APACHE III Outcome Prediction in Patients Admitted to the Intensive Care Unit with Sepsis Associated Acute Lung Injury

Background and objective

Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score has been widely used for prediction of clinical outcomes in mixed critically ill patients. However, it has not been validated in patients with sepsis-associated acute lung injury (ALI). The aim of the study was to explore the calibration and predictive value of APACHE III in patients with sepsis-associated ALI.

Method

The study was a secondary analysis of a prospective randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of rosuvastatin in sepsis-associated ALI (Statins for Acutely Injured Lungs from Sepsis, SAILS). The study population was sepsis-related ALI patients. The primary outcome of the current study was the same as in the original trial, 60-day in-hospital mortality, defined as death before hospital discharge, censored 60 days after enrollment. Discrimination of APACHE III was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) with its 95% CI. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic was used to assess the calibration of APACHE III. The Brier score was reported to represent the overall performance of APACHE III in predicting outcome.

Main results

A total of 745 patients were included in the study, including 540 survivors and 205 non-survivors. Non-survivors were significantly older than survivors (59.71±16.17 vs 52.00±15.92 years, p<0.001). The primary causes of ALI were also different between survivors and non-survivors (p = 0.017). Survivors were more likely to have the cause of sepsis than non-survivors (21.2% vs. 15.1%). APACHE III score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (106.72±27.30 vs. 88.42±26.86; p<0.001). Discrimination of APACHE III to predict mortality in ALI patients was moderate with an AUC of 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.64–0.73).

Conclusion

this study for the first time validated the discrimination of APACHE III in sepsis associated ALI patients. The result shows that APACHE III score has moderate predictive value for in-hospital mortality among adults with sepsis-associated acute lung injury.     

Serum Procalcitonin Level and SOFA Score at Discharge from the Intensive Care Unit Predict Post-Intensive Care Unit Mortality: A Prospective Study

Purpose

The final decision for discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) is uncertain because it is made according to various patient parameters; however, it should be made on an objective evaluation. Previous reports have been inconsistent and unreliable in predicting post-ICU mortality. To identify predictive factors associated with post-ICU mortality, we analyzed physiological and laboratory data at ICU discharge.

Methods

Patients admitted to our ICU between September 2012 and August 2013 and staying for critical care>2 days were included. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; systemic inflammatory response syndrome score; white blood cell count; and serum C reactive protein, procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), lactate, albumin, and hemoglobin levels were recorded. The primary end point was 90-day mortality after ICU discharge. Two hundred eighteen patients were enrolled (195 survivors, 23 non-survivors).

Results

Non-survivors presented a higher SOFA score and serum PCT, and IL-6 levels, as well as lower serum albumin and hemoglobin levels. Serum PCT, albumin, and SOFA score were associated with 90-day mortality in multiple logistic regression analysis. Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed chi-square value of 6.96, and P value of 0.54. The area under the curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.830 (0.771–0.890) for PCT, 0.688 (0.566–0.810) for albumin, 0.861 (0.796–0.927) for SOFA score, and increased to 0.913 (0.858–0.969) when these were combined. Serum PCT level at 0.57 ng/mL, serum albumin at 2.5 g/dL and SOFA score at 5.5 predict 90-day mortality, and high PCT, low albumin and high SOFA groups had significantly higher mortality. Serum PCT and SOFA score were significantly associated with survival days after ICU discharge in Cox regression analysis.

Conclusions

Serum PCT level and SOFA score at ICU discharge predict post-ICU mortality and survival days after ICU discharge. The combination of these two and albumin level might enable accurate prediction.     

Serum Total Cholinesterase Activity on Admission Is Associated with Disease Severity and Outcome in Patients with Traumatic Brain Injury

Background

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is one of the leading causes of neurological disability. In this retrospective study, serum total cholinesterase (ChE) activities were analyzed in 188 patients for diagnostic as well as predictive values for mortality.

Methods and Findings

Within 72 hours after injury, serum ChE activities including both acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase were measured. Disease severity was evaluated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Glasgow Coma Score, length of coma, post-traumatic amnesia and injury feature. Neurocognitive and functional scores were assessed using clinical records. Of 188 patients, 146 (77.7%) survived and 42 (22.3%) died within 90 days. Lower ChE activities were noted in the non-survivors vs. survivors (5.94±2.19 vs. 7.04±2.16 kU/L, p=0.023), in septic vs. non-infected patients (5.93±1.89 vs. 7.31±2.45 kU/L, p=0.0005) and in patients with extremely severe injury vs. mild injury (6.3±1.98 vs. 7.57±2.48 kU/L, p=0.049). The trajectories of serum ChE levels were also different between non-survivors and survivors, septic and non-infected patients, mild and severely injured patients, respectively. Admission ChE activities were closely correlated with blood cell counts, neurocognitive and functional scores both on admission and at discharge. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the area under the curve for ChE was inferior to that for either APACHE II or white blood cell (WBC) count. However, at the optimal cutoff value of 5 kU/L, the sensitivity of ChE for correct prediction of 90-day mortality was 65.5% and the specificity was 86.4%. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that lower ChE activity (<5 kU/L) was more closely correlated with poor survival than higher ChE activity (>5 kU/L) (p=0.04). After adjusting for other variables, ChE was identified as a borderline independent predictor for mortality as analyzed by Binary logistic regression (P=0.078).

Conclusions

Lowered ChE activity measured on admission appears to be associated with disease severity and outcome for TBI patients.     

Increased Plasma Levels of Heparin-Binding Protein on Admission to Intensive Care Are Associated with Respiratory and Circulatory Failure

Purpose

Heparin-binding protein (HBP) is released by granulocytes and has been shown to increase vascular permeability in experimental investigations. Increased vascular permeability in the lungs can lead to fluid accumulation in alveoli and respiratory failure. A generalized increase in vascular permeability leads to loss of circulating blood volume and circulatory failure. We hypothesized that plasma concentrations of HBP on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) would be associated with decreased oxygenation or circulatory failure.

Methods

This is a prospective, observational study in a mixed 8-bed ICU. We investigated concentrations of HBP in plasma at admission to the ICU from 278 patients. Simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) 3 was recorded on admission. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores were recorded daily for three days.

Results

Median SAPS 3 was 58.8 (48–70) and 30-day mortality 64/278 (23%). There was an association between high plasma concentrations of HBP on admission with decreased oxygenation (p<0.001) as well as with circulatory failure (p<0.001), after 48–72 hours in the ICU. There was an association between concentrations of HBP on admission and 30-day mortality (p = 0.002). ROC curves showed areas under the curve of 0,62 for decreased oxygenation, 0,65 for circulatory failure and 0,64 for mortality.

Conclusions

A high concentration of HBP in plasma on admission to the ICU is associated with respiratory and circulatory failure later during the ICU care period. It is also associated with increased 30-day mortality. Despite being an interesting biomarker for the composite ICU population it´s predictive value at the individual patient level is low.     

Continuous Multimodality Monitoring in Children after Traumatic Brain Injury—Preliminary Experience

Introduction

Multimodality monitoring is regularly employed in adult traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients where it provides physiologic and therapeutic insight into this heterogeneous condition. Pediatric studies are less frequent.

Methods

An analysis of data collected prospectively from 12 pediatric TBI patients admitted to Addenbrooke’s Hospital, Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) between August 2012 and December 2014 was performed. Patients’ intracranial pressure (ICP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) were monitored continuously using brain monitoring software ICM+^®,) Pressure reactivity index (PRx) and ‘Optimal CPP’ (CPPopt) were calculated. Patient outcome was dichotomized into survivors and non-survivors.

Results

At 6 months 8/12 (66%) of the cohort survived the TBI. The median (±IQR) ICP was significantly lower in survivors 13.1±3.2 mm Hg compared to non-survivors 21.6±42.9 mm Hg (p = 0.003). The median time spent with ICP over 20 mm Hg was lower in survivors (9.7+9.8% vs 60.5+67.4% in non-survivors; p = 0.003). Although there was no evidence that CPP was different between survival groups, the time spent with a CPP close (within 10 mm Hg) to the optimal CPP was significantly longer in survivors (90.7±12.6%) compared with non-survivors (70.6±21.8%; p = 0.02). PRx provided significant outcome separation with median PRx in survivors being 0.02±0.19 compared to 0.39±0.62 in non-survivors (p = 0.02).

Conclusion

Our observations provide evidence that multi-modality monitoring may be useful in pediatric TBI with ICP, deviation of CPP from CPPopt, and PRx correlating with patient outcome.     

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score Can Predict Mortality in Patients with Paraquat Intoxication

Introduction

Paraquat poisoning is characterized by multi-organ failure and pulmonary fibrosis with respiratory failure, resulting in high mortality and morbidity. The objective of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in cases of paraquat poisoning. Furthermore, we sought to determine the association between these parameters.

Methods

A total of 187 patients were referred for management of intentional paraquat ingestion between January 2000 and December 2010. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were recorded. Sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and acute kidney injury network (AKIN) scores were collected, and predictors of mortality were analyzed.

Results

Overall hospital mortality for the entire population was 54% (101/187). Using a multivariate logistic regression model, it was found that age, time to hospitalization, blood paraquat level, estimated glomerular filtration rate at admission (eGFR _{first day}), and the SOFA_48-h score, but not the AKIN_48-h score, were significant predictors of mortality. For predicting the in-hospital mortality, SOFA_48-h scores displayed a good area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) (0.795±0.033, P<0.001). The cumulative survival rate differed significantly between patients with SOFA_48-h scores <3 and those ≥3 (P<0.001). A modified SOFA (mSOFA) score was further developed by using the blood paraquat level, and this new score also demonstrated a better AUROC (0.848±0.029, P<0.001) than the original SOFA score. Finally, the cumulative survival rate also differed significantly between patients with mSOFA scores <4 and ≥4 (P<0.001).

Conclusion

The analytical data demonstrate that SOFA and mSOFA scores, which are based on the extent of organ function or rate of organ failure, help to predict mortality after intentional paraquat poisoning.     

An Increase in Mean Platelet Volume from Baseline Is Associated with Mortality in Patients with Severe Sepsis or Septic Shock

Introduction

Mean platelet volume (MPV) is suggested as an index of inflammation, disease activity, and anti-inflammatory treatment efficacy in chronic inflammatory disorders; however, the effect of MPV on sepsis mortality remains unclear. Therefore, we investigated whether the change in MPV between hospital admission and 72 hours (ΔMPV_72h-adm) predicts 28-day mortality in severe sepsis and/or septic shock.

Methods

We prospectively enrolled 345 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) who received standardized resuscitation (early goal-directed therapy) for severe sepsis and/or septic shock between November 2007 and December 2011. Changes in platelet indices, including ΔMPV_72h-adm, were compared between survivors and non-survivors by linear mixed model analysis. The prognostic value of ΔMPV_72h-adm for 28-day mortality was ascertained by Cox proportional hazards model analysis.

Results

Thirty-five (10.1%) patients died within 28 days after ED admission. MPV increased significantly during the first 72 hours in non-survivors (P = 0.001) and survivors (P < 0.001); however, the rate of MPV increase was significantly higher in non-survivors (P = 0.003). Nonetheless, the difference in the platelet decline rate over the first 72 hours did not differ significantly between groups (P = 0.360). In multivariate analysis, ΔMPV_72h-adm was an independent predictor of 28-day mortality, after adjusting for plausible confounders (hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.01–2.06; P = 0.044).

Conclusions

An increase in MPV during the first 72 hours of hospitalization is an independent risk factor for adverse clinical outcomes. Therefore, continuous monitoring of MPV may be useful to stratify mortality risk in patients with severe sepsis and/or septic shock.     

Outcomes and Risk Factors for Mortality among Patients Treated with Carbapenems for Klebsiella spp. Bacteremia

Background

Extensive dissemination of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae has led to increased resistance among Klebsiella species. Carbapenems are used as a last resort against resistant pathogens, but carbapenemase production can lead to therapy failure. Identification of risk factors for mortality and assessment of current susceptibility breakpoints are valuable for improving patient outcomes.

Aim

The objective of this study was to evaluate outcomes and risk factors for mortality among patients treated with carbapenems for Klebsiella spp. bacteremia.

Methods

Patients hospitalized between 2006 and 2012 with blood cultures positive for Klebsiella spp. who received ≥ 48 hours of carbapenem treatment within 72 hours of positive culture were included in this retrospective study. Patient data were retrieved from electronic medical records. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for 30-day hospital mortality.

Results

One hundred seven patients were included. The mean patient age was 61.5 years and the median APACHE II score was 13 ± 6.2. Overall, 30-day hospital mortality was 9.3%. After adjusting for confounding variables, 30-day mortality was associated with baseline APACHE II score (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01–1.35; P = 0.03), length of stay prior to index culture (OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00–1.06; P = 0.04), and carbapenem non-susceptible (imipenem or meropenem MIC > 1 mg/L) infection (OR, 9.08; 95% CI, 1.17–70.51; P = 0.04).

Conclusions

Baseline severity of illness and length of stay prior to culture were associated with 30-day mortality and should be considered when treating patients with Klebsiella bacteremia. These data support the change in carbapenem breakpoints for Klebsiella species.     

The Incidence,Clinical Outcomes,and Risk Factors of Thrombocytopenia in Intra-Abdominal Infection Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Studies on the incidence and risk factors of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients remain absent, hindering efficacy assessments regarding thrombocytopenia prevention strategies.

Methods

We retrospectively studied 267 consecutively enrolled patients with intra-abdominal infections. Occurrence of thrombocytopenia was scanned for all patients. All-cause 28-day mortality was recorded. Variables from univariate analyses that were associated with occurrence of hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia were included in a multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine thrombocytopenia predictors.

Results

Median APACHE II score and SOFA score of the whole cohort was 12 and 3 respectively. The overall ICU mortality was 7.87% and the 28-day mortality was 8.98%. The incidence of thrombocytopenia among intra-abdominal infection patients was 21.73%. Regardless of preexisting or hospital-acquired one, thrombocytopenia is associated with an increased ICU mortality and 28-day mortality as well as length of ICU or hospital stay. A higher SOFA and ISTH score at admission were significant hospital-acquired thrombocytopenia risk factors.

Conclusions

This is the first study to identify a high incidence of thrombocytopenia in patients with intra-abdominal infections. Our findings suggest that the inflammatory milieu of intra-abdominal infections may uniquely predispose those patients to thrombocytopenia. More effective thrombocytopenia prevention strategies are necessary in intra-abdominal infection patients.     

Assessment of Fibrinolysis in Sepsis Patients with Urokinase Modified Thromboelastography

Introduction

Impairment of fibrinolysis during sepsis is associated with worse outcome. Early identification of this condition could be of interest. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a modified point-of-care viscoelastic hemostatic assay can detect sepsis-induced impairment of fibrinolysis and to correlate impaired fibrinolysis with morbidity and mortality.

Methods

This single center observational prospective pilot study was performed in an adult Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of a tertiary academic hospital. Forty consecutive patients admitted to the ICU with severe sepsis or septic shock were included. Forty healthy individuals served as controls. We modified conventional kaolin activated thromboelastography (TEG) adding urokinase to improve assessment of fibrinolysis in real time (UK-TEG). TEG, UK-TEG, plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1, thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI), d-dimer, DIC scores and morbidity (rated with the SOFA score) were measured upon ICU admission. Logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) of mortality at ICU discharge.

Results

UK-TEG revealed a greater impairment of fibrinolysis in sepsis patients compared to healthy individuals confirmed by PAI-1. TAFI was not different between sepsis patients and healthy individuals. 18/40 sepsis patients had fibrinolysis impaired according to UK-TEG and showed higher SOFA score (8 (6–13) vs 5 (4–7), p = 0.03), higher mortality (39% vs 5%, p = 0.01) and greater markers of cellular damage (lactate levels, LDH and bilirubin). Mortality at ICU discharge was predicted by the degree of fibrinolysis impairment measured by UK-TEG Ly30 (%) parameter (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.93–0.98, p = 0.003).

Conclusions

Sepsis-induced impairment of fibrinolysis detected at UK-TEG was associated with increased markers of cellular damage, morbidity and mortality.     

The Volume Ratio of Ground Glass Opacity in Early Lung CT Predicts Mortality in Acute Paraquat Poisoning

Background

Pulmonary injury is the main cause of death in acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning. However, whether quantitative lung computed tomography (CT) can be useful in predicting the outcome of PQ poisoning remains unknown. We aimed to identify early findings of quantitative lung CT as predictors of outcome in acute PQ poisoning.

Methods

Lung CT scanning (64-slide) and quantitative CT lesions were prospectively measured for patients after PQ intoxication within 5 days. The study outcome was mortality during 90 days follow-up. Survival curves were derived by the Kaplan-Meier method, and mortality risk factors were analyzed by the forward stepwise Cox regression analysis.

Results

Of 97 patients, 41 (42.3%) died. Among the eight different types of lung CT findings which appeared in the first 5-day of PQ intoxication, four ones discriminated between survivors and non-survivors including ground glass opacity (GGO), consolidation, pneumomediastinum and “no obvious lesion”. With a cutoff value of 10.8%, sensitivity of 85.4% and specificity of 89.3%, GGO volume ratio is better than adopted outcome indicators in predicting mortality, such as estimated amount of PQ ingestion, plasma or urine PQ concentration, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) II and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores. GGO volume ratios above 10.8% were associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 5.82; 95% confidence interval, 4.77-7.09; P < 0.001).

Conclusions

The volume ratio of GGO exceeding 10.8% is a novel, reliable and independent predictors of outcome in acute PQ poisoning.     

Biomarkers of Endothelial Activation Are Associated with Poor Outcome in Critical Illness

Background

Endothelial activation plays a role in organ dysfunction in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) promotes vascular quiescence while angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) mediates microvascular leak. Circulating levels of Ang-1 and Ang-2 in patients with SIRS could provide insight on risks for organ dysfunction and death distinct from inflammatory proteins. In this study, we determined if biomarkers of endothelial activation and inflammation exhibit independent associations with poor outcomes in SIRS.

Methods

We studied 943 critically ill patients with SIRS admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of an academic medical center. We measured plasma levels of endothelial markers (Ang-1, Ang-2, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1)) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1)) within 24 hours of enrollment. We tested for associations between each marker and 28 day mortality, shock, and day 3 sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. For 28 day mortality, we performed sensitivity analysis for those subjects with sepsis and those with sterile inflammation. We used multivariate models to adjust for clinical covariates and determine if associations identified with endothelial activation markers were independent of those observed with inflammatory markers.

Results

Higher levels of all biomarkers were associated with increased 28 day mortality except levels of Ang-1 which were associated with lower mortality. After adjustment for comorbidities and sTNFR-1 concentration, a doubling of Ang-1 concentration was associated with lower 28 day mortality (Odds ratio (OR) = 0.81; p<0.01), shock (OR = 0.82; p<0.001), and SOFA score (β = -0.50; p<0.001), while Ang-2 concentration was associated with increased mortality (OR = 1.55; p<0.001), shock (OR = 1.51; p<0.001), and SOFA score (β = +0.63; p<0.001). sVCAM-1 was not independently associated with SIRS outcomes.

Conclusions

In critically ill patients with SIRS, early measurements of Ang-1 and Ang-2 are associated with death and organ dysfunction independently of simultaneously-measured markers of inflammation.     

Thrombocytopenia Is Associated with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Mortality: An International Study

Background

Early detection of the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) has the potential to improvethe prognosis of critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). However, no reliable biomarkers are currently available for accurate early detection of ARDS in patients with predisposing conditions.

Objectives

This study examined risk factors and biomarkers for ARDS development and mortality in two prospective cohort studies.

Methods

We examined clinical risk factors for ARDS in a cohort of 178 patients in Beijing, China who were admitted to the ICU and were at high risk for ARDS. Identified biomarkers were then replicated in a second cohort of1,878 patients in Boston, USA.

Results

Of 178 patients recruited from participating hospitals in Beijing, 75 developed ARDS. After multivariate adjustment, sepsis (odds ratio [OR]:5.58, 95% CI: 1.70–18.3), pulmonary injury (OR: 3.22; 95% CI: 1.60–6.47), and thrombocytopenia, defined as platelet count <80×10³/µL, (OR: 2.67; 95% CI: 1.27–5.62)were significantly associated with increased risk of developing ARDS. Thrombocytopenia was also associated with increased mortality in patients who developed ARDS (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.07–1.57) but not in those who did not develop ARDS(AHR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.96–1.62). The presence of both thrombocytopenia and ARDS substantially increased 60-daymortality. Sensitivity analyses showed that a platelet count of <100×10³/µLin combination with ARDS provide the highest prognostic value for mortality. These associations were replicated in the cohort of US patients.

Conclusions

This study of ICU patients in both China and US showed that thrombocytopenia is associated with an increased risk of ARDS and platelet count in combination with ARDS had a high predictive value for patient mortality.     

Heart Rate Variability Analysis in an Experimental Model of Hemorrhagic Shock and Resuscitation in Pigs

Background

The analysis of heart rate variability (HRV) has been shown as a promising non-invasive technique for assessing the cardiac autonomic modulation in trauma. The aim of this study was to evaluate HRV during hemorrhagic shock and fluid resuscitation, comparing to traditional hemodynamic and metabolic parameters.

Methods

Twenty anesthetized and mechanically ventilated pigs were submitted to hemorrhagic shock (60% of estimated blood volume) and evaluated for 60 minutes without fluid replacement. Surviving animals were treated with Ringer solution and evaluated for an additional period of 180 minutes. HRV metrics (time and frequency domain) as well as hemodynamic and metabolic parameters were evaluated in survivors and non-survivors animals.

Results

Seven of the 20 animals died during hemorrhage and initial fluid resuscitation. All animals presented an increase in time-domain HRV measures during haemorrhage and fluid resuscitation restored baseline values. Although not significantly, normalized low-frequency and LF/HF ratio decreased during early stages of haemorrhage, recovering baseline values later during hemorrhagic shock, and increased after fluid resuscitation. Non-surviving animals presented significantly lower mean arterial pressure (43±7vs57±9 mmHg, P<0.05) and cardiac index (1.7±0.2vs2.6±0.5 L/min/m², P<0.05), and higher levels of plasma lactate (7.2±2.4vs3.7±1.4 mmol/L, P<0.05), base excess (-6.8±3.3vs-2.3±2.8 mmol/L, P<0.05) and potassium (5.3±0.6vs4.2±0.3 mmol/L, P<0.05) at 30 minutes after hemorrhagic shock compared with surviving animals.

Conclusions

The HRV increased early during hemorrhage but none of the evaluated HRV metrics was able to discriminate survivors from non-survivors during hemorrhagic shock. Moreover, metabolic and hemodynamic variables were more reliable to reflect hemorrhagic shock severity than HRV metrics.     

Serum Lipopolysaccharide Binding Protein Levels Predict Severity of Lung Injury and Mortality in Patients with Severe Sepsis

Background

There is a need for biomarkers insuring identification of septic patients at high-risk for death. We performed a prospective, multicenter, observational study to investigate the time-course of lipopolysaccharide binding protein (LBP) serum levels in patients with severe sepsis and examined whether serial serum levels of LBP could be used as a marker of outcome.

Methodology/Principal Findings

LBP serum levels at study entry, at 48 hours and at day-7 were measured in 180 patients with severe sepsis. Data regarding the nature of infections, disease severity, development of acute lung injury (ALI) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and intensive care unit (ICU) outcome were recorded. LBP serum levels were similar in survivors and non-survivors at study entry (117.4±75.7 µg/mL vs. 129.8±71.3 µg/mL, P = 0.249) but there were significant differences at 48 hours (77.2±57.0 vs. 121.2±73.4 µg/mL, P<0.0001) and at day-7 (64.7±45.8 vs. 89.7±61.1 µg/ml, p = 0.017). At 48 hours, LBP levels were significantly higher in ARDS patients than in ALI patients (112.5±71.8 µg/ml vs. 76.6±55.9 µg/ml, P = 0.0001). An increase of LBP levels at 48 hours was associated with higher mortality (odds ratio 3.97; 95%CI: 1.84–8.56; P<0.001).

Conclusions/Significance

Serial LBP serum measurements may offer a clinically useful biomarker for identification of patients with severe sepsis having the worst outcomes and the highest probability of developing sepsis-induced ARDS.     

Gender-Specific Differences in Outcome of Ascending Aortic Aneurysm Surgery

Objectives

Gender specific differences receive increasing attention and are known to affect the outcome of cardiovascular diseases. We investigated possible risk-factors for gender-specific differences in ascending aortic aneurysm surgery.

Methods

548 consecutive patients (male: n = 390, age: 58.3±14.4 years; female: n = 158, age: 65.3±12.9 years) with aneurysms of the ascending aorta eligible for cardiac surgery were retrospectively analyzed.

Results

Women were significantly older when operation was indicated (p<0.001) and presented with significantly more hypertension (p=0.04) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; p = 0.017), whereas men had significantly more previous cardiac operations (p = 0.016). Normalized aortic diameters (diameter / body surface area) were significantly larger in women (3.10±0.6 cm) vs. (2.75±0,5 cm, p≤0.001) in men, without differences in absolute values (5.74±1.04 cm vs. 5.86±1.34 cm). The aortic arch was significantly more involved in aneurysm formation in women (p = 0.04). Follow-up was available in 93% of the patients with a mean follow-up time of 3.9±3.9 (0-17.8) years. 30-day mortality was 3.5% in men (n=12) and 7.9% in women (n=11; p = 0.058). Univariate regression analysis shows gender specific risk factors for 30-day mortality in men to be age: p = 0.028; myocardial infarction: p = 0.0.24 and in women diameter of the ascending aorta: p=0.014; renal insufficiency: p=0.007. Long-term survival was significantly reduced in women (log-rank p = 0.0052).

Conclusions

The outcome after surgery for ascending aortic aneurysm is less favourable in women with significantly reduced long-term survival and a trend to increased 30-day mortality in this cohort. Larger normalized aortic diameters, higher incidence of involvement of the aortic arch and differences in comorbidities may contribute to gender differences. Women undergo surgery at higher age and more progressed state of aortic disease. Therefore, gender-specific guidelines for ascending replacement may be useful to improve outcome in women.     

Pulse Wave Transit Time Measurements of Cardiac Output in Septic Shock Patients: A Comparison of the Estimated Continuous Cardiac Output System with Transthoracic Echocardiography

Background

We determined reliability of cardiac output (CO) measured by pulse wave transit time cardiac output system (esCCO system; CO_esCCO) vs transthoracic echocardiography (CO_TTE) in mechanically ventilated patients in the early phase of septic shock. A secondary objective was to assess ability of esCCO to detect change in CO after fluid infusion.

Methods

Mechanically ventilated patients admitted to the ICU, aged >18 years, in sinus rhythm, in the early phase of septic shock were prospectively included. We performed fluid infusion of 500ml of crystalloid solution over 20 minutes and recorded CO by EsCCO and TTE immediately before (T0) and 5 minutes after (T1) fluid administration. Patients were divided into 2 groups (responders and non-responders) according to a threshold of 15% increase in CO_TTE in response to volume expansion.

Results

In total, 25 patients were included, average 64±15 years, 15 (60%) were men. Average SAPSII and SOFA scores were 55±21.3 and 13±2, respectively. ICU mortality was 36%. Mean cardiac output at T0 was 5.8±1.35 L/min by esCCO and 5.27±1.17 L/min by CO_TTE. At T1, respective values were 6.63 ± 1.57 L/min for esCCO and 6.10±1.29 L/min for CO_TTE. Overall, 12 patients were classified as responders, 13 as non-responders by the reference method. A threshold of 11% increase in CO_esCCO was found to discriminate responders from non-responders with a sensitivity of 83% (95% CI, 0.52-0.98) and a specificity of 77% (95% CI, 0.46-0.95).

Conclusion

We show strong correlation esCCO and echocardiography for measuring CO, and change in CO after fluid infusion in ICU patients.     

Acute Kidney Injury Enhances Outcome Prediction Ability of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score in Critically Ill Patients

Introduction

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common and serious complication in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and also often part of a multiple organ failure syndrome. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score is an excellent tool for assessing the extent of organ dysfunction in critically ill patients. This study aimed to evaluate the outcome prediction ability of SOFA and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in ICU patients with AKI.

Methods

A total of 543 critically ill patients were admitted to the medical ICU of a tertiary-care hospital from July 2007 to June 2008. Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables were prospectively recorded for post hoc analysis as predictors of survival on the first day of ICU admission.

Results

One hundred and eighty-seven (34.4%) patients presented with AKI on the first day of ICU admission based on the risk of renal failure, injury to kidney, failure of kidney function, loss of kidney function, and end-stage renal failure (RIFLE) classification. Major causes of the ICU admissions involved respiratory failure (58%). Overall in-ICU mortality was 37.9% and the hospital mortality was 44.7%. The predictive accuracy for ICU mortality of SOFA (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: 0.815±0.032) was as good as APACHE III in the AKI group. However, cumulative survival rates at 6-month follow-up following hospital discharge differed significantly (p<0.001) for SOFA score ≤10 vs. ≥11 in these ICU patients with AKI.

Conclusions

For patients coexisting with AKI admitted to ICU, this work recommends application of SOFA by physicians to assess ICU mortality because of its practicality and low cost. A SOFA score of ≥ “11” on ICU day 1 should be considered an indicator of negative short-term outcome.     

A Novel Method in the Stratification of Post-Myocardial-Infarction Patients Based on Pathophysiology

Objectives

We proposed that the severity of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) could be classified based on pathophysiological changes.

Methods

First-STEMI patients were classified within hospitalization. Grade 0: no detectable myocardial necrosis; Grade 1: myocardial necrosis without functional and morphological abnormalities; Grade 2: myocardial necrosis with reduced LVEF; Grade 3: reduced LVEF on the basis of cardiac remodeling; Grade 4: mitral regurgitation additional to the Grade-3 criteria.

Results

Of 180 patients, 1.7, 43.9, 26.1, 23.9 and 4.4% patients were classified as Grade 0 to 4, respectively. The classification is an independent predicator of 90-day MACEs (any death, resuscitated cardiac arrest, acute heart failure and stroke): the rate was 0, 5.1, 8.5, 48.8 and 75% from Grade 0 to 4 (p<0.001), respectively. The Grade-2 patients were more likely to have recovered left ventricular ejection fraction than the Grade-3/4 patients did after 90 days (48.9% vs. 19.1%, p<0.001). Avoiding complicated quantification, the classification served as a good reflection of infarction size as measured by cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (0±0, 15.68±8.48, 23.68±9.32, 36.12±11.35 and 40.66±14.33% of the left ventricular mass by Grade 0 to 4, P<0.001), and with a comparable prognostic value (AUC 0.819 vs. 0.813 for infarction size, p = 0.876 by C-statistics) for MACEs.

Conclusions

The new classification represents an easy and objective method to scale the cardiac detriments for STEMI patients.     

Prediction Model for Critically Ill Patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Background and objectives

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a major cause respiratory failure in intensive care unit (ICU). Early recognition of patients at high risk of death is of vital importance in managing them. The aim of the study was to establish a prediction model by using variables that were readily available in routine clinical practice.

Methods

The study was a secondary analysis of data obtained from the NHLBI Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. Patients were enrolled between August 2007 and July 2008 from 33 hospitals. Demographics and laboratory findings were extracted from dataset. Univariate analyses were performed to screen variables with p<0.3. Then these variables were subject to automatic stepwise forward selection with significance level of 0.1. Interaction terms and fractional polynomials were examined for variables in the main effect model. Multiple imputations and bootstraps procedures were used to obtain estimations of coefficients with better external validation. Overall model fit and logistic regression diagnostics were explored.

Main result

A total of 282 ARDS patients were included for model development. The final model included eight variables without interaction terms and non-linear functions. Because the variable coefficients changed substantially after exclusion of most poorly fitted and influential subjects, we estimated the coefficient after exclusion of these outliers. The equation for the fitted model was: g(Χ)=0.06×age(in years)+2.23(if on vasopressor)+1.37×potassium (mmol/l)-0.007×platelet count (×10⁹)+0.03×heart rate (/min)-0.29×Hb(g/dl)-0.67×T(°C)+0.01×PaO_2+13, and the probability of death π(Χ)=e^g(Χ)/(1+e^g(Χ)).

Conclusion

The study established a prediction model for ARDS patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The model was examined with rigorous methodology and can be used for risk stratification in ARDS patients.