Assessment of running waters (Slovakia) using benthic macroinvertebrates — derivation of ecological quality classes with respect to altitudinal gradients

A method is presented for defining the five classes of ecological quality based on a multimetric index (MMI) of macroinvertebrates, as required for implementation of the Water Framework Directive for small (catchment area 10–100 km²), medium (101–1000 km²) and large (> 1000 km²) streams. Our method (expert judgment) allows us to overcome an absence of reference sites for some stream types. The key was selection of suitable metrics for all stream types. The whole procedure was divided into two parts. 1. Small streams with reference sites: suitable metrics were selected according to their ability to distinguish reference and monitoring sites — SI, Oligo [%], BMWP, RhiTI, Rheoindex, IBCR, % Aka+Lit+Psa [%] and EPT. Here the high-good boundary value was set as the 25^th (for metrics decreasing with increasing pollution) or 75^th percentile (for metrics increasing with increasing pollution). 2. Medium and large streams which lack reference sites: here the idea was applied that some metrics, the values of which change along an altitudinal gradient, also react to anthropogenic stress — SI, Oligo [%], BMWP, [%] metarhithral, RhiTI, Aka+Lit+Psa [%] and EPT for both medium and large streams with, in addition, IBCR and NFam for medium streams. This assumption was supported by regression analysis of altitude and metrics from small streams. Not all the metrics were related to altitude but metrics with a good ability to separate reference and monitoring sites did show a significant relationship to altitude. The boundary between high and good class for medium and large streams was set as the 95^th or 5^th percentiles.     

Temporal Patterns in Seawater Quality from Dredging in Tropical Environments

Maintenance and capital dredging represents a potential risk to tropical environments, especially in turbidity-sensitive environments such as coral reefs. There is little detailed, published observational time-series data that quantifies how dredging affects seawater quality conditions temporally and spatially. This information is needed to test realistic exposure scenarios to better understand the seawater-quality implications of dredging and ultimately to better predict and manage impacts of future projects. Using data from three recent major capital dredging programs in North Western Australia, the extent and duration of natural (baseline) and dredging-related turbidity events are described over periods ranging from hours to weeks. Very close to dredging i.e. <500 m distance, a characteristic features of these particular case studies was high temporal variability. Over several hours suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) can range from 100–500 mg L-1. Less turbid conditions (10–80 mg L-1) can persist over several days but over longer periods (weeks to months) averages were <10 mg L-1. During turbidity events all benthic light was sometimes extinguished, even in the shallow reefal environment, however a much more common feature was very low light ‘caliginous’ or daytime twilight periods. Compared to pre-dredging conditions, dredging increased the intensity, duration and frequency of the turbidity events by 10-, 5- and 3-fold respectively (at sites <500 m from dredging). However, when averaged across the entire dredging period of 80–180 weeks, turbidity values only increased by 2–3 fold above pre-dredging levels. Similarly, the upper percentile values (e.g., P99, P95) of seawater quality parameters can be highly elevated over short periods, but converge to values only marginally above baseline states over longer periods. Dredging in these studies altered the overall probability density distribution, increasing the frequency of extreme values. As such, attempts to understand the potential biological impacts must consider impacts across telescoping-time frames and changes to extreme conditions in addition to comparing central tendency (mean/median). An analysis technique to capture the entire range of likely conditions over time-frames from hours to weeks is described using a running means/percentile approach.     

Severe Obesity and Cardiometabolic Risk in Children: Comparison from Two International Classification Systems

Objectives

There is no agreed-upon definition for severe obesity (Sev-OB) in children. We compared estimates of Sev-OB as defined by different cut-points of body mass index (BMI) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) curves and the ability of each set of cut-points to screen for the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.

Research Design and Methods

Cross-sectional, multicenter study involving 3,340 overweight/obese young subjects. Sev-OB was defined as BMI ≥99^th percentile or ≥1.2 times the 95^th percentile of the CDC or the WHO curves. High blood pressure, hypertriglyceridemia, low High Density Lipoprotein -cholesterol and impaired fasting glucose were considered as cardiometabolic risk factors.

Results

The estimated prevalence of Sev-OB varied widely between the two reference systems. Either using the cut-point ≥99^th percentile or ≥1.2 times the 95^th percentile, less children were defined as Sev-OB by CDC than WHO (46.8 vs. 89.5%, and 63.3 vs. 80.4%, respectively p<0.001). The CDC 99^th percentile had lower sensitivity (58.5 vs 94.2), higher specificity (57.6 vs 12.3) and higher positive predictive value (34.4 vs 28.9) than WHO in identifying obese children with ≥2 cardiometabolic risk factors. These differences were mitigated using the 1.2 times the 95^th percentile (sensitivity 73.9 vs. 88.1; specificity 40.7 vs. 22.5; positive predictive value 32.1 vs. 30.1). Substantial agreement between growth curves was found using the 1.2 times the 95^th percentile, in particular in children ≤10 years.

Conclusions

Estimates of Sev-OB and cardiometabolic risk as defined by different cut-points of BMI are influenced from the reference systems used. The 1.2 times the 95^th percentile of BMI of either CDC or WHO standard has a discriminatory advantage over the 99^th percentile for identifying severely obese children at increased cardiometabolic risk, particularly under 10 years of age.     

Cerebrospinal fluid glucose and lactate: age-specific reference values and implications for clinical practice

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis is an important tool in the diagnostic work-up of many neurological disorders, but reference ranges for CSF glucose, CSF/plasma glucose ratio and CSF lactate based on studies with large numbers of CSF samples are not available. Our aim was to define age-specific reference values. In 1993 The Nijmegen Observational CSF Study was started. Results of all CSF samples that were analyzed between 1993 and 2008 at our laboratory were systematically collected and stored in our computerized database. After exclusion of CSF samples with an unknown or elevated erythrocyte count, an elevated leucocyte count, elevated concentrations of bilirubin, free hemoglobin, or total protein 9,036 CSF samples were further studied for CSF glucose (n = 8,871), CSF/plasma glucose ratio (n = 4,516) and CSF lactate values (n = 7,614). CSF glucose, CSF/plasma glucose ratio and CSF lactate were age-, but not sex dependent. Age-specific reference ranges were defined as 5–95^th percentile ranges. CSF glucose 5^th percentile values ranged from 1.8 to 2.9 mmol/L and 95^th percentile values from 3.8 to 5.6 mmol/L. CSF/plasma glucose ratio 5^th percentile values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53 and 95^th percentile values from 0.82 to 1.19. CSF lactate 5^th percentile values ranged from 0.88 to 1.41 mmol/L and 95^th percentile values from 2.00 to 2.71 mmol/L. Reference ranges for all three parameters were widest in neonates and narrowest in toddlers, with lower and upper limits increasing with age. These reference values allow a reliable interpretation of CSF results in everyday clinical practice. Furthermore, hypoglycemia was associated with an increased CSF/plasma glucose ratio, whereas hyperglycemia did not affect the CSF/plasma glucose ratio.     

The Environmental Impact of Cambodia's Ancient City of Mahendraparvata (Phnom Kulen)

The Khmer kingdom, whose capital was at Angkor from the 9^th to the 14^th-15^th century, was founded in 802 by king Jayavarman II in a city called Mahandraparvata, on Phnom Kulen. Virtually nothing more is known of Mahandraparvata from the epigraphic sources, but systematic archaeological survey and excavation have identified an array of cultural features that point to a more extensive and enduring settlement than the historical record indicates. Recent remote sensing data have revolutionized our view, revealing the remains of a city with a complex and spatially extensive network of urban infrastructure. Here, we present a record of vegetation change and soil erosion from within that urban network, dating from the 8^th century CE. Our findings indicate approximately 400 years of intensive land use, punctuated by discrete periods of intense erosion beginning in the mid 9^th century and ending in the late 11^th century. A marked change in water management practices is apparent from the 12^th century CE, with implications for water supply to Angkor itself. This is the first indication that settlement on Mahendraparvata was not only extensive, but also intensive and enduring, with a marked environmental impact.     

Optimal Skin-to-Stone Distance Is a Positive Predictor for Successful Outcomes in Upper Ureter Calculi following Extracorporeal Shock Wave Lithotripsy: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Objectives

To investigate whether skin-to-stone distance (SSD), which remains controversial in patients with ureter stones, can be a predicting factor for one session success following extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) in patients with upper ureter stones.

Patients and Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 1,519 patients who underwent their first ESWL between January 2005 and December 2013. Among these patients, 492 had upper ureter stones that measured 4–20 mm and were eligible for our analyses. Maximal stone length, mean stone density (HU), and SSD were determined on pretreatment non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT). For subgroup analyses, patients were divided into four groups. Group 1 consisted of patients with SSD<25^th percentile, group 2 consisted of patients with SSD in the 25^th to 50^th percentile, group 3 patients had SSD in the 50^th to 75^th percentile, and group 4 patients had SSD≥75^th percentile.

Results

In analyses of group 2 patients versus others, there were no statistical differences in mean age, stone length and density. However, the one session success rate in group 2 was higher than other groups (77.9% vs. 67.0%; P = 0.032). The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that shorter stone length, lower stone density, and the group 2 SSD were positive predictors for successful outcomes in ESWL. Using the Bayesian model-averaging approach, longer stone length, lower stone density, and group 2 SSD can be also positive predictors for successful outcomes following ESWL.

Conclusions

Our data indicate that a group 2 SSD of approximately 10 cm is a positive predictor for success following ESWL.     

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) System: Meningitis in Burkina Faso

Background

Effective surveillance for infectious diseases is an essential component of public health. There are few studies estimating the cost-effectiveness of starting or improving disease surveillance. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy in Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To assess the impact of the IDSR in Africa, we used pre- and post- IDSR meningococcal meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso (1996–2002 and 2003–2007). IDSR implementation was correlated with a median reduction of 2 weeks to peak of outbreaks (25^th percentile 1 week; 75^th percentile 4 weeks). IDSR was also correlated with a reduction of 43 meningitis cases per 100,000 (25^th–40: 75^th-129). Assuming the correlations between reductions in time to peak of outbreaks and cases are related, the cost-effectiveness of IDSR was $23 per case averted (25^th-$30; 75^th - cost saving), and $98 per meningitis-related death averted (25^th-$140: 75^th – cost saving).

Conclusions/Significance

We cannot absolutely claim that the measured differences were due to IDSR. We believe, however, that it is reasonable to claim that IDSR can improve the cost-effectiveness of public health surveillance.     

Visual vs Fully Automatic Histogram-Based Assessment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) Progression Using Sequential Multidetector Computed Tomography (MDCT)

Objectives

To describe changes over time in extent of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) at multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) assessed by semi-quantitative visual scores (VSs) and fully automatic histogram-based quantitative evaluation and to test the relationship between these two methods of quantification.

Methods

Forty IPF patients (median age: 70 y, interquartile: 62-75 years; M:F, 33:7) that underwent 2 MDCT at different time points with a median interval of 13 months (interquartile: 10-17 months) were retrospectively evaluated. In-house software YACTA quantified automatically lung density histogram (10^th-90^th percentile in 5^th percentile steps). Longitudinal changes in VSs and in the percentiles of attenuation histogram were obtained in 20 untreated patients and 20 patients treated with pirfenidone. Pearson correlation analysis was used to test the relationship between VSs and selected percentiles.

Results

In follow-up MDCT, visual overall extent of parenchymal abnormalities (OE) increased in median by 5 %/year (interquartile: 0 %/y; +11 %/y). Substantial difference was found between treated and untreated patients in HU changes of the 40th and of the 80th percentiles of density histogram. Correlation analysis between VSs and selected percentiles showed higher correlation between the changes (Δ) in OE and Δ 40^th percentile (r=0.69; p<0.001) as compared to Δ 80^th percentile (r=0.58; p<0.001); closer correlation was found between Δ ground-glass extent and Δ 40^th percentile (r=0.66, p<0.001) as compared to Δ 80^th percentile (r=0.47, p=0.002), while the Δ reticulations correlated better with the Δ 80^th percentile (r=0.56, p<0.001) in comparison to Δ 40^th percentile (r=0.43, p=0.003).

Conclusions

There is a relevant and fully automatically measurable difference at MDCT in VSs and in histogram analysis at one year follow-up of IPF patients, whether treated or untreated: Δ 40^th percentile might reflect the change in overall extent of lung abnormalities, notably of ground-glass pattern; furthermore Δ 80^th percentile might reveal the course of reticular opacities.     

Systematic Examination of Infant Size and Growth Metrics as Risk Factors for Overweight in Young Adulthood

Objective

To systematically examine infant size and growth, according to the 2006 WHO infant growth standards, as risk factors for overweight status in young adulthood in a historical cohort. Specifically, to assess: Whether accounting for length (weight-for-length) provides a different picture of risk than weight-for-age, intervals of rapid growth in both weight-for-age and weight-for-length metrics, and what particular target ages for infant size and intervals of rapid growth associate most strongly with overweight as a young adult.

Patients/Methods

Data analysis of 422 appropriate for gestational age white singleton infants enrolled in the Fels Longitudinal Study. Odds ratios (OR) for overweight and obesity in young adulthood (age 20–29) were calculated using logistic regression models for the metrics at each target age (0, 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 months) comparing ≥85^th v. <85^th percentile, as well as rapid growth (Δ≥0.67 Z-score) through target age intervals. Models accounted for both maternal and paternal BMI.

Results

Infants ≥85^th percentile of weight-for-age at each target age (except 3 months) had a greater odds of being overweight as a young adult. After accounting for length (weight-for-length) this association was limited to 12, and 18 months. Rapid weight-for-age growth was infrequently associated with overweight as a young adult. Rapid weight-for-length growth from 0 to 24 months, 1 to 6, 9, 12, 18, and 24 months and from 3 to 9, 12, 18, and 24 months was strongly associated with overweight status as a young adult.

Conclusions

The WHO weight-for-length metric associates differently with risk of being overweight as a young adult compared to weight-for-age. Intervals of rapid weight-for-length growth ranging from months (0–24), (1–12, 18, and 24) and (3–9, and 12) displayed the largest OR for being overweight as a young adult.     

Systematic Monitoring of Male Circumcision Scale-Up in Nyanza,Kenya: Exploratory Factor Analysis of Service Quality Instrument and Performance Ranking

Background

Considerable conceptual and operational complexities related to service quality measurements and variability in delivery contexts of scaled-up medical male circumcision, pose real challenges to monitoring implementation of quality and safety. Clarifying latent factors of the quality instruments can enhance contextual applicability and the likelihood that observed service outcomes are appropriately assessed.

Objective

To explore factors underlying SYMMACS service quality assessment tool (adopted from the WHO VMMC quality toolkit) and; determine service quality performance using composite quality index derived from the latent factors.

Study design

Using a comparative process evaluation of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up in Kenya site level data was collected among health facilities providing VMMC over two years. Systematic Monitoring of the Medical Male Circumcision Scale-Up quality instrument was used to assess availability of guidelines, supplies and equipment, infection control, and continuity of care services. Exploratory factor analysis was performed to clarify quality structure.

Results

Fifty four items and 246 responses were analyzed. Based on Eigenvalue >1.00 cut-off, factors 1, 2 & 3 were retained each respectively having eigenvalues of 5.78; 4.29; 2.99. These cumulatively accounted for 29.1% of the total variance (12.9%; 9.5%; 6.7%) with final communality estimates being 13.06. Using a cut-off factor loading value of ≥0.4, fifteen items loading on factor 1, five on factor 2 and one on factor 3 were retained. Factor 1closely relates to preparedness to deliver safe male circumcisions while factor two depicts skilled task performance and compliance with protocols. Of the 28 facilities, 32% attained between 90^th and 95^th percentile (excellent); 45% between 50^th and 75^th percentiles (average) and 14.3% below 25^th percentile (poor).

Conclusion

the service quality assessment instrument may be simplified to have nearly 20 items that relate more closely to service outcomes. Ranking of facilities and circumcision procedure using a composite index based on these items indicates that majority performed above average.     

Thresholds in seascape connectivity: the spatial arrangement of nursery habitats structure fish communities on nearby reefs

Ecosystems are linked by the movement of organisms across habitat boundaries and the arrangement of habitat patches can affect species abundance and composition. In tropical seascapes many coral reef fishes settle in adjacent habitats and undergo ontogenetic habitat shifts to coral reefs as they grow. Few studies have attempted to measure at what distances from nursery habitats these fish migrations (connectivity) cease to exist and how the abundance, biomass and proportion of nursery species change on coral reefs along distance gradients away from nursery areas. The present study examines seascape spatial arrangement, including distances between habitats, and its consequences on connectivity within a tropical seascape in Mozambique using a seascape ecology approach. Fish and habitat surveys were undertaken in 2016/2017 and a thematic habitat map was created in ArcGIS, where cover and distances between habitat patches were calculated. Distance to mangroves and seagrasses were significant predictors for abundance and biomass of most nursery species. The proportions of nursery species were highest in the south of the archipelago, where mangroves were present and decreased with distance to nurseries (mangroves and seagrasses). Some nursery species were absent on reef sites farthest from nursery habitats, at 80 km from mangroves and at 12 km from seagrass habitats. The proportion of nursery/non-nursery snapper and parrotfish species, as well as abundance and biomass of seagrass nursery species abruptly declined at 8 km from seagrass habitats, indicating a threshold distance at which migrations may cease. Additionally, reefs isolated by large stretches of sand and deep water had very low abundances of several nursery species despite being within moderate distances from nursery habitats. This highlights the importance of considering the matrix (sand and deep water) as barriers for fish migration.     

Quantile-specific penetrance of genes affecting lipoproteins, adiposity and height

Quantile-dependent penetrance is proposed to occur when the phenotypic expression of a SNP depends upon the population percentile of the phenotype. To illustrate the phenomenon, quantiles of height, body mass index (BMI), and plasma lipids and lipoproteins were compared to genetic risk scores (GRS) derived from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP)s having established genome-wide significance: 180 SNPs for height, 32 for BMI, 37 for low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol, 47 for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, 52 for total cholesterol, and 31 for triglycerides in 1930 subjects. Both phenotypes and GRSs were adjusted for sex, age, study, and smoking status. Quantile regression showed that the slope of the genotype-phenotype relationships increased with the percentile of BMI (P = 0.002), LDL-cholesterol (P = 3×10⁻⁸), HDL-cholesterol (P = 5×10⁻⁶), total cholesterol (P = 2.5×10⁻⁶), and triglyceride distribution (P = 7.5×10⁻⁶), but not height (P = 0.09). Compared to a GRS''s phenotypic effect at the 10^th population percentile, its effect at the 90^th percentile was 4.2-fold greater for BMI, 4.9-fold greater for LDL-cholesterol, 1.9-fold greater for HDL-cholesterol, 3.1-fold greater for total cholesterol, and 3.3-fold greater for triglycerides. Moreover, the effect of the rs1558902 (FTO) risk allele was 6.7-fold greater at the 90^th than the 10^th percentile of the BMI distribution, and that of the rs3764261 (CETP) risk allele was 2.4-fold greater at the 90^th than the 10^th percentile of the HDL-cholesterol distribution. Conceptually, it maybe useful to distinguish environmental effects on the phenotype that in turn alters a gene''s phenotypic expression (quantile-dependent penetrance) from environmental effects affecting the gene''s phenotypic expression directly (gene-environment interaction).     

Quantitative CT Analysis of Pulmonary Ground-Glass Opacity Nodules for the Distinction of Invasive Adenocarcinoma from Pre-Invasive or Minimally Invasive Adenocarcinoma

Objectives

We aimed to analyze the CT findings of ground-glass opacity nodules diagnosed pathologically as adenocarcinoma in situ (AIS), minimally invasive adenocarcinoma (MIA), and invasive adenocarcinoma in order to investigate whether quantitative CT parameters enable distinction of invasive adenocarcinoma from pre-invasive or minimally invasive adenocarcinoma.

Methods

We reviewed CT images and pathologic specimens from 191 resected ground-glass opacity nodules with little or no solid component at CT. Nodule size, volume, density, mass, skewness/kurtosis, and CT attenuation values at the 2.5^th–97.5^th percentiles on histogram, and texture parameters (uniformity and entropy) were assessed from CT datasets.

Results

Of 191 tumors, 38 were AISs (20%), 61 were MIAs (32%), and 92 (48%) were invasive adenocarcinomas. Multivariate logistic regression analysis helped identify the 75^th percentile CT attenuation value (P = 0.04) and entropy (P<0.01) as independent predictors for invasive adenocarcinoma, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.780.

Conclusion

Quantitative analysis of preoperative CT imaging metrics can help distinguish invasive adenocarcinoma from pre-invasive or minimally invasive adenocarcinoma.     

Height at Late Adolescence and Incident Diabetes among Young Men

Background

Short stature was suggested as a risk factor for diabetes onset among middle age individuals, but whether this is the case among young adults is unclear. Our goal was to assess the association between height and incident diabetes among young men.

Methods and Findings

Incident diabetes was assessed among 32,055 men with no history of diabetes, from the prospectively followed young adults of the MELANY cohort. Height was measured at two time points; at adolescence (mean age 17.4±0.3 years) and grouped according to the US-CDC percentiles and at young adulthood (mean age 31.0±5.6 years). Cox proportional hazards models were applied. There were 702 new cases of diabetes during a mean follow-up of 6.3±4.3 years. There was a significant increase in the crude diabetes incidence rate with decreasing adolescent height percentile, from 4.23 cases/10⁴ person-years in the <10^th percentile group to 2.44 cases/10⁴ person-years in the 75^th≤ percentile group. These results persisted when clinical and biochemical diabetes risk factors were included in multivariable models. Compared to the 75^th≤ percentile group, height below the 10^th percentile was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.64 (95%CI 1.09–2.46, p = 0.017) for incident diabetes after adjustment for age, body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, HDL-cholesterol and triglyceride levels, white blood cells count, socioeconomic status, country of origin, family history of diabetes, sleep quality and physical activity. At age 30 years, each 1-cm decrement in adult height was associated with a 2.5% increase in diabetes adjusted risk (HR 1.025, 95%CI 1.01–1.04, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

Shorter height at late adolescence or young adulthood was associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes among young men, independent of BMI and other diabetes risk factors.     

Water distribution at local and landscape scales affects tree utilization by elephants in Chobe National Park,Botswana

African elephant distribution and impacts are influenced by water availability. This study investigates the formation of piospheres – gradients of vegetation degradation with increasing proximity to water – at local and landscape scales in Chobe National Park, Botswana. Thirty‐four plots record elephant impact on trees in a transect extending over 60 km from the Chobe River, differentiating between debarking and browsing on branches. Elephant utilization exhibits local patterns nested within a landscape‐level context. At a local scale, branch herbivory decreases with distance from water, while debarking first decreases and then increases again. At a landscape scale, regression and canonical correlation analyses show decreasing debarking with distance from the river. Surprisingly, branch herbivory increases with distance from river, except within the first 10 km where previous studies have focused. Elephant impact on vegetation is both more complex and extensive than previously assumed. Piosphere predictions are upheld at the local scale, with utilization decreasing with distance from water. This does not hold at the landscape scale, however, likely due to seasonal shifts in elephant distribution, diet and the presence of water in ephemeral pans. These findings have important implications for elephant management and emphasize the importance of looking across scales when assessing elephant impact.     

Shifting Distributions of Adult Atlantic Sturgeon Amidst Post-Industrialization and Future Impacts in the Delaware River: a Maximum Entropy Approach

Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus oxyrinchus) experienced severe declines due to habitat destruction and overfishing beginning in the late 19^th century. Subsequent to the boom and bust period of exploitation, there has been minimal fishing pressure and improving habitats. However, lack of recovery led to the 2012 listing of Atlantic sturgeon under the Endangered Species Act. Although habitats may be improving, the availability of high quality spawning habitat, essential for the survival and development of eggs and larvae may still be a limiting factor in the recovery of Atlantic sturgeon. To estimate adult Atlantic sturgeon spatial distributions during riverine occupancy in the Delaware River, we utilized a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach along with passive biotelemetry during the likely spawning season. We found that substrate composition and distance from the salt front significantly influenced the locations of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River. To broaden the scope of this study we projected our model onto four scenarios depicting varying locations of the salt front in the Delaware River: the contemporary location of the salt front during the likely spawning season, the location of the salt front during the historic fishery in the late 19^th century, an estimated shift in the salt front by the year 2100 due to climate change, and an extreme drought scenario, similar to that which occurred in the 1960’s. The movement of the salt front upstream as a result of dredging and climate change likely eliminated historic spawning habitats and currently threatens areas where Atlantic sturgeon spawning may be taking place. Identifying where suitable spawning substrate and water chemistry intersect with the likely occurrence of adult Atlantic sturgeon in the Delaware River highlights essential spawning habitats, enhancing recovery prospects for this imperiled species.     

Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on match activity and physical performance in professional football referees

To investigate the effect of COVID-19 lockdown on match-play metrics in professional football referees during official matches of the Spanish professional leagues. Forty-two professional football referees from the First (n = 20) and Second Division (n = 22) were monitored during 564 official games using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. Data of matches before lockdown were compared to matches after resumption of the competition. Compared to pre-lockdown, in the referees of the First Division there was a decrease in the total running distance and the distance covered at all speed thresholds > 6 km · h^-1 after lockdown (P < .05). In the Second Division referees, the post-lockdown measurement only showed a decrease in the running distance at 21–24 km · h^-1 (P < .05), with no changes in the other speed thresholds. The post-lockdown measurement showed an increased distance covered at < 6 km · h^-1 and the number of accelerations for both First and Second Division referees (P < .05). Referees’ match activity was reduced due to the COVID-19 lockdown, while the effect on running parameters was more pronounced in First Division referees.     

Distribution of Daily Breathing Rates For Use in California's Air Toxics Hot Spots Program Risk Assessments

Data were combined from a study measuring breathing rates at various activities and two activity pattern studies to generate breathing rate distributions for children and adults. The children and adult breathing rate distributions were combined using a Monte Carlo technique to generate a breathing rate distribution for a lifetime spanning ages 0 to 70. The children's breathing rate distribution has a mean, standard deviation, median and 95^th percentile of 452, 67.7, 441, and 581 L/kg-day, respectively. The adult breathing rate distribution has a mean, standard deviation, median and 95^th percentile of 232, 64.6, 209, and 381 L/kg-day, respectively. The simulated 70-year distribution has a mean, standard deviation, median and 95^th percentile of 271, 57.9, 253, and 393 L/kg-day, respectively. The adult breathing rate distribution is based on 24-hour recall activity data that would not necessarily capture average activity patterns and therefore breathing rates. We utilized the human energy expenditure literature to validate the breathing rate distribution. We conclude that the breathing rate distribution is reasonable for chronic long-term risk assessment in California's Air Toxics Hot Spots program.     

基于梯度分析的武汉市生态系统服务价值时空分异特征

以2000年和2010年覆盖武汉市域的6景Landsat TM/ETM+遥感影像为基础数据,运用最大似然分类法提取土地利用类型,结合计算的武汉市单位面积生态系统服务价值,得到栅格尺度的武汉市生态系统服务价值分布图,并引入梯度分析方法,以城市中心为原点设置梯次环及考虑城市发展轴线设置采样条带,选取生态系统服务价值变化量和变化率两项指标进行梯度分析。结果表明,2000—2010武汉市总的生态系统服务价值共减少了2.68亿元;梯次环分析发现,武汉距离城市中心12—30km的北3—5环,以及距离市中心12—24km的南3—4环生态系统服务价值下降最为显著,而北8环及南7环则上升最为明显;条带分析发现,在东西向条带上,生态系统服务价值变化率曲线图呈现出一个对称的"W"形,而在南北方向上,变化率曲线可以按照变化的幅度分成了4个部分,此外与梯次环变化率曲线规律一致的是,北部要比南部变化更为剧烈。     

Climate Exposure of US National Parks in a New Era of Change

US national parks are challenged by climate and other forms of broad-scale environmental change that operate beyond administrative boundaries and in some instances are occurring at especially rapid rates. Here, we evaluate the climate change exposure of 289 natural resource parks administered by the US National Park Service (NPS), and ask which are presently (past 10 to 30 years) experiencing extreme (<5^th percentile or >95^th percentile) climates relative to their 1901–2012 historical range of variability (HRV). We consider parks in a landscape context (including surrounding 30 km) and evaluate both mean and inter-annual variation in 25 biologically relevant climate variables related to temperature, precipitation, frost and wet day frequencies, vapor pressure, cloud cover, and seasonality. We also consider sensitivity of findings to the moving time window of analysis (10, 20, and 30 year windows). Results show that parks are overwhelmingly at the extreme warm end of historical temperature distributions and this is true for several variables (e.g., annual mean temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the warmest quarter). Precipitation and other moisture patterns are geographically more heterogeneous across parks and show greater variation among variables. Across climate variables, recent inter-annual variation is generally well within the range of variability observed since 1901. Moving window size has a measureable effect on these estimates, but parks with extreme climates also tend to exhibit low sensitivity to the time window of analysis. We highlight particular parks that illustrate different extremes and may facilitate understanding responses of park resources to ongoing climate change. We conclude with discussion of how results relate to anticipated future changes in climate, as well as how they can inform NPS and neighboring land management and planning in a new era of change.