Cellulosic feedstock production on Conservation Reserve Program land: potential yields and environmental effects

Producing biofuel feedstocks on current agricultural land raises questions of a ‘food‐vs.‐fuel’ trade‐off. The use of current or former Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) land offers an alternative; yet the volumes of ethanol that could be produced and the potential environmental impacts of such a policy are unclear. Here, we applied the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model to a US Department of Agriculture database of over 200 000 CRP polygons in Iowa, USA, as a case study. We simulated yields and environmental impacts of growing three cellulosic biofuel feedstocks on CRP land: (i) an Alamo‐variety switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.); (ii) a generalized mixture of C4 and C3 grasses; (iii) and no‐till corn (Zea mays L.) with residue removal. We simulated yields, soil erosion, and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks and fluxes. We found that although no‐till corn with residue removal produced approximately 2.6–4.4 times more ethanol per area compared to switchgrass and the grass mixture, it also led to 3.9–4.5 times more erosion, 4.4–5.2 times more cumulative N loss, and a 10% reduction in total soil carbon as opposed to a 6–11% increase. Switchgrass resulted in the best environmental outcomes even when expressed on a per liter ethanol basis. Our results suggest planting no‐till corn with residue removal should only be done on low slope soils to minimize environmental concerns. Overall, this analysis provides additional information to policy makers on the potential outcome and effects of producing biofuel feedstocks on current or former conservation lands.     

Supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois and implications for the Conservation Reserve Program

We developed a mathematical programming model to estimate the supply of cellulosic biomass in Illinois at various biomass prices and examine the implications of biomass production for the maintenance costs of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). We find that Illinois has the potential to produce about 38.4–54.5 million dry metric tons (MT) of biomass in 2020 at a biomass price of $150/MT, depending on the production costs of cellulosic feedstocks, residue collection technology, and rates of yield increases of conventional crops. Corn stover will account for more than 65% of the total biomass production across biomass prices and the scenarios considered, while the roles of wheat straw and energy crops are quite limited. Given biomass prices of $50/MT‐$150/MT, many landowners would convert their expiring CRP lands to croplands. To maintain the size of the CRP during the 2007–2020 period at the 2007 levels in Illinois, total program maintenance costs would be $104.6–176.5 million at a biomass price of $50/MT, depending on biomass production conditions and crop yields on CRP lands. This would increase to $155.2–245.4 million at a biomass price of $150/MT.     

The impacts of Miscanthus×giganteus production on the Midwest US hydrologic cycle

Perennial grasses are being considered as candidates for biofuel feedstocks to provide an alternative energy source to fossil fuels. Miscanthus×giganteus (miscanthus), in particular, is a grass that is predicted to provide more energy per sown area than corn ethanol and reduce net carbon dioxide emissions by increasing the storage of carbon belowground. Miscanthus uses more water than Zea mays (maize), mainly as a result of a longer growing season and higher productivity. Conversion of current land use for miscanthus production will likely disrupt regional hydrologic cycles, yet the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of effects are unknown. Here, we show the effects of five different scenarios of miscanthus production on the simulated Midwest US hydrologic cycle. Given the same historic precipitation observations, our ecosystem model simulation results show that on an annual basis miscanthus uses more water than the ecosystems it will likely replace. The actual timing and magnitude of increased water loss to the atmosphere depends on location; however, substantial increases only occur when miscanthus fraction cover exceeds 25% in dry regions and 50% in nearly all of the Midwest. Our results delineate where large‐scale land use conversion to perennial biofuel grasses might deplete soil water resources. Given the fact that some watersheds within the Midwest already have depleted water resources, we expect our results to inform decisions on where to grow perennial grasses for biofuel use to ensure sustainability of energy and water resources, and to minimize the potential for deleterious effects to water quantity and quality.     

Soil carbon and belowground carbon balance of a short‐rotation coppice: assessments from three different approaches

Uncertainty in soil carbon (C) fluxes across different land‐use transitions is an issue that needs to be addressed for the further deployment of perennial bioenergy crops. A large‐scale short‐rotation coppice (SRC) site with poplar (Populus) and willow (Salix) was established to examine the land‐use transitions of arable and pasture to bioenergy. Soil C pools, output fluxes of soil CO₂, CH₄, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and volatile organic compounds, as well as input fluxes from litter fall and from roots, were measured over a 4‐year period, along with environmental parameters. Three approaches were used to estimate changes in the soil C. The largest C pool in the soil was the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool and increased after four years of SRC from 10.9 to 13.9 kg C m^?2. The belowground woody biomass (coarse roots) represented the second largest C pool, followed by the fine roots (Fr). The annual leaf fall represented the largest C input to the soil, followed by weeds and Fr. After the first harvest, we observed a very large C input into the soil from high Fr mortality. The weed inputs decreased as trees grew older and bigger. Soil respiration averaged 568.9 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Leaching of DOC increased over the three years from 7.9 to 14.5 g C m^?2. The pool‐based approach indicated an increase of 3360 g C m^?2 in the SOC pool over the 4‐year period, which was high when compared with the ?27 g C m^?2 estimated by the flux‐based approach and the ?956 g C m^?2 of the combined eddy‐covariance + biometric approach. High uncertainties were associated to the pool‐based approach. Our results suggest using the C flux approach for the assessment of the short‐/medium‐term SOC balance at our site, while SOC pool changes can only be used for long‐term C balance assessments.     

A pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature

Temperature is a core component of a species' fundamental niche. At the fine scale over which most organisms experience climate (mm to ha), temperature depends upon the amount of radiation reaching the Earth's surface, which is principally governed by vegetation. Tropical regions have undergone widespread and extreme changes to vegetation, particularly through the degradation and conversion of rainforests. As most terrestrial biodiversity is in the tropics, and many of these species possess narrow thermal limits, it is important to identify local thermal impacts of rainforest degradation and conversion. We collected pantropical, site‐level (<1 ha) temperature data from the literature to quantify impacts of land‐use change on local temperatures, and to examine whether this relationship differed aboveground relative to belowground and between wet and dry seasons. We found that local temperature in our sample sites was higher than primary forest in all human‐impacted land‐use types (N = 113,894 daytime temperature measurements from 25 studies). Warming was pronounced following conversion of forest to agricultural land (minimum +1.6°C, maximum +13.6°C), but minimal and nonsignificant when compared to forest degradation (e.g., by selective logging; minimum +1°C, maximum +1.1°C). The effect was buffered belowground (minimum buffering 0°C, maximum buffering 11.4°C), whereas seasonality had minimal impact (maximum buffering 1.9°C). We conclude that forest‐dependent species that persist following conversion of rainforest have experienced substantial local warming. Deforestation pushes these species closer to their thermal limits, making it more likely that compounding effects of future perturbations, such as severe droughts and global warming, will exceed species' tolerances. By contrast, degraded forests and belowground habitats may provide important refugia for thermally restricted species in landscapes dominated by agricultural land.     

Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO₂ concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂ was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system.     

基于CA-Markov模型的艾比湖湿地自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及预测

以艾比湖湿地自然保护区为研究区域,以1998、2006年Landsat TM影像和2014年Landsat OLI影像的土地利用/覆被分类结果为输入数据,采用CA-Markov模型,预测研究区未来的土地利用/覆被格局.在模型建立过程中,通过Markov模型求出转移概率矩阵和转移面积矩阵,确定CA模型转换规则,限制CA模型迭代次数.利用CA-Markov模型模拟预测研究区2014、2022和2030年土地利用/覆被格局,并采用2014年实际土地利用/覆被分类结果验证预测精度,得到2014年各土地利用/覆被类型面积预测误差均≤6.4%,空间位置预测精度达到76.0%.结果表明: 1998—2014年,艾比湖湿地自然保护区林草地、盐碱地、干涸湖床和沙漠增加,其中,盐碱地的增幅最突出,增加了37.4%;水体和其他地类减少,且水体的减少突出,减少了34.8%.2014—2030年,艾比湖湿地自然保护区林草地、盐碱地和沙漠将呈增加趋势,而干涸湖床、水体和其他地类将减少.该研究可以为艾比湖自然保护区的土地利用/覆被动态监测以及可持续发展提供依据.     

城市扩张对北京市城乡结合部自然和农业景观的影响——以昌平区三镇为例

城乡结合部自然和农业生态系统是确保城市生态安全的重要基础。研究快速城市化背景下城乡结合部自然和农业景观的时空演变规律和驱动因素,能够为相关规划的编制和保护政策的制定提供科学支撑。以北京市三个典型的城乡结合部乡镇为例,通过对1999、2004和2010年三期SPOT遥感影像的解译,获取三镇三个时期土地利用/覆盖(Land Use/Land Cover,LULC)数据。在此基础上,借助Arc GIS空间叠加功能和土地利用转移矩阵,分析1999—2010年三镇LULC的时空变化特征;并通过空间自相性和景观连通性分析,研究近十年来三镇建设用地的空间聚集特征以及自然和农业景观空间连通性的变化,分析城市扩张对三镇自然和农业景观格局和稳定性的影响。最后,采用定量和定性相结合的方法,分析三镇自然和农业景观变化的驱动力。结果表明,1999—2010年三镇经历了剧烈的LUCC过程,建设用地、林地和草地面积大幅增加,伴随的是农业用地和水域面积的急剧减少。各种土地利用类型之间都存在着相互转移,特别是农业用地向建设用地、林地和草地,以及林地向建设用地转移明显。新增建设用地大多通过侵占原有建设用地周边的农业用地和林地,而实现"成片蔓延式"扩张;并造成了三镇自然和农业景观连通性的急剧下降,危及到该区域生态系统结构的完整性和功能的持续性。社会经济发展、土地利用规划、公共政策等共同决定着三镇LUCC的结构、规模和空间分布,是三镇自然和农业景观格局演变的主要驱动力。     

Identifying conservation priority areas and predicting the climate change impact on the future habitats of endangered Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. utilizing ecological niche modelling

Developing strategies for effective species conservation is necessary to counter the ever-fluctuating environmental conditions with increasing anthropogenic activities. Studies have proven Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) as an effective tool for sustainable conservation. Nepenthes khasiana Hook.f. is an endangered pitcher plant facing a constant decline in population due to anthropogenic activities. This study aimed to locate the most suitable areas for re-establishing the species in natural habitats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling, and to forecast the effects of current and future climate conditions on its distribution throughout Northeast India. The potential suitable areas in future climate under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and in the current climate were predicted utilizing the 30 occurrence data, bioclimatic predictors, and variables from BCC-CSM1.1 model and WorldClim respectively. The results of the current study showed significant relationships among annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, seasonality of precipitation, annual range iso-thermality of temperature, mean diurnal range [Mean of monthly (max temp - min temp)], and the distribution of the analysed species. The optimum model performance was represented by the AUC value of 0.972 ± 0.007. The model predicted 10.70% of the NE Indian region as climatically suitable, which will expand under RCP4.5 and RCP6.0, reaching 15.35%, and 12.64%, respectively. However, this may degrade significantly under RCP8.5, reducing to 8.14%. Based on the analysis of modelling results it was found that the Nokrek belt and the Khasi hills as highly suitable regions for the reintroduction of the species. The study revalidated ENM as an effective means to identify new populations and predict the influence of climate change on the future habitat which can benefit the concurrent species management strategies.     

Effect of historical land‐use and climate change on tree‐climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree‐climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree‐climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land‐use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land‐use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land‐use interactions are compounding, in which historical land‐use reinforces shifts in species‐climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land‐use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary‐based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.