An empirical study of the evolution of virulence under both horizontal and vertical transmission

According to current thinking, a parasite's transmission mode will be a major determinant of virulence, defined as the harm induced by parasites to their hosts. With horizontal transmission, virulence will increase as a byproduct of a trade-off between fitness gained through increased among-host transmission (infectivity) and fitness lost through increased virulence. With vertical transmission, virulence will decrease because a parasite's reproductive potential will be maximized only by decreasing harm to the host, allowing parasite transmission to more host offspring. To test both predictions, we transmitted barley stripe mosaic virus (BSMV) horizontally and then vertically in its host, barley (Hordeum vulgare). After four generations of horizontal transmission, we observed a nearly twofold increase in horizontal infectivity and nearly tripled virulence. After three generations of subsequent vertical transmission, we observed a modest (16%) increase in vertical transmissibility and a large (40%) reduction in virulence. Increased horizontal transmission is often due to increased pathogen replication which, in turn, causes increased virulence. However, we found no correlation between within-host virus concentration and virulence, indicating that the observed changes in virulence were not due to changes in viral titer. Finally, horizontally transmitted BSMV had reduced vertical transmission and vertically transmitted BSMV had reduced horizontal infectivity. These two observations suggest that, in nature, in different host populations with varying opportunities for horizontal and vertical transmission, different viral strains may be favored.     

Emergence of a convex trade-off between transmission and virulence

Most models of virulence evolution assume that a parasite cannot raise its transmission rate without causing more harm to its host. However, the existence of such trade-off relationships has recently been challenged. Here, we study how a trade-off can emerge from a model that explicitly incorporates within-host dynamics. We find that the existence and the convexity of the trade-off are robust, which implies a definite level of evolutionarily stable virulence (ESV) for the parasite. However, we also show that the dependence of the ESV on parameter values may be very strong. One possible consequence of this sensitivity is that relationships between transmission and virulence observed across populations need not conform to the patterns expected on the basis of a common (fixed) trade-off. We discuss possible experiments and implications of our results for the development of virulence management strategies.     

Experimental evaluation of the relationship between lethal or non-lethal virulence and transmission success in malaria parasite infections

Background  

Evolutionary theory suggests that the selection pressure on parasites to maximize their transmission determines their optimal host exploitation strategies and thus their virulence. Establishing the adaptive basis to parasite life history traits has important consequences for predicting parasite responses to public health interventions. In this study we examine the extent to which malaria parasites conform to the predicted adaptive trade-off between transmission and virulence, as defined by mortality. The majority of natural infections, however, result in sub-lethal virulent effects (e.g. anaemia) and are often composed of many strains. Both sub-lethal effects and pathogen population structure have been theoretically shown to have important consequences for virulence evolution. Thus, we additionally examine the relationship between anaemia and transmission in single and mixed clone infections.     

Trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission and the maintenance of a virulent plant pathogen

The continuum hypothesis predicts that parasites should evolve reduced virulence if they have higher opportunity for vertical transmission. However, when there is a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, selection may favor horizontal transmission and higher virulence. Atkinsonella hypoxylon is a fungal pathogen that reduces Danthonia fitness by 50% or more when it completely castrates hosts' chasmogamous inflorescences, despite the high opportunity for vertical transmission through cleistogamous seeds. Sporadically, infected hosts with partially castrated inflorescences (which have higher fecundity than completely castrated hosts) are observed in natural populations. Why are partially castrated plants rare if selection favors reduced virulence? We investigated whether there was genetic diversity for virulence among A. hypoxylon genotypes and the relationship between virulence and vertical transmission. We found that the fungal genotype significantly affects the occurrence of partial castration in Danthonia compressa. The proportion of seedlings that were vertically infected by their maternal plant was lower for partially castrated than for completely castrated plants. Our results demonstrate a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, explaining the maintenance of more virulent, completely castrating fungal genotypes in natural populations, and suggest that vertical transmission in plants is more complex than what is considered in current models.     

Evolution of acuteness in pathogen metapopulations: conflicts between “classical” and invasion-persistence trade-offs

Classical life-history theory predicts that acute, immunizing pathogens should maximize between-host transmission. When such pathogens induce violent epidemic outbreaks, however, a pathogen’s short-term advantage at invasion may come at the expense of its ability to persist in the population over the long term. Here, we seek to understand how the classical and invasion-persistence trade-offs interact to shape pathogen life-history evolution as a function of the size and structure of the host population. We develop an individual-based infection model at three distinct levels of organization: within an individual host, among hosts within a local population, and among local populations within a metapopulation. We find a continuum of evolutionarily stable pathogen strategies. At one end of the spectrum—in large well-mixed populations—pathogens evolve to greater acuteness to maximize between-host transmission: the classical trade-off theory applies in this regime. At the other end of the spectrum—when the host population is broken into many small patches—selection favors less acute pathogens, which persist longer within a patch and thereby achieve enhanced between-patch transmission: the invasion-persistence trade-off dominates in this regime. Between these extremes, we explore the effects of the size and structure of the host population in determining pathogen strategy. In general, pathogen strategies respond to evolutionary pressures arising at both scales.     

The virulence–transmission trade-off in vector-borne plant viruses: a review of (non-)existing studies

The adaptive hypothesis invoked to explain why parasites harm their hosts is known as the trade-off hypothesis, which states that increased parasite transmission comes at the cost of shorter infection duration. This correlation arises because both transmission and disease-induced mortality (i.e. virulence) are increasing functions of parasite within-host density. There is, however, a glaring lack of empirical data to support this hypothesis. Here, we review empirical investigations reporting to what extent within-host viral accumulation determines the transmission rate and the virulence of vector-borne plant viruses. Studies suggest that the correlation between within-plant viral accumulation and transmission rate of natural isolates is positive. Unfortunately, results on the correlation between viral accumulation and virulence are very scarce. We found only very few appropriate studies testing such a correlation, themselves limited by the fact that they use symptoms as a proxy for virulence and are based on very few viral genotypes. Overall, the available evidence does not allow us to confirm or refute the existence of a transmission–virulence trade-off for vector-borne plant viruses. We discuss the type of data that should be collected and how theoretical models can help us refine testable predictions of virulence evolution.     

Challenging the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence: is virulence management feasible?

Progress in understanding the evolution of infectious diseases has inspired proposals to manage the evolution of pathogen (including parasite) virulence. A common view is that social interventions that lower pathogen transmission will indirectly select lower virulence because of a trade-off between transmission and virulence. Here, we argue that there is little theoretical justification and no empirical evidence for this plan. Although a trade-off model might apply to some pathogens, the mechanism appears too weak for rapid selection of substantial changes in virulence. Direct selection against virulence itself might be a more rewarding approach to managing the evolution of virulence.     

Periodic host absence can select for higher or lower parasite transmission rates

This paper explores the effect of discontinuous periodic host absence on the evolution of pathogen transmission rates by using R ₀ maximisation techniques. The physiological consequence of an increased transmission rate can be either an increased virulence, i.e. there is a transmission-virulence trade-off or ii) a reduced between season survival, i.e. there is a transmission-survival trade-off. The results reveal that the type of trade-off determines the direction of selection, with relatively longer periods of host absence selecting for higher transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and virulence but lower transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and between season survival. The fact that for the transmission-virulence trade-off both trade-off parameters operate during host presence whereas for the transmission-survival trade-off one operates during host presence (transmission) and the other (survival) during the period of host absence is the main cause for this difference in selection direction. Moreover, the period of host absence seems to be the key determinant of the pathogen’s transmission rate. Comparing plant patho-systems with contrasting biological features suggests that airborne plant pathogens respond differently to longer periods of host absence than soil-borne plant pathogens.     

Virulence evolution in a virus obeys a trade-off

The evolution of virulence was studied in a virus subjected to alternating episodes of vertical and horizontal transmission. Bacteriophage f1 was used as the parasite because it establishes a debilitating but non-fatal infection that can be transmitted vertically (from a host to its progeny) as well as horizontally (infection of new hosts). Horizontal transmission was required of all phage at specific intervals, but was prevented otherwise. Each episode of horizontal transmission was followed by an interval of obligate vertical transmission, followed by an interval of obligate horizontal transmission etc. The duration of vertical transmission was eight times longer per episode in one treatment than in the other, thus varying the relative intensity of selection against virulence while maintaining selection for some level of virus production. Viral lines with the higher enforced rate of infectious transmission evolved higher virulence and higher rates of virus production. These results support the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence.     

Evolution of parasite virulence when host responses cause disease

The trade-off hypothesis of virulence evolution rests on the assumption that infection-induced mortality is a consequence of host exploitation by parasites. This hypothesis lies at the heart of many empirical and theoretical studies of virulence evolution, despite growing evidence that infection-induced mortality is very often a by-product of host immune responses. We extend the theoretical framework of the trade-off hypothesis to incorporate such immunopathology and explore how this detrimental aspect of host defence mechanisms affects the evolution of pathogen exploitation and hence infection-induced mortality. We argue that there are qualitatively different ways in which immunopathology can arise and suggest ways in which empirical studies can tease apart these effects. We show that immunopathology can cause infection-induced mortality to increase or decrease as a result of pathogen evolution, depending on how it covaries with pathogen exploitation strategies and with parasite killing by hosts. Immunopathology is thus an important determinant of whether public and animal health programmes will drive evolution in a clinically beneficial or detrimental direction. Immunopathology complicates our understanding of disease evolution, but can nevertheless be readily accounted for within the framework of the trade-off hypothesis.     

The role of trade-off shapes in the evolution of parasites in spatial host populations: an approximate analytical approach

Given the substantial changes in mixing in many populations, there is considerable interest in the role that spatial structure can play in the evolution of disease. Here we examine the role of different trade-off shapes in the evolution of parasites in a spatially structured host population where infection can occur locally or globally. We develop an approximate adaptive dynamic analytical approach, to examine how the evolutionarily stable (ES) virulence depends not only on the fraction of global infection/transmission but also on the shape of the trade-off between transmission and virulence. Our analysis can successfully predict the ES virulence found previously by simulation of the full system. The analysis confirms that when there is a linear trade-off between transmission and virulence spatial structure may lead to an ES virulence that increases as the proportion of global transmission increases. However, we also show that the ESS disappears above a threshold level of global infection, leading to maximization. In addition just below this threshold, there is the possibility of evolutionary bi-stabilities. When we assume the realistic trade-off between transmission and virulence that results in an ESS in the classical mixed model, we find that spatial structure can increase or decrease the ES virulence. A relatively high proportion of local infection reduces virulence but intermediate levels can select for higher virulence. Our work not only emphasizes the importance of spatial structure to the evolution of parasites, but also makes it clear that situations between the local and the global need to be considered. We also emphasize the key role that the shape of trade-offs plays in evolutionary outcomes.     

Loss of Competition in the Outside Host Environment Generates Outbreaks of Environmental Opportunist Pathogens

Environmentally transmitted pathogens face ecological interactions (e.g., competition, predation, parasitism) in the outside-host environment and host immune system during infection. Despite the ubiquitousness of environmental opportunist pathogens, traditional epidemiology focuses on obligatory pathogens incapable of environmental growth. Here we ask how competitive interactions in the outside-host environment affect the dynamics of an opportunist pathogen. We present a model coupling the classical SI and Lotka–Volterra competition models. In this model we compare a linear infectivity response and a sigmoidal infectivity response. An important assumption is that pathogen virulence is traded off with competitive ability in the environment. Removing this trade-off easily results in host extinction. The sigmoidal response is associated with catastrophic appearances of disease outbreaks when outside-host species richness, or overall competition pressure, decreases. This indicates that alleviating outside-host competition with antibacterial substances that also target the competitors can have unexpected outcomes by providing benefits for opportunist pathogens. These findings may help in developing alternative ways of controlling environmental opportunist pathogens.     

The acquisition of hypovirulence in host-pathogen systems with three trophic levels

A major focus of research on the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions has been the evolution of pathogen virulence, which is defined as the loss in host fitness due to infection. It is usually assumed that changes in pathogen virulence are the result of selection to increase pathogen fitness. However, in some cases, pathogens have acquired hypovirulence by themselves becoming infected with hyperparasites. For example, the chestnut blight fungus Cryphonectria parasitica has become hypovirulent in some areas by acquiring a double-stranded RNA hyperparasite that debilitates the pathogen, thereby reducing its virulence to the host. In this article, we develop and analyze a mathematical model of the dynamics of host-pathogen interactions with three trophic levels. The system may be dominated by either uninfected (virulent) or hyperparasitized (hypovirulent) pathogens, or by a mixture of the two. Hypovirulence may allow some recovery of the host population, but it can also harm the host population if the hyperparasite moves the transmission rate of the pathogen closer to its evolutionarily stable strategy. In the latter case, the hyperparasite is effectively a mutualist of the pathogen. Selection among hyperparasites will often minimize the deleterious effects, or maximize the beneficial effects, of the hyperparasite on the pathogen. Increasing the frequency of multiple infections of the same host individual promotes the acquisition of hypovirulence by increasing the opportunity for horizontal transmission of the hyperparasite. This effect opposes the usual theoretical expectation that multiple infections promote the evolution of more virulent pathogens via selection for rapid growth within hosts.     

Transmission-recovery trade-offs to study parasite evolution

Parasite evolution is mainly studied through a trade-off involving host death (i.e., virulence) and transmission. In addition to the lack of evidence, this trade-off largely fails to understand the evolution of sublethal parasite effects. Here, I argue that considering host recovery as a main selection pressure faced by the parasite helps to address these problems and opens new perspectives for the study of parasite evolution. Using an embedded model, I show how a trade-off between transmission and recovery may emerge from within-host dynamics if immune activation is assumed to depend on the parasite's overall growth rate. I also show that the value of the parasite's optimal growth rate strongly depends on the immunological state of the host. Transmission-recovery trade-offs are of particular interest to the study of the evolution of human pathogens because of the use of antipathogen treatments, which strengthens the recovery constraint.     

Lethal pathogens, non-lethal synergists and the evolutionary ecology of resistance

Mixed pathogenic infections are known to have profound effects on the ecological and evolutionary diversity of both hosts and parasites. Although a variety of mechanisms have been proposed by which hosts can withstand parasitic infections, the role of multiple infections and the trade-off in multiple defence strategies remain relatively unexplored. We develop a stage-structured host-pathogen model to explore the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of host resistance to different modes of infection. In particular, we investigate how the evolution of resistance is influenced through infection by a lethal pathogen and a non-lethal synergist (that only acts to enhance the infectivity of the pathogen). We extend our theoretical framework to explore how trade-offs in the ability to withstand infection by the lethal pathogen and the ability to tolerate the synergist affect the likelihood of coexistence and the evolution of polymorphic host strategies. We show how the underlying structure of the trade-off surface is crucial in the maintenance of resistance polymorphisms. Further, depending on the shape of the trade-off surface, we predict that different levels of host resistance will show individual responses to the presence of non-lethal synergists. Our results are discussed in the wider context of recent developments in understanding the evolution of resistance to pathogen infections and resistance management.     

Trade-offs in the evolution of virulence in an indirectly transmitted macroparasite

The adaptive trade-off theory for the evolution and maintenance of parasite virulence requires that virulence be genetically correlated with other fitness characteristics of the parasite. Many theoretical models rely on a positive correlation between virulence and transmissibility. They assume that high parasite replication rates are associated with a high probability of transmission (and, hence, increased parasite fitness), but also with high levels of damage to the host (high virulence). Schistosomes are macroparasites with an indirect life cycle involving a mammalian and a molluscan host. Here we demonstrate, through the development of five substrains, a genetic basis for schistosome virulence. We used these substrains further in order to investigate the presence of parasite fitness traits that were genetically correlated with virulence. High virulence in the (mouse) definitive host was, as predicted, positively correlated with parasite replication. In contrast, in the (snail) intermediate host high virulence was associated with low parasite replication rates. Variation in infectivity to and parasite replication in the definitive host was suggested as a compensating mechanism for the maintenance of virulence in the snail host. This is the first report of a trade-off in parasite reproductive success across hosts in an indirectly transmitted macroparasite.     

The curse of the pharaoh in space: free-living infectious stages and the evolution of virulence in spatially explicit populations

The idea that parasites with long-lived infective stages may evolve higher virulence has received considerable attention. This idea is called 'the curse of the pharaoh' because of the hypothesis that the death of Lord Carnavon was caused by very long-lived propagules of a highly virulent infectious disease. Here, we examined the evolution of diseases that transmit via free-living stages in a spatial context. We show that, if virulence evolves independently of transmission, long-lived infective stages can select for higher virulence. There is always the evolution of a finite transmission rate, which becomes higher when the infective stages are shorter lived. When a trade-off occurs between transmission and virulence, we show that there is no evidence for the curse of the pharaoh. Indeed, higher transmission and therefore virulence may be selected for by shorter rather than long-lived infective stages.     

Virulence in malaria: an evolutionary viewpoint

Malaria parasites cause much morbidity and mortality to their human hosts. From our evolutionary perspective, this is because virulence is positively associated with parasite transmission rate. Natural selection therefore drives virulence upwards, but only to the point where the cost to transmission caused by host death begins to outweigh the transmission benefits. In this review, we summarize data from the laboratory rodent malaria model, Plasmodium chabaudi, and field data on the human malaria parasite, P. falciparum, in relation to this virulence trade-off hypothesis. The data from both species show strong positive correlations between asexual multiplication, transmission rate, infection length, morbidity and mortality, and therefore support the underlying assumptions of the hypothesis. Moreover, the P. falciparum data show that expected total lifetime transmission of the parasite is maximized in young children in whom the fitness cost of host mortality balances the fitness benefits of higher transmission rates and slower clearance rates, thus exhibiting the hypothesized virulence trade-off. This evolutionary explanation of virulence appears to accord well with the clinical and molecular explanations of pathogenesis that involve cytoadherence, red cell invasion and immune evasion, although direct evidence of the fitness advantages of these mechanisms is scarce. One implication of this evolutionary view of virulence is that parasite populations are expected to evolve new levels of virulence in response to medical interventions such as vaccines and drugs.     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Infection intensity and infectivity of the tick-borne pathogen Borrelia afzelii

The 'trade-off' hypothesis for virulence evolution assumes that between-host transmission rate is a positive and saturating function of pathogen exploitation and virulence, but there are as yet few tests of this assumption, in particular for vector-borne pathogens. Here, I show that the infectivity (probability of transmission) of the tick-borne bacterium Borrelia afzelii from two of its natural rodent hosts (bank vole and yellow-necked mouse) to its main tick vector increases asymptotically with increasing exploitation (measured as bacterial load in skin biopsies). Hence, this result provides support for one of the basic assumptions of the 'trade-off hypothesis'. Moreover, there was no difference in infectivity between bank voles and yellow-necked mice despite bacterial loads being on average an order of magnitude higher in bank voles, most likely because ticks took larger blood meals from mice. This shows that interspecific variation in host resistance does not necessarily translate into a difference in infectivity.