Projections of the availability and cost of residues from agriculture and forestry

By‐products of agricultural and forestry processes, known as residues, may act as a primary source of renewable energy. Studies assessing the availability of this resource offer little insight on the drivers and constraints of the available potential as well as the associated costs and how these may vary across scenarios. This study projects long‐term global supply curves of the available potential using consistent scenarios of agriculture and forestry production, livestock production and fuel use from the spatially explicit integrated assessment model IMAGE. In the projections, residue production is related to agricultural and forestry production and intensification, and the limiting effect of ecological and alternative uses of residues are accounted for. Depending on the scenario, theoretical potential is projected to increase from approximately 120 EJ yr^?1 today to 140–170 EJ yr^?1 by 2100, coming mostly from agricultural production. To maintain ecological functions approximately 40% is required to remain in the field, and a further 20–30% is diverted towards alternative uses. Of the remaining potential (approximately 50 EJ yr^?1 in 2100), more than 90% is available at costs <10By‐products of agricultural and forestry processes, known as residues, may act as a primary source of renewable energy. Studies assessing the availability of this resource offer little insight on the drivers and constraints of the available potential as well as the associated costs and how these may vary across scenarios. This study projects long‐term global supply curves of the available potential using consistent scenarios of agriculture and forestry production, livestock production and fuel use from the spatially explicit integrated assessment model IMAGE. In the projections, residue production is related to agricultural and forestry production and intensification, and the limiting effect of ecological and alternative uses of residues are accounted for. Depending on the scenario, theoretical potential is projected to increase from approximately 120 EJ yr^?1 today to 140–170 EJ yr^?1 by 2100, coming mostly from agricultural production. To maintain ecological functions approximately 40% is required to remain in the field, and a further 20–30% is diverted towards alternative uses. Of the remaining potential (approximately 50 EJ yr^?1 in 2100), more than 90% is available at costs <10$₂₀₀₅ GJ^?1. Crop yield improvements increase residue productivity, albeit at a lower rate. The consequent decrease in agricultural land results in a lower requirement of residues for erosion control. The theoretical potential is most sensitive to baseline projections of agriculture and forestry demand; however, this does not necessarily affect the available potential which is relatively constant across scenarios. The most important limiting factors are the alternative uses. Asia and North America account for two‐thirds of the available potential due to the production of crops with high residue yields and socioeconomic conditions which limit alternative uses.     

Carbon debt repayment or carbon sequestration parity? Lessons from a forest bioenergy case study in Ontario,Canada

Forest bioenergy can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with energy production. We assessed changes in GHG emissions resulting from displacement of coal with wood pellets for the Atikokan Generating Station located in Northwestern Ontario, Canada. Two contrasting biomass sources were considered for continuous wood pellet production: harvest residue from current harvest operations (residue scenario) and fibre from expanded harvest of standing live trees (stemwood scenario). For the stemwood scenario, two metrics were used to assess the effects of displacing coal with forest biomass on GHG emissions: (i) time to carbon sequestration parity, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in regenerating forest equalled the amount of forest carbon without harvest for energy production; and (ii) time to carbon debt repayment, defined as the time from the beginning of harvest to when the combined GHG benefit of displacing coal with biomass and the amount of carbon in the regenerating forest equalled forest carbon at the time of harvest. Only time to carbon sequestration parity was used for the residue scenario. In the residue scenario, carbon sequestration parity was achieved within 1 year. In the stemwood scenario, times to carbon sequestration parity and carbon debt repayment were 91 and 112 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that estimates were robust when parameter values were varied. Modelling experiments showed that increasing growth rates for regenerating stands in the stemwood scenario could substantially reduce time to carbon sequestration parity. We discuss the use of the two metrics (time to carbon sequestration parity and time to carbon debt repayment) for assessing the effects of forest bioenergy projects on GHG emissions and make recommendations on terminology and methodologies for forest bioenergy studies.     

碳税政策对农业土地利用变化及其碳排放的影响

农业生态系统具有碳源和碳汇的双重特征,其在减缓气候变化中的重要性已得到国际社会的广泛认可。相较于技术手段的创新,碳税、补贴等经济手段被认为是较为简单、可行、易出台的碳排放减缓政策。采用气候变化综合评估模型-GOPer-GC模型,构建国际碳税情景,模拟分析了2008年至2050年碳税政策的实施对全球各区域农业土地覆被及土地利用变化碳排放的影响。模拟结果表明,情景2和情景3中全球农业土地利用变化累计碳排放分别达到49.6 GtC和23.1 GtC,明显低于基准情景的累计排放量51.9 GtC。这说明,实施碳税政策后,相较于将碳税收入用作一般性财政收入,将碳税收入补贴至农业部门在一定程度上减缓农业碳排放。此外,林业部门获取更多的碳税补贴时,多数区域农业土地利用变化碳排放规模大幅减少,主因是耕地变为林地、草地变为林地面积的增加。情景3中,中国的碳汇量较其他情景显著增加,主要来自耕地变为林地、草地变为林地,累计碳汇量分别达到1.7和3.7 GtC。因此,对于中国、美国、印度等大部分区域来说,碳税收入更多地补贴至林业部门有利于在整体上减缓农业碳排放,而欧盟、日本、东亚、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、东欧地区,碳税收入平均补贴至种植业、畜牧业和林业反而具有相对更好的减排效果。     

Biomass carbon stocks in China’s forests between 2000 and 2050: A prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships

China’s forests are characterized by young forest age, low carbon density and a large area of planted forests, and thus have high potential to act as carbon sinks in the future. Using China’s national forest inventory data during 1994–1998 and 1999–2003, and direct field measurements, we investigated the relationships between forest biomass density and forest age for 36 major forest types. Statistical approaches and the predicted future forest area from the national forestry development plan were applied to estimate the potential of forest biomass carbon storage in China during 2000–2050. Under an assumption of continuous natural forest growth, China’s existing forest biomass carbon (C) stock would increase from 5.86 Pg C (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g) in 1999–2003 to 10.23 Pg C in 2050, resulting in a total increase of 4.37 Pg C. Newly planted forests through afforestation and reforestation will sequestrate an additional 2.86 Pg C in biomass. Overall, China’s forests will potentially act as a carbon sink for 7.23 Pg C during the period 2000–2050, with an average carbon sink of 0.14 Pg C yr⁻¹. This suggests that China’s forests will be a significant carbon sink in the next 50 years.     

A reassessment of global bioenergy potential in 2050

Many climate change mitigation strategies rely on strong projected growth in biomass energy, supported by literature estimating high future bioenergy potential. However, expectations to 2050 are highly divergent. Examining the most widely cited studies finds that some assumptions in these models are inconsistent with the best available evidence. By identifying literature‐supported, up‐to‐date assumptions for parameters including crop yields, land availability, and costs, we revise upper‐end estimates of potential biomass availability from dedicated energy crops. Even allowing for the conversion of virtually all ‘unused’ grassland and savannah, we find that the maximum plausible limit to sustainable energy crop production in 2050 would be 40–110 EJ yr^?1. Combined with forestry, crop residues, and wastes, the maximum limit to long‐term total biomass availability is 60–120 EJ yr^?1 in primary energy. After accounting for current trends in bioenergy allocation and conversion losses, we estimate maximum potentials of 10–20 EJ yr^?1 of biofuel, 20–40 EJ yr^?1 of electricity, and 10–30 EJ yr^?1 of heating in 2050. These findings suggest that many technical projections and aspirational goals for future bioenergy use could be difficult or impossible to achieve sustainably.     

采伐对豫西退耕还林工程固碳的影响

以豫西退耕还林工程重点县嵩县为研究对象,收集了嵩县2002—2010年退耕还林工程逐年实施的造林面积、树种等数据,利用合适的人工林蓄积量生长方程和和中国退耕还林后的土壤有机碳变化的研究结果,结合各树种的木材密度、生物量扩展因子、碳含量等参数,在采伐和无采伐两种情景模式下对其退耕还林工程在2002—2050年的碳储量及其变化进行估算。结果表明:2010年,工程林总碳储量为0.470 Tg(Tg=10~(12)g),工程实施期间,工程前期碳储量高于后期;土壤有机碳库在2002—2010年期间年固碳量均为负值,表现为碳排放,2011年后土壤年固碳量开始增加;在两种情境模式下,工程林年固碳量最高峰都在2015年,2033年以后采伐情景的年固碳量大于无采伐情景。预计到2020、2030、2040和2050年,嵩县退耕还林工程在无采伐情境下的固碳增汇潜力分别为0.760、1.464、1.852和1.985 Tg,在采伐情景下的固碳增汇潜力分别为0.760、1.240、1.657和2.000 Tg,从长时间来看,豫西退耕还林工程林在采伐情景下具有较大的碳汇潜力,因此,对退耕还林工程林实施适度的采伐可以提高工程的碳汇能力。     

Biomass potential from agricultural residues for energy utilization in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), Indonesia

The West Nusa Tenggara (WNT) province is one of the regions that contribute the most to the production of rice, corn, and cacao. The residues of these crops increase as production increases. The potential availability of the residue was calculated on the basis of the amount of agricultural product and the availability of unutilized residues. The estimated potential energy and collected data were processed and combined with converted factors, such as the yield per hectare and the calorific value, taking into account another purpose, the use of domestic residues for animal feed. Paddy straw, corn straw, and corn cobs had the highest percentage of residue availabilities, 85.91%, 82.26%, and 88.25%, respectively. In addition, the WNT regency has a rich diversity of agricultural residues from superior commodities such as rice, corn, coffee, coconut and cacao. The calculation of the total heating value (THV) of the agricultural residue available reached up to 42.4 PJ. Furthermore, the use of biomass for bioenergy resources is promising, particularly for the WNT region, with the potential for unused agricultural residues. The dependence on unsustainable energy, such as coal and fossil fuel, can be reduced by deploying and developing energy production from biomass use. Therefore, the potential for bioenergy generation and the availability of biomass can be developed for sustainable agriculture and energy management.     

Net change in carbon emissions with increased wood energy use in the United States

Use of wood biomass for energy results in carbon (C) emissions at the time of burning and alters C stocks on the land because of harvest, regrowth, and changes in land use or management. This study evaluates the potential effects of expanded woody biomass energy use (for heat and power) on net C emissions over time. A scenario with increased wood energy use is compared with a dynamic business-as-usual scenario where wood energy use is driven by its historical relationship with gross domestic product. At the national level, we projected that up to 78% of increased cumulative C emissions from increased wood burning and up to 80% of increased cumulative radiative forcing would be offset over 50 years by change in forest area loss, biomass regrowth on land, C storage in harvested wood products, and C in logging slash left in forests. For example, forest area is projected to decline in both scenarios, but 3.5 million hectares more are retained in the high wood energy-use case. Projected C offsets over a 50 year period differed substantially by US region (16% in the North, 50% in the West, and 95% in the South) not only because of differences in forest regrowth and induced investment in retaining and planting forest, but also because of shifts in competitive advantage among regions in producing various wood products. If wood systems displace coal systems that have 75% of the C emissions of wood energy systems per unit energy, then the nationwide net C emissions offset would be reduced to 71–74%. If displacing natural gas systems that have 40% of the level of wood bioenergy emissions per unit energy, the nationwide net C emissions offset would be 46–52%.     

Simulated impact of the renewable fuels standard on US Conservation Reserve Program enrollment and conversion

A socioeconomic model is used to estimate the land‐use implications on the U.S. Conservation Reserve Program from potential increases in second‐generation biofuel production. A baseline scenario with no second‐generation biofuel production is compared to a scenario where the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) volumes are met by 2022. We allow for the possibility of converting expiring CRP lands to alternative uses such as conventional crops, dedicated second‐generation biofuel crops, or harvesting existing CRP grasses for biomass. Results indicate that RFS2 volumes (RFS2‐v) can be met primarily with crop residues (78% of feedstock demand) and woody residues (19% of feedstock demand) compared with dedicated biomass (3% of feedstock demand), with only minimal conversion of cropland (0.27 million hectares, <1% of total cropland), pastureland (0.28 million hectares of pastureland, <1% of total pastureland), and CRP lands (0.29 million hectares of CRP lands, 3% of existing CRP lands) to biomass production. Meeting RFS2 volumes would reduce CRP re‐enrollment by 0.19 million hectares, or 4%, below the baseline scenario where RFS2 is not met. Yet under RFS2‐v scenario, expiring CRP lands are more likely to be converted to or maintain perennial cover, with 1.78 million hectares of CRP lands converting to hay production, and 0.29 million hectares being harvested for existing grasses. A small amount of CRP is harvested for existing biomass, but no conversion of CRP to dedicated biomass crops, such as switchgrass, are projected to occur. Although less land is enrolled in CRP under RFS2‐v scenario, total land in perennial cover increases by 0.15 million hectares, or 2%, under RFS2‐v. Sensitivity to yield, payment and residue retention assumptions are evaluated.     

Future energy potential of Miscanthus in Europe

European field experiments have demonstrated Miscanthus can produce some of the highest energy yields per hectare of all potential energy crops. Previous modelling studies using MISCANMOD have calculated the potential energy yield for the EU27 from mean historical climate data (1960–1990). In this paper, we have built on the previous studies by further developing a new Miscanthus crop growth model MISCANFOR in order to analyse (i) interannual variation in yields for past and future climates, (ii) genotype-specific parameters on yield in Europe. Under recent climatic conditions (1960–1990) we show that 10% of arable land could produce 1709 PJ and mitigate 30 Tg of carbon dioxide-carbon (CO₂-C) equivalent greenhouse gasses (GHGs) compared with EU27 primary energy consumption of 65 598 PJ, emitting 1048 Tg of CO₂-C equivalent GHGs in 2005. If we continue to use the clone Miscanthus × giganteus , MISCANFOR shows that, as climate change reduces in-season water availability, energy production and carbon mitigation could fall 80% by 2080 for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 scenario. However, because Miscanthus is found in a huge range of climates in Asia, we propose that new hybrids will incorporate genes conferring superior drought and frost tolerance. Using parameters from characterized germplasm, we calculate energy production could increase from present levels by 88% (to 2360 PJ) and mitigate 42 Tg of CO₂-C equivalent using 10% arable land for the 2080 mid-range A2 scenario. This is equivalent to 3.6% of 2005 EU27 primary energy consumption and 4.0% of total CO₂ equivalent C GHG emissions.     

How can accelerated development of bioenergy contribute to the future UK energy mix? Insights from a MARKAL modelling exercise

Background  

This work explores the potential contribution of bioenergy technologies to 60% and 80% carbon reductions in the UK energy system by 2050, by outlining the potential for accelerated technological development of bioenergy chains. The investigation was based on insights from MARKAL modelling, detailed literature reviews and expert consultations. Due to the number and complexity of bioenergy pathways and technologies in the model, three chains and two underpinning technologies were selected for detailed investigation: (1) lignocellulosic hydrolysis for the production of bioethanol, (2) gasification technologies for heat and power, (3) fast pyrolysis of biomass for bio-oil production, (4) biotechnological advances for second generation bioenergy crops, and (5) the development of agro-machinery for growing and harvesting bioenergy crops. Detailed literature searches and expert consultations (looking inter alia at research and development needs and economic projections) led to the development of an 'accelerated' dataset of modelling parameters for each of the selected bioenergy pathways, which were included in five different scenario runs with UK-MARKAL (MED). The results of the 'accelerated runs' were compared with a low-carbon (LC-Core) scenario, which assesses the cheapest way to decarbonise the energy sector.     

A quantitative assessment of crop residue feedstocks for biofuel in North and Northeast China

Crop residue resources may affect soil quality, global carbon balance, and stability of crop production, but also contribute to future energy security. This study was performed to evaluate the spatial and temporal variation in residue quantities of field crops in five provinces of North China (NC) and three provinces of Northeast China (NEC). The availability of biomass resources was derived from statistical data on crop yields for all crops on the provincial and even county level. We found that cereals – wheat, maize, and rice – were the biggest resource of crop residue feedstock. The ranking of these crops as a source of biomass for bioenergy is determined by the acreage in each region and the crop‐specific yield. Annually, the average amount of total residue of 83.0 Mt (Mt = Mega tonnes) in NC (16.9 Million ha) comprised 76.6 Mt field residues and 6.4 Mt process residues on an air‐dried basis. The average amount of total biomass residue of 105.7 Mt in NEC (19.8 Million ha) comprised 92.8 Mt field residues and 12.9 Mt process residues. Averaged for 2008, 2009, and 2010, the total standard coal equivalent (SCE) in NC amounted to 46.4 Mt, which comprised 42.4 Mt field residues and of 3.9 Mt process residues. In NEC, the SCE value of 57.0 Mt comprised 49.7 Mt field residues and 7.4 Mt process residues. The temporal availability of field residues was mainly concentrated in the period between July and September, followed by the period between October and December. In the period between July and September, the amount of field residue available amounted to 40.9 and 53.1 Mt in NC and NEC, respectively. An accurate assessment of field residues may guide policy makers and industry to optimize the utilization of the crop residue resource.     

Bioenergy futures in Sweden – system effects of CO2 reduction and fossil fuel phase‐out policies

Bioenergy could contribute both to the reduction of greenhouse gases and to increased energy security, but the extent of this contribution strongly depends on the cost and potential of biomass resources. For Sweden, this study investigates how the implementation of policies for CO₂ reduction and for phase out of fossil fuels in road transport affect the future utilization of biomass, in the stationary energy system and in the transport sector, and its price. The analysis is based on the bottom‐up, optimization MARKAL_Sweden model, which includes a comprehensive representation of the national energy system. For the analysis, the biomass supply representation of MARKAL_Sweden is updated and improved by the use of, e.g., forestry forecasting modeling and through construction of detailed biomass supply curves. A time horizon up to 2050 is applied. The results indicate a potential for significantly higher use of bioenergy. In the main analysis scenario, in which CO₂ reduction of 80% by 2050 is imposed on the Swedish energy system, the total bioenergy utilization increases by 63% by 2050 compared to 2010. The largest increase occurs in the transport sector, which by 2050 accounts for 43% of the total primary bioenergy use. The high demand and strong competition significantly increase biomass prices and lead to the utilization of higher cost biomass sources such as stumps and cultivated energy forest, as well as use of pulpwood resources for energy purposes.     

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4 °C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2 °C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.     

Bioenergy production potential of global biomass plantations under environmental and agricultural constraints

We estimate the global bioenergy potential from dedicated biomass plantations in the 21st century under a range of sustainability requirements to safeguard food production, biodiversity and terrestrial carbon storage. We use a process‐based model of the land biosphere to simulate rainfed and irrigated biomass yields driven by data from different climate models and combine these simulations with a scenario‐based assessment of future land availability for energy crops. The resulting spatial patterns of large‐scale lignocellulosic energy crop cultivation are then investigated with regard to their impacts on land and water resources. Calculated bioenergy potentials are in the lower range of previous assessments but the combination of all biomass sources may still provide between 130 and 270 EJ yr^?1 in 2050, equivalent to 15–25% of the World's future energy demand. Energy crops account for 20–60% of the total potential depending on land availability and share of irrigated area. However, a full exploitation of these potentials will further increase the pressure on natural ecosystems with a doubling of current land use change and irrigation water demand. Despite the consideration of sustainability constraints on future agricultural expansion the large‐scale cultivation of energy crops is a threat to many areas that have already been fragmented and degraded, are rich in biodiversity and provide habitat for many endangered and endemic species.     

Forest bioenergy climate impact can be improved by allocating forest residue removal

Bioenergy from forest residues can be used to avoid fossil carbon emissions, but removing biomass from forests reduces carbon stock sizes and carbon input to litter and soil. The magnitude and longevity of these carbon stock changes determine how effective measures to utilize bioenergy from forest residues are to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector and to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimate the variability of GHG emissions and consequent climate impacts resulting from producing bioenergy from stumps, branches and residual biomass of forest thinning operations in Finland, and the contribution of the variability in key factors, i.e. forest residue diameter, tree species, geographical location of the forest biomass removal site and harvesting method, to the emissions and their climate impact. The GHG emissions and the consequent climate impacts estimated as changes in radiative forcing were comparable to fossil fuels when bioenergy production from forest residues was initiated. The emissions and climate impacts decreased over time because forest residues were predicted to decompose releasing CO₂ even if left in the forest. Both were mainly affected by forest residue diameter and climatic conditions of the forest residue collection site. Tree species and the harvest method of thinning wood (whole tree or stem‐only) had a smaller effect on the magnitude of emissions. The largest reduction in the energy production climate impacts after 20 years, up to 62%, was achieved when coal was replaced by the branches collected from Southern Finland, whereas the smallest reduction 7% was gained by using stumps from Northern Finland instead of natural gas. After 100 years the corresponding values were 77% and 21%. The choice of forest residue biomass collected affects significantly the emissions and climate impacts of forest bioenergy.     

Renewable jet fuel supply scenarios in the European Union in 2021–2030 in the context of proposed biofuel policy and competing biomass demand

This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO₂‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.     

Biomass production in plantations: Land constraints increase dependency on irrigation water

Integrated assessment model scenarios project rising deployment of biomass‐using energy systems in climate change mitigation scenarios. But there is concern that bioenergy deployment will increase competition for land and water resources and obstruct objectives such as nature protection, the preservation of carbon‐rich ecosystems, and food security. To study the relative importance of water and land availability as biophysical constraints to bioenergy deployment at a global scale, we use a process‐detailed, spatially explicit biosphere model to simulate rain‐fed and irrigated biomass plantation supply along with the corresponding water consumption for different scenarios concerning availability of land and water resources. We find that global plantation supplies are mainly limited by land availability and only secondarily by freshwater availability. As a theoretical upper limit, if all suitable lands on Earth, besides land currently used in agriculture, were available for bioenergy plantations (“Food first” scenario), total plantation supply would be in the range 2,010–2,300 EJ/year depending on water availability and use. Excluding all currently protected areas reduces the supply by 60%. Excluding also areas where conversion to biomass plantations causes carbon emissions that might be considered unacceptably high will reduce the total plantation supply further. For example, excluding all areas where soil and vegetation carbon stocks exceed 150 tC/ha (“Carbon threshold savanna” scenario) reduces the supply to 170–290 EJ/year. With decreasing land availability, the amount of water available for irrigation becomes vitally important. In the least restrictive land availability scenario (“Food first”), up to 77% of global plantation biomass supply is obtained without additional irrigation. This share is reduced to 31% for the most restrictive “Carbon threshold savanna” scenario. The results highlight the critical—and geographically varying—importance of co‐managing land and water resources if substantial contributions of bioenergy are to be reached in mitigation portfolios.     

Abrupt changes in Great Britain vegetation carbon projected under climate change

Past abrupt ‘regime shifts’ have been observed in a range of ecosystems due to various forcing factors. Large‐scale abrupt shifts are projected for some terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, particularly in tropical and high‐latitude regions. However, there is very little high‐resolution modelling of smaller‐scale future projected abrupt shifts in ecosystems, and relatively less focus on the potential for abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we show that numerous climate‐driven abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon are projected in a high‐resolution model of Great Britain's land surface driven by two different climate change scenarios. In each scenario, the effects of climate and CO₂ combined are isolated from the effects of climate change alone. We use a new algorithm to detect and classify abrupt shifts in model time series, assessing the sign and strength of the non‐linear responses. The abrupt ecosystem changes projected are non‐linear responses to climate change, not simply driven by abrupt shifts in climate. Depending on the scenario, 374–1,144 grid cells of 1.5 km × 1.5 km each, comprising 0.5%–1.5% of Great Britain's land area show abrupt shifts in vegetation carbon. We find that abrupt ecosystem shifts associated with increases (rather than decreases) in vegetation carbon, show the greatest potential for early warning signals (rising autocorrelation and variance beforehand). In one scenario, 89% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon show increasing autocorrelation and variance beforehand. Across the scenarios, 81% of abrupt increases in vegetation carbon have increasing autocorrelation and 74% increasing variance beforehand, whereas for decreases in vegetation carbon these figures are 56% and 47% respectively. Our results should not be taken as specific spatial or temporal predictions of abrupt ecosystem change. However, they serve to illustrate that numerous abrupt shifts in temperate terrestrial ecosystems could occur in a changing climate, with some early warning signals detectable beforehand.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.