The usefulness of semi‐solid medium in the isolation of highly virulent Leptospira strains from wild rats in an urban area of Fukuoka,Japan

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis. The importance of urban leptospirosis is recognized in Japan: urban rats carry pathogenic leptospires and people acquire these pathogens through contact with surface water or soil contaminated by the urine of the infected animals. To determine the current Leptospira carriage rate in urban rats, 29 wild rats were trapped in the central area of Fukuoka and strains isolated from their kidneys and urine analyzed. When semi‐solid Korthof's medium containing 0.1% agar was used for isolation, 72.2% and 30.8% of the kidney and urine cultures, respectively, were found to be Leptospira‐positive. The isolates belonged to Leptospira interrogans, and were classified into two groups (serogroups Pomona and Icterohaemorrhagiae) based on the results of gyrB sequence analysis and microscopic agglutination testing (MAT). Strains belonging to serogroup Icterohemorrhagiae grew well in liquid medium. On the other hand, serogroup Pomona isolates multiplied very little in liquid medium, but did grow in a semi‐solid medium. Although strains belonging to serogroup Pomona have not been recognized as native to Japan, this strain may be widely distributed in urban rats. Representative strains from each group were found to be highly pathogenic to hamsters. Our findings should serve as a warning that it is still possible to become infected with leptospires from wild rats living in inner cities of Japan. Furthermore, the use of semi‐solid medium for culture will improve the isolation rate of leptospires from the kidneys of wild rats.     

城市河流健康评价指标体系构建及其应用

健康的城市河流既能够维持其生态系统的自然运转,又能够满足城市社会经济的正常需求,还能够为人类提供休闲娱乐的场所。基于城市河流健康的内涵,构建出包含自然生态、社会经济和景观环境等3个方面24个指标的城市河流健康评价指标体系。以漓江市区段为例,通过建立基于层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型对其进行健康评价。结果表明:漓江市区段复合生态系统的评价结果为(0.2193,0.3004,0.3261,0.1137,0.0405),处于中健康状态;其自然生态子系统、社会经济子系统和景观环境子系统的健康状态分别为中、优和良;水量、防洪能力、鱼类多样性指数和底栖动物多样性是漓江市区段健康的主要影响因素。该评价指标体系可为其它城市河流的健康评价提供参考。     

Indicators for quantitative evaluation of the social services function of urban greenbelt systems: A case study of shenzhen,China

Existing ecological service assessments of urban green space have concentrated on natural environment, while research on the social services function remains underexplored. Taking Shenzhen as an example, this study starts with integrating the function of green space system with human needs. An indicator assessment technique that combines spatialization, rasterization and detailed of land ecological assessment was established with regard to the benefits of landscape aesthetics, function of disaster prevention and mitigation, and accessibility of park greenbelts. The results show that Shenzhen has very high recreational and cultural value, as the areas above medium level account for 66% of the city’s land area, and the recreational and cultural services are worth approximately 40.8million Yuan. Forest parks and comprehensive parks are important places to carry out social service function, particularly the disaster prevention and mitigation function, and the green spaces for disaster prevention and mitigation can be found in most of the disaster-prone areas. The accessibility of service shows a certain level of centrality, since the highest grade is concentrated in the central Bao’an, central Longgang, and the central part of the city. Based on the GIS overlay analysis, this study recognizes the distribution of essential patches, and constructs the structure of essential patches in urban green greenbelt systems by a combination of point, line, and surface elements. It shows the services of the Shenzhen greenbelt system have high potential for social integration, and this study also discusses the policy implication for macro decision-making. The assessment results objectively reflect multiple social services of the green space system in this region and provide a reference for the management, planning and construction of urban ecology in similar cities.     

Are house sparrow populations limited by the lack of cavities in urbanized landscapes? An experimental test

Current urban policies are associated with deep changes in urban structures, which may impoverish urban biodiversity. A major concern is the disappearance of nesting sites for wild vertebrate species living in urban areas. New urban structures without any cracks or cavities may especially preclude cavity nesters from breeding in cities and they may cause population declines. In that context, we experimentally investigated this question in an urban exploiter bird species (the house sparrow Passer domesticus), which is dramatically declining in most European cities. To test if the lack of cavities is limiting house sparrow populations in urban areas, we equipped 11 sites along an urbanization gradient with nest boxes and we then evaluated the rate of occupancy of these nest‐boxes. This urbanization gradient was characterized by very rural places (isolated farms) and moderately urbanized areas (town of medium size, i.e. 60 000 inhabitants). Surprisingly, rural nest boxes were more occupied than urban ones, suggesting that cavity availability is probably more constraining in rural areas relative to urban ones. Therefore, our study suggests that urban house sparrow populations are probably not constrained by a lack of nesting sites in medium size cities with urban designs similar to our city of interest (Niort, western France). This hypothesis definitely needs now to be tested in further urban landscapes (e.g. large cities and urban landscapes with other architecture and management policies).     

黔中喀斯特城市遗存自然山体景观格局时空演变——以安顺市为例

城市遗存自然山体是山地城市中珍贵而脆弱的生态资源,对于维持城市生态系统稳定发挥着不可替代的作用,然而近年来高强度的城市建设对其产生严重的干扰和胁迫。以安顺市建成区为研究区域,在空间信息技术支持下,综合运用景观格局指数法和缓冲区分析法,分别从城市景观格局动态、城市遗存自然山体景观动态及城-山交互作用3个方面,对近10年快速城市化背景下,安顺市城市遗存自然山体景观格局时空演变进行定量化研究,旨在揭示其对城市扩张的响应规律。结果表明：1）城市整体景观破碎度递增,斑块丰富度密度递减,景观多样性、均匀度、优势度呈波动性变化;2）城市遗存自然山体斑块数量、类型面积、景观优势度递增,斑块形状趋于规则化,连通性递减,聚集度先减后增;3）城-山交互作用明显,主要表现为城市遗存自然山体因城市建设持续受损缩减及其吸引城市建设;4）城市遗存自然山体500 m缓冲区内平均城市建设用地占比及其平均城市人工园林绿地占比均与山体缓冲区距离呈显著负相关,且不同等级城市遗存自然山体斑块与缓冲区内城市建设用地相关程度表现为小型斑块 > 中型斑块 > 较大型斑块 > 大型斑块,与缓冲区内城市人工绿化相关程度表现为中型斑块最高、较大型斑块最低,城市遗存自然山体对城市建设及其人工绿化明显具有吸引作用。解析快速城市化背景下城市遗存自然山体景观动态变化规律及其与城市建设之间的交互作用关系,为城市遗存自然山体后续科学规划管理提供决策支持与理论依据,也可为今后进一步深入开展以其为研究对象的科研活动提供前期基础。     

Influence of socio-economic status and television watching on childhood obesity in Kolkata

Obesity is fast becoming an epidemic among the urban children and it has its adverse effect on the status of health even during adulthood. In this paper an attempt is made to assess the percentage of obesity among 6–10 year children and assess the effect of different socio-economic variables and TV watching on childhood obesity. We restricted our study to primary school-going children who attended classes I–IV. The sample consisted of 5216 children from 20 different Bengali medium and English medium schools in Kolkata. Categorical logistic regression of obesity on the socio-economic factors namely type of medium school, religion, parent's education, duration of television watching etc., has been carried out. The categorical logistic regression shows the significant effect of some of the socio-economic or demographic variables including the duration of television watching on obesity. We have seen a positive association between obesity and TV watching and also between obesity and consumption of fast food. This calls for making the parents aware and taking action as early as possible.     

城市地表灰尘中重金属的来源、暴露特征及其环境效应

地表灰尘是城市环境重金属的“源”、“汇”载体,与环境质量和人类健康有着密切关系.分析了城市地表灰尘重金属污染研究的意义,综述了国内外城市地表灰尘重金属地球化学行为研究进展,包括地表灰尘重金属来源、暴露特征及其影响因素分析、环境效应等方面.提出应加强时间序列及小尺度微观研究;地理因素对地表灰尘中重金属暴露特征、环境效应的影响机理研究.     

京津冀城市群土地利用生态风险的时空变化分析

以京津冀城市群为研究区,基于1984、1990、2000、2005、2010和2015年土地利用数据,利用斑块密度、蔓延度和土地利用类型的主观权重构建土地利用生态风险指数,从而揭示京津冀城市群地区6个时间节点的土地利用生态风险空间分布特征。土地利用生态风险划分为5个等级:低风险区、较低风险区、中等风险区、较高风险区和高风险区,将较高风险区和高风险区定义为综合高风险区,然后计算其重心转移轨迹,从而探究土地利用生态综合高风险区的空间转移动态变化规律。结果表明在研究时段内:(1)研究区土地利用生态风险的总体分布规律为城市中心城区周边的土地利用生态风险逐渐加剧,非城市地区低于城市地区,且高风险区、较高风险区的面积呈增加趋势。(2)京津冀城市群13个地级市综合高风险区变化各不相同:北京市、天津市、唐山市和廊坊市的综合高风险区呈现出增加的趋势;承德市、张家口市、保定市、石家庄市、秦皇岛市、邯郸市和邢台市的综合高风险呈现出降低的趋势;而沧州市和衡水市几乎不变。(3)综合高风险区的重心转移方向基本分为三类:朝首都方向、朝东部海洋方向和自身发展方向,且重心转移方向与城市的规划、治理及发展方向联系密切。     

Multi-Scale Identification of Urban Landscape Structure Based on Two-Dimensional Wavelet Analysis: The Case of Metropolitan Beijing,China

Scale dependence is one of the major characteristics of landscape. Urban landscape is highly affected by human activities with a multi-scale structure, which makes the multi-scale identification of urban structure an obligation for urban spatial studies. Although there have been many previous studies on urban landscape structure, most of them have been conducted on a single scale, and the multi-scale effects of landscape patterns were rarely involved. Two-dimensional wavelet transforms can link spatial structures to scale and spatial locations, and maybe an effective method for the multi-scale analysis of landscape. In this paper, we applied two-dimensional discrete wavelet transform and wavelet variance to analyze the multi-scale spatial structure characteristics and the nested hierarchical structure of the metropolitan Beijing area. The results indicated that the spatial distribution and configuration of the patches were highly scattered at small scales, and the urban landscape exhibited a relatively complicated structure. At medium scales, a combination of the polycentric and sectorial structure was identified due to the prominence of dominant patches within each administrative district. At larger scales, the urban landscape pattern exhibits typical concentric ring characteristics. Two characteristic scales were detected by the wavelet variance in the south-north direction of the main urban zones, scale 4 (112m) and 8 (1792m) in Dongcheng District, scale 3 (56m) and 6 (448m) in Xicheng District, which were corresponding to the extent of middle-small blocks and large blocks respectively. One characteristic scale was detected in each of the suburb areas (Chaoyang, Haidian, and Fengtai District). The spatial structure of the main urban zones is more complex than that of the suburb areas, and it presents a typical hierarchical structure in the south-north direction. In general, the spatial structure of Beijing metropolitan area appears polycentric and concentric ring structure at large scales, the main urban area has nested hierarchies at different characteristic scales, and the wavelet method can effectively identify multi-scale characteristics of urban spatial structure.     

街区尺度城市内部动态度的量化——以深圳市为例

城市动态度反应城市土地利用/土地覆盖动态变化的剧烈程度,对其进行量化是理解城市景观变化和进行城市生态空间监管的基础。现有研究主要聚焦城市扩张引起的特定地类(如人工表面、植被等)的动态变化,缺乏对城市内部精细尺度上(如街区尺度)景观动态的研究。以深圳市为例,首先利用多等级道路数据划分街区,进而基于高分辨率卫星影像解译的土地覆盖数据,利用土地利用动态度和土地利用强度指数量化街区尺度城市内部动态度。研究结果表明:(1)深圳市城市内部动态度较高,2017—2018年期间,14.93%的街区发生了不同程度的变化,热点区域主要分布在南山区、宝安区、盐田区等。(2)街区的变化包括多种地类的转变,其中,林地转变为裸土最为常见,占比为12.59%。由城市更新引起的地类变化也较普遍,如其他不透水地表向裸土的转移和建筑到裸地的转变分别为6.20%、5.59%。此外,深圳市街区的土地利用强度也存在较大差异,表现为土地利用强度增加的街区多分布在城市外围,而土地利用强度降低的街区则多分布在城市内部。(3)街区动态度与街区大小之间呈现非线性关系,街区动态度随着街区面积的增大,先急剧下降,后趋于平缓。本研究揭示了深圳市城市内部街区尺度上土地覆盖的动态变化特征,可为城市规划和生态空间管理提供科学支撑。     

基于最小累积阻力模型的城镇土地空间重构——以广州市新塘镇为例

根据源-汇景观理论与生态系统服务理论,以城镇中心建设用地为扩展源,生态用地的生态系统服务价值贡献率为扩展阻力系数,对最小累积阻力模型(MCR)进行修正.基于此,模拟广州市新塘镇空间拓展过程,在保障生态安全格局的基础上,提出了重构城镇土地空间的优化路径.结果表明： 1988-2008年,模拟的城镇空间发展方向与新塘镇实际发展进程及发展强度吻合性良好;模拟结果将新塘镇空间划分为高阻力、较高阻力、中阻力和低阻力4个片区,各区面积分别为80.84、78.90、24.26、61.88 km²,城镇空间发展路径依次沿着低-中-较高-高阻力区进行;新塘镇生态适宜用地面积为159.74 km²,建设适宜用地面积为86.14 km²,生态冲突区面积为17.37 km²,生态冲突区主要分布在较高阻力区(10.38 km²)和高阻力区(6.99 km²).修正后的MCR可有效揭示新塘镇土地空间分配与空间冲突的关系,并能科学有效地判定城镇空间拓展最优路径.     

城市河流的景观生态学研究:概念框架

城市河流作为城市景观中一种重要的生态廊道,其功能的正常实现与否关系到整个城市的可持续发展。通过分析当前城市河流的研究概况,发现应用景观生态学原理对城市河流展开多尺度、多学科的综合研究是实现“自然-人类-水体”可持续发展的必然趋势。从景观生态学的角度出发,结合城市河流的特点,提出了更为综合的、景观水平上的城市河流研究的概念框架。特别针对景观生态学研究的核心问题,对城市河流的研究尺度、格局分析、干扰程度等重要方面进行了详细论述,以期在景观水平上构建城市河流的可持续发展预案。     

基于二元水循环效率提升的城市湿地修复策略

城市湿地对人地系统的水循环调节起着关键作用。随着城市的发展,水资源短缺问题日益突出,探讨湿地在缓解城市水资源危机中的作用具有重要意义。基于“自然-社会”二元水循环理论,综合分析了我国城市用水量在全国总用水量占比急剧增加的现状,以及城市水循环效率低下的重点问题;基于城市水循环途径的取水、输水、用水、排水和回水五个阶段,系统提出湿地的保护恢复有助于改善城市水资源利用状况,增强城市湿地空间优化配置和水资源可持续利用的协同效应;充分考虑城市生态空间整体优化及湿地布局,全面阐释在城市国土空间规划指导下,通过增加城市水循环中社会水回归容量和缩短社会水回归距离,提升城市水循环效率,充分发挥湿地生态工程对城市水循环优化的调控作用;最后,兼顾城市中长期规划发展的协调性、适应性,探讨了湿地保护修复以提升水循环效率的策略,包括多功能水源地建设、缩短汇水距离、多级净水、营建小微湿地以及构建自循环理念的再生系统等具体措施,为城市湿地资源空间规划的整体布局提供重要依据,对促进城市水资源可持续利用和建设人与自然和谐共生的韧性城市具有重要意义。     

Degradation of rural and urban great tit song: testing transmission efficiency

Acoustic signals play a fundamental role in avian territory defence and mate attraction. Several studies have now shown that spectral properties of bird song differ between urban and rural environments. Previously this has been attributed to competition for acoustic space as a result of low-frequency noise present in cities. However, the physical structure of urban areas may have a contributory effect. Here we investigate the sound degradation properties of woodland and city environments using both urban and rural great tit song. We show that although urban surroundings caused significantly less degradation to both songs, the transmission efficiency of rural song compared to urban song was significantly lower in the city. While differences between the two songs in woodland were generally minimal, some measures of the transmission efficiency of rural song were significantly lower than those of urban song, suggesting additional benefits to singing rural songs in this setting. In an attempt to create artificial urban song, we mimicked the increase in minimum frequency found several times previously in urban song. However, this did not replicate the same transmission properties as true urban song, suggesting changes in other song characteristics, such as temporal adjustments, are needed to further increase transmission of an avian signal in the city. We suggest that the structure of the acoustic environment, in addition to the background noise, plays an important role in signal adaptation.     

Use of remote sensing and geographical information systems to estimate green space surface-temperature change as a result of urban expansion

A combined approach of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS) was used in this study to identify the impact on urban surface radiant temperature (SRT) of urban green-space change. Urban SRT increases as green-space area is converted into non-green-space area. Also, well preserved green space and newly connected green space contribute to a decrease of the SRT. Seoul Metropolitan area is rapidly expanding. Existing urban SRT studies have, however, mainly been conducted for Seoul City. The most rapidly expanding area in Korea is now the Seoul suburban area, for example the Mt Gwanggyo area. Although changes of SRT and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as a result of land-use change have been measured in many other studies, the results in these studies were derived from data from different seasons. Also, these studies did not examine a newly expanding area. Considering these problems, the same seasonal multitemporal data were used in this study to derive the SRT change for the same season in different years. This study confirmed the importance of effective management and location of urban green space for urban SRT mitigation. Ultimately, the impact on urban SRT of urban green-space change should be regarded as an important factor in urban planning.     

Using biological traits to assess how urbanization filters plant species of small woodlands

Question: Which biological traits (persistence, regeneration, dispersion traits and resource requirements) may explain the distribution of woodland flora along an urban–rural gradient? Location: The study was carried out in three medium‐sized conurbations of north‐western France: Angers, Nantes and Rennes. Methods: We sampled the vegetation of 36 small woodlands of about 1.5 ha composed of non‐planted vegetation along an urban–rural gradient. We characterized the position of woodlands along the urban–rural gradient by examining adjacent land cover. By using an ordination analysis (RLQ), we analysed which traits out of –23 tested were related to the contrasted distribution of species along the urban–rural gradient. Results: Species that are more likely to be found in urban woodlands than rural woodlands have different persistence traits (higher specific leaf area, more often rosette or semi‐rosette form, less underground vegetative multiplication), resource requirements (affinity for base‐rich and fertile soils) and regeneration traits (short life‐span). Dispersion traits were not related to the distribution of species along the urban–rural gradient. Conclusions: Our approach identifies traits that can help to determine the vulnerability of forest species as a result of the environmental changes that follow urbanization. Limiting the influence of the urban environment on habitat quality (particularly disturbance and soil enrichment) is likely to be of major importance in maintaining the plant biodiversity in woodlands.     

Effects of urbanization intensity on forest structural-taxonomic attributes,landscape patterns and their associations in Changchun,Northeast China: Implications for urban green infrastructure planning

Understanding the associations between urbanization intensity and urban forest structural-taxonomic attributes is a central theme of urban ecology, biodiversity conservation and forest management for maximizing ecological services to design proper urban green infrastructure. By selecting a typical provincial capital city of Changchun as an example, the effects of urbanization intensity (low, medium and heavy urbanization as measured by impervious surface area, ISA) on landscape patterns and structural-taxonomic attributes of urban forests were investigated in this study. The results showed that the urban forest Patch Density (PD), Landscape Shape Index (LSI), Interspersion & Juxtaposition Index (IJI), Tree Density (TD), Canopy Density (CD), Species Richness (SR) and Species Diversity (H’ index) exhibited strictly monotonic increases with urbanization intensity, increasing by 162%, 60%, 44%, 37%, 50%, 85%, and 84% from low to heavy urbanization areas, respectively. In contrast, the forest Mean Euclidian Nearest Neighbor Distance (ENN-MN) and Health Condition grade (HC) monotonically decreased by 12% and 37%, respectively. Furthermore, regression analysis suggested that structural-taxonomic attributes were closely associated with forest-related landscape patterns, but urbanization intensity dramatically influenced these associations. Our findings highlight that the planning of urban green infrastructure, in particular, urban afforestation and associated management, should be different at different urbanization intensities. In low urbanization areas, low Total area (TA, forest area) requires construction of larger forest patches and the protection of large remnant trees, and TD and above ground biomass (AGB) could be increased by enhancing the Mean Fractal Dimension (FRAC-MN) and PD, respectively. In medium urbanization areas, the same increases in TD and AGB could be more effectively achieved by decreasing the IJI and Area-Weighted Mean Contiguity (CONTIG-MN). Moreover, in heavy urbanization areas, more attention should be paid to increasing forest patch aggregation and contiguity, and both tree diversity and evenness could be increased by enhancing the FRAC-MN index. Because these structural-taxonomic attributes are the basis of various forest ecological services, our findings indicate that regulation of some of these landscape metrics could improve urban forest services in Changchun.     

内蒙古兴安盟汉族体质调查

调查了内蒙古兴安盟乌兰浩特市320例城市汉族(男145人, 女175人)和突泉县太平乡514例乡村汉族(男256人, 女258人)的85项体质指标, 计算了32项指数及其分型。研究显示, 1)内蒙古兴安盟汉族的主要体质特征为:大多数人有上眼睑皱褶, 44.5%的人具蒙古褶,眼裂高度以窄、中型为主, 眼裂倾斜度以外高内低型最高; 鼻根高度以中、低型为主, 鼻基部多上翘或水平, 鼻梁侧面观多为直型, 鼻翼高度中等, 鼻孔最大径多横位或斜位; 上唇皮肤部高度多为中等型; 耳垂类型多为圆形、三角形; 黑发, 眼色褐色, 肤色黄或浅黄。男女均以特圆头型、高头型、中头型、狭鼻型、中面型、宽胸型、宽骨盆型、宽肩型及中肩型、长躯干型、亚短腿型居多。城市男女身高均以高型为主, 乡村男女身高中等或亚中等类型占优。2)兴安盟汉族城市人群的体质状况总体上优于乡村。3)兴安盟汉族的体质特征与蒙古族、回族、锡伯族等北方族群接近。     

Spatial analysis of urban material stock with clustering algorithms: A Northern European case study

A large share of construction material stock (MS) accumulates in urban built environments. To attain a more sustainable use of resources, knowledge about the spatial distribution of urban MS is needed. In this article, an innovative spatial analysis approach to urban MS is proposed. Within this scope, MS indicators are defined at neighborhood level and clustered with k‐mean algorithms. The MS is estimated bottom‐up with (a) material‐intensity coefficients and (b) spatial data for three built environment components: buildings, road transportation, and pipes, using seven material categories. The city of Gothenburg, Sweden is used as a case study. Moreover, being the first case study in Northern Europe, the results are explored through various aspects (material composition, age distribution, material density), and, finally, contrasted on a per capita basis with other studies worldwide. The stock is estimated at circa 84 million metric tons. Buildings account for 73% of the stock, road transport 26%, and pipes 1%. Mineral‐binding materials take the largest share of the stock, followed by aggregates, brick, asphalt, steel, and wood. Per capita, the MS is estimated at 153 metric tons; 62 metric tons are residential, which, in an international context, is a medium estimate. Denser neighborhoods with a mix of nonresidential and residential buildings have a lower proportion of MS in roads and pipes than low‐density single‐family residential neighborhoods. Furthermore, single‐family residential neighborhoods cluster in mixed‐age classes and show the largest content of wood. Multifamily buildings cluster in three distinct age classes, and each represent a specific material composition of brick, mineral binding, and steel. Future work should focus on megacities and contrasting multiple urban areas and, methodologically, should concentrate on algorithms, MS indicators, and spatial divisions of urban stock.     

京津冀城市群土地利用变化对地表径流的影响

城市化的显著特征之一是地表景观格局被人为改变,大量硬化地表覆盖、取代了原本自然或半自然的土地覆盖类型,极大地干扰了区域水文循环过程。其中,最直接的体现是对地表径流过程的影响。城市群作为当前我国城市化的重要模式,其聚集连片的扩张模式,对区域地表径流过程的干扰尤为严重。以京津冀特大城市群为研究区域,应用长期水文影响评价模型(L-THIA),以1980、1990、2000、2010、2015年5期土地利用数据、土壤数据以及1950—2015年逐日降雨数据为输入,模拟计算了不同土地利用/覆被格局对多年平均地表径流量的影响。结果表明,(1)经过率定的L-THIA模型能够较为准确地模拟京津冀城市群地区的地表径流分布特征,模型模拟误差在±10%内;(2)1980—2015年,京津冀城市群地区不透水地表面积急剧增加,其净增长值为12690.14 km~2。北京与天津等超大城市不透水地表面积增加最明显;(3)随着土地利用格局的变化,京津冀地区地表径流量呈逐年增长趋势。1980—2015年,京津冀城市群地区地表径流量的绝对增长值为17.84亿m~3,增幅11.83%。其中,1990—2000年及2010—2015年期间地表径流年均增长率较大,分别为0.36%与0.46%。对地表径流贡献较大的土地利用类型为耕地和不透水地表,其5期土地利用情景下的平均产流占比分别为35.38%、22.71%;(4)城市尺度上,不同城市的标准化年均径流深(NAARD)存在较大差异。天津、石家庄的产流能力较强,承德、衡水等城市的产流能力较弱,北京市的标准化年均径流深处于中等水平。另一方面,不同城市标准化年均径流深增长规律也存在较大差异。1980—2015年,天津市的NAARD增长最多,承德市增长最少,北京市的NAARD增长处于中等水平。本文对于京津冀城市群水文过程的时空演变研究以及国土空间优化指导具有参考意义。