Neutral Models with Generalised Speciation

Hubbell’s neutral theory claims that ecological patterns such as species abundance distributions can be explained by a stochastic model based on simple assumptions. One of these assumptions, the point mutation assumption, states that every individual has the same probability to speciate. Etienne et al. have argued that other assumptions on the speciation process could be more realistic, for example, that every species has the same probability to speciate (Etienne, et al. in Oikos 116:241–258, 2007). They introduced a number of neutral community models with a different speciation process, and conjectured formulas for their stationary species abundance distribution. Here we study a generalised neutral community model, encompassing these modified models, and derive its stationary distribution, thus proving the conjectured formulas.     

A new sampling formula for neutral biodiversity

The neutral model of biodiversity, proposed by Hubbell (The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2001) to explain the diversity of functionally equivalent species, has been subject of hot debate in community ecology. Whereas Hubbell studied the model mostly by simulations, recently analytical treatments have yielded expressions of the expected number of species of a particular abundance in a local community with dispersal limitation. Moreover, a formula has been offered for the joint likelihood of observing a given species‐abundance dataset in a local community with dispersal limitation, but this formula is too complicated to allow practical applications. Here, I present a much simplified expression that can be regarded as an enhanced version of the famous Ewens sampling formula. It can be used in maximum likelihood methods for quick estimation of the model parameters, using all information in the data, and for model comparison. I also show how to rapidly generate examples of species‐abundance distributions for a given set of model parameters and how to calculate Simpson's diversity index.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of neutral model parameters for multiple samples with different degrees of dispersal limitation

In a recent paper, I presented a sampling formula for species abundances from multiple samples according to the prevailing neutral model of biodiversity, but practical implementation for parameter estimation was only possible when these samples were from local communities that were assumed to be equally dispersal limited. Here I show how the same sampling formula can also be used to estimate model parameters using maximum likelihood when the samples have different degrees of dispersal limitation. Moreover, it performs better than other, approximate, parameter estimation approaches. I also show how to calculate errors in the parameter estimates, which has so far been largely ignored in the development of and debate on neutral theory.     

The zero-sum assumption in neutral biodiversity theory

The neutral theory of biodiversity as put forward by Hubbell in his 2001 monograph has received much criticism for its unrealistic simplifying assumptions. These are the assumptions of functional equivalence among different species (neutrality), the assumption of point mutation speciation, and the assumption that resources are continuously saturated, such that constant resource availability implies constant community size (zero-sum assumption). Here we focus on the zero-sum assumption. We present a general theory for calculating the probability of observing a particular species-abundance distribution (sampling formula) and show that zero-sum and non-zero-sum formulations of neutral theory have exactly the same sampling formula when the community is in equilibrium. Moreover, for the non-zero-sum community the sampling formula has this same form, even out of equilibrium. Therefore, the term "zero-sum multinomial (ZSM)" to describe species abundance patterns, as coined by Hubbell [2001. The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity and Biogeography, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ], is not really appropriate, as it also applies to non-zero-sum communities. Instead we propose the term "dispersal-limited multinomial (DLM)", thus making explicit one of the most important contributions of neutral community theory, the emphasis on dispersal limitation as a dominant factor in determining species abundances.     

Mechanisms determining the fate of dispersed bacterial communities in new environments

Recent work has shown that dispersal has an important role in shaping microbial communities. However, little is known about how dispersed bacteria cope with new environmental conditions and how they compete with local resident communities. To test this, we implemented two full-factorial transplant experiments with bacterial communities originating from two sources (freshwater or saline water), which were incubated, separately or in mixes, under both environmental conditions. Thus, we were able to separately test for the effects of the new environment with and without interactions with local communities. We determined community composition using 454-pyrosequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA to specifically target the active fraction of the communities, and measured several functional parameters. In absence of a local resident community, the net functional response was mainly affected by the environmental conditions, suggesting successful functional adaptation to the new environmental conditions. Community composition was influenced both by the source and the incubation environment, suggesting simultaneous effects of species sorting and functional plasticity. In presence of a local resident community, functional parameters were higher compared with those expected from proportional mixes of the unmixed communities in three out of four cases. This was accompanied by an increase in the relative abundance of generalists, suggesting that competitive interactions among local and immigrant taxa could explain the observed ‘functional overachievement''. In summary, our results suggest that environmental filtering, functional plasticity and competition are all important mechanisms influencing the fate of dispersed communities.     

The importance of landscape and habitat properties in explaining instantaneous and long‐term distributions of large branchiopods in subtropical temporary pans

1. The notion that the spatial configuration of habitat patches has to be taken into account to understand the structure and dynamics of ecological communities is the starting point of metacommunity ecology. One way to assess metacommunity structure is to investigate the relative importance of environmental heterogeneity and spatial structure in explaining community patterns over different spatial and temporal scales. 2. We studied metacommunity structure of large branchiopod assemblages characteristic of subtropical temporary pans in SE Zimbabwe using two community data sets: a community snapshot and a long‐term data set covering 4 years. We assessed the relative importance of environmental heterogeneity and dispersal (inferred from patch occupancy patterns) as drivers of community structure. Furthermore, we contrasted metacommunity patterns in pans that occasionally connect to the river (floodplain pans) and pans that lack such connections altogether (endorheic pans) using redundancy models. 3. Echoes of species sorting and dispersal limitation emerge from our data set, suggesting that both local and regional processes contribute to explaining branchiopod assemblages in this system. Relative importance of local and regional factors depended on the type of data set considered. Overall, habitat characteristics that vary in time, such as conductivity, hydroperiod and vegetation cover, best explained the instantaneous species composition observed during a snapshot sampling while long‐term species composition appeared to be linked to more constant intrinsic habitat properties such as river connectivity and spatial location.     

天童常绿阔叶林中常绿与落叶物种的物种多度分布格局

物种多度分布是对群落内不同物种多度情况的数量描述, 作为理解群落性质的基石, 其形成机制受到广泛关注。常绿与落叶物种是两类有着不同物候性状与生长策略的物种集合, 它们普遍共存于常绿阔叶林中。在天童20 ha常绿阔叶林动态监测样地内, 虽然常绿物种在物种多度和胸高断面积等指标上占有绝对优势, 但其在物种丰富度上却不及落叶物种。分析两者在常绿阔叶林中的物种多度分布特征, 能够为理解常绿阔叶林内物种多样性的维持机制提供一个全新的视角。为此, 我们基于天童样地的植被调查数据, 一方面利用累积经验分布函数对两类生活型植物的物种多度分布进行描述, 使用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(K-S检验)判断其差异性; 另一方面, 采用纯统计模型、生态位模型和中性理论模型对二者的物种多度分布曲线进行拟合, 并基于K-S检验的结果以及AIC值进行最优模型的筛选。结果显示: (1)常绿与落叶物种的物种多度分布曲线间并无显著差异。(2)在选用的3类模型中, 中性理论模型对于两类物种多度分布曲线的拟合效果都最好, 而生态位模型的拟合效果则一般。从上述结果可以看出, 尽管常绿与落叶物种在物种数量和多度等方面均存在差异, 但它们却有着近似的物种多度分布格局以及相近的多样性维持机制。然而, 鉴于模型拟合的结果只能作为理解群落多样性构建机制的必要非充分条件, 故而只能初步判定中性过程对于常绿与落叶物种的物种多样性格局影响更大, 却不能排除或衡量诸如生态位分化等其他过程在两类生活型多样性格局形成中的贡献。     

The role of recruitment and dispersal limitation in tree community assembly in Amazonian forests

Background: Species composition of plant communities is shaped by the interplay between dispersal limitation, environmental filters and stochastic events.

Aims: The aim of this work was to investigate the effects of dispersal limitation and environmental filtering on tree recruitment. To accomplish this, we employed the unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography to examine migration within the metacommunity, defined as a set of interacting local communities linked by the dispersal of multiple potentially interacting species.

Methods: We sampled 12,975 individuals with dbh ≥ 1 cm in 26 1-ha permanent plots, including habitats of terra firme, transitional forests, várzea and campinarana, on the upper Madeira River, Brazilian Amazon.

Results: Campinarana drew individuals from outside the metacommunity species pool at a mean probability of recruitment of 0.06, a much lower probability than terra firme (0.31), transitional (0.21) and várzea forests (0.22). Environmental variables, such as water table depth, soil texture and fertility, were related to differences in community assembly.

Conclusions: Species abundance distribution and diversity patterns of plant assemblages in a large river landscape in the Amazon highlight the importance of environmental heterogeneity that conditions beta-diversity. The high variation in recruitment probabilities from the metacommunity species pool to local communities suggests high habitat variability in the process of maintaining patterns of local diversity.