Panel estimation for the impacts of population-related factors on CO2 emissions: A regional analysis in China

A large accumulation of carbon dioxide emission have attracted much attention recently. The existing researches mainly focused on such impact factors of carbon dioxide emission as population, economy, technology and others. However, there is little specific guidance for the subdivision of demographic factors. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model to examine the impact of population size, per capita consumption, energy intensity, urbanization and aging population on CO₂ emissions by adopting panel data of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2012. Taking the climate change as a control variable, we can get the result that the population size, per capita consumption and energy intensity have strong explanatory power on CO₂ emissions in the three regions. The urbanization level has a positive influence on carbon emissions in the western region and has a negative effect in the central region, while it is not statistically significant in the eastern region. Aging population increases emissions in the eastern region, while decreases emissions in the central region and the western region.     

我国城市发展与能源碳排放关系的面板数据分析

城市化与城市能耗及其碳排放密切相关,城市发展过程中的人口城市化进程和产业总量与结构调整都是能源碳排放变化的主要驱动因素。以2006-2015年全国158个地级城市的面板数据为基础,从总量变化趋势和空间变化趋势两个角度分析了研究期内的我国城市发展特征及能源碳排放特征;并利用面板计量分析方法研究了城市发展因素对城市总能耗、总能耗碳排放、单位能耗碳排放量的驱动特征。结果表明：城市化每提升0.095%,总能耗上升1%。虽然城市总能耗及能耗碳排放在降低,但是单位能耗碳排放在增加;第二产业和第三产业发展对总能耗及能耗碳排放的驱动作用大;城市第三产业的发展有利于能源结构优化调整等;并基于研究发现给出一些政策建议。     

Life Cycle Assessment of Novel Aircraft Interior Panels Made from Renewable or Recyclable Polymers with Natural Fiber Reinforcements and Non‐Halogenated Flame Retardants

A comprehensive life cycle assessment of panels for aircraft interiors was conducted, including both a conventional glass fiber‐reinforced panel and different novel sustainable panels. The conventional panel is made of a glass fiber‐reinforced thermoset composite with halogenated flame retardant, whereas the sustainable panels are made of renewable or recyclable polymers, natural fiber reinforcements, and nonhalogenated flame retardants. Four different sustainable panels were investigated: a geopolymer‐based panel; a linseed‐oil–based biopolymer panel; and two thermoplastic panels, one with polypropylene (PP) and another with polylactic acid (PLA). All of the sustainable panels were developed to fulfil fire resistance requirements and to be lighter than the conventional panels in order to reduce fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions from the aircraft. The environmental impacts associated with energy consumption and air emissions were assessed, as well as other environmental impacts resulting from the extraction and processing of materials, transportation of materials and waste, panel manufacturing, use, maintenance, and end of life (EoL). All the sustainable panels showed better environmental performance than the conventional panel. The overall impacts of the sustainable panels were offset by the environmental benefits in the use stage attributed to weight reduction. One square meter of the novel panels could save to 6,000 kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalents. The break‐even point (in months) at which the use of sustainable panels would yield an environmental benefit relative to the impacts arising in production and EoL was as follows: 1.2 for the geopolymer panel; 1.7 for the biopolymer panel; 10.4 for the PLA panel; and 54.5 for the PP panel.     

A perspective: Photosynthetic production of fatty acid-based biofuels in genetically engineered cyanobacteria

Biofuels are expected to play a key role in the development of a sustainable, economical and environmentally safe source of energy. Microbes offer great potential for applications in technology based biofuel production. Three fundamental questions need to be addressed in order for the development of microbial synthesis of biofuels to be successful. Firstly, what energy resource platform could be used to make biofuels. Secondly, what type of biofuel is the ideal fuel molecule that should be targeted. Finally, what microbial system could be used to transform energy resources into the targeted biofuel molecules. In this perspective, the potential of using photosynthetic microbes (cyanobacteria in particular) in the solar energy driven conversion of carbon dioxide to fatty acid-based biofuels is explored.     

Environmental and resource burdens associated with world biofuel production out to 2050: footprint components from carbon emissions and land use to waste arisings and water consumption

Environmental or ‘ecological’ footprints have been widely used in recent years as indicators of resource consumption and waste absorption presented in terms of biologically productive land area [in global hectares (gha)] required per capita with prevailing technology. In contrast, ‘carbon footprints’ are the amount of carbon (or carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions for such activities in units of mass or weight (like kilograms per functional unit), but can be translated into a component of the environmental footprint (on a gha basis). The carbon and environmental footprints associated with the world production of liquid biofuels have been computed for the period 2010–2050. Estimates of future global biofuel production were adopted from the 2011 International Energy Agency (IEA) ‘technology roadmap’ for transport biofuels. This suggests that, although first generation biofuels will dominate the market up to 2020, advanced or second generation biofuels might constitute some 75% of biofuel production by 2050. The overall environmental footprint was estimated to be 0.29 billion (bn) gha in 2010 and is likely to grow to around 2.57 bn gha by 2050. It was then disaggregated into various components: bioproductive land, built land, carbon emissions, embodied energy, materials and waste, transport, and water consumption. This component‐based approach has enabled the examination of the Manufactured and Natural Capital elements of the ‘four capitals’ model of sustainability quite broadly, along with specific issues (such as the linkages associated with the so‐called energy–land–water nexus). Bioproductive land use was found to exhibit the largest footprint component (a 48% share in 2050), followed by the carbon footprint (23%), embodied energy (16%), and then the water footprint (9%). Footprint components related to built land, transport and waste arisings were all found to account for an insignificant proportion to the overall environmental footprint, together amounting to only about 2%     

新疆能源消费碳排放过程及其影响因素——基于扩展的Kaya恒等式

新疆,中国西部的欠发达区域,如何在保持社会经济持续快速发展的同时实现碳排放的减速增长是现阶段的重要发展命题,对于实现国家的减排目标有着至关重要的作用。通过对经典的Kaya恒等式进行扩展,并采用基于LMDI的完全分解模型,解析了1952年—2010年新疆的一次能源消费的碳排放的主要驱动因素。依据1952年以来新疆社会经济发展状况和碳排放总量演变特征,并结合一定的历史背景等,将新疆的一次能源消费的碳排放划分为6个演变阶段,定量分析了人口规模效应、经济产出效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应和能源替代效应在不同发展阶段的贡献作用,主要的研究结论如下:(1)经济产出效应和人口规模效应是新疆碳排放增长的最主要贡献因子。(2)能源强度效应在1978年之前对碳排放的增长表现为正效应,主要原因是极低的能源利用效率和落后的生产工艺。改革开放之后,能源强度效应成为遏制碳排放增长的重要贡献因子。(3)能源结构效应和能源替代效应也是遏制新疆碳排放增长的主要贡献因子,但是其贡献作用还比较小,主要是因为可再生能源在能源消费总量中的比重还比较低和以煤为主的能源消费结构还没有发生根本性的改变。     

Does directed technological change get greener: Empirical evidence from Shanghai's industrial green development transformation

The degree of technological change biased to the environmental factor is crucial to industrial sustainable development. Using the stochastic frontier analysis method based on the translog production function and the panel data of 32 industrial sub-sectors in Shanghai over 1994–2011, this paper combines the evolution dynamic of the frontier technological structure with the evolution dynamic of technological change direction to estimate the output elasticities of production factors and the growth rate of green total factor productivity. Also, we investigate and compare the degrees of technological change biased to four production factors, i.e., capital, labor, energy, and carbon emissions. The results show that the industrial green total factor productivity in Shanghai presents an overall upward trend and mainly depends on the technical efficiency change. The improvements of labor productivity, R&D intensity, and energy efficiency can effectively enhance the green technical efficiency, while capital deepening has a mitigation effect on the green technical efficiency. The technological change of Shanghai's industrial production biases to energy use and capital saving, causing a high energy demand of industrial development. Under the dual impacts of economic development and energy-saving and emission-reduction policies, the degree of technological change biased to the environmental factor (carbon emissions) displays strong and weak alternations, indicating that the green bias of industrial technological change in Shanghai is not stable and that the green transformation of industrial development model needs to be further advanced.     

庐山风景区碳源、碳汇的测度及均衡

旅游目的地系统碳源、碳汇的计算与分析,不仅是旅游业节能减排政策制定的重要依据,也是旅游与环境相互关系研究的一个新的科学命题.以庐山风景区为例,计算并分析了2010年的碳源及碳汇.结果表明:(1)2010年庐山风景区包括本地居民和旅游者的总碳排放为108 697 t.其中,本地居民占碳排放总量的19.52％,旅游者占碳排放总量的80.48％.在旅游者碳排放中,旅游交通碳排放占50.24％,旅游住宿碳排放占38.04％,旅游食物消费碳排放占10.65％,旅游活动碳排放仅占1.07％;(2)2010年庐山风景区内陆地生态系统碳吸收为9447 t;(3)从碳源、碳汇均衡角度看,庐山陆地生态系统的固碳量吸收了区内碳排放的23.47％.但由于旅游者的区际流动和旅游业的产业关联性强,陆地生态系统的碳吸收仅占区内和区外碳排放总量的8.69％,旅游业使庐山成为一个显著的碳源.     

Sustainability of forest bioenergy in Europe: land-use-related carbon dioxide emissions of forest harvest residues

Increasing bioenergy production from forest harvest residues decreases litter input to the soil and can thus reduce the carbon stock and sink of forests. This effect may negate greenhouse gas savings obtained by using bioenergy. We used a spatially explicit modelling framework to assess the reduction in the forest litter and soil carbon stocks across Europe, assuming that a sustainable potential of bioenergy from forest harvest residues is taken into use. The forest harvest residue removal reduced the carbon stocks of litter and soil on average by 3% over the period from 2016 to 2100. The reduction was small compared to the size of the carbon stocks but significant in comparison to the amount of energy produced from the residues. As a result of these land-use-related emissions, bioenergy production from forest harvest residues would need to be continued for 60–80 years to achieve a 60% carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reduction in heat and power generation compared to the fossil fuels it replaces in most European countries. The emission reductions achieved and their timings varied among countries because of differences in the litter and soil carbon loss. Our results show that extending the current sustainability requirements for bioliquids and biofuels to solid bioenergy does not guarantee efficient reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the short-term. In the longer-term, bioenergy from forest harvest residues may pave the way to low-emission energy systems.     

A review of thermal-chemical conversion of lignocellulosic biomass in China

Biomass, a renewable, sustainable and carbon dioxide neutral resource, has received widespread attention in the energy market as an alternative to fossil fuels. Thermal-chemical conversion of biomass to produce biofuels is a promising technology with many commercial applications. This paper reviewed the state-of-the-art research and development of thermal-chemical conversion of biomass in China with a special focus on gasification, pyrolysis, and catalytic transformation technologies. The advantages and disadvantages, potential of future applications, and challenges related to these technologies are discussed. Conclusively, these transformation technologies for the second-generation biofuels with using non-edible lignocellulosic biomass as feedstocks show prosperous perspective for commercial applications in near future.     

Using dynamic sustainability indicators to assess environmental policy measures in Biosphere Reserves

The assessment of different policy options represents a major tool for decision-makers in Biosphere Reserves, to develop more-resilient strategies for sustainable development and to visualise unintended consequences of these policies.In this work we analyse eight measures proposed by different agents in order to meet the main objectives of environmental sustainability, included in the Action Plan of the Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve (Spain). We quantified the effects of these measures in terms of the sustainability thresholds of 10 environmental indicators, also proposed by the Action Plan, which was integrated in the Fuerteventura Biosphere Reserve dynamic model. Their behaviours under these measures allow determination of whether the objectives will be met in the period 2012–2025. Although some indicators would improve under these measures, fitting certain objectives, some negative effects on other indicators confirm the existence of trade-offs among these objectives. For instance, grazing limitation would improve the proportion of high-quality vegetation but would negatively affect the Egyptian vulture population, which would even fall below its sustainability threshold. The definition of thresholds for each indicator allows decision-makers to establish a way to prioritise among the eight measures analysed. The results show that these measures are insufficient to meet the sustainability thresholds of four indicators (the landscape indicator, the proportion of renewable energy, the per capita primary energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions). Focusing on the remaining six indicators and following the rule “Threshold out, measure out”, seven out of the eight measures would exceed some thresholds and should be avoided. Only one option, aimed at growing fodder to feed cattle on restored traditional agricultural lands, would not exceed any of these thresholds. However, this measure also presents certain negative effects regarding indicators related to flagship species (the houbara habitat and the Egyptian vulture population), which would require compensation measures.     

Photobioreactor cultivation strategies for microalgae and cyanobacteria

The current burden on fossil‐derived chemicals and fuels combined with the rapidly increasing global population has led to a crucial need to develop renewable and sustainable sources of chemicals and biofuels. Photoautotrophic microorganisms, including cyanobacteria and microalgae, have garnered a great deal of attention for their capability to produce these chemicals from carbon dioxide, mineralized water, and solar energy. While there have been substantial amounts of research directed at scaling‐up production from these microorganisms, several factors have proven difficult to overcome, including high costs associated with cultivation, photobioreactor construction, and artificial lighting. Decreasing these costs will substantially increase the economic feasibility of these production processes. Thus, the purpose of this review is to describe various photobioreactor designs, and then provide an overview on lighting systems, mixing, gas transfer, and the hydrodynamics of bubbles. These factors must be considered when the goal of a production process is economic feasibility. Targets for improving microalgae and cyanobacteria cultivation media, including water reduction strategies will also be described. As fossil fuel reserves continue to be depleted and the world population continues to increase, it is imperative that renewable chemical and biofuel production processes be developed toward becoming economically feasible. Thus, it is essential that future research is directed toward improving these processes. © 2018 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:811–827, 2018     

Integrated Environmental Assessment of sunflower oil production

The high energy and petroleum based fuels demand of the world require use of alternative fuels from materials available within each country. Therefore biofuels may be an alternative to mineral diesel. A local pilot production of sunflower oil was implemented in order to test the possibility to reduce fossil fuels consumption on a local scale. Vegetable oils can be directly obtained from oilseed plants and can be used as energy sources in internal combustion engines.Environmental Impact Indicators were provided by Material Flow Accounting, Embodied Energy Analysis and Emergy Accounting. All three approaches reveal that the agricultural phase is the critical step in the whole production line from the point of view of environmental impact. The renewability calculated for the sunflower oil is 33.6%.A comparative Life Cycle Assessment analysis for the sunflower oil production line from conventional farming with organic farming showed environmental advantages.Furthermore use of vegetable oils instead of diesel oil as energy sources in internal combustion engines reduces carbon dioxide emissions of 59%.This study represents an opportunity for farms to reduce dependence on petroleum and to explore energy production systems exploiting renewable energy.     

Metabolic engineering strategies toward production of biofuels

Exacerbation of climate change and air pollution around the world have emphasized the necessity of replacing fossil fuels with clean and sustainable energy. Metabolic engineering has provided strategies to engineer diverse organisms for the production of biofuels from renewable carbon sources. Although some of the processes are commercialized, there has been continued effort to produce advanced biofuels with higher efficiencies. In this article, metabolic engineering strategies recently exploited to enhance biofuel production and facilitate utilization of non-edible low-value carbon sources are reviewed. The strategies include engineering enzymes, exploiting new pathways, and systematically optimizing metabolism and fermentation processes, among others. In addition, metabolic and bioprocess engineering strategies to achieve competitiveness of current biofuel production systems compared with fossil fuels are discussed.     

Biofuels agriculture: landscape‐scale trade‐offs between fuel,economics, carbon,energy, food,and fiber

First‐generation biofuels are an existing, scalable form of renewable energy of the type urgently required to mitigate climate change. In this study, we assessed the potential benefits, costs, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture to inform bioenergy policy. We assessed different climate change and carbon subsidy scenarios in an 11.9 million ha (5.48 million ha arable) region in southern Australia. We modeled the spatial distribution of agricultural production, full life‐cycle net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy, and economic profitability for both food agriculture (wheat, legumes, sheep rotation) and biofuels agriculture (wheat, canola rotation for ethanol/biodiesel production). The costs, benefits, and trade‐offs associated with biofuels agriculture varied geographically, with climate change, and with the level of carbon subsidy. Below we describe the results in general and provide (in parentheses) illustrative results under historical mean climate and a carbon subsidy of A$20 t^?1 CO₂^?e. Biofuels agriculture was more profitable over an extensive area (2.85 million ha) of the most productive arable land and produced large quantities of biofuels (1.7 GL yr^?1). Biofuels agriculture substantially increased economic profit (145.8 million $A yr^?1 or 30%), but had only a modest net GHG abatement (?2.57 million t CO₂^?e yr^?1), and a negligible effect on net energy production (?0.11 PJ yr^?1). However, food production was considerably reduced in terms of grain (?3.04 million t yr^?1) and sheep meat (?1.89 million head yr^?1). Wool fiber production was also substantially reduced (?23.19 kt yr^?1). While biofuels agriculture can produce short‐term benefits, it also has costs, and the vulnerability of biofuels to climatic warming and drying renders it a myopic strategy. Nonetheless, in some areas the profitability of biofuels agriculture is robust to variation in climate and level of carbon subsidy and these areas may form part of a long‐term diversified mix of land‐use solutions to climate change if trade‐offs can be managed.     

A global meta‐analysis of forest bioenergy greenhouse gas emission accounting studies

The potential greenhouse gas benefits of displacing fossil energy with biofuels are driving policy development in the absence of complete information. The potential carbon neutrality of forest biomass is a source of considerable scientific debate because of the complexity of dynamic forest ecosystems, varied feedstock types, and multiple energy production pathways. The lack of scientific consensus leaves decision makers struggling with contradicting technical advice. Analyzing previously published studies, our goal was to identify and prioritize those attributes of bioenergy greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis that are most influential on length of carbon payback period. We investigated outcomes of 59 previously published forest biomass greenhouse gas emissions research studies published between 1991 and 2014. We identified attributes for each study and classified study cases by attributes. Using classification and regression tree analysis, we identified those attributes that are strong predictors of carbon payback period (e.g. the time required by the forest to recover through sequestration the carbon dioxide from biomass combusted for energy). The inclusion of wildfire dynamics proved to be the most influential in determining carbon payback period length compared to other factors such as feedstock type, baseline choice, and the incorporation of leakage calculations. Additionally, we demonstrate that evaluation criteria consistency is required to facilitate equitable comparison between projects. For carbon payback period calculations to provide operational insights to decision makers, future research should focus on creating common accounting principles for the most influential factors including temporal scale, natural disturbances, system boundaries, GHG emission metrics, and baselines.     

Photosynthesis driven conversion of carbon dioxide to fatty alcohols and hydrocarbons in cyanobacteria

The production of high value biochemicals and high energy biofuels from sustainable resources through the use of microbial based, green conversion technologies could reduce the dependence on petrochemical resources. However, a sustainable source of carbon and a clean, cost effective method for its conversion to high quality biofuel products are obstacles that must be overcome. Here we describe the biosynthesis of fatty alcohols in a genetically engineered cyanobacterial system through heterologously expressing fatty acyl-CoA reductase and the effect of environmental stresses on the production of fatty alcohols in the mutant strains. Hydrocarbon production in three representative types of native cyanobacterial model strains and the mutant strain overexpressing acetyl-CoA carboxylase was evaluated. The results of this investigation demonstrate the potential for direct production of high value chemicals and high energy fuels in a single biological system that utilizes solar energy as the energy source and carbon dioxide as the carbon source.     

Development and status of dedicated energy crops in the United States

The biofuel industry is rapidly growing because of increasing energy demand and diminishing petroleum reserves on a global scale. A multitude of biomass resources have been investigated, with high-yielding, perennial feedstocks showing the greatest potential for utilization as advanced biofuels. Government policy and economic drivers have promoted the development and commercialization of biofuel feedstocks, conversion technologies, and supply chain logistics. Research and regulations have focused on the environmental consequences of biofuels, greatly promoting systems that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and life-cycle impacts. Numerous biofuel refineries using lignocellulosic feedstocks and biomass-based triglycerides are either in production or pre-commercial development phases. Leading candidate energy crops have been identified, yet require additional efforts to realize their full potential. Advanced biofuels, complementing conventional biofuels and other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, provide the means to substantially displace humanity’s reliance on petroleum-based energy.     

Socioeconomic indicators for sustainable design and commercial development of algal biofuel systems

Social and economic indicators can be used to support design of sustainable energy systems. Indicators representing categories of social well‐being, energy security, external trade, profitability, resource conservation, and social acceptability have not yet been measured in published sustainability assessments for commercial algal biofuel facilities. We review socioeconomic indicators that have been modeled at the commercial scale or measured at the pilot or laboratory scale, as well as factors that affect them, and discuss additional indicators that should be measured during commercialization to form a more complete picture of socioeconomic sustainability of algal biofuels. Indicators estimated in the scientific literature include the profitability indicators, return on investment (ROI) and net present value (NPV), and the resource conservation indicator, fossil energy return on investment (EROI). These modeled indicators have clear sustainability targets and have been used to design sustainable algal biofuel systems. Factors affecting ROI, NPV, and EROI include infrastructure, process choices, and financial assumptions. The food security indicator, percent change in food price volatility, is probably zero where agricultural lands are not used for production of algae‐based biofuels; however, food‐related coproducts from algae could enhance food security. The energy security indicators energy security premium and fuel price volatility and external trade indicators terms of trade and trade volume cannot be projected into the future with accuracy prior to commercialization. Together with environmental sustainability indicators, the use of a suite of socioeconomic sustainability indicators should contribute to progress toward sustainability of algal biofuels.