Lotic meiofaunal community dynamics: colonisation, resilience and persistence in a spatially and temporally heterogeneous environment

1.  The spatial and temporal dynamics of lotic meiofaunal communities were examined with a focus on colonisation, maintenance of populations in lotic environments and persistence of meiofaunal communities.
2.  Lotic meiofaunal colonisation of new habitats may take place via a number of mechanisms and is rapid at both the patch scale (within hours–days) and the drainage basin scale (within 20 years). Successional patterns in lotic meiofaunal communities are evident although data are extremely limited.
3.  Lotic meiofaunal communities appear to be resilient to high flow disturbances. Resilience is moderated by the availability of in-stream refugia and habitat hydrology. Lotic meiofauna may also adopt a 'refuge as habitat' approach to such disturbances.
4.  Lotic cyclopoid copepods possess a common suite of life history characteristics that confers resilience to disturbances. Compared to pelagic planktonic species they have short generation times, many descendants per reproductive cycle and long lifespans. Females in 'source' populations are likely to survive disturbances and so could continuously reproduce over a long period of time producing large numbers of offspring which develop rapidly and recolonise 'sink' areas of the stream.
5.  Persistence of lotic meiofaunal communities is highly variable. Meiofaunal persistence does not increase with increasing proportions of in-stream flow refugia.     

Population differences in the timing of diapause: adaptation in a spatially heterogeneous environment

Summary Populations of the planktonic copepod, Diaptomus sanguineus, live in permanent and temporary freshwater ponds in Rhode Island. All ponds in which they occur become uninhabitable at some time during the year, but the nature and timing of the harsh period varies both spatially and temporally. Females produce discrete clutches either of subitaneous eggs which hatch immediately or of diapausing eggs which hatch the following season. The two egg types show distinct chorion morphologies under transmission electron microscopy. In permanent ponds the copepods start making diapausing eggs in March, one month before rising water temperatures induce planktivorous sunfish to become active. In temporary ponds diapausing eggs are produced, in a complex pattern from May to July, before the water disappears in late summer or early fall.We investigated the spatial scale at which D. sanguineus is adapted to this complex environment. In a reciprocal transfer experiment between temporary and permanent bodies of water, female copepods placed in new ponds made subies of water, female copepods placed in new ponds made subitaneous and diapausing eggs in the same sequence as control females retained in their home ponds. The copepod populations enter diapause at times appropriate for the local habitat conditions they experience, but inappropriate for other, nearby ponds. Transplanted females were unable to sense a change in pond type or to adjust egg production accordingly. We conclude that D. sanguineus populations are adapted to the specific conditions of isolated ponds rather than to a broader geographical region containing several pond types.     

A test of heterogeneous mixing as a mechanism for ecological persistence in a disturbed environment

Persistence is a central issue in population ecology with important implications for population management. Most theoretical studies have focused on continually interacting populations, even though many systems are subject to ecological disturbances which confound analysis of persistence. In this paper, we use a combination of a simple parasite–hyperparasite model with disturbances and field data to investigate the factors contributing to the observed persistence of the parasite population. The field data are taken from a two-year experiment (including five growing seasons) investigating the use of the mycoparasite Sporidesmium sclerotivorum as a persistent biological control agent of Sclerotinia minor, an economically important fungal parasite of lettuce. We show that the standard assumption of homogeneous mixing fails to predict the observed persistence of the parasite population. We demonstrate that allowing for heterogeneous mixing prevents the fade-out predicted in the homogeneous mixing case. The implications of the results for broad classes of host–parasite systems are discussed.     

Recruitment variation in a stream galaxiid fish: multiple influences on fry dynamics in a heterogeneous environment

1. The relative importance of density‐dependent and density‐independent processes in explaining fluctuations in natural populations has been widely debated. In particular, the importance of larval supply and whether it may control the type of regulatory processes a population experiences has proved contentious. 2. Using surveys and field experiments conducted in streams in Canterbury, New Zealand, we investigated how variation in the survival of non‐migratory Galaxias vulgaris fry was affected by density‐dependent and density‐independent processes and how this variation influenced recruitment dynamics. 3. Fry populations with high settlement densities experienced a 70–80% reduction in population size from density‐related mortality during the first fourteen days after peak settlement but thereafter the influence of density‐dependent processes on fry was weak. The impact of environmental conditions on fry populations was dependent on fry size and the magnitude of the perturbation, such that flooding effects on fry survival were most severe when fry were small. 4. In streams not affected by flooding, the size and density of introduced trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) were the most significant factors determining the abundance of eventual recruits. A field experiment manipulating brown trout access to fry populations revealed that trout as small as 110 mm may be capable of greatly reducing and possibly preventing galaxiid recruitment. 5. Overall, the results indicated density‐dependent population regulation was only possible at sites with high native fish densities because trout were likely to be suppressing the number of potential recruits at sites with low native fish numbers. Whilst density‐dependent processes had a strong effect on fry survival following the period of peak fry abundance, density‐independent processes associated with flow and predatory trout influences on fry survival largely determined recruitment variability among galaxiid populations. Focusing conservation efforts on improving habitat to increase fry retention and reducing the impacts of trout on galaxiids would ensure more native fish populations reached their potential abundance.     

The palaeogeography of mosquito-borne disease

Malaria parasites Plasmodiidae and their evolutionary precursors (Haemoproteidae arc found in reptiles, birds and mammals. The distribution of reptile plasmodiids relative to the former Panamanian portal suggests an origin in the very early Tertiary at the latest. Fossil vectors are known from the Lower Cretaceous. Avian plasmodiids, unlike those of reptiles, are no more successful than their haemoproteids and are presumably of more recent origin. Their wide host range and indifferent taxonomy admit of little evolutionary speculation. Mammal plasmodiids are confined to Dermoptera, artiodactyls, bats, rodents and primates. Haemoproteids are found in the last four and in elephant shrews, suggesting an origin in early Tertiary Archonta and allied arboreal ancestors of rodents and artiodactvls. The latter have acquired different vectors [Anopheles sen. su slriclo) from those of the others which, so far as known, are confined to series Neomyzomyia of subgenus C. ellia , a group of African origin. Primate malarias are believed to have spread from Africa into Asia, those ol other orders to have evolved in situ. Secondary acquisition is suspected in murids. The African plasmodiid fauna is clearly a relict one. Human and other primate malarias may have been acquired as both zoonoses and anthroponoses. The association between human malarias and haemoglobinopathies affords clues to the palaeogeography of African man.     

Mycobacterial persistence: adaptation to a changing environment

Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a bacterial pathogen that can persist within an infected individual for extended periods of time without causing overt, clinical disease, in a state normally referred to as latent or chronic tuberculosis. Although the replicative state of the bacterium during this period is a matter of some conjecture, recent developments have indicated that the bacterium requires the regulated expression of a set of genes and metabolic pathways to maintain a persistent infection in an immunocompetent host. The characterization of these gene products and their role in bacterial metabolism and physiology is starting to provide insights into the mechanisms that M. tuberculosis has evolved to adopt its highly successful mode of pathogenicity.     

A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment

Directly transmitted infectious diseases spread through wildlife populations as travelling waves away from the sites of original introduction. These waves often become distorted through their interaction with environmental and population heterogeneities and by long-distance translocation of infected individuals. Accurate a priori predictions of travelling waves of infection depend upon understanding and quantifying these distorting factors. We assess the effects of anisotropies arising from the orientation of rivers in relation to the direction of disease-front propagation and the damming effect of mountains on disease movement in natural populations. The model successfully predicts the local and large-scale prevaccination spread of raccoon rabies through New York State, based on a previous spatially heterogeneous model of raccoon-rabies invasion across the state of Connecticut. Use of this model provides a rare example of a priori prediction of an epidemic invasion over a naturally heterogeneous landscape. Model predictions matched to data can also be used to evaluate the most likely points of disease introduction. These results have general implications for predicting future pathogen invasions and evaluating potential containment strategies.     

Influence of activity in a heterogeneous environment on the dynamics of fish growth: an individual-based model of roacl

A spatio-temporal individual-based model (IBM), including bioenergetic principles, is used to investigate how energy costs coupled to activity represent a variable fraction in a heterogeneous environment and how this is related to another energetic criterion, the potential individual growth, under the conditions of a structured environment. With this approach, it is possible to connect simulated spatio-temporal activity patterns with the energetic needs required for these activities. By using simple foraging rules and a modified random walk model it is possible to reproduce spatial distributions and length frequency distributions. The simulated spatial distribution of roach Rutilus rutilus in Lake Belau, Germany, results in a mean weekly activity multiplier [(standard metabolic rate + activity costs) (standard metabolic rate)⁻¹] of 1–9 with deviations >100% during a simulated year. These deviations are of key importance to differences in the growth rate of individual simulated roach.     

Leading indicators of mosquito-borne disease elimination

Mosquito-borne diseases contribute significantly to the global disease burden. High-profile elimination campaigns are currently underway for many parasites, e.g., Plasmodium spp., the causal agent of malaria. Sustaining momentum near the end of elimination programs is often difficult to achieve and consequently quantitative tools that enable monitoring the effectiveness of elimination activities after the initial reduction of cases has occurred are needed. Documenting progress in vector-borne disease elimination is a potentially important application for the theory of critical transitions. Non-parametric approaches that are independent of model-fitting would advance infectious disease forecasting significantly. In this paper, we consider compartmental Ross-McDonald models that are slowly forced through a critical transition through gradually deployed control measures. We derive expressions for the behavior of candidate indicators, including the autocorrelation coefficient, variance, and coefficient of variation in the number of human cases during the approach to elimination. We conducted a simulation study to test the performance of each summary statistic as an early warning system of mosquito-borne disease elimination. Variance and coefficient of variation were highly predictive of elimination but autocorrelation performed poorly as an indicator in some control contexts. Our results suggest that tipping points (bifurcations) in mosquito-borne infectious disease systems may be foreshadowed by characteristic temporal patterns of disease prevalence.     

Population persistence in river networks

Organisms inhabiting river systems contend with downstream biased flow in a complex tree-like network. Differential equation models are often used to study population persistence, thus suggesting resolutions of the ‘drift paradox’, by considering the dependence of persistence on such variables as advection rate, dispersal characteristics, and domain size. Most previous models that explicitly considered network geometry artificially discretized river habitat into distinct patches. With the recent exception of Ramirez (J Math Biol 65:919–942, 2012), partial differential equation models have largely ignored the global geometry of river systems and the effects of tributary junctions by using intervals to describe the spatial domain. Taking advantage of recent developments in the analysis of eigenvalue problems on quantum graphs, we use a reaction–diffusion–advection equation on a metric tree graph to analyze persistence of a single population in terms of dispersal parameters and network geometry. The metric graph represents a continuous network where edges represent actual domain rather than connections among patches. Here, network geometry usually has a significant impact on persistence, and occasionally leads to dramatically altered predictions. This work ranges over such themes as model definition, reduction to a diffusion equation with the associated model features, numerical and analytical studies in radially symmetric geometries, and theoretical results for general domains. Notable in the model assumptions is that the zero-flux interior junction conditions are not restricted to conservation of hydrological discharge.     

Competition for space in a heterogeneous environment

We consider effects of competition for space in a heterogeneous environment, making use of nonlinear interaction-diffusion equations. Competition for space is assumed to mean mutual repulsive interactions that force other individuals to disperse from a crowded region. In other words, we are concerned with density-dependent dispersal forced by population pressures. Spatial heterogeneity is incorporated in the growth rates, and the environment is assumed to have a favorable habitat for two populations surrounded by largely hostile regions. Space-independent migration rates are assumed. We ignore the usual density-dependence in the growth rates to focus our attention on density-dependence in the migration rates. Our main conclusion is that two populations can coexist if the interspecific repulsive forces are weaker than the intraspecific ones. It is also emphasized that density-dependent dispersal in a heterogeneous environment is not always a stabilizing agent, and that either of two populations may become extinct by competition for space. Finally, the resemblance of our results to those from Lotka-Volterra competition equations is suggested.     

The evolution of recombination in a heterogeneous environment

Most models describing the evolution of recombination have focused on the case of a single population, implicitly assuming that all individuals are equally likely to mate and that spatial heterogeneity in selection is absent. In these models, the evolution of recombination is driven by linkage disequilibria generated either by epistatic selection or drift. Models based on epistatic selection show that recombination can be favored if epistasis is negative and weak compared to directional selection and if the recombination modifier locus is tightly linked to the selected loci. In this article, we examine the joint effects of spatial heterogeneity in selection and epistasis on the evolution of recombination. In a model with two patches, each subject to different selection regimes, we consider the cases of mutation-selection and migration-selection balance as well as the spread of beneficial alleles. We find that including spatial heterogeneity extends the range of epistasis over which recombination can be favored. Indeed, recombination can be favored without epistasis, with negative and even with positive epistasis depending on environmental circumstances. The selection pressure acting on recombination-modifier loci is often much stronger with spatial heterogeneity, and even loosely linked modifiers and free linkage may evolve. In each case, predicting whether recombination is favored requires knowledge of both the type of environmental heterogeneity and epistasis, as none of these factors alone is sufficient to predict the outcome.     

Kinetic behavior of heterogeneous populations in completely mixed reactors

The kinetic behavior of heterogeneous microbial populations was studied in a continuous flow completely mixed reactor operated at various dilution rates. Glucose was used as the growth-limiting nutrient. The physiological growth parameters for cells harvested from continuous flow reactors were determined using batch experiments. It, was found that the growth parameters, maximum growth rate (μ_m), saturation constant (k_s), and cell yield (Y) vary for each dilution rate, and cannot be considered as precise constants in depicting the kinetic behavior of heterogeneous populations. In addition, it was found that the yield coefficients obtained from batch experiments were always lower than those obtained from continuous flow experiments. Levels of substrate and biological solids calculated for different dilution rates using growth constants from batch experiments did not agree with the experimental values observed in steady-state experiments. However, when the yield values from, the continuous flow experiments were used in conjunction with batch values for μ_m and k_s the theoretical and experimental dilute-out curves agreed fairly closely (within the range needed for engineering prediction) until the culture began to wash out of the unit. In general, the data substantiated the use of the single phase relationship between growth rate and substrate concentration described by the Monod equation, μ = μ_mS/(k_s + s).     

Population dynamics in a cyclic environment: consequences of cyclic food abundance on tawny owl reproduction and survival

1. Understanding which factors regulate population dynamics may help us to understand how a population would respond to environmental change, and why some populations are declining.
2. In southern Finland, vole abundance shows a three-phased cycle of low, increase and decrease phases, but these have been fading out in recent years. During five such cycles (1981–1995), all tawny owls Strix aluco were censused in a 250-km² study area, and their reproduction and survival were monitored.
3. Males and females showed similar dynamics, but experienced breeders recruited more offspring and had higher survival than first breeders. Offspring recruitment, but not survival of breeding individuals varied in accordance with vole abundance.
4. The population's numerical response to prey abundance was primarily due to first-breeding individuals entering the population in the increase phase when immigration was the highest. First-breeding birds were younger, but experienced breeders were older in more favourable vole years.
5. A stage-specific matrix population model integrating survival and fecundity showed that, despite obvious variation in fecundity between vole cycle phases, this variation had limited importance for overall tawny owl population dynamics, but that the survival of experienced breeders during the low phase is most important for population growth.
6. Model and data agreed that the vole cycle drives the dynamics of this avian predator by limiting the recruitment of new breeders during the low phase. Population dynamics hence differ not only from the classic example of the species in a more temperate region in the UK where the number of territories is stable across years, but also from the dynamics of other avian vole predators in Fennoscandia where the recurring crash in vole abundance drastically lowers adult survival thereby creating vacancies.     

Population diffusion in a two-patch environment

A model of a single-species population diffusing in a two-patch environment is proposed. It is shown that there exists a positive, monotonic, continuous steady-state solution with continuous flux, in the cases of both reservoir and no-flux boundary conditions, that is asymptotically stable. In the case of patches with equal carrying capacities, it is shown that the uniform steady state is globally asymptotically stable.