A Regional Multiple Stressor Risk Assessment of the Codorus Creek Watershed Applying the Relative Risk Model

The relative risk model (RRM) used in Port Valdez, AK, and in Oregon's Willamette/McKenzie Watershed was applied to the Codorus Creek Watershed in south central Pennsylvania. The assessment evaluated the relative risk model for its applicability for ranking ecological risks within the Codorus Creek Watershed. The Codorus Creek Watershed approach included ranking stressors and habitats for regions within the watershed. Geographical Information Systems were vital in compiling and comparing stressor and habitat spatial data from regions in the watershed. The risk of ecological impacts to degrade assessment endpoints were calculated and ranked by quantitatively determining the interactions of the stressors and habitats as defined in the conceptual site model. Uncertainty assessment was conducted and the impact upon the relative ranks and risk conclusions evaluated. To determine regional risks, risk management information was gathered identifying areas to be protected, areas of high stress, and areas where additional information is needed. The results supported the applicability of the RRM and suggested areas and stressors for restoration efforts in the Codorus Creek Watershed. Two critical sets of conclusions were drawn from the assessment. First, in the Codorus Creek Watershed, the most significant stressor is agriculture land use, the most significantly impacted endpoint is water quality, and the most vulnerable habitats are those for macroinvertebrates and warm-water fish. Second, this risk assessment demonstrates the feasibility of using the RRM for assessing risk from multiple stressors on habitats with multiple assessment endpoints in an eastern watershed.     

2022年冬奥会崇礼赛区多重压力下生态风险评价

冬奥会这类重大体育赛事对举办城市的经济转型、城市功能升级、竞争力提升等方面具有助推效应,而其带来的生态影响也不容小觑。近年随着赛事规模的不断扩大和户外场馆的建设,冬奥会导致的生态风险愈加突出。然而,对于规模大、历时长的冬奥会复杂生态风险目前还缺乏定量评价方法。研究旨在探讨一种区域生态风险评价方法,即相对风险模型,并基于地理信息系统（GIS）定量评价冬奥会赛前准备阶段多重压力下的生态风险。选择2022年冬奥会崇礼赛区为案例区,构建压力-生境-终点三大要素组成的相对风险模型,将整个崇礼划为6个风险分区,辨识了冬奥会赛前阶段包括各种人类生产、建设活动和自然因素的11类压力（威胁）、6类生境和4个评价终点,并确定了压力和生境的分级标准。压力分级评价结果显示,道路和交通活动的得分最高,得分最低的是火灾。生境相对等级评价表明,河流栖息地的得分最高,得分最低的是湿地与景区滑雪场。从不同生态终点得分看,生物多样性的风险最高,娱乐休闲风险最低。总体区域风险评价表明,VI区四台嘴乡冬奥场馆核心区的风险得分最高,而风险最低的为III区,包括石嘴子乡和驿马图乡。最后,对相对风险评价的不确定性进行分析,并讨论其优缺点。总之,尽管存在不确定性,相对方法模型仍被认为是评估和优先考虑多个资产的多重压力风险的稳健方法,也是决策者确定管理行动优先级的有用筛选工具。研究证明了相对风险模型方法评估2022年冬奥会主办地风险的可行性,研究结果明确了崇礼区恢复工作的重点区域和压力,对冬奥会的可持续管理和地方发展具有重要参考价值。     

A Bayesian Approach to Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Applied to the Upper Grande Ronde Watershed,Oregon

We present a Bayesian network model based on the ecological risk assessment framework to evaluate potential impacts to habitats and resources resulting from wildfire, grazing, forest management activities, and insect outbreaks in a forested landscape in northeastern Oregon. The Bayesian network structure consisted of three tiers of nodes: landscape disturbances, habitats, and the ecological resources or endpoints of interest to land managers. Nodes at each tier were linked to lower nodes if ecological and spatial relationships existed between them. All parameters had four potential discrete states: zero, low, medium, and high. Our model reliably predicted probable risk to habitats and endpoints from natural and anthropogenic disturbances. The disturbances most likely to transform habitats and effect ecological resources were forest management and wildfire. Of the six habitats, moist forest (characterized by Douglas fir and grand fir) was found to be at greatest risk of ecological impacts. The management endpoint with the highest likelihood of impact was historical range of variability (HRV) for salmon habitat, followed by recreation (hunting native ungulates) and HRV wildfire. We found that the Bayesian approach to ecological risk assessment was a useful method to assess potential impacts to ecological resources resulting from forest management and natural disturbances.     

Using Ecological Risk Assessment Principles in a Source Water Protection Assessment

It has become increasingly common to apply ecological risk assessment (ERA) principles to watershed and regional scale environmental management. This article describes the application of watershed ERA principles to the development of a source water protection assessment and a strategic watershed management plan. The primary focus was on the protection of drinking water quality, a concern typically addressed by human health risk assessors. The approach emphasizes adaptations to the problem formulation phase of ERA (defining assessment endpoints, developing conceptual models and an analysis plan) suitable for watershed management planning in a multi-objective, multi-stressor context. Physical, chemical, and biological attributes were selected for primary drinking water quality assessment endpoints, and coupled with additional assessment endpoints relevant to other environmental and social management objectives. Conceptual models helped the planning team to better understand and communicate the multiple natural and human stressors in the watershed and the causal pathways by which they affected drinking water. The article provides an example of the types of adaptations that can make ERA principles suitable for watershed management related to human health goals, and illustrates the efficiency of integrating health and ecological assessments.     

Ecological Risk Assessment of China's Freshwater Ecosystems Applying the Relative Risk Model: Toward an Ecosystem-Based Water Management in China

The relative risk model (RRM) was applied to evaluate the ecological risk characterization of the freshwater ecosystems in China, from both overall and region-specific levels. Ten large-scale river basins (further broken into 15 risk regions) in China were chosen as the study objects; 10 sources, two habitats, and seven endpoints were identified as risk components. The results reveal the status of ecosystem conditions, key ecological risk issues, and the spatial heterogeneity of the freshwater ecosystems in China. The policy implications for the ecosystem-based water management contained in the results are discussed. The results obtained in this article provide a deeper understanding of the ecological risk characterization of the freshwater ecosystems in China, and aid in promoting the applications of the RRM as the tool for ecosystem-based water management.     

Ten Years of the Relative Risk Model and Regional Scale Ecological Risk Assessment

It has been 10 years since the publication of the relative risk model (RRM) for regional scale ecological risk assessment. The approach has since been used successfully for a variety of freshwater, marine, and terrestrial environments in North America, South America, and Australia. During this period the types of stressors have been expanded to include more than contaminants. Invasive species, habitat loss, stream alteration and blockage, temperature, change in land use, and climate have been incorporated into the assessments. Major developments in the RRM have included the extensive use of geographical information systems, uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo techniques, and its application to retrospective assessments to determine causation. The future uses of the RRM include assessments for forestry and conservation management, an increasing use in invasive species evaluation, and in sustainability. Developments in risk communication, the use of Bayesian approaches, and in uncertainty analyses are on the horizon.     

Air pollution and watershed research in the central Sierra Nevada of California: nitrogen and ozone

Maintaining healthy forests is the major objective for the Forest Service scientists and managers working for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Air pollution, specifically ozone (O3) and nitrogenous (N) air pollutants, may severely affect the health of forest ecosystems in the western U.S. Thus, the monitoring of air pollution concentration and deposition levels, as well as studies focused on understanding effects mechanisms, are essential for evaluation of risks associated with their presence. Such information is essential for development of proper management strategies for maintaining clean air, clean water, and healthy ecosystems on land managed by the Forest Service. We report on two years of research in the central Sierra Nevada of California, a semi-arid forest at elevations of 1100-2700 m. Information on O3 and N air pollutants is obtained from a network of 18 passive samplers. We relate the atmospheric N concentration to N concentrations in streams, shallow soil water, and bulk deposition collectors within the Kings River Experimental Watershed. This watershed also contains an intensive site that is part of a recent Forest Service effort to calculate critical loads for N, sulfur, and acidity to forest ecosystems. The passive sampler design allows for extensive spatial measurements while the watershed experiment provides intensive spatial data for future analysis of ecosystem processes.     

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Generic Ecological Assessment Endpoints

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined that one of the major impediments to the advancement and application of ecological risk assessment is doubt concerning appropriate assessment endpoints. The Agency's Risk Assessment Forum determined that the best solution to this problem was to define a set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). They are assessment endpoints that are applicable to a wide range of ecological risk assessments; because they reflect the programmatic goals of the Agency, they are applicable to a wide array of environmental issues, and they may be estimated using existing assessment tools. They are not specifically defined for individual cases; some ad hoc elaboration by users is expected. The GEAEs are not exhaustive or mandatory. Although most of the Agency's ecological decisions have been based on organism-level effects, GEAEs are also defined for populations, ecosystems, and special places.     

Regional ecological risk assessment using a relative risk model: A case study of the Darwin Harbour,Darwin, Australia

There are many proposed and ongoing commercial, industrial, and residential developments within the Darwin Harbour catchment in Northern Australia, to accommodate the projected population growth over the next 20 years. Hence, it is necessary to ensure the balance between these developments and ecosystem conservation. We evaluated ecological risk for the Darwin Harbour using a relative risk model (RRM). The catchment was divided into 22 risk regions based on small catchment boundaries and their homogeneity. Through the RRM, we ranked and summed the stressors and habitats within regions. The interaction between stressors and habitats were modeled through exposure and effect filters. The ecological assessment endpoints were maintenance of the mangrove health and the maintenance of water quality. The risk regions—Myrmidon Creek, Blackmore River, Bleesers Creek, and Elizabeth River—showed the highest total relative risk for ecological assets. These risk regions had a high percentage cover of industrial, commercial, and residential areas; diffuse entry points; and climate change effects. Creek A, Sandy Creek, West Arm, and Pioneer Creek were the risk regions with lowest total relative risk scores. The RRM is a robust application that is suitable for a large geographic area where multiple stressors are of concern.     

太湖流域生态风险评价

随着城镇的急剧扩张和经济的快速增长,流域生态环境遭到极大冲击和破坏,致使生态系统出现资源退化、环境恶化与灾害风险加剧的趋势,生态环境面临前所未有的挑战.从复合生态系统入手,深入分析流域内各生态系统要素之间的相互作用与影响机制,综合考虑多风险源、多风险受体和生态终点共存情况下的风险大小,从风险源危险度、生境脆弱度及受体损失度三方面构建了流域生态风险评价技术体系,并选取太湖流域为实证区域,对太湖流域2000年、2008年两个时期生态风险的时空演化特征进行评价与分析.结果表明:太湖流域生态风险指数介于0.015-0.253之间,以中等和较低生态风险为主.至2008年,高、较高生态风险所占面积逐渐扩大,已由2000年的5.66％、13.42％增加至6.05％、18.42％,主要集中在流域北部的常州市区、江阴市大部分地区以及无锡市区.     

Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain,China

Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km². A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km², covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km², accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk.     

Conceptual Model Development for Invasive Species and a Regional Risk Assessment Case Study: The European Green Crab,Carcinus maenas,at Cherry Point,Washington, USA

The goal of this article was to generate a method of regional scale ecological risk assessment using an adaptation Relative Risk Model (RRM). As a case study we performed a quantitative, regional risk assessment of an invasive species, the European green crab (Carcinus maenas) at Cherry Point, Washington, USA. The conceptual model was modified from the RRM and incorporates the structure of the hierarchical patch dynamic paradigm. The ranks and filters were integrated to determine the relative contribution of each source of C. maenas to risk as well as the risk to selected biological endpoints, habitats and sub-regions for two source scenarios: (1) current conditions (2004) and (2) future conditions during an El Nino year. The results suggest that the habitat and endpoint with the greatest risk are the eelgrass habitat and the juvenile Dungeness crab, respectively. The Cherry Point subregion was identified as the area having the most risk in the first source scenario, while the Lummi Bay sub-region is most at risk during an El Nino event. The risk of impacts is substantially higher for all endpoints, habitats and sub-regions when El Nino–driven current dispersal is considered. The methodology applied in this case study can be modified and applied to determine the risk of introduction and impacts of other invasive species to the Strait of Georgia, Puget Sound, and other coastal areas.     

Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the USEPA. The U.S. Government has the right to retain a nonexclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright covering this article. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has recognized the need to develop a framework for human health risk assessment that puts a perspective on the approaches in practice throughout the Agency. In response, the USEPA's Risk Assessment Forum has begun the process of developing a framework for human health risk assessment. This paper provides some additional background to the previous review of the framework efforts and notes the Agency's extramural efforts to begin the process of integrating and harmonizing risk assessment approaches for all human health endpoints.     

褐纹甘蔗象风险分析及其风险管理

通过对褐纹甘蔗象在国内外的分布情况及国内寄主植物分布、适生范围、传播渠道、检疫管理措施等指标的定性和半定量的风险分析,得出其在我国属于中度危险的林业有害生物(其风险评估值为R=1.746),对我国种植面积广泛的棕榈科植物构成了较大的威胁。建议在有其寄主分布的省份将其列入林业检疫性有害生物省级补充名单进行管理,防止其在我国继续扩散危害,并提出了国内检疫管理的措施。     

基于景观格局的甘肃白龙江流域生态风险评价与管理

流域生态风险评价是流域生态保护与环境管理的重要研究内容.开展以人类活动为风险源的生态风险评价,揭示流域生态风险的空间变化规律,对于促进流域生态保护和环境管理及社会发展具有重要的指导意义.本文基于景观格局指数和生态环境脆弱度构建了流域生态风险综合指数,以甘肃白龙江流域2010年土地利用数据为基础,以ArcGIS和Fragstats软件为平台,通过空间采样和地统计空间插值得到白龙江流域生态风险的空间分布规律.结果表明：白龙江流域生态风险空间分布差异明显,总体而言,白龙江流域西北部和北部的生态风险高于流域的西部和南部山区;在白龙江流域各县区中,武都和宕昌县的生态风险较高,迭部县和文县的生态风险较低.今后应加强流域土地利用综合管理和人类活动调控,开展植被恢复和生态重建,降低不合理人为干扰的生态风险和危害,实现流域经济、社会与生态保护的“多赢”,促进区域可持续发展.     

Assessment of Threat Status and Management Effectiveness in Kakamega Forest, Kenya

To counteract an increasing biodiversity decline, parks and protected areas have been established worldwide. However, many parks lack adequate management to address environmental degradation. To improve management strategies simple tools are needed for an assessment of human impact and management effectiveness of protected areas. This study quantifies the current threats in the heavily fragmented and degraded tropical rainforest of Kakamega, western Kenya. We recorded seven disturbance parameters at 22 sites in differently managed and protected areas of Kakamega Forest. Our data indicate a high level of human impact throughout the forest with illegal logging being most widespread. Furthermore, logging levels appear to reflect management history and effectiveness. From 1933 to 1986, Kakamega Forest was under management by the Forest Department and the number of trees logged more than 20 years ago was equally high at all sites. Since 1986, management of Kakamega Forest has been under two different organizations, i.e. Forest Department and Kenya Wildlife Service. The number of trees logged illegally in the last 20 years was significantly lower at sites managed by the Kenya Wildlife Service. Finally, logging was lower within highly protected National and Nature Reserves as compared to high logging within the less protected Forest Reserves. Reflecting management effectiveness as well as protection status in Kakamega Forest, logging might therefore provide a valuable quantitative indicator for human disturbance and thus an important tool for conservation managers. Logging might be a valuable indicator for other protected areas, too, however, other human impact such as e.g. hunting might also prove to be a potential indicator.     

Risk assessment of land ecology on a regional scale: Application of the relative risk model to the mining city of Daye,China

The ecological risk assessment of land ecosystems plays a vital role in land environment protection and management in China. To identify the ecological impairment in land ecosystems, risk assessment of regional land ecology was conducted in Daye, a traditional mining city in Central China, using the relative risk model (RRM). The study area was divided into six sub-regions; and the sources, stressors, habitats, and end points of the impairment were identified. A conceptual model was built to represent the ecological interactions among risk components. Results showed the following: (1) The traditional iron–coal mining sub-region and the mineral processing sub-region exhibited high risk. (2) Mining was the largest risk source, followed by solid waste piling and urbanization. (3) Disappearance of habitats was the greatest risk stressor, followed by the accumulation of pollutants and heavy metals. (4) Among the eight identified habitats, the lake habitat was the most likely to be affected. (5) Health threats, soil contamination, and landscape aesthetic dysfunctions appeared to be the end points under the largest risk pressure. Finally, Monte Carlo analysis was used to evaluate the effects of uncertainty on risk model predictions. Our assessment model was proven to be generally valid for regional land ecology risk assessment.     

Metals that Drive Health-Based Remedial Decisions for Soils at U.S. Department of Defense Sites

This study was undertaken to establish which metals are most likely to drive the risk-based remedial decision-making process at those U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) sites that are affected by metals in site soils. Our approach combined queries of various databases, interviews with U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) experts in each Region, and communication with database administrators and DoD personnel. The databases that were used were comprehensive for DoD sites, yet sometimes contained inaccuracies. Metal concentration data for various DoD facilities were screened against established regulatory criteria for both human health and ecological endpoints. Results from this analysis were compared against the information gleaned from the interviews. This preliminary analysis indicates that the five metals that most frequently exceeded risk-based screening criteria for potential human health concerns at DoD sites, in descending order of frequency, are lead, arsenic, cadmium, chromium, and antimony. The metals that most frequently exceeded ecological screening criteria, in order, are lead, cadmium, mercury, zinc, arsenic, chromium, and selenium. Although the majority of USEPA personnel interviewed indicated that human health risk, rather than ecological endpoints, generally drives remedial decision-making, the data indicated that ecological screening thresholds were exceeded more often than human health standards.     

区域生态风险评价的关键问题与展望

区域生态风险评价具有多风险因子、多风险受体、多评价终点、强调不确定性因素以及空间异质性的特点,它与传统的生态风险评价在风险源、胁迫因子和评价尺度上具有明显区别。尝试建立了一个基于陆地生态系统的区域生态风险评价框架,同时针对目前区域生态风险评价的研究现状,指出不确定性分析、尺度外推难、评价指标不统一、评价标准不统一、风险因子筛选及优先排序、区域内污染物复合、水生过渡到陆生生态系统风险评价、特殊的人为因素等是目前区域生态风险评价存在的关键问题及难点所在,并提出解决这些问题可能所需的工具、手段和理论方法突破。最后指出区域生态风险观测与数据采集加工、区域生态风险指标体系的统一与整合、区域生态风险评价方法论、区域生态风险的空间分布特征与表达以及区域生态风险评价反馈与管理机制5个方面是区域生态风险评价未来的研究重点。     

Assessment of Human Health and Ecological Risks Posed by the Uses of Steel-Industry Slags in the Environment

Steel-industry slag, a co-product of iron and steel production, is produced and sold for use in a wide range of applications. A comprehensive study of the potential human health risks associated with the environmental applications (e.g., fill, roadbase, landscaping) of iron- and steel-making slag was performed using characterization data for 73 samples of slag collected from blast furnaces, basic oxygen furnaces, and electric arc furnaces. Characterization data were compared to regulatory health-based “screening” benchmarks to determine constituents of interest. Antimony, beryllium, cadmium, trivalent and hexavalent chromium, manganese, thallium, and vanadium were measured above screening levels and were assessed in an application-specific exposure assessment using standard U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk assessment methods. A stochastic analysis was conducted to evaluate the variability and uncertainty in the inhalation exposure and risk estimates, and the oral bioaccessibility of certain metals in the slag was quantified. The risk assessment found no significant hazards to human health as a result of the environmental applications of steel-industry slag. However, site-specific ecological risk assessment may be required for slag applications in and around small water bodies with limited dilution volume, because high pH and aluminum were found to leach at levels that may be harmful to aquatic life