Spatial heterogeneity of climate change in an Afromontane centre of endemism

Broad‐scale assessments of how climate change might impact mountain ecosystems, especially in areas of high biodiversity and endemism, are compromised by the lack of localised climate feedback in global circulation models. Here, we use regionally downscaled climate models to highlight how spatial variation in forecast change could impact rare plant distributions differentially across the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania and Kenya, part of the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot. Concordant with the theory that climatic stability facilitates the accumulation of rare species, we find significant positive correlations between endemic plant richness and future climatic persistence within the dispersal‐limiting sky islands of this mountain archipelago. Further, we explore the hypothesis that mountain plants will move upslope in response to climate change and find that, conversely, some species are predicted to tend downslope, despite warmer annual conditions, driven by changes in seasonality and water availability. Importantly, two thirds of the modelled plant species are predicted to respond in different directions in different parts of their ranges, exemplifying the potential for individualistic responses of species and disjunct populations to environmental change, and the need for regional focus in climate change impact assessment. Conservation planners, and more broadly those charged with developing climate adaption policy, are advised to take caution in inferring local patterns of change from zoomed perspectives of broad‐scale models. Moreover, a preoccupation with mean annual temperature as the principal driver of ecosystem change is misguided and could compromise efforts to make conservation plans resilient to future climate change. Faced with spatially complex and inherently uncertain future conditions, sensible priorities are to restore forest connectivity and to underpin adaption strategies with knowledge of how ecosystems and people have adapted to previous episodes of rapid change.     

Modelling potential Pleistocene habitat corridors between Afromontane forest regions

The unusually high floral and faunal similarity between the different regions of the Afromontane archipelago has been noted by biogeographers since the late 1800s. A possible explanation for this similarity is the spread of montane habitat into the intervening lowlands during the glacial periods of the Pleistocene, allowing biotic exchange between mountain ranges. In this study, we sought to infer the existence and most likely positions of these potential habitat corridors. We focused on sixteen Afromontane endemic tree, shrub, and bird species in the Cameroon Volcanic Line, East African Rift and Great Escarpment. Species were chosen based on distribution above 1200–1500 m in at least two of the major Afromontane regions. Ecological niche models were developed for each species in the present and projected to the mid-Holocene and the last glacial maximum (LGM). Models were thresholded to create binary maps of presence/absence and then summed across taxa to estimate potential LGM and mid-Holocene distributions. We found widespread climatic suitability for our montane taxa throughout the lowlands of Central Africa during the LGM, connecting all regions of the Afromontane archipelago except the Ethiopian Highlands and the Dahomey Gap. During the mid-Holocene, we noted more limited climatic suitability for fewer species in lowland areas. Although we set out to test predictions derived from alternatively hypothesized corridors, we instead found widespread climatic suitability connecting Afromontane regions across the entire Congo Basin for all species.

     

Seeking alternative stable states in a deep lake

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Biogeography of the grasses (Poaceae): a phylogenetic approach to reveal evolutionary history in geographical space and geological time

The grasses (Poaceae) are the fifth most diverse family of angiosperms, including 800 genera and more than 10 000 species. Few phylogenetic studies have tried to investigate palaeo‐biogeographical and palaeo‐ecological scenarios that may have led to present‐day distribution and diversity of grasses at the family level. We produced a dated phylogenetic tree based on combined plastid DNA sequences and a comprehensive sample of Poaceae. Furthermore, we produced an additional tree using a supermatrix of morphological and molecular data that included all 800 grass genera so that ancestral biogeography and ecological habitats could be inferred. We used a likelihood‐based method, which allows the estimation of ancestral polymorphism in both biogeographical and ecological analyses for large data sets. The origin of Poaceae was retrieved as African and shade adapted. The crown node of the BEP + PACCMAD clade was dated at 57 Mya, in the early Eocene. Grasses dispersed to all continents by approximately 60 million years after their Gondwanan origin in the late Cretaceous. PACCMAD taxa adapted to open habitats as early as the late Eocene, a date consistent with recent phytolith fossil data for North America. C₄ photosynthesis first originated in Africa, at least for Chloridoideae in the Eocene at c. 30 Mya. The BEP clade members adapted to open habitats later than PACCMAD members; this was inferred to occur in Eurasia in the Oligocene. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 162 , 543–557.     

Waxing and waning of forests: Late Quaternary biogeography of southeast Africa

African ecosystems are at great risk. Despite their ecological and economic importance, long‐standing ideas about African forest ecology and biogeography, such as the timing of changes in forest extent and the importance of disturbance, have been unable to be tested due to a lack of sufficiently long records. Here, we present the longest continuous terrestrial record of late Quaternary vegetation from southern Africa collected to date from a drill core from Lake Malawi covering the last ~600,000 years. Pollen analysis permits us to investigate changes in vegetation structure and composition over multiple climatic transitions. We observe nine phases of forest expansion and collapse related to regional hydroclimate change. The development of desert, steppe and grassland vegetation during arid periods is likely dynamically linked to thresholds in regional hydrology associated with lake level and moisture recycling. Species composition of these dryland ecosystems varied greatly and is unlike the vegetation found at Malawi today, with assemblages suggesting strong Somali‐Masai affinities. Furthermore, nearly all semiarid assemblages contain low forest taxa abundances, suggesting that moist lowland gallery forests formed refugia along waterways during arid times. When the region was wet, forests were species‐rich and very high afromontane tree abundances suggest frequent widespread lowland colonization by modern high elevation trees. Furthermore, species composition varied little amongst forest phases until ~80 ka when disturbance tolerant tree taxa characteristic of the modern vegetation increased in abundance. The waxing and waning of forests has important implications for understanding the processes that control modern tropical vegetation biogeography as well as the environments of early humans across Africa. Finally, this work highlights the resilience of montane forests during previous warm intervals, which is relevant for future climate change; however, we point to a fundamental shift in disturbance regimes which are crucial for the structure and composition of modern East African landscapes.     

Climate,physiological tolerance and sex‐biased dispersal shape genetic structure of Neotropical orchid bees

Understanding the impact of past climatic events on the demographic history of extant species is critical for predicting species' responses to future climate change. Palaeoclimatic instability is a major mechanism of lineage diversification in taxa with low dispersal and small geographical ranges in tropical ecosystems. However, the impact of these climatic events remains questionable for the diversification of species with high levels of gene flow and large geographical distributions. In this study, we investigate the impact of Pleistocene climate change on three Neotropical orchid bee species (Eulaema bombiformis, E. meriana and E. cingulata) with transcontinental distributions and different physiological tolerances. We first generated ecological niche models to identify species‐specific climatically stable areas during Pleistocene climatic oscillations. Using a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear markers, we inferred calibrated phylogenies and estimated historical demographic parameters to reconstruct the phylogeographical history of each species. Our results indicate species with narrower physiological tolerance experienced less suitable habitat during glaciations and currently exhibit strong population structure in the mitochondrial genome. However, nuclear markers with low and high mutation rates show lack of association with geography. These results combined with lower migration rate estimates from the mitochondrial than the nuclear genome suggest male‐biased dispersal. We conclude that despite large effective population sizes and capacity for long‐distance dispersal, climatic instability is an important mechanism of maternal lineage diversification in orchid bees. Thus, these Neotropical pollinators are susceptible to disruption of genetic connectivity in the event of large‐scale climatic changes.     

Scale dependence of temperature as an abiotic driver of species' distributions

Aim Scale dependence of patterns and processes remains one of the major unresolved problems in ecology. The responses of ecosystems to environmental stressors are reported to be strongly scale dependent, but projections of the effects of climate change on species' distributions are still restricted to particular scales and knowledge about scale dependence is lacking. Here we propose that the scale dependence of those species' niche dimensions related to climate change is strongly related to the strength of climatic cross‐scale links. More specifically, we hypothesize that the strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are related to high cross‐scale similarity (low scale dependence) of species' realized temperature niches and, thus, species' spatial distributions. Location This study covers seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale, ranging from local‐scale (below a metre) and regional‐scale (kilometre) investigations in central European wetland ecosystems to continental‐scale (thousands of kilometres) studies of species' distributions. Methods We combined data on the spatial occurrence of species (vegetation records at local and regional scales, digitized distribution maps at the continental scale) with information about the corresponding temperature regime of vascular plant species occurring in environmentally stable wetland ecosystems characterized by strong cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions. Results We observed high cross‐scale similarity of the characteristics of species temperature niches across seven orders of magnitude of spatial scale. However, the importance of temperature as an abiotic driver decreased nonlinearly with decreasing scale, suggesting greater importance of additional (biotic) drivers of species' occurrence at small spatial scales. Main conclusions We report high cross‐scale similarity of realized temperature niches for species inhabiting ecosystems where small‐scale environmental noise is low and cross‐scale links between micro‐ and macroclimatic conditions are strong. By highlighting a strong relationship between abiotic and biotic cross‐scale similarity, our results will help to improve niche‐based species distribution modelling, one of the major assessment tools for determining the ecological effects of climate change.     

Determinants of palm species distributions across Africa: the relative roles of climate,non‐climatic environmental factors,and spatial constraints

Most of the Earth's biodiversity resides in the tropics. However, a comprehensive understanding of which factors control range limits of tropical species is still lacking. Climate is often thought to be the predominant range‐determining mechanism at large spatial scales. Alternatively, species’ ranges may be controlled by soil or other environmental factors, or by non‐environmental factors such as biotic interactions, dispersal barriers, intrinsic population dynamics, or time‐limited expansion from place of origin or past refugia. How species ranges are controlled is of key importance for predicting their responses to future global change. Here, we use a novel implementation of species distribution modelling (SDM) to assess the degree to which African continental‐scale species distributions in a keystone tropical group, the palms (Arecaceae), are controlled by climate, non‐climatic environmental factors, or non‐environmental spatial constraints. A comprehensive data set on African palm species occurrences was assembled and analysed using the SDM algorithm Maxent in combination with climatic and non‐climatic environmental predictors (habitat, human impact), as well as spatial eigenvector mapping (spatial filters). The best performing models always included spatial filters, suggesting that palm species distributions are always to some extent limited by non‐environmental constraints. Models which included climate provided significantly better predictions than models that included only non‐climatic environmental predictors, the latter having no discernible effect beyond the climatic control. Hence, at the continental scale, climate constitutes the only strong environmental control of palm species distributions in Africa. With regard to the most important climatic predictors of African palm distributions, water‐related factors were most important for 25 of the 29 species analysed. The strong response of palm distributions to climate in combination with the importance of non‐environmental spatial constraints suggests that African palms will be sensitive to future climate changes, but that their ability to track suitable climatic conditions will be spatially constrained.     

The discordance of diversification: evolution in the tropical‐montane frogs of the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania

Species with similar geographical distribution patterns are often assumed to have a shared biogeographical history, an assumption that can be tested with a combination of molecular, spatial, and environmental data. This study investigates three lineages of Hyperolius frogs with concordant ranges within the Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot to determine whether allopatric populations of co‐distributed lineages shared a parallel biogeographical response to their shared paleoclimatic histories. The roles of refugial distributions, isolation, and climate cycles in shaping their histories are examined through Hierarchical Approximate Bayesian Computation, comparative phylogeography, and comparisons of current and past geographical distributions using ecological niche models. Results from these analyses show these three lineages to have independent evolutionary histories, which current spatial configurations of sparsely available habitat (montane wetlands) have moulded into convergent geographical ranges. In spite of independent phylogeographical histories, diversification events are temporally concentrated, implying that past vicariant events were significant at the generic level. This mixture of apparently disparate histories is likely due to quantifiably different patterns of expansion and retreat among species in response to past climate cycles. Combining climate modelling and phylogeographical data can reveal unrecognized complexities in the evolution of co‐distributed taxa.     

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation–climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire‐sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon “montane rainforest”) as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high‐resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.     

Climate change and fire effects on a prairie–woodland ecotone: projecting species range shifts with a dynamic global vegetation model

Large shifts in species ranges have been predicted under future climate scenarios based primarily on niche‐based species distribution models. However, the mechanisms that would cause such shifts are uncertain. Natural and anthropogenic fires have shaped the distributions of many plant species, but their effects have seldom been included in future projections of species ranges. Here, we examine how the combination of climate and fire influence historical and future distributions of the ponderosa pine–prairie ecotone at the edge of the Black Hills in South Dakota, USA, as simulated by MC1, a dynamic global vegetation model that includes the effects of fire, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration on vegetation dynamics. For this purpose, we parameterized MC1 for ponderosa pine in the Black Hills, designating the revised model as MC1‐WCNP. Results show that fire frequency, as affected by humidity and temperature, is central to the simulation of historical prairies in the warmer lowlands versus woodlands in the cooler, moister highlands. Based on three downscaled general circulation model climate projections for the 21st century, we simulate greater frequencies of natural fire throughout the area due to substantial warming and, for two of the climate projections, lower relative humidity. However, established ponderosa pine forests are relatively fire resistant, and areas that were initially wooded remained so over the 21st century for most of our future climate x fire management scenarios. This result contrasts with projections for ponderosa pine based on climatic niches, which suggest that its suitable habitat in the Black Hills will be greatly diminished by the middle of the 21st century. We hypothesize that the differences between the future predictions from these two approaches are due in part to the inclusion of fire effects in MC1, and we highlight the importance of accounting for fire as managed by humans in assessing both historical species distributions and future climate change effects.     

Equipped to cope with climate change: traits associated with range filling across European taxa

In order to understand the ecological effects of climate change it is essential to forecast suitable areas for species in the future. However, species’ ability to reach potentially suitable areas is also critical for species survival. These ‘range‐shift’ abilities can be studied using life‐history traits related to four range‐shift stages: emigration, movement, establishment, and proliferation. Here, we use the extent to which species’ ranges fill the climatically suitable area available (‘range filling’) as a proxy for the ability of European mammals and birds to shift their ranges under climate change. We detect which traits associate most closely with range filling. Drawing comparisons with a recent analysis for plants, we ask whether the latitudinal position of species’ ranges supports the assertion that post‐glacial range‐shift limitations cause disequilibrium between ranges and climate. We also disentangle which of the three taxonomic groups has greatest range filling. For mammals, generalists and early‐reproducing species have the greatest range filling. For birds, generalist species with high annual fecundity, which live longer than expected based on body size, have the greatest range filling. Although we consider traits related to the four range‐shift stages, only traits related to establishment and proliferation ability significantly influence range filling of mammals and birds. Species with the greatest range filling are those whose range centroid falls in the latitudinal centre of Europe, suggesting that post‐glacial range expansion is a leading cause of disequilibrium with climate, although other explanations are also possible. Range filling of plants is lower than that of mammals or birds, suggesting that plants are more range‐limited by non‐climatic factors. Therefore, plants might be face greater non‐climatic restraints on range shifts than mammals or birds.     

Integrating dynamic environmental predictors and species occurrences: Toward true dynamic species distribution models

While biological distributions are not static and change/evolve through space and time, nonstationarity of climatic and land‐use conditions is frequently neglected in species distribution models. Even recent techniques accounting for spatiotemporal variation of species occurrence basically consider the environmental predictors as static; specifically, in most studies using species distribution models, predictor values are averaged over a 50‐ or 30‐year time period. This could lead to a strong bias due to monthly/annual variation between the climatic conditions in which species' locations were recorded and those used to develop species distribution models or even a complete mismatch if locations have been recorded more recently. Moreover, the impact of land‐use change has only recently begun to be fully explored in species distribution models, but again without considering year‐specific values. Excluding dynamic climate and land‐use predictors could provide misleading estimation of species distribution. In recent years, however, open‐access spatially explicit databases that provide high‐resolution monthly and annual variation in climate (for the period 1901–2016) and land‐use (for the period 1992–2015) conditions at a global scale have become available. Combining species locations collected in a given month of a given year with the relative climatic and land‐use predictors derived from these datasets would thus lead to the development of true dynamic species distribution models (D‐SDMs), improving predictive accuracy and avoiding mismatch between species locations and predictor variables. Thus, we strongly encourage modelers to develop D‐SDMs using month‐ and year‐specific climatic data as well as year‐specific land‐use data that match the period in which species data were collected.     

Climate,competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees

Aim Species ranges have adapted during the Holocene to altering climate conditions, but it remains unclear if species will be able to keep pace with recent and future climate change. The goal of our study is to assess the influence of changing macroclimate, competition and habitat connectivity on the migration rates of 14 tree species. We also compare the projections of range shifts from species distribution models (SDMs) that incorporate realistic migration rates with classical models that assume no or unlimited migration. Location Europe. Methods We calibrated SDMs with species abundance data from 5768 forest plots from ICP Forest Level 1 in relation to climate, topography, soil and land‐use data to predict current and future tree distributions. To predict future species ranges from these models, we applied three migration scenarios: no migration, unlimited migration and realistic migration. The migration rates for the SDMs incorporating realistic migration were estimated according to macroclimate, inter‐specific competition and habitat connectivity from simulation experiments with a spatially explicit process model (TreeMig). From these relationships, we then developed a migration cost surface to constrain the predicted distributions of the SDMs. Results The distributions of early‐successional species during the 21st century predicted by SDMs that incorporate realistic migration matched quite well with the unlimited migration assumption (mean migration rate over Europe for A1fi/GRAS climate and land‐use change scenario 156.7 ± 79.1 m year^?1 and for B1/SEDG 164.3 ± 84.2 m year^?1). The predicted distributions of mid‐ to late‐successional species matched better with the no migration assumption (A1fi/GRAS, 15.2 ± 24.5 m year^?1 and B1/SEDG, 16.0 ± 25.6 m year^?1). Inter‐specific competition, which is higher under favourable growing conditions, reduced range shift velocity more than did adverse macroclimatic conditions (i.e. very cold or dry climate). Habitat fragmentation also led to considerable time lags in range shifts. Main conclusions Migration rates depend on species traits, competition, spatial habitat configuration and climatic conditions. As a result, re‐adjustments of species ranges to climate and land‐use change are complex and very individualistic, yet still quite predictable. Early‐successional species track climate change almost instantaneously while mid‐ to late‐ successional species were predicted to migrate very slowly.     

Beyond climate control on species range: The importance of soil data to predict distribution of Amazonian plant species

Aim

To evaluate the relative importance of climatic versus soil data when predicting species distributions for Amazonian plants and to gain understanding of potential range shifts under climate change.

Location

Amazon rain forest.

Methods

We produced species distribution models (SDM) at 5‐km spatial resolution for 42 plant species (trees, palms, lianas, monocot herbs and ferns) using species occurrence data from herbarium records and plot‐based inventories. We modelled species distribution with Bayesian logistic regression using either climate data only, soil data only or climate and soil data together to estimate their relative predictive powers. For areas defined as unsuitable to species occurrence, we mapped the difference between the suitability predictions obtained with climate‐only versus soil‐only models to identify regions where climate and soil might restrict species ranges independently or jointly.

Results

For 40 out of the 42 species, the best models included both climate and soil predictors. The models including only soil predictors performed better than the models including only climate predictors, but we still detected a drought‐sensitive response for most of the species. Edaphic conditions were predicted to restrict species occurrence in the centre, the north‐west and in the north‐east of Amazonia, while the climatic conditions were identified as the restricting factor in the eastern Amazonia, at the border of Roraima and Venezuela and in the Andean foothills.

Main conclusions

Our results revealed that soil data are a more important predictor than climate of plant species range in Amazonia. The strong control of species ranges by edaphic features might reduce species’ abilities to track suitable climate conditions under a drought‐increase scenario. Future challenges are to improve the quality of soil data and couple them with process‐based models to better predict species range dynamics under climate change.     

Generalized additive mixed models for disentangling long‐term trends,local anomalies,and seasonality in fruit tree phenology

Quantifying temporal patterns of ephemeral plant structures such as leaves, flowers, and fruits gives insight into both plant and animal ecology. Different scales of temporal changes in fruits, for example within‐ versus across‐year variability, are driven by different processes, but are not always easy to disentangle. We apply generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to study a long‐term fruit presence–absence data set of individual trees collected from a high‐altitude Afromontane tropical rain forest site within Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (BINP), Uganda. Our primary aim was to highlight and evaluate GAMM methodology, and quantify both intra‐ and interannual changes in fruit production. First, we conduct several simulation experiments to study the practical utility of model selection and smooth term estimation relevant for disentangling intra‐ and interannual variability. These simulations indicate that estimation of nonlinearity and seasonality is generally accurately identified using asymptotic theory. Applied to the empirical data set, we found that the forest‐level fruiting variability arises from both regular seasonality and significant interannual variability, with the years 2009–2010 in particular showing a significant increase in the presence of fruits‐driven by increased productivity of most species, and a regular annual peak associated occurring at the end of one of the two dry seasons. Our analyses illustrate a statistical framework for disentangling short‐term increases/decreases in fruiting effort while pinpointing specific times in which fruiting is atypical, providing a first step for assessing the impacts of regular and irregular (e.g., climate change) abiotic covariates on fruiting phenology. Some consequences of the rich diversity of fruiting patterns observed here for the population biology of frugivores in BINP are also discussed.     

Current and future habitat availability for Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots in northern Mexican forests

Thick‐billed Parrots (Rhynchopsitta pachyrhyncha) and Maroon‐fronted Parrots (Rhynchopsitta terrisi) are the only parrots in Mexico found in high‐elevation coniferous forests. Both species are critically endangered due to logging, and climate change is expected to further reduce their available habitat. Our objectives were to assess the present and future availability of a suitable habitat for these parrots using ecological niche models. Future climatic scenarios were estimated by overlaying the present distributions of these parrots on maps of projected biome distributions generated using a North American vegetation model. Our climatic scenarios revealed that the distribution of key habitats for both parrots will likely be affected as the climate becomes more suitable for xeric biomes. The climate associated with coniferous forests in the current range of Maroon‐fronted Parrots is predicted to disappear by 2090, and the climate associated with the key coniferous habitats of Thick‐billed Parrots may contract. However, our results also indicate that suitable climatic conditions will prevail for the high‐elevation coniferous biomes where Thick‐billed Parrots nest. The degree to which both species of parrots will be able to adapt to the new scenarios is uncertain. Some of their life history traits may allow them to respond with a combination of adaptive and spatial responses to climatic change and, in addition, suitable climatic conditions will prevail in some portions of their ranges. Actions needed to ensure the conservation of these parrots include strict control of logging and integration of rapid response teams for fire management within the potential foraging ranges of nesting pairs. A landscape with a greater proportion of restored forests would also aid in the recovery of current populations of Thick‐billed and Maroon‐fronted parrots and facilitate their responses to climate change.     

Tectonics,topography, and mammalian diversity

Terrestrial vertebrates show striking changes in species richness across topographic gradients. For mammals, nearly twice as many species per unit area occur in topographically complex regions as in adjacent lowlands. The geological context of this pervasive biogeographic pattern suggests that tectonic processes have a first‐order impact on regional diversity. I evaluate ecological, evolutionary, and historical influences of tectonics and topography on the regional diversity of terrestrial mammals, focusing on the hypothesis that diversification rates are higher in active versus passive tectonic settings. Ten predictions follow from this hypothesis. 1) The timing of peaks in speciation should be congruent with the timescale for tectonic episodes. 2) The rates of speciation and genetic differentiation of populations should be greater for species inhabiting topographically complex regions than spatially continuous landscapes. 3) If topographic complexity per se promotes diversification, then a cluster of young divergences should occur for montane species compared to lowland relatives. 4) Endemism in tectonically active regions should reflect origination within the region rather than range reduction from larger areas. 5) Extinction rates should differ for lineages in tectonically active regions compared to adjacent lowlands. 6) The relationship between local and regional species richness should differ between topographic settings because of higher beta diversity in topographically complex regions. 7) Species originating in topographically complex regions should colonize adjacent lowlands more often than the reverse pattern. 8) North‐south mountain ranges should have higher regional species richness than east‐west mountain ranges. 9) Areas with multiple mountain ranges should have higher regional species richness than comparable areas with single mountain ranges. 10) Global climate changes should affect diversification in tectonically active regions. Research addressing these topics places elevational diversity gradients into a geohistorical context and integrates data from modern biotas and the fossil record.     

Effects of climate legacies on above‐ and belowground community assembly

The role of climatic legacies in regulating community assembly of above‐ and belowground species in terrestrial ecosystems remains largely unexplored and poorly understood. Here, we report on two separate regional and continental empirical studies, including >500 locations, aiming to identify the relative importance of climatic legacies (climatic anomaly over the last 20,000 years) compared to current climates in predicting the relative abundance of ecological clusters formed by species strongly co‐occurring within two independent above‐ and belowground networks. Climatic legacies explained a significant portion of the variation in the current community assembly of terrestrial ecosystems (up to 15.4%) that could not be accounted for by current climate, soil properties, and management. Changes in the relative abundance of ecological clusters linked to climatic legacies (e.g., past temperature) showed the potential to indirectly alter other clusters, suggesting cascading effects. Our work illustrates the role of climatic legacies in regulating ecosystem community assembly and provides further insights into possible winner and loser community assemblies under global change scenarios.     

Dominant climate influences on North American bird distributions

Aim Geographic distributions of species are constrained by several factors acting at different scales, with climate assumed to be a major determinant at broad extents. Recent studies, however, have challenged this statement and indicated that climate may not dominate among the factors governing geographic distributions of species. Here, we argue that these results are misleading due to the lack of consideration of the geographic area that has been accessible to the species. Location North America. Methods We generated null distributions for 75 North American endemic and 19 non‐endemic bird species. For each species, climatic envelopes of observed and null distributions were modelled using neural networks and generalized linear models, and seven climatic predictors. Values of the area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC) based on models of observed distributions were compared with corresponding AUC values for the null distributions. Results More than 82% of the endemic species showed AUC higher for the observed than for the null distributions, while 63% of the non‐endemic species showed such a pattern. Main conclusions We demonstrate a dominant climatic signal in shaping North American bird distributions. Our results attest to the importance of climate in determining species distributions and support the use of climate‐envelope models for estimating potential distributional areas at the appropriate spatial scales.