How big should a mammal be? A macroecological look at mammalian body size over space and time

Macroecology was developed as a big picture statistical approach to the study of ecology and evolution. By focusing on broadly occurring patterns and processes operating at large spatial and temporal scales rather than on localized and/or fine-scaled details, macroecology aims to uncover general mechanisms operating at organism, population, and ecosystem levels of organization. Macroecological studies typically involve the statistical analysis of fundamental species-level traits, such as body size, area of geographical range, and average density and/or abundance. Here, we briefly review the history of macroecology and use the body size of mammals as a case study to highlight current developments in the field, including the increasing linkage with biogeography and other disciplines. Characterizing the factors underlying the spatial and temporal patterns of body size variation in mammals is a daunting task and moreover, one not readily amenable to traditional statistical analyses. Our results clearly illustrate remarkable regularities in the distribution and variation of mammalian body size across both geographical space and evolutionary time that are related to ecology and trophic dynamics and that would not be apparent without a broader perspective.     

Patterns and causes of species richness: a general simulation model for macroecology

Understanding the causes of spatial variation in species richness is a major research focus of biogeography and macroecology. Gridded environmental data and species richness maps have been used in increasingly sophisticated curve‐fitting analyses, but these methods have not brought us much closer to a mechanistic understanding of the patterns. During the past two decades, macroecologists have successfully addressed technical problems posed by spatial autocorrelation, intercorrelation of predictor variables and non‐linearity. However, curve‐fitting approaches are problematic because most theoretical models in macroecology do not make quantitative predictions, and they do not incorporate interactions among multiple forces. As an alternative, we propose a mechanistic modelling approach. We describe computer simulation models of the stochastic origin, spread, and extinction of species’ geographical ranges in an environmentally heterogeneous, gridded domain and describe progress to date regarding their implementation. The output from such a general simulation model (GSM) would, at a minimum, consist of the simulated distribution of species ranges on a map, yielding the predicted number of species in each grid cell of the domain. In contrast to curve‐fitting analysis, simulation modelling explicitly incorporates the processes believed to be affecting the geographical ranges of species and generates a number of quantitative predictions that can be compared to empirical patterns. We describe three of the ‘control knobs’ for a GSM that specify simple rules for dispersal, evolutionary origins and environmental gradients. Binary combinations of different knob settings correspond to eight distinct simulation models, five of which are already represented in the literature of macroecology. The output from such a GSM will include the predicted species richness per grid cell, the range size frequency distribution, the simulated phylogeny and simulated geographical ranges of the component species, all of which can be compared to empirical patterns. Challenges to the development of the GSM include the measurement of goodness of fit (GOF) between observed data and model predictions, as well as the estimation, optimization and interpretation of the model parameters. The simulation approach offers new insights into the origin and maintenance of species richness patterns, and may provide a common framework for investigating the effects of contemporary climate, evolutionary history and geometric constraints on global biodiversity gradients. With further development, the GSM has the potential to provide a conceptual bridge between macroecology and historical biogeography.     

Global patterns of geographic range size in birds

Large-scale patterns of spatial variation in species geographic range size are central to many fundamental questions in macroecology and conservation biology. However, the global nature of these patterns has remained contentious, since previous studies have been geographically restricted and/or based on small taxonomic groups. Here, using a database on the breeding distributions of birds, we report the first (to our knowledge) global maps of variation in species range sizes for an entire taxonomic class. We show that range area does not follow a simple latitudinal pattern. Instead, the smallest range areas are attained on islands, in mountainous areas, and largely in the southern hemisphere. In contrast, bird species richness peaks around the equator, and towards higher latitudes. Despite these profoundly different latitudinal patterns, spatially explicit models reveal a weak tendency for areas with high species richness to house species with significantly smaller median range area. Taken together, these results show that for birds many spatial patterns in range size described in geographically restricted analyses do not reflect global rules. It remains to be discovered whether global patterns in geographic range size are best interpreted in terms of geographical variation in species assemblage packing, or in the rates of speciation, extinction, and dispersal that ultimately underlie biodiversity.     

Where do species' geographic ranges stop and why? Landscape impermeability and the Afrotropical avifauna

Although understanding large-scale spatial variation in species'' distributions is a major goal in macroecology, relatively little attention has been paid to the factors limiting species'' ranges. An understanding of these factors may improve predictions of species'' movements in response to global change. We present a measure of landscape impermeability, defined as the proportion of resident species whose ranges end in an area. We quantify and map impermeability for Afrotropical birds and use multi-model inference to assess support for a wide suite of hypotheses about its potential environmental correlates. Non-spatial analyses emphasize the importance of broad-scale environmental patterns of energy availability and habitat heterogeneity in limiting species'' distributions. Conversely, spatial analyses focus attention on small-scale factors of habitat and topographic complexity. These results hold even when only species from the top quartile of range sizes are assessed. All our analyses highlight that range edges are concentrated in heterogeneous habitats. Global change is expected to alter the nature and distribution of such habitats, necessitating range movement by many resident species. Therefore, impermeability provides a simple measure for identifying regions, where continuing global change and human encroachment are likely to cause profound changes in regional diversity patterns.     

Grinnellian and Eltonian niches and geographic distributions of species

In the recent past, availability of large data sets of species presences has increased by orders of magnitude. This, together with developments in geographical information systems and statistical methods, has enabled scientists to calculate, for thousands of species, the environmental conditions of their distributional areas. The profiles thus obtained are obviously related to niche concepts in the Grinnell tradition, and separated from those in Elton's tradition. I argue that it is useful to define Grinnellian and Eltonian niches on the basis of the types of variables used to calculate them, the natural spatial scale at which they can be measured, and the dispersal of the individuals over the environment. I use set theory notation and analogies derived from population ecology theory to obtain formal definitions of areas of distribution and several types of niches. This brings clarity to several practical and fundamental questions in macroecology and biogeography.     

空间尺度对地形异质性-物种多样性关系的影响:粒度和幅度

空间尺度是影响我们理解生态学格局和过程的关键因素.目前已有多种关于物种多样性分布格局形成机制的假说且研究者未达成共识,原因之一是空间尺度对物种多样性分布格局的环境影响因子的解释力和相对重要性有重要影响.地形异质性是物种多样性分布格局的重要影响因素.本文综述了在地形异质性-物种多样性关系的研究中,不同空间粒度和幅度对研究...     

What's on the horizon for macroecology?

Over the last two decades, macroecology – the analysis of large‐scale, multi‐species ecological patterns and processes – has established itself as a major line of biological research. Analyses of statistical links between environmental variables and biotic responses have long and successfully been employed as a main approach, but new developments are due to be utilized. Scanning the horizon of macroecology, we identified four challenges that will probably play a major role in the future. We support our claims by examples and bibliographic analyses. 1) Integrating the past into macroecological analyses, e.g. by using paleontological or phylogenetic information or by applying methods from historical biogeography, will sharpen our understanding of the underlying reasons for contemporary patterns. 2) Explicit consideration of the local processes that lead to the observed larger‐scale patterns is necessary to understand the fine‐grain variability found in nature, and will enable better prediction of future patterns (e.g. under environmental change conditions). 3) Macroecology is dependent on large‐scale, high quality data from a broad spectrum of taxa and regions. More available data sources need to be tapped and new, small‐grain large‐extent data need to be collected. 4) Although macroecology already lead to mainstreaming cutting‐edge statistical analysis techniques, we find that more sophisticated methods are needed to account for the biases inherent to sampling at large scale. Bayesian methods may be particularly suitable to address these challenges. To continue the vigorous development of the macroecological research agenda, it is time to address these challenges and to avoid becoming too complacent with current achievements.     

Fine-scale spatial genetic correlation analyses reveal strong female philopatry within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby colony in southeast Queensland

We combine spatial data on home ranges of individuals and microsatellite markers to examine patterns of fine-scale spatial genetic structure and dispersal within a brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata) colony at Hurdle Creek Valley, Queensland. Brush-tailed rock-wallabies were once abundant and widespread throughout the rocky terrain of southeastern Australia; however, populations are nearly extinct in the south of their range and in decline elsewhere. We use pairwise relatedness measures and a recent multilocus spatial autocorrelation analysis to test the hypotheses that in this species, within-colony dispersal is male-biased and that female philopatry results in spatial clusters of related females within the colony. We provide clear evidence for strong female philopatry and male-biased dispersal within this rock-wallaby colony. There was a strong, significant negative correlation between pairwise relatedness and geographical distance of individual females along only 800 m of cliff line. Spatial genetic autocorrelation analyses showed significant positive correlation for females in close proximity to each other and revealed a genetic neighbourhood size of only 600 m for females. Our study is the first to report on the fine-scale spatial genetic structure within a rock-wallaby colony and we provide the first robust evidence for strong female philopatry and spatial clustering of related females within this taxon. We discuss the ecological and conservation implications of our findings for rock-wallabies, as well as the importance of fine-scale spatial genetic patterns in studies of dispersal behaviour.     

Less than eight (and a half) misconceptions of spatial analysis

Spatial analyses are indispensable analytical tools in biogeography and macroecology. In a recent Guest Editorial, Hawkins (Journal of Biogeography, 2012, 39 , 1–9) raised several issues related to spatial analyses. While we concur with some points, we here clarify those confounding (1) spatial trends and spatial autocorrelation, and (2) spatial autocorrelation in the response variable and in the residuals. We argue that recognizing spatial autocorrelation in statistical modelling is not only a crucial step in model diagnostics, but that disregarding it is essentially wrong.     

When does diversity fit null model predictions? Scale and range size mediate the mid‐domain effect

Aim  Recently, a flurry of studies have focused on the extent to which geographical patterns of diversity fit mid-domain effect (MDE) null models. While some studies find strong support for MDE null models, others find little. We test two hypotheses that might explain this variation among studies: small-ranged groups of species are less likely than large-ranged species to show mid-domain peaks in species richness, and mid-domain null model predictions are less robust for smaller spatial extents than for larger spatial extents.
Location  We analyse data sets from elevational, riverine, continental and other domains from around the world.
Methods  We use a combination of Spearman rank correlations and binomial tests to examine whether differences within and among studies and domains in the predictive power of MDE null models vary with spatial scale and range size.
Results  Small-ranged groups of species are less likely to fit mid-domain predictions than large-ranged groups of species. At large spatial extents, diversity patterns of taxonomic groups with large mean range sizes fit MDE null model predictions better than did diversity patterns of groups with small mean range sizes. MDE predictions were more explanatory at larger spatial extents than at smaller extents. Diversity patterns at smaller spatial extents fit MDE predictions poorly across all range sizes. Thus, MDE predictions should be expected to explain patterns of species richness when ranges and the scale of analysis are both large.
Main conclusions  Taken together, the support for these hypotheses offers a more sophisticated model of when MDE predictions should be expected to explain patterns of species richness, namely when ranges and the scale of analysis are both large. Thus the circumstances in which the MDE is important are finite and apparently predictable.     

Geographical variation in predictors of mammalian extinction risk: big is bad, but only in the tropics

Whereas previous studies have investigated correlates of extinction risk either at global or regional scales, our study explicitly models regional effects of anthropogenic threats and biological traits across the globe. Using phylogenetic comparative methods with a newly-updated supertree of 5020 extant mammals, we investigate the impact of species traits on extinction risk within each WWF ecoregion. Our analyses reveal strong geographical variation in the influence of traits on risk: notably, larger species are at higher risk only in tropical regions. We then relate these patterns to current and recent-historical human impacts across ecoregions using spatial modelling. The body–mass results apparently reflect historical declines of large species outside the tropics due to large-scale land conversion. Narrow-ranged and rare species tend to be at high risk in areas of high current human impacts. The interactions we describe between biological traits and anthropogenic threats increase understanding of the processes determining extinction risk.     

The macroecology of infectious diseases: a new perspective on global‐scale drivers of pathogen distributions and impacts

Identifying drivers of infectious disease patterns and impacts at the broadest scales of organisation is one of the most crucial challenges for modern science, yet answers to many fundamental questions remain elusive. These include what factors commonly facilitate transmission of pathogens to novel host species, what drives variation in immune investment among host species, and more generally what drives global patterns of parasite diversity and distribution? Here we consider how the perspectives and tools of macroecology, a field that investigates patterns and processes at broad spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales, are expanding scientific understanding of global infectious disease ecology. In particular, emerging approaches are providing new insights about scaling properties across all living taxa, and new strategies for mapping pathogen biodiversity and infection risk. Ultimately, macroecology is establishing a framework to more accurately predict global patterns of infectious disease distribution and emergence.     

Ecological and evolutionary components of body size: geographic variation of venomous snakes at the global scale

Biogeographical patterns of animal body size and the environmental and evolutionary mechanisms that may be driving them have been broadly investigated in macroecology, although just barely in ectotherms. We separately studied two snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae, and used phylogenetic eigenvector regression and ordinary least squares multiple regression methods to perform a global grid-based analysis of the extent at which the patterns of body size (measured for each species as its log₁₀-transformed maximum body length) of these groups are phylogenetically structured or driven by current environment trends. Phylogenetic relatedness explained 20% of the across-species size variation in Viperidae, and 59% of that of Elapidae, which is a more recent clade. Conversely, when we analysed spatial trends in mean body size values (calculated for each grid-cell as the average size of its extant species), an environmental model including temperature, precipitation, primary productivity (as indicated by the global vegetation index) and topography (range in elevation) explained 37.6% of the variation of Viperidae, but only 4.5% of that of Elapidae. These contrasted responses of body size patterns to current environment gradients are discussed, taking into consideration the dissimilar evolutionary histories of these closely-related groups. Additionally, the results obtained emphasize the importance of the need to start adopting deconstructive approaches in macroecology.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 98 , 94–109.     

Disparity between range map- and survey-based analyses of species richness: patterns, processes and implications

Species richness patterns are characterized either by overlaying species range maps or by compiling geographically extensive survey data for multiple local communities. Although, these two approaches are clearly related, they need not produce identical richness patterns because species do not occur everywhere in their geographical range. Using North American breeding birds, we present the first continent‐wide comparison of survey and range map data. On average, bird species were detected on 40.5% of the surveys within their range. As a result of this range porosity, the geographical richness patterns differed markedly, with the greatest disparity in arid regions and at higher elevations. Environmental productivity was a stronger predictor of survey richness, while elevational heterogeneity was more important in determining range map richness. In addition, range map richness exhibited greater spatial autocorrelation and lower estimates of spatial turnover in species composition. Our results highlight the fact that range map richness represents species coexistence at a much coarser scale than survey data, and demonstrate that the conclusions drawn from species richness studies may depend on the data type used for analyses.     

中国蚂蚁丰富度地理分布格局及其与环境因子的关系

物种丰富度分布格局及其形成机制的研究对于生物多样性保护具有重要意义。为了了解中国蚂蚁物种丰富度分布格局,利用中国省级尺度蚂蚁物种分布数据和环境信息,结合GIS和数理统计方法,探讨蚂蚁物种丰富度的地理分布格局与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)蚂蚁丰富度随纬度增加呈逐渐递减趋势,但缺乏显著的经度梯度。丰富度最高的地区主要集中在南方省份,我国北方、西北干旱区和青藏高原北部地区丰富度较低;(2)简单线性回归分析表明,能量、水分和季节性因素中,影响蚂蚁物种丰富度最强的因子分别为最冷月均温(TEMmin)(R2adj=0.532)、年均降水量(PREC)(R2adj=0.376)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)(R2adj=0.539),而单个生境异质性因子对蚂蚁物种丰富度的影响均不显著;(3)最优模型由年均温(TEM)、海拔变化范围(ELErange)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)组成,能够解释68.4%的蚂蚁丰富度地理分异。鉴于海拔变化范围更多地反映与温度相关的生境异质性,因此温度是限制中国蚂蚁分布的最重要因素。另外,分析结果还表明,海南、贵州、江西、四川、安徽和山西等6省蚂蚁区系调查最不充分,是未来发现蚂蚁新分布的热点地区。     

Ice age climate, evolutionary constraints and diversity patterns of European dung beetles

Current climate and Pleistocene climatic changes are both known to be associated with geographical patterns of diversity. We assess their associations with the European Scarabaeinae dung beetles, a group with high dispersal ability and well-known adaptations to warm environments. By assessing spatial stationarity in climate variability since the last glacial maximum (LGM), we find that current scarab richness is related to the location of their limits of thermal tolerance during the LGM. These limits mark a strong change in their current species richness-environment relationships. Furthermore, northern scarab assemblages are nested and composed of a phylogenetically clustered subset of large-range sized generalist species, whereas southern ones are diverse and variable in composition. Our results show that species responses to current climate are limited by the evolution of assemblages that occupied relatively climatically stable areas during the Pleistocene, and by post-glacial dispersal in those that were strongly affected by glaciations.     

Spatial distributions of European Tenebrionidae point to multiple postglacial colonization trajectories

Many studies have found that species richness in the Western Palaearctic follows a latitudinal trend, yet the importance of geographical and ecological factors in shaping species ranges remains obscure. In this article, we present geographical patterns of darkling beetles (Tenebrionidae), a species‐rich group of arthropods. We relate the spatial distributions of species, instead of simply species richness, to spatial and climatic gradients, and test the effects of area (by species–area relationships), latitude (by various climatic gradients) and environmental diversity (by elevation) using simultaneous autoregressive models to identify major correlates of species richness. We then use nestedness and co‐occurrence analyses to identify glacial refugial centres and postglacial dispersal trajectories responsible for current species ranges. Our results indicate the presence of two refugial centres (in the Iberian and Balkan peninsulas) that appear to have been particularly important in shaping extant tenebrionid ranges. Northern countries were selectively colonized by more tolerant and, possibly, more mobile species, which survived in southern refugia during the Pleistocene glacial maxima, whereas the low dispersal capabilities of many species that evolved in these southern isolated areas prevented their spread northwards. High levels of endemism recorded in Spain and Sardinia suggest that the faunas of these regions originated during the Tertiary period and have remained substantially isolated. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 318–329.     

Inconsistent estimates of diversity between traditional and DNA taxonomy in bdelloid rotifers

Microscopic animals offer great potential in the analysis of spatial patterns of diversity, as they may provide different scenarios for biogeography and macroecology, but understanding diversity of microscopic animals is hampered by lack of comprehensive data on species distribution and by unreliable taxonomy. DNA taxonomy may prove useful in obtaining reliable data in the future, but we still do not know to what extent traditional and DNA taxonomy can be comparable for microscopic organisms. In this paper, we compare analyses and estimates of diversity at the level of species assemblage between traditional and DNA taxonomy for a group of moss-dwelling microscopic animals, bdelloid rotifers. The results are straightforward: Traditional species identification underestimates diversity by factors of 2 at the local and 2.5 at the regional scale. We discuss the results in the framework of current hypotheses on the distribution of microscopic animals.