Coordinated approaches to quantify long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change

Many serious ecosystem consequences of climate change will take decades or even centuries to emerge. Long‐term ecological responses to global change are strongly regulated by slow processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by long‐lived plants, and accumulation of nutrient capitals. Understanding and predicting these processes require experiments on decadal time scales. But decadal experiments by themselves may not be adequate because many of the slow processes have characteristic time scales much longer than experiments can be maintained. This article promotes a coordinated approach that combines long‐term, large‐scale global change experiments with process studies and modeling. Long‐term global change manipulative experiments, especially in high‐priority ecosystems such as tropical forests and high‐latitude regions, are essential to maximize information gain concerning future states of the earth system. The long‐term experiments should be conducted in tandem with complementary process studies, such as those using model ecosystems, species replacements, laboratory incubations, isotope tracers, and greenhouse facilities. Models are essential to assimilate data from long‐term experiments and process studies together with information from long‐term observations, surveys, and space‐for‐time studies along environmental and biological gradients. Future research programs with coordinated long‐term experiments, process studies, and modeling have the potential to be the most effective strategy to gain the best information on long‐term ecosystem dynamics in response to global change.     

Ecological and evolutionary implications of food subsidies from humans

Human activities are the main current driver of global change. From hunter‐gatherers through to Neolithic societies–and particularly in contemporary industrialised countries–humans have (voluntarily or involuntarily) provided other animals with food, often with a high spatio‐temporal predictability. Nowadays, as much as 30–40% of all food produced in Earth is wasted. We argue here that predictable anthropogenic food subsidies (PAFS) provided historically by humans to animals has shaped many communities and ecosystems as we see them nowadays. PAFS improve individual fitness triggering population increases of opportunistic species, which may affect communities, food webs and ecosystems by altering processes such as competition, predator–prey interactions and nutrient transfer between biotopes and ecosystems. We also show that PAFS decrease temporal population variability, increase resilience of opportunistic species and reduce community diversity. Recent environmental policies, such as the regulation of dumps or the ban of fishing discards, constitute natural experiments that should improve our understanding of the role of food supply in a range of ecological and evolutionary processes at the ecosystem level. Comparison of subsidised and non‐subsidised ecosystems can help predict changes in diversity and the related ecosystem services that have suffered the impact of other global change agents.     

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.     

Climate change and geothermal ecosystems: natural laboratories,sentinel systems,and future refugia

Understanding and predicting how global warming affects the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems is a key challenge of the 21st century. Isolated laboratory and field experiments testing global change hypotheses have been criticized for being too small‐scale and overly simplistic, whereas surveys are inferential and often confound temperature with other drivers. Research that utilizes natural thermal gradients offers a more promising approach and geothermal ecosystems in particular, which span a range of temperatures within a single biogeographic area, allow us to take the laboratory into nature rather than vice versa. By isolating temperature from other drivers, its ecological effects can be quantified without any loss of realism, and transient and equilibrial responses can be measured in the same system across scales that are not feasible using other empirical methods. Embedding manipulative experiments within geothermal gradients is an especially powerful approach, informing us to what extent small‐scale experiments can predict the future behaviour of real ecosystems. Geothermal areas also act as sentinel systems by tracking responses of ecological networks to warming and helping to maintain ecosystem functioning in a changing landscape by providing sources of organisms that are preadapted to different climatic conditions. Here, we highlight the emerging use of geothermal systems in climate change research, identify novel research avenues, and assess their roles for catalysing our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to global warming.     

Individual to community-level faunal responses to environmental change from a marine fossil record of Early Miocene global warming

Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (≈ 20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1-4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability.     

海洋酸化对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响研究进展

目前,大气CO2浓度的升高已导致海水pH值比工业革命前下降了约0.1,海水碳酸盐平衡体系随之变化,进而影响珊瑚礁生态系统的健康。近年来的研究表明海洋酸化导致造礁石珊瑚幼体补充和群落恢复更加困难,造礁石珊瑚和其它造礁生物(Reef-building organisms)钙化率降低甚至溶解,乃至影响珊瑚礁鱼类的生命活动。虽然海洋酸化对造礁石珊瑚光合作用的影响不显著,但珊瑚-虫黄藻共生体系会受到一定影响。建议选择典型海区进行长期系统监测,结合室内与原位模拟试验,从个体、种群、群落到系统不同层面,运用生理学和分子生物学技术,结合生态学研究手段,综合研究珊瑚的相应响应,以期深入认识海洋酸化对珊瑚礁生态系统健康(例如珊瑚白化)的影响及其效应。     

Organism activity levels predict marine invertebrate survival during ancient global change extinctions

Multistressor global change, the combined influence of ocean warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, poses a serious threat to marine organisms. Experimental studies imply that organisms with higher levels of activity should be more resilient, but testing this prediction and understanding organism vulnerability at a global scale, over evolutionary timescales, and in natural ecosystems remain challenging. The fossil record, which contains multiple extinctions triggered by multistressor global change, is ideally suited for testing hypotheses at broad geographic, taxonomic, and temporal scales. Here, I assess the importance of activity level for survival of well‐skeletonized benthic marine invertebrates over a 100‐million‐year‐long interval (Permian to Jurassic periods) containing four global change extinctions, including the end‐Permian and end‐Triassic mass extinctions. More active organisms, based on a semiquantitative score incorporating feeding and motility, were significantly more likely to survive during three of the four extinction events (Guadalupian, end‐Permian, and end‐Triassic). In contrast, activity was not an important control on survival during nonextinction intervals. Both the end‐Permian and end‐Triassic mass extinctions also triggered abrupt shifts to increased dominance by more active organisms. Although mean activity gradually returned toward pre‐extinction values, the net result was a permanent ratcheting of ecosystem‐wide activity to higher levels. Selectivity patterns during ancient global change extinctions confirm the hypothesis that higher activity, a proxy for respiratory physiology, is a fundamental control on survival, although the roles of specific physiological traits (such as extracellular pCO₂ or aerobic scope) cannot be distinguished. Modern marine ecosystems are dominated by more active organisms, in part because of selectivity ratcheting during these ancient extinctions, so on average may be less vulnerable to global change stressors than ancient counterparts. However, ancient extinctions demonstrate that even active organisms can suffer major extinction when the intensity of environmental disruption is intense.     

Effects of multiple drivers of ocean global change on the physiology and functional gene expression of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi

Ongoing ocean global change due to anthropogenic activities is causing multiple chemical and physical seawater properties to change simultaneously, which may affect the physiology of marine phytoplankton. The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi is a model species often employed in the study of the marine carbon cycle. The effect of ocean acidification (OA) on coccolithophore calcification has been extensively studied; however, physiological responses to multiple environmental drivers are still largely unknown. Here we examined two‐way and multiple driver effects of OA and other key environmental drivers—nitrate, phosphate, irradiance, and temperature—on the growth, photosynthetic, and calcification rates, and the elemental composition of E. huxleyi. In addition, changes in functional gene expression were examined to understand the molecular mechanisms underpinning the physiological responses. The single driver manipulation experiments suggest decreased nitrate supply being the most important driver regulating E. huxleyi physiology, by significantly reducing the growth, photosynthetic, and calcification rates. In addition, the interaction of OA and decreased nitrate supply (projected for year 2100) had more negative synergistic effects on E. huxleyi physiology than all other two‐way factorial manipulations, suggesting a linkage between the single dominant driver (nitrate) effects and interactive effects with other drivers. Simultaneous manipulation of all five environmental drivers to the conditions of the projected year 2100 had the largest negative effects on most of the physiological metrics. Furthermore, functional genes associated with inorganic carbon acquisition (RubisCO, AEL1, and δCA) and calcification (CAX3, AEL1, PATP, and NhaA2) were most downregulated by the multiple driver manipulation, revealing linkages between responses of functional gene expression and associated physiological metrics. These findings together indicate that for more holistic projections of coccolithophore responses to future ocean global change, it is necessary to understand the relative importance of environmental drivers both individually (i.e., mechanistic understanding) and interactively (i.e., cumulative effect) on coccolithophore physiology.     

Interaction matters: Bottom-up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO₂ and temperature, CO₂ and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%–6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (−8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (−5.0% vs. −9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of −10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (−7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition.     

Resource subsidies between stream and terrestrial ecosystems under global change

Streams and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by permeable boundaries that are crossed by resource subsidies. Although the importance of these subsidies for riverine ecosystems is increasingly recognized, little is known about how they may be influenced by global environmental change. Drawing from available evidence, in this review we propose a conceptual framework to evaluate the effects of global change on the quality and spatiotemporal dynamics of stream–terrestrial subsidies. We illustrate how changes to hydrological and temperature regimes, atmospheric CO₂ concentration, land use and the distribution of nonindigenous species can influence subsidy fluxes by affecting the biology and ecology of donor and recipient systems and the physical characteristics of stream–riparian boundaries. Climate‐driven changes in the physiology and phenology of organisms with complex life cycles will influence their development time, body size and emergence patterns, with consequences for adjacent terrestrial consumers. Also, novel species interactions can modify subsidy dynamics via complex bottom‐up and top‐down effects. Given the seasonality and pulsed nature of subsidies, alterations of the temporal and spatial synchrony of resource availability to consumers across ecosystems are likely to result in ecological mismatches that can scale up from individual responses, to communities, to ecosystems. Similarly, altered hydrology, temperature, CO₂ concentration and land use will modify the recruitment and quality of riparian vegetation, the timing of leaf abscission and the establishment of invasive riparian species. Along with morphological changes to stream–terrestrial boundaries, these will alter the use and fluxes of allochthonous subsidies associated with stream ecosystems. Future research should aim to understand how subsidy dynamics will be affected by key drivers of global change, including agricultural intensification, increasing water use and biotic homogenization. Our conceptual framework based on the match–mismatch between donor and recipient organisms may facilitate understanding of the multiple effects of global change and aid in the development of future research questions.     

A decade of climate change experiments on marine organisms: procedures,patterns and problems

The first decade of the new millennium saw a flurry of experiments to establish a mechanistic understanding of how climate change might transform the global biota, including marine organisms. However, the biophysical properties of the marine environment impose challenges to experiments, which can weaken their inference space. To facilitate strengthening the experimental evidence for possible ecological consequences of climate change, we reviewed the physical, biological and procedural scope of 110 marine climate change experiments published between 2000 and 2009. We found that 65% of these experiments only tested a single climate change factor (warming or acidification), 54% targeted temperate organisms, 58% were restricted to a single species and 73% to benthic invertebrates. In addition, 49% of the reviewed experiments had issues with the experimental design, principally related to replication of the main test‐factors (temperature or pH), and only 11% included field assessments of processes or associated patterns. Guiding future research by this inventory of current strengths and weaknesses will expand the overall inference space of marine climate change experiments. Specifically, increased effort is required in five areas: (i) the combined effects of concurrent climate and non‐climate stressors; (ii) responses of a broader range of species, particularly from tropical and polar regions as well as primary producers, pelagic invertebrates, and fish; (iii) species interactions and responses of species assemblages, (iv) reducing pseudo‐replication in controlled experiments; and (v) increasing realism in experiments through broad‐scale observations and field experiments. Attention in these areas will improve the generality and accuracy of our understanding of climate change as a driver of biological change in marine ecosystems.     

Testing the functional significance of microbial composition in natural communities

Ecologists have long studied the relationship between biotic composition and ecosystem functioning in larger organisms; however, only recently has this relationship been investigated widely in microorganisms. Recent studies are reviewed within a framework of three experimental approaches that are often used to study larger organisms: environmental treatment, common garden, and reciprocal transplant experiments. Although the composition of microorganisms cannot be easily manipulated in the field, applying these approaches to intact microbial communities can begin to tease apart the effects of microbial composition from environmental parameters on ecosystem functioning. The challenges in applying these approaches to microorganisms are highlighted and it is discussed how the experimental approach and duration affects a study's interpretation. In general, long-term environmental treatment experiments identify correlative relationships between microbial composition and ecosystem functioning, whereas short-term common garden experiments demonstrate that microbial composition influences ecosystem functioning. Finally, reciprocal transplants simultaneously test for interactive effects of the environment and composition on functioning. The studies reviewed provide evidence that, at least in some cases, microbial composition influences ecosystem functioning. It is concluded that whole-community experiments offer a way to test whether information about microbial composition will help predict ecosystem responses to global change.     

陆地生态系统凋落物分解对全球气候变暖的响应

陆地生态系统凋落物分解是全球碳收支的一个重要组成部分, 主要受气候、凋落物质量和土壤生物群落的综合控制。科学家们普遍认为全球气候变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生复杂而深远的影响。该文结合凋落物分解试验的常用方法——缩微试验、原位模拟实验和自然环境梯度实验, 归纳现有研究结果, 意在揭示全球气候变化对陆地生态系统凋落物分解的直接影响(温度对凋落物分解速率的影响)和间接影响(温度对凋落物质量、土壤微生物群落及植被型的影响)的普遍规律。各种研究方法都表明: 在水分条件理想的情况下, 温度升高往往能加快凋落物的分解速率; 原位模拟实验中, 凋落物分解速率因物种、增温方法和地理方位而异; 全球气候变化能改变凋落物质量, 但可能不会在短期内影响凋落物的分解速率; 凋落物质量和可分解性的种间差异远大于增温所引发的表型响应差异, 那么, 气候变化所引发的植物群落结构和物种组成的变化将对陆地生态系统凋落物分解产生更强烈的影响; 土壤生物群落如何响应全球气候变化, 进而怎样影响凋落物分解过程, 这些都还存在着极大的不确定性。     

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

1. Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities.
2. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios.
3. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia.
4. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

     

Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems

The main drivers of global environmental change (CO₂ enrichment, nitrogen deposition, climate, biotic invasions and land use) cause extinctions and alter species distributions, and recent evidence shows that they exert pervasive impacts on various antagonistic and mutualistic interactions among species. In this review, we synthesize data from 688 published studies to show that these drivers often alter competitive interactions among plants and animals, exert multitrophic effects on the decomposer food web, increase intensity of pathogen infection, weaken mutualisms involving plants, and enhance herbivory while having variable effects on predation. A recurrent finding is that there is substantial variability among studies in both the magnitude and direction of effects of any given GEC driver on any given type of biotic interaction. Further, we show that higher order effects among multiple drivers acting simultaneously create challenges in predicting future responses to global environmental change, and that extrapolating these complex impacts across entire networks of species interactions yields unanticipated effects on ecosystems. Finally, we conclude that in order to reliably predict the effects of GEC on community and ecosystem processes, the greatest single challenge will be to determine how biotic and abiotic context alters the direction and magnitude of GEC effects on biotic interactions.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Climate change and freshwater biodiversity: detected patterns, future trends and adaptations in northern regions

Current rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been rapid at the levels of ecosystems, communities, and species. Most research on climate change effects on biodiversity has concentrated on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species’ distributions have already been detected in response to climate change. The studies that have considered organisms in the freshwater realm have also shown that freshwater biodiversity is highly vulnerable to climate change, with extinction rates and extirpations of freshwater species matching or exceeding those suggested for better‐known terrestrial taxa. There is some evidence that freshwater species have exhibited range shifts in response to climate change in the last millennia, centuries, and decades. However, the effects are typically species‐specific, with cold‐water organisms being generally negatively affected and warm‐water organisms positively affected. However, detected range shifts are based on findings from a relatively low number of taxonomic groups, samples from few freshwater ecosystems, and few regions. The lack of a wider knowledge hinders predictions of the responses of much of freshwater biodiversity to climate change and other major anthropogenic stressors. Due to the lack of detailed distributional information for most freshwater taxonomic groups and the absence of distribution‐climate models, future studies should aim at furthering our knowledge about these aspects of the ecology of freshwater organisms. Such information is not only important with regard to the basic ecological issue of predicting the responses of freshwater species to climate variables, but also when assessing the applied issue of the capacity of protected areas to accommodate future changes in the distributions of freshwater species. This is a huge challenge, because most current protected areas have not been delineated based on the requirements of freshwater organisms. Thus, the requirements of freshwater organisms should be taken into account in the future delineation of protected areas and in the estimation of the degree to which protected areas accommodate freshwater biodiversity in the changing climate and associated environmental changes.     

全球变化对资源环境及生态系统影响的生态学理论基础

随着全球变化研究的深入,面向社会可持续发展的全球变化风险与应对、全球变化对资源环境要素时空配置与生态系统的影响评估等应用性问题正成为全球变化领域的新趋势。基于生态学范畴,本文重点梳理了资源环境的涵义及其构成要素：资源是自养生物利用无机物制造有机物及能量和物质在生物间传递过程中所消耗的一切实体,包括无机资源(太阳辐射、CO₂、O₂、水和矿质元素等)和有机资源(作为其他生物的食物资源)两类,而环境不能被生物有机体消耗或用竭。此外,阐述了全球变化组成及其引发的资源环境要素变化特征,以及当前关于生态系统对全球变化响应的研究进展,以期从生态学原理角度科学认知全球变化对资源环境及生态系统的影响过程与机制,为全球变化风险应对实践提供生态学理论基础。     

Characterising the impacts of emerging energy development on wildlife,with an eye towards mitigation

Global demand for energy is projected to increase by 40% in the next 20 years, and largely will be met with alternative and unconventional sources. Development of these resources causes novel disturbances that strongly impact terrestrial ecosystems and wildlife. To effectively position ecologists to address this prevalent conservation challenge, we reviewed the literature on the ecological ramifications of this dominant driver of global land‐use change, consolidated results for its mitigation and highlighted knowledge gaps. Impacts varied widely, underscoring the importance of area and species‐specific studies. The most commonly reported impacts included behavioural responses and direct mortality. Examinations of mitigation were limited, but common easements included (1) reduction of the development footprint and human activity, (2) maintenance of undeveloped, ‘refuge’ habitat and (3) alteration of activity during sensitive periods. Problematically, the literature was primarily retrospective, focused on few species, countries, and ecoregions, and fraught with generalisations from weak inference. We advocate future studies take a comprehensive approach incorporating a mechanistic understanding of the interplay between development‐caused impacts and species ecology that will enable effective mitigation. Key areas for future research vital to securing a sustainable energy future in the face of development‐related global change are outlined.     

Shifting species interactions in terrestrial dryland ecosystems under altered water availability and climate change

Species interactions play key roles in linking the responses of populations, communities, and ecosystems to environmental change. For instance, species interactions are an important determinant of the complexity of changes in trophic biomass with variation in resources. Water resources are a major driver of terrestrial ecology and climate change is expected to greatly alter the distribution of this critical resource. While previous studies have documented strong effects of global environmental change on species interactions in general, responses can vary from region to region. Dryland ecosystems occupy more than one‐third of the Earth's land mass, are greatly affected by changes in water availability, and are predicted to be hotspots of climate change. Thus, it is imperative to understand the effects of environmental change on these globally significant ecosystems. Here, we review studies of the responses of population‐level plant‐plant, plant‐herbivore, and predator‐prey interactions to changes in water availability in dryland environments in order to develop new hypotheses and predictions to guide future research. To help explain patterns of interaction outcomes, we developed a conceptual model that views interaction outcomes as shifting between (1) competition and facilitation (plant‐plant), (2) herbivory, neutralism, or mutualism (plant‐herbivore), or (3) neutralism and predation (predator‐prey), as water availability crosses physiological, behavioural, or population‐density thresholds. We link our conceptual model to hypothetical scenarios of current and future water availability to make testable predictions about the influence of changes in water availability on species interactions. We also examine potential implications of our conceptual model for the relative importance of top‐down effects and the linearity of patterns of change in trophic biomass with changes in water availability. Finally, we highlight key research needs and some possible broader impacts of our findings. Overall, we hope to stimulate and guide future research that links changes in water availability to patterns of species interactions and the dynamics of populations and communities in dryland ecosystems.