Unpredictable selection in a structured population leads to local genetic differentiation in evolved reaction norms

Unpredictability during development of the optimum phenotype under future selection leads to a compromise reaction norm with a slope that is shallower than the slope of the optimum reaction norm. Unpredictability of selection can lead to an evolved curved reaction norm when genetic variation for curvature is available even if the optimum reaction norm is linear. This requires asymmetry in the frequency distribution of the habitats of selection; at small population size, stochasticity in the number of individuals per selection habitat is sufficient to generate such asymmetry. Unpredictability of selection in structured populations leads to local genetic differentiation of reaction norms. The mean habitat of a subpopulation is defined as the subpopulation's focal habitat. The evolved mean reaction norm of each subpopulation is anchored at the optimum genotypic value in its focal habitat. Linear reaction norms are parallel if the conditional distribution of adults around the focal habitats is the same for each subpopulation. Adult migration and absence of zygote dispersal represents the ultimate structured population, each habitat playing the role of focal habitat. Absence of zygote dispersal requires that the flow of individuals through the habitats is used instead of the habitats’ frequencies in the prediction of the evolved reaction norm. Adult migration in absence of zygote dispersal leads to an evolved pattern of locally differentiated reaction norms with optimum genotypic value anchored in the focal habitat and, for linear reaction norms, parallel slopes.     

Increased coupling between subpopulations in a spatially structured environment can lead to population outbreaks

Destruction and fragmentation of habitats is widely considered as a major threat to biological diversity. A theoretical framework aimed at understanding and predicting species responses to these destructive processes is still lacking, however. In this paper, the species dynamics in a spatially structured, two-habitat, patchy environment is considered subject to changes in individual migration intensity, i.e. coupling between the habitats. The subpopulation dynamics inside each habitat is assumed to be bistable but with different parameter values. By using space-discrete/continuous metapopulation dynamic models and computer simulations, we show that there can be two principally different regimes of metapopulation dynamics. With increasing intensity in the interplay between subpopulations, the total abundance can either gradually decrease or experience a sudden burst-like increase. This result is shown to be robust to the choice of mathematical models (discrete or continuous). Particularly, both the "self-excitation" and "self-inhibition" regimes of the metapopulation system are robust to variation in habitat size; however, when one of the habitats is much smaller than the other, the "self-excitation" regime can give way to the "self-inhibition" regime and vice versa.     

Adaptive evolution in a spatially structured asexual population

We study the process of adaptation in a spatially structured asexual haploid population. The model assumes a local competition for replication, where each organism interacts only with its nearest neighbors. We observe that the substitution rate of beneficial mutations is smaller for a spatially structured population than that seen for populations without structure. The difference between structured and unstructured populations increases as the adaptive mutation rate increases. Furthermore, the substitution rate decreases as the number of neighbors for local competition is reduced. We have also studied the impact of structure on the distribution of adaptive mutations that fix during adaptation.     

Variance and covariance of homozygosity in a structured population

The variance of homozygosity for a K-allele model with n partially isolated subpopulations is derived numerically using identity coefficients. The variance of homozygosity within a subpopulation is shown to depend strongly upon the migration rates between subpopulations but is not strongly influenced by the number of alleles possible at a locus. The variance of homozygosity within a subpopulation, given the value of expected homozygosity, is approximately equal to the value of the variance of homozygosity given by Stewart's formula for a single population. If the population is presumed to be panmictic, but is actually subdivided, and the gametes are sampled at random from the total population, the apparent variance of homozygosity depends on the number of alleles possible. With small migration rates and K large, the apparent variance of homozygosity is much smaller than in a single population with the same expected homozygosity. However, when K is small, the variance of homozygosity is approximately given by Stewart's formula. The transient behavior of the variance of homozygosity shows that a large number of generations may be required to approach equilibrium values.     

The maintenance of sexual reproduction in a structured population

We present the results of a computer simulation model in which a sexual population produces an asexual mutant. We estimate the probability that the new asexual lineage will go extinct. We find that whenever the asexual lineage does not go extinct the sexual population is out-competed, and only asexual individuals remain after a sufficiently long period of time has elapsed. We call this type of outcome an asexual takeover. Our results suggest that, given repeated mutations to asexuality, asexual takeover is likely in an unstructured environment. However, if the environment is subdivided into demes that are connected by migration, then asexual takeover becomes less likely. The probability of asexual takeover declines towards zero as the number of demes increases and as the rate of migration decreases. The reason for this is that asexuality leads to a greater loss of fitness due to mutation and genetic drift, in comparison to what occurs under sexual reproduction. Population subdivision slows the spread of asexual lineages, which allows more time for the genetic degeneration caused by asexuality to take place.     

Complex transition to cooperative behavior in a structured population model

Cooperation plays an important role in the evolution of species and human societies. The understanding of the emergence and persistence of cooperation in those systems is a fascinating and fundamental question. Many mechanisms were extensively studied and proposed as supporting cooperation. The current work addresses the role of migration for the maintenance of cooperation in structured populations. This problem is investigated in an evolutionary perspective through the prisoner's dilemma game paradigm. It is found that migration and structure play an essential role in the evolution of the cooperative behavior. The possible outcomes of the model are extinction of the entire population, dominance of the cooperative strategy and coexistence between cooperators and defectors. The coexistence phase is obtained in the range of large migration rates. It is also verified the existence of a critical level of structuring beyond that cooperation is always likely. In resume, we conclude that the increase in the number of demes as well as in the migration rate favor the fixation of the cooperative behavior.     

Factors influencing the optimum sex ratio in a structured population

W. D. Hamilton (1967, Science 156, 477-488) calculated the optimum sex-ratio strategy for a population subdivided into local mating groups. He made three important assumptions: that the females founding each group responded precisely to the number of them initiating the group; that ail broods within a group matured synchronously; and that males were incapable of dispersing between groups. We have examined the effects of relaxing each of these assumptions and obtained the following results: (1) When broods mature asynchronously the optimum sex ratio is considerably more female biased than the Hamiltonian prediction. (2) Increasing male dispersal always decreases the optimum female bias to the sex ratio, but it is of particular interest that when moderate levels of dispersal are coupled with asynchrony of brood maturation then the optimum strategy is relatively insensitive to changes in foundress number. (3) When females cannot precisely determine the number of other foundresses initiating the group then the optimum strategy is almost exactly the strategy appropriate to a group of average size. These effects can be most easily understood in terms of local parental control (LPC) of the sex ratio. Through LPC a founding female can alter the mating success of her sons by altering the sex ratio of her brood. Asynchrony in the maturation of broods within a group increases the control that a founding female has over the mating success of her sons, whereas male dispersal reduces it. We have shown that the role of LPC and the role of inbreeding, which favors a female-biased sex ratio in haploidiploid species, are independent and that their effects can be combined into a single general formula r = (1-(r2/z2) E(alpha z/alpha r]/(1 + I). The concept of LPC can also be used to interpret two factors which have been proposed to select for the Hamiltonian sex ratios: local mate competition is LPC acting through sons; and sib mating is LPC acting through daughters.     

The spread and persistence of infectious diseases in structured populations

A basic assumption of many epidemic models is that populations are composed of a homogeneous group of randomly mixing individuals. This is not a realistic assumption. Most actual populations are divided into a number of subpopulations, within which there may be relatively random mixing, but among which there is nonrandom mixing. As a consequence of the structuring of the population, there are several sources of heterogeneity within populations that can affect the course of an infection through the population. Two of these sources of heterogeneity are differences in contact number between subpopulations, and differences in the patterns of contact among subpopulations. A model for the spread of a disease in such a population is described. The model considers two levels of interaction: interactions between individuals within a subpopulation because of geographic proximity, and interactions between individuals of the same or different subpopulations because of attendance at common social functions. Because of this structure, it is possible to analyze with the model both heterogeneity in contact number and variation in the patterns of contact. A stability analysis of the model is presented which shows that there is a unique threshold for disease maintenance. Below the threshold the disease goes extinct, and the equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold, the extinction equilibrium is unstable, and there is a unique endemic equilibrium. The analysis presents a sufficient condition for disease maintenance, which determines critical subpopulation sizes above which the disease cannot go extinct. The condition is a simple inequality relating the removal rate of infectives to the infection rate of susceptibles. In addition, bounds on the actual threshold and the effect of symmetry in the interaction matrix on the threshold are presented.     

Travelling wave dynamics and self-organization in a spatio-temporally structured population

We analyse spatial population dynamics showing that periodic or period-like chaotic dynamics produce self-organization structures, such as travelling waves. We suggest that self-organized patterns are associated with spatial synchrony patterns that often depend on geographical distance between subpopulations. The population dynamics also show statistical spatial autocorrelation patterns. We contrast our theoretical simulations with empirical data on annual damages in young sapling stands caused by voles. We conclude, on the basis of the periodicity, synchrony, and spatial autocorrelation patterns, and our simulation results, that vole dynamics represent travelling waves in population dynamics. We suggest that because such synchrony patterns are frequently observed in natural populations, spatial self-organization may be more common in population dynamics than reported in the literature.     

On the spread of epidemics in a closed heterogeneous population

Heterogeneity is an important property of any population experiencing a disease. Here we apply general methods of the theory of heterogeneous populations to the simplest mathematical models in epidemiology. In particular, an SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model is formulated and analyzed when susceptibility to or infectivity of a particular disease is distributed. It is shown that a heterogeneous model can be reduced to a homogeneous model with a nonlinear transmission function, which is given in explicit form. The widely used power transmission function is deduced from the model with distributed susceptibility and infectivity with the initial gamma-distribution of the disease parameters. Therefore, a mechanistic derivation of the phenomenological model, which is believed to mimic reality with high accuracy, is provided. The equation for the final size of an epidemic for an arbitrary initial distribution of susceptibility is found. The implications of population heterogeneity are discussed, in particular, it is pointed out that usual moment-closure methods can lead to erroneous conclusions if applied for the study of the long-term behavior of the models.     

Effective population size and population subdivision in demographically structured populations

A fast-timescale approximation is applied to the coalescent process in a single population, which is demographically structured by sex and/or age. This provides a general expression for the probability that a pair of alleles sampled from the population coalesce in the previous time interval. The effective population size is defined as the reciprocal of twice the product of generation time and the coalescence probability. Biologically explicit formulas for effective population size with discrete generations and separate sexes are derived for a variety of different modes of inheritance. The method is also applied to a nuclear gene in a population of partially self-fertilizing hermaphrodites. The effects of population subdivision on a demographically structured population are analyzed, using a matrix of net rates of movement of genes between different local populations. This involves weighting the migration probabilities of individuals of a given age/sex class by the contribution of this class to the leading left eigenvector of the matrix describing the movements of genes between age/sex classes. The effects of sex-specific migration and nonrandom distributions of offspring number on levels of genetic variability and among-population differentiation are described for different modes of inheritance in an island model. Data on DNA sequence variability in human and plant populations are discussed in the light of the results.     

The spread of exclusive mating in a chacma baboon population

Mating has progressively tended toward pair bonding in a chacma baboon (Papio cynocephalus ursinus) population during eight years of study. Both males and females have been mating with a smaller and smaller percentage of the potential mates available to them. Troop subdivision during the dry winter in the absence of predation was the original cause of mating limitation, but most members of winter subtroops only rarely mated with adults who had not belonged to the same winter subtroop during the summers as well. Following reintroduction of potential predation, both subtroop size and frequency decreased, but mating did not become less exclusive.     

A general structured model for a sequential hermaphrodite population

This paper introduces and analyzes a model of sequential hermaphroditism in the framework of continuously structured population models with sexual reproduction. The model is general in the sense that the birth, transition (from one sex to the other) and death processes of the population are given by arbitrary functions according to a biological meaningful hypotheses. The system is reduced to a single equation introducing the intrinsic sex-ratio subspace. The steady states are analyzed and illustrated for several cases. In particular, neglecting the competition for resources we have explicitly found a unique non-trivial equilibrium which is unstable.     

Impulsive culling of a structured population on two patches

We consider a model for a creature inhabiting two patches between which migration may occur. The creature is assumed to have a life cycle with two stages, namely juvenile and adult, giving rise to a delay differential system. The creature could represent an insect crop pest whilst the patches could represent neighbouring farms. Given that it is common to control crop pests by adult impulsive culling, we impose an adult impulsive culling regime on each patch. We find conditions on the regimes such that the pest will be eradicated on both patches simultaneously. The regime on one patch is assumed to be independent of the regime on the other patch to reflect the possibility that the patches represent farms with different owners where each owner has autonomy in their pest control decisions. In the special case where the birth functions on both patches are of an Allee type, we calculate explicit finite upper bounds for the number of culls needed on each patch to guarantee eradication. Simulations corroborate our theoretical results.     

Harvesting in a resource dependent age structured Leslie type population model

We analyse the effect of harvesting in a resource dependent age structured population model, deriving the conditions for the existence of a stable steady state as a function of fertility coefficients, harvesting mortality and carrying capacity of the resources. Under the effect of proportional harvest, we give a sufficient condition for a population to extinguish, and we show that the magnitude of proportional harvest depends on the resources available to the population. We show that the harvesting yield can be periodic, quasi-periodic or chaotic, depending on the dynamics of the harvested population. For populations with large fertility numbers, small harvesting mortality leads to abrupt extinction, but larger harvesting mortality leads to controlled population numbers by avoiding over consumption of resources. Harvesting can be a strategy in order to stabilise periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations in the number of individuals of a population.     

Genetic variation versus recombination rate in a structured population of mice

The correlation between genetic variation and recombination rate was investigated in a structured mouse population. Nucleotide sequence data from 19 autosomal DNA loci from eight inbred strains of mouse (Mus musculus) sampled from three major subspecies were analyzed. The recombination rate was estimated from the comparison of genetic and physical map distances between markers flanking a 10-cM region of each locus. The strains were categorized into four groups (subpopulations) based on geography. By partitioning the genetic diversity into within-group and among-group variation, we detected a positive correlation between the recombination rate and nucleotide diversity within groups. The level of nucleotide differentiation among groups (G(ST)) showed a negative correlation with the rate of recombination. There was no significant correlation between recombination rate and nucleotide diversity when data from different subpopulations were pooled. No correlation was detected between recombination rate and nucleotide divergence of M. musculus and M. spicilegus. These patterns deviate from the strict neutral expectation under the constant nucleotide substitution rate, and they are likely to have been formed either by a hitchhiking effect of positively selected mutants or by background selection of deleterious mutants occurring in a subdivided population. Our series of comparisons show that because a real population always has some structure, incorporation of its information is important in detecting non-neutral evolution.