Airborne-pollen map for Olea europaea L. in eastern Andalusia (Spain) using GIS: Estimation models

Estimations based upon geostatistics and mapping have enabled the construction of a spatial model to predict the presence of biological particles in a particular region. This methodological proposal has been tested in a case study, at a regional scale, of airborne Olea pollen, using the data acquired from␣various sampling stations that are designed for the aerobiological monitoring of pollen levels. These sampling stations have been set up in cities throughout the region of Andalusia (southern Spain) at sites with very different characteristics in terms of biogeography, bioclimate, topography and vegetation. Pollen counts were made daily at all sites during 2003 using a volumetric spore-trap. Data were comparatively analysed in classical diagrams and by means of spatial-temporal maps. Space-time models were constructed using three coordinates, x, y (the UTM coordinates of each sampling station) and z, (the aerobiological data compiled for a specific period). The aerobiological data were interpolated by applying the traditional geostatistical method of Kriging. The introduction of the variable “space” into the model allowed us to predict pollen levels in different areas throughout the region. The interpolation method was used to make weekly estimations of Olea pollen values in areas where there was no aerobiological sampling station. In addition, the maps generated present a two-dimensional vision of the study area, showing that bioclimatic diversity of this region promotes a step-wise flowering of Olea.     

Aeropalynological and phenological study in two different Mediterranean olive areas: Cordoba (Spain) and Perugia (Italy)

ABSTRACT

An aerobiological and phenological investigation on the olive tree was carried out during three years in two areas: Cordoba (Spain) and Perugia (Italy). In these countries, this species is economically important and those areas were chosen because of the long series of aeropalynological data (1982–1998) available, obtained by means of identical volumetric pollen traps. The aim of this study was to use phenological observations to prove the real contribution to the pollen curves in different cultivated areas. Results show that in Cordoba province (302.152 ha) the pollen curve is characterised by different peaks because of the pollination of different cultivated crops. In some cases, these crops are located far from the pollen trap (50 km) but pollen is transported thanks to favourable winds during the flowering period. In Perugia (750 ha) the pollen curve is characterised by only one peak; it is very concentrated because of the proximity of the investigated crops. The objective of this research was to obtain information on this species in order to elaborate statistical models aimed at forecasting the potential fruit production based on the amount of pollen released into the atmosphere.     

Methods in phenological mapping

Summary Phenological maps of flowering provide useful information about both spatial and temporal patterns of pollen emission, and their use could bring a substantial improvement of aerobiological forecasts. This paper presents a method for preparing flowering maps by computer on the basis of phenological data and topography. Data drawn from topographic maps are processed with the aid of an empirical model, based on the relationships between phenology and environment, for obtaining a phenological delay matrix. From this matrix it is possible to derive automatically various kinds of maps (chronological, synoptical and differential). An application is described, relating to the blooming patterns of a set of wild plants in a mountainous area of Northern Italy.     

Study of the floral phenology of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Olea europaea</Emphasis> L. in Jaén province (SE Spain) and its relation with pollen emission

Phenological and aerobiological studies provide important information regarding the reproductive biology of cultivated species such as the olive. This article presents the results of an exploratory study of the floral phenology of Olea europaea L. at different altitudes in Jaén province (SE Spain) and an analysis of the main meteorological factors affecting flowering. As well, this study aimed to detect the relationship between phenology and olive pollen emission as a means of interpreting Olea pollen curves in the city of Jaén. Phenological observations were performed on olive trees at six sites, each at different altitudes and distributed over the whole area of olive cultivation in the province. Pollen data were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric spore trap located within the city of Jaén. Phenological and aerobiological data were recorded in 2006 and 2007. This study shows that the chronology of the start of the flowering period depends on altitude. Statistical analyses indicate that the temperature, humidity, cumulative rainfall and cumulative solar radiation are the meteorological parameters that most affect olive floral phenology. The pollen season in Jaén generally lasts from May to June, with an annual total emission of over 40,000 pollen grains, the highest annual level of olive pollen emission in the world. The airborne pollen concentrations recorded in the city of Jaén are above all influenced by the olive groves located in the Guadalquivir valley.     

Aerobiological and meteorological factors’ influence on olive (Olea europaea L.) crop yield in Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain)

Knowledge of the main biological and climate factors influencing final harvest is becoming increasingly necessary in order to obtain reliable crop estimates and, thus, ensure optimised, effective private crop management. This knowledge is also of great value to public agricultural institutions for the planning of government subsidies. Castilla-La Mancha (Central Spain) is the second largest olive-oil-producing region in Spain, the highest olive-oil-producing country in the world. This study sought to identify the main factors influencing olive fruit production in this region, including atmospheric pollen as an index of flowering intensity, and meteorological data over the flowering and fruiting seasons in two main olive-producing provinces of the region: Ciudad Real and Toledo. Statistical analysis indicated that the annual pollen index (PI) was the variable influencing most the final olive crop in both provinces. The maximum temperature in March was the meteorological variable affecting most the annual olive crop. Also, the rainfall registered in October influences the final fruit production. The integration of aerobiological and meteorological data represents an important step forward in the development of future crop forecasting models in the region of Castilla-La Mancha.     

May the definition of pollen season influence aerobiological results?

This paper reviews the terms and major criteria used to define and limit the pollen season. Pollen data from Cordoba (Spain), Ourense (Spain) and Bologna (Italy) were used to ascertain the extent to which aerobiological results and pollen curves are modified by the criteria selected. Results were analysed using Spearmanȁ9s correlation test. Phenological observations were also used to determine synchronization between pollen curves and plant phenology. The criteria for limiting the shortest and longest pollen season periods, as well as the earliest and latest start and end dates, varied according to the city and the taxon under study; in many cases, results for a given taxon also depended on the year. The smallest differences were obtained for Platanus and the greatest for Poaceae.     

Olive flowering trends in a large Mediterranean area (Italy and Spain)

The aim of this study was to investigate the main climatic and biological trends related to olive flowering in central-southern Italy compared to those in Andalusia, Spain. Results since 1982 were compared for the two long-series monitoring areas of Cordoba and Perugia, and since 1992–1999 for the short-series areas. The relationship between climatic trends and the biological response of the olive, a widespread culture in the Mediterranean basin, were investigated. An aerobiological method involving capturing pollen released into the atmosphere was utilised as a bioindicator of flowering phenology. The study results confirm the strong relationship between flowering periods and spring temperature trends for the olive. Temperature during March, April and May was the parameter most related to flowering date in the study areas, particularly in Italy. In some cases we found a significant correlation between flowering and past autumn temperatures, probably due to their effect on floral bud dormancy induction, but this phenomenon appeared to be of minor importance in the studied areas. The phenological trend results show the continuous advance of flowering dates to the late 1990s, followed by a relatively stationary time series related to a short-term temperature fluctuation in the Mediterranean area. This latter period probably represents a mesoscale event forced by a macroscale event—the North Atlantic Oscillation. The results reveal that the trend towards increased temperatures, and the consequent flowering advance of some species, indicated some years ago is nowadays not as clear as was expected and should be confirmed over the next few years in the Mediterranean areas under investigation.     

Influence of meteorological parameters on olea pollen concentrations in Córdoba (South-western Spain)

The influence of meteorological parameters on the dispersion of airborne pollen has been studied by several authors. Olive pollen is the major cause of allergy in southern Spain, where a large part of the arable surface area is given over to olive cultivation. Daily pollen forecasts provide important information both for pollen-allergy sufferers and for agronomists trying to achieve a better biological understanding of variations in airborne olive pollen levels. The main purpose of this paper is to study, by means of short-term statistical analysis, the effect of meteorological parameters on airborne olive pollen concentrations in the city of Cordoba (south-western Spain). Twenty-one-year (1982–2002) aerobiological and meteorological databases were used. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to study the relationships between olive pollen levels and several meteorological parameters. Statistical analysis was applied both to the whole pollen season and to the pre-peak period. Daily meteorological parameters, such as accumulated mean temperature, accumulated sunlight hours, and accumulated rainfall were used as independent variables in both statistical analyses. Accumulated meteorological variables were of the greatest value in most regression analysis equations, heat-related variables being the most important.     

Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several sites in Andalusia and the effect of the expected future climate change

Olives are one of the largest crops in the Mediterranean region, especially in Andalusia, in southern Spain. A thermal model has been developed for forecasting the start of the olive tree pollen season at five localities in Andalusia: Cordoba, Priego, Jaen, Granada and Malaga using airborne pollen and meteorological data from 1982 to 2001. Threshold temperatures varied between 5°C and 12.5°C depending on bio-geographical characteristics. The external validity of the results was tested using the data for the year 2002 as an independent variable and it confirmed the models accuracy with only a few days difference from predicted values. All the localities had increasingly earlier start dates during the study period. This could confirm that olive flower phenology can be considered as a sensitive indicator of the effects of climate fluctuations in the Mediterranean area. The theoretical impact of the predicted climatic warming on the olives flowering phenology at the end of the century is also proposed by applying Regional Climate Model data. A general advance, from 1 to 3 weeks could be expected, although this advance will be more pronounced in mid-altitude inland areas.     

An integrated use of aerobiological and phenological data to analyse flowering in olive groves

Aerobiological and phenological investigation has been linked to analyse the flowering phenomena of olive (Olea europaea L.), a tree of economic importance, in Umbria, central Italy.

Olive tree flowering was analysed by phenological observations in olive groves. Aerobiological monitoring was carried out with pollen traps that captured the pollen grains in the atmosphere by remote distances. This combined study of flowering was useful in overcoming the principal limit of phenological observations caused by their geographical narrowness.

Eleven phenological stations in Perugia province were used and periodic observations were carried out during the flowering season. Two aerobiological stations located near the cities of Perugia and Spoleto were utilized to trap olive pollen grains in the atmosphere.

Graphic and statistical analyses were used in order to study flowering dynamics, and to compare the methodological approaches.

The phenological areas, according to their characteristics, were divided in two clusters each one related to a different pollen monitoring station. Statistical analyses showed the presence of a three ‐ four‐day period during which pollen released in the groves is persistent in the narrowness and resulted in a high correlation with the pollen monitored by the pollen traps. On the other hand, the phenological data considered along with the daily pollen concentrations permit the pollen peaks to be attributed to particular olive areas or olive cultivars. This demonstrates that both methodologies can be used effectively as integrated research tools in this kind of study.     

Evidences of olive pollination date variations in relation to spring temperature trends

Airborne pollen concentration patterns reflect flowering phenology of a given species, and it may be a sensitive regional indicator in climate change studies. This paper presents the relationship between a strategic biological event, such as olive flowering, and the air temperature trend, registered over a large scale (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The aim of the study was to determine relationships between phenological behaviour (flowering) of olive trees and the air temperature trend (1982–2007) in the Umbria region. The phenological data on flowering phase were registered indirectly through an aerobiological monitoring technique. The obtained results showed a strong relationship between phenology and thermal trend. This characteristic was confirmed from results of correlations between temperature (mean temperature from 1st March) and flowering dates, especially that of full flowering (r = −0.9297). Moreover, the results showed an advance trend of 6, 8 and 10 days, respectively of start, full and end of flowering dates. The advance of the recorded flowering time in this period is to ascribe mainly to the increase of mean temperature and above all to that registered in months of May and June.     

物候模式识别在生态动力预报中的应用

以物候资料和数值天气预报模式输出图为基础,应用模式识别和数理逻辑判断的自动化技术,阐述制作生态动力预报的原理、方法和步骤.生态动力预报技术使传统的物候学在气象学和自动化技术支持下,扩展应用到生态预报业务领域,使物候预报从单站预报阶段发展到区域预报阶段,同时促进了农业气象预报方法从定性、统计阶段向动力预报阶段发展.该方法在农作物播种、长势、灌溉与施肥、病虫害防治等方面具有广阔的应用前景.     

An automated system for surveying and forecasting Olea pollen dispersion

An automated system for Olea pollensurveying and forecasting is being developedfor the province of Cordoba, Spain, within theframework of the European ASTHMA project.Required input data have been split into threecategories: static data, calibration parametersand dynamic data. A 200 × 200 km potential pollenproduction map, centred on the city of Cordoba,was drawn up using digital high-resolutionsatellite data and reflecting average plantdensity, as derived from the observed spatialseparation of trees in 28 different locations.Based on archives of pollen data from 1982, thestart of the pollen season was determined byapplying both heat accumulation methods andneural network analysis including furthermeteorological parameters. The forecast andsurvey system is based on a set of twoelementary atmospheric physics modules andbiological models: emission and dispersionmodules. The system can run in different modes,allowing forecasting of the floweringstart-date and, from that date, charting theemission and dispersion of pollenconcentrations in the area. Also, wind andtemperature fields are regularly computed andupdated using deterministic numerical models tochart the spatial and temporal concentration ofOlea pollen.     

Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology

It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982–2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and “K-means” clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.     

Geobotanical and phenological monitoring of allergenic pollen grains in the Florence area

In earlier works we have investigated the correlation between aerobiological and phytogcographical data, assessing the presence and number of the most important allergenic taxa in our area. More recently we have enquired into the relationship between phenological and aerobiological phenomena, checking the flowering period of the allergenic species growing in different ecological stations.

These studies have been further developed by analytical investigations of the phenomena. Presence-abundance of the taxonomic groups has been assessed by field surveys and represented cartographically. An accurate evaluation of the results has made it possible to draw up a series of maps in order to provide (a) a more precise knowledge of the relationship between pollen dispersal and trapping and the pollen sources, (b) useful data for the interpretation and prediction of symptoms in patients.     

Phenological behaviour of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus</Emphasis> in Ourense (NW Spain) and its relationship with the atmospheric pollen season

Knowing the beginning of the pollen season is of particular importance to people allergic to a given pollen. Phenological studies in combination with aerobiological studies enable us to observe the relationship between the reproductive phenology of the species and their airborne pollen curves. They also enable us to study the relationship between the release of pollen from anthers and its presence in the atmosphere. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine chill and heat requirements for different phenological phases in the Quercus species present in Ourense (Spain), (2) to verify the synchronization between the flowering event and the presence of Quercus pollen in the air, (3) to select the best criterion for determining the onset of the pollen season according to phenological data, and finally, (4) to obtain models enabling us to determine the onset of the pollen season. Pollen monitoring was carried out from 1993 to 2001, by means of a 7-day Lanzoni VPPS pollen trap and, in order to characterize the floral phenophase of different Quercus species, a sampling method was applied from February to June 2001. We observed that climatic and biotic factors can produce a delay in the onset of the pollen season. Temperatures above 8 degrees C and between 6 degrees C to 8 degrees C are good threshold temperatures for estimating chill and heat requirements respectively. Medium-distance transportation of Quercus robur and Quercus pyrenaica pollen from areas 10-30 km away influences the concentrations of Quercus pollen registered in Ourense.     

Use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus ilex</Emphasis> subsp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">ballota</Emphasis> phenological and pollen-production data for interpreting <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus</Emphasis> pollen curves

Although aerobiological data are often used in phenological research as an indicator of flowering, airborne pollen concentrations are influenced by a number of factors that could affect pollen curves. This paper reports on a study of various aspects of reproductive biology in Q. ilex subsp. ballota, together with environmental factors influencing pollen release and transport, with a view of achieving reliable interpretation of Quercus pollen curves in Ourense (NW Spain). Aerobiological data were recorded from 2002 to 2004 at two sites in the province of Ourense. From 1st February to the end of the flowering period, phenological observations were carried out on 19 trees from the Q. ilex subsp. ballota population found in the Ourense area. Pollen production was calculated for the same trees. The chilling and heating requirements for triggering development were also calculated. The mean flowering period lasted 11-15 days. Reduced pollen output per catkin and, especially, a reduced number of catkins per tree in 2003 and 2004, prompted a marked decline in overall pollen production. Major differences observed in Q. ilex subsp. ballota pollen curves were attributed to the considerable influence both of weather conditions during pollination and pollen production. In years with high pollen production and weather conditions favouring pollen release, Q. ilex subsp. ballota contributed almost 10% to the total Quercus pollen curve. Around 20% of the pollen trapped was captured before or after flowering periods.     

Phenological and aerobiological monitoring of allergenic flora in padua (Italy). Preliminary data

A phenological study on allergenic plants was carried out in Padua during 1995 in order to identify spontaneous and cultivated allergenic species in an urban area and their distribution, and to evaluate the relationship between anthesis length and airborne pollen concentrations. In some cases, there was no temporal overlap between phenological and aerobiological data, in particular forCorylaceae, Betulaceae, Chenopodiaceae, Amaranthaceae, Polygonaceae and Fagaceae.     

Biological-based and remote sensing techniques to link vegetative and reproductive development and assess pollen emission in Mediterranean grasses

Connecting the signals of the vegetative and reproductive cycles of plants using large-scale phenological techniques is not always an easy task, and this complexity increases considerably when analysing the plant life cycle in grasses, due to the ubiquity and diversity of this taxonomic family. This work integrates remote sensing techniques (NDVI from satellite remote sensing data and greenness from near-surface imagery) and biological-based techniques (airborne pollen monitoring and field observations and sampling) to analyse phenological patterns and productivity in grass-dominated vegetation types. We aim to answer two main applied and unanswered questions; i) how are the specific phases of vegetative and reproductive cycles in grasses linked at the species and plant community level? and ii) which grass-dominant habitats are the major contributors of grass pollen emission to the atmosphere at the plant community level? The multi-scale integration and validation of large-scale methods such as satellite remote sensing data and aerobiological monitoring using high-resolution or field phenological techniques is recommended. The results clearly support the hypothesis that the highest rates of grass pollen emission are successively produced when the major grass-dominated vegetation types go through the final phases of vegetative development during their biological senescence or equivalent phases. At the plant community level, natural and semi-natural grass-dominated vegetation types, rather than grass cropland habitats, constitute the major sources of pollen emission. The major contributors to the grass pollen emission at the species level are also identified. Finally, a positive relationship between year-to-year primary productivity (measured as annual sum or maximum NDVI) and pollen production (measured as airborne pollen intensity) was observed at the community level. This is a very timely study, as the availability of remote sensing data is increasing interest in generating enhanced forecasting model of allergenic airborne pollen.