Forest cover dynamics analysis and prediction modeling using logistic regression model

Forest cover conversion and depletion are of global concern due to their role in global warming. The present study attempted to study the forest cover dynamics and prediction modeling in Bhanupratappur Forest Division of Kanker district in Chhattisgarh province of India. The study aims to examine and analyze the various explanatory variables associated with forest conversion process and predict forest cover change using logistic regression model (LRM). The forest cover for the periods 1990 and 2000, derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery, was used to predict the forest cover for 2010. The predictive performance of the model was assessed by comparing the model-predicted forest cover with the actual forest cover for 2010. To explain the effects of anthropogenic pressure on forest, this study considered three distance variables viz., distance from forest edge, roads and settlements, and slope position classes as explanatory variables of forest change. The highest regression coefficient (β = −26.892) was noticed in case of distance from forest edge, which signifies the higher probability of forest change in areas that are closer to the forest edges. The analysis showed that forest cover has undergone continuous change between 1990 and 2010, leading to the loss of 107.2 km² of forest area. The LRM successfully predicted the forest cover for the period 2010 with reasonably high accuracy (ROC = 87%).     

Spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of high‐elevation forest stands in southern Siberia

Aim To evaluate the hypothesis that topographic features of high‐elevation mountain environments govern spatial distribution and climate‐driven dynamics of the forest. Location Upper mountain forest stands (elevation range 1800–2600 m) in the mountains of southern Siberia. Methods Archive maps, satellite and on‐ground data from1960 to 2002 were used. Data were normalized to avoid bias caused by uneven distribution of topographic features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness) within the analysed area. Spatial distribution of forest stands was analysed with respect to topography based on a digital elevation model (DEM). Results Spatial patterns in mountain forests are anisotropic with respect to azimuth, slope steepness and elevation. At a given elevation, the majority of forests occupied slopes with greater than mean slope values. As the elevation increased, forests shifted to steeper slopes. The orientation of forest azimuth distribution changed clockwise with increase in elevation (the total shift was 120°), indicating a combined effect of wind and water stress on the observed forest patterns. Warming caused changes in the forest distribution patterns during the last four decades. The area of closed forests increased 1.5 times, which was attributed to increased stand density and tree migration. The migration rate was 1.5 ± 0.9 m year^–1, causing a mean forest line shift of 63 ± 37 m. Along with upward migration, downward tree migration onto hill slopes was observed. Changes in tree morphology were also noted as widespread transformation of the prostrate forms of Siberian pine and larch into erect forms. Main conclusions The spatial pattern of upper mountain forests as well as the response of forests to warming strongly depends on topographic relief features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness). With elevation increase (and thus a harsher environment) forests shifted to steep wind‐protected slopes. A considerable increase in the stand area and increased elevation of the upper forest line was observed coincident with the climate warming that was observed. Warming promotes migration of trees to areas that are less protected from winter desiccation and snow abrasion (i.e. areas with lower values of slope steepness). Climate‐induced forest response has significantly modified the spatial patterns of high‐elevation forests in southern Siberia during the last four decades, as well as tree morphology.     

Assessment of vegetation cover by lichen-indication methods (by the example of the north of Central Siberia)

The vegetation cover in the north of Central Siberia has been assessed from lichenological data. The approaches and methods of lichen-based indication of the state of vegetation cover have been developed with the application of the data on diversity of lichens and lichen synusias, their projective cover and morphological deviations. The species of lichens and synusias that can be used for indication purposes have been defined. The changes in the characteristics of the lichen component in vegetation cover under the increasing chemical air pollution caused by industrial plants have been examined. The early deviations are indicated by morphological changes of lichen thalli, species depletion, and diversity of lichen synusias. Practical recommendations on lichen indication of the vegetation cover in the north of Siberia have been given.     

Forest regeneration affects dung beetle assemblages (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae) in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is one of the most diverse environments, but it is also one of the most threatened areas in terms of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Assessment of changes in the community structure during the recovery of forests can be performed using indicator organisms. Dung beetles perform several ecological functions and show high sensitivity to natural and anthropogenic environmental changes. This study aimed to investigate the effect of regeneration time of Atlantic Forest sites on structure of Scarabaeinae assemblages. We sampled dung beetles using ten baited pitfall traps per site, in six sites grouped into three classes of forest regeneration time (~30, ~60 and >80 years) in the southern Brazilian Atlantic Forest, during January 2015. A total of 520 individuals belonging to 16 species and nine genera of dung beetles were sampled. Rarefied species richness did not differ between sites with different regeneration times. Average species richness and abundance of Scarabaeinae was smaller in areas of shorter recovery time. True alpha diversity was higher in areas with intermediate recovery whereas Shannon diversity showed higher values in areas of shorter recovery. Approximately 29?% of the variation in abundance data of Scarabaeinae was explained by environmental variables, with one-third of this variation explained also by spatial predictors. External factors such as landscape management and farming practices in the surroundings must be taken into consideration in management plans and the management of natural areas for the recovery of biodiversity in the Atlantic Forest. These external factors can considerably affect the structure of communities and lead to scenarios of greater diversity in intermediate regeneration sites due to the heterogeneity of the landscape.     

Succession in the southern part of the Canadian boreal forest

Forest succession following fire in a forest mosaic of northwestern Quebec has been studied in order to: (1) describe the successional pathways using communities of different ages and (2) evaluate convergence of successional pathways and possible effect of fire suppression on the establishment of steady-state communities. As a first step, ordination and classification techniques were used in order to remove changes in forest composition which are related to abiotic conditions. Then, ordinations based on tree diameter distributions were used to study shifts in species composition in relation to time since the last fire.Even under similar abiotic conditions, successional pathways are numerous. However, regardless of forest composition after fire, most stands show convergence toward dominance of Thuja occidentalis and Picea mariana on xeric sites and dominance of Abies balsamea and Thuja occidentalis on more mesic sites. Stable communities of >300 yr occur on xeric sites while on mesic sites directional succession still occurs after 224 yr. Nearly all species involved in succession are present in the first 50 yr following fire. Only Abies balsamea and Thuja occidentalis increase significantly in frequency during succession. Following initial establishment, successional processes can generally be explained by species longevity and shade tolerance. Early successional species may be abundant in the canopy for more than 200 yr while the rapid decrease of Picea glauca, a late successional species could be related to spruce budworm outbreaks. Considering the short fire rotation observed (about 150 yr), a steady-state forest is unlikely to occur under natural conditions, though it may be possible if fire is controlled.     

Long‐term forest resilience to climate change indicated by mortality,regeneration, and growth in semiarid southern Siberia

Several studies have documented that regional climate warming and the resulting increase in drought stress have triggered increased tree mortality in semiarid forests with unavoidable impacts on regional and global carbon sequestration. Although climate warming is projected to continue into the future, studies examining long‐term resilience of semiarid forests against climate change are limited. In this study, long‐term forest resilience was defined as the capacity of forest recruitment to compensate for losses from mortality. We observed an obvious change in long‐term forest resilience along a local aridity gradient by reconstructing tree growth trend and disturbance history and investigating postdisturbance regeneration in semiarid forests in southern Siberia. In our study, with increased severity of local aridity, forests became vulnerable to drought stress, and regeneration first accelerated and then ceased. Radial growth of trees during 1900–2012 was also relatively stable on the moderately arid site. Furthermore, we found that smaller forest patches always have relatively weaker resilience under the same climatic conditions. Our results imply a relatively higher resilience in arid timberline forest patches than in continuous forests; however, further climate warming and increased drought could possibly cause the disappearance of small forest patches around the arid tree line. This study sheds light on climate change adaptation and provides insight into managing vulnerable semiarid forests.     

A quantitative estimation of the role of bithyniidae snails (gastropoda: Prosobranchia) in the ecosystems of the southern part of Western Siberia (Russia)

This study describes the species diversity, abundance and biomass of gastropods in the ecosystems of the southern part of Western Siberia (Karasuk River and Krotovo Lake, Karasukskii district, Novosibirsk Oblast). Eighteen species belonging to seven families were recorded, Lymnaeidae, Planorbidae, Bulinidae, Bithynhdae, Physidae, Succineidae, and Zonitidae. The percentage of Bithyniidae snails was assessed in comparison to other gastropods and in regard to the species diversity, abundance, and biomass. The role of Bithyniidae mollusks as a host for trematodes was assessed. The biodiversity of mollusks and trematodes was studied using the Shannon-Weaver index.     

Characteristic of natural regeneration of Aucoumea klaineana (Pierre) in Mayombe rain forest, southern Congo

The following article from African Journal of Ecology, ‘Characteristic of natural regeneration of Aucoumea klaineana (Pierre) in Mayombe rain forest, southern Congo’ by Serge Valentin Pangou, Gema Lechon, Théophile Bouki and Antoine Mountanda, first published online in Wiley Online Library ( http://www.wileyonlinelibrary.com ) on 3rd October 2006, and in volume 45, issue 2, pp. 156‐164, has been retracted with the agreement of the journal Editor in Chief, Frederick Kayanja, and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to unacknowledged overlap with ‘Density and population structure of the natural regeneration of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the High Ebro Basin (Northern Spain)’ by Santiago C. González‐Martínez, and Felipe Bravo, Annals of Forest Science (2001), Vol 58, issue 2, pp. 277–288.     

Holocene carbon dynamics at the forest–steppe ecotone of southern Siberia

The forest–steppe ecotone in southern Siberia is highly sensitive to climate change; global warming is expected to push the ecotone northwards, at the same time resulting in degradation of the underlying permafrost. To gain a deeper understanding of long‐term forest–steppe carbon dynamics, we use a highly resolved, multiproxy, palaeolimnological approach, based on sediment records from Lake Baikal. We reconstruct proxies that are relevant to understanding carbon dynamics including carbon mass accumulation rates (CMAR; g C m^?2 yr^?1) and isotope composition of organic matter (δ¹³C_TOC). Forest–steppe dynamics were reconstructed using pollen, and diatom records provided measures of primary production from near‐ and off‐shore communities. We used a generalized additive model (GAM) to identify significant change points in temporal series, and by applying generalized linear least‐squares regression modelling to components of the multiproxy data, we address (1) What factors influence carbon dynamics during early Holocene warming and late Holocene cooling? (2) How did carbon dynamics respond to abrupt sub‐Milankovitch scale events? and (3) What is the Holocene carbon storage budget for Lake Baikal. CMAR values range between 2.8 and 12.5 g C m^?2 yr^?1. Peak burial rates (and greatest variability) occurred during the early Holocene, associated with melting permafrost and retreating glaciers, while lowest burial rates occurred during the neoglacial. Significant shifts in carbon dynamics at 10.3, 4.1 and 2.8 kyr bp provide compelling evidence for the sensitivity of the region to sub‐Milankovitch drivers of climate change. We estimate that 1.03 Pg C was buried in Lake Baikal sediments during the Holocene, almost one‐quarter of which was buried during the early Holocene alone. Combined, our results highlight the importance of understanding the close linkages between carbon cycling and hydrological processes, not just temperatures, in southern Siberian environments.     

Ecological-coenotic characteristics of the bacterial dropsy infection rate in birch forests in the southern part of Middle Siberia (Krasnoyarsk group of areas)

As a result of a phytopathological investigation into birch (Betula pendula) stands in the Krasnoyarsk group of areas (south of Middle Siberia), newly appearing and existing nidi of bacterial dropsy have been discovered. The influence of growth conditions on morbid affection in birch forests and the correlation between disease prevalence and characteristics of forest inventory have been established. The specificities of tree affection within phytocenoses and the influence of disease on the sanitary state of birch forests have been discussed.     

Tree regeneration and future dynamics of the laurel forest on Tenerife,Canary Islands

Abstract. We studied two sites in the laurel forest of Tenerife to predict future changes in canopy composition. We used two projection methods: Horn's ‘Markovian Projection’, which utilizes information on juveniles in the vicinity of canopy trees, and a 'Stand Projection’, which ignores such information. We performed these projections both including and excluding a-sexual regeneration. Although all of our projections predict a change in species composition, inclusion of a-sexual reproduction decreased the magnitude of successional change. The persistence of Prunus lusitanica and Ilex canariensis appears to be highly dependent on a-sexual regeneration. Both the Markov- and stand projections predict a slight convergence in species composition between the two sites when only sexual regeneration is considered, and also a higher dominance of the shade-tolerant species Laurus azorica. When a-sexual regeneration is also considered, some divergence is shown, with less projected change in the stand projection than in the Markov projection. In spite of some differences between the models, general patterns such as an increase of shade-tolerant species (Laurus azorica and Prunus lusitanica) and a decrease of shade-intolerant species (Erica arborea, Erica scoparia and Myrica faya) are consistent.     

Lower Cambrian (Botomian) polycystine Radiolaria from the Altai Mountains (southern Siberia, Russia)

Relatively well-preserved polycystine Radiolaria are here described from Lower Cambrian (Botomian) strata of the Shashkunar Formation, Altai Mountains in southern Siberia (Russia). These radiolarians display a test formed of a disorderly and three-dimensionally interwoven meshwork of numerous straight and curved bars branching from a five-rayed point-centered spicule located within the inner shell surface. The shell structure allows their assignment to the family Archeoentactiniidae, thus extending the known age range of the family down to the Lower Cambrian. The Botomian age is based essentially on trilobites (Parapagetia-Serrodiscus zone), but also on archaeocyathids identified in earlier publications. The study of the radiolarian-bearing sedimentary sequence confirms the presence of polycystine radiolaria in the external platform environments of Lower Cambrian ecosystems.     

Carbon and nitrogen in the ground waters of the Tellerman forest (European southern forest steppe)

Under the upland forests growing on the Dnieper loamy soils at 150–160 m above sea level, sandy aquifers are found at ~120 and ~140 m above sea level. The general mineralization of groundwaters (GWs) and the concentration of SO ₄ ^-2 increase upon approaching the foundation of fluvial glacial sediments. The concentration of C supplied to the local GWs is 10–12 mg L^–1 per year^–1. The concentration of C(CO ₃ ^-2 ; HCO ₃ ^-1 ; NO ₃ ^-1 ; NO ₂ ^-1 ) in the DSW is consistent with the C balance of upper biogeocenoses and the rate of groundwater migration. The concentrations of N(nh ₄ ⁺¹ ) are unrelated to the filtration of biogeocenosis moisture. They are identical both under sodic grassy glades and highly productive tree stands. The main part of N-containing ions in situ is synthesized and destroyed by anaerobic microorganisms living in the GW.     

Effect of increased Populus cover on Abies regeneration in the Picea–feathermoss boreal forest

Question: Does the increase in Populus tremuloides cover within the Picea mariana–feathermoss domain enhance establishment and growth conditions for Abies balsamea regeneration? Location: Boreal forest of northwest Quebec, Canada. Method: To document the effect of Populus tremuloides on A. balsamea regeneration, mixed stands with a heterogeneous presence of P. tremuloides adjacent to Picea mariana‐dominated stands were selected. Abies balsamea regeneration, understorey environment and canopy composition were characterized from 531 sampling units distributed along transects covering the mixed–coniferous gradient. Abundance of understorey A. balsamea regeneration was described using three height groups: seedling (<30 cm), small sapling (30 to <100 cm) and tall sapling (100 to 300 cm). Growth characteristics were measured from 251 selected individuals of A. balsamea (<3 m). Results: Results showed that A. balsamea regeneration was generally more abundant when P. tremuloides was present in the canopy. Differences between seedling and sapling abundance along the mixed–coniferous gradient suggest that while establishment probably occurs over a wide range of substrates, the better growth conditions found under mixed stands ensure a higher survival rate for A. balsamea seedlings. Conclusions: The abundant A. balsamea regeneration observed within mixed stands of the Picea mariana–feathermoss domain suggests that the increase in P. tremuloides cover, favoured by intensive management practices and climatic change, could contribute to acceleration of the northward expansion of the A. balsamea–Betula papyrifera domain into the northern boreal forest dominated by Picea mariana.     

Effects of regeneration burning on the properties of forest soils in southern Tasmania: Comments on recent study by Elliset al. (1982)

Summary Important methodological factors which should be considered when attempting to measure and interpret the effects of hot slash fires on the properties of forest surface soils are briefly discussed. Soil properties cannot be assumed to be similar, prior to cutting and burning of forest, on coupes located several kilometres apart in dissected terrain. In order to study the effects of forest treatment on soil properties, sites should either be closely adjacent or preferably measurements should be taken before and after treatment on the same experimental area.It is argued that the conclusions reached by Elliset al. regarding the effects of regeneration burning on soil properties in southern Tasmania are unjustified because of the use of inappropriate experimental methods.     

Changes in the forest cover after intense logging in southern taiga of the russian federation

Specific features of the forest cover formation after industrial timber cutting during a period of 50 years in southern taiga spruce forests (Kostroma oblast) are described. The statistical analysis of the forest use intensity, the forested area, and the dynamics of the age and species structure of forests was performed. Plans of forest stands obtained for five inspections and taxation databases of 1954 and 1997 were also used. The potentialities of analyzing the structure of forest mapping units using means of overlay in the geoinformation system are considered. Parameters for distinguishing forest compartments were calculated. The dynamics of these parameters reflect the natural development of forest, effects of adverse environmental factors, economic history of the region, and specific features of individual interpretation of the survey materials in forest management.     

Species composition and seasonal dynamics of water mites (Hydracarina) in a mountain stream (Steina,Black Forest,southern Germany)

The species composition and seasonal dynamics of water mites were studied in a small softwater stream in southern Germany from October 1986 to November 1988. On average water mites contributed 5.5% by abundance and 1.8% by biomass to the total invertebrate community. Annual densities and biomasses averaged 623–1057 (mean 905) individuals M^–2 and 45.9–75.6 mg (mean 64.0) dry mass m^–2, respectively. 41 species were identified, Torrenticola elliptica (Torrenticolidae) being the most abundant. Nearly every taxon showed a distinct and consistent seasonality, with maximum abundance and biomass in summer and minimum values in winter. Both abundance and biomass of water mites were significantly correlated with water temperature (p < 0.001).     

Effect of nitrogen availability on forest understorey cover and its consequences for tree regeneration in the Austrian limestone Alps

The impact of airborne nitrogen on tree regeneration has attracted increasing interest as deposition loads are by far exceeding natural amounts. Eutrophication may have both direct and indirect effects on the regeneration of forest trees. Here, we focus on potential indirect effects, mediated by nitrogen-dependent patterns in forest understoreys. Using data from a long-term monitoring site in a montane forest ecosystem of the Northern Limestone Alps, we first evaluated correlations between understorey cover of herbs and graminoids and nitrogen availability, as indicated by soil C/N ratios. Then, recruitment and growth rates of the four major tree species of this system (Acer pseudplatanus, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies) were related to understorey cover by means of linear and generalized linear mixed models, taking covariates (soil pH value, radiation, microrelief properties) and spatially varied seed input into account. Nitrogen availability is positively related to graminoid and herb cover. Herb cover had a negative effect on A. pseudoplatanus recruitment, while graminoids had a positive effect on F. sylvatica. Browsing damage on juvenile trees was reduced when graminoid cover was higher We conclude that under specific abiotic and biotic conditions, like on steep, erosion prone slopes, or under high levels of herbivore pressure, understorey vegetation may facilitate tree seedlings rather than compete with them. This highlights the complexity of the factors controlling tree regeneration and the difficulty to predict the net effects of the excess deposition of airborne nitrogen.     

Disturbance and the dynamics of coral cover on the Great Barrier Reef (1995-2009)

Coral reef ecosystems worldwide are under pressure from chronic and acute stressors that threaten their continued existence. Most obvious among changes to reefs is loss of hard coral cover, but a precise multi-scale estimate of coral cover dynamics for the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is currently lacking. Monitoring data collected annually from fixed sites at 47 reefs across 1300 km of the GBR indicate that overall regional coral cover was stable (averaging 29% and ranging from 23% to 33% cover across years) with no net decline between 1995 and 2009. Subregional trends (10-100 km) in hard coral were diverse with some being very dynamic and others changing little. Coral cover increased in six subregions and decreased in seven subregions. Persistent decline of corals occurred in one subregion for hard coral and Acroporidae and in four subregions in non-Acroporidae families. Change in Acroporidae accounted for 68% of change in hard coral. Crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster planci) outbreaks and storm damage were responsible for more coral loss during this period than either bleaching or disease despite two mass bleaching events and an increase in the incidence of coral disease. While the limited data for the GBR prior to the 1980's suggests that coral cover was higher than in our survey, we found no evidence of consistent, system-wide decline in coral cover since 1995. Instead, fluctuations in coral cover at subregional scales (10-100 km), driven mostly by changes in fast-growing Acroporidae, occurred as a result of localized disturbance events and subsequent recovery.