Using stable isotope analysis to determine the winter moult extent in migratory birds: the complex moult of Savi's warblers Locustella luscinioides

Patterns of feather wear in birds captured in spring have traditionally been analysed to describe the extent of winter moult in long‐distance migrants. However, the interpretation of feather wear may be rendered extremely difficult due to long moult periods, by the progress of the season, and by the existence of complex moult patterns. Here, stable isotope analysis is used to determine the origin of the wing feather generations present in Savi's warblers Locustella luscinioides captured in Portugal. Carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen isotope ratios of feathers of known European origin differed significantly from those known to have grown in Africa. A discriminant analysis, in which 91.1% of the cross validated samples were correctly classified, was used to determine the origin of tail and wing feathers collected from birds caught when they returned to the breeding quarters. The interpretation of feather‐wear generally agreed with the stable isotope analysis, but some inconsistencies were identified. The extent of winter moult in Savi's warblers is described and its moult strategy discussed.     

Using stable isotope analysis to determine the winter moult extent in migratory birds: the complex moult of Savi's warblers Locustella luscinioides

Patterns of feather wear in birds captured in spring have traditionally been analysed to describe the extent of winter moult in long-distance migrants. However, the interpretation of feather wear may be rendered extremely difficult due to long moult periods, by the progress of the season, and by the existence of complex moult patterns. Here, stable isotope analysis is used to determine the origin of the wing feather generations present in Savi's warblers Locustella luscinioides captured in Portugal. Carbon, nitrogen and hydrogen isotope ratios of feathers of known European origin differed significantly from those known to have grown in Africa. A discriminant analysis, in which 91.1% of the cross validated samples were correctly classified, was used to determine the origin of tail and wing feathers collected from birds caught when they returned to the breeding quarters. The interpretation of feather-wear generally agreed with the stable isotope analysis, but some inconsistencies were identified. The extent of winter moult in Savi's warblers is described and its moult strategy discussed.     

Multikink quantile regression for longitudinal data with application to progesterone data analysis

Motivated by investigating the relationship between progesterone and the days in a menstrual cycle in a longitudinal study, we propose a multikink quantile regression model for longitudinal data analysis. It relaxes the linearity condition and assumes different regression forms in different regions of the domain of the threshold covariate. In this paper, we first propose a multikink quantile regression for longitudinal data. Two estimation procedures are proposed to estimate the regression coefficients and the kink points locations: one is a computationally efficient profile estimator under the working independence framework while the other one considers the within-subject correlations by using the unbiased generalized estimation equation approach. The selection consistency of the number of kink points and the asymptotic normality of two proposed estimators are established. Second, we construct a rank score test based on partial subgradients for the existence of the kink effect in longitudinal studies. Both the null distribution and the local alternative distribution of the test statistic have been derived. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods have excellent finite sample performance. In the application to the longitudinal progesterone data, we identify two kink points in the progesterone curves over different quantiles and observe that the progesterone level remains stable before the day of ovulation, then increases quickly in 5 to 6 days after ovulation and then changes to stable again or drops slightly.     

Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored data

We propose a semiparametric approach to the proportional hazards regression analysis of interval-censored data. An EM algorithm based on an approximate likelihood leads to an M-step that involves maximizing a standard Cox partial likelihood to estimate regression coefficients and then using the Breslow estimator for the unknown baseline hazards. The E-step takes a particularly simple form because all incomplete data appear as linear terms in the complete-data log likelihood. The algorithm of Turnbull (1976, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 38, 290-295) is used to determine times at which the hazard can take positive mass. We found multiple imputation to yield an easily computed variance estimate that appears to be more reliable than asymptotic methods with small to moderately sized data sets. In the right-censored survival setting, the approach reduces to the standard Cox proportional hazards analysis, while the algorithm reduces to the one suggested by Clayton and Cuzick (1985, Applied Statistics 34, 148-156). The method is illustrated on data from the breast cancer cosmetics trial, previously analyzed by Finkelstein (1986, Biometrics 42, 845-854) and several subsequent authors.     

Linking data to models: data regression

Mathematical models are an essential tool in systems biology, linking the behaviour of a system to the interactions between its components. Parameters in empirical mathematical models must be determined using experimental data, a process called regression. Because experimental data are noisy and incomplete, diagnostics that test the structural identifiability and validity of models and the significance and determinability of their parameters are needed to ensure that the proposed models are supported by the available data.     

Weighted rank regression for clustered data analysis

Summary .   We consider ranked-based regression models for clustered data analysis. A weighted Wilcoxon rank method is proposed to take account of within-cluster correlations and varying cluster sizes. The asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is established. A method to estimate covariance of the estimators is also given, which can bypass estimation of the density function. Simulation studies are carried out to compare different estimators for a number of scenarios on the correlation structure, presence/absence of outliers and different correlation values. The proposed methods appear to perform well, in particular, the one incorporating the correlation in the weighting achieves the highest efficiency and robustness against misspecification of correlation structure and outliers. A real example is provided for illustration.     

Joint regression analysis for discrete longitudinal data

Summary We introduce an approximation to the Gaussian copula likelihood of Song, Li, and Yuan (2009, Biometrics 65, 60–68) used to estimate regression parameters from correlated discrete or mixed bivariate or trivariate outcomes. Our approximation allows estimation of parameters from response vectors of length much larger than three, and is asymptotically equivalent to the Gaussian copula likelihood. We estimate regression parameters from the toenail infection data of De Backer et al. (1996, British Journal of Dermatology 134, 16–17), which consist of binary response vectors of length seven or less from 294 subjects. Although maximizing the Gaussian copula likelihood yields estimators that are asymptotically more efficient than generalized estimating equation (GEE) estimators, our simulation study illustrates that for finite samples, GEE estimators can actually be as much as 20% more efficient.     

Metabolite profile analysis: from raw data to regression and classification

Successful metabolic profile analysis will aid in the fundamental understanding of physiology. Here, we present a possible analysis workflow. Initially, the procedure to transform raw data into a data matrix containing relative metabolite levels for each sample is described. Given that, because of experimental issues in the technical equipment, the levels of some metabolites cannot be universally determined or that different experiments need to be compared, missing value estimation and normalization are presented as helpful preprocessing steps. Regression methods are presented in this review as tools to relate metabolite levels with other physiological properties like biomass and gene expression. As the number of measured metabolites often exceeds the number of samples, dimensionality reduction methods are required. Two of these methods are discussed in detail in this review. Throughout this article, practical examples illustrating the application of the aforementioned methods are given. We focus on the uncovering the relationship between metabolism and growth-related properties.     

Distribution-free regression analysis of grouped survival data

Methods based on regression models for logarithmic hazard functions, Cox models, are given for analysis of grouped and censored survival data. By making an approximation it is possible to obtain explicitly a maximum likelihood function involving only the regression parameters. This likelihood function is a convenient analog to Cox's partial likelihood for ungrouped data. The method is applied to data from a toxicological experiment.     

Mixture Markov regression model with application to mosquito surveillance data analysis

A mixture Markov regression model is proposed to analyze heterogeneous time series data. Mixture quasi‐likelihood is formulated to model time series with mixture components and exogenous variables. The parameters are estimated by quasi‐likelihood estimating equations. A modified EM algorithm is developed for the mixture time series model. The model and proposed algorithm are tested on simulated data and applied to mosquito surveillance data in Peel Region, Canada.     

Normalization and analysis of DNA microarray data by self-consistency and local regression

Background  

With the advent of DNA hybridization microarrays comes the remarkable ability, in principle, to simultaneously monitor the expression levels of thousands of genes. The quantiative comparison of two or more microarrays can reveal, for example, the distinct patterns of gene expression that define different cellular phenotypes or the genes induced in the cellular response to insult or changing environmental conditions. Normalization of the measured intensities is a prerequisite of such comparisons, and indeed, of any statistical analysis, yet insufficient attention has been paid to its systematic study. The most straightforward normalization techniques in use rest on the implicit assumption of linear response between true expression level and output intensity. We find that these assumptions are not generally met, and that these simple methods can be improved.     

Applications of multiple imputation to the analysis of censored regression data.

The first part of the article reviews the Data Augmentation algorithm and presents two approximations to the Data Augmentation algorithm for the analysis of missing-data problems: the Poor Man's Data Augmentation algorithm and the Asymptotic Data Augmentation algorithm. These two algorithms are then implemented in the context of censored regression data to obtain semiparametric methodology. The performances of the censored regression algorithms are examined in a simulation study. It is found, up to the precision of the study, that the bias of both the Poor Man's and Asymptotic Data Augmentation estimators, as well as the Buckley-James estimator, does not appear to differ from zero. However, with regard to mean squared error, over a wide range of settings examined in this simulation study, the two Data Augmentation estimators have a smaller mean squared error than does the Buckley-James estimator. In addition, associated with the two Data Augmentation estimators is a natural device for estimating the standard error of the estimated regression parameters. It is shown how this device can be used to estimate the standard error of either Data Augmentation estimate of any parameter (e.g., the correlation coefficient) associated with the model. In the simulation study, the estimated standard error of the Asymptotic Data Augmentation estimate of the regression parameter is found to be congruent with the Monte Carlo standard deviation of the corresponding parameter estimate. The algorithms are illustrated using the updated Stanford heart transplant data set.