The projected effects of climatic and vegetation changes on the distribution and diversity of Southeast Asian bats

Southeast‐Asia (SEA) constitutes a global biodiversity hotspot, but is exposed to extensive deforestation and faces numerous threats to its biodiversity. Climate change represents a major challenge to the survival and viability of species, and the potential consequences must be assessed to allow for mitigation. We project the effects of several climate change scenarios on bat diversity, and predict changes in range size for 171 bat species throughout SEA. We predict decreases in species richness in all areas with high species richness (>80 species) at 2050–2080, using bioclimatic IPCC scenarios A2 (a severe scenario, continuously increasing human population size, regional changes in economic growth) and B1 (the ‘greenest’ scenario, global population peaking mid‐century). We also predicted changes in species richness in scenarios that project vegetation changes in addition to climate change up to 2050. At 2050 and 2080, A2 and B1 scenarios incorporating changes in climatic factors predicted that 3–9% species would lose all currently suitable niche space. When considering total extents of species distribution in SEA (including possible range expansions), 2–6% of species may have no suitable niche space in 2050–2080. When potential vegetation and climate changes were combined only 1% of species showed no changes in their predicted ranges by 2050. Although some species are projected to expand ranges, this may be ecologically impossible due to potential barriers to dispersal, especially for species with poor dispersal ability. Only 1–13% of species showed no projected reductions in their current range under bioclimatic scenarios. An effective way to facilitate range shift for dispersal‐limited species is to improve landscape connectivity. If current trends in environmental change continue and species cannot expand their ranges into new areas, then the majority of bat species in SEA may show decreases in range size and increased extinction risk within the next century.     

Coupled Ecosystem/Supply Chain Modelling of Fish Products from Sea to Shelf: The Peruvian Anchoveta Case

Sustainability assessment of food supply chains is relevant for global sustainable development. A framework is proposed for analysing fishfood (fish products for direct human consumption) supply chains with local or international scopes. It combines a material flow model (including an ecosystem dimension) of the supply chains, calculation of sustainability indicators (environmental, socio-economic, nutritional), and finally multi-criteria comparison of alternative supply chains (e.g. fates of landed fish) and future exploitation scenarios. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is the starting point for various local and global supply chains, especially via reduction of anchoveta into fishmeal and oil, used worldwide as a key input in livestock and fish feeds. The Peruvian anchoveta supply chains are described, and the proposed methodology is used to model them. Three scenarios were explored: status quo of fish exploitation (Scenario 1), increase in anchoveta landings for food (Scenario 2), and radical decrease in total anchoveta landings to allow other fish stocks to prosper (Scenario 3). It was found that Scenario 2 provided the best balance of sustainability improvements among the three scenarios, but further refinement of the assessment is recommended. In the long term, the best opportunities for improving the environmental and socio-economic performance of Peruvian fisheries are related to sustainability-improving management and policy changes affecting the reduction industry. Our approach provides the tools and quantitative results to identify these best improvement opportunities.     

BEVSIM: Battery electric vehicle sustainability impact assessment model

To achieve climate neutrality ambitions, greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector need to be reduced by at least 90% by 2050. To support industry and policy makers on mitigating actions on climate goals it is important to holistically compare and reduce life cycle environmental impacts of road passenger vehicles. A web-based sustainability assessment tool named battery electric vehicle sustainability impact assessment model, BEVSIM, is developed to assess the environmental, circularity, and economic performance of the materials, sub-systems, parts, and individual components of battery electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles. This tool allows to measure and compare impacts resulting from recycling technologies, end-of-life scenarios, and future scenarios resulting from changes in grid mixes. This paper explains the purpose of the tool, its functionality and design as well as the underlying assumptions.     

Developing an indicator system to foster sustainability in strategic planning in China: A case study of Pudong New Area,Shanghai

This paper reports how the use of a new integrated theoretical framework underlain by the concept of sustainability to establish an indicator system for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) can effectively address the quest for urban sustainability of Chinese cities. The usefulness of the new framework was justified by a trial implementation of the framework in an SEA of development in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, in which the indicator system was capable of providing both retrospective and prospective insights of the environmental challenges created by economic and social development in qualitative and highly legible terms. The study affirms the constructive role of SEA on National Economic and Social Development Planning in both the socio-economic and environmental sustainability and underlines the importance of carefully-crafted indicator systems to promote the SEA practices in China.     

A benchmarking and assessment framework to operationalise ecological indicators based on time series analysis

The call for ecosystem considerations in marine management has instigated the use of ecosystem indicators. Many ecosystem indicators have been suggested under new policy frameworks such as the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive or the Common Fisheries Policy. But many of these indicators are still under development and cannot be considered as yet operational for environmental assessments. A common reason for this lack of operationability is the absence of valid assessment benchmarks. This study introduces a two-stage approach for the benchmarking and assessment of time series (TSBA) against a priori chosen rationale of improvement or maintenance of current conditions. TSBA uses breakpoint- and trend-analysis to obtain long-term benchmarks and assess short term progress. Depending on the outcome of both analyses the action requirements for management can be determined. The method is exemplified on a case study on the size-structure of large North Sea gadoid stocks, which are considered as being sensitive to the impacts of fishing. Three out of six stocks reached their assessment benchmarks, while the three other stocks failed. TSBA is generic and can be applied to any indicator used within any marine policy assessment framework. A strength–weaknesses–opportunity–threat analysis (SWOT) investigated the advantages and disadvantages of TSBA in the context of the currently high political demand of operational ecosystem indicators. Contrary to benchmarks derived from ecological concepts or pressure-state relationship TSBA benchmarks are not specifically linked to limits of resilience or sustainability. However, TSBA may be especially useful in situations where assessment benchmarks from other sources will not be readily available or are associated with high uncertainty.     

基于SD模型的上海市湿地生态系统服务变化过程与情景研究

湿地是上海市城市生态系统的重要组成部分,但其面积在过去几十年间显著减少,影响了城市生态系统服务的供给。通过构建系统动力学模型模拟上海市湿地生态系统服务变化的过程与未来情景。研究表明:(1)该模型有效且具有实际仿真的可操作性,并可根据政策要求设定参数,对上海市湿地生态系统服务价值的变化进行模拟与预测,结果可为上海市制定湿地保护或生态规划政策提供可行性分析。(2)对4种不同"湿地面积增长率"的情景进行模拟,结果显示了未来经济以不同增速条件发展时湿地生态系统服务价值的变化:无论哪种情景,文化服务价值最高,占总价值的64%以上,且在研究时段内呈增长趋势;调节服务价值次之,呈增长趋势;供给服务价值最低,呈下降趋势。(3)到2025年,按照现行的政策,上海市湿地面积将减少至37.92×10~4hm~2,届时湿地生态系统服务价值为4711.56×10~8元,占上海市国内生产总值的20%,人均1.95×10~4元。     

Human Health, Well-Being, and Global Ecological Scenarios

This article categorizes four kinds of adverse effects to human health caused by ecosystem change: direct, mediated, modulated, and systems failure. The effects are categorized on their scale, complexity, and lag-time. Some but not all of these can be classified as resulting from reduced ecosystem services. The articles also explores the impacts that different socioeconomic–ecologic scenarios are likely to have on human health and how changes to human health may, in turn, influence the unfolding of four different plausible future scenarios. We provide examples to show that our categorization is a useful taxonomy for understanding the complex relationships between ecosystems and human well-being and for predicting how future ecosystem changes may affect human health.Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the World Health Organization. This article has been subjected to EPA review and approved for publication but does not necessarily reflect EPA policy.     

Global solid biomass trade for energy by 2020: an assessment of potential import streams and supply costs to North-West Europe under different sustainability constraints

The expected use of solid biomass for large-scale heat and power production across North–West Europe (NW EU) has led to discussions about its sustainability, especially due to the increasing import dependence of the sector. While individual Member States and companies have put forward sustainability criteria, it remains unclear how different requirements will influence the availability and cost of solid biomass and thus how specific regions will satisfy their demand in a competitive global market. We combined a geospatially explicit least-cost biomass supply model with a linear optimization solver to assess global solid biomass trade streams by 2020 with a particular focus on NW EU. We apply different demand and supply scenarios representing varying policy developments and sustainability requirements. We find that the projected EU solid biomass demand by 2020 can be met across all scenarios, almost exclusively via domestic biomass. The exploitation of domestic agricultural residue and energy crop potentials, however, will need to increase sharply. Given sustainability requirements for solid biomass as for liquid biofuels, extra-EU imports may reach 236 PJ by 2020, i.e., 400% of their 2010 levels. Intra-EU trade is expected to grow with stricter sustainability requirements up to 548 PJ, i.e., 280% of its 2010 levels by 2020. Increasing sustainability requirements can have different effects on trade portfolios across NW EU. Excluding pulpwood pellets may drive the supply costs of import dependent countries, foremost the Netherlands and the UK, whereas excluding additional forest biomass may entail higher costs for Germany and Denmark which rely on regional biomass. Excluding solid biomass fractions may create short-term price hikes. Our modeling results are strongly influenced by parameterization choices, foremost assumed EU biomass supply volumes and costs and assumed relations between criteria and supply. The model framework is suited for the inclusion of dynamic supply–demand interactions and other world regions.     

Disaggregating the Power Generation Sector for Input‐Output Life Cycle Assessment

The electric power industry plays a critical role in the economy and the environment, and it is important to examine the economic, environmental, and policy implications of current and future power generation scenarios. However, the tools that exist to perform the life cycle assessments are either too complex or too aggregated to be useful for these types of activities. In this work, we build upon the framework of existing input‐output (I‐O) models by adding data about the electric power industry and disaggregating this single sector into additional sectors, each representing a specific portion of electric power industry operations. For each of these disaggregated sectors, we create a process‐specific supply chain and a set of emission factors that allow calculation of the environmental effects of that sector's output. This new model allows a much better fit for scenarios requiring more specificity than is possible with the current I‐O model.     

禁牧政策对宁夏盐池县农业生态系统服务影响的能值分析

农牧交错区农业可持续发展问题一直是我国区域农业研究的重要课题,以典型北方农牧交错区宁夏盐池县为例,利用农业生态系统能值分析框架,评估盐池县1991—2016年农业生态系统正反服务,揭示禁牧政策对农业可持续发展的影响。研究结果表明:(1) 1991—2016年盐池县农业投入能值和农业生态系统正反服务能值一直处于增长的趋势,禁牧政策实施以后增长速度高于禁牧之前,其中农业投入能值的增加主要是由于经济反馈能值投入的增加。(2)根据Pearson相关性分析,盐池县农业生态系统服务和反服务在0.01水平(双侧)呈显著的强正相关,农业生态系统服务和反服务具有相同的变化趋势。(3)生态环境的改善、经济反馈能值和农业灌溉面积的增加,可以增强北方农牧交错区农业抵御气候波动的能力。(4)盐池县农业可持续性高于全国和典型农区的平均水平,禁牧政策实施之前盐池县农业可持续性表现出稳定的下降趋势,而禁牧政策实施以后其可持续性表现为上升的趋势,禁牧政策的实施已初步实现农业生产的生态经济效益。     

An aggregation framework to link indicators associated with multifunctional land use to the stakeholder evaluation of policy options

In the last decade efforts have been carried out by the scientific community aimed at building integrated frameworks to support the decision-making process when sustainability issues are addressed. This paper proposes a further advancement in integrated assessment procedures by setting up an operational multi-scale and transparent framework, which comprises the assessment of European regions in terms of sustainability, and the identification of the impact that policy options might have on the sustainability of these regions. The framework is designed for use in ex ante sustainability impact assessment of policy scenarios on multifunctionality of land use and integrates economic, environmental and social issues across a variety of sectors (agriculture, forestry, transport, tourism and energy). The proposed method provides a conceptual framework applicable at different scales (European, regional), and takes into account the great variability of European regions. The described methodology is based on linear additive models to weight and aggregate selected indicators to a set of land use functions identified to describe the goods and services provided by the different land uses that summarise the most relevant economic, environmental and social issues of a region. The framework is designed to allow the evaluation of impacts at an international scale (e.g. the European Union), or on selected regions.The aggregation framework can be used to evaluate the impact that policy options have on the sustainability of multifunctional land use systems with competing demands. A conceptual envelope, called the “trade-off evaluation space”, delineates all possible developments in the functions of the land. The sustainability limits identify the subset of ‘acceptable’ policy options within the trade-off evaluation space, so that the distance of each land use function from sustainability limits can be estimated and trade-offs between the different functions of the multifunctional land use system can be identified. The proposed methodology is adaptable to different contexts: if the assumption is taken that all land use functions are equally weighted the framework can be used to analyse policy cases and take decisions on policy options at the European or regional level. However, at the local-scale the framework can also be applied through a participatory approach and the distribution of weights can be rediscussed with local stakeholders. In both cases the proposed system can be used as a tool for discussion among all interested parties.     

Management framework for sustainable development indicators in the State of Selangor, Malaysia

The perception that better information on environment and development is the determinant of effective rational decision- and policy-making processes provide the impetus for global interest in the use of sustainable development indicators (SDIs). Accordingly, proposals for SDIs are framed either on organisational goals or on disciplinary and multidisciplinary theories—aiming to reduce uncertainties in choosing the best alternative among a set of options concerning sustainability. Despite the fact that many SDI initiatives are explicitly aimed at improving policy-making, it is not apparent that political settings and organisational realities are taken into consideration in designing the framework for sustainability assessment. Ignoring the realities of policy-making dynamics can result in poor institutionalisation of the SDI development process, and therefore reduced impact of indicators. Linkage of SDIs to policy processes must also take into account the complex role of information in policy processes. The importance of societal values, cultural contexts and behaviour of bureaucracies must be understood and used to assist the assessment of progress towards sustainability using SDIs. Essentially, objective knowledge must be tampered with pragmatism in governance. This paper highlights the case of SDI development in the state of Selangor where the notion of instrumental rationality is balanced with the ‘incrementalism’ of the policy process that provided the foundation for institutionalising the reporting and use of SDIs. The ideals and paradoxes of participatory decision-making, the principles of the rational model and decision-making processes within a state government are critically examined.     

Structural basis for the neutralization and specificity of Staphylococcal enterotoxin B against its MHC Class II binding site

Staphylococcal enterotoxin (SE) B is among the potent toxins produced by Staphylococcus aureus that cause toxic shock syndrome (TSS), which can result in multi-organ failure and death. Currently, neutralizing antibodies have been shown to be effective immunotherapeutic agents against this toxin, but the structural basis of the neutralizing mechanism is still unknown. In this study, we generated a neutralizing monoclonal antibody, 3E2, against SEB, and analyzed the crystal structure of the SEB-3E2 Fab complex. Crystallographic analysis suggested that the neutralizing epitope overlapped with the MHC II molecule binding site on SEB, and thus 3E2 could inhibit SEB function by preventing interaction with the MHC II molecule. Mutagenesis studies were done on SEB, as well as the related Staphylococcus aureus toxins SEA and SEC. These studies revealed that tyrosine (Y)46 and lysine (K)71 residues of SEB are essential to specific antibody–antigen recognition and neutralization. Substitution of Y at SEA glutamine (Q)49, which corresponds to SEB Y46, increased both 3E2’s binding to SEA in vitro and the neutralization of SEA in vivo. These results suggested that SEB Y46 is responsible for distinguishing SEB from SEA. These findings may be helpful for the development of antibody-based therapy for SEB-induced TSS.     

Ecological accounting for an integrated “pig–biogas–fish” system based on emergetic indicators

With the expansion of urbanization in China, the integrated biogas-utilization system has gained its popularity for both renewable energy production and multi-level utilization of organic waste. To appraise the ecological performance of the integrated biogas system, systematic accounting is undertaken for an integrated “pig–biogas–fish” system in Hubei province, China. Based on Odum's concept of embodied solar energy as a unified measure for environmental resources, human labors and purchased goods, a set of emergetic indicators are employed to quantify the system sustainability. The results reveal that in a 20-year designed lifetime scenario, 94.69% of the total emergy inputs for the “pig–biogas–fish” system are attributed to purchased social resources. Three kinds of products, namely pig, biogas, fish are taken into consideration, and transformity of the “pig–biogas–fish” system is calculated as 1.26E + 05 seJ/J. Compared with the Chinese conventional agriculture system, the integrated biogas system shows a higher sustainability. Given that most biogas systems have a lifespan less than 20 years, for the “pig–biogas–fish” system, six other scenarios with different lifespans are studied to investigate the impact of the lifespan on sustainability. The findings suggest that the “pig–biogas–fish” system should be well operated for at least 8 years to prove its advantage in ecological economy over the conventional agriculture system. This has essential policy implications that local government should strengthen subsequent management on biogas production to extend the practical service life of the biogas system.     

An overview of sustainability assessment methodologies

Sustainability indicators and composite index are increasingly recognised as a useful tool for policy making and public communication in conveying information on countries and corporate performance in fields such as environment, economy, society, or technological improvement. By visualizing phenomena and highlighting trends, sustainability indicators simplify, quantify, analyse and communicate otherwise complex and complicated information.There are number of initiatives working on indicators and frameworks for sustainable development (SD). This article provides an overview various sustainability indices applied in policy practice. The paper also compiles the information related to sustainability indices formulation strategy, scaling, normalisation, weighting and aggregation methodology.     

Considerations for the development of a terrestrial index of ecological integrity

Ecological systems are composed of complex biological and physical components that are difficult to understand and to measure. However, effective management actions and policy decisions require information on the status, condition, and trends of ecosystems. Multiple levels of information are needed to make effective decisions and the ideal indicators for measuring ecosystem integrity will incorporate information from multiple dimensions of the ecosystem. A terrestrial index of ecological integrity would be a useful tool for ecosystem managers and decision makers. The ideal requirements of the terrestrial index of ecosystem integrity (TIEI) are that it be comprehensive and multi-scale, grounded in natural history, relevant and helpful, able to integrate concerns from aquatic and terrestrial ecology, and that it be flexible and measurable.The objective of this research is to investigate if an index, or indices, could be developed that would summarize the condition of ecosystems so that changes can be tracked over time and this information utilized as a tool to support environmental decision making.     

A PCA-based method for construction of composite sustainability indicators

Purpose

Sustainable manufacturing is practiced globally as a comprehensive strategy for improving the sustainability performance of the manufacturing industry. While sustainability is characterized into such three dimensions as economic, environmental, and social, currently, there is no quantitative method yet to measure the so-called ??sustainability?? in the manufacturing industry. The objective of this research is to develop a comprehensive and effective quantitative method to measure the overall sustainability performance of manufacturing companies.

Methods

In this paper, an integrated methodology is presented for the development of composite sustainability indicators based on principal component analysis (PCA). In developing this integrated approach, both industry and academia surveys are conducted to identify what sustainability indicators are favored by the sustainable manufacturing community. A unique index is then generated to measure the overall sustainability performance of industrial practices. The methodology can be used for benchmarking the overall sustainability performance of various manufacturing companies.

Results

A case study is conducted on a total of 11 global electronic manufacturing companies. The overall sustainability performance of these companies are measured, benchmarked, and ranked. The results showed that PCA is an effective approach for constructing composite sustainability indicators across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.

Conclusions

From this research, it is found that industry and academia have different views on the sustainability measurement, evidenced by different weights put on the same indicator in industry and academia. The case study demonstrated that the methodology presented in this paper is an effective tool for comprehensive measurement of sustainability performance of manufacturing companies. Strengths and weaknesses of each company can be identified. Then, the recommended improvements can be suggested based on the study of each of the individual indicators.     

An evolving role for ecological indicators: From documenting ecological conditions to monitoring drivers and policy responses

Monitoring the health of ecosystems is imperative to achieve sustainability. In this, ecological indicators have a crucial and evolving role to play. Although indicators are vital to monitoring the state and trends of ecosystems and the consequences of anthropogenic pressures, they may not lead to necessary action unless they are coupled with identification and monitoring of drivers. This will provide a basis for evaluating the effectiveness of policy responses, thus providing information that is actionable by policy makers and the public. We argue that expanding the role of indicators will render them far more effective as a resource for combating ecosystem degradation. Using the Baltic Sea as an example we analyse the nature of this challenge and provide concrete solutions to problems hindering the effectiveness of ecological indicator use in restoring health to large-scale ecosystems.     

Global Climate Change Adaptation Priorities for Biodiversity and Food Security

International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.     

A parcel-scale assessment tool to measure sustainability through urban ecosystem components: The MUSIX model

In recent years a number of urban sustainability assessment frameworks are developed to better inform policy formulation and decision-making processes. This paper introduces one of these attempts in developing a comprehensive assessment tool—i.e., Micro-level Urban-ecosystem Sustainability IndeX (MUSIX). Being an indicator-based indexing model, MUSIX investigates the environmental impacts of land-uses on urban sustainability by measuring urban ecosystem components in local scale. The paper presents the methodology of MUSIX and demonstrates the performance of the model in a pilot test-bed—i.e., in Gold Coast, Australia. The model provides useful insights on the sustainability performance of the test-bed area. The parcel-scale findings of the indicators are used to identify local problems considering six main issues of urban development—i.e., hydrology; ecology; pollution; location; design, and; efficiency. The composite index score is used to propose betterment strategies to guide the development of local area plans in conjunction with the City's Planning Scheme. In overall, this study has shown that parcel-scale environmental data provides an overview of the local sustainability in urban areas as in the example of Gold Coast, which can also be used for setting environmental policy, objectives and targets.