Extensive geographical mixing of 2009 human H1N1 influenza A virus in a single university community

Despite growing interest in the molecular epidemiology of influenza virus, the pattern of viral spread within individual communities remains poorly understood. To determine the phylogeography of influenza virus in a single population, we examined the spatial diffusion of H1N1/09 influenza A virus within the student body of the University of California, San Diego (UCSD), sampling for a 1-month period between October and November 2009. Despite the highly focused nature of our study, an analysis of complete viral genome sequences revealed between 24 and 33 independent introductions of H1N1/09 into the UCSD community, comprising much of the global genetic diversity in this virus. These data were also characterized by a relatively low level of on-campus transmission as well as extensive spatial mixing, such that there was little geographical clustering by either student residence or city ZIP code. Most notably, students experiencing illness on the same day and residing in the same dorm possessed phylogenetically distinct lineages. H1N1/09 influenza A virus is therefore characterized by a remarkable spatial fluidity, which is likely to impede community-based methods for its control, including class cancellations, quarantine, and chemoprophylaxis.     

Molecular character of influenza A/H1N1 2009: Implications for spread and control

The world is experiencing a pandemic of influenza that emerged in March 2009, due to a novel strain designated influenza A/H1N1 2009. This strain is closest in molecular sequence to swine influenza viruses, but differs from all previously known influenza by a minimum of 6.1%, and from prior “seasonal” H1N1 by 27.2%, giving it great potential for widespread human infection. While spread into India was delayed for two months by an aggressive interdiction program, since 1 August 2009 most cases in India have been indigenous. H1N1 2009 has differentially struck younger patients who are naïve susceptibles to its antigenic subtype, while sparing those >60 who have crossreactive antibody from prior experience with influenza decades ago and the 1977 “swine flu” vaccine distributed in the United States. It also appears to more severely affect pregnant women. It emanated from a single source in central Mexico, but its precise geographical and circumstantial origins, from either Eurasia or the Americas, remain uncertain. While currently a mild pandemic by the standard of past pandemics, the seriousness of H1N1 2009 especially among children should not be underestimated. There is potential for the virus, which continues to adapt to humans, to change over time into a more severe etiologic agent by any of several foreseeable mutations. Mass acceptance of the novel H1N1 2009 vaccine worldwide will be essential to its control. Having spread globally in a few months, affecting millions of people, it is likely to remain circulating in the human population for a decade or more.     

Predicting the epidemic sizes of influenza A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B: a statistical method

Background

The epidemic sizes of influenza A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B infections vary from year to year in the United States. We use publicly available US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) influenza surveillance data between 1997 and 2009 to study the temporal dynamics of influenza over this period.

Methods and Findings

Regional outpatient surveillance data on influenza-like illness (ILI) and virologic surveillance data were combined to define a weekly proxy for the incidence of each strain in the United States. All strains exhibited a negative association between their cumulative incidence proxy (CIP) for the whole season (from calendar week 40 of each year to calendar week 20 of the next year) and the CIP of the other two strains (the complementary CIP) from the start of the season up to calendar week 2 (or 3, 4, or 5) of the next year. We introduce a method to predict a particular strain''s CIP for the whole season by following the incidence of each strain from the start of the season until either the CIP of the chosen strain or its complementary CIP exceed certain thresholds. The method yielded accurate predictions, which generally occurred within a few weeks of the peak of incidence of the chosen strain, sometimes after that peak. For the largest seasons in the data, which were dominated by A/H3N2, prediction of A/H3N2 incidence always occurred at least several weeks in advance of the peak.

Conclusion

Early circulation of one influenza strain is associated with a reduced total incidence of the other strains, consistent with the presence of interference between subtypes. Routine ILI and virologic surveillance data can be combined using this new method to predict the relative size of each influenza strain''s epidemic by following the change in incidence of a given strain in the context of the incidence of cocirculating strains. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Receptor recognition mechanism of human influenza A H1N1 (1918), avian influenza A H5N1 (2004), and pandemic H1N1 (2009) neuraminidase

Influenza A neuraminidase (NA) is a target for anti-influenza drugs. The function of this enzyme is to cleave a glycosidic linkage of a host cell receptor that links sialic acid (Sia) to galactose (Gal), to allow the virus to leave an infected cell and propagate. The receptor is an oligosaccharide on the host cell surface. There are two types of oligosaccharide receptor; the first, which is found mainly on avian epithelial cell surfaces, links Sia with Gal by an α2,3 glycosidic linkage; in the second, found mainly on human epithelial cell surfaces, linkage is via an α2,6 linkage. Some researchers believe that NAs from different viruses show selectivity for each type of linkage, but there is limited information available to confirm this hypothesis. To see if the linkage type is more specific to any particular NA, a number of NA-receptor complexes of human influenza A H1N1 (1918), avian influenza A H5N1 (2004), and a pandemic strain of H1N1 (2009) were constructed using homology modeling and molecular dynamics simulation. The results show that the two types of receptor analogues bound to NAs use different mechanisms. Moreover, it was found that a residue unique to avian virus NA is responsible for the recognition of the Siaα2,3Gal receptor, and a residue unique to human virus NA is responsible for the recognition of Siaα2,6Gal. We believe that this finding could explain how NAs of different virus origins always possess some unique residues.     

甲型H1N1流感病毒裂解疫苗的免疫原性和安全性

目的评价甲型H1N1流感病毒裂解疫苗(简称甲型H1N1流感疫苗)的免疫原性和安全性。方法按照随机、双盲、安慰剂对照的原则,采用0、21天免疫程序,选择3岁及3岁以上健康者1 202人。分组为3~11岁、12~17岁、≥60岁组,按照人数基本为1∶1的比例随机分别接种7.5μg和15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗;18~59岁组按照人数基本为1∶1∶1的比例随机分别接种7.5μg、15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗和安慰剂对照。观察各组接种后的不良反应率以及免疫前后血凝抑制(HI)抗体阳转率、保护率、GMT水平和平均增长倍数。结果受试对象的安全性结果显示7.5μg和15.0μg组不良反应发生率分别为8.74%(48/549)和13.88%(74/533),其中Ⅱ级反应率分别为0.36%(2/549)和1.13%(6/533),未观察到Ⅲ级及以上不良反应和其他异常反应及严重不良事件。2剂接种未见不良反应叠加现象。7.5μg或15.0μg试验疫苗首剂免疫后,血清抗体阳性率分别为85.13%(395/464)和90.77%(413/455),保护率分别为85.56%(397/464)和91.43%(416/455),抗体GMT较免疫前分别增长36.1倍和52.6倍。2剂免疫后,血清抗体阳性率分别是97.84%(454/464)和99.12%(451/455),保护率分别是98.06%(455/464)和9 9.56%(453/455),抗体GMT较免疫前分别增长63.3倍和96.0倍。4个年龄组(3~11岁、12~17岁、18~59岁及≥60岁年龄组)7.5μg和15.0μg组HI抗体阳性率和保护率均大于70%,GMT较免疫前均增长2.5倍以上,结果显示7.5μg和15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗接种1剂后抗体水平已达到研究方案中设定的预期标准,免疫2剂后抗体阳性率和抗体水平明显提高。结论临床试验表明甲型H1N1流感疫苗具有良好的安全性和免疫原性,且接种1剂15.0μg甲型H1N1流感疫苗,即可在3岁和3岁以上人群中产生良好的免疫效果。     

Susceptibility of pandemic influenza virus A 2009 H1N1 and highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A H5N1 to antiinfluenza agents in cell culture

The data on cytotoxicity and antiviral activity of commercial antivirals, such as Remantadine, Oseltamivir, Arbidol and Ribavirin in the MDCK cell culture infected with highly pathogenic (H5N1) and pandemic 2009 (H1N1) influenza A viruses are presented. The study of the antiviral activity of antivirals in the MDCK cells culture demonstrated that Arbidol, Rimantadine and Ribavirin efficiently inhibited reproduction of the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses isolated from sick birds. Arbidol and Oseltamivir carboxylate selectively inhibited reproduction of the pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses with changed specificity to the cell receptors, causing severe influenza in men, while remantadine had no effect on their reproduction.     

新世纪流感大流行的思考

2009年从墨西哥开始暴发了一场席卷全世界的流感疫情．此次大流行的毒株,甲型H1N1病毒,包含了猪源、禽源和人源流感病毒的基因片段．研究该毒株的基因重配、进化历程及其生物学特性,将对防控此次流行具有重要意义．目前,该毒株的遗传进化关系已明确,通过遗传性状分析可获知该毒株可能的生物学性状,但流感大流行动向、毒株遗传变化、毒力及致病性变化仍在密切监控中．流感病毒生态系统具有复杂性,其基因组易突变、易重配、易在自然宿主保存,使得流感大流行存在一定的必然性．正视流感大流行的威胁,积极提高流感病毒在生态系统中的监控,加强流行病学调查,发展疫苗与药物,建立有效公共卫生保障体系,才能降低流感大流行的破坏性．     

Comparative analyses of pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H1N1, H3N2, and influenza B infections depict distinct clinical pictures in ferrets

Influenza A and B infections are a worldwide health concern to both humans and animals. High genetic evolution rates of the influenza virus allow the constant emergence of new strains and cause illness variation. Since human influenza infections are often complicated by secondary factors such as age and underlying medical conditions, strain or subtype specific clinical features are difficult to assess. Here we infected ferrets with 13 currently circulating influenza strains (including strains of pandemic 2009 H1N1 [H1N1pdm] and seasonal A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B viruses). The clinical parameters were measured daily for 14 days in stable environmental conditions to compare clinical characteristics. We found that H1N1pdm strains had a more severe physiological impact than all season strains where pandemic A/California/07/2009 was the most clinically pathogenic pandemic strain. The most serious illness among seasonal A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 groups was caused by A/Solomon Islands/03/2006 and A/Perth/16/2009, respectively. Among the 13 studied strains, B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 presented the mildest clinical symptoms. We have also discovered that disease severity (by clinical illness and histopathology) correlated with influenza specific antibody response but not viral replication in the upper respiratory tract. H1N1pdm induced the highest and most rapid antibody response followed by seasonal A/H3N2, seasonal A/H1N1 and seasonal influenza B (with B/Hubei-Wujiagang/158/2009 inducing the weakest response). Our study is the first to compare the clinical features of multiple circulating influenza strains in ferrets. These findings will help to characterize the clinical pictures of specific influenza strains as well as give insights into the development and administration of appropriate influenza therapeutics.     

Spreading patterns of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic

We investigate the dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1/S-OIV) pandemic by analyzing data obtained from World Health Organization containing the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infections--by country--in a period of 69 days, from 26 April to 3 July, 2009. Specifically, we find evidence of exponential growth in the total number of confirmed cases and linear growth in the number of countries with confirmed cases. We also find that, i) at early stages, the cumulative distribution of cases among countries exhibits linear behavior on log-log scale, being well approximated by a power law decay; ii) for larger times, the cumulative distribution presents a systematic curvature on log-log scale, indicating a gradual change to lognormal behavior. Finally, we compare these empirical findings with the predictions of a simple stochastic model. Our results could help to select more realistic models of the dynamics of influenza-type pandemics.     

Seroprevalence and severity of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 in Taiwan

Background

This study is to determine the seroprevalence of the pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus (pH1N1) in Taiwan before and after the 2009 pandemic, and to estimate the relative severity of pH1N1 infections among different age groups.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 1544 and 1558 random serum samples were collected from the general population in Taiwan in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Seropositivity was defined by a hemagglutination inhibition titer to pH1N1 (A/Taiwan/126/09) ≥1:40. The seropositivity rate of pH1N1 among the unvaccinated subjects and national surveillance data were used to compare the proportion of infections that led to severe diseases and fatalities among different age groups. The overall seroprevalence of pH1N1 was 0.91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–1.38) in 2007 and significantly increased to 29.9% (95% CI 27.6–32.2) in 2010 (p<0.0001), with the peak attack rate (55.4%) in 10–17 year-old adolescents, the lowest in elderly ≥65 years (14.1%). The overall attack rates were 20.6% (188/912) in unvaccinated subjects. Among the unvaccinated but infected populations, the estimated attack rates of severe cases per 100,000 infections were significantly higher in children aged 0–5 years (54.9 cases, odds ratio [OR] 4.23, 95% CI 3.04–5.90) and elderly ≥ 65years (22.4 cases, OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.99–3.83) compared to adolescents aged 10–17 years (13.0 cases). The overall case-fatality rate was 0.98 per 100,000 infections without a significant difference in different age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Pre-existing immunity against pH1N1 was rarely identified in Taiwanese at any age in 2007. Young children and elderly – the two most lower seroprotection groups showed the greatest vulnerability to clinical severity after the pH1N1 infections. These results imply that both age groups should have higher priority for immunization in the coming flu season.     

Characterization of neuraminidases from the highly pathogenic avian H5N1 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A viruses

To study the precise role of the neuraminidase (NA), and its stalk region in particular, in the assembly, release, and entry of influenza virus, we deleted the 20-aa stalk segment from 2009 pandemic H1N1 NA (09N1) and inserted this segment, now designated 09s60, into the stalk region of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 NA (AH N1). The biological characterization of these wild-type and mutant NAs was analyzed by pseudotyped particles (pseudoparticles) system. Compared with the wild-type AH N1, the wild-type 09N1 exhibited higher NA activity and released more pseudoparticles. Deletion/insertion of the 09s60 segment did not alter this relationship. The infectivity of pseudoparticles harboring NA in combination with the hemagglutinin from HPAI H5N1 (AH H5) was decreased by insertion of 09s60 into AH N1 and was increased by deletion of 09s60 from 09N1. When isolated from the wild-type 2009H1N1 virus, 09N1 existed in the forms (in order of abundance) dimer>tetramer>monomer, but when isolated from pseudoparticles, 09N1 existed in the forms dimer>monomer>tetramer. After deletion of 09s60, 09N1 existed in the forms monomer>dimer. AH N1 from pseudoparticles existed in the forms monomer>dimer, but after insertion of 09s60, it existed in the forms dimer>monomer. Deletion/insertion of 09s60 did not alter the NA glycosylation pattern of 09N1 or AH N1. The 09N1 was more sensitive than the AH N1 to the NA inhibitor oseltamivir, suggesting that the infectivity-enhancing effect of oseltamivir correlates with robust NA activity.     

H5N1 avian influenza in China

H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus was first detected in a goose in Guangdong Province of China in 1996. Multiple genotypes of H5N1 viruses have been identified from apparently healthy waterfowl since 1999. In the years 2004–2008, over 100 outbreaks in domestic poultry occurred in 23 provinces and caused severe economic damage to the poultry industry in China. Beginning from 2004, a culling plus vaccination strategy has been implemented for the control of epidemics. Since then, over 35420000 poultry have been depopulated, and over 55 billion doses of the different vaccines have been used to control the outbreaks. Although it is logistically impossible to vaccinate every single bird in China due to the large poultry population and the complicated rearing styles, there is no doubt that the increased vaccination coverage has resulted in decreased disease epidemic and environmental virus loading. The experience in China suggests that vaccination has played an important role in the protection of poultry from H5N1 virus infection, the reduction of virus load in the environment, and the prevention of H5N1 virus transmission from poultry to humans. Supported by the Key Animal Infectious Disease Control Program of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Chinese National S&T Plan(Grant No. 2004BA519A-57), National Key Basic Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos: 2005CB523005, 2005CB523200).     

Transmission of aerosolized seasonal H1N1 influenza A to ferrets

Influenza virus is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, yet little quantitative understanding of transmission is available to guide evidence-based public health practice. Recent studies of influenza non-contact transmission between ferrets and guinea pigs have provided insights into the relative transmission efficiencies of pandemic and seasonal strains, but the infecting dose and subsequent contagion has not been quantified for most strains. In order to measure the aerosol infectious dose for 50% (aID₅₀) of seronegative ferrets, seasonal influenza virus was nebulized into an exposure chamber with controlled airflow limiting inhalation to airborne particles less than 5 µm diameter. Airborne virus was collected by liquid impinger and Teflon filters during nebulization of varying doses of aerosolized virus. Since culturable virus was accurately captured on filters only up to 20 minutes, airborne viral RNA collected during 1-hour exposures was quantified by two assays, a high-throughput RT-PCR/mass spectrometry assay detecting 6 genome segments (Ibis T5000™ Biosensor system) and a standard real time RT-qPCR assay. Using the more sensitive T5000 assay, the aID₅₀ for A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1) was approximately 4 infectious virus particles under the exposure conditions used. Although seroconversion and sustained levels of viral RNA in upper airway secretions suggested established mucosal infection, viral cultures were almost always negative. Thus after inhalation, this seasonal H1N1 virus may replicate less efficiently than H3N2 virus after mucosal deposition and exhibit less contagion after aerosol exposure.     

Phylogenetic analysis of pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus

The principle of the present study was to determine the evolution of pandemic novel influenza A/H1N1 2009 virus (NIV) by phylogenetic, comparative and statistical analyses. The phylogenetic trees of eight genomic segments illustrate that, so far, the sequences of the NIVs (outbreak group A) are relatively homogeneous and derived by the event of multiple genetic reassortment of Eurasian and North American swine, avian and human viruses (group B). It implies that some of the influenza viruses in group B had higher potential to evolve and getting the ability to transmit from human-to-human after animal-to-human cross-species transmission. The second analysis shows that NIV had attempted a little evolutionary change among humans and before introduction into human it had long evolutionary history. Statistical analysis shows that viruses from both outbreak and nearest group have homologous genes in their genomes which might be reflecting the phylogenetic relationship of strains, and also the presence of unique mutations between groups A-B may associate with increased virulence of NIVs. Both phylogenetic and cluster analyses confirm that the gene exchange takes place between viruses originated from different species and it could be generated NIV with unpredictable pandemic potential. Hence, we conclude that an extensive study should be made to recognize, which reassortment groups are closely related to NIVs, and to determine the sites in the genes of NIV under greatest or least selection pressure, which will ultimately be important in the effective design of vaccine and drugs for ‘swine flu’.     

A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒致病性评估及与2009 A/H1N1亚型流感病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性

目的探讨人、禽流感病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性,为下一步研究H6亚型禽流感病毒重配和致病性变异的分子机制奠定基础。方法野鸭源A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒A/Mallard/SanJiang/275/2007以101EID50～106EID50的攻毒剂量经鼻内途径感染小鼠,通过临床症状观察、病毒滴定和病理切片观察进行病毒学和组织学两方面检测对小鼠的致病性;同时,将此病毒与2009年A/H1N1流感病毒A/Changchun/01/2009(H1N1)混合感染豚鼠,分析两株病毒在哺乳动物体内的遗传兼容性。每天采集豚鼠鼻洗液并用噬斑纯化技术获得重配病毒,对获得的重配病毒进行全基因组序列的测定。结果 H6N1亚型禽流感病毒能直接感染小鼠,但对小鼠不致死。106EID50的攻毒剂量可有效感染小鼠,攻毒后第5天,小鼠表现出被毛较粗乱、活动减少、体重下降、呼吸急促的临床症状,但至攻毒后第10天开始康复,而对照组(MOCK)小鼠在14 d的观察期内无明显临床症状。病毒滴定结果表明,该病毒主要在小鼠肺脏和鼻甲骨中复制,病毒滴度可达104.5EID50/mL。病理学观察发现感染小鼠肺泡壁增厚,有大量炎性细胞浸润,纤维蛋白渗出并伴有轻微出血;在A/H6N1和A/H1N1混合感染豚鼠的重配实验中,经过三轮噬斑纯化从豚鼠鼻洗液中分离到6株重配病毒,说明A/H6N1亚型禽流感病毒与A/H1N1亚型流感病毒具有很好的遗传兼容性,能在豚鼠体内能发生重配。结论野鸭源A/H6N1亚型流感病毒无需适应就能够感染哺乳动物;该病毒与A/H1N1流感病毒具有很好的遗传兼容性,在哺乳动物体内能够发生基因重配,产生新的重配病毒,其公共卫生意义应引起高度关注。     

Avian influenza H5N1 transmission in households, Indonesia

Background

Disease transmission patterns are needed to inform public health interventions, but remain largely unknown for avian influenza H5N1 virus infections. A recent study on the 139 outbreaks detected in Indonesia between 2005 and 2009 found that the type of exposure to sources of H5N1 virus for both the index case and their household members impacted the risk of additional cases in the household. This study describes the disease transmission patterns in those outbreak households.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared cases (n = 177) and contacts (n = 496) in the 113 sporadic and 26 cluster outbreaks detected between July 2005 and July 2009 to estimate attack rates and disease intervals. We used final size household models to fit transmission parameters to data on household size, cases and blood-related household contacts to assess the relative contribution of zoonotic and human-to-human transmission of the virus, as well as the reproduction number for human virus transmission. The overall household attack rate was 18.3% and secondary attack rate was 5.5%. Secondary attack rate remained stable as household size increased. The mean interval between onset of subsequent cases in outbreaks was 5.6 days. The transmission model found that human transmission was very rare, with a reproduction number between 0.1 and 0.25, and the upper confidence bounds below 0.4. Transmission model fit was best when the denominator population was restricted to blood-related household contacts of index cases.

Conclusions/Significance

The study only found strong support for human transmission of the virus when a single large cluster was included in the transmission model. The reproduction number was well below the threshold for sustained transmission. This study provides baseline information on the transmission dynamics for the current zoonotic virus and can be used to detect and define signatures of a virus with increasing capacity for human-to-human transmission.