A Multi-scale Analysis of Influenza A Virus Fitness Trade-offs due to Temperature-dependent Virus Persistence

Successful replication within an infected host and successful transmission between hosts are key to the continued spread of most pathogens. Competing selection pressures exerted at these different scales can lead to evolutionary trade-offs between the determinants of fitness within and between hosts. Here, we examine such a trade-off in the context of influenza A viruses and the differential pressures exerted by temperature-dependent virus persistence. For a panel of avian influenza A virus strains, we find evidence for a trade-off between the persistence at high versus low temperatures. Combining a within-host model of influenza infection dynamics with a between-host transmission model, we study how such a trade-off affects virus fitness on the host population level. We show that conclusions regarding overall fitness are affected by the type of link assumed between the within- and between-host levels and the main route of transmission (direct or environmental). The relative importance of virulence and immune response mediated virus clearance are also found to influence the fitness impacts of virus persistence at low versus high temperatures. Based on our results, we predict that if transmission occurs mainly directly and scales linearly with virus load, and virulence or immune responses are negligible, the evolutionary pressure for influenza viruses to evolve toward good persistence at high within-host temperatures dominates. For all other scenarios, influenza viruses with good environmental persistence at low temperatures seem to be favored.     

Within-Host Stochastic Emergence Dynamics of Immune-Escape Mutants

Predicting the emergence of new pathogenic strains is a key goal of evolutionary epidemiology. However, the majority of existing studies have focussed on emergence at the population level, and not within a host. In particular, the coexistence of pre-existing and mutated strains triggers a heightened immune response due to the larger total pathogen population; this feedback can smother mutated strains before they reach an ample size and establish. Here, we extend previous work for measuring emergence probabilities in non-equilibrium populations, to within-host models of acute infections. We create a mathematical model to investigate the emergence probability of a fitter strain if it mutates from a self-limiting strain that is guaranteed to go extinct in the long-term. We show that ongoing immune cell proliferation during the initial stages of infection causes a drastic reduction in the probability of emergence of mutated strains; we further outline how this effect can be accurately measured. Further analysis of the model shows that, in the short-term, mutant strains that enlarge their replication rate due to evolving an increased growth rate are more favoured than strains that suffer a lower immune-mediated death rate (‘immune tolerance’), as the latter does not completely evade ongoing immune proliferation due to inter-parasitic competition. We end by discussing the model in relation to within-host evolution of human pathogens (including HIV, hepatitis C virus, and cancer), and how ongoing immune growth can affect their evolutionary dynamics.     

Trade-offs between and within scales: environmental persistence and within-host fitness of avian influenza viruses

Trade-offs between different components of a pathogen''s replication and transmission cycle are thought to be common. A number of studies have identified trade-offs that emerge across scales, reflecting the tension between strategies that optimize within-host proliferation and large-scale population spread. Most of these studies are theoretical in nature, with direct experimental tests of such cross-scale trade-offs still rare. Here, we report an analysis of avian influenza A viruses across scales, focusing on the phenotype of temperature-dependent viral persistence. Taking advantage of a unique dataset that reports both environmental virus decay rates and strain-specific viral kinetics from duck challenge experiments, we show that the temperature-dependent environmental decay rate of a strain does not impact within-host virus load. Hence, for this phenotype, the scales of within-host infection dynamics and between-host environmental persistence do not seem to interact: viral fitness may be optimized on each scale without cross-scale trade-offs. Instead, we confirm the existence of a temperature-dependent persistence trade-off on a single scale, with some strains favouring environmental persistence in water at low temperatures while others reduce sensitivity to increasing temperatures. We show that this temperature-dependent trade-off is a robust phenomenon and does not depend on the details of data analysis. Our findings suggest that viruses might employ different environmental persistence strategies, which facilitates the coexistence of diverse strains in ecological niches. We conclude that a better understanding of the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of influenza A viruses probably requires empirical information regarding both within-host dynamics and environmental traits, integrated within a combined ecological and within-host framework.     

Cheating, trade-offs and the evolution of aggressiveness in a natural pathogen population

The evolutionary dynamics of pathogens are critically important for disease outcomes, prevalence and emergence. In this study we investigate ecological conditions that may promote the long-term maintenance of virulence polymorphisms in pathogen populations. Recent theory predicts that evolution towards increased virulence can be reversed if less-aggressive social 'cheats' exploit more aggressive 'cooperator' pathogens. However, there is no evidence that social exploitation operates within natural pathogen populations. We show that for the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, major polymorphisms for pathogenicity are maintained at unexpectedly high frequencies in populations infecting the host Arabidopsis thaliana. Experiments reveal that less-aggressive strains substantially increase their growth potential in mixed infections and have a fitness advantage in non-host environments. These results suggest that niche differentiation can contribute to the maintenance of virulence polymorphisms, and that both within-host and between-host growth rates modulate cheating and cooperation in P. syringae populations.     

Crossing the scale from within-host infection dynamics to between-host transmission fitness: a discussion of current assumptions and knowledge

The progression of an infection within a host determines the ability of a pathogen to transmit to new hosts and to maintain itself in the population. While the general connection between the infection dynamics within a host and the population-level transmission dynamics of pathogens is widely acknowledged, a comprehensive and quantitative understanding that would allow full integration of the two scales is still lacking. Here, we provide a brief discussion of both models and data that have attempted to provide quantitative mappings from within-host infection dynamics to transmission fitness. We present a conceptual framework and provide examples of studies that have taken first steps towards development of a quantitative framework that scales from within-host infections to population-level fitness of different pathogens. We hope to illustrate some general themes, summarize some of the recent advances and—maybe most importantly—discuss gaps in our ability to bridge these scales, and to stimulate future research on this important topic.     

Antigenic Diversity,Transmission Mechanisms,and the Evolution of Pathogens

Pathogens have evolved diverse strategies to maximize their transmission fitness. Here we investigate these strategies for directly transmitted pathogens using mathematical models of disease pathogenesis and transmission, modeling fitness as a function of within- and between-host pathogen dynamics. The within-host model includes realistic constraints on pathogen replication via resource depletion and cross-immunity between pathogen strains. We find three distinct types of infection emerge as maxima in the fitness landscape, each characterized by particular within-host dynamics, host population contact network structure, and transmission mode. These three infection types are associated with distinct non-overlapping ranges of levels of antigenic diversity, and well-defined patterns of within-host dynamics and between-host transmissibility. Fitness, quantified by the basic reproduction number, also falls within distinct ranges for each infection type. Every type is optimal for certain contact structures over a range of contact rates. Sexually transmitted infections and childhood diseases are identified as exemplar types for low and high contact rates, respectively. This work generates a plausible mechanistic hypothesis for the observed tradeoff between pathogen transmissibility and antigenic diversity, and shows how different classes of pathogens arise evolutionarily as fitness optima for different contact network structures and host contact rates.     

Lethal mutagenesis and evolutionary epidemiology

The lethal mutagenesis hypothesis states that within-host populations of pathogens can be driven to extinction when the load of deleterious mutations is artificially increased with a mutagen, and becomes too high for the population to be maintained. Although chemical mutagens have been shown to lead to important reductions in viral titres for a wide variety of RNA viruses, the theoretical underpinnings of this process are still not clearly established. A few recent models sought to describe lethal mutagenesis but they often relied on restrictive assumptions. We extend this earlier work in two novel directions. First, we derive the dynamics of the genetic load in a multivariate Gaussian fitness landscape akin to classical quantitative genetics models. This fitness landscape yields a continuous distribution of mutation effects on fitness, ranging from deleterious to beneficial (i.e. compensatory) mutations. We also include an additional class of lethal mutations. Second, we couple this evolutionary model with an epidemiological model accounting for the within-host dynamics of the pathogen. We derive the epidemiological and evolutionary equilibrium of the system. At this equilibrium, the density of the pathogen is expected to decrease linearly with the genomic mutation rate U. We also provide a simple expression for the critical mutation rate leading to extinction. Stochastic simulations show that these predictions are accurate for a broad range of parameter values. As they depend on a small set of measurable epidemiological and evolutionary parameters, we used available information on several viruses to make quantitative and testable predictions on critical mutation rates. In the light of this model, we discuss the feasibility of lethal mutagenesis as an efficient therapeutic strategy.     

Parasite Replication and the Evolutionary Epidemiology of Parasite Virulence

Parasite virulence evolution is shaped by both within-host and population-level processes yet the link between these differing scales of infection is often neglected. Population structure and heterogeneity in both parasites and hosts will affect how hosts are exploited by pathogens and the intensity of infection. Here, it is shown how the degree of relatedness among parasites together with epidemiological parameters such as pathogen yield and longevity influence the evolution of virulence. Furthermore, the role of kin competition and the degree of cheating within highly structured parasite populations also influences parasite fitness and infectivity patterns. Understanding how the effects of within-host processes scale up to affect the epidemiology has importance for understanding host-pathogen interactions.     

What limits the evolutionary emergence of pathogens?

The ability of a pathogen to cause an epidemic when introduced in a new host population often relies on its ability to adapt to this new environment. Here, we give a brief overview of recent theoretical and empirical studies of such evolutionary emergence of pathogens. We discuss the effects of several ecological and genetic factors that may affect the likelihood of emergence: migration, life history of the infectious agent, host heterogeneity, and the rate and effects of mutations. We contrast different modelling approaches and indicate how details in the way we model each step of a life cycle can have important consequences on the predicted probability of evolutionary emergence. These different theoretical perspectives yield important insights into optimal surveillance and intervention strategies, which should aim for a reduction in the emergence (and re-emergence) of infectious diseases.     

Migrate or evolve: options for plant pathogens under climate change

Findings on climate change influence on plant pathogens are often inconsistent and context dependent. Knowledge of pathogens affecting agricultural crops and natural plant communities remains fragmented along disciplinary lines. By broadening the perspective beyond agriculture, this review integrates cross‐disciplinary knowledge to show that at scales relevant to climate change, accelerated evolution and changing geographic distribution will be the main implications for pathogens. New races may evolve rapidly under elevated temperature and CO₂, as evolutionary forces act on massive pathogen populations boosted by a combination of increased fecundity and infection cycles under favourable microclimate within enlarged canopy. Changing geographic distribution will bring together diverse lineages/genotypes that do not share common ecological niche, potentially increasing pathogen diversity. However, the uncertainty of model predictions and a lack of synthesis of fragmented knowledge remain as major deficiencies in knowledge. The review contends that the failure to consider scale and human intervention through new technology are major sources of uncertainty. Recognizing that improved biophysical models alone will not reduce uncertainty, it proposes a generic framework to increase focus and outlines ways to integrate biophysical elements and technology change with human intervention scenarios to minimize uncertainty. To synthesize knowledge of pathogen biology and life history, the review borrows the concept of ‘fitness’ from population biology as a comprehensive measure of pathogen strengths and vulnerabilities, and explores the implications of pathogen mode of nutrition to fitness and its interactions with plants suffering chronic abiotic stress under climate change. Current and future disease management options can then be judged for their ability to impair pathogenic and saprophytic fitness. The review pinpoints improving confidence in model prediction by minimizing uncertainty, developing management strategies to reduce overall pathogen fitness, and finding new sources of data to trawl for climate signatures on pathogens as important challenges for future research.     

Evaluating the importance of within- and between-host selection pressures on the evolution of chronic pathogens

Infectious pathogens compete and are subject to natural selection at multiple levels. For example, viral strains compete for access to host resources within an infected host and, at the same time, compete for access to susceptible hosts within the host population. Here we propose a novel approach to study the interplay between within- and between-host competition. This approach allows for a single host to be infected by and transmit two strains of the same pathogen. We do this by nesting a model for the host–pathogen dynamics within each infected host into an epidemiological model. The nesting of models allows the between-host infectivity and mortality rates suffered by infected hosts to be functions of the disease progression at the within-host level. We present a general method for computing the basic reproduction ratio of a pathogen in such a model. We then illustrate our method using a basic model for the within-host dynamics of viral infections, embedded within the simplest susceptible–infected (SI) epidemiological model. Within this nested framework, we show that the virion production rate at the level of the cell–virus interaction leads, via within-host competition, to the presence or absence of between-host level competitive exclusion. In particular, we find that in the absence of mutation the strain that maximizes between-host fitness can outcompete all other strains. In the presence of mutation we observe a complex invasion landscape showing the possibility of coexistence. Although we emphasize the application to human viral diseases, we expect this methodology to be applicable to be many host–parasite systems.     

Coevolutionary cycling of host sociality and pathogen virulence in contact networks

Infectious diseases may place strong selection on the social organization of animals. Conversely, the structure of social systems can influence the evolutionary trajectories of pathogens. While much attention has focused on the evolution of host sociality or pathogen virulence separately, few studies have looked at their coevolution. Here we use an agent-based simulation to explore host-pathogen coevolution in social contact networks. Our results indicate that under certain conditions, both host sociality and pathogen virulence exhibit continuous cycling. The way pathogens move through the network (e.g., their interhost transmission and probability of superinfection) and the structure of the network can influence the existence and form of cycling.     

Evaluating the importance of within- and between-host selection pressures on the evolution of chronic pathogens

Infectious pathogens compete and are subject to natural selection at multiple levels. For example, viral strains compete for access to host resources within an infected host and, at the same time, compete for access to susceptible hosts within the host population. Here we propose a novel approach to study the interplay between within- and between-host competition. This approach allows for a single host to be infected by and transmit two strains of the same pathogen. We do this by nesting a model for the host-pathogen dynamics within each infected host into an epidemiological model. The nesting of models allows the between-host infectivity and mortality rates suffered by infected hosts to be functions of the disease progression at the within-host level. We present a general method for computing the basic reproduction ratio of a pathogen in such a model. We then illustrate our method using a basic model for the within-host dynamics of viral infections, embedded within the simplest susceptible-infected (SI) epidemiological model. Within this nested framework, we show that the virion production rate at the level of the cell-virus interaction leads, via within-host competition, to the presence or absence of between-host level competitive exclusion. In particular, we find that in the absence of mutation the strain that maximizes between-host fitness can outcompete all other strains. In the presence of mutation we observe a complex invasion landscape showing the possibility of coexistence. Although we emphasize the application to human viral diseases, we expect this methodology to be applicable to be many host-parasite systems.     

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host’s immune system influences the pathogen’s transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence–transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen–host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen \({\mathcal {R}}_0\), but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.     

Superinfections can induce evolutionarily stable coexistence of pathogens

Parasites reproduce and are subject to natural selection at several different, but intertwined, levels. In the recent paper, Gilchrist and Coombs (Theor. Popul. Biol. 69:145–153, 2006) relate the between-host transmission in the context of an SI model to the dynamics within a host. They demonstrate that within-host selection may lead to an outcome that differs from the outcome of selection at the host population level. In this paper we combine the two levels of reproduction by considering the possibility of superinfection and study the evolution of the pathogen’s within-host reproduction rate p. We introduce a superinfection function φ = φ(p,q), giving the probability with which pathogens with trait q, upon transmission to a host that is already infected by pathogens with trait p, “take over” the host. We consider three cases according to whether the function q → φ(p,q) (i) has a discontinuity, (ii) is continuous, but not differentiable, or (iii) is differentiable in q = p. We find that in case (i) the within-host selection dominates in the sense that the outcome of evolution at the host population level coincides with the outcome of evolution in a single infected host. In case (iii), it is the transmission to susceptible hosts that dominates the evolution to the extent that the singular strategies are the same as when the possibility of superinfections is ignored. In the biologically most relevant case (ii), both forms of reproduction contribute to the value of a singular trait. We show that when φ is derived from a branching process variant of the submodel for the within-host interaction of pathogens and target cells, the superinfection functions fall under case (ii). We furthermore demonstrate that the superinfection model allows for steady coexistence of pathogen traits at the host population level, both on the ecological, as well as on the evolutionary time scale.      

Pathogen relatedness affects the prevalence of within-host competition

Although the evolutionary consequences of within-host competition among pathogens have been examined extensively, there exists a critical gap in our understanding of factors determining the prevalence of multiple infections. Here we examine the effects of relatedness among strains of the anther-smut pathogen Microbotryum violaceum on the probability of multiple infection in its host, Silene latifolia, after sequential inoculations. We found a significantly higher probability of multiple infection when interacting strains were more closely related, suggesting mechanisms of competitive exclusion that are conditional on genotypic characteristics of the strains involved. Pathogen relatedness therefore determines the prevalence of multiple infection in addition to its outcome, with important consequences for our understanding of virulence evolution and pathogen population structure and diversity.     

Imperfect vaccines and the evolution of pathogens causing acute infections in vertebrates

A study by Gandon et al. (2001) considered the potential ways pathogens may evolve in response to vaccination with imperfect vaccines. In this paper, by focusing on acute infections of vertebrate hosts, we examine whether imperfect vaccines that do not completely block a pathogen's replication (antigrowth) or transmission (antitransmission) may lead to evolution of more or less virulent pathogen strains. To address this question, we use models of the within-host dynamics of the pathogen and the host's immune responses. One advantage of the use of this within-host approach is that vaccination can be easily incorporated in the models and the trade-offs between pathogen transmissibility, host recovery, and virulence that drive evolution of pathogens in these models can be easily estimated. We find that the use of either antigrowth or antitransmission vaccines leads to the evolution of pathogens with an increased within-host growth rate; infection of unvaccinated hosts with such evolved pathogens results in high host mortality and low pathogen transmission. Vaccination of only a fraction of hosts with antigrowth vaccines may prevent pathogens from evolving high virulence due to pathogen adaptation to unvaccinated hosts and thus protection of vaccinated hosts from pathogen-induced disease. In contrast, antitransmission vaccines may be beneficial only if they are effective enough to cause pathogen extinction. Our results suggest that particular mechanisms of action of vaccines and their efficacy are crucial in predicting longterm evolutionary consequences of the use of imperfect vaccines.     

Helminths as vectors of pathogens in vertebrate hosts: a theoretical approach

Pathogens frequently use vectors to facilitate transmission between hosts and, for vertebrate hosts, the vectors are typically ectoparasitic arthropods. However, other parasites that are intimately associated with their hosts may also be ideal candidate vectors; namely the parasitic helminths. Here, we present empirical evidence that helminth vectoring of pathogens occurs in a range of vertebrate systems by a variety of helminth taxa. Using a novel theoretical framework we explore the dynamics of helminth vectoring and determine which host-helminth-pathogen characteristics may favour the evolution of helminth vectoring. We use two theoretical models: the first is a population dynamic model amalgamated from standard macro- and microparasite models, which serves as a framework for investigation of within-host interactions between co-infecting pathogens and helminths. The second is an evolutionary model, which we use to predict the ecological conditions under which we would expect helminth vectoring to evolve. We show that, like arthropod vectors, helminth vectors increase pathogen fitness. However, unlike arthropod vectors, helminth vectoring increases the pathogenic impact on the host and may allow the evolution of high pathogen virulence. We show that concomitant infection of a host with a helminth and pathogen are not necessarily independent of one another, due to helminth vectoring of microparasites, with profound consequences for pathogen persistence and the impact of disease on the host population.     

Determinants of haemosporidian single- and co-infection risks in western palearctic birds

Understanding the drivers of infection risk helps us to detect the most at-risk species in a community and identify species whose intrinsic characteristics could act as potential reservoirs of pathogens. This knowledge is crucial if we are to predict the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases. To date, most studies have only focused on infections caused by a single parasite, leaving out co-infections. Yet, co-infections are of paramount importance in understanding the ecology and evolution of host-parasite interactions due to the wide range of effects they can have on host fitness and on the evolutionary trajectories of parasites. Here, we used a multinomial Bayesian phylogenetic modelling framework to explore the extent to which bird ecology and phylogeny impact the probability of being infected by one genus (hereafter single infection) or by multiple genera (hereafter co-infection) of haemosporidian parasites. We show that while nesting and migration behaviours influenced both the probability of being single- and co-infected, species position along the slow-fast life-history continuum and geographic range size were only pertinent in explaining variation in co-infection risk. We also found evidence for a phylogenetic conservatism regarding both single- and co-infections, indicating that phylogenetically related bird species tend to have similar infection patterns. This phylogenetic signal was four times stronger for co-infections than for single infections, suggesting that co-infections may act as a stronger selective pressure than single infections. Overall, our study underscores the combined influence of hosts’ evolutionary history and attributes in determining infection risk in avian host communities. These results also suggest that co-infection risk might be under stronger deterministic control than single infection risk, potentially paving the way toward a better understanding of the emergence and evolution of infectious diseases.