Forest Structure and Roe Deer Abundance Predict Tick-Borne Encephalitis Risk in Italy

Background

The Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBE cases has increased dramatically over the last decade, risk areas are expanding and new foci are being discovered every year. The early localisation of new TBE foci and the identification of the main risk factors associated with disease emergence represent a priority for the public health community. Although a number of socio-economic parameters have been suggested to explain TBE upsurges in eastern Europe, the principal driving factors in relatively stable western European countries have not been identified.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this paper, we analyse the correlation between the upsurge of TBE in 17 alpine provinces in northern Italy from 1992 to 2006 with climatic variables, forest structure (as a proxy for small mammal reservoir host abundance), and abundance of the principal large vertebrate tick host (roe deer), using datasets available for the last 40 years. No significant differences between the pattern of changes in climatic variables in provinces where TBE has emerged compared to provinces were no clinical TBE cases have been observed to date. Instead, the best model for explaining the increase in TBE incidence in humans in this area include changes in forest structure, in particular the ratio of coppice to high stand forest, and the density of roe deer.

Conclusion/Significance

Substantial changes in vegetation structure that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts (small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife management practices, are likely to be among the most crucial factors affecting the circulation potential of Western TBE virus and, consequently, the risk of TBE emergence in humans in western Europe. We believe our approach will be useful in predicting TBE risk on a wider scale.     

Determinants of tick-borne encephalitis virus antibody presence in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) sera

In order to identify variables associated with the presence of the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus, we conducted a serological survey of roe deer [Capreolus capreolus (Artiodactyla: Cervidae, Linnaeus 1758)] in three forest districts of southern Hesse, Germany. Overall, 24 out of 105 (22.9%) of the sera were positive (≥1 : 10 plaque reduction neutralization test). Using a logistic regression approach, we found that unexplained spatial variation, indexed roe deer density (positive correlation), hind foot length of the tested roe deer (positive correlation) and infestation with female Ixodes spp. ticks (negative correlation) predicted the probability of TBE virus antibody presence in individual roe deer sera. Spring temperature increase and host sex were rejected as explanatory variables. We found considerable differences in TBE virus antibody seroprevalence (50.0% vs. 17.6%) between two forest districts located in the same county; this finding questions the current county-resolution of public health recordings. Given the high seroprevalence of roe deer and the considerable explanatory power of our model, our approach appears suitable to delineate science-based risk maps at a smaller spatial scale and to abandon the current human incidence per county criterion. Importantly, using roe deer as sentinels would eliminate the inherent bias of risk maps based on human incidence (varying levels of immunization and exposure of humans).     

Tick-borne encephalitis virus in northern Italy: molecular analysis, relationships with density and seasonal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus

Ixodes ricinus ticks were collected from dragging vegetation and from shot roe deer in the province of Trento and Belluno in northern Italy. Ticks were pooled for analyses and from 1060 pools of ticks collected in the province of Belluno and 12390 tick samples collected in Trentino, four proved positive by immunofluorescence microscopy using a tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)-specific antiserum. The identity of the virus isolates was determined by RT-PCR cycle sequencing and they were all found to be closely similar (> 98% nucleotide identity) to typical western European TBE complex viruses as found in Austria. The isolates from Trentino differed from the Neudorfl strain of western European TBE virus at eight nucleotide positions but as these nucleotide substitutions were all synonymous, there were no amino acid changes. These results imply that the virus isolates in Trentino have changed slightly from the typical European strains isolated in nearby Austria. The abundance of questing ticks and ticks feeding on roe deer was greater in TBE positive hunting districts than in hunting districts where TBE complex viruses were only probable or believed to be absent. In TBE positive and probable districts synchrony in the seasonal dynamics of larvae and nymphs of L. ricinus was observed. This study provides evidence to suggest that roe deer may have an important role to play in the maintenance of tick density and in the persistence of TBE virus.     

Effect of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. II: population and infection models

Tick-borne encephalitis is an emerging vector-borne zoonotic disease reported in several European and Asiatic countries with complex transmission routes that involve various vertebrate host species other than a tick vector. Understanding and quantifying the contribution of the different hosts involved in the TBE virus cycle is crucial in estimating the threshold conditions for virus emergence and spread. Some hosts, such as rodents, act both as feeding hosts for ticks and reservoirs of the infection. Other species, such as deer, provide important sources of blood for feeding ticks but they do not support TBE virus transmission, acting instead as dead-end (i.e., incompetent) hosts. Here, we introduce an eco-epidemiological model to explore the dynamics of tick populations and TBE virus infection in relation to the density of two key hosts. In particular, our aim is to validate and interpret in a robust theoretical framework the empirical findings regarding the effect of deer density on tick infestation on rodents and thus TBE virus occurrence from selected European foci. Model results show hump-shaped relationships between deer density and both feeding ticks on rodents and the basic reproduction number for TBE virus. This suggests that deer may act as tick amplifiers, but may also divert tick bites from competent hosts, thus diluting pathogen transmission. However, our model shows that the mechanism responsible for the dilution effect is more complex than the simple reduction of tick burden on competent hosts. Indeed, while the number of feeding ticks on rodents may increase with deer density, the proportion of blood meals on competent compared with incompetent hosts may decrease, triggering a decline in infection. As a consequence, using simply the number of ticks per rodent as a predictor of TBE transmission potential could be misleading if competent hosts share habitats with incompetent hosts.     

Effect of host populations on the intensity of ticks and the prevalence of tick-borne pathogens: how to interpret the results of deer exclosure experiments

Deer are important blood hosts for feeding Ixodes ricinus ticks but they do not support transmission of many tick-borne pathogens, so acting as dead-end transmission hosts. Mathematical models show their role as tick amplifiers, but also suggest that they dilute pathogen transmission, thus reducing infection prevalence. Empirical evidence for this is conflicting: experimental plots with deer removal (i.e. deer exclosures) show that the effect depends on the size of the exclosure. Here we present simulations of dynamic models that take into account different tick stages, and several host species (e.g. rodents) that may move to and from deer exclosures; models were calibrated with respect to Ixodes ricinus ticks and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in Trentino (northern Italy). Results show that in small exclosures, the density of rodent-feeding ticks may be higher inside than outside, whereas in large exclosures, a reduction of such tick density may be reached. Similarly, TBE prevalence in rodents decreases in large exclosures and may be slightly higher in small exclosures than outside them. The density of infected questing nymphs inside small exclosures can be much higher, in our numerical example almost twice as large as that outside, leading to potential TBE infection risk hotspots.     

Effects of deer density on tick infestation of rodents and the hazard of tick-borne encephalitis. I: empirical assessment

Tick borne encephalitis (TBE) is endemic to eastern and central Europe with broad temporal and spatial variation in infection risk. Although many studies have focused on understanding the environmental and socio-economic factors affecting exposure of humans to TBE, comparatively little research has been devoted to assessing the underlying ecological mechanisms of TBE occurrence in enzootic cycles, and therefore TBE hazard. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the main ungulate tick hosts on the pattern of tick infestation in rodents and TBE occurrence in rodents and questing adult ticks. In this empirical study, we considered three areas where endemic human TBE occurs and three control sites having no reported human TBE cases. In these six sites located in Italy and Slovakia, we assessed deer density using the pellet group count-plot sampling technique, collected questing ticks, live-trapped rodents (primarily Apodemus flavicollis and Myodes glareolus) and counted ticks feeding on rodents. Both rodents and questing ticks were screened for TBE infection. TBE infection in ticks and rodents was positively associated with the number of co-feeding ticks on rodents and negatively correlated with deer density. We hypothesise that the negative relationship between deer density and TBE occurrence on a local scale (defined by the minimum overlapping area of host species) could be attributed to deer (incompetent hosts) diverting questing ticks from rodents (competent hosts), know as the 'dilution effect hypothesis'. We observed that, after an initial increase, the number of ticks feeding on rodents reached a peak for an intermediate value of estimated deer density and then decreased. Therefore, while at a regional scale, tick host availability has already been shown to be directly correlated with TBE distribution, our results suggest that the interactions between deer, rodents and ticks are much more complex on a local scale, supporting the possibility of a dilution effect for TBE.     

The shifting landscape of tick-borne zoonoses: tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme borreliosis in Europe

The two major vector-borne diseases of northern temperate regions, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme borreliosis (LB), show very different epidemiological patterns, but both have increased significantly in incidence since the 1980s. Insight into the temporal dynamics of TBE, gained from statistical analysis of spatial patterns integrated with biological explanation, suggests that the recent increases in TBE cases in Central Europe and the Baltic States may have arisen largely from changes in human behaviour that have brought more people into contact with infected ticks. Under forecast climate change scenarios, it is predicted that enzootic cycles of TBE virus may not survive along the southern edge of their present range, e.g. in Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary, where case numbers are indeed decreasing. New foci, however, are predicted and have been observed in Scandinavia. At the same time, human impact on the landscape, increasing both the habitat and wildlife hosts of ticks, has allowed tick populations to multiply significantly. This probably accounts for a genuine emergence of LB, with its high potential transmission rate, in both the USA and Europe, although the rate of emergence has been exaggerated by improved surveillance and diagnosis.     

Attachment site selection of ticks on roe deer, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>

The spatio-temporal attachment site patterns of ticks feeding on their hosts can be of significance if co-feeding transmission (i.e. from tick to tick without a systemic infection of the host) of pathogens affects the persistence of a given disease. Using tick infestation data on roe deer, we analysed preferred attachment sites and niche width of Ixodes ticks (larvae, nymphs, males, females) and investigated the degree of inter- and intrastadial aggregation. The different development stages showed rather consistent attachment site patterns and relative narrow feeding site niches. Larvae were mostly found on the head and on the front legs of roe deer, nymphs reached highest densities on the head and highest adult densities were found on the neck of roe deer. The tick stages feeding (larvae, nymphs, females) on roe deer showed high degrees of intrastadial spatial aggregation, whereas males did not. Male ticks showed large feeding site overlap with female ticks. Feeding site overlap between larval-female and larval-nymphal ticks did occur especially during the months May–August on the head and front legs of roe deer and might allow pathogen transmission via co-feeding. Tick density, niche width and niche overlap on roe deer are mainly affected by seasonality, reflecting seasonal activity and abundance patterns of ticks. Since different tick development stages occur spatially and temporally clustered on roe deer, transmission experiments of tick-borne pathogens are urgently needed.     

Changes in host densities and co-feeding pattern efficiently predict tick-borne encephalitis hazard in an endemic focus in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis is an important zoonosis in many parts of north-western, central and eastern Europe, Russia and the Far East, with considerable altitudinal and latitudinal shifts described during recent decades. The reported routes of transmission for TBE virus include the saliva-activated non-viraemic transmission between co-feeding ticks taking place on rodent hosts. During the period 2001–2014, a population of the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis), which is considered among the most efficient TBE competent host, especially in central and western Europe, was intensively live-trapped in a known TBE focus in the Province of Trento, Italy. Individual live-trapped mice were checked for the number and position of feeding ticks and serologically screened for TBEv antibodies. A combined effect of climatic conditions and density of both roe deer and mice on the number of co-feeding tick groups was observed. Specifically, the occurrence of co-feeding ticks on mice during the questing season was affected by autumnal cooling in the previous season. On the other hand, co-feeding occurrence was also positively associated with roe deer abundance, while mouse density showed a hump-shaped pattern. Individual features of A. flavicollis such as weight and sex also affected co-feeding occurrence with the heaviest (breeding adult) males carrying more co-feeding ticks. We also found that the overall number of co-feeding ticks on mice positively affected TBEv antibody detection in this species the following year. In conclusion, a specific combination of climatic conditions in conjunction with certain rodent and roe deer densities are the principal determinants of the number of co-feeding ticks on A. flavicollis and, consequently, TBEv circulation. These variables can be used to provide an early warning signal for a TBE hazard, thus representing a useful tool for Public Health authorities to prepare action for prevention and control within TBEv circulation areas.     

A paretic condition in an Anaplasma phagocytophilum infected roe deer calf

This paper describes a case of Anaplasma phagocytophilum infection in a roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) calf in Norway. The calf was found deserted, paretic, and heavily infested with Ixodes ricinus ticks. It was euthanized and investigated postmortem. Anaplasma phagocytophilum was detected in several tissues by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and 16S rRNA sequence analyses. Analyses for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus infections were negative. This is the first report of a possible paretic condition in A. phagocytophilum infected roe deer.     

Ixodes ricinus, transmitted diseases and reservoirs

The tick Ixodes ricinus has been recorded in most Italian regions especially in thermo-mesophilous woods and shrubby habitats where the relative humidity allow the tick to complete its 3 year developmental cycle, as predicted for the European climatic ranges. This tick acts both as vector and reservoir for a series of wildlife zoonotic pathogens, especially the agents of Lyme diseases, Tick borne encephalitis and Human Granulocytic Ehrlichiosis, which are emerging in most of Europe. To assess the spatial distribution of these pathogens and the infection risk for humans and animals within the territory of the Province of Trento, we carried out a long term study using a combination of eco-epidemiological surveys and mathematical modelling. An extensive tick collection with a GIS based habitat suitability analysis allowed us to identify the areas where tick occurs at various density. To identify the areas with higher infection risk, we estimated the values of R0 for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l., TBE virus and Anaplasma phagocytophila under different ecological conditions. We assessed the infection prevalence in the vector and in the wildlife reservoir species that play a central role in the persistence of these infections, ie the small mammals A. flavicollis and C. glareolus. We also considered the double effect of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) which act as reservoir for A. phagocytophila but is an incompetent host for B. burgdorferi and TBE virus, thus reducing the infection prevalence in ticks of these last two pathogens. Infection prevalence with B. burgdorferi and A. phagocytophila in the vector was assessed by PCR screening 1212 I. ricinus nymphs collected by dragging in six main study areas during 2002. The mean infection prevalence recorded was 1.32% for B. burgdorferi s.l. and 9.84% for A. phagocytophila. Infection prevalence in nymphs with TBE virus, as assessed in a previous study was 0.03%. Infection prevalence in rodents was assessed by screening (with ELISA and PCR) tissues and blood samples collected from 367 rodent individuals trapped extensively during 2002 within 6 main study areas. A. flavicollis (N=238) was found to be infected with all three pathogens investigated, with infection prevalence ranging from 3.3% for TBE virus to 11.7% for A. phagocytophila, and 16.6% with B. burgdorferi s.l. C. glareolus (N=108) showed an infection prevalence of 6.5% with A. phagocytophila and 12.7% with B. burgdorferi s.l., while no individuals were infected with TBE virus. We also screened 98 spleen samples collected from roe deer with PCR, resulting in a mean prevalence of infection with A. phagocytophila of 19.8%. Using a deterministic model we explored the condition for diseases persistence under different rodent and roe deer densities. R0 values resulted largely above 1 for B. burgdorferi s.l. in the vast majority of the areas classified as suitable for I. ricinus occurrence in Trentino, while the condition for TBE persistence appeared to be more restricted by a combination of climatic condition and host densities.     

Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tick-borne diseases?

The impact of climate change on vector-borne infectious diseases is currently controversial. In Europe the primary arthropod vectors of zoonotic diseases are ticks, which transmit Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (the agent of Lyme disease), tick-borne encephalitis virus and louping ill virus between humans, livestock and wildlife. Ixodes ricinus ticks and reported tick-borne disease cases are currently increasing in the UK. Theories for this include climate change and increasing host abundance. This study aimed to test how I. ricinus tick abundance might be influenced by climate change in Scotland by using altitudinal gradients as a proxy, while also taking into account the effects of hosts, vegetation and weather effects. It was predicted that tick abundance would be higher at lower altitudes (i.e. warmer climates) and increase with host abundance. Surveys were conducted on nine hills in Scotland, all of open moorland habitat. Tick abundance was positively associated with deer abundance, but even after taking this into account, there was a strong negative association of ticks with altitude. This was probably a real climate effect, with temperature (and humidity, i.e. saturation deficit) most likely playing an important role. It could be inferred that ticks may become more abundant at higher altitudes in response to climate warming. This has potential implications for pathogen prevalence such as louping ill virus if tick numbers increase at elevations where competent transmission hosts (red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus and mountain hares Lepus timidus) occur in higher numbers.     

完达山林区森林采伐和非采伐区马鹿、狍子对冬季生境因子选择的比较

2003—2005年的冬季,在黑龙江省完达山地区的五泡林场,通过样线调查,利用逐步判别分析的方法,对冬季马鹿和狍子在森林采伐区和非采伐区生境选择的差异进行了比较研究,其结果表明,在该地区虽然两物种在生境选择上发生部分重叠,但在生境利用方式上均存在显著差异在采伐区马鹿主要利用中坡位或上坡位、半阴半阳或阳坡、人为干扰距离大于1000m、海拔相对较高、食物丰富度较高、乔木胸径较小、灌木密度较高的灌丛或杂木林生境;狍子主要利用中坡位或下坡位、阳坡、海拔相对较低、食物丰富度适中、乔木胸径较大、灌木密度较低、人为干扰距离要求不严格的杂木林或柞树林生境。在非采伐区,马鹿主要选择距人为干扰大于1000m、海拔较高、食物丰富度较高、乔木胸径较小的杂木林生境;狍子主要选择中坡位或下坡位、人为干扰距离要求不严格、海拔较低、食物丰富度较适中和乔木胸径较大的杂木林或杨-桦混交林生境。     

Interrelations between Ixodes persulcatus ticks and the tick-borne encephalitis virus of the red vole (Clethrionomys rutilis) in western Siberia

We present the data of 12-year survey (1989-2001) of the red vole population in southeastern West Siberia, including estimation of host relative numbers, abundance of immature taiga ticks, and percentage of animals with antigemagglutitnins against tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus. We discuss the role of demographic groups of voles as tick's hosts and their participation in the maintenance of TBE causative agent population. The estimation of spontaneous TBE infection rate in summer as well as in winter and early spring seasons, which have been made using a set of molecular-biological, serological and virological methods, demonstrates that a high proportion of red voles maintain non-pathogenic TBE causative agent over a long time, presumably, in the form of persistent infection.     

Tick burden on European roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>)

In our study we assessed the tick burden on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.) in relation to age, physical condition, sex, deer density and season. The main objective was to find predictive parameters for tick burden. In September 2007, May, July, and September 2008, and in May and July 2009 we collected ticks on 142 culled roe deer from nine forest departments in Southern Hesse, Germany. To correlate tick burden and deer density we estimated deer density using line transect sampling that accounts for different detectability in March 2008 and 2009, respectively. We collected more than 8,600 ticks from roe deer heads and necks, 92.6% of which were Ixodes spp., 7.4% Dermacentor spp. Among Ixodes, 3.3% were larvae, 50.5% nymphs, 34.8% females and 11.4% males, with significant seasonal deviation. Total tick infestation was high, with considerable individual variation (from 0 to 270 ticks/deer). Adult tick burden was positively correlated with roe deer body indices (body mass, age, hind foot length). Significantly more nymphs were found on deer from forest departments with high roe deer density indices, indicating a positive correlation with deer abundance. Overall, tick burden was highly variable. Seasonality and large scale spatial characteristics appeared to be the most important factors affecting tick burden on roe deer.     

Tick-borne encephalitis in the Maritime Territory

On the basis of epidemiological analysis carried out at the period of 1940-1987, a decrease in tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) morbidity was registered; at the same time time the disease invariably took, as before, a clinically severe course. The most dangerous foci of TBE were found to be located in the southern Okhotsk region grown with dark coniferous forests. The subsiding and activation of the natural foci of TBE in different regions of the territory were established and some heretofore unknown foci in southern regions of the Maritime Territory were found. Ixodes mites inhabiting the Maritime Territory were shown to have a low level of virus carriership, thus causing the low level of population immunity to TBE virus. Combined foci of TBE and Powassan encephalitis were found.     

First detection of TBE virus sequences in Ixodes ricinus from Friuli Venezia Giulia (Italy)

We report, for the first time, the presence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus in the tick Ixodes ricinus collected in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region of north-eastern Italy. Using molecular methods, we demonstrate that the TBE virus carried by ticks from FVG is a western European strain. Sequence analysis of the 5' NCR showed 98.4% identity to the Neudoerfl strain.     

Tick–Host–Borrelia Population Interactions: Long-Term Records in Eastern Europe

During 10 spring and summer seasons (1992–2001), the dynamics of the epizootic process in natural foci were studied in taiga forests of the Pre-Ural region, Russia. In these foci, Borrelia garinii, Borrelia afzelii and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus circulate transmitted by their main vector tick, Ixodes persulcatus. Main parameters of the epizootic process were calculated for each season. In three seasons (1993, 1996, and 1999) all parameters characterizing the abundance of unfed nymphs and adult ticks, as well as the prevalence of Borrelia and TBE virus in them, increased sharply and simultaneously. These seasons were preceded by years of population peaks in forest rodents (1992, 1995, and 1998), especially Clethrionomys glareolus voles, the dominant species in the local mammalian fauna. Apparently, the possibility of horizontal transmission of the agents of tick-borne infections sharply increases in such years and this results in the intensification of their dissemination. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Predictive map of Ixodes ricinus high-incidence habitats and a tick-borne encephalitis risk assessment using satellite data

The main objective of this project was to predict Ixodes ricinus abundant habitats reliably as a means of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) risk assessment for the prevention of this disease. The vegetation types were used as the indicators of an ecosystem suitable for tick occurrence, for TBE virus circulation and, accordingly, for the existence of natural foci of this infection. Remote sensing methods were used to determine the indicative plant cover. Satellite data covering an experimental area of 70 × 70 km in Central Bohemia, the Czech Republic, was acquired by the Landsat 5 TM scanner. Nine forest classes were recognized in the experimental area by successive supervised and unsupervised classifications and identified in a field-checking botanical survey. An epidemiological TBE map based on human cases contracted in the territory under study was exploited for the evaluation of risk in particular forest classes. Predictive maps are expressed both in digital and in printed forms at a scale of 1 : 300 000 for an overall risk evaluation and at a scale of 1 : 25 000 for a detailed local orientation.