Trade‐offs across productivity,GHG intensity,and pollutant loads from second‐generation sorghum bioenergy

Greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity is frequently used to assess the mitigation potential of biofuels; however, failure to quantify other environmental impacts may result in unintended consequences, effectively shifting the environmental burden of fuel production rather than reducing it. We modeled production of E₈₅, a gasoline/ethanol blend, from forage sorghum (Sorghum bicolor cv. photoperiod LS) grown, processed, and consumed in California's Imperial Valley in order to evaluate the influence of nitrogen (N) management on well‐to‐wheel (WTW) environmental impacts from cellulosic ethanol. We simulated 25 N management scenarios varying application rate, application method, and N source. Life cycle environmental impacts were characterized using the EPA's criteria for emissions affecting the environment and human health. Our results suggest efficient use of N is an important pathway for minimizing WTW emissions on an energy yield basis. Simulations in which N was injected had the highest nitrogen use efficiency. Even at rates as high as 450 kg N ha^?1, injected N simulations generated a yield response sufficient to outweigh accompanying increases in most N‐induced emissions on an energy yield basis. Thus, within the biofuel life cycle, trade‐offs across productivity, GHG intensity, and pollutant loads may be possible to avoid at regional to global scales. However, trade‐offs were seemingly unavoidable when impacts from E₈₅ were compared to those of conventional gasoline. The GHG intensity of sorghum‐derived E₈₅ ranged from 29 to 44 g CO₂ eq MJ^?1, roughly 1/3 to 1/2 that of gasoline. Conversely, emissions contributing to local air and water pollution tended to be substantially higher in the E₈₅ life cycle. These adverse impacts were strongly influenced by N management and could be partially mitigated by efficient application of N fertilizers. Together, our results emphasize the importance of minimizing on‐farm emissions in maximizing both the environmental benefits and profitability of biofuels.     

A county‐level estimation of renewable surface water and groundwater availability associated with potential large‐scale bioenergy feedstock production scenarios in the United States

This study examines fresh renewable water resources available for bioenergy feedstock production in the United States. The impacts of feedstock irrigation on surface and groundwater resources available to nonbioenergy sectors were quantified using a pair of water availability indexes: streamflow availability index and percolation flow availability index. The two metrics were applied to both historical (2008) and three possible future biomass production scenarios from the 2016 U.S. Billion‐Ton Report at the county level. For both historical and future scenarios, we found that the consumptive irrigation requirements for bioenergy feedstock account for <0.01% of annual streamflow in all but three counties in Nebraska. Results suggest that the irrigation demand of future biomass production could be supplied by annual renewable groundwater flow in about 94% of feedstock‐growing counties that use groundwater for irrigation, representing about 92% of production tonnage. Counties that require irrigation from nonrenewable groundwater resources are mostly located in the Northern Plains and Pacific regions. We also evaluated the sensitivity of crop water footprint estimation to soil moisture carryover by comparing blue water estimates from six different empirical and process‐based methods. Our findings suggest that accounting for preseason soil moisture is critical for representative blue water estimation, so that the irrigation water consumption is not overestimated. This is especially true in the Corn Belt region, where blue water estimates with and without preseason soil moisture would be about 1.9 versus 45.5 billion m³/year under the historical scenario. This difference is smaller in semiarid regions like the High Plains, but the blue water estimate can still triple if soil moisture is not considered. From the perspective of renewable surface water and groundwater resources, scaling feedstock production up in the High Plains and California will require careful planning integrated with water management strategies to improve water resource conservation.     

Biofuels agriculture: landscape‐scale trade‐offs between fuel,economics, carbon,energy, food,and fiber

First‐generation biofuels are an existing, scalable form of renewable energy of the type urgently required to mitigate climate change. In this study, we assessed the potential benefits, costs, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture to inform bioenergy policy. We assessed different climate change and carbon subsidy scenarios in an 11.9 million ha (5.48 million ha arable) region in southern Australia. We modeled the spatial distribution of agricultural production, full life‐cycle net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy, and economic profitability for both food agriculture (wheat, legumes, sheep rotation) and biofuels agriculture (wheat, canola rotation for ethanol/biodiesel production). The costs, benefits, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture varied geographically, with climate change, and with the level of carbon subsidy. Below we describe the results in general and provide (in parentheses) illustrative results under historical mean climate and a carbon subsidy of A$20 t^?1 CO₂^?e. Biofuels agriculture was more profitable over an extensive area (2.85 million ha) of the most productive arable land and produced large quantities of biofuels (1.7 GL yr^?1). Biofuels agriculture substantially increased economic profit (145.8 million $A yr^?1 or 30%), but had only a modest net GHG abatement (?2.57 million t CO₂^?e yr^?1), and a negligible effect on net energy production (?0.11 PJ yr^?1). However, food production was considerably reduced in terms of grain (?3.04 million t yr^?1) and sheep meat (?1.89 million head yr^?1). Wool fiber production was also substantially reduced (?23.19 kt yr^?1). While biofuels agriculture can produce short‐term benefits, it also has costs, and the vulnerability of biofuels to climatic warming and drying renders it a myopic strategy. Nonetheless, in some areas the profitability of biofuels agriculture is robust to variation in climate and level of carbon subsidy and these areas may form part of a long‐term diversified mix of land‐use solutions to climate change if trade‐offs can be managed.     

Trade‐offs for food production,nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential

Large‐scale biomass plantations (BPs) are a common factor in climate mitigation scenarios as they promise double benefits: extracting carbon from the atmosphere and providing a renewable energy source. However, their terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) potentials depend on important factors such as land availability, efficiency of capturing biomass‐derived carbon and the timing of operation. Land availability is restricted by the demands of future food production depending on yield increases and population growth, by requirements for nature conservation and, with respect to climate mitigation, avoiding unfavourable albedo changes. We integrate these factors in one spatially explicit biogeochemical simulation framework to explore the tCDR opportunity space on land available after these constraints are taken into account, starting either in 2020 or 2050, and lasting until 2100. We find that assumed future needs for nature protection and food production strongly limit tCDR potentials. BPs on abandoned crop and pasture areas (~1,300 Mha in scenarios of either 8.0 billion people and yield gap reductions of 25% until 2020 or 9.5 billion people and yield gap reductions of 50% until 2050) could, theoretically, sequester ~100 GtC in land carbon stocks and biomass harvest by 2100. However, this potential would be ~80% lower if only cropland was available or ~50% lower if albedo decreases were considered as a factor restricting land availability. Converting instead natural forest, shrubland or grassland into BPs could result in much larger tCDR potentials ? but at high environmental costs (e.g. biodiversity loss). The most promising avenue for effective tCDR seems to be improvement of efficient carbon utilization pathways, changes in dietary trends or the restoration of marginal lands for the implementation of tCDR.     

Trade‐offs between carbon stocks and biodiversity in European temperate forests

Policies to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss often assume that protecting carbon‐rich forests provides co‐benefits in terms of biodiversity, due to the spatial congruence of carbon stocks and biodiversity at biogeographic scales. However, it remains unclear whether this holds at the scales relevant for management, and particularly large knowledge gaps exist for temperate forests and for taxa other than trees. We built a comprehensive dataset of Central European temperate forest structure and multi‐taxonomic diversity (beetles, birds, bryophytes, fungi, lichens, and plants) across 352 plots. We used Boosted Regression Trees (BRTs) to assess the relationship between above‐ground live carbon stocks and (a) taxon‐specific richness, (b) a unified multidiversity index. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa ANalysis to explore individual species’ responses to changing above‐ground carbon stocks and to detect change‐points in species composition along the carbon‐stock gradient. Our results reveal an overall weak and highly variable relationship between richness and carbon stock at the stand scale, both for individual taxonomic groups and for multidiversity. Similarly, the proportion of win‐win and trade‐off species (i.e., species favored or disadvantaged by increasing carbon stock, respectively) varied substantially across taxa. Win‐win species gradually replaced trade‐off species with increasing carbon, without clear thresholds along the above‐ground carbon gradient, suggesting that community‐level surrogates (e.g., richness) might fail to detect critical changes in biodiversity. Collectively, our analyses highlight that leveraging co‐benefits between carbon and biodiversity in temperate forest may require stand‐scale management that prioritizes either biodiversity or carbon in order to maximize co‐benefits at broader scales. Importantly, this contrasts with tropical forests, where climate and biodiversity objectives can be integrated at the stand scale, thus highlighting the need for context‐specificity when managing for multiple objectives. Accounting for critical change‐points of target taxa can help to deal with this specificity, by defining a safe operating space to manipulate carbon while avoiding biodiversity losses.     

Net primary production in three bioenergy crop systems following land conversion

Aims Identifying the amount of production and the partitioning to above- and belowground biomass is generally the first step toward selecting bioenergy systems. There are very few existing studies on the dynamics of production following land conversion. The objectives of this study were to (i) determine the differences in aboveground net primary production (ANPP), belowground net primary production (BNPP), shoot-to-root ratio (S:R) and leaf area index in three bioenergy crop systems and (ii) evaluate the production of these three systems in two different land use conversions.Methods This investigation included biometric analysis of NPP on three agricultural sites converted from conservation reserve program (CRP) management to bioenergy crop production (corn, switchgrass and prairie mix) and three sites converted from traditional agriculture production to bioenergy crop production.Important findings The site converted from conventional agriculture produced smaller ANPP in corn (19.03±1.90 standard error [SE] Mg ha^-1 year^-1) than the site converted from CRP to corn (24.54±1.43 SE Mg ha^-1 year^-1). The two land conversions were similar in terms of ANPP for switchgrass (4.88±0.43 SE for CRP and 2.04±0.23 SE Mg ha^-1 year^-1 for agriculture) and ANPP for prairie mix (4.70±0.50 SE for CRP and 3.38±0.33 SE Mg ha^-1 year^-1 for agriculture). The BNPP at the end of the growing season in all the bioenergy crop systems was not significantly different (P = 0.75, N = 8).     

流域尺度上河流水质与土地利用的关系

以苏子河流域内54个水质采样点为基点,生成6种尺度的河岸带缓冲区,并借助FRAGSTATS软件计算景观水平和类型水平上的8种景观指数.分别从景观空间格局与景观类型组成两方面,对景观指数与水质进行相关分析.结果表明:区域景观格局在不同缓冲区内对流域水质具有不同的效应.当缓冲区距离≤300 m时,旱地、建筑用地、水田为主要的景观类型组成,其面积比例、斑块数量、斑块密度、最大斑块指数、最大形状指数、景观斑块聚集度指数均较高,农田的连通性较高,对水质的影响较大.在距离河流较远的区域(缓冲区距离＞300 m),林地面积比例较高,林地聚集连通程度较好,对水质改善具有一定作用,但不明显.该流域耕地、建设用地等对水质有着关键的影响作用.     

Trade‐offs between life‐history traits at range‐edge and central locations

The allocation of resources to different life‐history traits should represent the best compromise in fitness investment for organisms in their local environment. When resources are limiting, the investment in a specific trait must carry a cost that is expressed in trade‐offs with other traits. In this study, the relative investment in the fitness‐related traits, growth, reproduction and defence were compared at central and range‐edge locations, using the seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum as a model system. Individual growth rates were similar at both sites, whereas edge populations showed a higher relative investment in reproduction (demonstrated by a higher reproductive allocation and extended reproductive periods) when compared to central populations that invested more in defence. These results show the capability of A. nodosum to differentially allocate resources for different traits under different habitat conditions, suggesting that reproduction and defence have different fitness values under the specific living conditions experienced at edge and central locations. However, ongoing climate change may threaten edge populations by increasing the selective pressure on specific traits, forcing these populations to lower the investment in other traits that are also potentially important for population fitness.     

Hotspots of uncertainty in land‐use and land‐cover change projections: a global‐scale model comparison

Model‐based global projections of future land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global‐scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Seasonal and within‐canopy variation in shoot‐scale resource‐use efficiency trade‐offs in a Norway spruce stand

Previous leaf‐scale studies of carbon assimilation describe short‐term resource‐use efficiency (RUE) trade‐offs where high use efficiency of one resource requires low RUE of another. However, varying resource availabilities may cause long‐term RUE trade‐offs to differ from the short‐term patterns. This may have important implications for understanding canopy‐scale resource use and allocation. We used continuous gas exchange measurements collected at five levels within a Norway spruce, Picea abies (L.) karst., canopy over 3 years to assess seasonal differences in the interactions between shoot‐scale resource availability (light, water and nitrogen), net photosynthesis (A_n) and the use efficiencies of light (LUE), water (WUE) and nitrogen (NUE) for carbon assimilation. The continuous data set was used to develop and evaluate multiple regression models for predicting monthly shoot‐scale A_n. These models showed that shoot‐scale A_n was strongly dependent on light availability and was generally well described with simple one‐ or two‐parameter models. WUE peaked in spring, NUE in summer and LUE in autumn. However, the relative importance of LUE for carbon assimilation increased with canopy depth at all times. Our results suggest that accounting for seasonal and within‐canopy trade‐offs may be important for RUE‐based modelling of canopy carbon uptake.     

Watershed‐scale impacts of bioenergy crops on hydrology and water quality using improved SWAT model

Cellulosic bioenergy feedstock such as perennial grasses and crop residues are expected to play a significant role in meeting US biofuel production targets. We used an improved version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to forecast impacts on watershed hydrology and water quality by implementing an array of plausible land‐use changes associated with commercial bioenergy crop production for two watersheds in the Midwest USA. Watershed‐scale impacts were estimated for 13 bioenergy crop production scenarios, including: production of Miscanthus × giganteus and upland Shawnee switchgrass on highly erodible landscape positions, agricultural marginal land areas and pastures, removal of corn stover and combinations of these options. Water quality, measured as erosion and sediment loading, was forecasted to improve compared to baseline when perennial grasses were used for bioenergy production, but not with stover removal scenarios. Erosion reduction with perennial energy crop production scenarios ranged between 0.2% and 59%. Stream flow at the watershed outlet was reduced between 0 and 8% across these bioenergy crop production scenarios compared to baseline across the study watersheds. Results indicate that bioenergy production scenarios that incorporate perennial grasses reduced the nonpoint source pollutant load at the watershed outlet compared to the baseline conditions (0–20% for nitrate‐nitrogen and 3–56% for mineral phosphorus); however, the reduction rates were specific to site characteristics and management practices.     

Bioenergy production and Skylark (Alauda arvensis) population abundance – a modelling approach for the analysis of land‐use change impacts and conservation options

Bioenergy production is seen as one way of meeting future energy needs. The growing demand for biomass for energy production induces the cultivation of a few fast growing and high‐yielding energy crops on vast areas of arable land. This land‐use change has been found associated with the reduction of habitat suitability for farmland birds and a decline in farmland biodiversity in general. A large number of studies have assessed the ecological effects of energy crop cultivation at the local scale of a single field. This study focuses on regional landscape changes caused by increased energy crop cultivation, which includes reduction of crop‐type richness and spatial concentration of single crop‐types. We present a spatially explicit ecological model to assess the population‐level consequences of these effects on the abundance of the farmland bird species Skylark (Alauda arvensis). We also investigate the impacts of different land‐use scenarios and aim to identify adaptive conservation options. We show that (1) the impacts of increased energy crop cultivation on Skylark population abundance depend strongly on the landscape structure; (2) impacts could be tolerated as long as a certain minimum level of crop‐type heterogeneity is retained at the landscape level and (3) conservation actions are required and effective especially on landscapes where crop‐field size is large.     

An agent‐based modelling approach to evaluate factors influencing bioenergy crop adoption in north‐east Scotland

An agent‐based modelling (ABM) framework was adapted to assess bioenergy crop uptake and integrate social and economic processes with biophysical elements. Survey results indicated that economic rationalisation was intrinsic to farmers’ decision‐making, but was not the only consideration. This study presents an approach, set within an established resource management framework, to incorporate a number of key socio‐economic factors, which we call Mitigation Willingness Factors (MWFs), using survey data collected from farmers and land managers, into the ABM. The MWFs represent farmers’ willingness to compromise revenue in order to reduce GHG emissions, derived from their attitudes to climate change and the ability of different economic mechanisms to stimulate energy crop uptake. Adoption of bioenergy crops of different farmer types and farming enterprises was also assessed. Adoption rates and scenarios that take into account noneconomic factors are presented, and particular farming enterprises that may respond more positively to policy initiatives are identified.     

Lignocellulosic‐based bioenergy and water quality parameters: a review

High rates of crop residue removal as biofuel feedstocks could increase losses of nonpoint source pollutants, negatively affecting water quality. An alternative to residue removal can be growing dedicated bioenergy crops such as warm season grasses (WSGs) and short‐rotation woody crops (SRWCs). Yet, our understanding of the implications of growing dedicated bioenergy crops on water quality is limited. Thus, we (i) synthesized and compared the impacts of crop residue removal, WSGs, and SRWCs on water quality parameters (i.e., sediment and nutrient runoff, and nutrient leaching) and (ii) identified research gaps for growing dedicated energy crops. Literature indicates that residue removal at rates >50% (residue retention up to 4.71 Mg ha^?1) can increase runoff by 5–15 mm, sediment loss by 0.2–7 Mg ha^?1, NO₃–N by 0.58–1 kg ha^?1, and sediment‐associated C by 0.3–57 kg ha^?1 per rainstorm event compared to no residue removal. Crop residue removal may also increase nutrient leaching. Studies on the impacts of growing WSGs as dedicated bioenergy crops at field scale on water quality parameters are few. However, WSGs when used as conservation buffers reduce losses of sediment by 66–97%, nutrients by 21–94%, and contaminants by 9–98%. This suggests that if WSGs were grown as dedicated bioenergy crops at larger scales, they could reduce losses of nonpoint source pollutants. Literature indicates that SRWCs can consistently reduce NO₃–N leaching. More modeled than field data are available, warranting further field research on (i) field data collection from WSGs and SRWCs from marginal lands, (ii) growing monoculture or polyculture of WSGs, and (iii) large‐scale production of energy crops. Overall, dedicated bioenergy crops, particularly WSGs, can reduce losses of nonpoint source pollutants compared to residue removal and be an important strategy to improve water quality if grown at larger scales.     

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO₂ concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.     

Including albedo in time‐dependent LCA of bioenergy

Albedo change during feedstock production can substantially alter the life cycle climate impact of bioenergy. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have compared the effects of albedo and greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on global warming potential (GWP). However, using GWP leads to unequal weighting of climate forcers that act on different timescales. In this study, albedo was included in the time‐dependent LCA, which accounts for the timing of emissions and their impacts. We employed field‐measured albedo and life cycle emissions data along with time‐dependent models of radiative transfer, biogenic carbon fluxes and nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Climate impacts were expressed as global mean surface temperature change over time (?T) and as GWP. The bioenergy system analysed was heat and power production from short‐rotation willow grown on former fallow land in Sweden. We found a net cooling effect in terms of ?T per hectare (?3.8 × 10^–11 K in year 100) and GWP₁₀₀ per MJ fuel (?12.2 g CO₂e), as a result of soil carbon sequestration via high inputs of carbon from willow roots and litter. Albedo was higher under willow than fallow, contributing to the cooling effect and accounting for 34% of GWP₁₀₀, 36% of ?T in year 50 and 6% of ?T in year 100. Albedo dominated the short‐term temperature response (10–20 years) but became, in relative terms, less important over time, owing to accumulation of soil carbon under sustained production and the longer perturbation lifetime of GHGs. The timing of impacts was explicit with ?T, which improves the relevance of LCA results to climate targets. Our method can be used to quantify the first‐order radiative effect of albedo change on the global climate and relate it to the climate impact of GHG emissions in LCA of bioenergy, alternative energy sources or land uses.     

Trade‐offs between growth and reproduction: an analysis of the quantitative genetic evidence

The assumption of a trade‐off between development time and fecundity, resulting from a positive correlation between body size and fecundity and between body size and development time, is a common feature of life history models. The present paper examines the evidence for such a trade‐off as indicated by genetic correlations between traits. The genetic covariances between traits are derived using a model in which maturation occurs when the organism achieves a genetically variable size threshold, and fecundity is an allometric function of body size with one genetically variable parameter (excluding body size itself). This model predicts that the heritabilities of the life history traits (growth rate, development time, fecundity) will not necessarily be less than the heritability of adult size (i.e. morphological traits). It is shown that if growth rate is genetically correlated with adult size then it is not possible, in general, to predict the sign of the genetic correlation between development time and fecundity. For particular cases the signs of the covariances between traits can be predicted. These predictions are tested using data drawn from the literature.     

Trade‐offs between savanna woody plant diversity and carbon storage in the Brazilian Cerrado

Incentivizing carbon storage can be a win‐win pathway to conserving biodiversity and mitigating climate change. In savannas, however, the situation is more complex. Promoting carbon storage through woody encroachment may reduce plant diversity of savanna endemics, even as the diversity of encroaching forest species increases. This trade‐off has important implications for the management of biodiversity and carbon in savanna habitats, but has rarely been evaluated empirically. We quantified the nature of carbon‐diversity relationships in the Brazilian Cerrado by analyzing how woody plant species richness changed with carbon storage in 206 sites across the 2.2 million km² region at two spatial scales. We show that total woody plant species diversity increases with carbon storage, as expected, but that the richness of endemic savanna woody plant species declines with carbon storage both at the local scale, as woody biomass accumulates within plots, and at the landscape scale, as forest replaces savanna. The sharpest trade‐offs between carbon storage and savanna diversity occurred at the early stages of carbon accumulation at the local scale but the final stages of forest encroachment at the landscape scale. Furthermore, the loss of savanna species quickens in the final stages of forest encroachment, and beyond a point, savanna species losses outpace forest species gains with increasing carbon accumulation. Our results suggest that although woody encroachment in savanna ecosystems may provide substantial carbon benefits, it comes at the rapidly accruing cost of woody plant species adapted to the open savanna environment. Moreover, the dependence of carbon‐diversity trade‐offs on the amount of savanna area remaining requires land managers to carefully consider local conditions. Widespread woody encroachment in both Australian and African savannas and grasslands may present similar threats to biodiversity.