Phenotypic selection in natural populations: what limits directional selection?

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.     

Testing for conflicting and nonadditive selection: floral adaptation to multiple pollinators through male and female fitness

Although conflicting selection from different resources is thought to play a critical role in the evolution of specialized species, the prevalence of conflicting selection in generalists is poorly understood. Plants may experience conflicting selection on floral traits by different pollinators and between genders. Using artificial selection to increase phenotypic variation, we tested for conflicting and nonadditive selection on wild radish (Raphanus raphanistrum) flowers. To do this, we measured selection by each of the major pollinator taxa through both male and female fitness, and tested for a single-generation response to selection by a subset of these pollinators. We found some evidence for conflicting selection on anther exertion--sweat bees exerted stabilizing selection and larger bees selected for increased exertion. Stamen dimorphism was only under selection by honey bees, causing a response to selection in the next generation, and flower size was under similar selection by multiple pollinators. Selection differed significantly between genders for two traits, but there was no evidence for stronger selection through male fitness or for conflicting selection between genders. Our results suggest wild radish flowers can adapt to multiple pollinators, as we found little evidence for conflicting selection and no evidence for nonadditive selection among pollinators.     

The strength of phenotypic selection in natural populations

How strong is phenotypic selection on quantitative traits in the wild? We reviewed the literature from 1984 through 1997 for studies that estimated the strength of linear and quadratic selection in terms of standardized selection gradients or differentials on natural variation in quantitative traits for field populations. We tabulated 63 published studies of 62 species that reported over 2,500 estimates of linear or quadratic selection. More than 80% of the estimates were for morphological traits; there is very little data for behavioral or physiological traits. Most published selection studies were unreplicated and had sample sizes below 135 individuals, resulting in low statistical power to detect selection of the magnitude typically reported for natural populations. The absolute values of linear selection gradients |beta| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of 0.16, suggesting that strong directional selection was uncommon. The values of |beta| for selection on morphological and on life-history/phenological traits were significantly different: on average, selection on morphology was stronger than selection on phenology/life history. Similarly, the values of |beta| for selection via aspects of survival, fecundity, and mating success were significantly different: on average, selection on mating success was stronger than on survival. Comparisons of estimated linear selection gradients and differentials suggest that indirect components of phenotypic selection were usually modest relative to direct components. The absolute values of quadratic selection gradients |gamma| were exponentially distributed with an overall median of only 0.10, suggesting that quadratic selection is typically quite weak. The distribution of gamma values was symmetric about 0, providing no evidence that stabilizing selection is stronger or more common than disruptive selection in nature.     

Using path analysis to measure natural selection

We expand current methods for calculating selection coefficients using path analysis and demonstrate how to analyse nonlinear selection. While this incorporation is a straightforward extension of current procedures, the rules for combining these traits to calculate selection coefficients can be complex. We demonstrate our method with an analysis of selection in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana consisting of 289 individuals. Multiple regression analyses found positive directional selection and positive nonlinear selection only for inflorescence height. In contrast, the path analyses also revealed positive directional selection for number of rosette leaves and positive nonlinear selection for leaf number and time of inflorescence initiation. These changes in conclusions came about because indirect selection was converted into direct selection with the change in causal structure. Path analysis has great promise for improving our understanding of natural selection but must be used with caution since coefficient estimates depend on the assumed causal structure.     

An analysis of continent-wide patterns of sexual selection in a passerine bird

Patterns of selection are widely believed to differ geographically, causing adaptation to local environmental conditions. However, few studies have investigated patterns of phenotypic selection across large spatial scales. We quantified the intensity of selection on morphology in a monogamous passerine bird, the barn swallow Hirundo rustica, using 6495 adults from 22 populations distributed across Europe and North Africa. According to the classical Darwin-Fisher mechanism of sexual selection in monogamous species, two important components of fitness due to sexual selection are the advantages that the most attractive males acquire by starting to breed early and their high annual fecundity. We estimated directional selection differentials on tail length (a secondary sexual character) and directional selection gradients after controlling for correlated selection on wing length and tarsus length with respect to these two fitness components. Phenotype and fitness components differed significantly among populations for which estimates were available for more than a single year. Likewise, selection differentials and selection gradients differed significantly among populations for tail length, but not for the other two characters. Sexual selection differentials differed significantly from zero across populations for tail length, particularly in males. Controlling statistically for the effects of age reduced the intensity of selection by 60 to 81%, although corrected and uncorrected estimates were strongly positively correlated. Selection differentials and gradients for tail length were positively correlated between the sexes among populations for selection acting on breeding date, but not for fecundity selection. The intensity of selection with respect to breeding date and fecundity were significantly correlated for tail length across populations. Sexual size dimorphism in tail length was significantly correlated with selection differentials with respect to breeding date for tail length in male barn swallows across populations. These findings suggest that patterns of sexual selection are consistent across large geographical scales, but also that they vary among populations. In addition, geographical patterns of phenotypic selection predict current patterns of phenotypic variation among populations, suggesting that consistent patterns of selection have been present for considerable amounts of time.     

Synthetic analyses of phenotypic selection in natural populations: lessons, limitations and future directions

There are now thousands of estimates of phenotypic selection in natural populations, resulting in multiple synthetic reviews of these data. Here we consider several major lessons and limitations emerging from these syntheses, and how they may guide future studies of selection in the wild. First, we review past analyses of the patterns of directional selection. We present new meta-analyses that confirm differences in the direction and magnitude of selection for different types of traits and fitness components. Second, we describe patterns of temporal and spatial variation in directional selection, and their implications for cumulative selection and directional evolution. Meta-analyses suggest that sampling error contributes importantly to observed temporal variation in selection, and indicate that evidence for frequent temporal changes in the direction of selection in natural populations is limited. Third, we review the apparent lack of evidence for widespread stabilizing selection, and discuss biological and methodological explanations for this pattern. Finally, we describe how sampling error, statistical biases, choice of traits, fitness measures and selection metrics, environmental covariance and other factors may limit the inferences we can draw from analyses of selection coefficients. Current standardized selection metrics based on simple parametric statistical models may be inadequate for understanding patterns of non-linear selection and complex fitness surfaces. We highlight three promising areas for expanding our understanding of selection in the wild: (1) field studies of stabilizing selection, selection on physiological and behavioral traits, and the ecological causes of selection; (2) new statistical models and methods that connect phenotypic variation to population demography and selection; and (3) availability of the underlying individual-level data sets from past and future selection studies, which will allow comprehensive modeling of selection and fitness variation within and across systems, rather than meta-analyses of standardized selection metrics.     

MULTI‐LEVEL SEXUAL SELECTION: INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY‐LEVEL SELECTION FOR MATING SUCCESS IN A HISTORICAL HUMAN POPULATION

Precopulatory sexual selection is the association between fitness and traits associated with mate acquisition. Although sexual selection is generally recognized to be a powerful evolutionary force, most investigations are limited to characters belonging to individuals. A broader multilevel perspective acknowledges that individual fitness can be affected by aspects of mating success that are characters of groups, such as families. Parental mating success in polygynous or polyandrous human societies may exemplify traits under group‐level sexual selection. Using fitness measures that account for age‐structure, I measure multilevel selection for mate number over 55 years in a human population with declining rates of polygyny. Sexual selection had three components: individual‐level selection for ever‐mating (whether an individual mated) and individual‐ and family‐level selection for polyandry and polygyny. Family‐ and individual‐level selection for polygyny was equally strong, three times stronger than family‐level selection for polyandry and more than an order of magnitude stronger than individual‐level selection for polyandry. However, individual‐level selection for polyandry and polygyny was more effective at explaining relative fitness variance than family‐level selection. Selection for ever‐mating was the most important source of sexual selection for fitness; variation for ever‐mating explained 23% of relative fitness variance.     

COMPARING STRENGTHS OF DIRECTIONAL SELECTION: HOW STRONG IS STRONG?

The fundamental equation in evolutionary quantitative genetics, the Lande equation, describes the response to directional selection as a product of the additive genetic variance and the selection gradient of trait value on relative fitness. Comparisons of both genetic variances and selection gradients across traits or populations require standardization, as both are scale dependent. The Lande equation can be standardized in two ways. Standardizing by the variance of the selected trait yields the response in units of standard deviation as the product of the heritability and the variance-standardized selection gradient. This standardization conflates selection and variation because the phenotypic variance is a function of the genetic variance. Alternatively, one can standardize the Lande equation using the trait mean, yielding the proportional response to selection as the product of the squared coefficient of additive genetic variance and the mean-standardized selection gradient. Mean-standardized selection gradients are particularly useful for summarizing the strength of selection because the mean-standardized gradient for fitness itself is one, a convenient benchmark for strong selection. We review published estimates of directional selection in natural populations using mean-standardized selection gradients. Only 38 published studies provided all the necessary information for calculation of mean-standardized gradients. The median absolute value of multivariate mean-standardized gradients shows that selection is on average 54% as strong as selection on fitness. Correcting for the upward bias introduced by taking absolute values lowers the median to 31%, still very strong selection. Such large estimates clearly cannot be representative of selection on all traits. Some possible sources of overestimation of the strength of selection include confounding environmental and genotypic effects on fitness, the use of fitness components as proxies for fitness, and biases in publication or choice of traits to study.     

Effects of selfing on selection for recombination

This paper describes the results of computer simulations of selection on a locus which affects the rate of recombination between a pair of loci under selection. Four different models of selection for increased recombination were examined. In our first two models, which involve hitchhiking effects, increased levels of selfing can lead to increased selection for recombination, but need not always do so. With two models of selection for recombination caused by fluctuations in the environment, increased selfing always led to increased selection for recombination. Constant-environment models with nonadditive fitnesses at the two selected loci were also studied. Selfing increased selection for modifiers decreasing recombination, compared with random-mating populations in which indeed there might be no selection for decreased recombination. At high levels of selfing, the intensity of selection against recombination was sometimes found to weaken again.     

Artificial selection for 18-day pupa weight and opposing simulated naturel selection in Tribolium castaneum

Summary The effect of simulated opposing natural selection on the response to mass selection for 18-day pupa weight of Tribolium castaneum was studied for 10 generations of selection. Natural selection was simulated in replicated treatment lines by imposing a negative relationship between mid-parent genetic value for pupa weight and fertility. Responses to selection and realized heritabilities were smaller (P < 0.05 and P < 0.10, respectively) for the treatment lines than for control lines under selection for pupa weight only. One treatment, line E3G1, reached an intermediate selection plateau by generation 10, and responded linearly to 4 generations of artificial selection after natural selection had been discontinued. Possible explanations for the different behaviors of the replicate lines E3G1 and E3G2 were also discussed.     

Efficiency of indirect selection at selection equilibrium

Summary Efficiency of indirect selection compared with that of direct selection to increase the mean value of some trait has been usually studied by considering a single generation of indirect and direct responses to selection only. However, under continued selection, genetic variances and covariances, and therefore expected genetic responses, change each generation due to linkage disequilibrium. With directional and truncation selection, genetic parameters asymptote to limiting values after several generations. The efficiency of indirect selection is examined in this limiting situation. The ratio of correlated response to direct response for the trait to improve in the limit is compared with the ratio after the first generation of selection. For all initial parameter values for which indirect selection is more efficient than direct selection, relative efficiency of indirect selection is smaller in the limit than in the first generation. For some parameter values, indirect selection is more efficient than direct selection in the first generation, but less efficient in the limit. Expressions for minimum values of the initial genetic correlation and heritability of the alternative trait required for indirect selection to be preferred in the limit are derived. These values are higher when limiting responses are used instead of single generation responses. The loss in relative efficiency of indirect selection from changes in genetic parameters due to selection should be taken into account when applications of indirect selection are considered.     

Nematode–bacteria mutualism: Selection within the mutualism supersedes selection outside of the mutualism

The coevolution of interacting species can lead to codependent mutualists. Little is known about the effect of selection on partners within verses apart from the association. Here, we determined the effect of selection on bacteria (Xenorhabdus nematophila) both within and apart from its mutualistic partner (a nematode, Steinernema carpocapsae). In nature, the two species cooperatively infect and kill arthropods. We passaged the bacteria either together with (M+), or isolated from (M?), nematodes under two different selection regimes: random selection (S?) and selection for increased virulence against arthropod hosts (S+). We found that the isolated bacteria evolved greater virulence under selection for greater virulence (M?S+) than under random selection (M?S?). In addition, the response to selection in the isolated bacteria (M?S+) caused a breakdown of the mutualism following reintroduction to the nematode. Finally, selection for greater virulence did not alter the evolutionary trajectories of bacteria passaged within the mutualism (M+S+ = M+S?), indicating that selection for the maintenance of the mutualism was stronger than selection for increased virulence. The results show that selection on isolated mutualists can rapidly breakdown beneficial interactions between species, but that selection within a mutualism can supersede external selection, potentially generating codependence over time.     

Optimal selection on two quantitative trait loci with linkage

A mathematical approach to optimize selection on multiple quantitative trait loci (QTL) and an estimate of residual polygenic effects was applied to selection on two linked or unlinked additive QTL. Strategies to maximize total or cumulative discounted response over ten generations were compared to standard QTL selection on the sum of breeding values for the QTL and an estimated breeding value for polygenes, and to phenotypic selection. Optimal selection resulted in greater response to selection than standard QTL or phenotypic selection. Tight linkage between the QTL (recombination rate 0.05) resulted in a slightly lower response for standard QTL and phenotypic selection but in a greater response for optimal selection. Optimal selection capitalized on linkage by emphasizing selection on favorable haplotypes. When the objective was to maximize total response after ten generations and QTL were unlinked, optimal selection increased QTL frequencies to fixation in a near linear manner. When starting frequencies were equal for the two QTL, equal emphasis was given to each QTL, regardless of the difference in effects of the QTL and regardless of the linkage, but the emphasis given to each of the two QTL was not additive. These results demonstrate the ability of optimal selection to capitalize on information on the complex genetic basis of quantitative traits that is forthcoming.     

Selection on recombination in clines

Computer runs have been done to examine Slatkin's (1975) model for selection on recombination rates in linear sets of populations with environmental changes affecting two loci. In order to determine whether the suggested selection pressures on recombination do, in fact, exist, we follow the changes in frequency at a third locus that is polymorphic for alleles affecting the recombination rate between the two selected loci. With haploid or diploid selection models, there can be selection for increased recombination if the parameter values are chosen suitably, but changes in parameter values often lead to changes in the direction of selection, so that decreased recombination is favored. The selection for increased recombination is usually weak, while that for decreased recombination is frequently much stronger. Weaker selection on the selected loci often leads to increasing selection for decreased recombination.     

Comparison of selection methods for optimizing genetic gain and gene diversity in a red pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus resinosa</Emphasis> Ait.) seedling seed orchard

Four selection methods, individual selection (IS), family selection (FS), family plus within-family selection (FWFS) and combined selection (CS), were used to estimate genetic gain [E(g)] for stem volume and gene diversity (GD) for ten theoretical selection intensities in a 108-family, 12-year-old red pine seedling seed orchard. Estimated genetic gain for stem volume ranged from 4.6% to 11.8% across all selection methods and intensities with CS consistently having the highest gains and FS the lowest for any given selection intensity. Genetic diversity ranged from 0.9797 to 0.9954 across all selection methods and intensities. Individual selection was the best selection method for retaining GD, especially at the higher selection intensities, while FWFS was more efficient at the lowest selection intensity. An optimization point, which maximized E(g) and GD relative to each other, was calculated for each selection method. In all cases the optimization point indicated that both E(g) and GD would be favorably high when optimized relative to each other. The implications for volume gain, genetic diversity and potential inbreeding in red pine, a species with inherently low levels of genetic variation, are discussed.Communicated by D.B. Neale     

Sex differences in survival selection in the serin,Serinus serinus

Natural selection is demonstrated in most natural populations which suggests that populations are dispatched from their adaptive peaks as a result of selection on correlated characters, or conflicting selection between the sexes. We analysed patterns of survival selection in a population of serins (Serinus serinus) outside Barcelona over a period of 13 years. There was directional selection for increased wing length in males and females accompanied by strong disruptive selection on both tail and wing length in males and a selection against a positive correlation between the two characters in males. In females there was directional selection for increased bill width but decreased bill depth, which should be contrasted to the stabilizing selection acting on bill depth in males. There were conflicting selection on the characters within a sex and conflicting selection of the same characters between sexes, which constrain the rate of access to the nearest adaptive peak.     

The evolution of sexual size dimorphism in the house finch. II. Population divergence in relation to local selection

Recent colonization of ecologically distinct areas in North America by the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) was accompanied by strong population divergence in sexual size dimorphism. Here we examined whether this divergence was produced by population differences in local selection pressures acting on each sex. In a long-term study of recently established populations in Alabama, Michigan, and Montana, we examined three selection episodes for each sex: selection for pairing success, overwinter survival, and within-season fecundity. Populations varied in intensity of these selection episodes, the contribution of each episode to the net selection, and in the targets of selection. Direction and intensity of selection strongly differed between sexes, and different selection episodes often favored opposite changes in morphological traits. In each population, current net selection for sexual dimorphism was highly concordant with observed sexual dimorphism--in each population, selection for dimorphism was the strongest on the most dimorphic traits. Strong directional selection on sexually dimorphic traits, and similar intensities of selection in both sexes, suggest that in each of the recently established populations, both males and females are far from their local fitness optimum, and that sexual dimorphism has arisen from adaptive responses in both sexes. Population differences in patterns of selection on dimorphism, combined with both low levels of ontogenetic integration in heritable sexually dimorphic traits and sexual dimorphism in growth patterns, may account for the close correspondence between dimorphism in selection and observed dimorphism in morphology across house finch populations.     

Sexual selection fails to promote adaptation to a new environment

Selection can be divided into sexual and nonsexual components. Some work finds that a component of sexual selection, adaptive female selection for good genes, can promote nonsexual fitness. Less studied is the benefit from sexual selection in toto, that is, when intra- and intersexual selection are both present and able to affect females directly and indirectly. Here an upper bound for the net benefit of sexual selection is estimated for Drosophila melanogaster. Replicate populations were allowed to adapt to low-grade thermal stress, with or with out the operation of sexual selection. Because proteins and lipids are highly sensitive to temperature, low-grade thermal stress will select broadly across the genome for alternative alleles. Such broad, directional selection for thermal tolerance should increase the measurable benefits of sexual selection far beyond that available under stabilizing selection. Sexual selection was removed by enforced monogamy without mate choice and retained by enforced polyandry (four males per female). After 36 generations of thermal stress exposure, there was substantial adaptation to the new environment (the net reproductive rate increased six standard deviations relative to thermal controls). However, sexual selection did not affect the rate of adaptation. Therefore, adaptive female selection for thermal tolerance either was insignificant or negated by other aspects of sexual selection, for example, male-induced female harm, which has been shown to diminish under monogamy. This experiment employed two parameters that reduced the opportunity for divergence in such harm: a truncated intersexual interaction period and strong directional selection for thermal tolerance. No divergence in male-induced harm was observed.     

Selection for cheating across disparate environments in the legume‐rhizobium mutualism

The primary dilemma in evolutionarily stable mutualisms is that natural selection for cheating could overwhelm selection for cooperation. Cheating need not entail parasitism; selection favours cheating as a quantitative trait whenever less‐cooperative partners are more fit than more‐cooperative partners. Mutualisms might be stabilised by mechanisms that direct benefits to more‐cooperative individuals, which counter selection for cheating; however, empirical evidence that natural selection favours cheating in mutualisms is sparse. We measured selection on cheating in single‐partner pairings of wild legume and rhizobium lineages, which prevented legume choice. Across contrasting environments, selection consistently favoured cheating by rhizobia, but did not favour legumes that provided less benefit to rhizobium partners. This is the first simultaneous measurement of selection on cheating across both host and symbiont lineages from a natural population. We empirically confirm selection for cheating as a source of antagonistic coevolutionary pressure in mutualism and a biological dilemma for models of cooperation.     

Index versus tandem selection after repeated generations of selection

Summary A theoretical comparison between two multiple-trait selection methods, index and tandem selection, after several generations of selection was carried out. An infinite number of loci determining the traits, directional and truncation selection, discrete generations and infinite population size were assumed. Under these assumptions, changes in genetic parameters over generations are due to linkage disequilibrium generated by selection. Changes continue for several generations until equilibrium is approached. Algebraic expressions for asymptotic responses from index selection can be derived if index weights are maintained constant across generations. Expressions at equilibrium for genetic parameters and responses are given for the index and its component traits. The loss in response by using initial index weights throughout all generations, instead of updating them to account for changes in genetic parameters, was analyzed. The benefit of using optimum weights was very small ranging from 0% to about 1.5% for all cases studied. Recurrence formulae to predict genetic parameters and responses at each generation of selection are given for both index and tandem selection. A comparison between expected response in the aggregate genotype at equilibrium from index and tandem selection is made considering two traits of economic importance. The results indicate that although index selection is more efficient for improving the aggregate breeding value, its relative efficiency with respect to tandem selection decreases after repeated cycles of selection. The reduction in relative efficiency is highest with the highest selection intensity and heritabilities and with negative correlations between the two traits. The advantage of index over tandem selection might be further reduced if changes in genetic parameters due to gene frequency changes produced by selection, random fluctuations due to the finite size of the population, and errors in estimation of parameters, were also considered.