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1.

Background

Current reporting guidelines do not call for standardised declaration of follow-up completeness, although study validity depends on the representativeness of measured outcomes. The Follow-Up Index (FUI) describes follow-up completeness at a given study end date as ratio between the investigated and the potential follow-up period. The association between FUI and the accuracy of survival-estimates was investigated.

Methods

FUI and Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated twice for 1207 consecutive patients undergoing aortic repair during an 11-year period: in a scenario A the population’s clinical routine follow-up data (available from a prospective registry) was analysed conventionally. For the control scenario B, an independent survey was completed at the predefined study end. To determine the relation between FUI and the accuracy of study findings, discrepancies between scenarios regarding FUI, follow-up duration and cumulative survival-estimates were evaluated using multivariate analyses.

Results

Scenario A noted 89 deaths (7.4%) during a mean considered follow-up of 30±28months. Scenario B, although analysing the same study period, detected 304 deaths (25.2%, P<0.001) as it scrutinized the complete follow-up period (49±32months). FUI (0.57±0.35 versus 1.00±0, P<0.001) and cumulative survival estimates (78.7% versus 50.7%, P<0.001) differed significantly between scenarios, suggesting that incomplete follow-up information led to underestimation of mortality. Degree of follow-up completeness (i.e. FUI-quartiles and FUI-intervals) correlated directly with accuracy of study findings: underestimation of long-term mortality increased almost linearly by 30% with every 0.1 drop in FUI (adjusted HR 1.30; 95%-CI 1.24;1.36, P<0.001).

Conclusion

Follow-up completeness is a pre-requisite for reliable outcome assessment and should be declared systematically. FUI represents a simple measure suited as reporting standard. Evidence lacking such information must be challenged as potentially flawed by selection bias.  相似文献   

2.

Background

Nigeria is faced with a high burden of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Treatment outcomes among MDR-TB patients registered across the globe have been poor, partly due to high loss-to-follow-up. To address this challenge, MDR-TB patients in Nigeria are hospitalized during the intensive-phase(IP) of treatment (first 6–8 months) and are provided with a package of care including standardized MDR-TB treatment regimen, antiretroviral therapy (ART) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (CPT) for HIV-infected patients, nutritional and psychosocial support. In this study, we report the end-IP treatment outcomes among them.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we reviewed the patient records of all bacteriologically-confirmed MDR-TB patients admitted for treatment between July 2010 and October 2012.

Results

Of 162 patients, 105(65%) were male, median age was 34 years and 28(17%) were HIV-infected; all 28 received ART and CPT. Overall, 138(85%) were alive and culture negative at the end of IP, 24(15%) died and there was no loss-to-follow-up. Mortality was related to low CD4-counts at baseline among HIV-positive patients. The median increase in body mass index among those documented to be underweight was 2.6 kg/m2 (p<0.01) and CD4-counts improved by a median of 52 cells/microL among the HIV-infected patients (p<0.01).

Conclusions

End-IP treatment outcomes were exceptional compared to previously published data from international cohorts, thus confirming the usefulness of a hospitalized model of care. However, less than five percent of all estimated 3600 MDR-TB patients in Nigeria were initiated on treatment during the study period. Given the expected scale-up of MDR-TB care, the hospitalized model is challenging to sustain and the national TB programme is contemplating to move to ambulatory care. Hence, we recommend using both ambulatory and hospitalized approaches, with the latter being reserved for selected high-risk groups.  相似文献   

3.

Background

One of the main strategies to control tuberculosis (TB) is to find and treat people with active disease. Unfortunately, the case detection rates remain low in many countries. Thus, we need interventions to find and treat sufficient number of patients to control TB. We investigated whether involving health extension workers (HEWs: trained community health workers) in TB control improved smear-positive case detection and treatment success rates in southern Ethiopia.

Methodology/Principal Finding

We carried out a community-randomized trial in southern Ethiopia from September 2006 to April 2008. Fifty-one kebeles (with a total population of 296, 811) were randomly allocated to intervention and control groups. We trained HEWs in the intervention kebeles on how to identify suspects, collect sputum, and provide directly observed treatment. The HEWs in the intervention kebeles advised people with productive cough of 2 weeks or more duration to attend the health posts. Two hundred and thirty smear-positive patients were identified from the intervention and 88 patients from the control kebeles. The mean case detection rate was higher in the intervention than in the control kebeles (122.2% vs 69.4%, p<0.001). In addition, more females patients were identified in the intervention kebeles (149.0 vs 91.6, p<0.001). The mean treatment success rate was higher in the intervention than in the control kebeles (89.3% vs 83.1%, p = 0.012) and more for females patients (89.8% vs 81.3%, p = 0.05).

Conclusions/Significance

The involvement of HEWs in sputum collection and treatment improved smear-positive case detection and treatment success rate, possibly because of an improved service access. This could be applied in settings with low health service coverage and a shortage of health workers.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00803322  相似文献   

4.
5.

Background

COPD exacerbations accelerate disease progression.

Aims

To examine if COPD characteristics and systemic inflammatory markers predict the risk for acute COPD exacerbation (AECOPD) frequency and duration.

Methods

403 COPD patients, GOLD stage II-IV, aged 44–76 years were included in the Bergen COPD Cohort Study in 2006/07, and followed for 3 years. Examined baseline predictors were sex, age, body composition, smoking, AECOPD the last year, GOLD stage, Charlson comorbidity score (CCS), hypoxemia (PaO2<8 kPa), cough, use of inhaled steroids, and the inflammatory markers leucocytes, C-reactive protein (CRP), neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNF-R1), and osteoprotegrin (OPG). Negative binomial models with random effects were fitted to estimate the annual incidence rate ratios (IRR). For analysis of AECOPD duration, a generalized estimation equation logistic regression model was fitted, also adjusting for season, time since inclusion and AECOPD severity.

Results

After multivariate adjustment, significant predictors of AECOPD were: female sex [IRR 1.45 (1.14–1.84)], age per 10 year increase [1.23 (1.03–1.47)], >1 AECOPD last year before baseline [1.65 (1.24–2.21)], GOLD III [1.36 (1.07–1.74)], GOLD IV [2.90 (1.98–4.25)], chronic cough [1.64 (1.30–2.06)] and use of inhaled steroids [1.57 (1.21–2.05)]. For AECOPD duration more than three weeks, significant predictors after adjustment were: hypoxemia [0.60 (0.39–0.92)], years since inclusion [1.19 (1.03–1.37)], AECOPD severity; moderate [OR 1.58 (1.14–2.18)] and severe [2.34 (1.58–3.49)], season; winter [1.51 (1.08–2.12)], spring [1.45 (1.02–2.05)] and sTNF-R1 per SD increase [1.16 (1.00–1.35)].

Conclusion

Several COPD characteristics were independent predictors of both AECOPD frequency and duration.  相似文献   

6.

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease of public health concern, with a varying distribution across settings depending on socio-economic status, HIV burden, availability and performance of the health system. Ethiopia is a country with a high burden of TB, with regional variations in TB case notification rates (CNRs). However, TB program reports are often compiled and reported at higher administrative units that do not show the burden at lower units, so there is limited information about the spatial distribution of the disease. We therefore aim to assess the spatial distribution and presence of the spatio-temporal clustering of the disease in different geographic settings over 10 years in the Sidama Zone in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective space–time and spatial analysis were carried out at the kebele level (the lowest administrative unit within a district) to identify spatial and space-time clusters of smear-positive pulmonary TB (PTB). Scan statistics, Global Moran’s I, and Getis and Ordi (Gi*) statistics were all used to help analyze the spatial distribution and clusters of the disease across settings.

Results

A total of 22,545 smear-positive PTB cases notified over 10 years were used for spatial analysis. In a purely spatial analysis, we identified the most likely cluster of smear-positive PTB in 192 kebeles in eight districts (RR= 2, p<0.001), with 12,155 observed and 8,668 expected cases. The Gi* statistic also identified the clusters in the same areas, and the spatial clusters showed stability in most areas in each year during the study period. The space-time analysis also detected the most likely cluster in 193 kebeles in the same eight districts (RR= 1.92, p<0.001), with 7,584 observed and 4,738 expected cases in 2003-2012.

Conclusion

The study found variations in CNRs and significant spatio-temporal clusters of smear-positive PTB in the Sidama Zone. The findings can be used to guide TB control programs to devise effective TB control strategies for the geographic areas characterized by the highest CNRs. Further studies are required to understand the factors associated with clustering based on individual level locations and investigation of cases.  相似文献   

7.

Background

Various studies have reported culture conversion at two months as a predictor of successful treatment outcome in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB).

Objectives

The present study was conducted with the aim to evaluate the rate and predictors of culture conversion at two months in MDR-TB patients.

Methods

All confirmed pulmonary MDR-TB patients enrolled for treatment at Lady Reading Hospital Peshawar, Pakistan from 1 January to 31 December 2012 and met the inclusion criteria were reviewed retrospectively. Rate and predictors of culture conversion at two months were evaluated.

Results

Eighty seven (53.4%) out of 163 patients achieved culture conversion at two months. In a multivariate analysis lung cavitation at baseline chest X-ray (P = 0.006, OR = 0.349), resistance to ofloxacin (P = 0.041, OR = 0.193) and streptomycin (P = 0.017, OR = 0.295) had statistically significant (P<0.05) negative association with culture conversion at two months.

Conclusion

A reasonable proportion of patients achieved culture conversion at two months. Factors negatively associated with culture conversion at two months can be easily identified either before diagnosis or early in the course of MDR-TB treatment. This may help in better care of individual patients by identifying them early and treating them vigorously.  相似文献   

8.
BackgroundEthiopia is one of the high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries. An analysis of trends and differentials in case notifications and treatment outcomes of TB may help improve our understanding of the performance of TB control services.MethodsA retrospective trend analysis of TB cases was conducted in the Sidama Zone in southern Ethiopia. We registered all TB cases diagnosed and treated during 2003–2012 from all health facilities in the Sidama Zone, and analysed trends of TB case notification rates and treatment outcomes.ResultsThe smear positive (PTB+) case notification rate (CNR) increased from 55 (95% CI 52.5–58.4) to 111 (95% CI 107.4–114.4) per 105 people. The CNRs of PTB+ in people older than 45 years increased by fourfold, while the mortality of cases during treatment declined from 11% to 3% for smear negative (PTB-) (X2trend, P<0.001) and from 5% to 2% for PTB+ (X2trend, P<0.001). The treatment success was higher in rural areas (AOR 1.11; CI 95%: 1.03–1.2), less for PTB- (AOR 0.86; CI 95%: 0.80–0.92) and higher for extra-pulmonary TB (AOR 1.10; CI 95%: 1.02–1.19) compared to PTB+. A higher lost-to-follow up was observed in men (AOR 1.15; CI 95%: 1.06–1.24) and among PTB- cases (AOR 1.14; CI 95%: 1.03–1.25). More deaths occurred in PTB-cases (AOR 1.65; 95% CI: 1.44–1.90) and among cases older than 65 years (AOR 3.86; CI 95%: 2.94–5.10). Lastly, retreatment cases had a higher mortality than new cases (6% vs 3%).ConclusionOver the past decade TB CNRs and treatment outcomes improved, whereas the disparities of disease burden by gender and place of residence reduced and mortality declined. Strategies should be devised to address higher risk groups for poor treatment outcomes.  相似文献   

9.
10.

Background

The potential population-level impact of private-sector initiatives for tuberculosis (TB) case finding in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. In 2011, the Indus Hospital TB Control Program in Karachi, Pakistan, undertook an aggressive case-finding campaign that doubled notification rates, providing an opportunity to investigate potential population-level effects.

Methods

We constructed an age-structured compartmental model of TB in the intervention area. We fit the model using field and literature data, assuming that TB incidence equaled the estimated nationwide incidence in Pakistan (primary analysis), or 1.5 times greater (high-incidence scenario). We modeled the intervention as an increase in the rate of formal-sector TB diagnosis and evaluated the potential impact of sustaining this rate for five years.

Results

In the primary analysis, the five-year intervention averted 24% (95% uncertainty range, UR: 18-30%) of five-year cumulative TB cases and 52% (95% UR: 45-57%) of cumulative TB deaths. Corresponding reductions in the high-incidence scenario were 12% (95% UR: 8-17%) and 27% (95% UR: 21-34%), although the absolute number of lives saved was higher. At the end of five years, TB notification rates in the primary analysis were below their 2010 baseline, incidence had dropped by 45%, and annual mortality had fallen by 72%. About half of the cumulative impact on incidence and mortality could be achieved with a one-year intervention.

Conclusions

Sustained, multifaceted, and innovative approaches to TB case-finding in Asian megacities can have substantial community-wide epidemiological impact.  相似文献   

11.
12.

Background

Proportional mortality ratio data indicate that healthcare workers (HCWs) have an elevated tuberculosis (TB) mortality. Whether this is caused by an increased TB incidence, a worse TB treatment outcome, or a combination of effects, remains unclear. To elucidate the hazard components of occupational TB, we assessed TB incidence and TB treatment outcome among HCWs in Taiwan.

Methods

We compared the incidence of active TB among HCWs at a major medical center in Taiwan with that of Taiwan general population in 2004–2012. We also compared the TB treatment outcome of HCWs with that of age/sex-matched non-HCW patients treated at the same hospital, as well as that of nationally registered TB patients.

Results

The standardized TB incidence ratio of the HCWs was 1.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2–2.9), compared with the general population. HCWs with pulmonary TB (n = 30) were less likely to have underlying diseases, delay in diagnosis, delay in treatment, or side effects of treatment, compared with age/sex-matched non-HCW TB patients (n = 120) (all Ps<0.05). The TB treatment outcome of HCWs was significantly better than that of non-HCW patients (TB-related mortality: 0.0% vs. 5.8%, P = 0.008, Mantel-Haenszel test). The standardized TB-related mortality rate was 1.08% [95% CI: 0.96% - 1.20%] for all of the nationally registered TB patients in Taiwan.

Conclusions

HCWs are at increased risk of active TB, compared with general population. To mitigate this occupational hazard, more efforts need to be directed towards the prevention of nosocomial TB transmission. Healthy worker effect, more rapid diagnosis, and less delay in treatment contribute to a lower TB-related mortality in HCWs.  相似文献   

13.

Background

There is evidence that chronic inflammation is associated with the progression/development of chronic renal failure; however, relations in subjects with preserved renal function remain insufficiently understood.

Objective

To examine the association of inflammation with the development of renal failure in a cohort of the elderly general population.

Methods

After excluding subjects with reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and missing data, the cohort incorporated 785 men and 659 women (aged 45–83 years). Follow-up was performed four years after baseline. Covariate adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used to assess the association of plasma/serum concentrations of soluble tumour necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNF-R1), C-reactive protein (CRP), and interleukin 6 (IL-6) with change in eGFR/creatinine. The areas under the curve (AUCs) from receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) were estimated.

Results

In adjusted models sTNF-R1 was distinctively associated with a decline in eGFR in men (0.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 per 100 pg/mL sTNF-R1; 95% CI: 0.4–0.8), but not in women. A similar association could not be found for CRP or IL-6. Estimates of sTNF-R1 in the cross-sectional analyses were similar between sexes, while CRP and IL-6 were not relevantly associated with eGFR/creatinine.

Conclusion

In the elderly male general population with preserved renal function sTNF-R1 predicts the development of renal failure.  相似文献   

14.

Background

Depression is a frequent mood disorder that affects around a third of stroke patients and has been associated with poorer outcomes. Our aim was to determine whether there was a relationship between inflammatory markers (leptin) and post-stroke depression (PSD).

Methods

One hundred and ninety-one ischemic stroke patients admitted to the hospital within the first 24 hours after stroke onset were consecutively recruited and followed up for 3 months. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to measure serum levels of leptin at admission. Based on the symptoms, diagnoses of depression were made in accordance with DSM-IV criteria for post-stroke depression at 3 month.

Results

Forty-four patients (23.0%) were diagnosed as having major depression at 3 month. Patients with depression showed higher serum leptin levels at 3 month after stroke (32.2 [IQR, 20.8–57.7] v. 9.9 [IQR, 4.6–13.1]ng/ml, respectively; P = 0.000). Serum levels of leptin ≥20 ng/ml were independently associated with PSD [odds ratio (OR) 20.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.11–51.26, P =  0.000], after adjusting for possible confounders.

Conclusions

Serum leptin levels elevated at admission were found to be associated with PSD and may provide a new proposal for the treatment of PSD.  相似文献   

15.
ObjectiveTo identify the incidence of and predictors for tuberculosis in children living with HIV in Northern Ethiopia.DesignObservational, retrospective follow-up study.MethodsA total of 645 HIV-infected children were observed between September 2009 and September 2014. Cox regression analysis was used to identify predictors for developing TB.ResultsThe incidence rate of tuberculosis was 4.2 per 100 child-years. Incidence of tuberculosis was higher for subjects who were not on cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, were not on isoniazid preventive therapy, had delayed motor development, had a CD4 cell count below the threshold, had hemoglobin level less than 10 mg/dl and were assessed as World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage III or IV.ConclusionIncidence of TB in children living with HIV was high. This study reaffirmed that isoniazid preventive therapy is one of the best strategy to reduce incidence of TB in children living with HIV. All children living with HIV should be screened for TB but for children with delayed motor development, advanced WHO clinical stage, anemia or immune suppression, intensified screening is highly recommended.  相似文献   

16.

Setting

Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the major health problems in prisons.

Objective

This study was done to assess the prevalence and determinants of active tuberculosis in Ethiopian prisons.

Design

A cross-sectional study was conducted from January 2013 to December 2013 in 13 zonal prisons. All incarcerated inmates underwent TB symptom screening according to WHO criteria. From identified TB-suspects two sputum samples were analyzed using smear microscopy and solid culture. A standardized questionnaire assessing TB risk factors was completed for each TB suspect.

Results

765 (4.9%) TB suspects were identified among 15,495 inmates. 51 suspects were already on anti-TB treatment (6.67%) and 20 (2.8%) new culture-confirmed TB cases were identified in the study, resulting in an overall TB prevalence of 458.1/100,000 (95%CI: 350-560/100,000). Risk factors for active TB were alcohol consumption, contact with a TB case before incarceration and no window in prison cell. HIV prevalence was not different between TB suspects and active TB cases. Further, the TB burden in prisons increased with advancing distance from the capital Addis Ababa.

Conclusions

The overall TB prevalence in Ethiopian prisons was high and extremely variable among different prisons. TB risk factors related to conditions of prison facilities and the impact of implemented TB control measures need to be further studied in order to improve TB control among inmates.  相似文献   

17.

Background

Community-based rehabilitation (CBR) is a multi-sectoral strategy to improve the functioning and quality of life of people with disabilities. The RISE (Rehabilitation Intervention for people with Schizophrenia in Ethiopia) trial will evaluate the effectiveness of CBR for people with schizophrenia in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, the components of CBR that are both feasible and likely to prove effective in low and middle-income countries such as Ethiopia are unclear.

Methods

In this study intervention development work was undertaken to design a CBR intervention that is acceptable and feasible in the local context. The development work consisted of five phases. 1: Identify potential components of CBR for schizophrenia, 2: Situational analysis, 3: Determine feasibility of CBR (Theory of Change workshops with experts and local stakeholders), 4: Determine acceptability of CBR (16 in-depth interviews and five focus group discussions with people with schizophrenia, caregivers, health workers and community leaders) and 5: Synthesise results to finalise intervention. A Theory of Change map was constructed showing the causal pathway for how we expect CBR to achieve its impact.

Results

People with schizophrenia in rural Ethiopia experience family conflict, difficulty participating in work and community life, and stigma. Stakeholders perceived CBR to be acceptable and useful to address these problems. The focus of CBR will be on the individual developing the skills and confidence to perform their previous or desired roles and activities. To ensure feasibility, non-health professionals will be trained to deliver CBR and provide supervision, rather than mental health specialists. Novel components of CBR for schizophrenia included family intervention and dealing with distressing symptoms. Microfinance was excluded due to concerns about stress and exploitation. Community mobilisation was viewed as essential to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of CBR.

Conclusion

Extensive formative research using a variety of methods has enabled the design of a culturally appropriate CBR intervention for people with schizophrenia that is acceptable and feasible.  相似文献   

18.

Background

The association between change in weight or body mass index, and mortality is widely reported, however, both measures fail to account for fat distribution. Change in waist circumference, a measure of central adiposity, in relation to mortality has not been studied extensively.

Methods

We investigated the association between mortality and changes in directly measured waist circumference, hips circumference and weight from baseline (1990–1994) to wave 2 (2003–2007) in a prospective cohort study of people aged 40–69 years at baseline. Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for confounding variables, was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for change in body size in relation to mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease and cancer.

Results

There were 1465 deaths (109 cancer, 242 cardiovascular disease) identified during an average 7.7 years of follow-up from 21 298 participants. Compared to minimal increase in body size, loss of waist circumference (HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.09–1.47), weight (1.80; 1.54–2.11), or hips circumference (1.35; 1.15–1.57) were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality, particularly for older adults. Weight loss was associated with cardiovascular disease mortality (2.40; 1.57–3.65) but change in body size was not associated with obesity-related cancer mortality.

Conclusion

This study confirms the association between weight loss and increased mortality from all-causes for older adults. Based on evidence from observational cohort studies, weight stability may be the recommended option for most adults, especially older adults.  相似文献   

19.

Background

The effects of prenatal Zinc Deficiency (ZD) and Vitamin A Deficiency (VAD) on birthweight are controversial and their interaction has not been investigated.

Objective

To assess the independent and interaction effects of prenatal zinc and vitamin A deficiencies on birthweight in rural Sidama, Southern Ethiopia.

Methodology

A community-based prospective cohort study design was employed. Six hundred fifty pregnant women in their second or third trimester were randomly selected and their serum zinc and retinol concentrations were determined. About 575 subjects were successfully followed until delivery and birthweight was measured within 72 hours after delivery. The association between the exposures and birthweight was examined using log-binomial and liner regression analyses. Potential interaction between ZD and VAD was examined using Synergy Index (SI).

Results

The mean birthweight (± standard deviation) was 2896 g (±423). About 16.5% (95% CI: 13.5–19.6%) of the babies had Low Birthweight (LBW). Prenatal ZD and VAD were not significantly associated to LBW with Adjusted Relative Risk (ARR) of 1.25 (95 CI: 0.86–1.82) and 1.27 (95% CI: 0.86–1.87), respectively. Stratified analysis on the basis of gestational trimester showed that the occurrence of the deficiencies neither in the second nor third trimester were associated to LBW. The deficiencies did not show synergetic interaction in causing LBW [SI = 1.04 (95% CI: 0.17–6.28)]. Important risk factors of LBW were maternal illiteracy [RR = 1.80 (95% CI: 1.11–2.93)], female sex of the newborn [RR = 1.79 (95% CI: 1.19–2.67)], primiparity [RR = 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02–1.35)], short maternal stature [RR = 1.63 (95% CI: 1.06–2.51)] and maternal thinness [RR = 1.52 (95% CI: 1.03–2.25)]. In the linear regression model, elevated CRP was also negatively associated to birthweight.

Conclusion

LBW is of public health significance in the locality. The study did not witness any independent or interaction effect of prenatal ZD and VAD on birthweight.  相似文献   

20.

Background

Globally, there has been growing evidence that suggests the effectiveness of active case finding (ACF) for tuberculosis (TB) in high-risk populations. However, the evidence is still insufficient as to whether ACF increases case notification beyond what is reported in the routine passive case finding (PCF). In Cambodia, National TB Control Programme has conducted nationwide ACF with Xpert MTB/RIF that retrospectively targeted household and neighbourhood contacts alongside routine PCF. This study aims to investigate the impact of ACF on case notifications during and after the intervention period.

Methods

Using a quasi-experimental cluster randomized design with intervention and control arms, we compared TB case notification during the one-year intervention period with historical baseline cases and trend-adjusted expected cases, and estimated additional cases notified during the intervention period (separately for Year 1 and Year 2 implementation). The proportion of change in case notification was compared between intervention and control districts for Year 1. The quarterly case notification data from all intervention districts were consolidated, aligning different implementation quarters, and separately analysed to explore the additionality. The effect of the intervention on the subsequent case notification during the post-intervention period was also assessed.

Results

In Year 1, as compared to expected cases, 1467 cases of all forms (18.5%) and 330 bacteriologically-confirmed cases (9.6%) were additionally notified in intervention districts, whereas case notification in control districts decreased by 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. In Year 2, 2737 cases of all forms (44.3%) and 793 bacteriologically-confirmed cases (38%) were additionally notified as compared to expected cases. The proportions of increase in case notifications from baseline cases and expected cases to intervention period cases were consistently higher in intervention group than in control group. The consolidated quarterly data showed sharp rises in all forms and bacteriologically-confirmed cases notified during the intervention quarter, with 64.6% and 68.4% increases (compared to baseline cases), and 46% and 52.9% increases (compared to expected cases), respectively. A cumulative reduction of case notification for five quarters after ACF reached more than -200% of additional cases.

Conclusions

The Cambodia’s ACF with Xpert MTB/RIF that retrospectively targeted household and neighbourhood contacts resulted in the substantial increase in case notification during the intervention period and reduced subsequent case notification during the post-intervention period. The applicability of retrospective contact investigation in other high-burden settings should be explored.  相似文献   

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