Changes in trophic state and aquatic communities in high Arctic ponds in response to increasing goose populations

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Winter Fidelity and Apparent Survival of Lesser Snow Goose Populations in the Pacific Flyway

Abstract The Beringia region of the Arctic contains 2 colonies of lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) breeding on Wrangel Island, Russia, and Banks Island, Canada, and wintering in North America. The Wrangel Island population is composed of 2 subpopulations from a sympatric breeding colony but separate wintering areas, whereas the Banks Island population shares a sympatric wintering area in California, USA, with one of the Wrangel Island subpopulations. The Wrangel Island colony represents the last major snow goose population in Russia and has fluctuated considerably since 1970, whereas the Banks Island population has more than doubled. The reasons for these changes are unclear, but hypotheses include independent population demographics (survival and recruitment) and immigration and emigration among breeding or wintering populations. These demographic and movement patterns have important ecological and management implications for understanding goose population structure, harvest of admixed populations, and gene flow among populations with separate breeding or wintering areas. From 1993 to 1996, we neckbanded molting birds at their breeding colonies and resighted birds on the wintering grounds. We used multistate mark-recapture models to evaluate apparent survival rates, resighting rates, winter fidelity, and potential exchange among these populations. We also compared the utility of face stain in Wrangel Island breeding geese as a predictor of their wintering area. Our results showed similar apparent survival rates between subpopulations of Wrangel Island snow geese and lower apparent survival, but higher emigration, for the Banks Island birds. Males had lower apparent survival than females, most likely due to differences in neckband loss. Transition between wintering areas was low (<3%), with equal movement between northern and southern wintering areas for Wrangel Island birds and little evidence of exchange between the Banks and northern Wrangel Island populations. Face staining was an unreliable indicator of wintering area. Our findings suggest that northern and southern Wrangel Island subpopulations should be considered a metapopulation in better understanding and managing Pacific Flyway lesser snow geese. Yet the absence of a strong population connection between Banks Island and Wrangel Island geese suggests that these breeding colonies can be managed as separate but overlapping populations. Additionally, winter population fidelity may be more important in lesser snow geese than in other species, and both breeding and wintering areas are important components of population management for sympatric wintering populations.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.     

Evidence of Territoriality and Species Interactions from Spatial Point-Pattern Analyses of Subarctic-Nesting Geese

Quantifying spatial patterns of bird nests and nest fate provides insights into processes influencing a species’ distribution. At Cape Churchill, Manitoba, Canada, recent declines in breeding Eastern Prairie Population Canada geese (Branta canadensis interior) has coincided with increasing populations of nesting lesser snow geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) and Ross’s geese (Chen rossii). We conducted a spatial analysis of point patterns using Canada goose nest locations and nest fate, and lesser snow goose nest locations at two study areas in northern Manitoba with different densities and temporal durations of sympatric nesting Canada and lesser snow geese. Specifically, we assessed (1) whether Canada geese exhibited territoriality and at what scale and nest density; and (2) whether spatial patterns of Canada goose nest fate were associated with the density of nesting lesser snow geese as predicted by the protective-association hypothesis. Between 2001 and 2007, our data suggest that Canada geese were territorial at the scale of nearest neighbors, but were aggregated when considering overall density of conspecifics at slightly broader spatial scales. The spatial distribution of nest fates indicated that lesser snow goose nest proximity and density likely influence Canada goose nest fate. Our analyses of spatial point patterns suggested that continued changes in the distribution and abundance of breeding lesser snow geese on the Hudson Bay Lowlands may have impacts on the reproductive performance of Canada geese, and subsequently the spatial distribution of Canada goose nests.     

Seagrass (Zostera spp.) as food for brent geese (Branta bernicla): an overview

Brent geese (called brant in North America) are among the smallest and the most marine of all goose species, and they have very long migration routes between high Arctic breeding grounds and temperate wintering grounds. Like all other geese, brent geese are almost entirely herbivorous. Because of these ecological characteristics they have a high food demand and are strongly dependent on stopover sites to ”refuel” during the migration period. Three subspecies of brent geese are distributed around the Holarctic, forming seven populations with distinct migration routes. Most or all of these populations make heavy use of Zostera spp. during migratory stopovers on spring and/or autumn migration. Examples of Zostera stopover areas being used by large numbers of brent geese for several weeks each year are Izembek Lagoon (Alaska), lagoons in Baja California, the German/Danish Wadden Sea, the Golfe du Morbihan (France), British estuaries, and the White Sea (Western Russian Arctic). Brent geese feed on Zostera wherever they can, but they can only reach the plants at low tide or in shallow water. Changes in Zostera abundance affect brent goose distribution, and the ”wasting disease” affecting Atlantic Zostera stocks during the 1930s was at least partly responsible for a steep decline in brent goose population sizes on both sides of the Atlantic. While Zostera is of outstanding importance as food for brent geese, the impact of the geese on Zostera stocks seems to be less important – at many sites, the geese consume only a small amount of the available Zostera, or, if they consume more, the seagrass can regenerate fully until the following season. Received: 6 December 1998 / Received in revised form: 6 August 1999 / Accepted: 9 August 1999     

Effects of agricultural change on abundance, fitness components and distribution of two arctic-nesting goose populations

Intensification of agriculture since the 1950s has enhanced the availability, competitive ability, crude protein content, digestibility and extended growing seasons of forage grasses. Spilled cereal grain also provides a rich food source in autumn and in winter. Long‐distance migratory herbivorous geese have rapidly exploited these feeding opportunities and most species have shown expansions in range and population size in the last 50 years. Results of long‐term studies are presented from two Arctic‐breeding populations, the Svalbard pink‐footed goose and the Greenland white‐fronted goose (GWFG). GWFGs have shown major habitat shifts since the 1950s from winter use of plant storage organs in natural wetlands to feeding on intensively managed farmland. Declines in local density on, and abandonment of, unmodified traditional wintering habitat and increased reproductive success among those birds wintering on farmland suggest that density‐dependent processes were not the cause of the shift in this winter‐site‐faithful population. Based on enhanced nutrient and energy intake rates, we argue that observed shifts in both species from traditionally used natural habitats to intensively managed farmland on spring staging and wintering areas have not necessarily been the result of habitat destruction. Increased food intake rates and potential demographic benefits resulting from shifts to highly profitable foraging opportunities on increasingly intensively managed farmland, more likely explain increases in goose numbers in these populations. The geographically exploratory behaviour of subdominant individuals enables the discovery and exploitation of new winter feeding opportunities and hence range expansion. Recent destruction of traditional habitats and declines in farming at northern latitudes present fresh challenges to the well being of both populations. More urgently, Canada geese colonizing breeding and moulting habitats of white‐fronted geese in Greenland are further affecting their reproductive output.     

Seasonal pulses of migratory prey and annual variation in small mammal abundance affect abundance and reproduction by arctic foxes

We examined how large seasonal influxes of migratory prey influenced population dynamics of arctic foxes and how this varied with fluctuations in small mammal (lemming and vole) abundance—the main prey of arctic foxes throughout most of their range. Specifically, we compared how arctic fox abundance, breeding density and litter size varied inside and outside a large goose colony and in relation to annual variation in small mammal abundance. Information-theoretic model selection showed that (1) breeding density and fox abundance were 2–3 times higher inside the colony than they were outside the colony and (2) litter size, breeding density and annual variation in fox abundance in the colony tracked fluctuations in lemming abundance. The influence of lemming abundance on reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes outside the colony was inconclusive, largely because fox densities outside the colony were low, which made it difficult to detect such relationships. Lemming abundance was, thus, the main factor governing reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes in the colony, whereas seasonal influxes of geese and their eggs provided foxes with external subsidies that elevated breeding density and fox abundance above that which lemmings could support. This study highlights (1) the relative importance of migratory prey and other foods on the abundance and reproduction by local consumers and (2) how migratory animals function as vectors of nutrient transfer between distant ecosystems such as Arctic environments and wintering areas by geese thousands of kilometres to the south.     

Keeping up with early springs: rapid range expansion in an avian herbivore incurs a mismatch between reproductive timing and food supply

Within three decades, the barnacle goose population wintering on the European mainland has dramatically increased in numbers and extended its breeding range. The expansion has occurred both within the Arctic as well as by the colonization of temperate areas. Studies of performance of individuals in expanding populations provide information on how well species can adapt to novel environments and global warming. We, therefore, studied the availability of high quality food as well as timing of reproduction, wing moult, fledgling production and postfledging survival of individually marked geese in three recently established populations: one Arctic (Barents Sea) and two temperate (Baltic, North Sea). In the Barents Sea population, timing of hatching was synchronized with the peak in food availability and there was strong stabilizing selection. Although birds in the Baltic and North Sea populations bred 6–7 weeks earlier than Arctic birds, timing of hatching was late in relation to the peak in food availability, and there was moderate to strong directional selection for early breeding. In the Baltic, absolute timing of egg laying advanced considerably over the 20‐year study period, but advanced little relative to spring phenology, and directional selection on lay date increased over time. Wing moult of adults started only 2–4 weeks earlier in the temperate populations than in the Arctic. Synchronization between fledging of young and end of wing moult decreased in the temperate populations. Arctic‐breeding geese may gradually accumulate body stores from the food they encounter during spring migration, which allows them to breed relatively early and their young to use the peak of the Arctic food resources. By contrast, temperate‐breeding birds are not able to acquire adequate body stores from local resources early enough, that is before the quality of food for their young starts to decrease. When global temperatures continue to rise, Arctic‐breeding barnacle geese might encounter similar problems.     

Patch choice of avian herbivores along a migration trajectory–From Temperate to Arctic

Migratory waterfowl species seem to track temporal and spatial pulses of optimal forage availability on their way from temperate wintering to arctic breeding sites. In order to unravel the relative contribution of forage quality and forage biomass to foraging choices in avian herbivores, we experimentally manipulated biomass and quality of main forage plants through fertilisation and grazing exclusion at three sites along the flyway of barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Fertilisation increased the nitrogen content of the forage and grazing exclusion increased biomass levels. Manipulated plots were offered to wild geese in a random block experimental design and goose visitation was measured through dropping counts. At all sites there was a trend towards a higher preference of plots with increased quality and average biomass above plots with an average quality and increased biomass. Generally, geese preferred plots with highest standing crop of nitrogen. The numerical response of the geese to forage changes was supported by behavioural observations at the Baltic site. We conclude that for migrating barnacle geese the bottlenecks in the standing crop of nitrogen appear to lie in the limited biomass availability at the Baltic stopover site and the limited nutrient content of food in the Arctic breeding site, restricting the potential nutrient intake on these sites.     

Goose grazing influences the fine-scale structure of a bryophyte community in arctic wetlands

Herbivores can shape plant communities, especially in the Arctic. We tested the role of geese for structuring bryophyte communities at fine spatial scales in the arctic tundra by excluding them from 4 × 4 m areas. We surveyed the presence and absence of bryophyte species in quadrats (10 × 10 cm) divided into 25 cells outside and inside these exclosures, after 5 and 11 years of treatment. Species richness per cell (4 cm²) was higher in the presence of geese, especially after 11 years of treatment, while geese had little effect on richness at larger scales (i.e. quadrat and whole exclosure). The slope of the species–area relationship within quadrats was consequently shallower outside exclosures. Our results further suggest that the community outside the exclosures was more variable in space and time than that inside the exclosures. We conclude that goose foraging activity promotes the coexistence of bryophyte species at the centimetre scale.     

Spring feeding by pink-footed geese reduces carbon stocks and sink strength in tundra ecosystems

Tundra ecosystems are widely recognized as precious areas and globally important carbon (C) sinks, yet our understanding of potential threats to these habitats and their large soil C store is limited. Land‐use changes and conservation measures in temperate regions have led to a dramatic expansion of arctic‐breeding geese, making them important herbivores of high‐latitude systems. In field experiments conducted in high‐Arctic Spitsbergen, Svalbard, we demonstrate that a brief period of early season belowground foraging by pink‐footed geese is sufficient to strongly reduce C sink strength and soil C stocks of arctic tundra. Mechanisms are suggested whereby vegetation disruption due to repeated use of grubbed areas opens the soil organic layer to erosion and will thus lead to progressive C loss. Our study shows, for the first time, that increases in goose abundance through land‐use change and conservation measures in temperate climes can dramatically affect the C balance of arctic tundra.     

西藏南部羊卓雍错水鸟群落及斑头雁活动区域特征

2009年4月至2010年1月,对西藏南部羊卓雍错的水鸟资源状况进行了调查。采用定点观察的方法,沿湖选择了24个观察点,分别在繁殖前期、中期和后期,以及秋季和冬季进行了6次调查。采用核密度分析(Kernel analysis)的方法,对两只卫星跟踪斑头雁(Anser indicus)的活动区进行了分析。调查期间,记录到水鸟32种31044只,隶属于6目10科。雁鸭类和鸥类分别占水鸟总数73.9%和19.1%,主要是斑头雁、赤嘴潜鸭(Rhodonessa rufina)、赤麻鸭(Tadorna ferruginea)、棕头鸥(Larus brunnicephalus)等。水鸟多样性较高的季节是春秋迁徙季节。羊卓雍错夏季主要的繁殖种群是斑头雁和棕头鸥,也有少量黑颈鹤(Grus nigricollis)的繁殖个体;冬季主要物种是赤嘴潜鸭,经常聚集在融化的冰面上。春季斑头雁的数量增加趋势较为明显;进入繁殖期后,斑头雁处于孵卵阶段,繁殖种群的数量达到2000余只;繁殖后期,斑头雁换羽结束,成鸟带领幼鸟在鸟岛附近的湖边取食,此时观察到斑头雁的数量又有明显的增加;秋季斑头雁的南迁致使种群数量呈下降趋势;冬季许多斑头雁从北方如青海湖等地迁来越冬使得种群数量有所增加,多分布于湖西浪卡子县城附近的沼泽湿地和湖南部的绒波臧布河流的入口处。卫星跟踪结果表明,羊卓雍错是青海湖繁殖的斑头雁重要的越冬地之一,湖西部沼泽湿地和湖南部的河流入口处是其主要活动区域,而且该湖与雅鲁藏布江河谷之间通过斑头雁的往来移动存在着联系,因而是西藏南部禽流感监测的重要地点。     

Potential for an Arctic‐breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long‐distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway.     

Goose-mediated nutrient enrichment and planktonic grazer control in arctic freshwater ponds

A dramatic increase in the breeding population of geese has occurred over the past few decades at Svalbard. This may strongly impact the fragile ecosystems of the Arctic tundra because many of the ultra-oligotrophic freshwater systems experience enrichment from goose feces. We surveyed 21 shallow tundra ponds along a gradient of nutrient enrichment based on exposure to geese. Concentrations of total phosphorus (P) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in the tundra ponds ranged from 2–76 to 2–23 μg l⁻¹ respectively, yet there was no significant increase in phytoplankton biomass (measured as chlorophyll a; range: 0.6–7.3 μg l⁻¹) along the nutrient gradient. This lack of response may be the result of the trophic structure of these ecosystems, which consists of only a two-trophic level food chain with high biomasses of the efficient zooplankton grazer Daphnia in the absence of fish and scarcity of invertebrate predators. Our results indicate that this may cause a highly efficient grazing control of phytoplankton in all ponds, supported by the fact that large fractions of the nutrient pools were bound in zooplankton biomass. The median percentage of Daphnia–N and Daphnia–P content to particulate (sestonic) N and P was 338 and 3009%, respectively, which is extremely high compared to temperate lakes. Our data suggest that Daphnia in shallow arctic ponds is heavily subsidized by major inputs of energy from other food sources (bacteria, benthic biofilm), which may be crucial to the persistence of strong top–down control of pelagic algae by Daphnia.     

Sharing habitat: Effects of migratory barnacle geese density on meadow breeding waders

• 1.Following targeted conservation actions most goose populations have increased. The growing goose populations caused an increase in human-wildlife conflicts and have the potential to affect nature values. As meadow birds, including meadow-breeding waders, were declining throughout Western Europe, the possible negative effect of rising numbers of foraging barnacle geese on their breeding success has been questioned.
• 2.We used GPS-transmitter data to measure the density of foraging barnacle geese during daylight hours. Using dynamic Brownian Bridge Movement Models (dBBMM), we investigated the effect of barnacle goose density on the territory distribution of five wader species, and on nest success of the locally common Northern lapwing. We used model selection methods to identify the importance of barnacle goose density related to other environmental factors.
• 3.Our results showed an insignificant positive association between barnacle goose density and nest territory density of the Northern lapwing and common redshank. Barnacle goose density had no influence on territory selection of godwit, oystercatcher and ringed plover. We did, however, find a negative correlation between barnacle geese density and the nest success of the Northern Lapwing.
• 4.We infer that either barnacle goose foraging leads to improved territory conditions for some wader species, or that both barnacle geese and waders prefer the same type of habitat for foraging and nesting. Higher barnacle goose density was correlated with fewer Northern lapwing nests being successful.
• 5.Synthesis and application: Experimental research is needed to disentangle the causal chain, but based on our observational findings, we suggest to increase water logging that may attract both barnacle geese and wader species. Further investigation on the effects of barnacle geese on wader species is necessary to identify the cause of the negative correlation between barnacle geese density and nest success of lapwings; nest protection experiments could give further insight.

     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

THE COMPOSITION OF GOOSE POPULATIONS

Detailed knowledge of changes in the size and composition of goose populations is of importance in conservation. Long-term inventories of goose numbers have so far been made only in the United States of America. American and European studies of movement, and of survival, have chiefly depended on the recovery of ringed geese. It has slowly been realised that direct observations of goose flocks can provide much of the information needed to determine the age-structure of flocks, annual breeding success and mortality. Studies of goose populations employing all the available techniques are now being actively pursued in Britain as well as North America. Some examples are briefly discussed.     

Relationship between wild greylag and European domestic geese based on mitochondrial DNA

The origins of the European domestic goose are uncertain. The available information comes from archaeological findings and historical literature, but genetic evidence has hitherto been scarce. The domestic goose in Europe is derived from the greylag goose (Anser anser), but it is not known where the initial domestication took place and which of the two subspecies of greylag goose was ancestral. We aimed to determine the amount and geographical distribution of genetic diversity in modern populations of greylag geese as well as in different breeds of the domestic goose to make inferences about goose domestication. We studied DNA sequence variation in the mitochondrial control region of greylag geese from multiple populations across Europe and western Asia as well as specimens of domestic geese representing 18 modern breeds and individuals not belonging to any recognised breed. Our results show notable differences in genetic diversity between different greylag goose populations and the presence of six mitochondrial haplogroups which show a degree of geographical partitioning. The genetic diversity of the domestic goose is low, with 84% of sampled individuals having one of two major closely related haplotypes, suggesting that modern European domestic geese may derive from a narrow genetic base. The site of domestication remains unresolved, but domestic geese in Turkey were unusually diverse, indicating the importance of further sampling in the vicinity of the eastern Mediterranean and the Near East. There appears to be past or ongoing hybridisation between greylags and domestic geese in particular areas, consistent with field observations.     

Climate change,phenology, and habitat degradation: drivers of gosling body condition and juvenile survival in lesser snow geese

Nesting migratory geese are among the dominant herbivores in (sub) arctic environments, which have undergone unprecedented increases in temperatures and plant growing days over the last three decades. Within these regions, the Hudson Bay Lowlands are home to an overabundant breeding population of lesser snow geese that has dramatically damaged the ecosystem, with cascading effects at multiple trophic levels. In some areas the overabundance of geese has led to a drastic reduction in available forage. In addition, warming of this region has widened the gap between goose migration timing and plant green‐up, and this ‘mismatch’ between goose and plant phenologies could in turn affect gosling development. The dual effects of climate change and habitat quality on gosling body condition and juvenile survival are not known, but are critical for predicting population growth and related degradation of (sub) arctic ecosystems. To address these issues, we used information on female goslings marked and measured between 1978 and 2005 (4125 individuals). Goslings that developed within and near the traditional center of the breeding colony experienced the effects of long‐term habitat degradation: body condition and juvenile survival declined over time. In newly colonized areas, however, we observed the opposite pattern (increase in body condition and juvenile survival). In addition, warmer than average winters and summers resulted in lower gosling body condition and first‐year survival. Too few plant ‘growing days’ in the spring relative to hatch led to similar results. Our assessment indicates that geese are recovering from habitat degradation by moving to newly colonized locales. However, a warmer climate could negatively affect snow goose populations in the long‐run, but it will depend on which seasons warm the fastest. These antagonistic mechanisms will require further study to help predict snow goose population dynamics and manage the trophic cascade they induce.