Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional‐ and local‐scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral–algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5–2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.     

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef‐building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long‐term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low‐ and high‐climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM‐resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985–2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30–50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2–1.0°C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.     

Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.     

Resilience in reef‐building corals: The ecological and evolutionary importance of the host response to thermal stress

Coral reefs are under extreme threat due to a number of stressors, but temperature increases due to changing climate are the most severe. Rising ocean temperatures coupled with local extremes lead to extensive bleaching, where the coral‐algal symbiosis breaks down and corals may die, compromising the structure and function of reefs. Although the symbiotic nature of the coral colony has historically been a focus of research on coral resilience, the host itself is a foundational component in the response to thermal stress. Fixed effects in the coral host set trait baselines through evolutionary processes, acting on many loci of small effect to create mosaics of thermal tolerance across latitudes and individual coral reefs. These genomic differences can be strongly heritable, producing wide variation among clones of different genotypes or families of a specific larval cross. Phenotypic plasticity is overlaid on these baselines and a growing body of knowledge demonstrates the potential for acclimatization of reef‐building corals through a variety of mechanisms that promote resilience and stress tolerance. The long‐term persistence of coral reefs will require many of these mechanisms to adjust to warmer temperatures within a generation, bridging the gap to reproductive events that allow recombination of standing diversity and adaptive change. Business‐as‐usual climate scenarios will probably lead to the loss of some coral populations or species in the future, so the interaction between intragenerational effects and evolutionary pressure is critical for the survival of reefs.     

Differential stability of photosynthetic membranes and fatty acid composition at elevated temperature in Symbiodinium

Coral reefs are threatened by increasing surface seawater temperatures resulting from climate change. Reef-building corals symbiotic with dinoflagellates in the genus Symbiodinium experience dramatic reductions in algal densities when exposed to temperatures above the long-term local summer average, leading to a phenomenon called coral bleaching. Although the temperature-dependent loss in photosynthetic function of the algal symbionts has been widely recognized as one of the early events leading to coral bleaching, there is considerable debate regarding the actual damage site. We have tested the relative thermal stability and composition of membranes in Symbiodinium exposed to high temperature. Our results show that melting curves of photosynthetic membranes from different symbiotic dinoflagellates substantiate a species-specific sensitivity to high temperature, while variations in fatty acid composition under high temperature rather suggest a complex process in which various modifications in lipid composition may be involved. Our results do not support the role of unsaturation of fatty acids of the thylakoid membrane as being mechanistically involved in bleaching nor as being a dependable tool for the diagnosis of thermal susceptibility of symbiotic reef corals.     

Caribbean mesophotic coral ecosystems are unlikely climate change refugia

Deeper coral reefs experience reduced temperatures and light and are often shielded from localized anthropogenic stressors such as pollution and fishing. The deep reef refugia hypothesis posits that light‐dependent stony coral species at deeper depths are buffered from thermal stress and will avoid bleaching‐related mass mortalities caused by increasing sea surface temperatures under climate change. This hypothesis has not been tested because data collection on deeper coral reefs is difficult. Here we show that deeper (mesophotic) reefs, 30–75 m depth, in the Caribbean are not refugia because they have lower bleaching threshold temperatures than shallow reefs. Over two thermal stress events, mesophotic reef bleaching was driven by a bleaching threshold that declines 0.26 °C every +10 m depth. Thus, the main premise of the deep reef refugia hypothesis that cooler environments are protective is incorrect; any increase in temperatures above the local mean warmest conditions can lead to thermal stress and bleaching. Thus, relatively cooler temperatures can no longer be considered a de facto refugium for corals and it is likely that many deeper coral reefs are as vulnerable to climate change as shallow water reefs.     

Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate‐related temperature stress

Thermal‐stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal‐stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal‐stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this “moderating turbidity” range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.     

Boring sponges,an increasing threat for coral reefs affected by bleaching events

Coral bleaching is a stress response of corals induced by a variety of factors, but these events have become more frequent and intense in response to recent climate‐change‐related temperature anomalies. We tested the hypothesis that coral reefs affected by bleaching events are currently heavily infested by boring sponges, which are playing a significant role in the destruction of their physical structure. Seventeen reefs that cover the entire distributional range of corals along the Mexican Pacific coast were studied between 2005/2006, and later between 2009/2010. Most of these coral reefs were previously impacted by bleaching events, which resulted in coral mortalities. Sponge abundance and species richness was used as an indicator of bioerosion, and coral cover was used to describe the present condition of coral reefs. Coral reefs are currently highly invaded (46% of the samples examined) by a very high diversity of boring sponges (20 species); being the coral reef framework the substrate most invaded (56%) followed by the rubbles (45%), and the living colonies (36%). The results also indicated that boring sponges are promoting the dislodgment of live colonies and large fragments from the framework. In summary, the eastern coral reefs affected by bleaching phenomena, mainly provoked by El Niño, present a high diversity and abundance of boring sponges, which are weakening the union of the colony with the reef framework and promoting their dislodgment. These phenomena will probably become even more intense and severe, as temperatures are projected to continue to rise under the scenarios for future climate change, which could place many eastern coral reefs beyond their survival threshold.     

Water contamination reduces the tolerance of coral larvae to thermal stress

Coral reefs are highly susceptible to climate change, with elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) posing one of the main threats to coral survival. Successful recruitment of new colonies is important for the recovery of degraded reefs following mortality events. Coral larvae require relatively uncontaminated substratum on which to metamorphose into sessile polyps, and the increasing pollution of coastal waters therefore constitutes an additional threat to reef resilience. Here we develop and analyse a model of larval metamorphosis success for two common coral species to quantify the interactive effects of water pollution (copper contamination) and SST. We identify thresholds of temperature and pollution that prevent larval metamorphosis, and evaluate synergistic interactions between these stressors. Our analyses show that halving the concentration of Cu can protect corals from the negative effects of a 2-3°C increase in SST. These results demonstrate that effective mitigation of local impacts can reduce negative effects of global stressors.     

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low‐latitude climatic conditions have no present‐day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo‐Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.     

Climate‐change refugia in the sheltered bays of Palau: analogs of future reefs

Coral bleaching and mortality are predicted to increase as climate change‐induced thermal‐stress events become more frequent. Although many studies document coral bleaching and mortality patterns, few studies have examined deviations from the expected positive relationships among thermal stress, coral bleaching, and coral mortality. This study examined the response of >30,000 coral colonies at 80 sites in Palau, during a regional thermal‐stress event in 2010. We sought to determine the spatial and taxonomic nature of bleaching and examine whether any habitats were comparatively resistant to thermal stress. Bleaching was most severe in the northwestern lagoon, in accordance with satellite‐derived maximum temperatures and anomalous temperatures above the long‐term averages. Pocillopora populations suffered the most extensive bleaching and the highest mortality. However, in the bays where temperatures were higher than elsewhere, bleaching and mortality were low. The coral‐community composition, constant exposure to high temperatures, and high vertical attenuation of light caused by naturally high suspended particulate matter buffered the corals in bays from the 2010 regional thermal‐stress event. Yet, nearshore reefs are also most vulnerable to land‐use change. Therefore, nearshore reefs should be given high conservation status because they provide refugia for coral populations as the oceans continue to warm.     

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming‐induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias‐corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present‐day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2–10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20–80% compared with the ‘no adaptive response’ prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high‐frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high‐frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.     

Augmented coral reef monitoring using a stationary reef monitoring system

Coral reef monitoring is a reliable tool to assess the effect of climate change as corals are sensitive to increases in water temperatures between 30 °C and 35 °C resulting in bleaching - a whitening process when the corals lose their color and the reefs begin to die. Existing satellite-based monitoring products facilitate coral bleaching monitoring over large spatial scales, but their use in predicting local scale stress that influences the bleaching severity across reefs is limited. In this paper, we describe a Stationary Reef Monitoring System (SRMS) that monitors the time evolution of coral reefs through the photography of nearby coral clusters. Simultaneously, the SRMS measures and records environmental parameters such as temperature, solar irradiance (PAR), and salinity in the waters surrounding the coral colonies. When deployed in the sea, the SRMS detected a 0.1–0.4 °C variability in temperature between the in situ and satellite datasets. The SRMS uses color photography along with quantitative data on environmental parameters to monitor the health of corals and eliminates the need for physical/visual verification of coral health by a diver. By this approach, one can determine the stress thresholds of corals and identify the vulnerable and resilient reefs so as to prioritize conservation efforts.     

Species-Specific Responses of Corals to Bleaching Events on Anthropogenically Turbid Reefs on Okinawa Island,Japan, over a 15-year Period (1995–2009)

Coral bleaching, triggered by elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) has caused a decline in coral cover and changes in the abundances of corals on reefs worldwide. Coral decline can be exacerbated by the effects of local stressors like turbidity, yet some reefs with a natural history of turbidity can support healthy and resilient coral communities. However, little is known about responses of coral communities to bleaching events on anthropogenically turbid reefs as a result of recent (post World War II) terrestrial runoff. Analysis of region-scale coral cover and species abundance at 17–20 sites on the turbid reefs of Okinawa Island (total of 79 species, 30 genera, and 13 families) from 1995 to 2009 indicates that coral cover decreased drastically, from 24.4% to 7.5% (1.1%/year), subsequent to bleaching events in 1998 and 2001. This dramatic decrease in coral cover corresponded to the demise of Acropora species (e.g., A. digitifera) by 2009, when Acropora had mostly disappeared from turbid reefs on Okinawa Island. In contrast, Merulinidae species (e.g., Dipsastraea pallida/speciosa/favus) and Porites species (e.g., P. lutea/australiensis), which are characterized by tolerance to thermal stress, survived on turbid reefs of Okinawa Island throughout the period. Our results suggest that high turbidity, influenced by recent terrestrial runoff, could have caused a reduction in resilience of Acropora species to severe thermal stress events, because the corals could not have adapted to a relatively recent decline in water quality. The coral reef ecosystems of Okinawa Island will be severely impoverished if Acropora species fail to recover.     

Historical temperature variability affects coral response to heat stress

Coral bleaching is the breakdown of symbiosis between coral animal hosts and their dinoflagellate algae symbionts in response to environmental stress. On large spatial scales, heat stress is the most common factor causing bleaching, which is predicted to increase in frequency and severity as the climate warms. There is evidence that the temperature threshold at which bleaching occurs varies with local environmental conditions and background climate conditions. We investigated the influence of past temperature variability on coral susceptibility to bleaching, using the natural gradient in peak temperature variability in the Gilbert Islands, Republic of Kiribati. The spatial pattern in skeletal growth rates and partial mortality scars found in massive Porites sp. across the central and northern islands suggests that corals subject to larger year-to-year fluctuations in maximum ocean temperature were more resistant to a 2004 warm-water event. In addition, a subsequent 2009 warm event had a disproportionately larger impact on those corals from the island with lower historical heat stress, as indicated by lower concentrations of triacylglycerol, a lipid utilized for energy, as well as thinner tissue in those corals. This study indicates that coral reefs in locations with more frequent warm events may be more resilient to future warming, and protection measures may be more effective in these regions.     

A coral reef refuge in the Red Sea

The stability and persistence of coral reefs in the decades to come is uncertain due to global warming and repeated bleaching events that will lead to reduced resilience of these ecological and socio‐economically important ecosystems. Identifying key refugia is potentially important for future conservation actions. We suggest that the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA) (Red Sea) may serve as a reef refugium due to a unique suite of environmental conditions. Our hypothesis is based on experimental detection of an exceptionally high bleaching threshold of northern Red Sea corals and on the potential dispersal of coral planulae larvae through a selective thermal barrier estimated using an ocean model. We propose that millennia of natural selection in the form of a thermal barrier at the southernmost end of the Red Sea have selected coral genotypes that are less susceptible to thermal stress in the northern Red Sea, delaying bleaching events in the GoA by at least a century.     

Modeled connectivity of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora millepora</Emphasis> populations from reefs of the Spratly Islands and the greater South China Sea

The Spratly Island archipelago is a remote network of coral reefs and islands in the South China Sea that is a likely source of coral larvae to the greater region, but about which little is known. Using a particle-tracking model driven by oceanographic data from the Coral Triangle region, we simulated both spring and fall spawning events of Acropora millepora, a common coral species, over a 46-yr period (1960–2005). Simulated population biology of A. millepora included the acquisition and loss of competency, settlement over appropriate benthic habitat, and mortality based on experimental data. The simulations aimed to provide insights into the connectivity of reefs within the Spratly Islands, the settlement of larvae on reefs of the greater South China Sea, and the potential dispersal range of reef organisms from the Spratly Islands. Results suggest that (1) the Spratly Islands may be a significant source of A. millepora larvae for the Palawan reefs (Philippines) and some of the most isolated reefs of the South China Sea; and (2) the relatively isolated western Spratly Islands have limited source reefs supplying them with larvae and fewer of their larvae successfully settling on other reefs. Examination of particle dispersal without biology (settlement and mortality) suggests that larval connectivity is possible throughout the South China Sea and into the Coral Triangle region. Strong differences in the spring versus fall larval connectivity and dispersal highlight the need for a greater understanding of spawning dynamics of the region. This study confirms that the Spratly Islands are likely an important source of larvae for the South China Sea and Coral Triangle region.     

Recruitment and larval connectivity of a remnant Acropora community in the Arabian Gulf,United Arab Emirates

Coral cover and community structure in the Arabian Gulf have changed considerably in recent decades. Recurrent bleaching events have dramatically reduced the abundance of previously dominant Acropora corals and have given space to other more thermally resistant coral taxa. The loss of Acropora spp. has reduced reef structural complexity and associated biodiversity. Sir Bu Nair Island (SBN) is a nature reserve in the United Arab Emirates that sustains some of the last dense and extensive Acropora stands in the southern Gulf. This study investigated coral recruitment at a southern coral reef on SBN and examined larval dispersal and reef connectivity between SBN and other local and regional reefs through an agent-based model coupled with a 3D hydrodynamic model. Recruitment was surveyed with settlement tiles deployed from April to September 2019. Contrary to other reefs in the Gulf, we found that Acropora is indeed the major coral recruiter settling at SBN reefs, followed by Porites. The models indicate that SBN reefs are mostly self-seeding but also connected to other reefs in the Gulf. SBN can supply coral larvae to the neighbouring islands Siri and Abu Musa, and nearby reefs along with the north-eastern Emirates, Iranian coast and Strait of Hormuz. Findings highlight the importance of SBN to protect remnant populations of the locally almost extinct Acropora in a region where natural coral recovery is increasingly sparse.

     

Century‐scale records of coral growth rates indicate that local stressors reduce coral thermal tolerance threshold

Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent, and is typically associated with abnormally high water temperatures and solar irradiance. A key question in coral reef ecology is whether local stressors reduce the coral thermal tolerance threshold, leading to increased bleaching incidence. Using tree‐ring techniques, we produced master chronologies of growth rates in the dominant reef builder, massive Montastraea faveolata corals, over the past 75–150 years from the Mesoamerican Reef. Our records indicate that the 1998 mass bleaching event was unprecedented in the past century, despite evidence that water temperatures and solar irradiance in the region were as high or higher mid‐century than in more recent decades. We tested the influence on coral extension rate from the interactive effects of human populations and thermal stress, calculated here with degree‐heating‐months (DHM). We find that when the effects of chronic local stressors, represented by human population, are taken into account, recent reductions in extension rate are better explained than when DHM is used as the sole predictor. Therefore, the occurrence of mass bleaching on the Mesoamerican reef in 1998 appears to stem from reduced thermal tolerance due to the synergistic impacts of chronic local stressors.     

Atmospheric dimethysulphide production from corals in the Great Barrier Reef and links to solar radiation, climate and coral bleaching

Coral zooxanthellae contain high concentrations of dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP), the precursor of dimethylsulphide (DMS), an aerosol substance that could affect cloud cover, solar radiation and ocean temperatures. Acropora intermedia a dominant staghorn coral in the Indo-Pacific region, contain some of the highest concentrations of DMSP reported in the literature but no studies have shown that corals produce atmospheric DMS in situ and thus could potentially participate in sea surface temperature (SST) regulation over reefs; or how production varies during coral bleaching. We show that A. intermedia from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) produces significant amounts of atmospheric DMS, in chamber experiments, indicating that coral reefs in this region could contribute to an “ocean thermostat” similar to that described for the western Pacific warm pool, where significantly fewer coral reefs have bleached during the last 25?years because of a cloud-SST feedback. However, when Acropora intermedia was stressed with higher light levels and seawater temperatures DMSP production, an indicator of zooxanthellae expulsion, increased markedly in the chamber, whilst atmospheric DMS emissions almost completely shut down. These results suggest that during increased light levels and seawater temperatures in the GBR coral shut-down atmospheric DMS aerosol production, potentially increasing solar radiation levels over reefs and exacerbating coral bleaching.