Demographic components of seasonality of pregnancy

Previous studies of the seasonality of pregnancy and birth have typically been based on monthly numbers or proportions of pregnancies or births (i.e. their distribution throughout the year) without any explicit accounting of the size of the population actually at risk of pregnancy by month. From data on monthly populations at risk and monthly probabilities of pregnancy this paper determines the relative contribution of each component to the monthly distribution of pregnancies. The data come from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III. While there is some seasonality in the size of the at-risk population, it contributes little to the overall monthly variation of pregnancy, which is determined mainly by seasonality of pregnancy probability (fecundability).     

SEASONALITY OF PNEUMONIA ADMISSIONS AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH CLIMATE: AN EIGHT-YEAR NATIONWIDE POPULATION-BASED STUDY

The aim of the study was to examine seasonal variability in monthly admissions for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in Taiwan. Our study sample comprised 477,541 pneumonia patients in Taiwan between 1998 and 2005, inclusive. Results showed a fairly consistent seasonal pattern of pneumonia admissions, regardless of sex and age, and for the groups combined. Seasonal trends showed a peak in hospitalizations from January through April, followed by a sharp decrease in May and a trough from August through October. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) test found significant seasonality for all age and sex groups and for the whole sample (all p?<?0.001). After adjusting for seasonality, month, and trends, the ARIMA regression models revealed that the monthly pneumonia admissions rate was significantly associated with ambient temperature, for the total sample, for female groups, and for the 65–74 and?≥75 age groups (all p?<?0.01). A 1°C decrease in ambient temperature was associated with roughly a 0.03 increase in monthly pneumonia admissions rate (per 10,000 people) for the entire sample. We conclude the monthly pneumonia admissions rate was significantly associated with seasonality, and was higher in periods with low ambient temperatures. (Author correspondence: henry11111@tmu.edu.tw)     

Analysis of seasonal variation of birth defects in Atlanta

BACKGROUND: Compared with analyses of temporal trends, analyses of seasonal variations in the prevalence of birth defects have been more limited and have provided less consistent information. Possible reasons for this lack of consistency in findings include differences in populations, underlying factors, seasons or climates, and methods of ascertainment and analysis between studies. This study examines possible seasonal variation in the prevalence of selected birth defects in a defined study population using graphical displays and three statistical methods. METHODS: Cases were infants and fetal deaths in nine birth defect groups born to residents of mothers in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta during the period of 1978-2001 and ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. These birth defect groups were anencephaly, spina bifida, total neural tube defects, cleft palate, cleft lip with or without cleft palate, anomalies of the pulmonary valve, anomalies of the aortic valve, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, and congenital dislocation of the hip. We pooled monthly case counts and calculated monthly rates for each of these birth defect groups for five different birth periods: 1978-2001, 1978-1989, 1990-2001, 1990-1994, and 1995-2001. We applied the Cochran-Armitage test for trend to rule out homogeneity in pooled monthly rates. Data for each defect group were examined for possible seasonal (i.e., cyclical) variation overall and within the cited birth periods using the Hewitt-Rogerson test and the Walter-Elwood test. RESULTS: Graphical analyses of the pooled monthly rates showed no apparent seasonal patterns for any of the nine defect groups examined. Statistical tests for seasonality suggested possible seasonality for three defect groups: the Hewitt-Rogerson test was statistically significant for anencephaly (peak March-August, p = 0.048),while the Walter-Elwood test was significant for anomalies of the pulmonary valve (peak September, p = 0.02), and anomalies of the aortic valve (peak July, p = 0.039). With both methods, the results appeared to be influenced by the choice of time (i.e., birth) period. Results for anomalies of the pulmonary valve were statistically significant and more consistent with all tests in most of the time periods examined. CONCLUSIONS: Graphical analyses and basic statistical tests for seasonality showed no consistent evidence of seasonality for any of the nine defect groups examined, except for anomalies of the pulmonary valve. The two basic statistical methods coupled by a trend test for exploring seasonal patterns of the prevalence of birth defects can be useful for preliminary analyses of possible seasonal patterns. However, these methods have some limitations: (1) an assumption of no strong temporal trend over the study years, and (2) the results can vary by time period chosen. For specific hypotheses regarding seasonality, a more robust analytical approach such as time-series analysis might be more appropriate.     

Birth seasonally among peasant cultivators: The interrelationship of workload,diet, and fertility

The monthly distribution of live births was analyzed over a 51-year period, 1926–1976, for a rural Taiwan fishing community. Unlike previous studies of birth seasonality, monthly distributions of births did not deviate from what would be expected by chance. This new case is shown to be consistent with the suggestion, developed by Pasternak during a study of birth seasonality in two Taiwan farming communities, that for peasant cultivators the annual cycle of production exerts a more decisive influence on birth seasonality than time of marriage or attributes of temperature, rainfall, or workload. An hypothesis that links the productive cycle to conceptions through the intervening variable of diet is presented and successfully tested using several sets of data on monthly births. A direct effect of nutrition on human fertility, suggested by recent studies of reproductive performance under conditions of nutritional stress, may largely explain seasonality of conceptions and births in populations that experience significant seasonal variation in diet.The Cross Harbor data presented in this paper were collected as part of an ongoing investigation of the comparative demography and social structure of fishing, farming, and market town communities located within a particular Chinese regional system. The support of the National Science Foundation during the period of fieldwork is gratefully acknowledged. I wish to thank G. William Skinner, William H. Durham, Greg Acciaioli, Steven Sangren, Chuang Miao-huei, Harumi Befu, and Philip L. Ritter for their comments on earlier drafts of the present article. I owe a special debt of gratitude to Burton Pasternak (City University of New York), who intellectually inspired and personally encouraged the writing of this paper.     

Seasonality of births in Croatia

The aim of this paper was to investigate seasonal fluctuations of the number of births in Croatia. Vital registration data from the years 1970-2002 was used for analysis of the quarterly data (from the years 1970-1997), and monthly data (from the years 1998-2002). Both data sets were smoothed, using seasonal variation removal for quarterly data, and T4253H smoothing for monthly data. Edwards test and Ratchet circular scan tests were used in analysis. The results showed an increase in the summer birth proportion and decrease in the spring birth proportion, distorted during the wartime period (1991-1995). Monthly analysis reveals highest birth proportion in Croatia during July-September period, with peak date moving towards the end of summer, and reaching stability in the beginning of September during the years 2000-2002. This presumes highest conception rate during the beginning of the Christmas holiday season. Secondary peak in January was found in some years, which presumably sets second period of increased conception rate into the Easter holiday season, supporting the observation of the holiday-related birth peaks. Both quarterly and monthly data indicate a birth pattern that does not resemble either "European", or "American" seasonal pattern. Regional analysis showed lack of seasonality in the capital city of Zagreb and either intermittent or stable seasonality pattern in the rest of the country.     

Refining vegetation simulation models: From plant functional types to bioclimatic affinity groups of plants

Question: How to refine simulations based on a global vegetation model in order to apply it to regional scale? Location: Europe from 35° N to 71° N and 25° W to 70° E. Methods: Geographical ranges of European plants were georeferenced and used with monthly mean climatic data (diurnal temperature ranges, ground frost frequencies, precipitation, relative humidity, rain frequencies, amount of sunshine hours and temperature) and growing degree days to infer climatic boundaries for 320 taxa. We performed a discriminant analysis to define their potential geographic ranges. Hierarchical clustering was computed on potential ranges. Results: Clustering provided 25 Bioclimatic Affinity Groups (BAG) of plants consisting of 13 tree, seven shrub and five herb groups. These B AGs are characterized by different geographical ranges and climatic tolerances and requirements. Conclusion: The use of monthly data instead of annual values improved the prediction of potential distribution ranges and highlighted the importance of climate seasonality for defining the plant groups with accuracy. The B AGs are detailed enough to provide finer reconstructions and simulations of the vegetation at the regional scale.     

Seasonal variation in conception and various pregnancy outcomes

Abstract

U.S. vital registration data on live births and data on abortions and ectopic pregnancies from a national hospital discharge survey were used to examine the seasonality of conceptions and the influence the conception pattern has on the monthly incidence of abortions and ectopic pregnancies. We found that in the United States conceptions follow a consistent seasonal pattern with the peak in November and December. However, when the pattern for conceptions is controlled, the monthly variation for abortions and ectopic pregnancies is not significant. Therefore, we find no monthly excess for any of these outcomes of pregnancy over that expected as a consequence of the seasonality of conception. We suggest the monthly variation for the number of each of these pregnancy outcomes will best be explained when the seasonal variation in conceptions is understood.     

Seasonality of retinal detachment incidence and its associations with climate: an 11-year nationwide population-based study

This study aimed to examine the seasonal variability of retinal detachment (RD) in Taiwan by using an 11-yr nationwide population database. This study also investigated the association of weather conditions, i.e., ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, monthly hours of sunshine, and atmospheric pressure, with RD. Data were retrospectively collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study sample included 23 718 RD hospitalizations between January 1999 and December 2009. The incidence rate of RD/100 000 people over the 132 months was computed according to sex and age groupings of <20, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 yrs. Then, the association between climatic factors and the monthly RD incidence rate was examined. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) method was also employed to test the seasonality of RD incidence rates and their association with climatic factors. The annual RD incidence rates were between 7.8 and 10.8 cases/100 000 people during the study period. A fairly similar seasonal pattern of monthly RD incidence rates was apparent for males and females and males and females combined. Rates were highest August through October, decreasing in November, and lowest in February. After adjusting for time, trend, and month, the ARIMA regression models for the male, female, and males and females combined consistently revealed the monthly RD incidence rate was significantly and positively associated with ambient temperature, but negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. The authors conclude that the monthly RD incidence rates were significantly associated with seasonality. The monthly RD incidence rates were positively associated with ambient temperature and negatively associated with atmospheric pressure.     

Effects of temperature variation on suicide in five U.S. counties, 1991–2001

Effects of weather variables on suicide are well-documented, but there is still little consistency among the results of most studies. Nevertheless, most studies show a peak in suicides during the spring season, and this is often attributed to increased temperatures. The purpose of this study is to test the relationship between monthly temperature and monthly suicide, independent of months or seasons, for five counties located across the United States. Harmonic analysis shows that four of the five counties display some seasonal components in the suicide data. However, simple linear regression shows no correlation between suicide and temperature, and discriminant analysis shows that monthly departure from mean annual suicide rates is not a useful tool for identifying months with temperatures that are colder or warmer than the annual average. Therefore, it appears that the seasonality of suicides is due to factors other than temperature.     

Temporal Variability of Antibiotics Fluxes in Wastewater and Contribution from Hospitals

Significant quantities of antibiotics are used in all parts of the globe to treat diseases with bacterial origins. After ingestion, antibiotics are excreted by the patient and transmitted in due course to the aquatic environment. This study examined temporal fluctuations (monthly time scale) in antibiotic sources (ambulatory sales and data from a hospital dispensary) for Lausanne, Switzerland. Source variability (i.e., antibiotic consumption, monthly data for 2006–2010) were examined in detail for nine antibiotics – azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, clarithromycin, clindamycin, metronidazole, norfloxacin, ofloxacin, sulfamethoxazole and trimethoprim, from which two main conclusions were reached. First, some substances – azithromycin, clarithromycin, ciprofloxacin – displayed high seasonality in their consumption, with the winter peak being up to three times higher than the summer minimum. This seasonality in consumption resulted in seasonality in Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PECs). In addition, the seasonality in PECs was also influenced by that in the base wastewater flow. Second, the contribution of hospitals to the total load of antibiotics reaching the Lausanne Wastewater Treatment Plant (WTP) fluctuated markedly on a monthly time scale, but with no seasonal pattern detected. That is, there was no connection between fluctuations in ambulatory and hospital consumption for the substances investigated.     

Parametric and semiparametric approaches to testing for seasonal trend in serial count data

We present two tests for seasonal trend in monthly incidence data. The first approach uses a penalized likelihood to choose the number of harmonic terms to include in a parametric harmonic model (which includes time trends and autogression as well as seasonal harmonic terms) and then tests for seasonality using a parametric bootstrap test. The second approach uses a semiparametric regression model to test for seasonal trend. In the semiparametric model, the seasonal pattern is modeled nonparametrically, parametric terms are included for autoregressive effects and a linear time trend, and a parametric bootstrap test is used to test for seasonality. For both procedures, a null distribution is generated under a null Poisson model with time trends and autoregression parameters.We apply the methods to skin melanoma incidence rates collected by the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute, and perform simulation studies to evaluate the type I error rate and power for the two procedures. These simulations suggest that both procedures are alpha-level procedures. In addition, the harmonic model/bootstrap test had similar or larger power than the semiparametric model/bootstrap test for a wide range of alternatives, and the harmonic model/bootstrap test is much easier to implement. Thus, we recommend the harmonic model/bootstrap test for the analysis of seasonal incidence data.     

Intraspecific Variation in Home Range Overlap with Habitat Quality: A Comparison among Brown Bear Populations

We developed a conceptual model of spatial organization in vertebrates based upon changes in home range overlap with habitat quality. We tested the model using estimates of annual home ranges of adult females and densities for 30 populations of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in North America. We used seasonality as a surrogate of habitat quality, measured as the coefficient of variation among monthly actual evapotranspiration values for areas in which study populations were located. We calculated home range overlap for each population as the product of the average home range size for adult females and the estimated population density of adult females. Home range size varied positively with seasonality; however, home range overlap varied with seasonality in a nonlinear manner. Areas of low and high seasonality supported brown bears with considerable home range overlap, but areas of moderate seasonality supported brown bears with low home range overlap. These results are consistent with behavioural theory predicting a nonlinear relationship between food availability and territoriality.     

Clostridium difficile Infection Seasonality: Patterns across Hemispheres and Continents – A Systematic Review

Background

Studies have demonstrated seasonal variability in rates of Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Synthesising all available information on seasonality is a necessary step in identifying large-scale epidemiological patterns and elucidating underlying causes.

Methods

Three medical and life sciences publication databases were searched from inception to October 2014 for longitudinal epidemiological studies written in English, Spanish or Portuguese that reported the incidence of CDI. The monthly frequency of CDI were extracted, standardized and weighted according to the number of follow-up months. Cross correlation coefficients (XCORR) were calculated to examine the correlation and lag between the year-month frequencies of reported CDI across hemispheres and continents.

Results

The search identified 13, 5 and 2 studies from North America, Europe, and Oceania, respectively that met the inclusion criteria. CDI had a similar seasonal pattern in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere characterized by a peak in spring and lower frequencies of CDI in summer/autumn with a lag of 8 months (XCORR = 0.60) between hemispheres. There was no difference between the seasonal patterns across European and North American countries.

Conclusion

CDI demonstrates a distinct seasonal pattern that is consistent across North America, Europe and Oceania. Further studies are required to identify the driving factors of the observed seasonality.     

Seasonality of births in nineteenth-century urban Tasmania.

The monthly distribution of births for Hobart Town, Van Diemen's Land, during the period 1839-1859 is examined. Prior research on two rural registration districts in nineteenth-century Tasmania revealed patterns of birth seasonality. The pattern was responsive to both the distinctive seasonal rhythm of regional economic activities and the birth interval and differed from the pattern for all of Tasmania in the twentieth century. Here, I argue that the aggregate monthly pattern of births in a mid-nineteenth-century urban registration district was, by contrast, not seasonal. Some seasonality was found among farmers, seamen, and dealers in foodstuffs but not in other industry groups. Class differences were not apparent. The research establishes that the seasonal distribution of mid-nineteenth-century urban births corresponds neither to nineteenth-century rural patterns nor to the patterns evident in the twentieth century.     

Monthly survival of African Sylvia warblers in a seasonally arid tropical environment

Latitudinal gradients of life-history traits in animals are thought to be shaped by environmental variables. For example, it has been suggested that the increase in avian clutch size from the tropics towards the northern temperate regions is caused by a reduced survival of adult birds in the north due to increasing environmental seasonality. However, the tropical savannahs of East Africa show pronounced seasonality in resources caused by distinct rainy and dry seasons. This raises the question of whether survival and other life-history traits of birds living in these tropical savannahs are influenced by this seasonality, making them more similar to northern temperate species. We used 2-year monthly resighting data, a multistate modelling approach and the program MARK to test whether survival, transition probabilities between breeding states and other life-history traits of two resident Kenyan Sylvia species (Aves: Passeriformes: Sylviidae) are shaped by seasonality of rainfall in their environment. Contradicting our hypotheses, the two species showed only very slight influence of seasonality of rainfall on their survival. Survival in the dry months was hardly lower than in the rainy months. The species in the more seasonal environment ( S. boehmi , annual survival 71%) survived as well as the one in the more constant environment ( S. lugens , 56%). The observed survival rates correspond well to other life-history traits of the two species and are of similar magnitude to survival rates of other tropical passerines. This implies that either seasonality is not the driving force behind the life-history traits of the two species or the birds do not experience their environment as seasonal, as might be suggested by fluctuations in rainfall.     

Seasonality of Retinal Detachment Incidence and Its Associations With Climate: An 11-Year Nationwide Population-Based Study

This study aimed to examine the seasonal variability of retinal detachment (RD) in Taiwan by using an 11-yr nationwide population database. This study also investigated the association of weather conditions, i.e., ambient temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, monthly hours of sunshine, and atmospheric pressure, with RD. Data were retrospectively collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study sample included 23 718 RD hospitalizations between January 1999 and December 2009. The incidence rate of RD/100 000 people over the 132 months was computed according to sex and age groupings of <20, 20–39, 40–59, and ≥60 yrs. Then, the association between climatic factors and the monthly RD incidence rate was examined. The ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) method was also employed to test the seasonality of RD incidence rates and their association with climatic factors. The annual RD incidence rates were between 7.8 and 10.8 cases/100 000 people during the study period. A fairly similar seasonal pattern of monthly RD incidence rates was apparent for males and females and males and females combined. Rates were highest August through October, decreasing in November, and lowest in February. After adjusting for time, trend, and month, the ARIMA regression models for the male, female, and males and females combined consistently revealed the monthly RD incidence rate was significantly and positively associated with ambient temperature, but negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. The authors conclude that the monthly RD incidence rates were significantly associated with seasonality. The monthly RD incidence rates were positively associated with ambient temperature and negatively associated with atmospheric pressure. (Author correspondence: henry11111@tmu.edu.tw)     

Diet and Feeding Behavior of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Leontopithecus chrysomelas</Emphasis> (Callitrichidae) in Degraded Areas of the Atlantic Forest of South-Bahia,Brazil

Habitat disturbance alters plant diversity and food resource availability, affecting the ecology, and ultimately the survival and reproduction, of species depending on those plants. Studies in degraded areas serve to improve our understanding of the consequences of habitat modification for endangered species and to guide conservation actions. We studied diet composition, monthly variation in feeding behavior and fruit feeding time, and dietary diversity in two golden-headed lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) groups ranging in a degraded area of the Atlantic Forest in South-Bahia, Brazil, over a 12-mo period. We recorded feeding behavior and food items consumed through continuous observations and focal animal sampling, and performed dietary analyses on samples from consumed fruits. Substrate manipulation to search for animal prey was the feeding activity most frequently observed, followed by fruit consumption. We observed nectar drinking and exudate feeding at low frequencies from April through July. Bromeliads were the principal foraging substrate. We observed the use of 114 plant species, confirming the large dietary diversity reported for the species. Individual trees from the family Melastomataceae, common in degraded forests, accounted for the highest visiting frequencies (40%). Fruit availability was the main factor explaining variation in monthly fruit feeding time, despite the absence of climatic seasonality. Nutritional or energetic characteristics did not affect fruit choice. Differences in floristic composition appear to be a major determinant of the species’ diet in different study areas. Regional forest restoration programs should consider including advanced forest species, to improve both forest quality and animal mobility between fragments.     

Seasonality of births: stability and change in a developing country

A marked seasonality of births for the two main ethnic groups of peninsular Malaysia, far exceeding the cyclic fluctuations in births in the United States and Canada, was reported for the 1960s. A 36% excess of births over the average monthly number was observed among Malays each January. Among the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia a regular periodicity in the numbers of births was also found, but it was far less marked and the peak occurred in October or November. The peaks in both groups were due in large measure to conceptions that correlate with religious observances or holidays. Here I report on cyclic birth patterns in peninsular Malaysia for the period 1970-1985. Rapid economic development has occurred during this time and has brought with it demographic changes, such as a massive rise in contraceptive use and a decline in birth rates. These demographic changes have been accompanied by the loss of the pronounced seasonal pattern of births among the Malays. The seasonality of Malay births is now of roughly the same magnitude as the seasonality in the United States and Canada, whereas seasonality of births among the Chinese in Malaysia remains essentially unchanged.     

Note on the choice of statistic for testing hypotheses regarding seasonality

The Kolmogorov-Smirnov one-sample test and the Pearson chi-square test are discussed regarding their application for testing hypotheses of seasonality in births. This paper addresses some points mentioned in an earlier paper by McCullough and argues that the chi-square procedure may be the better test.     

Effects of maternal birth season on birth seasonality in the Canadian population during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries

Birth records of the French-Canadian population for the period 1621-1765 were analyzed retrospectively to examine the effect of maternal birth season on the seasonal distribution of births. Preliminary examination indicated that there was a bimodal pattern in birth seasonality: a major peak in early spring, a trough in early summer, a minor peak in autumn, and a trough around December. Because this seasonality was strongly biased at the level of the first birth by the month of marriage, which was concentrated in November, the seasonality of nonfirst births (n = 32,926) was examined in relation to the four seasons of maternal birth. Mothers born in May-July showed a flatter monthly distribution of nonfirst births at a maternal age of 28 years or more. Analysis of marriage-first birth intervals indicated that mothers who married in August-October showed a lower percentage of immediate conception (intervals of 8-10 months), whereas those mothers born in May-July had a higher percentage of immediate conception. This difference in birth seasonality shown by mothers born in May-July is similar to results from early twentieth-century Japan. Some seasonal infertility factors could have affected the embryos at the earliest stage of pregnancy, modifying a part of the seasonal variation in birth rate.