Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice‐willow crops in Britain

In this paper, we focus on the impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) of two dedicated energy crops: perennial grass Miscanthus x Giganteus (Miscanthus) and short rotation coppice (SRC)‐willow. The amount of SOC sequestered in the soil is a function of site‐specific factors including soil texture, management practices, initial SOC levels and climate; for these reasons, both losses and gains in SOC were observed in previous Miscanthus and SRC‐willow studies. The ECOSSE model was developed to simulate soil C dynamics and greenhouse gas emissions in mineral and organic soils. The performance of ECOSSE has already been tested at site level to simulate the impacts of land‐use change to short rotation forestry (SRF) on SOC. However, it has not been extensively evaluated under other bioenergy plantations, such as Miscanthus and SRC‐willow. Twenty‐nine locations in the United Kingdom, comprising 19 paired transitions to SRC‐willow and 20 paired transitions to Miscanthus, were selected to evaluate the performance of ECOSSE in predicting SOC and SOC change from conventional systems (arable and grassland) to these selected bioenergy crops. The results of the present work revealed a strong correlation between modelled and measured SOC and SOC change after transition to Miscanthus and SRC‐willow plantations, at two soil depths (0–30 and 0–100 cm), as well as the absence of significant bias in the model. Moreover, model error was within (i.e. not significantly larger than) the measurement error. The high degrees of association and coincidence with measured SOC under Miscanthus and SRC‐willow plantations in the United Kingdom, provide confidence in using this process‐based model for quantitatively predicting the impacts of future land use on SOC, at site level as well as at national level.     

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil carbon under short rotation forestry energy crops in Britain

Understanding and predicting the effects of land‐use change to short rotation forestry (SRF) on soil carbon (C) is an important requirement for fully assessing the C mitigation potential of SRF as a bioenergy crop. There is little current knowledge of SRF in the UK and in particular a lack of consistent measured data sets on the direct impacts of land use change on soil C stocks. The ECOSSE model was developed to simulate soil C dynamics and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in mineral and organic soils. The ECOSSE model has already been applied spatially to simulate land‐use change impacts on soil C and GHG emissions. However, it has not been extensively evaluated under SRF. Eleven sites comprising 29 transitions in Britain, representing land‐use change from nonwoodland land uses to SRF, were selected to evaluate the performance of ECOSSE in predicting soil C and soil C change in SRF plantations. The modelled C under SRF showed a strong correlation with the soil C measurements at both 0–30 cm (R = 0.93) and 0–100 cm soil depth (R = 0.82). As for the SRF plots, the soil C at the reference sites have been accurately simulated by the model. The extremely high correlation for the reference fields (R ≥ 0.99) shows a good performance of the model spin‐up. The statistical analysis of the model performance to simulate soil C and soil C changes after land‐use change to SRF highlighted the absence of significant error between modelled and measured values as well as the absence of significant bias in the model. Overall, this evaluation reinforces previous studies on the ability of ECOSSE to simulate soil C and emphasize its accuracy to simulate soil C under SRF plantations.     

Real‐time monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions with tall chambers reveals diurnal N2O variation and increased emissions of CO2 and N2O from Miscanthus following compost addition

Miscanthus x giganteus's efficacy as an energy crop relies on maintaining low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. As demand for Miscanthus is expected to rise to meet bioenergy targets, fertilizers and composts may be employed to increase yields, but will also increase GHG emissions. Manipulation experiments are vital to investigate the consequences of any fertilizer additions, but there is currently no way to measure whole‐plant GHG fluxes from crops taller than 2.5 m, such as Miscanthus, at the experimental plot scale. We employed a unique combination of eddy covariance (EC), soil chambers and an entirely new automated chamber system, SkyBeam, to measure high frequency (ca. hourly) fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from a Miscanthus crop amended with green compost. Untreated controls were also monitored in a fully replicated experimental design. Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ was partitioned into soil respiration (R_s), gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, and the crop was harvested to determine the effect of compost on crop productivity. Compost increased NEE emissions by 100% (p < .05), which was the result of a 20% increase of R_s (p < .06) and a 32% reduction in GPP (p < .05) and biomass of 37% (p < .06). Methane fluxes were small and unaffected by compost addition. N₂O emissions increased 34% under compost during an emission event; otherwise, fluxes were low and often negative, even under dry conditions. Diurnal variation in N₂O fluxes, with uptake during the day and emission at night was observed. These fluxes displayed a negative relationship with soil temperature and a hitherto undescribed diurnal temperature hysteresis. We conclude that compost addition negatively affected the productivity and environmental effects of Miscanthus cultivation during the first year following application.     

High‐resolution spatial modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change to energy crops in the United Kingdom

We implemented a spatial application of a previously evaluated model of soil GHG emissions, ECOSSE, in the United Kingdom to examine the impacts to 2050 of land‐use transitions from existing land use, rotational cropland, permanent grassland or woodland, to six bioenergy crops; three ‘first‐generation’ energy crops: oilseed rape, wheat and sugar beet, and three ‘second‐generation’ energy crops: Miscanthus, short rotation coppice willow (SRC) and short rotation forestry poplar (SRF). Conversion of rotational crops to Miscanthus, SRC and SRF and conversion of permanent grass to SRF show beneficial changes in soil GHG balance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass to Miscanthus, permanent grass to SRF and forest to SRF shows detrimental changes in soil GHG balance over a significant area. Conversion of permanent grass to wheat, oilseed rape, sugar beet and SRC and all conversions from forest show large detrimental changes in soil GHG balance over most of the United Kingdom, largely due to moving from uncultivated soil to regular cultivation. Differences in net GHG emissions between climate scenarios to 2050 were not significant. Overall, SRF offers the greatest beneficial impact on soil GHG balance. These results provide one criterion for selection of bioenergy crops and do not consider GHG emission increases/decreases resulting from displaced food production, bio‐physical factors (e.g. the energy density of the crop) and socio‐economic factors (e.g. expenditure on harvesting equipment). Given that the soil GHG balance is dominated by change in soil organic carbon (SOC) with the difference among Miscanthus, SRC and SRF largely determined by yield, a target for management of perennial energy crops is to achieve the best possible yield using the most appropriate energy crop and cultivar for the local situation.     

Measured and modelled effect of land‐use change from temperate grassland to Miscanthus on soil carbon stocks after 12 years

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important carbon pool susceptible to land‐use change (LUC). There are concerns that converting grasslands into the C₄ bioenergy crop Miscanthus (to meet demands for renewable energy) could negatively impact SOC, resulting in reductions of greenhouse gas mitigation benefits gained from using Miscanthus as a fuel. This work addresses these concerns by sampling soils (0–30 cm) from a site 12 years (T₁₂) after conversion from marginal agricultural grassland into Miscanthus x giganteus and four other novel Miscanthus hybrids. Soil samples were analysed for changes in below‐ground biomass, SOC and Miscanthus contribution to SOC (using a ¹³C natural abundance approach). Findings are compared to ECOSSE soil carbon model results (run for a LUC from grassland to Miscanthus scenario and continued grassland counterfactual), and wider implications are considered in the context of life cycle assessments based on the heating value of the dry matter (DM) feedstock. The mean T₁₂ SOC stock at the site was 8 (±1 standard error) Mg C/ha lower than baseline time zero stocks (T₀), with assessment of the five individual hybrids showing that while all had lower SOC stock than at T₀ the difference was only significant for a single hybrid. Over the longer term, new Miscanthus C₄ carbon replaces pre‐existing C₃ carbon, though not at a high enough rate to completely offset losses by the end of year 12. At the end of simulated crop lifetime (15 years), the difference in SOC stocks between the two scenarios was 4 Mg C/ha (5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ). Including modelled LUC‐induced SOC loss, along with carbon costs relating to soil nitrous oxide emissions, doubled the greenhouse gas intensity of Miscanthus to give a total global warming potential of 10 g CO₂‐eq/MJ (180 kg CO₂‐eq/Mg DM).     

Soil N2O emissions with different reduced tillage methods during the establishment of Miscanthus in temperate grassland

An increase in renewable energy and the planting of perennial bioenergy crops is expected in order to meet global greenhouse gas (GHG) targets. Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent greenhouse gas, and this paper addresses a knowledge gap concerning soil N₂O emissions over the possible “hot spot” of land use conversion from established pasture to the biofuel crop Miscanthus. The work aims to quantify the impacts of this land use change on N₂O fluxes using three different cultivation methods. Three replicates of four treatments were established: Miscanthus x giganteus (Mxg) planted without tillage; Mxg planted with light tillage; a novel seed‐based Miscanthus hybrid planted with light tillage under bio‐degradable mulch film; and a control of uncultivated established grass pasture with sheep grazing. Soil N₂O fluxes were recorded every 2 weeks using static chambers starting from preconversion in April 2016 and continuing until the end of October 2017. Monthly soil samples were also taken and analysed for nitrate and ammonium. There was no significant difference in N₂O emissions between the different cultivation methods. However, in comparison with the uncultivated pasture, N₂O emissions from the cultivated Miscanthus plots were 550%–819% higher in the first year (April to December 2016) and 469%–485% higher in the second year (January to October 2017). When added to an estimated carbon cost for production over a 10 year crop lifetime (including crop management, harvest, and transportation), the measured N₂O conversion cost of 4.13 Mg CO₂‐eq./ha represents a 44% increase in emission compared to the base case. This paper clearly shows the need to incorporate N₂O fluxes during Miscanthus establishment into assessments of GHG balances and life cycle analysis and provides vital knowledge needed for this process. This work therefore also helps to support policy decisions regarding the costs and benefits of land use change to Miscanthus.     

Greenhouse gas budget of a poplar bioenergy plantation in Belgium: CO2 uptake outweighs CH4 and N2O emissions

Biomass from short‐rotation coppice (SRC) of woody perennials is being increasingly used as a bioenergy source to replace fossil fuels, but accurate assessments of the long‐term greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of SRC are lacking. To evaluate its mitigation potential, we monitored the GHG balance of a poplar (Populus) SRC in Flanders, Belgium, over 7 years comprising three rotations (i.e., two 2 year rotations and one 3 year rotation). In the beginning—that is, during the establishment year and during each year immediately following coppicing—the SRC plantation was a net source of GHGs. Later on—that is, during each second or third year after coppicing—the site shifted to a net sink. From the sixth year onward, there was a net cumulative GHG uptake reaching ?35.8 Mg CO₂ eq/ha during the seventh year. Over the three rotations, the total CO₂ uptake was ?51.2 Mg CO₂/ha, while the emissions of CH₄ and N₂O amounted to 8.9 and 6.5 Mg CO₂ eq/ha, respectively. As the site was non‐fertilized, non‐irrigated, and only occasionally flooded, CO₂ fluxes dominated the GHG budget. Soil disturbance after land conversion and after coppicing were the main drivers for CO₂ losses. One single N₂O pulse shortly after SRC establishment contributed significantly to the N₂O release. The results prove the potential of SRC biomass plantations to reduce GHG emissions and demonstrate that, for the poplar plantation under study, the high CO₂ uptake outweighs the emissions of non‐CO₂ greenhouse gases.     

Influence of spatially dependent,modeled soil carbon emission factors on life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol

Converting land to biofuel feedstock production incurs changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) that can influence biofuel life‐cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates of these land use change (LUC) and life‐cycle GHG emissions affect biofuels' attractiveness and eligibility under a number of renewable fuel policies in the USA and abroad. Modeling was used to refine the spatial resolution and depth extent of domestic estimates of SOC change for land (cropland, cropland pasture, grassland, and forest) conversion scenarios to biofuel crops (corn, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow) at the county level in the USA. Results show that in most regions, conversions from cropland and cropland pasture to biofuel crops led to neutral or small levels of SOC sequestration, while conversion of grassland and forest generally caused net SOC loss. SOC change results were incorporated into the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to assess their influence on life‐cycle GHG emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol. Total LUC GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1) were 2.1–9.3 for corn‐, ?0.7 for corn stover‐, ?3.4 to 12.9 for switchgrass‐, and ?20.1 to ?6.2 for Miscanthus ethanol; these varied with SOC modeling assumptions applied. Extending the soil depth from 30 to 100 cm affected spatially explicit SOC change and overall LUC GHG emissions; however, the influence on LUC GHG emission estimates was less significant in corn and corn stover than cellulosic feedstocks. Total life‐cycle GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1, 100 cm) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18–26 for switchgrass ethanol, and ?7 to ?0.6 for Miscanthus ethanol. The LUC GHG emissions associated with poplar‐ and willow‐derived ethanol may be higher than that for switchgrass ethanol due to lower biomass yield.     

Potential impacts on ecosystem services of land use transitions to second‐generation bioenergy crops in GB

We present the first assessment of the impact of land use change (LUC) to second‐generation (2G) bioenergy crops on ecosystem services (ES) resolved spatially for Great Britain (GB). A systematic approach was used to assess available evidence on the impacts of LUC from arable, semi‐improved grassland or woodland/forest, to 2G bioenergy crops, for which a quantitative ‘threat matrix’ was developed. The threat matrix was used to estimate potential impacts of transitions to either Miscanthus, short‐rotation coppice (SRC, willow and poplar) or short‐rotation forestry (SRF). The ES effects were found to be largely dependent on previous land uses rather than the choice of 2G crop when assessing the technical potential of available biomass with a transition from arable crops resulting in the most positive effect on ES. Combining these data with constraint masks and available land for SRC and Miscanthus (SRF omitted from this stage due to lack of data), south‐west and north‐west England were identified as areas where Miscanthus and SRC could be grown, respectively, with favourable combinations of economic viability, carbon sequestration, high yield and positive ES benefits. This study also suggests that not all prospective planting of Miscanthus and SRC can be allocated to agricultural land class (ALC) ALC 3 and ALC 4 and suitable areas of ALC 5 are only minimally available. Beneficial impacts were found on 146 583 and 71 890 ha when planting Miscanthus or SRC, respectively, under baseline planting conditions rising to 293 247 and 91 318 ha, respectively, under 2020 planting scenarios. The results provide an insight into the interplay between land availability, original land uses, bioenergy crop type and yield in determining overall positive or negative impacts of bioenergy cropping on ecosystems services and go some way towards developing a framework for quantifying wider ES impacts of this important LUC.     

Contribution of nitrogen fixation to first year Miscanthus × giganteus

Many characteristics make Miscanthus × giganteus an appealing bioenergy feedstock in temperate North America, but the degree to which this plant species interacts with nitrogen‐fixing bacteria remains understudied. Demonstration of associative nitrogen fixation in Miscanthus would support management with minimal fertilizer inputs that is demanded of long‐term biofuel sustainability. As a first step, we investigate the role of biological nitrogen fixation in nutrition of immature Miscanthus and temporal dynamics of plant‐associated nitrogen fixers. The contribution of biological nitrogen fixation to plant nitrogen acquisition in first year Miscanthus × giganteus was estimated using a yield‐dependent ¹⁵N isotope dilution model. Temporal changes in plant‐associated diazotroph relative abundance and community composition were analyzed with quantitative PCR and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism of the nifH gene in rhizome and rhizosphere DNA extracts. We estimate 16% of new plant nitrogen was derived by nitrogen fixation during the growing season, despite non‐limiting soil nitrogen. Diazotroph communities from rhizome and rhizosphere changed with plant development and endophytic nitrogen fixers had significantly higher relative abundance and altered community composition at sampling dates in July and August. This study provides evidence for a small, but measurable, benefit of associative nitrogen fixation to first year Miscanthus × giganteus that underscores the potential and need for selection of breeding lines that maximize this trait.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in bioenergy ecosystems: 1. Model development,validation and sensitivity analysis

Biofuel made from conventional (e.g., maize (Zea mays L.)) and cellulosic crops (e.g., switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) and Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus)) provides alternative energy to fossil fuels and has been considered to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. To estimate the large‐scale carbon and nitrogen dynamics of these biofuel ecosystems, process‐based models are needed. Here, we developed an agroecosystem model (AgTEM) based on the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model for these ecosystems. The model was incorporated with biogeochemical and ecophysiological processes including crop phenology, biomass allocation, nitrification, and denitrification, as well as agronomic management of irrigation and fertilization. It was used to estimate crop yield, biomass, net carbon exchange, and nitrous oxide emissions at an ecosystem level. The model was first parameterized for maize, switchgrass, and Miscanthus ecosystems and then validated with field observation data. We found that AgTEM well reproduces the annual net primary production and nitrous oxide fluxes of most sites, with over 85% of total variation explained by the model. Local sensitivity analysis indicated that the model sensitivity varies among different ecosystems. Net primary production of maize is sensitive to temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, fertilizer, and irrigation and less sensitive to atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. In contrast, the net primary production of switchgrass and Miscanthus is most sensitive to temperature among all factors. Nitrous oxide fluxes are sensitive to management in maize ecosystems, and sensitive to climate factors in cellulosic ecosystems. The developed model should help advance our understanding of carbon and nitrogen dynamics of these biofuel ecosystems at both site and regional levels.     

Dominant regions and drivers of the variability of the global land carbon sink across timescales

Net biome productivity (NBP) dominates the observed large variation of atmospheric CO₂ annual increase over the last five decades. However, the dominant regions controlling inter‐annual to multi‐decadal variability of global NBP are still controversial (semi‐arid regions vs. temperate or tropical forests). By developing a theory for partitioning the variance of NBP into the contributions of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (R_h) at different timescales, and using both observation‐based atmospheric CO₂ inversion product and the outputs of 10 process‐based terrestrial ecosystem models forced by 110‐year observational climate, we tried to reconcile the controversy by showing that semi‐arid lands dominate the variability of global NBP at inter‐annual (<10 years) and tropical forests dominate at multi‐decadal scales (>30 years). Results further indicate that global NBP variability is dominated by the NPP component at inter‐annual timescales, and is progressively controlled by R_h with increasing timescale. Multi‐decadal NBP variations of tropical rainforests are modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) through its significant influences on both temperature and precipitation. This study calls for long‐term observations for the decadal or longer fluctuations in carbon fluxes to gain insights on the future evolution of global NBP, particularly in the tropical forests that dominate the decadal variability of land carbon uptake and are more effective for climate mitigation.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in bioenergy ecosystems: 2. Potential greenhouse gas emissions and global warming intensity in the conterminous United States

This study estimated the potential emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from bioenergy ecosystems with a biogeochemical model AgTEM, assuming maize (Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) will be grown on the current maize‐producing areas in the conterminous United States. We found that the maize ecosystem acts as a mild net carbon source while cellulosic ecosystems (i.e., switchgrass and Miscanthus) act as mild sinks. Nitrogen fertilizer use is an important factor affecting biomass production and N₂O emissions, especially in the maize ecosystem. To maintain high biomass productivity, the maize ecosystem emits much more GHG, including CO₂ and N₂O, than switchgrass and Miscanthus ecosystems, when high‐rate nitrogen fertilizers are applied. For maize, the global warming potential (GWP) amounts to 1–2 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1, with a dominant contribution of over 90% from N₂O emissions. Cellulosic crops contribute to the GWP of less than 0.3 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1. Among all three bioenergy crops, Miscanthus is the most biofuel productive and the least GHG intensive at a given cropland. Regional model simulations suggested that substituting Miscanthus for maize to produce biofuel could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions.     

Offsetting global warming‐induced elevated greenhouse gas emissions from an arable soil by biochar application

Global warming will likely enhance greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils. Due to its slow decomposability, biochar is widely recognized as effective in long‐term soil carbon (C) sequestration and in mitigation of soil GHG emissions. In a long‐term soil warming experiment (+2.5 °C, since July 2008) we studied the effect of applying high‐temperature Miscanthus biochar (0, 30 t/ha, since August 2013) on GHG emissions and their global warming potential (GWP) during 2 years in a temperate agroecosystem. Crop growth, physical and chemical soil properties, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (R_s), and metabolic quotient (qCO₂) were investigated to yield further information about single effects of soil warming and biochar as well as on their interactions. Soil warming increased total CO₂ emissions by 28% over 2 years. The effect of warming on soil respiration did not level off as has often been observed in less intensively managed ecosystems. However, the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was not affected by warming. Overall, biochar had no effect on most of the measured parameters, suggesting its high degradation stability and its low influence on microbial C cycling even under elevated soil temperatures. In contrast, biochar × warming interactions led to higher total N₂O emissions, possibly due to accelerated N‐cycling at elevated soil temperature and to biochar‐induced changes in soil properties and environmental conditions. Methane uptake was not affected by soil warming or biochar. The incorporation of biochar‐C into soil was estimated to offset warming‐induced elevated GHG emissions for 25 years. Our results highlight the suitability of biochar for C sequestration in cultivated temperate agricultural soil under a future elevated temperature. However, the increased N₂O emissions under warming limit the GHG mitigation potential of biochar.     

A comparison of isoprene and monoterpene emission rates from the perennial bioenergy crops short‐rotation coppice willow and Miscanthus and the annual arable crops wheat and oilseed rape

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emissions from bioenergy crops may differ from those of conventional crops. We compared emission rates of isoprene and a number of monoterpenes from the lignocellulosic bioenergy crops short‐rotation coppice (SRC) willow and Miscanthus, with the conventional crops wheat and oilseed rape. BVOC emission rates were measured via dynamic vegetation enclosure and GC‐MS analysis approximately monthly between April 2010 and August 2012 at a location in England and from SRC willow at two locations in Scotland. The largest BVOC emission rates were measured from willow in England and varied between years. Isoprene emission rates varied between μg g^?1 h^?1. Of the monoterpenes detected from willow, α‐pinene emission rates were highest (μg g^?1 h^?1), followed by μg g^?1 h^?1 for δ‐3‐carene, μg g^?1 h^?1 for β‐pinene and μg g^?1 h^?1 for limonene. BVOC emission rates measured in Scotland were much lower. Low emission rates of isoprene and α‐pinene were measured from Miscanthus in 2010 (μg g^?1 h^?1 and μg g^?1 h^?1, respectively) but were not detected in subsequent years. Emission rates from wheat of isoprene were negligible but relatively high for monoterpenes (μg g^?1 h^?1 and μg g^?1 h^?1 for α‐pinene and limonene, respectively). No significant emission rates of BVOCs were measured from oilseed rape. The measured emission rates followed a clear seasonal trend. Crude extrapolations based solely on data gathered here indicate that isoprene emissions from willow could correspond to 0.004–0.03% (UK) and 0.76–5.5% (Europe) of current global isoprene if 50% of all land potentially available for bioenergy crops is planted with willow.     

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop‐vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that, cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO₂eq l^?1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO₂eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. However, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop‐specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.     

A Miscanthus plantation can be carbon neutral without increasing soil carbon stocks

National governments and international organizations perceive bioenergy, from crops such as Miscanthus, to have an important role in mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and combating climate change. In this research, we address three objectives aimed at reducing uncertainty regarding the climate change mitigation potential of commercial Miscanthus plantations in the United Kingdom: (i) to examine soil temperature and moisture as potential drivers of soil GHG emissions through four years of parallel measurements, (ii) to quantify carbon (C) dynamics associated with soil sequestration using regular measurements of topsoil (0–30 cm) C and the surface litter layer and (iii) to calculate a life cycle GHG budget using site‐specific measurements, enabling the GHG intensity of Miscanthus used for electricity generation to be compared against coal and natural gas. Our results show that methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions contributed little to the overall GHG budget of Miscanthus, while soil respiration offset 30% of the crop's net aboveground C uptake. Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration was highest during crop growth and lowest during winter months. We observed no significant change in topsoil C or nitrogen stocks following 7 years of Miscanthus cultivation. The depth of litter did, however, increase significantly, stabilizing at approximately 7 tonnes dry biomass per hectare after 6 years. The cradle‐to‐farm gate GHG budget of this crop indicated a net removal of 24.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 from the atmosphere despite no detectable C sequestration in soils. When scaled up to consider the full life cycle, Miscanthus fared very well in comparison with coal and natural gas, suggesting considerable CO₂ offsetting per kWh generated. Although the comparison does not account for the land area requirements of the energy generated, Miscanthus used for electricity generation can make a significant contribution to climate change mitigation even when combusted in conventional steam turbine power plants.     

Multi‐year carbon budget of a mature commercial short rotation coppice willow plantation

Energy derived from second generation perennial energy crops is projected to play an increasingly important role in the decarbonization of the energy sector. Such energy crops are expected to deliver net greenhouse gas emissions reductions through fossil fuel displacement and have potential for increasing soil carbon (C) storage. Despite this, few empirical studies have quantified the ecosystem‐level C balance of energy crops and the evidence base to inform energy policy remains limited. Here, the temporal dynamics and magnitude of net ecosystem carbon dioxide (CO₂) exchange (NEE) were quantified at a mature short rotation coppice (SRC) willow plantation in Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, under commercial growing conditions. Eddy covariance flux observations of NEE were performed over a four‐year production cycle and combined with biomass yield data to estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of the SRC. The magnitude of annual NEE ranged from ?147 ± 70 to ?502 ± 84 g CO₂‐C m^?2 year^?1 with the magnitude of annual CO₂ capture increasing over the production cycle. Defoliation during an unexpected outbreak of willow leaf beetle impacted gross ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, and net ecosystem exchange during the second growth season. The NECB was ?87 ± 303 g CO₂‐C m^?2 for the complete production cycle after accounting for C export at harvest (1,183 g C m^?2), and was approximately CO₂‐C neutral (?21 g CO₂‐C m^?2 year^?1) when annualized. The results of this study are consistent with studies of soil organic C which have shown limited changes following conversion to SRC willow. In the context of global decarbonization, the study indicates that the primary benefit of SRC willow production at the site is through displacement of fossil fuel emissions.     

Growth and fecundity of fertile Miscanthus × giganteus (“PowerCane”) compared to feral and ornamental Miscanthus sinensis in a common garden experiment: Implications for invasion

Perennial grasses are promising candidates for bioenergy crops, but species that can escape cultivation and establish self‐sustaining naturalized populations (feral) may have the potential to become invasive. Fertile Miscanthus × giganteus, known as “PowerCane,” is a new potential biofuel crop. Its parent species are ornamental, non‐native Miscanthus species that establish feral populations and are sometimes invasive in the USA. As a first step toward assessing the potential for “PowerCane” to become invasive, we documented its growth and fecundity relative to one of its parent species (Miscanthus sinensis) in competition with native and invasive grasses in common garden experiments located in Columbus, Ohio and Ames, Iowa, within the targeted range of biofuel cultivation. We conducted a 2‐year experiment to compare growth and reproduction among three Miscanthus biotypes—”PowerCane,” ornamental M. sinensis, and feral M. sinensis—at two locations. Single Miscanthus plants were subjected to competition with a native grass (Panicum virgatum), a weedy grass (Bromus inermis), or no competition. Response variables were aboveground biomass, number of shoots, basal area, and seed set. In Iowa, all Miscanthus plants died after the first winter, which was unusually cold, so no further results are reported from the Iowa site. In Ohio, we found significant differences among biotypes in growth and fecundity, as well as significant effects of competition. Interactions between these treatments were not significant. “PowerCane” performed as well or better than ornamental or feral M. sinensis in vegetative traits, but had much lower seed production, perhaps due to pollen limitation. In general, ornamental M. sinensis performed somewhat better than feral M. sinensis. Our findings suggest that feral populations of “PowerCane” could become established adjacent to biofuel production areas. Fertile Miscanthus × giganteus should be studied further to assess its potential to spread via seed production in large, sexually compatible populations.     

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm‐gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus,Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China

Spatially explicit farm‐gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost–supply curves. The average farm‐gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%‐15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm‐gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm‐gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63￥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).