Assessing the potential to decrease the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone with Midwest US perennial cellulosic feedstock production

The goal of this research was to determine the changes in streamflow, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching and export to the Gulf of Mexico associated with a range of large‐scale dedicated perennial cellulosic bioenergy production scenarios within in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To achieve this goal, we used Agro‐IBIS, a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of row crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, coupled with THMB, a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and DIN export. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates (0–200 kg N ha^?1) and fractional replacement (5–25%) of current row crops with miscanthus or switchgrass across the MARB. The analysis also includes two scenarios where miscanthus and switchgrass (MRX and MRS, respectively) each replace the ca. 40% of maize production currently devoted to ethanol. Across the scenarios, there were minor reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences (ca. 6%) occurring for miscanthus at the highest fractional replacement scenarios in drier portions of the region. However, differences in total MARB discharge at the basin outlet were less than 1.5% even in the MRX scenario. Reductions in DIN export were much larger on a percentage basis than reductions in runoff, with the highest replacement scenarios decreasing long‐term mean DIN export by ca. 15% and 20% for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. Fertilization scenarios show that significant reductions in DIN leaching are possible even with application rates of 100 and 150 kg N ha^?1 for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow.     

An integrated biogeochemical and economic analysis of bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

This study integrates a biophysical model with a county‐specific economic analysis of breakeven prices of bioenergy crop production to assess the biophysical and economic potential of biofuel production in the Midwestern United States. The bioenergy crops considered in this study include a genotype of Miscanthus, Miscanthus×giganteus, and the Cave‐in‐Rock breed of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). The estimated average peak biomass yield for miscanthus in the Midwestern states ranges between 7 and 48 metric tons dry matter per hectare per year ( t DM ha^?1 yr^?1), while that for switchgrass is between 10 and 16 t DM ha^?1 yr^?1. With the exception of Minnesota and Wisconsin, where miscanthus yields are likely to be low due to cold soil temperatures, the yield of miscanthus is on average more than two times higher than yield of switchgrass. We find that the breakeven price, which includes the cost of producing the crop and the opportunity cost of land, of producing miscanthus ranges from $53 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $153 t^?1 DM in Minnesota in the low‐cost scenario. Corresponding costs for switchgrass are $88 t^?1 DM in Missouri to $144 t^?1 DM in Minnesota. In the high‐cost scenario, the lowest cost for miscanthus is $85 t^?1 DM and for switchgrass is $118 t^?1 DM, both in Missouri. These two scenarios differ in their assumptions about ease of establishing the perennial crops, nutrient requirements and harvesting costs and losses. The differences in the breakeven prices across states and across crops are mainly driven by bioenergy and row crop yields per hectare. Our results suggest that while high yields per unit of land of bioenergy crops are critical for the competitiveness of bioenergy feedstocks, the yields of the row crops they seek to displace are also an important consideration. Even high yielding crops, such as miscanthus, are likely to be economically attractive only in some locations in the Midwest given the high yields of corn and soybean in the region.     

A comparison of canopy evapotranspiration for maize and two perennial grasses identified as potential bioenergy crops

In the Midwestern US, perennial rhizomatous grasses (PRGs) are considered one of the most promising vegetation types to be used as a cellulosic feedstock for renewable energy production. The potential widespread use of biomass crops for renewable energy production has sparked numerous environmental concerns, including the impacts of land‐use change on the hydrologic cycle. We predicted that total seasonal evapotranspiration (ET) would be higher for PRGs relative to maize resulting from higher leaf area and a prolonged growing season. We further predicted that, compared with maize, higher aboveground biomass associated with PRGs would offset the higher ET and increase water‐use efficiency (WUE) in the context of biomass harvests for liquid biofuel production. To test these predictions, ET was estimated during the 2007 growing season for replicated plots of Miscanthus×giganteus (miscanthus), Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Zea mays (maize) using a residual energy balance approach. The combination of a 25% higher mean latent heat flux (λET) and a longer growing season resulted in miscanthus having ca. 55% higher cumulative ET over the growing season compared with maize. Cumulative ET for switchgrass was also higher than maize despite similar seasonal‐mean λET. Based on total harvested aboveground biomass, WUE was ca. 50% higher for maize relative to miscanthus; however, when WUE calculated from only maize grain biomass was compared with WUE calculated from miscanthus harvested aboveground biomass, this difference disappeared. Although WUE between maize and miscanthus differed postsenescence, there were no differences in incremental WUE throughout the growing season. Despite initial predictions, aboveground biomass for switchgrass was less than maize; thus WUE was substantially lower for switchgrass than for either maize scenario. These results indicate that changes in ET due to large‐scale implementation of PRGs in the Midwestern US would likely influence local and regional hydrologic cycles differently than traditional row crops.     

Bioenergy crop greenhouse gas mitigation potential under a range of management practices

Perennial grasses have been proposed as viable bioenergy crops because of their potential to yield harvestable biomass on marginal lands annually without displacing food and to contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction by storing carbon in soil. Switchgrass, miscanthus, and restored native prairie are among the crops being considered in the corn and agricultural regions of the Midwest and eastern United States. In this study, we used an extensive dataset of site observations for each of these crops to evaluate and improve the DayCent biogeochemical model and make predictions about how both yield and GHG fluxes would respond to different management practices compared to a traditional corn‐soy rotation. Using this model‐data integration approach, we found 30–75% improvement in our predictions over previous studies and a subsequent evaluation with a synthesis of sites across the region revealed good model‐data agreement of harvested yields (r² > 0.62 for all crops). We found that replacement of corn‐soy rotations would result in a net GHG reduction of 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 with average annual yields of 3.6, 9.2, and 17.2 Mg of dry biomass per year for native prairie, switchgrass, and miscanthus respectively. Both the yield and GHG balance of switchgrass and miscanthus were affected by harvest date with highest yields occurring near onset of senescence and highest GHG reductions occurring in early spring before the new crops emergence. Addition of a moderate length rotation (10–15 years) caused less than a 15% change to yield and GHG balance. For policy incentives aimed at GHG reduction through onsite management practices and improvement of soil quality, post‐senescence harvests are a more effective means than maximizing yield potential.     

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

Current quantification of climate warming mitigation potential (CWMP) of biomass‐derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site‐level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the community land model (CLM) and estimate CO₂ fluxes, surface energy balance, soil carbon dynamics of corn (Zea mays), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), and miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) ecosystems across the conterminous United States considering different agricultural management practices and land‐use scenarios. We find that neglecting biophysical effects underestimates the CWMP of transitioning from croplands and marginal lands to energy crops. Biogeochemical effects alone result in changes in carbon storage of ?1.9, 49.1, and 69.3 g C m^?2 y^?1 compared to 20.5, 78.5, and 96.2 g C m^?2 y^?1 when considering both biophysical and biogeochemical effects for corn, switchgrass, and miscanthus, respectively. The biophysical contribution to CWMP is dominated by changes in latent heat fluxes. Using the model to optimize growth conditions through fertilization and irrigation increases the CWMP further to 79.6, 98.3, and 118.8 g C m^?2 y^?1, respectively, representing the upper threshold for CWMP. Results also show that the CWMP over marginal lands is lower than that over croplands. This study highlights that neglecting the biophysical effects of altered surface energy and water balance underestimates the CWMP of transitioning to bioenergy crops at regional scales.     

The influence of drought and heat stress on long‐term carbon fluxes of bioenergy crops grown in the Midwestern USA

Perennial grasses are promising feedstocks for bioenergy production in the Midwestern USA. Few experiments have addressed how drought influences their carbon fluxes and storage. This study provides a direct comparison of ecosystem‐scale measurements of carbon fluxes associated with miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), restored native prairie and maize (Zea mays)/soybean (Glycine max) ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to assess the influence of a naturally occurring drought during 2012 on key components of the carbon cycle and plant development relative to non‐extreme years. The perennials reached full maturity 3–5 years after establishment. Miscanthus had the highest gross primary production (GPP) and lowest net ecosystem exchange (NEE) in 2012 followed by similar values for switchgrass and prairie, and the row crops had the lowest GPP and highest NEE. A post‐drought effect was observed for miscanthus. Over the duration of the experiment, perennial ecosystems were carbon sinks, as indicated by negative net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), while maize/soybean was a net carbon source. Our observations suggest that perennial ecosystems, and in particular miscanthus, can provide a high yield and a large potential for CO₂ fixation even during drought, although drought may negatively influence carbon uptake in the following year, questioning the long‐term consequence of its maintained productivity.     

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop‐vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that, cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO₂eq l^?1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO₂eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. However, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop‐specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.     

Mapping cropland waterway buffers for switchgrass development in the eastern Great Plains,USA

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a highly productive perennial grass, has been recommended as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Previous studies indicate that planting perennial grasses (e.g., switchgrass) in high‐topographic‐relief cropland waterway buffers can improve local environmental conditions and sustainability. The main advantages of this land management practice include (i) reducing soil erosion and improving water quality because switchgrass requires less tillage, fertilizers, and pesticides; and (ii) improving regional ecosystem services (e.g., improving water infiltration, minimizing drought and flood impacts on production, and serving as carbon sinks). In this study, we mapped high‐topographic‐relief cropland waterway buffers with high switchgrass productivity potential that may be suitable for switchgrass development in the eastern Great Plains (EGP). The US Geological Survey (USGS) Compound Topographic Index map, National Land Cover Database 2011, USGS irrigation map, and a switchgrass biomass productivity map derived from a previous study were used to identify the switchgrass potential areas. Results show that about 16 342 km² (c. 1.3% of the total study area) of cropland waterway buffers in the EGP are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total annual estimated switchgrass biomass production for these suitable areas is approximately 15 million metric tons. Results from this study provide useful information on EGP areas with good cellulosic switchgrass biomass production potential and synergistic substantial potential for improvement of ecosystem services.     

Using satellite vegetation and compound topographic indices to map highly erodible cropland buffers for cellulosic biofuel crop developments in eastern Nebraska,USA

Cultivating annual row crops in high topographic relief waterway buffers has negative environmental effects and can be environmentally unsustainable. Growing perennial grasses such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) for biomass (e.g., cellulosic biofuel feedstocks) instead of annual row crops in these high relief waterway buffers can improve local environmental conditions (e.g., reduce soil erosion and improve water quality through lower use of fertilizers and pesticides) and ecosystem services (e.g., minimize drought and flood impacts on production; improve wildlife habitat, plant vigor, and nitrogen retention due to post-senescence harvest for cellulosic biofuels; and serve as carbon sinks). The main objectives of this study are to: (1) identify cropland areas with high topographic relief (high runoff potentials) and high switchgrass productivity potential in eastern Nebraska that may be suitable for growing switchgrass, and (2) estimate the total switchgrass production gain from the potential biofuel areas. Results indicate that about 140,000 hectares of waterway buffers in eastern Nebraska are suitable for switchgrass development and the total annual estimated switchgrass biomass production for these suitable areas is approximately 1.2 million metric tons. The resulting map delineates high topographic relief croplands and provides useful information to land managers and biofuel plant investors to make optimal land use decisions regarding biofuel crop development and ecosystem service optimization in eastern Nebraska.     

Soil mycorrhizal and nematode diversity vary in response to bioenergy crop identity and fertilization

The mandate by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 to increase renewable fuel production in the USA has resulted in extensive research into the sustainability of perennial bioenergy crops such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and miscanthus (Miscanthus× giganteus). Perennial grassland crops have been shown to support greater aboveground biodiversity and ecosystem function than annual crops. However, management considerations, such as what crop to plant or whether to use fertilizer, may alter belowground diversity and ecosystem functioning associated with these grasslands as well. In this study, we compared crop type (switchgrass or miscanthus) and nitrogen fertilization effects on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) and soil nematode abundance, activity, and diversity in a long‐term experiment. We quantified AMF root colonization, AMF extra‐radical hyphal length, soil glomalin concentrations, AMF richness and diversity, plant‐parasitic nematode abundance, and nematode family richness and diversity in each treatment. Mycorrhizal activity and diversity were higher with switchgrass than with miscanthus, leading to higher potential soil carbon contributions via increased hyphal growth and glomalin production. Plant‐parasitic nematode (PPN) abundance was 2.3 ×  higher in miscanthus plots compared to switchgrass, mostly due to increases in dagger nematodes (Xiphinema). The higher PPN abundance in miscanthus may be a consequence of lower AMF in this species, as AMF can provide protection against PPN through a variety of mechanisms. Nitrogen fertilization had minor negative effects on AMF and nematode diversity associated with these crops. Overall, we found that crop type and fertilizer application associated with perennial bioenergy cropping systems can have detectable effects on the diversity and composition of soil communities, which may have important consequences for the ecosystem services provided by these systems.     

Climate cooling benefits of cellulosic bioenergy crops from elevated albedo

Changes in land surface albedo can alter ecosystem energy balance and potentially influence climate. We examined the albedo of six bioenergy cropping systems in southwest Michigan USA: monocultures of energy sorghum (Sorghum bicolor), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and giant miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus), and polycultures of native grasses, early successional vegetation, and restored prairie. Direct field measurements of surface albedo (α_s) from May 2018 through December 2020 at half-hourly intervals in each system quantified the magnitudes and seasonal differences in albedo (∆_α) and albedo-induced radiative forcing (RF_∆α). We used a nearby forest as a historical native cover type to estimate reference albedo and RF_∆α change upon original land use conversion, and a continuous no-till maize (Zea mays L.) system as a contemporary reference to estimate change upon conversion from annual row crops. Annually, α_s differed significantly (p < 0.05) among crops in the order: early successional (0.288 ± 0.012SE) >> miscanthus (0.271 ± 0.009) ≈ energy sorghum (0.270 ± 0.010) ≥ switchgrass (0.265 ± 0.009) ≈ restored prairie (0.264 ± 0.012) > native grasses (0.259 ± 0.010) > maize (0.247 ± 0.010). Reference forest had the lowest annual α_s (0.134 ± 0.003). Albedo differences among crops during the growing season were also statistically significant, with growing season α_s in perennial crops and energy sorghum on average ~20% higher (0.206 ± 0.003) than in no-till maize (0.184 ± 0.002). Average non-growing season (NGS) α_s (0.370 ± 0.020) was much higher than growing season α_s (0.203 ± 0.003) but these NGS differences were not significant. Overall, the original conversion of reference forest and maize landscapes to perennials provided a cooling effect on the local climate (RF_αMAIZE: −3.83 ± 1.00 W m⁻²; RF_αFOREST: −16.75 ± 3.01 W m⁻²). Significant differences among cropping systems suggest an additional management intervention for maximizing the positive climate benefit of bioenergy crops, with cellulosic crops on average ~9.1% more reflective than no-till maize, which itself was about twice as reflective as the reference forest.     

Implications of productivity and nutrient requirements on greenhouse gas balance of annual and perennial bioenergy crops

Biomass from dedicated crops is expected to contribute significantly to the replacement of fossil resources. However, sustainable bioenergy cropping systems must provide high biomass production and low environmental impacts. This study aimed at quantifying biomass production, nutrient removal, expected ethanol production, and greenhouse gas (GHG) balance of six bioenergy crops: Miscanthus × giganteus, switchgrass, fescue, alfalfa, triticale, and fiber sorghum. Biomass production and N, P, K balances (input‐output) were measured during 4 years in a long‐term experiment, which included two nitrogen fertilization treatments. These results were used to calculate a posteriori ‘optimized’ fertilization practices, which would ensure a sustainable production with a nil balance of nutrients. A modified version of the cost/benefit approach proposed by Crutzen et al. (2008), comparing the GHG emissions resulting from N‐P‐K fertilization of bioenergy crops and the GHG emissions saved by replacing fossil fuel, was applied to these ‘optimized’ situations. Biomass production varied among crops between 10.0 (fescue) and 26.9 t DM ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early) and the expected ethanol production between 1.3 (alfalfa) and 6.1 t ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early). The cost/benefit ratio ranged from 0.10 (miscanthus harvested late) to 0.71 (fescue); it was closely correlated with the N/C ratio of the harvested biomass, except for alfalfa. The amount of saved CO₂ emissions varied from 1.0 (fescue) to 8.6 t CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1 (miscanthus harvested early or late). Due to its high biomass production, miscanthus was able to combine a high production of ethanol and a large saving of CO₂ emissions. Miscanthus and switchgrass harvested late gave the best compromise between low N‐P‐K requirements, high GHG saving per unit of biomass, and high productivity per hectare.     

Comparative Biogeochemical Cycles of Bioenergy Crops Reveal Nitrogen-Fixation and Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Miscanthus × giganteus Agro-Ecosystem

We evaluated the biogeochemical cycling and relative greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of proposed biofuel feedstock crops by modeling growth dynamics of Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deuter (miscanthus), Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass), Zea mays L. (corn), and a mixed prairie community under identical field conditions. DAYCENT model simulations for miscanthus were parameterized with data from trial plots in Europe and Illinois, USA. Switchgrass, corn, and prairie ecosystems were simulated using parameters published in the literature. A previously unknown source of nitrogen (N) was necessary to balance the plant nutrient budget in miscanthus crops, leading us to hypothesize that miscanthus growth depends on N-fixation. We tested for nitrogenase activity by acetylene reduction of whole rhizomes and bacteria isolated from the rhizosphere and miscanthus tissue. Our results supported the hypothesis that biological N-fixation contributed to the N demand of miscanthus, a highly productive perennial grass. Corn agro-ecosystems emit 956 to 1899 g CO_2eq m⁻²y⁻¹ greater GHGs (including CO₂, N₂O, CH₄) to the atmosphere than the other biofuel crop alternatives because of greater N₂O emissions from fertilizer additions. Of the feedstock crops evaluated in this study, miscanthus would result in the greatest GHG reduction.     

Changes in soil carbon stocks under perennial and annual bioenergy crops

Bioenergy crops are expected to provide biomass to replace fossil resources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are of primary importance. The aim of this study was to measure changes in SOC stocks in bioenergy cropping systems comparing perennial (Miscanthus × giganteus and switchgrass), semi‐perennial (fescue and alfalfa), and annual (sorghum and triticale) crops, all established after arable crops. The soil was sampled at the start of the experiment and 5 or 6 years later. SOC stocks were calculated at equivalent soil mass, and δ¹³C measurements were used to calculate changes in new and old SOC stocks. Crop residues found in soil at the time of SOC measurements represented 3.5–7.2 t C ha^?1 under perennial crops vs. 0.1–0.6 t C ha^?1 for the other crops. During the 5‐year period, SOC concentrations under perennial crops increased in the surface layer (0–5 cm) and slightly declined in the lower layers. Changes in δ¹³C showed that C inputs were mainly located in the 0–18 cm layer. In contrast, SOC concentrations increased over time under semi‐perennial crops throughout the old ploughed layer (ca. 0–33 cm). SOC stocks in the old ploughed layer increased significantly over time under semi‐perennials with a mean increase of 0.93 ± 0.28 t C ha^?1 yr^?1, whereas no change occurred under perennial or annual crops. New SOC accumulation was higher for semi‐perennial than for perennial crops (1.50 vs. 0.58 t C ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively), indicating that the SOC change was due to a variation in C input rather than a change in mineralization rate. Nitrogen fertilization rate had no significant effect on SOC stocks. This study highlights the interest of comparing SOC changes over time for various cropping systems.     

Targeted subfield switchgrass integration could improve the farm economy,water quality,and bioenergy feedstock production

Progress on reducing nutrient loss from annual croplands has been hampered by perceived conflicts between short‐term profitability and long‐term stewardship, but these may be overcome through strategic integration of perennial crops. Perennial biomass crops like switchgrass can mitigate nitrate‐nitrogen (NO₃‐N) leaching, address bioenergy feedstock targets, and – as a lower‐cost management alternative to annual crops (i.e., corn, soybeans) – may also improve farm profitability. We analyzed publicly available environmental, agronomic, and economic data with two integrated models: a subfield agroecosystem management model, Landscape Environmental Assessment Framework (LEAF), and a process‐based biogeochemical model, DeNitrification‐DeComposition (DNDC). We constructed a factorial combination of profitability and NO₃‐N leaching thresholds and simulated targeted switchgrass integration into corn/soybean cropland in the agricultural state of Iowa, USA. For each combination, we modeled (i) area converted to switchgrass, (ii) switchgrass biomass production, and (iii) NO₃‐N leaching reduction. We spatially analyzed two scenarios: converting to switchgrass corn/soybean cropland losing >US$ 100 ha^?1 and leaching >50 kg ha^?1 (‘conservative’ scenario) or losing >US$ 0 ha^?1 and leaching >20 kg ha^?1 (‘nutrient reduction’ scenario). Compared to baseline, the ‘conservative’ scenario resulted in 12% of cropland converted to switchgrass, which produced 11 million Mg of biomass and reduced leached NO₃‐N 18% statewide. The ‘nutrient reduction’ scenario converted 37% of cropland to switchgrass, producing 34 million Mg biomass and reducing leached NO₃‐N 38% statewide. The opportunity to meet joint goals was greatest within watersheds with undulating topography and lower corn/soybean productivity. Our approach bridges the scales at which NO₃‐N loss and profitability are usually considered, and is informed by both mechanistic and empirical understanding. Though approximated, our analysis supports development of farm‐level tools that can identify locations where both farm profitability and water quality improvement can be achieved through the strategic integration of perennial vegetation.     

A spatial model of climate change effects on yields and break‐even prices of switchgrass and miscanthus in Ontario,Canada

Concerns over global climate change have led many jurisdictions to implement strategies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas levels. One example is the replacement of coal with dedicated energy crops, such as switchgrass and miscanthus. The yields and costs of these potentially valuable bio‐energy crops have been evaluated in only a few cases, and previous studies have not focused on climate change effects. This article assesses the potential yields and costs of growing switchgrass and miscanthus on the agricultural land base in Ontario, Canada, under different climate assumptions, using a GIS‐based integrated biophysical and economic simulation model. The model shows that miscanthus has a mean peak yield that is 88.5% (29.6 t ha^?1 compared with 15.7 t ha^?1) higher and a mean farm gate break‐even price that is 25.9% ($58.20 per tonne compared with $73.29 per tonne) lower than switchgrass. The impact of climate change on the yield and break‐even price of switchgrass and miscanthus is dependent upon the climate model. CGCM3.1 predicts that mean peak yields of switchgrass and miscanthus could drop by 17.8% and 14.9%, whereas CCSM3.0 predicts that mean yields could increase to 41.4% and 44.9%, from 2071 to 2100, in the A2 climate scenario respectively. Both crops show promise as biomass sources for bio‐energy production, but a changing global climate, along with cultivar and planting technology developments, could affect crop choices.     

Hydrological responses of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to cellulosic bioenergy crops in the Southern High Plains of Texas,USA

The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas in the United States, where cotton is grown in a vast acreage, has the potential to grow cellulosic bioenergy crops such as perennial grasses and biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor). Evaluation of hydrological responses and biofuel production potential of hypothetical land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to cellulosic bioenergy crops enables better understanding of the associated key agroecosystem processes and provides for the feasibility assessment of the targeted land use change in the SHP. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impacts of replacing cotton with perennial Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. [Poaceae]), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) and annual biomass sorghum on water balances, water use efficiency and biofuel production potential in the Double Mountain Fork Brazos watershed. Under perennial grass scenarios, the average (1994–2009) annual surface runoff from the entire watershed decreased by 6–8% relative to the baseline cotton scenario. In contrast, surface runoff increased by about 5% under the biomass sorghum scenario. Perennial grass land use change scenarios suggested an increase in average annual percolation within a range of 3–22% and maintenance of a higher soil water content during August to April compared to the baseline cotton scenario. About 19.1, 11.1, 3.2 and 8.8 Mg ha^?1 of biomass could potentially be produced if cotton area in the watershed would hypothetically be replaced by Miscanthus, switchgrass, big bluestem and biomass sorghum, respectively. Finally, Miscanthus and switchgrass were found to be ideal bioenergy crops for the dryland and irrigated systems, respectively, in the study watershed due to their higher water use efficiency, better water conservation effects, greater biomass and biofuel production potential, and minimum crop management requirements.     

Nitrous oxide emissions during establishment of eight alternative cellulosic bioenergy cropping systems in the North Central United States

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from soils are a key sustainability metric of cropping systems. During crop establishment, disruptive land‐use change is known to be a critical, but under reported period, for determining GHG emissions. We measured soil N₂O emissions and potential environmental drivers of these fluxes from a three‐year establishment‐phase bioenergy cropping systems experiment replicated in southcentral Wisconsin (ARL) and southwestern Michigan (KBS). Cropping systems treatments were annual monocultures (continuous corn, corn–soybean–canola rotation), perennial monocultures (switchgrass, miscanthus, and poplar), and perennial polycultures (native grass mixture, early successional community, and restored prairie) all grown using best management practices specific to the system. Cumulative three‐year N₂O emissions from annuals were 142% higher than from perennials, with fertilized perennials 190% higher than unfertilized perennials. Emissions ranged from 3.1 to 19.1 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1 for the annuals with continuous corn > corn–soybean–canola rotation and 1.1 to 6.3 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1 for perennials. Nitrous oxide peak fluxes typically were associated with precipitation events that closely followed fertilization. Bayesian modeling of N₂O fluxes based on measured environmental factors explained 33% of variability across all systems. Models trained on single systems performed well in most monocultures (e.g., R² = 0.52 for poplar) but notably worse in polycultures (e.g., R² = 0.17 for early successional, R² = 0.06 for restored prairie), indicating that simulation models that include N₂O emissions should be parameterized specific to particular plant communities. Our results indicate that perennial bioenergy crops in their establishment phase emit less N₂O than annual crops, especially when not fertilized. These findings should be considered further alongside yield and other metrics contributing to important ecosystem services.     

Determining spatially varying profit-maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States

Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit-maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha⁻¹ for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit-maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha⁻¹ at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha⁻¹ at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha⁻¹ for middle-aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha⁻¹ at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.     

Influence of spatially dependent,modeled soil carbon emission factors on life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol

Converting land to biofuel feedstock production incurs changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) that can influence biofuel life‐cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates of these land use change (LUC) and life‐cycle GHG emissions affect biofuels' attractiveness and eligibility under a number of renewable fuel policies in the USA and abroad. Modeling was used to refine the spatial resolution and depth extent of domestic estimates of SOC change for land (cropland, cropland pasture, grassland, and forest) conversion scenarios to biofuel crops (corn, corn stover, switchgrass, Miscanthus, poplar, and willow) at the county level in the USA. Results show that in most regions, conversions from cropland and cropland pasture to biofuel crops led to neutral or small levels of SOC sequestration, while conversion of grassland and forest generally caused net SOC loss. SOC change results were incorporated into the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation (GREET) model to assess their influence on life‐cycle GHG emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol. Total LUC GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1) were 2.1–9.3 for corn‐, ?0.7 for corn stover‐, ?3.4 to 12.9 for switchgrass‐, and ?20.1 to ?6.2 for Miscanthus ethanol; these varied with SOC modeling assumptions applied. Extending the soil depth from 30 to 100 cm affected spatially explicit SOC change and overall LUC GHG emissions; however, the influence on LUC GHG emission estimates was less significant in corn and corn stover than cellulosic feedstocks. Total life‐cycle GHG emissions (g CO₂eq MJ^?1, 100 cm) were estimated to be 59–66 for corn ethanol, 14 for stover ethanol, 18–26 for switchgrass ethanol, and ?7 to ?0.6 for Miscanthus ethanol. The LUC GHG emissions associated with poplar‐ and willow‐derived ethanol may be higher than that for switchgrass ethanol due to lower biomass yield.