Implications of emissions timing on the cost‐effectiveness of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: application to forest bioenergy systems

Conventional cost‐effectiveness calculations ignore the implications of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions timing and thus may not properly inform decision‐makers in the efficient allocation of resources to mitigate climate change. To begin to address this disconnect with climate change science, we modify the conventional cost‐effectiveness approach to account for emissions timing. GHG emissions flows occurring over time are translated into an ‘Equivalent Present Emission’ based on radiative forcing, enabling a comparison of system costs and emissions on a consistent present time basis. We apply this ‘Present Cost‐Effectiveness’ method to case studies of biomass‐based electricity generation (biomass co‐firing with coal, biomass cogeneration) to evaluate implications of forest carbon trade‐offs on the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions. Bioenergy production from forest biomass can reduce forest carbon stocks, an immediate emissions source that contributes to atmospheric greenhouse gases. Forest carbon impacts thereby lessen emission reductions in the near‐term relative to the assumption of biomass ‘carbon neutrality’, resulting in higher costs of emission reductions when emissions timing is considered. In contrast, conventional cost‐effectiveness approaches implicitly evaluate strategies over an infinite analytical time horizon, underestimating nearer term emissions reduction costs and failing to identify pathways that can most efficiently contribute to climate change mitigation objectives over shorter time spans (e.g. up to 100 years). While providing only a simple representation of the climate change implications of emissions timing, the Present Cost‐Effectiveness method provides a straightforward approach to assessing the cost‐effectiveness of emission reductions associated with any climate change mitigation strategy where future GHG reductions require significant initial capital investment or increase near‐term emissions. Timing is a critical factor in determining the attractiveness of any investment; accounting for emissions timing can better inform decisions related to the merit of alternative resource uses to meet near‐, mid‐, and long‐term climate change mitigation objectives.     

Is woody bioenergy carbon neutral? A comparative assessment of emissions from consumption of woody bioenergy and fossil fuel

Under the current accounting systems, emissions produced when biomass is burnt for energy are accounted as zero, resulting in what is referred to as the ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption. However, if current harvest levels are increased to produce more bioenergy, carbon that would have been stored in the biosphere might be instead released in the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comparative approach that considers emissions under alternative energy supply options. This approach shows that the emission benefits of bioenergy compared to use of fossil fuel are time‐dependent. It emerges that the assumption that bioenergy always results in zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to use of fossil fuels can be misleading, particularly in the context of short‐to‐medium term goals. While it is clear that all sources of woody bioenergy from sustainably managed forests will produce emission reductions in the long term, different woody biomass sources have various impacts in the short‐medium term. The study shows that the use of forest residues that are easily decomposable can produce GHG benefits compared to use of fossil fuels from the beginning of their use and that biomass from dedicated plantations established on marginal land can be carbon neutral from the beginning of its use. However, the risk of short‐to‐medium term negative impacts is high when additional fellings are extracted to produce bioenergy and the proportion of felled biomass used for bioenergy is low, or when land with high C stocks is converted to low productivity bioenergy plantations. The method used in the study provides an instrument to identify the time‐dependent pattern of emission reductions for alternative bioenergy sources. In this way, decision makers can evaluate which bioenergy options are most beneficial for meeting short‐term GHG emission reduction goals and which ones are more appropriate for medium to longer term objectives.     

Carbon debt repayment or carbon sequestration parity? Lessons from a forest bioenergy case study in Ontario,Canada

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies.     

Biogenic vs. geologic carbon emissions and forest biomass energy production

In the current debate over the CO₂ emissions implications of switching from fossil fuel energy sources to include a substantial amount of woody biomass energy, many scientists and policy makers hold the view that emissions from the two sources should not be equated. Their rationale is that the combustion or decay of woody biomass is simply part of the global cycle of biogenic carbon and does not increase the amount of carbon in circulation. This view is frequently presented as justification to implement policies that encourage the substitution of fossil fuel energy sources with biomass. We present the opinion that this is an inappropriate conceptual basis to assess the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting of woody biomass energy generation. While there are many other environmental, social, and economic reasons to move to woody biomass energy, we argue that the inferred benefits of biogenic emissions over fossil fuel emissions should be reconsidered.     

Biogenic Carbon and Temporary Storage Addressed with Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment

A growing tendency in policy making and carbon footprint estimation gives value to temporary carbon storage in biomass products or to delayed greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Some life cycle‐based methods, such as the British publicly available specification (PAS) 2050 or the recently published European Commission's International Reference Life Cycle Data System (ILCD) Handbook, address this issue. This article shows the importance of consistent consideration of biogenic carbon and timing of GHG emissions in life cycle assessment (LCA) and carbon footprint analysis. We use a fictitious case study assessing the life cycle of a wooden chair for four end‐of‐life scenarios to compare different approaches: traditional LCA with and without consideration of biogenic carbon, the PAS 2050 and ILCD Handbook methods, and a dynamic LCA approach. Reliable results require accounting for the timing of every GHG emission, including biogenic carbon flows, as soon as a benefit is given for temporarily storing carbon or delaying GHG emissions. The conclusions of a comparative LCA can change depending on the time horizon chosen for the analysis. The dynamic LCA approach allows for a consistent assessment of the impact, through time, of all GHG emissions (positive) and sequestration (negative). The dynamic LCA is also a valuable approach for decision makers who have to understand the sensitivity of the conclusions to the chosen time horizon.     

Wood pellets,what else? Greenhouse gas parity times of European electricity from wood pellets produced in the south‐eastern United States using different softwood feedstocks

Several EU countries import wood pellets from the south‐eastern United States. The imported wood pellets are (co‐)fired in power plants with the aim of reducing overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electricity and meeting EU renewable energy targets. To assess whether GHG emissions are reduced and on what timescale, we construct the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity. This GHG balance consists of supply chain and combustion GHG emissions, carbon sequestration during biomass growth and avoided GHG emissions through replacing fossil electricity. We investigate wood pellets from four softwood feedstock types: small roundwood, commercial thinnings, harvest residues and mill residues. Per feedstock, the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity is compared against those of alternative scenarios. Alternative scenarios are combinations of alternative fates of the feedstock materials, such as in‐forest decomposition, or the production of paper or wood panels like oriented strand board (OSB). Alternative scenario composition depends on feedstock type and local demand for this feedstock. Results indicate that the GHG balance of wood‐pellet electricity equals that of alternative scenarios within 0–21 years (the GHG parity time), after which wood‐pellet electricity has sustained climate benefits. Parity times increase by a maximum of 12 years when varying key variables (emissions associated with paper and panels, soil carbon increase via feedstock decomposition, wood‐pellet electricity supply chain emissions) within maximum plausible ranges. Using commercial thinnings, harvest residues or mill residues as feedstock leads to the shortest GHG parity times (0–6 years) and fastest GHG benefits from wood‐pellet electricity. We find shorter GHG parity times than previous studies, for we use a novel approach that differentiates feedstocks and considers alternative scenarios based on (combinations of) alternative feedstock fates, rather than on alternative land uses. This novel approach is relevant for bioenergy derived from low‐value feedstocks.     

Forest bioenergy climate impact can be improved by allocating forest residue removal

Bioenergy from forest residues can be used to avoid fossil carbon emissions, but removing biomass from forests reduces carbon stock sizes and carbon input to litter and soil. The magnitude and longevity of these carbon stock changes determine how effective measures to utilize bioenergy from forest residues are to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector and to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimate the variability of GHG emissions and consequent climate impacts resulting from producing bioenergy from stumps, branches and residual biomass of forest thinning operations in Finland, and the contribution of the variability in key factors, i.e. forest residue diameter, tree species, geographical location of the forest biomass removal site and harvesting method, to the emissions and their climate impact. The GHG emissions and the consequent climate impacts estimated as changes in radiative forcing were comparable to fossil fuels when bioenergy production from forest residues was initiated. The emissions and climate impacts decreased over time because forest residues were predicted to decompose releasing CO₂ even if left in the forest. Both were mainly affected by forest residue diameter and climatic conditions of the forest residue collection site. Tree species and the harvest method of thinning wood (whole tree or stem‐only) had a smaller effect on the magnitude of emissions. The largest reduction in the energy production climate impacts after 20 years, up to 62%, was achieved when coal was replaced by the branches collected from Southern Finland, whereas the smallest reduction 7% was gained by using stumps from Northern Finland instead of natural gas. After 100 years the corresponding values were 77% and 21%. The choice of forest residue biomass collected affects significantly the emissions and climate impacts of forest bioenergy.     

森林经营与管理下的温室气体排放、碳泄漏和净固碳量研究进展

森林在减缓全球气候变化和大气CO₂浓度升高上具有重要作用.森林经营与管理下的新造林和森林保护具有显著的固碳功能,其中,新造林和森林保护的固碳速率分别为0.04～7.52、0.33～5.20 t C·hm^-2·a^-1.同时,营造林过程中物资的生产和运输导致边界内产生温室气体排放;营造林导致的活动转移、市场效应和生态环境变化导致边界外产生碳泄漏.本文综述了国内外森林经营与管理活动边界内温室气体排放源的界定、计量方法、温室气体排放量与排放速率;边界外碳泄漏的类型、计量方法与碳泄漏量;净固碳量以及温室气体排放和碳泄漏对固碳的抵消强度.边界内温室气体排放对固碳的抵消强度为0.01%～19.3%,进一步考虑碳泄漏时可增至95%.若仅考虑森林经营与管理在边界内直接产生的温室气体排放与可测量的活动转移碳泄漏,森林经营与管理具有较好的净固碳效益,且相比于农田固碳措施在温室气体净减排方面具有更好的应用前景.随着我国各项重大生态工程新一期的开展和对工程固碳效益的关注,为增加重大生态工程对温室气体的净减排量,有必要在工程开展前进行合理规划、在工程开展过程中加强控制和监测以减少工程实施导致的边界内温室气体排放和边界外碳泄漏.     

Using ecosystem CO2 measurements to estimate the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest bioenergy

Forest bioenergy opportunities may be hindered by a long greenhouse gas (GHG) payback time. Estimating this payback time requires the quantification of forest‐atmosphere carbon exchanges, usually through process‐based simulation models. Such models are prone to large uncertainties, especially over long‐term carbon fluxes from dead organic matter pools. We propose the use of whole ecosystem field‐measured CO₂ exchanges obtained from eddy covariance flux towers to assess the GHG mitigation potential of forest biomass projects as a way to implicitly integrate all field‐level CO₂ fluxes and the inter‐annual variability in these fluxes. As an example, we perform the evaluation of a theoretical bioenergy project that uses tree stems as bioenergy feedstock and include multi‐year measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from forest harvest chronosequences in the boreal forest of Canada to estimate the time dynamics of ecosystem CO₂ exchanges following harvesting. Results from this approach are consistent with previous results using process‐based models and suggest a multi‐decadal payback time for our project. The time for atmospheric carbon debt repayment of bioenergy projects is highly dependent on ecosystem‐level CO₂ exchanges. The use of empirical NEE measurements may provide a direct evaluation of, or at least constraints on, the GHG mitigation potential of forest bioenergy projects.     

Life cycle analysis of biochemical cellulosic ethanol under multiple scenarios

Cellulosic ethanol is widely believed to offer substantial environmental advantages over petroleum fuels and grain‐based ethanol, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. The environmental impacts of biofuels are largely caused by precombustion activities, feedstock production and conversion facility operations. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is required to understand these impacts. This article describes a field‐to‐blending terminal LCA of cellulosic ethanol produced by biochemical conversion (hydrolysis and fermentation) using corn stover or switchgrass as feedstock. This LCA develops unique models for most elements of the biofuel production process and assigns environmental impact to different phases of production. More than 30 scenarios are evaluated, reflecting a range of feedstock, technology and scale options for near‐term and future facilities. Cellulosic ethanol, as modeled here, has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum‐based liquid transportation fuels, though substantial uncertainty exists. Most of the conservative scenarios estimate GHG emissions of approximately 45–60 g carbon dioxide equivalent per MJ of delivered fuel (g CO₂e MJ^?1) without credit for coproducts, and 20–30 g CO₂e MJ^?1 when coproducts are considered. Under most scenarios, feedstock production, grinding and transport dominate the total GHG footprint. The most optimistic scenarios include sequestration of carbon in soil and have GHG emissions below zero g CO₂e MJ^?1, while the most pessimistic have life‐cycle GHG emissions higher than petroleum gasoline. Soil carbon changes are the greatest source of uncertainty, dominating all other sources of GHG emissions at the upper bound of their uncertainty. Many LCAs of biofuels are narrowly constrained to GHG emissions and energy; however, these narrow assessments may miss important environmental impacts. To ensure a more holistic assessment of environmental performance, a complete life cycle inventory, with over 1100 tracked material and energy flows for each scenario is provided in the online supplementary material for this article.     

Life cycle assessment of eucalyptus short rotation coppices for bioenergy production in southern France

Short rotation coppices (SRC) are considered prime candidates for biomass production, yielding good‐quality feedstock that is easy to harvest. Besides technical, social and economical aspects, environmental issues are important to be taken into account when developing SRC. Here, we evaluated the environmental impacts of delivering 1 GJ of heat from eucalyptus SRC using life cycle assessment (LCA), based on management scenarios involving different rotations lengths, fertilizer input rates, stem densities and harvest methods. Compared to equivalent fossil chains, all eucalyptus scenarios achieved savings of fossil energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 80–90% range, and had generally lower impacts, except for eutrophication. The 3 year rotation scenario was the most energy and GHG‐intensive, whereas manual felling for the longer rotations resulted in twofold larger photochemical ozone impacts compared to the other scenarios. Transportation of wood chips and fertilization were the top two contributors to the impacts, the latter being more important with the shorter rotation lengths due to the evergreen character of eucalyptus. The possibility of including ecosystem carbon dynamics was also investigated, by translating the temporary sequestration of atmospheric CO₂ in the above and belowground biomass of eucalyptus as CO₂ savings using various published equivalence factors. This offset the life cycle GHG emissions of heat provision from eucalyptus SRC by 70–400%.     

Implementing Carbon‐Footprint‐Based Calculation Tools in Municipal Greenhouse Gas Inventories

Policy makers and practitioners working on local climate action continuously strive for improved greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories to support their mitigation strategies. The provision of such inventories, with the sufficient detail and quality needed, has proven to be challenging. This article describes the application of a carbon‐footprint–based (CF‐based) calculation tool to Norwegian municipalities. The aim is to improve the local GHG inventory, with a particular focus on the emissions resulting from the provision of services by local governments. Through selective CF analysis, we aim to illustrate the knowledge gained from implementing these tools in local climate action plans and to further contrast CF‐based calculations with more traditional production‐based accounting. Municipalities report they have revised their understanding of the most important GHG mitigation strategies after implementing this tool.     

Soil greenhouse gas,carbon content,and tree growth response to biochar amendment in western United States forests

Restoring overstocked forests by thinning and pyrolyzing residual biomass produces biochar and other value‐added products. Forest soils amended with biochar have potential to sequester carbon (C), improve soil quality, and alter greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions without depleting nutrient stocks. Yet, few studies have examined the effects of biochar on GHG emissions and tree growth in temperate forest soils. We measured GHG emissions, soil C content, and tree growth at managed forest sites in Idaho, Montana, and Oregon. We applied biochar amendments of 0, 2.5, or 25 Mg/ha to the forest soil surface. Flux of carbon dioxide and methane varied by season; however, neither were affected by biochar amendment. Flux of nitrous oxide was not detected at these nitrogen‐limited and unfertilized forest sites. Biochar amendment increased soil C content by 41% but did not affect tree growth. Overall, biochar had no detrimental effects on forest trees or soils. We conclude that biochar can be used harmlessly for climate change mitigation in forests by sequestering C in the soil.     

Approaches for inclusion of forest carbon cycle in life cycle assessment – a review

Forests are a significant pool of terrestrial carbon. A key feature related to forest biomass harvesting and use is the typical time difference between carbon release into and sequestration from the atmosphere. Traditionally, the use of sustainably grown biomass has been considered as carbon neutral in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies. However, various approaches to account for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks of forest biomass acquisition and use have also been developed and applied, resulting in different conclusions on climate impacts of forest products. The aim of this study is to summarize, clarify, and assess the suitability of these approaches for LCA. A literature review is carried out, and the results are analyzed through an assessment framework. The different approaches are reviewed through their approach to the definition of reference land‐use situation, consideration of time frame and timing of carbon emissions and sequestration, substitution credits, and indicators applied to measure climate impacts. On the basis of the review, it is concluded that, to account for GHG emissions and the related climate impacts objectively, biomass carbon stored in the products and the timing of sinks and emissions should be taken into account in LCA. The reference situation for forest land use has to be defined appropriately, describing the development in the absence of the studied system. We suggest the use of some climate impact indicator that takes the timing of the emissions and sinks into consideration and enables the use of different time frames. If substitution credits are considered, they need to be transparently presented in the results. Instead of carbon stock values taken from the literature, the use of dynamic forest models is recommended.     

Sustainability guidelines and forest market response: an assessment of European Union pellet demand in the southeastern United States

Woody biomass from the southeast United States is expected to play an important role in meeting European Union renewable energy targets. In crafting policies to guide bioenergy development and in guiding investment decisions to meet established policy goals, a firm understanding of the interaction between policy targets and forest biomass markets is necessary, as is the effect that this interaction will have on environmental and economic objectives. This analysis increases our understanding of these interactions by modeling the response of southern US forest markets to new pellet demand in the presence of sustainability sourcing or harvest criteria. We first assess the influence of EU recommended sustainability guidelines on the forest inventory available to supply EU markets, and then model changes in forest composition and extent in response to expected increases in pellet demand. Next, we assess how sustainability guidelines can influence the evolution of forest markets in the region, paying particular attention to changes in land use and forest carbon. Regardless of whether sustainability guidelines are applied, we find increased removals, an increase in forest area, and little change in forest inventory. We also find annual gains in forest carbon in most years of the analysis. The incremental effect of sustainability guideline application on forest carbon and pellet greenhouse gas (GHG) balance is difficult to discern, but results suggest that guidelines could be steering production away from sensitive forest types inherently less responsive to changing market conditions. Pellet GHG balance shows significant annual change and is attributable to the complexity of the underlying forest landscape. The manner by which GHG balance is tracked is thus a critical policy decision, reinforcing the importance and relevance of current efforts to develop approaches to accurately account for the GHG implications of biomass use both in the United States and European Union.     

The greenhouse gas intensity and potential biofuel production capacity of maize stover harvest in the US Midwest

Agricultural residues are important sources of feedstock for a cellulosic biofuels industry that is being developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy independence. While the US Midwest has been recognized as key to providing maize stover for meeting near‐term cellulosic biofuel production goals, there is uncertainty that such feedstocks can produce biofuels that meet federal cellulosic standards. Here, we conducted extensive site‐level calibration of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) terrestrial ecosystems model and applied the model at high spatial resolution across the US Midwest to improve estimates of the maximum production potential and greenhouse gas emissions expected from continuous maize residue‐derived biofuels. A comparison of methodologies for calculating the soil carbon impacts of residue harvesting demonstrates the large impact of study duration, depth of soil considered, and inclusion of litter carbon in soil carbon change calculations on the estimated greenhouse gas intensity of maize stover‐derived biofuels. Using the most representative methodology for assessing long‐term residue harvesting impacts, we estimate that only 5.3 billion liters per year (bly) of ethanol, or 8.7% of the near‐term US cellulosic biofuel demand, could be met under common no‐till farming practices. However, appreciably more feedstock becomes available at modestly higher emissions levels, with potential for 89.0 bly of ethanol production meeting US advanced biofuel standards. Adjustments to management practices, such as adding cover crops to no‐till management, will be required to produce sufficient quantities of residue meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction standard for cellulosic biofuels. Considering the rapid increase in residue availability with modest relaxations in GHG reduction level, it is expected that management practices with modest benefits to soil carbon would allow considerable expansion of potential cellulosic biofuel production.     

Time-dependent radiative forcing effects of forest fertilization and biomass substitution

Here we analyse the radiative forcing implications of forest fertilization and biomass substitution, with explicit consideration of the temporal patterns of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to and removals from the atmosphere (net emissions). We model and compare the production and use of biomass from a hectare of fertilized and non-fertilized forest land in northern Sweden. We calculate the annual net emissions of CO₂, N₂O and CH₄ for each system, over a 225-year period with 1-year time steps. We calculate the annual atmospheric concentration decay of each of these emissions, and calculate the resulting annual changes in instantaneous and cumulative radiative forcing. We find that forest fertilization can significantly increase biomass production, which increases the potential for material and energy substitution. The average carbon stock in tree biomass, forest soils and wood products all increase when fertilization is used. The additional GHG emissions due to fertilizer production and application are small compared to increases in substitution benefits and carbon stock. The radiative forcing of the 2 stands is identical for the first 15?years, followed by 2?years during which the fertilized stand produces slightly more radiative forcing. After year 18 the instantaneous and cumulative radiative forcing are consistently lower for the fertilized forest system. Both stands result in long-term negative radiative forcing, or cooling of the earth system. By the end of the 225-year simulation period, the cumulative radiative forcing reduction of the fertilized stand is over twice that of the non-fertilized stand. This suggests that forest fertilization and biomass substitution are effective options for climate change mitigation, as climate change is a long term issue.     

Large‐scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral

Owing to the peculiarities of forest net primary production humans would appropriate ca. 60% of the global increment of woody biomass if forest biomass were to produce 20% of current global primary energy supply. We argue that such an increase in biomass harvest would result in younger forests, lower biomass pools, depleted soil nutrient stocks and a loss of other ecosystem functions. The proposed strategy is likely to miss its main objective, i.e. to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because it would result in a reduction of biomass pools that may take decades to centuries to be paid back by fossil fuel substitution, if paid back at all. Eventually, depleted soil fertility will make the production unsustainable and require fertilization, which in turn increases GHG emissions due to N₂O emissions. Hence, large‐scale production of bioenergy from forest biomass is neither sustainable nor GHG neutral.     

Range and uncertainties in estimating delays in greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest bioenergy sourced from Canadian forests

Accurately assessing the delay before the substitution of fossil fuel by forest bioenergy starts having a net beneficial impact on atmospheric CO₂ is becoming important as the cost of delaying GHG emission reductions is increasingly being recognized. We documented the time to carbon (C) parity of forest bioenergy sourced from different feedstocks (harvest residues, salvaged trees, and green trees), typical of forest biomass production in Canada, used to replace three fossil fuel types (coal, oil, and natural gas) in heating or power generation. The time to C parity is defined as the time needed for the newly established bioenergy system to reach the cumulative C emissions of a fossil fuel, counterfactual system. Furthermore, we estimated an uncertainty period derived from the difference in C parity time between predefined best‐ and worst‐case scenarios, in which parameter values related to the supply chain and forest dynamics varied. The results indicate short‐to‐long ranking of C parity times for residues < salvaged trees < green trees and for substituting the less energy‐dense fossil fuels (coal < oil < natural gas). A sensitivity analysis indicated that silviculture and enhanced conversion efficiency, when occurring only in the bioenergy system, help reduce time to C parity. The uncertainty around the estimate of C parity time is generally small and inconsequential in the case of harvest residues but is generally large for the other feedstocks, indicating that meeting specific C parity time using feedstock other than residues is possible, but would require very specific conditions. Overall, the use of single parity time values to evaluate the performance of a particular feedstock in mitigating GHG emissions should be questioned given the importance of uncertainty as an inherent component of any bioenergy project.     

Net land‐atmosphere flows of biogenic carbon related to bioenergy: towards an understanding of systemic feedbacks

The notion that biomass combustion is carbon neutral vis‐a‐vis the atmosphere because carbon released during biomass combustion is absorbed during plant regrowth is inherent in the greenhouse gas accounting rules in many regulations and conventions. But this ‘carbon neutrality’ assumption of bioenergy is an oversimplification that can result in major flaws in emission accounting; it may even result in policies that increase, instead of reduce, overall greenhouse gas emissions. This commentary discusses the systemic feedbacks and ecosystem succession/land‐use history issues ignored by the carbon neutrality assumption. Based on recent literature, three cases are elaborated which show that the C balance of bioenergy may range from highly beneficial to strongly detrimental, depending on the plants grown, the land used (including its land‐use history) as well as the fossil energy replaced. The article concludes by proposing the concept of GHG cost curves of bioenergy as a means for optimizing the climate benefits of bioenergy policies.