Palaeodiversity and formation counts: redundancy or bias?

A key question in palaeontology is whether the fossil record taken at face value is adequate to represent true patterns of diversity through time. Some methods of assessing data quality have depended on the commonly observed covariation of palaeodiversity and fossiliferous formation counts through time, based on the assumption that the count of formations containing fossils, to a greater or lesser extent, drives diversity; but what if diversity drives formations? Close study of two fossil records, early tetrapods (Devonian–Jurassic) and dinosaurs, shows how the relationship between new taxa and new fossiliferous formations varies through research time. Initially, each new find represents a new fossiliferous formation and discovery follows the ‘bonanza’ model (fossils drive formations). In unexplored parts of the world, new taxa are identified frequently in new regions/formations. Only after time, in well‐explored continents such as Europe and North America, does collecting style switch to a mix of exploration for new formations and re‐sampling of known fossiliferous formations. Data are most striking for dinosaurs, where the Triassic–Jurassic record largely comprises finds from Europe and North America, where new formation discoveries reached their half‐life in 1914. This contrasts with the Cretaceous, which is dominated by rapidly rising discoveries from regions outside Europe and North America and the formation half‐life for these ‘new’ lands is 1986, showing that 50% of new Cretaceous dinosaur‐bearing formations were identified only in the past 30 years. The relationship between dinosaur‐bearing formations and palaeodiversity then combines three signals in variable amounts, reflecting the original diversity (relative abundances of particular taxa in different formations), redundancy (new fossiliferous formations accruing because of new fossil finds) and sampling (intensity of exploration for new fossiliferous formations, and of search within already‐sampled formations). For fossil vertebrates at least, formation counts of various kinds are poor predictors of sampling, missing, for example, the bonanza samples of Lagerstätten such as the Yixian Formation in China: thousands of specimens, dozens of species, but counted as one formation. These observations suggest that formation count cannot be regarded as an unbiased metric of sampling.     

Sea level,dinosaur diversity and sampling biases: investigating the ‘common cause’ hypothesis in the terrestrial realm

The fossil record is our primary window onto the diversification of ancient life, but there are widespread concerns that sampling biases may distort observed palaeodiversity counts. Such concerns have been reinforced by numerous studies that found correlations between measures of sampling intensity and observed diversity. However, correlation does not necessarily mean that sampling controls observed diversity: an alternative view is that both sampling and diversity may be driven by some common factor (e.g. variation in continental flooding driven by sea level). The latter is known as the ‘common cause’ hypothesis. Here, we present quantitative analyses of the relationships between dinosaur diversity, sampling of the dinosaur fossil record, and changes in continental flooding and sea level, providing new insights into terrestrial common cause. Although raw data show significant correlations between continental flooding/sea level and both observed diversity and sampling, these correlations do not survive detrending or removal of short-term autocorrelation. By contrast, the strong correlation between diversity and sampling is robust to various data transformations. Correlations between continental flooding/sea level and taxic diversity/sampling result from a shared upward trend in all data series, and short-term changes in continental flooding/sea level and diversity/sampling do not correlate. The hypothesis that global dinosaur diversity is tied to sea-level fluctuations is poorly supported, and terrestrial common cause is unsubstantiated as currently conceived. Instead, we consider variation in sampling to be the preferred null hypothesis for short-term diversity variation in the Mesozoic terrestrial realm.     

‘Fish’ (Actinopterygii and Elasmobranchii) diversification patterns through deep time

Actinopterygii (ray‐finned fishes) and Elasmobranchii (sharks, skates and rays) represent more than half of today's vertebrate taxic diversity (approximately 33000 species) and form the largest component of vertebrate diversity in extant aquatic ecosystems. Yet, patterns of ‘fish’ evolutionary history remain insufficiently understood and previous studies generally treated each group independently mainly because of their contrasting fossil record composition and corresponding sampling strategies. Because direct reading of palaeodiversity curves is affected by several biases affecting the fossil record, analytical approaches are needed to correct for these biases. In this review, we propose a comprehensive analysis based on comparison of large data sets related to competing phylogenies (including all Recent and fossil taxa) and the fossil record for both groups during the Mesozoic–Cainozoic interval. This approach provides information on the ‘fish’ fossil record quality and on the corrected ‘fish’ deep‐time phylogenetic palaeodiversity signals, with special emphasis on diversification events. Because taxonomic information is preserved after analytical treatment, identified palaeodiversity events are considered both quantitatively and qualitatively and put within corresponding palaeoenvironmental and biological settings. Results indicate a better fossil record quality for elasmobranchs due to their microfossil‐like fossil distribution and their very low diversity in freshwater systems, whereas freshwater actinopterygians are diverse in this realm with lower preservation potential. Several important diversification events are identified at familial and generic levels for elasmobranchs, and marine and freshwater actinopterygians, namely in the Early–Middle Jurassic (elasmobranchs), Late Jurassic (actinopterygians), Early Cretaceous (elasmobranchs, freshwater actinopterygians), Cenomanian (all groups) and the Paleocene–Eocene interval (all groups), the latter two representing the two most exceptional radiations among vertebrates. For each of these events along with the Cretaceous‐Paleogene extinction, we provide an in‐depth review of the taxa involved and factors that may have influenced the diversity patterns observed. Among these, palaeotemperatures, sea‐levels, ocean circulation and productivity as well as continent fragmentation and environment heterogeneity (reef environments) are parameters that largely impacted on ‘fish’ evolutionary history, along with other biotic constraints.     

HOW DO GEOLOGICAL SAMPLING BIASES AFFECT STUDIES OF MORPHOLOGICAL EVOLUTION IN DEEP TIME? A CASE STUDY OF PTEROSAUR (REPTILIA: ARCHOSAURIA) DISPARITY

A fundamental contribution of paleobiology to macroevolutionary theory has been the illumination of deep time patterns of diversification. However, recent work has suggested that taxonomic diversity counts taken from the fossil record may be strongly biased by uneven spatiotemporal sampling. Although morphological diversity (disparity) is also frequently used to examine evolutionary radiations, no empirical work has yet addressed how disparity might be affected by uneven fossil record sampling. Here, we use pterosaurs (Mesozoic flying reptiles) as an exemplar group to address this problem. We calculate multiple disparity metrics based upon a comprehensive anatomical dataset including a novel phylogenetic correction for missing data, statistically compare these metrics to four geological sampling proxies, and use multiple regression modeling to assess the importance of uneven sampling and exceptional fossil deposits (Lagerstätten). We find that range‐based disparity metrics are strongly affected by uneven fossil record sampling, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The robustness of variance‐based metrics to sample size and geological sampling suggests that they can be more confidently interpreted as reflecting true biological signals. In addition, our results highlight the problem of high levels of missing data for disparity analyses, indicating a pressing need for more theoretical and empirical work.     

Modelling the past: new generation approaches to understanding biological patterns in the fossil record

The history of life on this planet is gleaned from analysing how fossils are distributed through time and space. While these patterns are now rather securely known, at least for well-studied parts of the world, their interpretation remains far from simple. Fossils preserve only partial data from which to reconstruct their biology and the geological record is incomplete and biased, so that taxonomic ranges and palaeocommunity structure are imperfectly known. To better understand the often highly complex deep-time processes that gave rise to the empirical fossil record, palaeontologists have turned to modelling the past. Here, we summarize a series of 11 papers that showcase where modelling the past is being applied to advance our understanding across a wide spectrum of current palaeontological endeavours.     

Variable preservation potential and richness in the fossil record of vertebrates

Variation in preservation and sampling probability clouds our estimates of past biodiversity. The most extreme examples are Lagerstätten faunas and floras. Although such deposits provide a wealth of information and represent true richness better than other deposits, they can create misleading diversity peaks because of their species richness. Here, we investigate how Lagerstätten formations add to time series of vertebrate richness in the UK, Germany and China. The first two nations are associated with well-studied fossil records and the last is a country where palaeontology has a much shorter history; all three nations include noted Lagerstätten in their fossil records. Lagerstätten provide a larger proportion of China's sampled richness than in Germany or the UK, despite comprising a smaller proportion of its fossiliferous deposits. The proportions of taxa that are unique to Lagerstätten vary through time and between countries. Further, in all regions, we find little overlap between the taxa occurring in Lagerstätten and in ‘ordinary’ formations within the same time bin, indicating that Lagerstätten preserve unusual faunas. As expected, fragile taxa make up a greater proportion of richness in Lagerstätten than the remainder of the fossil record. Surprisingly, we find that Lagerstätten account for a minority of peaks in the palaeodiversity curves of all vertebrates (18% in the UK; 36% in Germany and China), and Lagerstätten count is generally not a good overall predictor of the palaeodiversity signal. Vastly different sampling probabilities through taxa, locations and time require serious consideration when analysing palaeodiversity curves.     

Completeness of the fossil record and the validity of sampling proxies at outcrop level

Abstract: Most studies of the adequacy of the fossil record have been carried out at a global or continental scale, and they have used sampling proxies that generally do not incorporate all aspects of sampling (i.e. rock volume, accessibility, effort). Nonetheless, such studies have identified positive correlations between apparent diversity and various sampling proxies. The covariation of fossil and rock record signals has been interpreted as evidence for bias or for a common cause, such as sea level change, or as evidence that the signals are in some ways redundant with each other. Here, we compare a number of proxies representing the three main aspects of sampling, (1) sedimentary rock volume, (2) rock accessibility and (3) worker effort, with palaeodiversity in a geographically and stratigraphically constrained data set, the marine Lower Jurassic outcrop of the Dorset and East Devon Coast. We find that the proxies for rock volume and accessibility do not correlate well with the other sampling proxies, nor with apparent diversity, suggesting that the total amount of sedimentary rock preserved does not influence apparent diversity at a local scale, that is, the rock record at outcrop has been sampled efficiently. However, we do find some correlations between apparent diversity and proxies for worker effort. The fact that the proxies do not correlate significantly with each other suggests that none can be regarded as an all‐encompassing sampling proxy that covers all aspects of bias. Further, the presence of some correlations between sampling proxies and diversity most probably indicates the bonanza effect, as palaeontologists have preferentially sampled the richest rock units.     

Analysing the representativeness of local‐scale palaeodiversity measurements: a case from the Lower Cretaceous plant assemblage of Hautrage (Mons Basin,Belgium)

Two plant fossil‐bearing beds from the middle Barremian of Belgium were analysed to ascertain how experimental designs affect conclusions regarding palaeodiversity at a local scale. We analysed eight lateral samples per bed taken regularly every 3 m using an exhaustive sub‐sampling method. The Clench equation was used to evaluate the completeness of the taxonomic inventory of the samples and the sampling effort needed to obtain a reliable representation of diversity. The number of replicates needed to obtain the same representation of diversity from different nearby lateral samples of the same bed ranged from 5 to 19. Richness (S), Evenness (J) and the number of equiprobable taxa (2^H’) greatly varied between samples from the same bed, even over short distances. Only one of the studied samples was representative of the taxonomic inventory of its bed. Our study shows that 1) the selection bias of the sampling area is reduced by increasing the number of lateral samples taken in a bed, enabling more reliable conclusions about local‐scale diversity; 2) intense sub‐sampling methods are needed to account for statistically independent observations of detailed lateral variation; and 3) sampling methods in palaeodiversity analyses must look for a similar degree of representativeness in samples rather than a homogeneous sample size. Using a sampling effort analysis provides evidence for the completeness of the data set, adjusting the amount of work required. Implementing the Clench equation in palaeodiversity analyses improves the performance of data acquisition in palaeoecological studies and provides a quality test of the data sets derived from them.     

Multi-variate models are essential for understanding vertebrate diversification in deep time

Statistical models are helping palaeontologists to elucidate the history of biodiversity. Sampling standardization has been extensively applied to remedy the effects of uneven sampling in large datasets of fossil invertebrates. However, many vertebrate datasets are smaller, and the issue of uneven sampling has commonly been ignored, or approached using pairwise comparisons with a numerical proxy for sampling effort. Although most authors find a strong correlation between palaeodiversity and sampling proxies, weak correlation is recorded in some datasets. This has led several authors to conclude that uneven sampling does not influence our view of vertebrate macroevolution. We demonstrate that multi-variate regression models incorporating a model of underlying biological diversification, as well as a sampling proxy, fit observed sauropodomorph dinosaur palaeodiversity best. This bivariate model is a better fit than separate univariate models, and illustrates that observed palaeodiversity is a composite pattern, representing a biological signal overprinted by variation in sampling effort. Multi-variate models and other approaches that consider sampling as an essential component of palaeodiversity are central to gaining a more complete understanding of deep time vertebrate diversification.     

The mosasaur fossil record through the lens of fossil completeness

The quality of the fossil record affects our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns. Palaeodiversity is filtered through geological and human processes; efforts to correct for these biases are part of a debate concerning the role of sampling proxies and standardization in biodiversity models. We analyse the fossil record of mosasaurs in terms of fossil completeness as a measure of fossil quality, using three novel, correlating metrics of fossil completeness and 4083 specimens. A new qualitative measure of character completeness (QCM) correlates with the phylogenetic character completeness metric. Mean completeness by species decreases with specimen count; average completeness by substage varies significantly. Mean specimen completeness is higher for species‐named fossils than those identified to genus and family. We consider the effect of tooth‐only specimens. Importantly, we find that completeness of species does not correlate with completeness of specimens. Completeness varies by palaeogeography: North American specimens show higher completeness than those from Eurasia and Gondwana. These metrics can be used to identify exceptional preservation; specimen completeness varies significantly by both formation and lithology. The Belgian Ciply Formation displays the highest completeness; clay lithologies show higher completeness values. Neither species diversity nor sea level correlates significantly with fossil completeness. A generalized least squares (GLS) analysis using multiple variables agrees with this result, but reveals two variables with significant predictive value for modelling averaged diversity: sea level, and mosasaur and plesiosaur‐bearing formations (the latter is redundant with diversity). Mosasaur completeness is not driven by sea level, nor does completeness limit the mosasaur diversity signal.     

Early tetrapodomorph biogeography: Controlling for fossil record bias in macroevolutionary analyses

The fossil record provides direct empirical data for understanding macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Inherent biases in the fossil record are well known to confound analyses of this data. Sampling bias proxies have been used as covariates in regression models to test for such biases. Proxies, such as formation count, are associated with paleobiodiversity, but are insufficient for explaining species dispersal owing to a lack of geographic context. Here, we develop a sampling bias proxy that incorporates geographic information and test it with a case study on early tetrapodomorph biogeography. We use recently-developed Bayesian phylogeographic models and a new supertree of early tetrapodomorphs to estimate dispersal rates and ancestral habitat locations. We find strong evidence that geographic sampling bias explains supposed radiations in dispersal rate (potential adaptive radiations). Our study highlights the necessity of accounting for geographic sampling bias in macroevolutionary and phylogenetic analyses and provides an approach to test for its effect.     

Mesozoic marine tetrapod diversity: mass extinctions and temporal heterogeneity in geological megabiases affecting vertebrates

The fossil record is our only direct means for evaluating shifts in biodiversity through Earth''s history. However, analyses of fossil marine invertebrates have demonstrated that geological megabiases profoundly influence fossil preservation and discovery, obscuring true diversity signals. Comparable studies of vertebrate palaeodiversity patterns remain in their infancy. A new species-level dataset of Mesozoic marine tetrapod occurrences was compared with a proxy for temporal variation in the volume and facies diversity of fossiliferous rock (number of marine fossiliferous formations: FMF). A strong correlation between taxic diversity and FMF is present during the Cretaceous. Weak or no correlation of Jurassic data suggests a qualitatively different sampling regime resulting from five apparent peaks in Triassic–Jurassic diversity. These correspond to a small number of European formations that have been the subject of intensive collecting, and represent ‘Lagerstätten effects’. Consideration of sampling biases allows re-evaluation of proposed mass extinction events. Marine tetrapod diversity declined during the Carnian or Norian. However, the proposed end-Triassic extinction event cannot be recognized with confidence. Some evidence supports an extinction event near the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary, but the proposed end-Cenomanian extinction is probably an artefact of poor sampling. Marine tetrapod diversity underwent a long-term decline prior to the Cretaceous–Palaeogene extinction.     

Evolutionary diversification of reef corals: a comparison of the molecular and fossil records

Understanding historical patterns of diversity dynamics is of paramount importance for many evolutionary questions. The fossil record has long been the only source of information on patterns of diversification, but the molecular record, derived from time-calibrated phylogenies, is becoming an important additional resource. Both fossil and molecular approaches have shortcomings and biases. These have been well studied for fossil data but much less so for molecular data and empirical comparisons between approaches are lacking. Here, we compare the patterns of diversification derived from fossil and molecular data in scleractinian reef coral species. We also assess the robustness of molecular diversification rates to poor taxon sampling. We find that the temporal pattern of molecular diversification rates is robust to incomplete sampling when rates are calculated per interval. The major obstacle of molecular methods is that rate estimates are distorted because diversification rates can never be negative, whereas the fossil record suffers from incomplete preservation and inconsistent taxonomy. Nevertheless, the molecular pattern of diversification is comparable to the pattern we observe in the fossil record, with the timing of major diversification pulses coinciding in each dataset. For example, both agree that the end-Triassic coral extinction was a catastrophic bottleneck in scleractinian evolution.     

Telling time from fossils: a phylogeny-based approach to chronological ordering of paleobiotas

The potential for using fossils for temporal ordering of sedimentary rocks is as old as historical geology itself. In spite of this, however, most current biostratigraphic and biochronologic techniques do not make use of phylogenetic information, but rely instead on some measure of species' presence or absence or their turnover in the fossil record. A common phylogenetic approach to biochronology has been to use “stage of evolution” arguments, whereas more rigorous, cladogram‐based methods have been proposed but have seen little use. Cladistic biochronologic analysis (CBA) is developed here as a new method for determining biochronologic order between paleobiotas based on the phylogenetic relationships of their constituent taxa. CBA is adapted from Brooks' parsimony analysis, and analyzes syntaxon information from clades that transcend a number of paleobiotas to determine relative temporal order among these paleobiotas. Because CBA is based on phylogenetic information, it is suited to problems where a good fossil record is available, but where stratigraphic or chronologic relationships are poorly constrained, such as the terrestrial vertebrate record. A practical example, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of North America, pits CBA against a test case in which the correct temporal order of biotas is known beforehand. The method successfully recovers correct temporal order between paleobiotas with reasonable levels of support, and is also shown to outperform a previously proposed cladistic biochronologic method. In a second example, CBA is used to achieve the first empirical temporal ordination for several Late Cretaceous localities in the Gobi Desert that produce fossils crucial to the understanding of modern amniote clades, but which have poorly resolved temporal relationships. CBA is sensitive to large amounts of extinction and poor sampling of the fossil record, but problems such as gaps in the fossil record (Lazarus taxa) can be dealt with efficiently through a number of a priori and a posteriori scoring techniques. CBA offers a novel approach for biochronologic analysis that is independent of, but complementary to and readily combinable with other chronologic/stratigraphic methods. © The Willi Hennig Society 2007.     

Spatiotemporal sampling patterns in the 230 million year fossil record of terrestrial crocodylomorphs and their impact on diversity

The 24 extant crocodylian species are the remnants of a once much more diverse and widespread clade. Crocodylomorpha has an approximately 230 million year evolutionary history, punctuated by a series of radiations and extinctions. However, the group's fossil record is biased. Previous studies have reconstructed temporal patterns in subsampled crocodylomorph palaeobiodiversity, but have not explicitly examined variation in spatial sampling, nor the quality of this record. We compiled a dataset of all taxonomically diagnosable non‐marine crocodylomorph species (393). Based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all published fossils of each species, we calculated a completeness value for each taxon. Mean average species completeness (56%) is largely consistent within subgroups and for different body size classes, suggesting no significant biases across the crocodylomorph tree. In general, average completeness values are highest in the Mesozoic, with an overall trend of decreasing completeness through time. Many extant taxa are identified in the fossil record from very incomplete remains, but this might be because their provenance closely matches the species’ present‐day distribution, rather than through autapomorphies. Our understanding of nearly all crocodylomorph macroevolutionary ‘events’ is essentially driven by regional patterns, with no global sampling signal. Palaeotropical sampling is especially poor for most of the group's history. Spatiotemporal sampling bias impedes our understanding of several Mesozoic radiations, whereas molecular divergence times for Crocodylia are generally in close agreement with the fossil record. However, the latter might merely be fortuitous, i.e. divergences happened to occur during our ephemeral spatiotemporal sampling windows.     

Evaluating the predicted extinction risk of living amphibian species with the fossil record

Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil‐calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa‐specific Red Listing status.     

Congruent phylogenetic and fossil signatures of mammalian diversification dynamics driven by Tertiary abiotic change

Computational methods for estimating diversification rates from extant species phylogenetic trees have become abundant in evolutionary research. However, little evidence exists about how their outcome compares to a complementary and direct source of information: the fossil record. Furthermore, there is virtually no direct test for the congruence of evolutionary rates based on these two sources. This task is only achievable in clades with both a well‐known fossil record and a complete phylogenetic tree. Here, we compare the evolutionary rates of ruminant mammals as estimated from their vast paleontological record—over 1200 species spanning 50 myr—and their living‐species phylogeny. Significantly, our results revealed that the ruminant's fossil record and phylogeny reflect congruent evolutionary processes. The concordance is especially strong for the last 25 myr, when living groups became a dominant part of ruminant diversity. We found empirical support for previous hypotheses based on simulations and neontological data: The pattern captured by the tree depends on how clade specific the processes are and which clades are involved. Also, we report fossil evidence for a postradiation speciation slowdown coupled with constant, moderate extinction in the Miocene. The recent deceleration in phylogenetic rates is connected to rapid extinction triggered by recent climatic fluctuations.     

A dynamic global equilibrium in carnivoran diversification over 20 million years

The ecological and evolutionary processes leading to present-day biological diversity can be inferred by reconstructing the phylogeny of living organisms, and then modelling potential processes that could have produced this genealogy. A more direct approach is to estimate past processes from the fossil record. The Carnivora (Mammalia) has both substantial extant species richness and a rich fossil record. We compiled species-level data for over 10 000 fossil occurrences of nearly 1400 carnivoran species. Using this compilation, we estimated extinction, speciation and net diversification for carnivorans through the Neogene (22–2 Ma), while simultaneously modelling sampling probability. Our analyses show that caniforms (dogs, bears and relatives) have higher speciation and extinction rates than feliforms (cats, hyenas and relatives), but lower rates of net diversification. We also find that despite continual species turnover, net carnivoran diversification through the Neogene is surprisingly stable, suggesting a saturated adaptive zone, despite restructuring of the physical environment. This result is strikingly different from analyses of carnivoran diversification estimated from extant species alone. Two intervals show elevated diversification rates (13–12 Ma and 4–3 Ma), although the precise causal factors behind the two peaks in carnivoran diversification remain open questions.     

Preservational bias controls the fossil record of pterosaurs

Pterosaurs, a Mesozoic group of flying archosaurs, have become a focal point for debates pertaining to the impact of sampling biases on our reading of the fossil record, as well as the utility of sampling proxies in palaeo‐diversity reconstructions. The completeness of the pterosaur fossil specimens themselves potentially provides additional information that is not captured in existing sampling proxies, and might shed new light on the group's evolutionary history. Here we assess the quality of the pterosaur fossil record via a character completeness metric based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all known skeletons of 172 valid species, with averaged completeness values calculated for each geological stage. The fossil record of pterosaurs is observed to be strongly influenced by the occurrence and distribution of Lagerstätten. Peaks in completeness correlate with Lagerstätten deposits, and a recovered correlation between completeness and observed diversity is rendered non‐significant when Lagerstätten species are excluded. Intervals previously regarded as potential extinction events are shown to lack Lagerstätten and exhibit low completeness values: as such, the apparent low diversity in these intervals might be at least partly the result of poor fossil record quality. A positive correlation between temporal patterns in completeness of Cretaceous pterosaurs and birds further demonstrates the prominent role that Lagerstätten deposits have on the preservation of smaller bodied organisms, contrasting with a lack of correlation with the completeness of large‐bodied sauropodomorphs. However, we unexpectedly find a strong correlation between sauropodomorph and pterosaur completeness within the Triassic–Jurassic, but not the Cretaceous, potentially relating to a shared shift in environmental preference and thus preservation style through time. This study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between various taphonomic controls when correcting for sampling bias, and provides additional evidence for the prominent role of sampling on observed patterns in pterosaur macroevolution.     

Recognizing pulses of extinction from clusters of last occurrences

The distribution of last occurrences of fossil taxa in a stratigraphic column are used to infer the pattern, timing and tempo of extinction from the fossil record. Clusters of last occurrences are commonly interpreted as an abrupt pulse of extinction. However, stratigraphic architecture alone can produce clusters of last occurrences that can be misinterpreted as an extinction pulse. These clusters will typically occur in strata that immediately underlie facies changes and sequence‐stratigraphic surfaces. It has been proposed that a basin‐wide analysis of the fossil record within a sequence‐stratigraphic framework can be used to distinguish between clusters of last occurrences caused solely by extinction pulses from those generated by sequence‐stratigraphic architecture. A basin‐wide approach makes it possible to observe lateral facies shifts in response to sea‐level change, mitigating the effects of stratigraphic architecture. Using computer simulations of plausible Late Ordovician mass‐extinction scenarios tuned to an inferred Late Ordovician sea‐level curve, we show that stratigraphically‐generated clusters of last occurrences are observed even in basin‐wide analyses of the simulated fossil records due to the basin‐wide loss of preferred facies for many taxa. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that by coarsening the stratigraphic resolution to the systems‐tract level and identifying facies preferences of simulated taxa, we can filter out taxa whose last occurrences coincide with the basin‐wide loss of their preferred facies. This enables consistent identification of the underlying extinction pattern for a wide variety of extinction scenarios. Applying this approach to empirical field data can help to constrain underlying extinction patterns from the fossil record.