The effect of disease life history on the evolutionary emergence of novel pathogens

We present a general analytical result for the probability that a newly introduced pathogen will evolve adaptations that allow it to maintain itself within any novel host population, as a function of disease life-history parameters. We demonstrate that this probability of "evolutionary emergence" depends on two key properties of the disease life history: (i) the basic reproduction number and (ii) the expected duration of an infection. These parameters encapsulate all of the relevant information and can be combined in a very simple expression, with estimates for the rates of adaptive mutation, to predict the probability of emergence for any novel pathogen. In general, diseases that initially have a large reproductive number and/or that cause relatively long infections are the most prone to evolutionary adaptation.     

Novel insights into the emergence of pathogens: the case of chestnut blight

Exotic, invasive pathogens have emerged repeatedly and continue to emerge to threaten the world’s forests. Ecosystem structure and function can be permanently changed when keystone tree species such as the American chestnut (Castanea dentata) are eliminated from a whole range by disease. The fungal ascomycete pathogen Cryphonectria parasitica is responsible for causing chestnut blight. Once the pathogen was introduced into the Eastern US, where chestnuts were predominant, chestnuts were all but eliminated. This pathogen is currently causing extensive damage in Europe. A study in this issue of Molecular Ecology sheds new light on the pattern and process of emergence of this devastating plant pathogen ( Dutech et al. 2012 ). The authors used microsatellite markers to investigate the evolutionary history of C. parasitica populations introduced into North America and Europe. To infer sources of migrants and the migration events, the authors included putative source populations endemic to China and Japan, inferred potentially unsampled populations and conducted a multivariate population genetic and complex ABC analysis. Cryphonectria parasitica emerges as an example of an introduced pathogen with limited genotypic diversity and some admixture in the invaded ranges, yet repeated invasions into different areas of Europe and the United States. This work sheds new light on the emergence of C. parasitica providing compelling evidence that this pathogen emerged by repeated migration and occasional admixture.     

Pathogen evolution and disease emergence in carnivores

Emerging infectious diseases constitute some of the most pressing problems for both human and domestic animal health, and biodiversity conservation. Currently it is not clear whether the removal of past constraints on geographical distribution and transmission possibilities for pathogens alone are sufficient to give rise to novel host-pathogen combinations, or whether pathogen evolution is also generally required for establishment in novel hosts. Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a morbillivirus that is prevalent in the world dog population and poses an important conservation threat to a diverse range of carnivores. We performed an extensive phylogenetic and molecular evolution analysis on complete sequences of all CDV genes to assess the role of selection and recombination in shaping viral genetic diversity and driving the emergence of CDV in non-dog hosts. We tested the specific hypothesis that molecular adaptation at known receptor-binding sites of the haemagglutinin gene is associated with independent instances of the spread of CDV to novel non-dog hosts in the wild. This hypothesis was upheld, providing compelling evidence that repeated evolution at known functional sites (in this case residues 530 and 549 of the haemagglutinin molecule) is associated with multiple independent occurrences of disease emergence in a range of novel host species.     

The sudden emergence of pathogenicity in insect-fungus symbioses threatens naive forest ecosystems

Invasive symbioses between wood-boring insects and fungi are emerging as a new and currently uncontrollable threat to forest ecosystems, as well as fruit and timber industries throughout the world. The bark and ambrosia beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae and Platypodinae) constitute the large majority of these pests, and are accompanied by a diverse community of fungal symbionts. Increasingly, some invasive symbioses are shifting from non-pathogenic saprotrophy in native ranges to a prolific tree-killing in invaded ranges, and are causing significant damage. In this paper, we review the current understanding of invasive insect-fungus symbioses. We then ask why some symbioses that evolved as non-pathogenic saprotrophs, turn into major tree-killers in non-native regions. We argue that a purely pathology-centred view of the guild is not sufficient for explaining the lethal encounters between exotic symbionts and naive trees. Instead, we propose several testable hypotheses that, if correct, lead to the conclusion that the sudden emergence of pathogenicity is a new evolutionary phenomenon with global biogeographical dynamics. To date, evidence suggests that virulence of the symbioses in invaded ranges is often triggered when several factors coincide: (i) invasion into territories with naive trees, (ii) the ability of the fungus to either overcome resistance of the naive host or trigger a suicidal over-reaction, and (iii) an 'olfactory mismatch' in the insect whereby a subset of live trees is perceived as dead and suitable for colonization. We suggest that individual cases of tree mortality caused by invasive insect-fungus symbionts should no longer be studied separately, but in a global, biogeographically and phylogenetically explicit comparative framework.     

Retracted: MHC diversity and differential exposure to pathogens in kestrels (Aves: Falconidae)

Pathogen diversity is thought to drive major histocompatibility complex (MHC) polymorphism given that host’s immune repertories are dependent on antigen recognition capabilities. Here, we surveyed an extensive community of pathogens (n = 35 taxa) and MHC diversity in mainland versus island subspecies of the Eurasian kestrel Falco tinnunculus and in a sympatric mainland population of the phylogenetically related lesser kestrel Falco naumanni. Insular subspecies are commonly exposed to impoverished pathogen communities whilst different species’ ecologies and contrasting life‐history traits may lead to different levels of pathogen exposure. Although specific host traits may explain differential particular infections, overall pathogen diversity, richness and prevalence were higher in the truly cosmopolitan, euriphagous and long‐distance disperser Eurasian kestrel than in the estenophagous, steppe‐specialist, philopatric but long‐distance migratory lesser kestrel. Accordingly, the continental population of Eurasian kestrels displayed a higher number (64 vs. 49) as well as more divergent alleles at both MHC class I and class II loci. Detailed analyses of amino acid diversity revealed that significant differences between both species were exclusive to those functionally important codons comprising the antigen binding sites. The lowest pathogen burdens and the smallest but still quite divergent set of MHC alleles (n = 16) were found in island Eurasian kestrels, where the rates of allele fixation at MHC loci seem to have occurred faster than at neutral markers. The results presented in this study would therefore support the role of pathogen diversity and abundance in shaping patterns of genetic variation at evolutionary relevant MHC genes.     

Developing insect models for the study of current and emerging human pathogens

The study of human diseases requires the testing of microorganisms in model systems. Although mammals are typically used, we argue the validity of using insects as models in order to examine human diseases, particularly the growing number of opportunistic microorganisms. Insects can be used in large numbers, are easily manipulated, and are not subject to the same ethical concerns as mammalian systems. Insects and mammals have many parallels with respect to microbial pathogenesis, from proteinaceous integuments that require breaching before infection to similarities in their innate immune responses. Reactions of insects to Candida and Pseudomonas spp. infections show good correlation with mouse models, providing precedent-setting examples of the study of human pathogens using insects. Insects as pathogen hosts also warrant study because they may act as reservoirs for emerging human pathogens. Finally, insect models may be used to examine the evolutionary processes involved in the acquisition of virulence factors and host-jumping mechanisms indispensable to emerging pathogens. Insect models may be used in 'niche' investigations where large sample sizes can facilitate rapid, informative screening of opportunistic diseases and provide insights into pathogen evolution, while reducing the cost and ethical concerns associated with mammalian models.     

Refugia and the evolutionary epidemiology of drug resistance

Drug resistance is a long-standing economic, veterinary and human health concern in human and animal populations. Efficacy of prophylactic drug treatments targeting a particular pathogen is often short-lived, as drug-resistant pathogens evolve and reach high frequency in a treated population. Methods to combat drug resistance are usually costly, including use of multiple drugs that are applied jointly or sequentially, or development of novel classes of drugs. Alternatively, there is growing interest in exploiting untreated host populations, refugia, for the management of drug resistance. Refugia do not experience selection for resistance, and serve as a reservoir for native, drug-susceptible pathogens. The force of infection from refugia may dilute the frequency of resistant pathogens in the treated population, potentially at an acceptable cost in terms of overall disease burden. We examine this concept using a simple mathematical model that captures the core mechanisms of transmission and selection common to many host–pathogen systems. We identify the roles of selection and gene flow in determining the utility of refugia.     

Strategy selection under predation; evolutionary analysis of the emergence of cohesive aggregations

Why do animals form groups? This question has formed the basis of numerous scientific studies over the last hundred years and still remains a controversial topic. Predation is one of the foremost candidates, yet the precise mechanism remains quantitatively elusive. Here I investigate in silico the effect of ongoing predation on groups of heterogeneous individuals behaving according to a well-documented individual based model. I examine the resultant evolutionary trajectories and describe the final selected states and their stability with reference to a qualitatively modified version of adaptive dynamics. The speed of individuals is found to dominate the selection of the final state over other parameters in the model. The relative stability of the groups and their internal configurations are discussed with reference to novel structural correlation functions that are defined and introduced. The results reveal the importance of tightly bound toroidal group structures as an intermediate state prior to the emergence of slow compact groups. The study also indicates the need to more accurately model the speed distributions in real aggregations.     

Adaptation in the env gene of HIV-1 and evolutionary theories of disease progression

The exact mechanisms by which HIV overwhelms the immune system remain poorly understood. Among the several explanations of HIV disease progression, most include adaptation of the viral genome to the host environment as a causal factor. Therefore, quantifying the rate and pattern of adaptive evolution within infected patients is critical to understanding the development of AIDS. Using sequence data from infected individuals sampled at multiple time points, I estimate the within-host adaptation rate of the HIV-1 env gene for viral populations from 50 different patients. I find that, averaging across patients, one adaptive substitution occurs every 3.3 months. Also, one adaptive mutation is driven to a high frequency (>50% but <100%) every 2.5 months. Taken together, such adaptive events occur once every 25 viral generations, which is the fastest adaptation rate ever recorded for a single protein-coding gene. Within the entire env gene, I estimate that a majority ( approximately 55%) of both nonsynonymous substitutions and high-frequency polymorphisms are adaptive. Further, in the C2-V5 region of env, I find that patients with longer asymptomatic periods have virus populations with higher adaptation rates, corroborating the notion that a broad, strong immune response against epitopes in the env gene product leads to longer asymptomatic periods. I conclude by discussing the distribution of nonsynonymous changes over the env gene.     

The relationship between microsatellite slippage mutation rate and the number of repeat units

Microsatellite markers are widely used for genetic studies, but the relationship between microsatellite slippage mutation rate and the number of repeat units remains unclear. In this study, microsatellite distributions in the human genome are collected from public sequence databases. We observe that there is a threshold size for slippage mutations. We consider a model of microsatellite mutation consisting of point mutations and single stepwise slippage mutations. From two sets of equations based on two stochastic processes and equilibrium assumptions, we estimate microsatellite slippage mutation rates without assuming any relationship between microsatellite slippage mutation rate and the number of repeat units. We use the least squares method with constraints to estimate expansion and contraction mutation rates. The estimated slippage mutation rate increases exponentially as the number of repeat units increases. When slippage mutations happen, expansion occurs more frequently for short microsatellites and contraction occurs more frequently for long microsatellites. Our results agree with the length-dependent mutation pattern observed from experimental data, and they explain the scarcity of long microsatellites.     

A cascade of evolutionary change alters consumer-resource dynamics and ecosystem function

It is becoming increasingly clear that intraspecific evolutionary divergence influences the properties of populations, communities and ecosystems. The different ecological impacts of phenotypes and genotypes may alter selection on many species and promote a cascade of ecological and evolutionary change throughout the food web. Theory predicts that evolutionary interactions across trophic levels may contribute to hypothesized feedbacks between ecology and evolution. However, the importance of 'cascading evolutionary change' in a natural setting is unknown. In lakes in Connecticut, USA, variation in migratory behaviour and feeding morphology of a fish predator, the alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), drives life-history evolution in a species of zooplankton prey (Daphnia ambigua). Here we evaluated the reciprocal impacts of Daphnia evolution on ecological processes in laboratory mesocosms. We show that life-history evolution in Daphnia facilitates divergence in rates of population growth, which in turn significantly alters consumer-resource dynamics and ecosystem function. These experimental results parallel trends observed in lakes. Such results argue that a cascade of evolutionary change, which has occurred over contemporary timescales, alters community and ecosystem processes.     

Fim operon variation in the emergence of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli: an evolutionary and functional analysis

Fim operons were examined to illuminate the emergence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 from the less-virulent E. coli O55:H7. A fim invertible element deletion occurred only after O157:H7 descended from O55:H7, and after sorbitol nonfermenting O157 diverged. Type 1 pili nonexpression correlates with this deletion in all enterohemorrhagic E. coli (EHEC) tested. An N135K FimH mutation in the two most evolved O157:H7 clusters is not found in other EHEC. These data refine the evolutionary history of an emerging pathogen.     

On the potential for evolutionary change in meristematic cell lineages through intraorganismal selection

In the absence of sexual recombination somatic mutations represent the only source of genetic variation in clonally propagating plants. We analyse the probability of such somatic mutations in the shoot apical meristem being fixed in descendant generations of meristems. A model of meristem cell dynamics is presented for the unstratified shoot apical meristem. The fate of one mutant initial is studied for a two- and three-celled shoot apical meristem. The main parameters of the model are the number of apical initials, the time between selection cycles, number of selection cycles and cell viability of the mutant genotype. As the number of mitotic divisions per selection cycle and number of selection cycles increases the chimeric state dissipates and the probability of mutation fixation approaches an asymptote. The value of this fixation asymptote depends primarily on cell viability, while the time to reach it is mainly influenced by the total number of mitotic divisions as well as the number of initials. In contrast to the presumed operation of Muller’s Ratchet in plants the chimeric state may represent an opportunity for deleterious mutations to be eliminated through intraorganismal selection or random drift. We conclude that intraorganismal selection not only can be a substantial force for the elimination of deleterious mutations, but also can have the potential to confer an evolutionary change through a meristematic cell lineage alone.     

An island paradigm on the mainland: host population fragmentation impairs the community of avian pathogens

Emergent infectious diseases represent a major threat for biodiversity in fragmented habitat networks, but their dynamics in host metapopulations remain largely unexplored. We studied a large community of pathogens (including 26 haematozoans, bacteria and viruses as determined through polymerase chain reaction assays) in a highly fragmented mainland bird metapopulation. Contrary to recent studies, which have established that the prevalence of pathogens increase with habitat fragmentation owing to crowding and habitat-edge effects, the analysed pathogen parameters were neither dependent on host densities nor related to the spatial structure of the metapopulation. We provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical evidence for a positive effect of host population size on pathogen prevalence, richness and diversity. These new insights into the interplay between habitat fragmentation and pathogens reveal properties of a host-pathogen system resembling island environments, suggesting that severe habitat loss and fragmentation could lower pathogen pressure in small populations.     

Evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits without positive Darwinian selection

Recent evidence suggests the frequent occurrence of a simple non-Darwinian (but non-Lamarckian) model for the evolution of adaptive phenotypic traits, here entitled the plasticity-relaxation-mutation (PRM) mechanism. This mechanism involves ancestral phenotypic plasticity followed by specialization in one alternative environment and thus the permanent expression of one alternative phenotype. Once this specialization occurs, purifying selection on the molecular basis of other phenotypes is relaxed. Finally, mutations that permanently eliminate the pathways leading to alternative phenotypes can be fixed by genetic drift. Although the generality of the PRM mechanism is at present unknown, I discuss evidence for its widespread occurrence, including the prevalence of exaptations in evolution, evidence that phenotypic plasticity has preceded adaptation in a number of taxa and evidence that adaptive traits have resulted from loss of alternative developmental pathways. The PRM mechanism can easily explain cases of explosive adaptive radiation, as well as recently reported cases of apparent adaptive evolution over ecological time.