Plant extinction dynamics in an insular metacommunity

Changes in the composition of local communities through time (i.e. species turnover) is a common phenomenon in insular biology. However, the mechanisms promoting variation in species turnover, both among islands and among species, are poorly understood. In an effort to better understand the causes of variation in species turnover, we evaluated the colonization and extinction dynamics of plant populations on 18 small islands off the west coast of Canada. In 1997, we quantified total population sizes of 10 woody angiosperm species. A decade later, we resampled islands to test whether: 1) species turnover occurred, 2) colonization events were offset by extinction events, 2) variation in extinction rates among islands was associated with population sizes, average plant heights, island area, island isolation or each island's exposure to ocean-born disturbances, and 3) variation in extinction rates among species was associated with plant life history traits. Results showed that extinction events outnumbered colonization events, suggesting that the metacommunity is in 'disequilibrium'. Variation in extinction rates among islands was unrelated to island area and isolation. However, extinction rates increased with exposure to ocean-born disturbances and decreased with both initial population sizes and average plant heights. Species with thicker, tougher leaves (i.e. high leaf mass per area) were less prone to extinction than species with thinner, more papery leaves. Overall results indicate that species turnover is common and that it is generated primarily by extinction. Variation in extinction rates appears to result from an interaction between among-island effects (exposure, population size and plant stature) and among-species effects (leaf toughness), suggesting that ocean-born disturbances play a key role in determining metacommunity structure.     

Life-history models of extinction: a test with island spiders

This study analyzes extinction patterns for two species of orb spiders monitored annually on 77 islands over a continuous 20-yr period. One species, Argiope argentata, has large populations sometimes crashing quickly to extinction and a much weaker relation of extinction likelihood to population size than does the other species, Metepeira datona. Demographic models were built for both species and matched against observations. Differences between the species in life-history traits-estimated with measurements from the field-together with incorporation of demographic stochasticity, a population ceiling, and environmental stochasticity, were necessary to fit the observed extinction curves. As predicted from life-history patterns, long-term population growth rates (and hence predicted extinction probabilities) are relatively very sensitive to values of juvenile survivorship. Models are also sensitive to variation in the population ceiling and environmental noise, which tend to act in a complementary manner. A simple model with no age structure was able to fit the data on large initial population sizes but not on small initial population sizes, showing that life cycle characteristics interact with the various sources of stochasticity and hence have to be taken into account to produce a precise model of the extinction process.     

Nested distribution of amphibians in the Zhoushan archipelago, China: can selective extinction cause nested subsets of species?

Because of their poor dispersal ability, amphibians are well suited for testing the selective extinction theory on islands. Amphibian fauna in the Zhoushan archipelago, China, exhibit a high level of nestedness (C = 0.893), and the species number is lower on islands than on similar sized areas on the mainland. No correlation was found between island-specific species richness and the nearest distance from a larger island, distance from the mainland or density of human population. These results suggest that no amphibian colonisation has occurred in the archipelago since island isolation 7000–9000 years ago. Furthermore, the results imply that selective extinction contributes to the nestedness of amphibians in the Zhoushan archipelago. The incidence of a species on the islands is significantly correlated with log area of the smallest island occupied by the species and the number of provinces on the Chinese mainland in which the species occur. However, there is no correlation with average body length of adults and island occurrence. It is concluded that (1) the area of the smallest island occupied by a species is a good estimate of the minimum area for a viable population of the species and a good predictor of species incidence on islands, (2) species with a restricted distribution range are more vulnerable to extinction from islands than those with a wide distribution range and (3) the effect of body size on occurrence on the islands is uncertain, and may be specific to the archipelago and taxa studied. The observed nestedness of amphibian assemblages has two implications for conservation: (1) not only can all the species found in several small reserves be found on a large reserve of the same total size, but additional species can be found on the single large reserve; (2) for a reserve to maintain viable populations of all species in a region it should be at least as large as the smallest island occupied by the most vulnerable species. Received: 16 December 1996 / Accepted: 22 September 1997     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

Dung beetle assemblages on tropical land‐bridge islands: small island effect and vulnerable species

Aim Using dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae) in a tropical land‐bridge island system, we test for the small island effect (SIE) in the species–area relationship and evaluate its effects on species richness and community composition. We also examine the determinants of species richness across island size and investigate the traits of dung beetle species in relation to their local extinction vulnerability following forest fragmentation. Location Lake Kenyir, a hydroelectric reservoir in north‐eastern Peninsular Malaysia. Methods We sampled dung beetles using human dung baited pitfall traps on 24 land‐bridge islands and three mainland sites. We used regression tree analyses to test for the SIE, as well as species traits related to local rarity, as an indication of extinction vulnerability. We employed generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine determinants for species richness at different scales and compared the results with those from conventional linear and breakpoint regressions. Community analyses included non‐metric multidimensional scaling, partial Mantel tests, nestedness analysis and abundance spectra. Results Regression tree analysis revealed an area threshold at 35.8 ha indicating an SIE. Tree basal area was the most important predictor of species richness on small islands (<35.8 ha). Results from GLMs supported these findings, with isolation and edge index also being important for small islands. The SIE also manifested in patterns of dung beetle community composition where communities on small islands (<35.8 ha) departed from those on the mainland and larger islands, and were highly variable with no significant nestedness, probably as a result of unexpected species occurrences on several small islands. The communities exhibited a low degree of spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that dispersal limitation plays a part in structuring dung beetle assemblages. Species with lower baseline density and an inability to forage on the forest edge were found to be rarer among sites and hence more prone to local extinction. Main conclusions We highlight the stochastic nature of dung beetle community composition on small islands and argue that this results in reduced ecosystem functionality. A better understanding of the minimum fragment size required for retaining functional ecological communities will be important for effective conservation management and the maintenance of tropical forest ecosystem stability.     

Rarity and extinction risk in coral reef angelfishes on isolated islands: interrelationships among abundance, geographic range size and specialisation

Determining the species most vulnerable to increasing degradation of coral reef habitats requires identification of the ecological traits that increase extinction risk. In the terrestrial environment, endemic species often face a high risk of extinction because of an association among three traits that threaten species persistence: small geographic range size, low abundance and ecological specialisation. To test whether these traits are associated in coral reef fishes, this study compared abundance and specialisation in endemic and widespread angelfishes at the remote Christmas and Cocos Islands in the Indian Ocean. The interrelationships among traits conferring high extinction risk in terrestrial communities did not apply to these fishes. Endemic angelfishes were 50–80 times more abundant than widespread species at these islands. Furthermore, there was no relationship between abundance and ecological specialisation. Endemic species were not more specialised than widespread congeners and endemics used similar resources to many widespread species. Three widespread species exhibited low abundance and some degree of specialisation, which may expose them to a greater risk of local extinction. For endemic species, high abundance and lack of specialisation on susceptible habitats may compensate for the global extinction risk posed by having extremely small geographic ranges. However, recent extinctions of small range reef fishes confirm that endemics are not immune to the increasing severity of large-scale disturbances that can affect species throughout their geographic range.     

Life-history traits associated with fragmentation vulnerability of lizards in the Thousand Island Lake, China

Following habitat fragmentation, the remnant faunal community will undergo a period of species loss or 'relaxation.' Theory predicts that species with particular life-history traits, such as a small population size, small geographical range, low fecundity and large body size, should be more vulnerable to fragmentation. In this study, we investigated the relationships between the above life-history traits and the fragmentation vulnerability index (the number of islands occupied) of five lizard species inhabiting recently isolated land-bridge islands in the Thousand Island Lake, China. Data on life-history traits were collected from field surveys (population density) and from the literature (body size, clutch size and geographical range size). The species–area relationships for lizards sampled from the mainland versus on the islands differed significantly (i.e. the number of species inhabiting islands was decreased relative to similar-sized areas on the mainland), indicating that species extinction has occurred on all of the study islands following isolation. For the fragmentation vulnerability index, model selection based on Akaike's information criterion identified natural density at mainland sites as the best correlate of vulnerability to fragmentation, supporting the hypothesis that rare species are most vulnerable to local extinction and will be lost first from fragmented landscapes. In contrast, there was little evidence for an effect of lizards' snout–vent length, clutch size or geographical range size on fragmentation vulnerability. Identification of species traits that render some species more vulnerable to fragmentation than others has important implications for conservation and can be used to aid direct management efforts.     

Genetic and phylogenetic consequences of island biogeography

Abstract.— Island biogeography theory predicts that the number of species on an island should increase with island size and decrease with island distance to the mainland. These predictions are generally well supported in comparative and experimental studies. These ecological, equilibrium predictions arise as a result of colonization and extinction processes. Because colonization and extinction are also important processes in evolution, we develop methods to test evolutionary predictions of island biogeography. We derive a population genetic model of island biogeography that incorporates island colonization, migration of individuals from the mainland, and extinction of island populations. The model provides a means of estimating the rates of migration and extinction from population genetic data. This model predicts that within an island population the distribution of genetic divergences with respect to the mainland source population should be bimodal, with much of the divergence dating to the colonization event. Across islands, this model predicts that populations on large islands should be on average more genetically divergent from mainland source populations than those on small islands. Likewise, populations on distant islands should be more divergent than those on close islands. Published observations of a larger proportion of endemic species on large and distant islands support these predictions.     

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Population viability analysis (PVA) has frequently been used in conservation biology to predict extinction rates for threatened or endangered species. In this study, we used VORTEX to model Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using previously collected ecological data. We focused on modelling population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. The minimum viable population size was found to be at least 50 gorals for 100 years, regardless of carrying capacity. However, populations with fewer than 50 gorals could not remain successful in the model. Inbreeding depression, catastrophes and supplementation also affected patterns of population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. Supplementation with new individuals had the strongest effect on extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity, followed by initial population size, inbreeding, catastrophes and carrying capacity. These results suggest that a supplementation by extra goral individuals from goral proliferation facilities would be the most helpful means for the restoration programme. More Korean goral-specific information regarding demographic and habitat parameters is needed for further PVA of the species.     

Temporal dynamics and nestedness of an oceanic island bird fauna

Aim To examine temporal variation in nestedness and whether nestedness patterns predict colonization, extinction and turnover across islands and species. Location Dahlak Archipelago, Red Sea. Method The distributions of land birds on 17 islands were recorded in two periods 30 years apart. Species and islands were reordered in the Nestedness Temperature Calculator, software for assessing degrees of nestedness in communities. The occupancy probability of each cell, i.e. species–island combinations, was calculated in the nested matrix and an extinction curve (boundary line) was specified. We tested whether historical and current nested ranks of species and islands were correlated, whether there was a relationship between occupancy probability (based on the historical data) and number of extinctions or colonizations (regression analyses) and whether the boundary line could predict extinctions and colonizations (chi‐square analyses). Results Historical and current nested ranks of islands and species were correlated but changes in occupancy patterns were common, particularly among bird species with intermediate incidence. Extinction and turnover of species were higher for small than large islands, and colonization was negatively related to isolation. As expected, colonizations were more frequent above than below the boundary line. Probability of extinction was highest at intermediate occupancy probability, giving a quadratic relationship between extinction and occupancy probability. Species turnover was related to the historical nested ranks of islands. Colonization was related negatively while extinction and occupancy turnover were related quadratically to historical nested ranks of species. Main conclusions Some patterns of the temporal dynamics agreed with expectations from nested patterns. However, the accuracy of the predictions may be confounded by regional dynamics and distributions of idiosyncratic, resource‐limited species. It is therefore necessary to combine nestedness analysis with adequate knowledge of the causal factors and ecology of targeted species to gain insight into the temporal dynamics of assemblages and for nestedness analyses to be helpful in conservation planning.     

Extinction‐driven changes in frugivore communities on oceanic islands

Global change and human expansion have resulted in many species extinctions worldwide, but the geographic variation and determinants of extinction risk in particular guilds still remain little explored. Here, we quantified insular extinctions of frugivorous vertebrates (including birds, mammals and reptiles) across 74 tropical and subtropical oceanic islands within 20 archipelagos worldwide and investigated extinction in relation to island characteristics (island area, isolation, elevation and climate) and species’ functional traits (body mass, diet and ability to fly). Out of the 74 islands, 33 islands (45%) have records of frugivore extinctions, with one third (mean: 34%, range: 2–100%) of the pre‐extinction frugivore community being lost. Geographic areas with more than 50% loss of pre‐extinction species richness include islands in the Pacific (within Hawaii, Cook Islands and Tonga Islands) and the Indian Ocean (Mascarenes, Seychelles). The proportion of species richness lost from original pre‐extinction communities is highest on small and isolated islands, increases with island elevation, but is unrelated to temperature or precipitation. Large and flightless species had higher extinction probability than small or volant species. Across islands with extinction events, a pronounced downsizing of the frugivore community is observed, with a strong extinction‐driven reduction of mean body mass (mean: 37%, range: –18–100%) and maximum body mass (mean: 51%, range: 0–100%). The results document a substantial trophic downgrading of frugivore communities on oceanic islands worldwide, with a non‐random pattern in relation to geography, island characteristics and species’ functional traits. This implies severe consequences for ecosystem processes that depend on mutualistic plant–animal interactions, including ecosystem dynamics that result from the dispersal of large‐seeded plants by large‐bodied frugivores. We suggest that targeted conservation and rewilding efforts on islands are needed to halt the defaunation of large and non‐volant seed dispersers and to restore frugivore communities and key ecological interactions.     

Habitat islands and the equilibrium theory of island biogeography: testing some predictions

Summary Species-area data from a study of marsh birds are used to test five predictions generated by the equilibrium theory of island biogeography. Three predictions are supported: we found a significant species-area relationship, a non-zero level of turnover, and a variance-mean ratio of 0.5. One prediction is rejected: the extinction rates were not greater on small islands. The results of one test are equivocal: the number of species on each island was not always the same. As Gilbert (1980) suggests, a strong species-area relationship alone does not validate the theory. The avian communities we studied were on habitat islands, not true islands, and underwent complete extinction annually. Thus caution must be used before applying the theory to these and other habitat islands.     

Turnover of passerine birds on islands in the Aegean Sea (Greece)

Aim We wish to determine the effect of migratory status on turnover rates in island birds. Because turnover is influenced by factors other than migratory status, we also considered the influence of body size and physical characteristics of the islands inhabited on the probabilities of extinction and immigration. Location The Mediterranean islands of Delos, Astypalea, Paros, Naxos and Lesvos in the Aegean Sea, Greece. Methods The passerine birds of these islands were surveyed between 1954 and 1961 by G.E. Watson, and were resurveyed between 1988 and 1992. The effects of migratory status and body size on the probabilities of extinction and immigration were examined by G‐tests of linear trend in proportion, and analysis of variance, respectively. A combined analysis of migratory status, body size and physical characteristics of the islands was carried out using logistic regressions of the probabilities of extinction and immigration on these factors. Results Species number on each island changed little between surveys, with no island's species number changing by more than one species. Twelve population extinctions and 11 immigrations were recorded. The smallest island, Delos (6 km²), had the highest annualized relative turnover rate (1.08), while the four larger islands (96–1614 km²) had lower and mutually similar rates (0.21–0.27). Populations on higher elevation islands were less likely to go extinct. There is no evidence for an effect of body size on the probabilities of extinction or immigration. Migratory status affected extinction and immigration probabilities differently: migratory species were more likely to immigrate, but less likely to go extinct. Main conclusions The position of the Aegean islands along a major north–south flyway may account for the observed effects of migratory status. The annual passage of large numbers of migrants may, via the rescue effect, decrease the chances of extinction, while at the same time increasing the chances of colonization of unoccupied islands. The likelihood of both extinction and immigration involves a complex interaction between life‐history traits and island characteristics. The effects of migratory status will depend not only on consideration of vagility, vulnerability and stochasticity identified by previous authors, but also upon the location of the islands in relationship to migratory pathways.     

Assessing minimum viable population size: Demography meets population genetics

The discussion of a population's minimum viable size provides a focus for the study of ecological and genetic factors that influence the persistence of a threatened population. There are many causes of extinction and the fate of a specific population cannot generally be predicted. This uncertainty has been dealt with in two ways: through stochastic demographic models to determine how to minimize extinction probabilities; and through population genetic theory to determine how best to maintain genetic variation, in the belief that the ability to evolve helps buffer a population against the unknown. Recent work suggests that these two very different approaches lead to very similar conclusions, at least under panmictic conditions. However, defining the ideal spatial distribution for an endangered species remains an important challenge.     

Minimum viable population sizes and global extinction risk are unrelated

Theoretical and empirical work has shown that once reduced in size and geographical range, species face a considerably elevated risk of extinction. We predict minimum viable population sizes (MVP) for 1198 species based on long-term time-series data and model-averaged population dynamics simulations. The median MVP estimate was 1377 individuals (90% probability of persistence over 100 years) but the overall distribution was wide and strongly positively skewed. Factors commonly cited as correlating with extinction risk failed to predict MVP but were able to predict successfully the probability of World Conservation Union Listing. MVPs were most strongly related to local environmental variation rather than a species' intrinsic ecological and life history attributes. Further, the large variation in MVP across species is unrelated to (or at least dwarfed by) the anthropogenic threats that drive the global biodiversity crisis by causing once-abundant species to decline.     

Small mammals on Massachusetts islands: the use of probability functions in clarifying biogeographic relationships

Summary Thirty-three insular small mammal communities along the coast of Massachusetts (USA) were surveyed to investigate the biogeographic relationships of the insular communities and to examine the distribution patterns of individual species. Nine species of terrestrial small mammals were observed in the total insular fauna, whereas thirteen occurred on the mainland. The species-area relation yielded a z value of 0.06, which is the lowest value yet reported for insular mammal communities.Multiple logistic regression was used to calculate probability functions for each species in order to identify variables potentially important in determining a species' occurrence on islands and to estimate probabilities of occurrence on islands. Statistically significant and ecologically interpretable functions were obtained for all but one species. Occurrence on islands was positively related to increasing island size in four species and to decreasing island isolation in four species. The extremely low z value, negative correlations of species number with isolation variables, and the inclusion of an isolation variable in the logistic functions of four species indicated that immigration was an important determinant of small mammal occurrence on these islands. There was a positive relationship between population density and number of islands occupied.Logistic regression has several advantages over linear discriminant function analysis, and we suggest that it may be useful in other ecological studies and in the preservation of endangered species.     

Functional diversity and species turnover of benthic invertebrates along a local environmental gradient induced by an aquaculture unit: the contribution of species dispersal ability and rarity

The relation of macrobenthic species turnover (beta diversity) and species plylogenetic variation with functional diversity patterns, across an environmental gradient induced by an aquaculture unit, in a coastal area of the island of Lesvos (NE Aegean) has been investigated in this study. The contribution of rare species response and species dispersal ability in the variation of functional diversity patterns along the environmental gradient, on a spatio-temporal scale, has been also examined. Our results revealed that benthic functional diversity was decreasing monotonically with increasing species turnover rate and hence with increasing spatial variability along the environmental gradient. Increased environmental stress which was detected in the immediate vicinity of the fish cages resulted to low species functional redundancy, since different species didn’t perform the same functional role at the most disturbed part of the established gradient. Functional diversity patterns were found to be correlated with species population size, whereas a strong linear relationship was also detected with phylogenetic diversity patterns, thus supporting the claim that wider local taxonomic trees can support a wider range of species functions even in small spatial scales. Rare species loss seemed to be one of the dominant factors ruling functional diversity variation. Species with the minimum possible dispersal ability, which were mostly rare, tend to diminish both in species number and population size faster than species with wider dispersal ability towards the most disturbed areas. The aforementioned results indicate that rare species variation and endemic species loss are critical factors in determining functional diversity loss across a human-induced environmental gradient in soft bottom benthic communities.     

Geographic signatures in species turnover: decoupling colonization and extinction across a latitudinal gradient

High latitude communities have low species richness and are rapidly warming with climate change. Thus, temporal changes in community composition are expected to be greatest at high latitudes. However, at the same time traits such as body size can also change with latitude, potentially offsetting or increasing changes to community composition over time. We tested how zooplankton communities (copepods and cladocerans) have changed over a 25–75 year time span by assessing colonization and extinction rates from lakes across an 1800 km latitudinal gradient, and further tested whether species traits predict rates of community change over time. Lake‐level dissimilarity, measured with Sorenson distance, decreased at higher latitudes. This decrease was due to higher colonization rates of cladocerans in lower latitude lakes and consistent extinction rates across the latitudinal gradient. At the species level, colonization increased with regional occupancy, and tended to be higher for smaller bodied, locally abundant, species. Local extinction rates were negatively correlated with local abundance and regional occupancy, but were not influenced by body size. None of these species‐specific characteristics changed predictably with latitude. Contrary to our expectations, low‐latitude zooplankton communities changed more rapidly than high‐latitude communities by becoming more species rich, not by losing species that were historically present. Moreover, colonization and extinction trends suggest that lakes have become increasingly dominated by species with smaller body sizes and that are already common locally and regionally. Together, these findings indicate that rates of species turnover in freshwater lakes across a latitudinal gradient are not predicted by rates of temperature change, but that turnover is nonetheless resulting in trait‐shifts that favour small, generalist species.     

Species immigration, extinction and turnover of vascular plants in boreal lakes

Dictated by limited resource availability for land acquisition, a central question in conservation biology is the ability of areas of different size to maintain species diversity. The selected reserves should not only be species rich at the moment, but should also maintain species diversity in the long run. We used two sets of data on vascular plant species in boreal lakes collected in 1933/34 and 1996 to test the relationships between lake area and the extinction, immigration and turnover rates of the species. Moreover, we investigated, whether the number of species in 1933/34 or water connection between lakes was related to extinction, immigration and turnover rates of species. We found that lake area or shoreline length was not correlated with immigration or turnover rate. But extinction rate was slightly negatively correlated with shoreline length. The original number of species was positively related to the number of species extinctions and to the absolute turnover rate in the lakes, which indicates that species richness does not create stability in these communities. Species number was not correlated with immigration rate. Upstream water connections in the lakes did not affect immigration, extinction or turnover rates. We conclude that length of the shoreline is a better measure of suitable area for water plants than the lake area, and that because the correlation between shoreline length and extinction rate was slight, also small lakes can be valuable for conservation.