentosa. These effects appear to result from direct foliar uptake and interaction with abiotic and biotic stresses, rather than via effects on the soil. Additional wet N by contrast, significantly increased Calluna cover after 5 years at the 56 kg N dose, but reduced cover of Sphagnum and Cladonia. Cover reductions caused by wet N were significantly different from and much smaller than those caused by equivalent dry N doses. The effects of gaseous NH₃ described here, highlight the potential for ammonia to destroy acid heathland and peat bog ecosystems. Separating the effects of gaseous ammonia and wet ammonium deposition, for a peat bog, has significant implications for regulatory bodies and conservation agencies.     

Quantifying global greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change for crop production

Many assessments of product carbon footprint (PCF) for agricultural products omit emissions arising from land‐use change (LUC). In this study, we developed a framework based on IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies to assess the impacts of LUC from crop production using oil palm, soybean and oilseed rape as examples. Using ecological zone, climate and soil types from the top 20 producing countries, calculated emissions for transitions from natural vegetation to cropland on mineral soils under typical management ranged from ?4.5 to 29.4 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for oil palm and 1.2–47.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for soybeans. Oilseed rape showed similar results to soybeans, but with lower maximum values because it is mainly grown in areas with lower C stocks. GHG emissions from other land‐use transitions were between 62% and 95% lower than those from natural vegetation for the arable crops, while conversions to oil palm were a sink for C. LUC emissions were considered on a national basis and also expressed per‐tonne‐of‐oil‐produced. Weighted global averages indicate that, depending on the land‐use transition, oil crop production on newly converted land contributes between ?3.1 and 7.0 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for palm oil, 11.9–50.6 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for soybean oil, and 7.7–31.4 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for rapeseed oil. Assumptions made about crop and LUC distribution within countries contributed up to 66% error around the global averages for natural vegetation conversions. Uncertainty around biomass and soil C stocks were also examined. Finer resolution data and information (particularly on land management and yield) could improve reliability of the estimates but the framework can be used in all global regions and represents an important step forward for including LUC emissions in PCFs.     

Household energy and recycling of nutrients and carbon to the soil in integrated crop‐livestock farming systems: a case study in Kumbursa village,Central Highlands of Ethiopia

Soil amendment with organic wastes in the Highlands of Ethiopia has been greatly reduced by widespread use of dung cakes and crop residues as fuels. This study assessed the interaction between household energy and recycling of nutrients and carbon to the soil using household survey, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, direct observations and measurements between 2014 and 2015 in Kumbursa village (Central Highlands of Ethiopia). All surveyed households were entirely dependent on biomass fuel for cooking, with production and consumption rates directly related to wealth status, which significantly varied (P < 0.001) among three farm wealth groups (poor, medium and rich). Crop residues and dung cakes accounted for 80(±3)% by energy content and 85(±4)% by dry mass weight of total biomass fuel consumption. Mean losses were 59(±2) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 nitrogen (109(±8) kg yr^?1 per household), 13.9(±0.3) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 phosphorus (26(±2) kg yr^?1 per household), 79(±2) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 potassium (150(±11) kg yr^?1 per household) and 2100(±40) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 organic carbon (3000(±300) kg yr^?1 per household). Rich farmers lost significantly more carbon and nutrients in fuel than farmers in other wealth groups. However, these losses were spread over a larger area, so losses per land area were significantly higher for medium and poor than for rich farmers. This means that the land of poorer farmers is likely to become degraded more rapidly due to fuel limitations than that of rich farmers, so increasing the poverty gap. The estimated financial loss per household due to not using dung and crop residues as organic fertilizer was 162(±8) USSoil amendment with organic wastes in the Highlands of Ethiopia has been greatly reduced by widespread use of dung cakes and crop residues as fuels. This study assessed the interaction between household energy and recycling of nutrients and carbon to the soil using household survey, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, direct observations and measurements between 2014 and 2015 in Kumbursa village (Central Highlands of Ethiopia). All surveyed households were entirely dependent on biomass fuel for cooking, with production and consumption rates directly related to wealth status, which significantly varied (P < 0.001) among three farm wealth groups (poor, medium and rich). Crop residues and dung cakes accounted for 80(±3)% by energy content and 85(±4)% by dry mass weight of total biomass fuel consumption. Mean losses were 59(±2) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 nitrogen (109(±8) kg yr^?1 per household), 13.9(±0.3) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 phosphorus (26(±2) kg yr^?1 per household), 79(±2) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 potassium (150(±11) kg yr^?1 per household) and 2100(±40) kg ha^?1 yr^?1 organic carbon (3000(±300) kg yr^?1 per household). Rich farmers lost significantly more carbon and nutrients in fuel than farmers in other wealth groups. However, these losses were spread over a larger area, so losses per land area were significantly higher for medium and poor than for rich farmers. This means that the land of poorer farmers is likely to become degraded more rapidly due to fuel limitations than that of rich farmers, so increasing the poverty gap. The estimated financial loss per household due to not using dung and crop residues as organic fertilizer was 162(±8) US$ yr^?1. However, this is less than their value as fuels, which was 490(±20) US$ yr^?1. Therefore, farmers will only be persuaded to use these valuable assets as soil improvers if an alternative, cheaper fuel source can be found.     

Soil carbon changes under Miscanthus driven by C4 accumulation and C3 decompostion – toward a default sequestration function

Bioenergy has to meet increasing sustainability criteria in the EU putting conventional bioenergy crops under pressure. Alternatively, perennial bioenergy crops, such as Miscanthus, show higher greenhouse gas savings with similarly high energy yields. In addition, Miscanthus plantations may sequester additional soil organic carbon (SOC) to mitigate climate change. As the land‐use change in cropland to Miscanthus involves a C₃‐C₄ vegetation change (VC), it is possible to determine the dynamic of Miscanthus‐derived SOC (C₄ carbon) and of the old SOC (C₃ carbon) by the isotopic ratio of ¹³C to ¹²C. We sampled six croplands and adjacent Miscanthus plantations exceeding the age of 10 years across Europe. We found a mean C₄ carbon sequestration rate of 0.78 ± 0.19 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1, which increased with mean annual temperature. At three of six sites, we found a significant increase in C₃ carbon due to the application of organic fertilizers or difference in baseline SOC, which we define as non‐VC‐induced SOC changes. The Rothamsted Carbon Model was used to disentangle the decomposition of old C₃ carbon and the non‐VC‐induced C₃ carbon changes. Subsequently, this method was applied to eight more sites from the literature, resulting in a climate‐dependent VC‐induced SOC sequestration rate (0.40 ± 0.20 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1), as a step toward a default SOC change function for Miscanthus plantations on former croplands in Europe. Furthermore, we conducted a SOC fractionation to assess qualitative SOC changes and the incorporation of C₄ carbon into the soil. Sixteen years after Miscanthus establishment, 68% of the particulate organic matter (POM) was Miscanthus‐derived in 0–10 cm depth. POM was thus the fastest cycling SOC fraction with a C₄ carbon accumulation rate of 0.33 ± 0.05 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1. Miscanthus‐derived SOC also entered the NaOCl‐resistant fraction, comprising 12% in 0–10 cm, which indicates that this fraction was not an inert SOC pool.     

Can intensification reduce emission intensity of biofuel through optimized fertilizer use? Theory and the case of oil palm in Indonesia

Closing yield gaps through higher fertilizer use increases direct greenhouse gas emissions but shares the burden over a larger production volume. Net greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints per unit product under agricultural intensification vary depending on the context, scale and accounting method. Life cycle analysis of footprints includes attributable emissions due to (i) land conversion (‘fixed cost’); (ii) external inputs used (‘variable cost’); (iii) crop production (‘agronomic efficiency’); and (iv) postharvest transport and processing (‘proportional’ cost). The interplay between fixed and variable costs results in a nuanced opportunity for intermediate levels of intensification to minimize footprints. The fertilizer level that minimizes the footprint may differ from the economic optimum. The optimization problem can be solved algebraically for quadratic crop fertilizer response equations. We applied this theory to data of palm oil production and fertilizer use from 23 plantations across the Indonesian production range. The current EU threshold requiring at least 35% emission saving for biofuel use can never be achieved by palm oil if produced: (i) on peat soils, or (ii) on mineral soils where the C debt due to conversion is larger than 20 Mg C ha^?1, if the footprint is calculated using an emission ratio of N₂O–N/N fertilizer of 4%. At current fertilizer price levels in Indonesia, the economically optimized N fertilizer rate is 344–394 kg N ha^?1, while the reported mean N fertilizer rate is 141 kg N ha^?1 yr^?1 and rates of 74–277 kg N ha^?1 would minimize footprints, for a N₂O–N/N fertilizer ratio of 4–1%, respectively. At a C debt of 30 Mg C ha^?1, these values are 200–310 kg N ha^?1. Sustainable weighting of ecology and economics would require a higher fertilizer/yield price ratio, depending on C debt. Increasing production by higher fertilizer use from current 67% to 80% of attainable yields would not decrease footprints in current production conditions.     

Attribution of climate change: a methodology to estimate the potential contribution to increases in potato yield in Scotland since 1960

Maincrop potato yields in Scotland have increased by 30–35 t ha^?1 since 1960 as a result of many changes, but has changing climate contributed anything to this? The purpose of this work was to answer this question. Daily weather data for the period 1960–2006 were analysed for five locations covering the zones of potato growing on the east coast of Scotland (between 55.213 and 57.646 N) to determine trends in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. A physiologically based potato yield model was validated using data obtained from a long‐term field trial in eastern Scotland and then employed to simulate crop development and potential yield at each of the five sites. Over the 47 years, there were significant increases in annual air and 30 cm soil temperatures (0.27 and 0.30 K decade^?1, respectively), but no significant changes in annual precipitation or in the timing of the last frost in spring and the first frost of autumn. There was no evidence of any north to south gradient of warming. Simulated emergence and canopy closure became earlier at all five sites over the period with the advance being greater in the north (3.7 and 3.6 days decade^?1, respectively) than the south (0.5 and 0.8 days decade^?1, respectively). Potential yield increased with time, generally reflecting the increased duration of the green canopy, at average rates of 2.8 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for chitted seed (sprouted prior to planting) and 2.5 t ha^?1 decade^?1 for unchitted seed. The measured warming could contribute potential yield increases of up to 13.2 t ha^?1 for chitted potato (range 7.1–19.3 t ha^?1) and 11.5 t ha^?1 for unchitted potato (range 7.1–15.5 t ha^?1) equivalent to 34–39% of the increased potential yield over the period or 23–26% of the increase in actual measured yields.     

Soil nutrient budgets following projected corn stover harvest for biofuel production in the conterminous United States

Increasing demand for food and biofuel feedstocks may substantially affect soil nutrient budgets, especially in the United States where there is great potential for corn (Zea mays L) stover as a biofuel feedstock. This study was designed to evaluate impacts of projected stover harvest scenarios on budgets of soil nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) currently and in the future across the conterminous United States. The required and removed N, P, and K amounts under each scenario were estimated on the basis of both their average contents in grain and stover and from an empirical model. Our analyses indicate a small depletion of soil N (?4 ± 35 kg ha^?1) and K (?6 ± 36 kg ha^?1) and a moderate surplus of P (37 ± 21 kg ha^?1) currently on the national average, but with a noticeable variation from state to state. After harvesting both grain and projected stover, the deficits of soil N, P, and K were estimated at 114–127, 26–27, and 36–53 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2006–2010; 131–173, 29–32, and 41–96 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2020; and 161–207, 35–39, and 51–111 kg ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively, in 2050. This study indicates that the harvestable stover amount derived from the minimum stover requirement for maintaining soil organic carbon level scenarios under current fertilization rates can be sustainable for soil nutrient supply and corn production at present, but the deficit of P and K at the national scale would become larger in the future.     

Profitability of Willow Biomass Crops Affected by Incentive Programs

The economics of willow biomass crops are strongly influenced by yield, production, and harvesting costs and the delivered price for biomass. Under current management practices, willow biomass crops with yields of 12 oven-dried metric tons (odt)?ha^?1 year^?1 and a delivered price of $60 odt^?1 have an internal rate of return (IRR) of about 5.5 %. Yields below 9 odt ha^?1 year^?1 have an IRR <0 %. We examined the impact of different incentive programs on the returns from willow biomass crops and the hectares or tons of willow biomass supported across a range of yields. Incentive programs examined included establishment grants (EG), annual payments (AIP), low cost startup loans, and matching payments offered by two existing programs, the Conservation Resource Program (CRP) and more recently the Biomass Crop Assistance Program (BCAP). EGs covering 75 % of the establishment costs provide high returns for growers on medium to high-productivity sites. Stand-alone AIPs with payments of $124 ha^?1 year^?1 paid over 5–15 years had little impact on profitability for growers but were costly for a funding agency. Low-cost loans with an interest rate of 2–4 % are one of the least expensive approaches ($1.3–6.6 odt^?1) and improve profitability for medium- and high-yielding (8–16 odt ha^?1 year^?1) sites. A matching payment incentive providing $50 per odt delivered was the only individual incentive approach that made low-yielding sites (6 odt ha^?1 year^?1) profitable but was costly per odt compared to other incentives. Current CRP incentives made willow profitable across all productivity scenarios. The BCAP program generates higher profits for all productivity scenarios but comes at a higher cost. Effective financial incentives need to be well designed and monitored so that the target audience is reached and the intended policy goals are attained.     

Greenhouse gas balance due to the conversion of sugarcane areas from burned to green harvest,considering other conservationist management practices

There is a growing need for all productive sectors to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation techniques to reduce the enhanced greenhouse effect. However, the challenge to the agricultural sector is reducing net emissions while increasing production to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and biofuel. This study focuses on the changes in the GHG balance when sugarcane areas are converted from burned harvest (BH) to green harvest (GH, mechanized harvest), including the changes caused by the adoption of conservationist practices such as reduced tillage and a 4‐month crop rotation with Crotalaria juncea L. during sugarcane replanting. Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2006) methodologies, the annual emission balance includes both agricultural and mobile sources of GHG, according to the mean annual consumption of supplies per hectare. The potential soil carbon accumulation was also considered in the GH plot. The total amounts of GHG were 2651.9 and 2316.4 kg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1 for BH and GH, respectively. Factoring in a mean annual soil carbon accumulation rate of 888.1 kg CO₂ ha^?1 yr^?1 due to the input from long‐term crop residues associated with the conversion from BH to GH, the emission balance in GH decreased to 1428.3 kg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1. A second decrease occurs when a reduced tillage strategy is adopted instead of conventional tillage during the replanting season in the GH plot, which helps reduce the total emission balance to 1180.3 kg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1. Moreover, the conversion of sugarcane from BH to GH, with the adoption of a crop rotation with Crotalaria juncea L. as well as reduced tillage during sugarcane replanting, would result in a smaller GHG balance of 1064.6 kg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1, providing an effect strategy for GHG mitigation while still providing cleaner sugar and ethanol production in southern Brazil.