Indoor Residual Spraying in Combination with Insecticide-Treated Nets Compared to Insecticide-Treated Nets Alone for Protection against Malaria: A Cluster Randomised Trial in Tanzania

Background

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) of houses provide effective malaria transmission control. There is conflicting evidence about whether it is more beneficial to provide both interventions in combination. A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted to investigate whether the combination provides added protection compared to ITNs alone.

Methods and Findings

In northwest Tanzania, 50 clusters (village areas) were randomly allocated to ITNs only or ITNs and IRS. Dwellings in the ITN+IRS arm were sprayed with two rounds of bendiocarb in 2012. Plasmodium falciparum prevalence rate (PfPR) in children 0.5–14 y old (primary outcome) and anaemia in children <5 y old (secondary outcome) were compared between study arms using three cross-sectional household surveys in 2012. Entomological inoculation rate (secondary outcome) was compared between study arms.IRS coverage was approximately 90%. ITN use ranged from 36% to 50%. In intention-to-treat analysis, mean PfPR was 13% in the ITN+IRS arm and 26% in the ITN only arm, odds ratio = 0.43 (95% CI 0.19–0.97, n = 13,146). The strongest effect was observed in the peak transmission season, 6 mo after the first IRS. Subgroup analysis showed that ITN users were additionally protected if their houses were sprayed. Mean monthly entomological inoculation rate was non-significantly lower in the ITN+IRS arm than in the ITN only arm, rate ratio = 0.17 (95% CI 0.03–1.08).

Conclusions

This is the first randomised trial to our knowledge that reports significant added protection from combining IRS and ITNs compared to ITNs alone. The effect is likely to be attributable to IRS providing added protection to ITN users as well as compensating for inadequate ITN use. Policy makers should consider deploying IRS in combination with ITNs to control transmission if local ITN strategies on their own are insufficiently effective. Given the uncertain generalisability of these findings, it would be prudent for malaria control programmes to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of deploying the combination.

Trial registration

www.ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01697852","term_id":"NCT01697852"}}NCT01697852 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Combination of Insecticide Treated Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying in Northern Tanzania Provides Additional Reduction in Vector Population Density and Malaria Transmission Rates Compared to Insecticide Treated Nets Alone: A Randomised Control Trial

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) combined with insecticide treated nets (ITN) has been implemented together in several sub-Saharan countries with inconclusive evidence that the combined intervention provides added benefit. The impact on malaria transmission was evaluated in a cluster randomised trial comparing two rounds of IRS with bendiocarb plus universal coverage ITNs, with ITNs alone in northern Tanzania. From April 2011 to December 2012, eight houses in 20 clusters per study arm were sampled monthly for one night with CDC light trap collections. Anopheles gambiae s.l. were identified to species using real time PCR Taq Man and tested for the presence of Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein. ITN and IRS coverage was estimated from household surveys. IRS coverage was more than 85% in two rounds of spraying in January and April 2012. Household coverage with at least one ITN per house was 94.7% after the universal coverage net campaign in the baseline year and the proportion of household with all sleeping places covered by LLIN was 50.1% decreasing to 39.1% by the end of the intervention year. An.gambiae s.s. comprised 80% and An.arabiensis 18.3% of the anopheline collection in the baseline year. Mean An.gambiae s.l. density in the ITN+IRS arm was reduced by 84% (95%CI: 56%-94%, p = 0.001) relative to the ITN arm. In the stratum of clusters categorised as high anopheline density at baseline EIR was lower in the ITN+IRS arm compared to the ITN arm (0.5 versus 5.4 per house per month, Incidence Rate Ratio: 0.10, 95%CI: 0.01–0.66, p-value for interaction <0.001). This trial provides conclusive evidence that combining carbamate IRS and ITNs produces major reduction in Anopheles density and entomological inoculation rate compared to ITN alone in an area of moderate coverage of LLIN and high pyrethroid resistance in An.gambiae s.s.     

Managing Motherhood, Managing Risk: Fertility and Danger in West Central Tanzania

Managing Motherhood, Managing Risk: Fertility and Danger in West Central Tanzania. Denise Roth Allen Ann Arbor. University of Michigan Press, 2002. xxii. 303 pp.     

Ranking Malaria Risk Factors to Guide Malaria Control Efforts in African Highlands

Introduction

Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies.

Methods and Findings

A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through “classification and regression trees”, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density.

Conclusions

In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors.     

HIV Infection among Young People in Northwest Tanzania: The Role of Biological,Behavioural and Socio-Demographic Risk Factors

Background

Young people are at high risk of HIV and developing appropriate prevention programmes requires an understanding of the risk factors for HIV in this age group. We investigated factors associated with HIV among participants aged 15–30 years in a 2007–8 cross-sectional survey nested within a community-randomised trial of the MEMA kwa Vijana intervention in 20 rural communities in northwest Tanzania.

Methods

We analysed data for 7259(53%) males and 6476(47%) females. Using a proximate-determinant conceptual framework and conditional logistic regression, we obtained sex-specific Odds Ratios (ORs) for the association of HIV infection with socio-demographic, knowledge, behavioural and biological factors.

Results

HSV-2 infection was strongly associated with HIV infection (females: adjOR 4.4, 95%CI 3.2–6.1; males: adjOR 4.2, 95%CI 2.8–6.2). Several socio-demographic factors (such as age, marital status and mobility), behavioural factors (condom use, number and type of sexual partnerships) and biological factors (blood transfusion, lifetime pregnancies, genital ulcers, Neisseria gonorrhoeae) were also associated with HIV infection. Among females, lifetime sexual partners (linear trend, p<0.001), ≥2 partners in the past year (adjOR 2.0, 95%CI 1.4–2.8), ≥2 new partners in the past year (adjOR 1.9 95%CI 1.2, 3.3) and concurrent partners in the past year (adjOR 1.6 95%CI 1.1, 2.4) were all associated with HIV infection.

Conclusions

Efforts must be intensified to find effective interventions to reduce HSV-2. Effective behavioural interventions focusing on reducing the number of sexual partnerships and risk behaviour within partnerships are also needed. An increase in risky sexual behaviour may occur following marriage dissolution or when a young woman travels outside of her community and interventions addressing the needs of these subgroups of vulnerable women may be important.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrial.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00248469","term_id":"NCT00248469"}}NCT00248469.     

Environmental Management for Malaria Control: Knowledge and Practices in Mvomero,Tanzania

Environmental conditions play an important role in the transmission of malaria; therefore, regulating these conditions can help to reduce disease burden. Environmental management practices for disease control can be implemented at the community level to complement other malaria control methods. This study assesses current knowledge and practices related to mosquito ecology and environmental management for malaria control in a rural, agricultural region of Tanzania. Household surveys were conducted with 408 randomly selected respondents from 10 villages and qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. Results show that respondents are well aware of the links between mosquitoes, the environment, and malaria. Most respondents stated that cleaning the environment around the home, clearing vegetation around the home, or draining stagnant water can reduce mosquito populations, and 63% of respondents reported performing at least one of these techniques to protect themselves from malaria. It is clear that many respondents believe that these environmental management practices are effective malaria control methods, but the actual efficacy of these techniques for controlling populations of vectors or reducing malaria prevalence in the varying ecological habitats in Mvomero is unknown. Further research should be conducted to determine the effects of different environmental management practices on both mosquito populations and malaria transmission in this region, and increased participation in effective techniques should be promoted.     

Risk Factors for Helminth,Malaria, and HIV Infection in Pregnancy in Entebbe,Uganda

Background

Infections during pregnancy may have serious consequences for both mother and baby. Assessment of risk factors for infections informs planning of interventions and analysis of the impact of infections on health outcomes.

Objectives

To describe risk factors for helminths, malaria and HIV in pregnant Ugandan women before intervention in a trial of de-worming in pregnancy.

Methods

The trial recruited 2,507 pregnant women between April 2003 and November 2005. Participants were interviewed and blood and stool samples obtained; location of residence at enrolment was mapped. Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and other risk factors were modelled using logistic regression.

Results

There was a high prevalence of helminth, malaria and HIV infection, as previously reported. All helminths and malaria parasitemia were more common in younger women, and education was protective against every infection. Place of birth and/or tribe affected all helminths in a pattern consistent with the geographical distribution of helminth infections in Uganda. Four different geohelminths (hookworm, Trichuris, Ascaris and Trichostrongylus) showed a downwards trend in prevalence during the enrolment period. There was a negative association between hookworm and HIV, and between hookworm and low CD4 count among HIV-positive women. Locally, high prevalence of schistosomiasis and HIV occurred in lakeshore communities.

Conclusions

Interventions for helminths, malaria and HIV need to target young women both in and out of school. Antenatal interventions for malaria and HIV infection must continue to be promoted. Women originating from a high risk area for a helminth infection remain at high risk after migration to a lower-risk area, and vice versa, but overall, geohelminths seem to be becoming less common in this population. High risk populations, such as fishing communities, require directed effort against schistosomiasis and HIV infection.     

Quantifying Risk Factors for Human Brucellosis in Rural Northern Tanzania

Background

Brucellosis is a zoonosis of veterinary, public health and economic significance in most developing countries. Human brucellosis is a severely debilitating disease that requires prolonged treatment with a combination of antibiotics. The disease can result in permanent and disabling sequel, and results in considerable medical expenses in addition to loss of income due to loss of working hours. A study was conducted in Northern Tanzania to determine the risk factors for transmission of brucellosis to humans in Tanzania.

Methods

This was a matched case-control study. Any patient with a positive result by a competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) test for brucellosis, and presenting to selected hospitals with at least two clinical features suggestive of brucellosis such as headache, recurrent or continuous fever, sweating, joint pain, joint swelling, general body malaise or backache, was defined as a case. For every case in a district, a corresponding control was traced and matched by sex using multistage cluster sampling. Other criteria for inclusion as a control included a negative c-ELISA test result and that the matched individual would present to hospital if falls sick.

Results

Multivariable analysis showed that brucellosis was associated with assisted parturition during abortion in cattle, sheep or goat. It was shown that individuals living in close proximity to other households had a higher risk of brucellosis. People who were of Christian religion were found to have a higher risk of brucellosis compared to other religions. The study concludes that assisting an aborting animal, proximity to neighborhoods, and Christianity were associated with brucellosis infection. There was no association between human brucellosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) serostatus. Protecting humans against contact with fluids and tissues during assisted parturition of livestock may be an important means of reducing the risk of transferring brucellosis from livestock to humans. These can be achieved through health education to the communities where brucellosis is common.     

Prevalence and Risk Factors Associated with Human Taenia Solium Infections in Mbozi District,Mbeya Region,Tanzania

Background

Taenia solium cysticercosis/taeniosis is emerging as a serious public health and economic problem in many developing countries. This study was conducted to determine prevalence and risk factors of human T. solium infections in Mbeya Region, Tanzania.

Methods and Findings

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 13 villages of Mbozi district in 2009. Sera of 830 people (mean 37.9±11.3 years (SD); 43% females) were tested for circulating cysticerci antigen (Ag-ELISA) and antibody (Ab-ELISA). A subset of persons found seropositive by Ag-ELISA underwent computed tomography (CT) scan of the brain for evidence of neurocysticercosis. Stool samples from 820 of the same participants were tested for taeniosis by copro-antigens (copro-Ag-ELISA) and formol-ether concentration technique. Cases of T. solium taeniosis were confirmed serologically by EITB assay (rES38). A questionnaire was used for identification of risk factors. Active cysticercosis by positive Ag-ELISA was found in 139 (16.7%) persons while anti-cysticercal antibodies were detected in 376 (45.3%) persons by Ab-ELISA. Among 55 persons positive for Ag-ELISA undergoing CT scan, 30 (54.6%) were found to have structures in the brain suggestive of neurocysticercosis. Using faecal analysis, 43 (5.2%) stool samples tested positive for taeniosis by copro-Ag-ELISA while Taenia eggs were detected in 9 (1.1%) stool samples by routine coprology. Antibodies specifically against adult T. solium were detected in 34 copro-Ag-ELISA positive participants by EITB (rES38) indicating T. solium taeniosis prevalence of 4.1%. Increasing age and hand washing by dipping in contrast to using running water, were found associated with Ag-ELISA seropositivity by logistic regression. Gender (higher risk in females) and water source were risk factors associated with Ab-ELISA seropositivity. Reported symptoms of chronic severe headaches and history of epileptic seizures were found associated with positive Ag-ELISA (p≤0.05).

Conclusion

The present study indicates T. solium infection in humans is highly endemic in the southern highlands of Tanzania.     

Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

Background

After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions.

Methods

We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi.

Results

Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk.

Conclusions

The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities.     

Cost Implications of Improving Malaria Diagnosis: Findings from North-Eastern Tanzania

Background

Over diagnosis of malaria contributes to improper treatment, wastage of drugs and resistance to the few available drugs. This paper attempts to estimate the rates of over diagnosis of malaria among children attending dispensaries in rural Tanzania and examines the potential cost implications of improving the quality of diagnosis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The magnitude of over diagnosis of malaria was estimated by comparing the proportion of outpatient attendees of all ages clinically diagnosed as malaria to the proportion of attendees having a positive malaria rapid diagnostic test over a two month period. Pattern of causes of illness observed in a <2 year old cohort of children over one year was compared to the pattern of causes of illness in <5 year old children recorded in the routine health care system during the same period. Drug and diagnostic costs were modelled using local and international prices. Over diagnosis of malaria by the routine outpatient care system compared to RDT confirmed cases of malaria was highest among <5 year old children in the low transmission site (RR 17.9, 95% CI 5.8–55.3) followed by the ≥5 year age group in the lower transmission site (RR 14.0 95%CI 8.2–24.2). In the low transmission site the proportion of morbidity attributable to malaria was substantially lower in <2 year old cohort compared to children seen at routine care system. (0.08% vs 28.2%; p<0.001). A higher proportion of children were diagnosed with ARI in the <2 year old cohort compared to children seen at the routine care system ( 42% vs 26%; p<0.001). Using a RDT reduced overall drug and diagnostic costs by 10% in the high transmission site and by 15% in the low transmission site compared to total diagnostic and drug costs of treatment based on clinical judgment in routine health care system.

Implications

The introduction of RDTs is likely to lead to financial savings. However, improving diagnosis to one disease may lead to over diagnosis of another illness. Quality improvement is complex but introducing RDTs for the diagnosis of malaria is a good start.     

Malaria Prevalence,Spatial Clustering and Risk Factors in a Low Endemic Area of Eastern Rwanda: A Cross Sectional Study

Background

Rwanda reported significant reductions in malaria burden following scale up of control intervention from 2005 to 2010. This study sought to; measure malaria prevalence, describe spatial malaria clustering and investigate for malaria risk factors among health-centre-presumed malaria cases and their household members in Eastern Rwanda.

Methods

A two-stage health centre and household-based survey was conducted in Ruhuha sector, Eastern Rwanda from April to October 2011. At the health centre, data, including malaria diagnosis and individual level malaria risk factors, was collected. At households of these Index cases, a follow-up survey, including malaria screening for all household members and collecting household level malaria risk factor data, was conducted.

Results

Malaria prevalence among health centre attendees was 22.8%. At the household level, 90 households (out of 520) had at least one malaria-infected member and the overall malaria prevalence for the 2634 household members screened was 5.1%. Among health centre attendees, the age group 5–15 years was significantly associated with an increased malaria risk and a reported ownership of ≥4 bednets was significantly associated with a reduced malaria risk. At the household level, age groups 5–15 and >15 years and being associated with a malaria positive index case were associated with an increased malaria risk, while an observed ownership of ≥4 bednets was associated with a malaria risk-protective effect. Significant spatial malaria clustering among household cases with clusters located close to water- based agro-ecosystems was observed.

Conclusions

Malaria prevalence was significantly higher among health centre attendees and their household members in an area with significant household spatial malaria clustering. Circle surveillance involving passive case finding at health centres and proactive case detection in households can be a powerful tool for identifying household level malaria burden, risk factors and clustering.     

Nutritional Consequences of Wealth Differentials in East African Pastoralists: The Case of the Datoga of Northern Tanzania

Among African pastoralists evidence that wealth is associated with other measures of household success is scant and the significance of wealth differentials for family welfare remains poorly understood. Predictions that wealth in livestock is associated with increased adequacy of household food supply and with improved child nutrition are tested with longitudinal data on herd size, household composition, food supply, and anthropometric status collected in 1992 for a sample of traditional Datoga households (n = 20) living in the Eyasi basin in northern Tanzania. Although a majority subsisted below poverty cutoffs estimated for east African pastoral populations, there was large variation among households in measures of wealth and resource availability. Individuals in relatively wealthy households did not appear to benefit either in terms of adequacy of household food supply or in terms of average growth performance of young children. Theoretical and methodological challenges in the study of the relationship between wealth and health in nomadic pastoralists are discussed.     

Malaria and Helminth Co-Infections in School and Preschool Children: A Cross-Sectional Study in Magu District,North-Western Tanzania

Background

Malaria, schistosomiasis and soil transmitted helminth infections (STH) are important parasitic infections in Sub-Saharan Africa where a significant proportion of people are exposed to co-infections of more than one parasite. In Tanzania, these infections are a major public health problem particularly in school and pre-school children. The current study investigated malaria and helminth co-infections and anaemia in school and pre-school children in Magu district, Tanzania.

Methodology

School and pre-school children were enrolled in a cross-sectional study. Stool samples were examined for Schistosoma mansoni and STH infections using Kato Katz technique. Urine samples were examined for Schistosoma haematobium using the urine filtration method. Blood samples were examined for malaria parasites and haemoglobin concentrations using the Giemsa stain and Haemoque methods, respectively.

Principal Findings

Out of 1,546 children examined, 1,079 (69.8%) were infected with one or more parasites. Malaria-helminth co-infections were observed in 276 children (60% of all children with P. falciparum infection). Malaria parasites were significantly more prevalent in hookworm infected children than in hookworm free children (p = 0.046). However, this association was non-significant on multivariate logistic regression analysis (OR = 1.320, p = 0.064). Malaria parasite density decreased with increasing infection intensity of S. mansoni and with increasing number of co-infecting helminth species. Anaemia prevalence was 34.4% and was significantly associated with malaria infection, S. haematobium infection and with multiple parasite infections. Whereas S. mansoni infection was a significant predictor of malaria parasite density, P. falciparum and S. haematobium infections were significant predictors of anaemia.

Conclusions/Significance

These findings suggest that multiple parasite infections are common in school and pre-school children in Magu district. Concurrent P. falciparum, S. mansoni and S. haematobium infections increase the risk of lower Hb levels and anaemia, which in turn calls for integrated disease control interventions. The associations between malaria and helminth infections detected in this study need further investigation.     

Dynamics of Socioeconomic Risk Factors for Neglected Tropical Diseases and Malaria in an Armed Conflict

Background

Armed conflict and war are among the leading causes of disability and premature death, and there is a growing share of civilians killed or injured during armed conflicts. A major part of the civilian suffering stems from indirect effects or collateral impact such as changing risk profiles for infectious diseases. We focused on rural communities in the western part of Côte d''Ivoire, where fighting took place during the Ivorian civil war in 2002/2003, and assessed the dynamics of socioeconomic risk factors for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and malaria.

Methodology

The same standardized and pre-tested questionnaires were administered to the heads of 182 randomly selected households in 25 villages in the region of Man, western Côte d''Ivoire, shortly before and after the 2002/2003 armed conflict.

Principal Findings

There was no difference in crowding as measured by the number of individuals per sleeping room, but the inadequate sanitation infrastructure prior to the conflict further worsened, and the availability and use of protective measures against mosquito bites and accessibility to health care infrastructure deteriorated. Although the direct causal chain between these findings and the conflict are incomplete, partially explained by the very nature of working in conflict areas, the timing and procedures of the survey, other sources and anecdotal evidence point toward a relationship between an increased risk of suffering from NTDs and malaria and armed conflict.

Conclusion

New research is needed to deepen our understanding of the often diffuse and neglected indirect effects of armed conflict and war, which may be worse than the more obvious, direct effects.     

Benefit of Insecticide-Treated Nets,Curtains and Screening on Vector Borne Diseases,Excluding Malaria: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Introduction

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the main interventions used for malaria control. However, these nets may also be effective against other vector borne diseases (VBDs). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the efficacy of ITNs, insecticide-treated curtains (ITCs) and insecticide-treated house screening (ITS) against Chagas disease, cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis, dengue, human African trypanosomiasis, Japanese encephalitis, lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis.

Methods

MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Tropical Disease Bulletin databases were searched using intervention, vector- and disease-specific search terms. Cluster or individually randomised controlled trials, non-randomised trials with pre- and post-intervention data and rotational design studies were included. Analysis assessed the efficacy of ITNs, ITCs or ITS versus no intervention. Meta-analysis of clinical data was performed and percentage reduction in vector density calculated.

Results

Twenty-one studies were identified which met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of clinical data could only be performed for four cutaneous leishmaniasis studies which together showed a protective efficacy of ITNs of 77% (95%CI: 39%–91%). Studies of ITC and ITS against cutaneous leishmaniasis also reported significant reductions in disease incidence. Single studies reported a high protective efficacy of ITS against dengue and ITNs against Japanese encephalitis. No studies of Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis or onchocerciasis were identified.

Conclusion

There are likely to be considerable collateral benefits of ITN roll out on cutaneous leishmaniasis where this disease is co-endemic with malaria. Due to the low number of studies identified, issues with reporting of entomological outcomes, and few studies reporting clinical outcomes, it is difficult to make strong conclusions on the effect of ITNs, ITCs or ITS on other VBDs and therefore further studies be conducted. Nonetheless, it is clear that insecticide-treated materials such as ITNs have the potential to reduce pathogen transmission and morbidity from VBDs where vectors enter houses.     

Scientific Wealth in Middle East and North Africa: Productivity,Indigeneity, and Specialty in 1981–2013

Several developing countries seek to build knowledge-based economies by attempting to expand scientific research capabilities. Characterizing the state and direction of progress in this arena is challenging but important. Here, we employ three metrics: a classical metric of productivity (publications per person), an adapted metric which we denote as Revealed Scientific Advantage (developed from work used to compare publications in scientific fields among countries) to characterize disciplinary specialty, and a new metric, scientific indigeneity (defined as the ratio of publications with domestic corresponding authors) to characterize the locus of scientific activity that also serves as a partial proxy for local absorptive capacity. These metrics—using population and publications data that are available for most countries–allow the characterization of some key features of national scientific enterprise. The trends in productivity and indigeneity when compared across other countries and regions can serve as indicators of strength or fragility in the national research ecosystems, and the trends in specialty can allow regional policy makers to assess the extent to which the areas of focus of research align (or not align) with regional priorities. We apply the metrics to study the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)—a region where science and technology capacity will play a key role in national economic diversification. We analyze 9.8 million publication records between 1981–2013 in 17 countries of MENA from Morocco to Iraq and compare it to selected countries throughout the world. The results show that international collaborators increasingly drove the scientific activity in MENA. The median indigeneity reached 52% in 2013 (indicating that almost half of the corresponding authors were located in foreign countries). Additionally, the regional disciplinary focus in chemical and petroleum engineering is waning with modest growth in the life sciences. We find repeated patterns of stagnation and contraction of scientific activity for several MENA countries contributing to a widening productivity gap on an international comparative yardstick. The results prompt questions about the strength of the developing scientific enterprise and highlight the need for consistent long-term policy for effectively addressing regional challenges with domestic research.