Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate‐change‐related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community‐level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold‐adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm‐adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool‐adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm‐adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold‐adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food‐web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.     

Predicting the likely response of data‐poor ecosystems to climate change using space‐for‐time substitution across domains

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data‐poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data‐poor ecosystems based on a space‐for‐time substitution, using distant, well‐studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate‐ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains – to investigate ecological response to climate change – allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long‐term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data‐poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.     

Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries

Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters (subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted (negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence (in aquatic organisms and humans) are also affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions.     

Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change

Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.     

Conserving species‐rich predator assemblages strengthens natural pest control in a climate warming context

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Testing the match–mismatch hypothesis in bighorn sheep in the context of climate change

In species with long gestation, females commit to reproduction several months before parturition. If cues driving conception date are uncoupled from spring conditions, parturition could be mistimed. Mismatch may increase with global change if the rate of temporal changes in autumn cues differs from the rate of change in spring conditions. Using 17 years of data on climate and vegetation phenology, we show that autumn temperature and precipitation, but not vegetation phenology, explain parturition date in bighorn sheep. Although autumn cues drive the timing of conception, they do not predict conditions at parturition in spring. We calculated the mismatch between individual parturition date and spring green-up, assessed whether mismatch increased over time and investigated the consequences of mismatch on lamb neonatal survival, weaning mass and overwinter survival. Mismatch fluctuated over time but showed no temporal trend. Temporal changes in green-up date did not lead to major fitness consequence of mismatch. Detailed data on individually marked animals revealed no effect of mismatch on neonatal or overwinter survival, but lamb weaning mass was negatively affected by mismatch. Capital breeders might be less sensitive to mismatch than income breeders because they are less dependent on daily food acquisition. Herbivores in seasonal environments may access sufficient forage to sustain lactation before or after the spring ‘peak’ green-up, and partly mitigate the consequences of a mismatch. Thus, the effect of phenological mismatch on fitness may be affected by species life history, highlighting the complexity in quantifying trophic mismatches in the context of climate change.     

Modelling the potential impact of climate variability and change on species regeneration potential in the temperate forests of South‐Eastern Australia

The sensitivity of early plant regeneration to environmental change makes regeneration a critical stage for understanding species response to climate change. We investigated the spatial and temporal response of eucalypt trees in the Central Highland region of south eastern Australia to high and low climate change scenarios. We developed a novel mechanistic model incorporating germination processes, TACA‐GEM, to evaluate establishment probabilities of five key eucalypt species, Eucalyptus pauciflora, Eucalyptus delegatensis, Eucalyptus regnans, Eucalyptus nitens and Eucalyptus obliqua. Changes to regeneration potential at landscape and site levels were calculated to determine climate thresholds. Model results demonstrated that climate change is likely to impact plant regeneration. We observed increases and decreases in regeneration potential depending on the ecosystem, indicating that some species will increase in abundance in some forest types, whilst other forest types will become inhabitable. In general, the dry forest ecosystems were most impacted, whilst the wet forests were least impacted. We also observed that species with seed dormancy mechanisms, like E. pauciflora and E. delegatensis, are likely to be at higher risk than those without. Landscape‐ and site‐level analysis revealed heterogeneity in species response at different scales. On a landscape scale, a 4.3 °C mean temperature increase and 22% decline in precipitation (predicted for 2080) is predicted to be a threshold for large spatial shifts in species regeneration niches across the study region, while a 2.6 °C increase and 15% decline in precipitation (predicted for 2050) will likely result in local site‐level shifts. Site‐level analysis showed that considerable declines in regeneration potential for E. delegatensis, E. pauciflora and E. nitens were modelled to occur in some ecosystems by 2050. While overall model performance and accuracy was good, better understanding of effects from extreme events and other underlying processes on regeneration will improve modelling and development of species conservation strategies.     

Marine species in ambient low‐oxygen regions subject to double jeopardy impacts of climate change

We have learned much about the impacts of warming on the productivity and distribution of marine organisms, but less about the impact of warming combined with other environmental stressors, including oxygen depletion. Also, the combined impact of multiple environmental stressors requires evaluation at the scales most relevant to resource managers. We use the Gulf of St. Lawrence, Canada, characterized by a large permanently hypoxic zone, as a case study. Species distribution models were used to predict the impact of multiple scenarios of warming and oxygen depletion on the local density of three commercially and ecologically important species. Substantial changes are projected within 20–40 years. A eurythermal depleted species already limited to shallow, oxygen‐rich refuge habitat (Atlantic cod) may be relatively uninfluenced by oxygen depletion but increase in density within refuge areas with warming. A more stenothermal, deep‐dwelling species (Greenland halibut) is projected to lose ~55% of its high‐density areas under the combined impacts of warming and oxygen depletion. Another deep‐dwelling, more eurythermal species (Northern shrimp) would lose ~4% of its high‐density areas due to oxygen depletion alone, but these impacts may be buffered by warming, which may increase density by 8% in less hypoxic areas, but decrease density by ~20% in the warmest parts of the region. Due to local climate variability and extreme events, and that our models cannot project changes in species sensitivity to hypoxia with warming, our results should be considered conservative. We present an approach to effectively evaluate the individual and cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on a species‐by‐species basis at the scales most relevant to managers. Our study may provide a basis for work in other low‐oxygen regions and should contribute to a growing literature base in climate science, which will continue to be of support for resource managers as climate change accelerates.     

Host–parasite interactions and vectors in the barn swallow in relation to climate change

Recent climate change has affected the phenology of numerous species, and such differential changes may affect host–parasite interactions. Using information on vectors (louseflies, mosquitoes, blackflies) and parasites (tropical fowl mite Ornithonyssus bursa, the lousefly Ornithomyia avicularia, a chewing louse Brueelia sp., two species of feather mites Trouessartia crucifera and Trouessartia appendiculata, and two species of blood parasites Leucozytozoon whitworthi and Haemoproteus prognei) of the barn swallow Hirundo rustica collected during 1971–2008, I analyzed temporal changes in emergence and abundance, relationships with climatic conditions, and changes in the fitness impact of parasites on their hosts. Temperature and rainfall during the summer breeding season of the host increased during the study. The intensity of infestation by mites decreased, but increased for the lousefly during 1982–2008. The prevalence of two species of blood parasites increased during 1988–2008. The timing of first mass emergence of mosquitoes and blackflies advanced. These temporal changes in phenology and abundance of parasites and vectors could be linked to changes in temperature, but less so to changes in precipitation. Parasites had fitness consequences for hosts because intensity of the mite and the chewing louse was significantly associated with delayed breeding of the host, while a greater abundance of feather mites was associated with earlier breeding. Reproductive success of the host decreased with increasing abundance of the chewing louse. The temporal decrease in mite abundance was associated with advanced breeding of the host, while the increase in abundance of the lousefly was associated with earlier breeding. Virulence by the tropical fowl mite decreased with increasing temperature, independent of confounding factors. These findings suggest that climate change affects parasite species differently, hence altering the composition of the parasite community, and that climate change causes changes in the virulence of parasites. Because the changing phenology of different species of parasites had both positive and negative effects on their hosts, and because the abundance of some parasites increased, while that of other decreased, there was no consistent temporal change in host fitness during 1971–2008.     

Are large‐scale distributional shifts of the blue‐winged macaw (Primolius maracana) related to climate change?

Aim To evaluate whether observed geographical shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw (Primolius maracana) are related to ongoing processes of global climate change. This species is vulnerable to extinction and has shown striking range retractions in recent decades, withdrawing broadly from southern portions of its historical distribution. Its range reduction has generally been attributed to the effects of habitat loss; however, as this species has also disappeared from large forested areas, consideration of other factors that may act in concert is merited. Location Historical distribution of the blue‐winged macaw in Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northern Argentina. Methods We used a correlative approach to test a hypothesis of causation of observed shifts by reduction of habitable areas mediated by climate change. We developed models of the ecological niche requirements of the blue‐winged macaw, based on point‐occurrence data and climate scenarios for pre‐1950 and post‐1950 periods, and tested model predictivity for anticipating geographical distributions within time periods. Then we projected each model to the other time period and compared distributions predicted under both climate scenarios to assess shifts of habitable areas across decades and to evaluate an explanation for observed range retractions. Results Differences between predicted distributions of the blue‐winged macaw over the twentieth century were, in general, minor and no change in suitability of landscapes was predicted across large areas of the species’ original range in different time periods. No tendency towards range retraction in the south was predicted, rather conditions in the southern part of the species’ range tended to show improvement for the species. Main conclusions Our test permitted elimination of climate change as a likely explanation for the observed shifts in the distribution of the blue‐winged macaw, and points rather to other causal explanations (e.g. changing regional land use, emerging diseases).     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展

近百年来,全球气候系统正经历着以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。研究海岸带系统对气候变化的响应机制,评估气候变化对海岸带社会、经济和生态的潜在影响,提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带系统安全的重要前提。回顾了IPCC的四次评估报告,分析了全球气候变化对海岸带的影响。总结了海岸带脆弱性评估框架以及脆弱性评价指标体系,综述了国内外气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究的进展。在综述国内外该领域研究进展的基础上,展望了气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究。全球气候变化及其对海岸带的影响还有大量的科学技术问题需要进一步探讨,同时也需要对各种适应气候变化措施的可行性和有效性进行研究和验证。     

Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change

We used 179 tree ring chronologies of Douglas‐fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] from the International Tree‐Ring Data Bank to study radial growth response to historical climate variability. For the coastal variety of Douglas‐fir, we found positive correlations of ring width with summer precipitation and temperature of the preceding winter, indicating that growth of coastal populations was limited by summer dryness and that photosynthesis in winter contributed to growth. For the interior variety, low precipitation and high growing season temperatures limited growth. Based on these relationships, we chose a simple heat moisture index (growing season temperature divided by precipitation of the preceding winter and current growing season) to predict growth response for the interior variety. For 105 tree ring chronologies or 81% of the interior samples, we found significant linear correlations with this heat moisture index, and moving correlation functions showed that the response was stable over time (1901–1980). We proceeded to use those relationships to predict regional growth response under 18 climate change scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with unexpected results: for comparable changes in heat moisture index, the most southern and outlying populations of Douglas‐fir in Mexico showed the least reduction in productivity. Moderate growth reductions were found in the southern United States, and strongly negative response in the central Rocky Mountains. Growth reductions were further more pronounced for high than for low elevation populations. Based on regional differences in the slope of the growth–climate relationship, we propose that southern populations are better adapted to drought conditions and could therefore contain valuable genotypes for reforestation under climate change. The results support the view that climate change may impact species not just at the trailing edges but throughout their range due to genetic adaptation of populations to local environments.     

Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules

Patterns of ecotypic variation constitute some of the few 'rules' known to modern biology. Here, we examine several well-known ecogeographical rules, especially those pertaining to body size in contemporary, historical and fossil taxa. We review the evidence showing that rules of geographical variation in response to variation in the local environment can also apply to morphological changes through time in response to climate change. These rules hold at various time scales, ranging from contemporary to geological time scales. Patterns of body size variation in response to climate change at the individual species level may also be detected at the community level. The patterns underlying ecotypic variation are complex and highly context-dependent, reducing the 'predictive-power' of ecogeographical rules. This is especially true when considering the increasing impact of human activities on the environment. Nonetheless, ecogeographical rules may help interpret the likely influences of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems. Global climate change has already influenced the body size of several contemporary species, and will likely have an even greater impact on animal communities in the future. For this reason, we highlight and emphasise the importance of museum specimens and the continued need for documenting the earth's biological diversity.     

Eco‐evolution on the edge during climate change

We urgently need to predict species responses to climate change to minimize future biodiversity loss and ensure we do not waste limited resources on ineffective conservation strategies. Currently, most predictions of species responses to climate change ignore the potential for evolution. However, evolution can alter species ecological responses, and different aspects of evolution and ecology can interact to produce complex eco‐evolutionary dynamics under climate change. Here we review how evolution could alter ecological responses to climate change on species warm and cool range margins, where evolution could be especially important. We discuss different aspects of evolution in isolation, and then synthesize results to consider how multiple evolutionary processes might interact and affect conservation strategies. On species cool range margins, the evolution of dispersal could increase range expansion rates and allow species to adapt to novel conditions in their new range. However, low genetic variation and genetic drift in small range‐front populations could also slow or halt range expansions. Together, these eco‐evolutionary effects could cause a three‐step, stop‐and‐go expansion pattern for many species. On warm range margins, isolation among populations could maintain high genetic variation that facilitates evolution to novel climates and allows species to persist longer than expected without evolution. This ‘evolutionary extinction debt’ could then prevent other species from shifting their ranges. However, as climate change increases isolation among populations, increasing dispersal mortality could select for decreased dispersal and cause rapid range contractions. Some of these eco‐evolutionary dynamics could explain why many species are not responding to climate change as predicted. We conclude by suggesting that resurveying historical studies that measured trait frequencies, the strength of selection, or heritabilities could be an efficient way to increase our eco‐evolutionary knowledge in climate change biology.     

Modelling changes in VOC emission in response to climate change in the continental United States

The alteration of climate is driven not only by anthropogenic activities, but also by biosphere processes that change in conjunction with climate. Emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from vegetation may be particularly sensitive to changes in climate and may play an important role in climate forcing through their influence on the atmospheric oxidative balance, greenhouse gas concentration, and the formation of aerosols. Using the VEMAP vegetation database and associated vegetation responses to climate change, this study examined the independent and combined effects of simulated changes in temperature, CO₂ concentration, and vegetation distribution on annual emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, and other reactive VOCs (ORVOCs) from potential vegetation of the continental United States. Temperature effects were modelled according to the direct influence of temperature on enzymatic isoprene production and the vapour pressure of monoterpenes and ORVOCs. The effect of elevated CO₂ concentration was modelled according to increases in foliar biomass per unit of emitting surface area. The effects of vegetation distribution reflects simulated changes in species spatial distribution and areal coverage by 21 different vegetation classes. Simulated climate warming associated with a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration enhanced total modelled VOC emission by 81.8% (isoprene + 82.1%, monoterpenes + 81.6%, ORVOC + 81.1%), whereas a simulated doubled CO₂ alone enhanced total modelled VOC emission by only + 11.8% (isoprene + 13.7%, monoterpenes + 4.1%, ORVOC + 11.7%). A simulated redistribution of vegetation in response to altered temperatures and precipitation patterns caused total modelled VOC emission to decline by 10.4% (isoprene – 11.7%, monoterpenes – 18.6%, ORVOC 0.0%) driven by a decline in area covered by vegetation classes emitting VOCs at high rates. Thus, the positive effect of leaf-level adjustments to elevated CO₂ (i.e. increases in foliar biomass) is balanced by the negative effect of ecosystem-level adjustments to climate (i.e. decreases in areal coverage of species emitting VOC at high rates).     

Implications of CO2 fertilization for future climate change in a coupled climate–carbon model

The terrestrial carbon cycle plays a critical role in determining levels of atmospheric CO₂ that result from anthropogenic carbon emissions. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ is thought to stimulate terrestrial carbon uptake, through the process of CO₂ fertilization of vegetation productivity. This negative carbon cycle feedback results in reduced atmospheric CO₂ growth, and has likely accounted for a substantial portion of the historical terrestrial carbon sink. However, the future strength of CO₂ fertilization in response to continued carbon emissions and atmospheric CO₂ rise is highly uncertain. In this paper, the ramifications of CO₂ fertilization in simulations of future climate change are explored, using an intermediate complexity coupled climate–carbon model. It is shown that the absence of future CO₂ fertilization results in substantially higher future CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, as this removes the dominant contributor to future terrestrial carbon uptake in the model. As a result, climate changes are larger, though the radiative effect of higher CO₂ on surface temperatures in the model is offset by about 30% due to reduced positive dynamic vegetation feedbacks; that is, the removal of CO₂ fertilization results in less vegetation expansion in the model, which would otherwise constitute an important positive surface albedo‐temperature feedback. However, the effect of larger climate changes has other important implications for the carbon cycle – notably to further weaken remaining carbon sinks in the model. As a result, positive climate–carbon cycle feedbacks are larger when CO₂ fertilization is absent. This creates an interesting synergism of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, whereby positive (climate–carbon cycle) feedbacks are amplified when a negative (CO₂ fertilization) feedback is removed.