Abundance and abundance change in the world's parrots

Estimates of population density and abundance change (differences in density or encounter rates across land uses or time periods) form the cornerstone of much of our knowledge of species' responses to environmental conditions, extinction risks and potential conservation actions. Gathering baseline data on abundance of the world's c. 10 000 bird species and monitoring trends in the light of rapidly changing environmental and harvest pressures is a daunting prospect. With this in mind, we review literature on population densities and abundance changes across habitats in one of the world's largest and most threatened bird families, the parrots (Psittaciformes), to identify gaps in knowledge, model phylogenetic and other influences on abundance, and seek patterns that might guide thinking for data‐deficient taxa and situations. Density estimates were found for only 25% of 356 parrot species. Abundance change data were similarly limited and most came from logged forest, with very few comparisons across different anthropogenic habitats. Threatened species were no more likely to have a density estimate than non‐threatened species, and were less likely to have estimates of abundance change. Exploratory generalized linear mixed models indicated that densities are most influenced by genus, and are generally higher within protected areas than outside. It is unclear whether the latter effect stems from habitat protection, a reduction in poaching or both, but protected areas appear to be beneficial for parrots. Individual members of the ‘parakeet’ genera (e.g. Pyrrhura and Eos) were predictably abundant, whereas within larger‐bodied genera such as Ara (macaws), species were predictably uncommon (< 10 individuals per km²) and there was a long tail of extreme rarity. Responses of parrots to habitat change were highly variable, with natural variation in parrot abundance across different primary forests as great as that between primary forest and human‐altered forests. The speed at which environmental change is affecting the world's parrots far outstrips that of our current capacity to track their abundance and we assess the likely scale of data deficiency in this and other bird groups. Developments in survey and analysis methods such as variants of distance sampling and the integration of niche modelling with point density estimation may increase our effectiveness in monitoring parrots and other important and threatened bird groups.     

Characterization of 12 microsatellite primer pairs for the African grey parrot,Psittacus erithacus and their conservation across the Psittaciformes

This study describes 12 microsatellite loci identified in the African grey parrot Psittacus erithacus. Eleven were polymorphic, with observed heterozygosities 42–94% (average 68) and exclusion powers of P_E1 = 0.996 and P_E2 = 0.999. Microsatellites have previously been developed for a number of other parrots but showed limited cross‐species polymorphism. Here high levels of cross‐species amplification were observed: 71% of 32 Psittacines (22 genera). At least seven loci, 58%, were polymorphic in other African parrots as well as Neotropical and Australasian parrots, which diverged from the African parrots c30.6 and over 41.4 million years ago, respectively.     

Seasonal variation in grey crowned crane (Balearica regulorum) abundance in the Ngorongoro Crater,Tanzania

There are few quantitative estimates of numbers of Africa's endangered grey crowned cranes (Balearica regulorum), yet conservation of this species will depend on such estimates. We used line-transect distance sampling on multiple 2-km segments of an existing road network to estimate the abundance of grey crowned cranes in a portion of the Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania, during the wet (April) and dry (August) seasons of 2016. We analysed data from 106 transects on which we observed 174 groups of 1–61 cranes (median and mode = 2). Abundance and density estimates on the areas surveyed were best modelled without group size as a covariate and indicated that mean crane densities were significantly lower in the wet season (2.4/km²) than in the dry season (20.2 cranes/km²). Even based on survey areas of different size, minimum estimated numbers of cranes in the Crater (wet season: 108–133; dry season: 362–401) likely reflect the concentration of cranes in the nonbreeding (dry) season in the perennial wetlands of the Crater and reinforce the notion of the Crater being a key seasonal habitat for crane populations in northern Tanzania, as previously suggested in the literature.     

Comparative DNA sequence analysis of genetic variation in the African grey parrot, Psittacus erythacus

Comparative genome analysis promises to provide an insight into avian species that have been very little studied. To test the feasibility of this approach, we investigated the use of heterologous primers to generate single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in the African grey parrot, Psittacus erythacus, using primers specific for chicken and turkey DNA fragments. Three of the primers were specific for three expressed sequence tagged sites in the turkey and the fourth for a chicken proteoglycan core protein-like DNA sequence. A total of about 2200 bp of the parrot genome was evaluated for DNA sequence variation. Seven SNPs were identified and confirmed by Mendelian segregation. The frequency distribution of the most common nucleotide at each SNP locus in an unrelated group of parrots ranged from 0.84 to 0.97. The percent similarity of each parrot sequence to the reference sequence was inconsistent and ranged from zero to 100%. The primers as well as the nucleotide variants described represent valuable resources for genetic analysis in the parrot. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Challenges and opportunities for estimating abundance of a low-density moose population

Monitoring large herbivores across their core range has been readily accomplished using aerial surveys and traditional distance sampling. But for peripheral populations, where individuals may occur in patchy, low-density populations, precise estimation of population size and trend remains logistically and statistically challenging. For moose (Alces alces) along their southern range margin in northern New York, USA, we sought robust estimates of moose distribution, abundance, and population trend (2016–2019) using a combination of aerial surveys (line transect distance-sampling), repeated surveys in areas where moose were known to occur to boost the number of detections, and density surface modeling (DSM) with spatial covariates. We achieved a precise estimate of density (95% CI = 0.00–0.29 moose/km²) for this small population (656 moose, 95% CI = 501–859), which was patchily distributed across a large and heavily forested region (the 24,280-km² Adirondack Park). Local moose abundance was positively related to active timber management, elevation, and snow cover, and negatively related to large bodies of water. As expected, moose abundance in this peripheral population was low relative to its core range in other northern forest states. Yet, in areas where abundance was greatest, moose densities in New York approached those where epizootics of winter tick (Dermacentor albipictus) have been reported, underscoring the need for effective and efficient monitoring. By incorporating autocorrelation in observations and landscape covariates, DSM provided spatially explicit estimates of moose density with greater precision and no additional field effort over traditional distance sampling. Combined with repeated surveys of areas with known moose occurrence to achieve viable sample sizes, DSM is a useful tool for effectively monitoring low density and patchy populations.     

Estimates of population size of white-chinned petrels and grey petrels at Kerguelen Islands and sensitivity to fisheries

White-chinned petrels Procellaria aequinoctialis and grey petrels Procellaria cinerea are among the most frequently killed seabird species by accidental bycatch, and both species have received strong conservation concern. Data on population size are required to evaluate the impact of bycatch and to establish management plans. We estimated the population size of both species at Kerguelen, Southern Indian Ocean, from 2004 to 2006 by explicitly taking into account detection probability of burrows using distance sampling and burrow occupancy. A total of 31 line-transects were distributed across the eastern part of Kerguelen, representing a total length of 566 km. Detectability was low (from 0.19 to 0.54 for white-chinned petrels, 0.58 for grey petrels). Burrow densities varied from 1.37±0.67 to 25.77±5.23 burrows ha⁻¹ for white-chinned petrels and was 2.78±0.79 burrows ha⁻¹ for grey petrels. For white-chinned petrels, these densities were extrapolated to the entire surface area of vegetation and there were 234 000 (186 000–297 000) active burrows on Kerguelen. For grey petrels, the number of active burrows for the eastern part of Kerguelen was 3400 (1900–5600). Based on these estimates, the potential biological removal method suggests that the additional mortality on birds caused by the fisheries operating around Kerguelen can be considered a serious threat for the species at least at the regional scale of the Southern Indian Ocean, especially for grey petrels.     

Interspecific effects of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis) on the space use and population demography of red squirrels (Sciurus vulgaris) in conifer plantations

Interspecific competition between red squirrels and grey squirrels was investigated by comparing the population demography, spacing behavior and habitat use of red squirrels in two large conifer plantations in northern England: one site had only red squirrels (the red-only site), in the other both red and grey squirrels occurred (the red–grey site). Despite more abundant food at the red–grey site, red squirrel densities (0.26 ha^–1 at the red–grey site, 0.29 ha^–1 at the red-only site), adult survival rates and the breeding rates of females were similar at both study sites. Grey squirrels at the red–grey site occurred at higher densities (0.92–1.1 ha^–1) than did the reds and tended to have higher breeding rates. In the presence of grey squirrels, the recruitment pattern of red squirrels changed and there was little recruitment of subadults. The juvenile recruitment rate in the red–grey site (13%) was much lower than in the red-only site (50%). Grey squirrels, in contrast, had higher juvenile recruitment rates at the red–grey site (41%). The core areas of the home ranges of red squirrels in the red–grey site were more strongly overlapped by grey squirrels than by conspecifics. Red squirrels did not select the habitat with the best tree seed crop (Scots pine) but preferred dense Sitka spruce plantations; they appeared to avoid the Scots pine area with its high grey squirrel density. Data on foot length and body condition indicated decreased body growth in young red squirrels when grey squirrels were present. Our data suggest that adult red squirrels suffered little from interspecific competition with grey squirrels and that the key factor is decreased juvenile recruitment in red squirrels.     

Demographic and spatial responses of resident bird populations to the arrival of migratory birds within an urban environment

Long-distance migration allows many bird species to overcome the severe climatic changes that occur in seasonal environments. Migration is highly demanding, and given its cyclical nature, we currently know that it has substantial effects on the population parameters of migratory birds during both breeding and wintering seasons. However, the potential effects of the presence of migratory birds in their wintering grounds on populations of resident birds have remain largely unexplored. Here, we propose the hypothesis that migratory birds negatively affect the habitat occupancy and population abundance of resident birds because of the arrival of numerous individuals during the most limiting months of the year. Here, we studied different species of migratory and resident birds that coexist during winter in an urban ecological reserve located within Mexico City. We used single-species multiseason occupancy models, two-species occupancy models, and distance sampling techniques to evaluate changes in occupancy and population density of resident bird species during three consecutive winters. We found an aggregation pattern between two resident species (Psaltriparus minimus and Thryomanes bewickii) with three migratory warblers (Cardellina pusilla, Setophaga coronata and Setophaga townsendi). Thus, our results provide evidence of the formation of mixed-species flocks in our study area. We also conclude that resident birds experience different demographic and behavioral processes during winter that not necessarily result from interspecific interactions with migratory birds.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in Arctic mosquito abundance

1. Organisms that undergo a shift in ontogeny and habitat type often change their spatial distribution throughout their life cycle, but how this affects population dynamics remains poorly understood.
2. We examined spatial and temporal patterns in Aedes nigripes abundance, a widespread univoltine Arctic mosquito species (Diptera: Culicidae), hypothesizing that the spatial distribution of adults would be closely tied to aquatic habitat.
3. We tracked adult densities of A. nigripes near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland using emergence traps, CO₂-baited traps, and sweep-nets.
4. In back-to-back years of sampling (2017 and 2018) we found two-fold variation in overall abundance.
5. Adults were spatially patchy when first emerging from aquatic habitats but within a week, mean capture rates for host-seeking adult females were similar across locations, even in places far from larval habitat.
6. Daily variation in mosquito captures was primarily explained by weather, with virtually no mosquito activity when temperatures averaged less than 8°C or wind speeds exceeded 6 m/s. Gravid females (3% of resting adults) were spatially patchy on the landscape, but not always in the same places where most adults emerged.
7. The spatial distribution of adults is quickly uncoupled from the spatial distribution of larvae because A. nigripes females may disperse far from their natal habitats in search of a blood-meal and high-quality oviposition habitat.

8. This research highlights the value of studying ecological processes that act at disparate life stages for understanding the population biology of organisms with complex life cycles.     

Spatial density patterns of herbivore response to seasonal dynamics in the tropical deciduous forest of central India

Resource dynamism in seasonal forests leads ungulates to differential habitat preference; hence, their distribution aligns with environmental covariates across spatial and temporal scales. Seasonal patterns of four species of ungulates, namely sambar, chital, nilgai, and wild pig, were investigated and identified as the environmental variables driving the density gradient across two seasons, summer and winter, in the tropical dry deciduous forest of Panna Tiger Reserve, central India. Distance sampling data were analyzed using density surface modeling for ungulates with a survey effort of 518 km in winter and 356 km in summer in a generalized additive modeling framework. We found that season significantly affected the spatial densities of all ungulates, with sambar, chital, and nilgai congregating in summer and wild pig in winter. All ungulates showed a clear seasonal shift to the valley in summer and preferred plateaus in winter. The spatially explicit map outputs draw attention to the seasonal hot spots for ungulates abundance and the species and season-specific roles of environment variables in defining their distribution. These results provide a scientific basis for direct conservation efforts to the spatially prioritized habitats for cost-effective management interventions.     

A novel assessment of population structure and gene flow in grey wolf populations of the Northern Rocky Mountains of the United States

The successful re‐introduction of grey wolves to the western United States is an impressive accomplishment for conservation science. However, the degree to which subpopulations are genetically structured and connected, along with the preservation of genetic variation, is an important concern for the continued viability of the metapopulation. We analysed DNA samples from 555 Northern Rocky Mountain wolves from the three recovery areas (Greater Yellowstone Area, Montana, and Idaho), including all 66 re‐introduced founders, for variation in 26 microsatellite loci over the initial 10‐year recovery period (1995–2004). The population maintained high levels of variation (H_O = 0.64–0.72; allelic diversity k = 7.0–10.3) with low levels of inbreeding (F_IS < 0.03) and throughout this period, the population expanded rapidly (n₁₉₉₅ = 101; n₂₀₀₄ = 846). Individual‐based Bayesian analyses revealed significant population genetic structure and identified three subpopulations coinciding with designated recovery areas. Population assignment and migrant detection were difficult because of the presence of related founders among different recovery areas and required a novel approach to determine genetically effective migration and admixture. However, by combining assignment tests, private alleles, sibship reconstruction, and field observations, we detected genetically effective dispersal among the three recovery areas. Successful conservation of Northern Rocky Mountain wolves will rely on management decisions that promote natural dispersal dynamics and minimize anthropogenic factors that reduce genetic connectivity.     

Spatial and temporal variation of abundance,biomass and diversity within marine reserves in the Philippines

Aim The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of protection duration (years of fishing closure) and location (distance from shore) on reef fish diversity. Location Danajon Double Barrier Reef, Bohol, Philippines. Methods Reef fish abundance and size structure, by species, were obtained monthly using replicated underwater visual belt transects (n = 8; 70 × 5‐m belt transects) over 3 years (2002–2005) at eight sites that included six marine reserves and two unprotected reef areas. We analysed species accumulation curves, diversity indices and abundance–biomass comparison (ABC) curves within and across the study sites to assess the influence of protection duration and location. Results Analyses showed that longer protection duration impacted reef fish diversity at both inshore and offshore sites by shifting ABC curves from higher abundance than biomass curves at fished sites to higher biomass than abundance curves at most of the protected sites. Protection duration did not significantly influence either the rate of species accumulation within sites or the 12 diversity indices measured across the study sites. The offshore sites consistently showed higher rates of species accumulation and diversity indices values than inshore sites with similar protection duration. One protected offshore young marine reserve site that has been assessed as the least well‐managed showed patterns more consistent with the fished sites. Main conclusions Analyses showed that protection duration mainly impacted diversity by increasing the dominance of large‐bodied species and enhancing total biomass. Besides protection duration, reserve location influenced species accumulation curves and diversity indices.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of an insular tree, Santalum austrocaledonicum in New Caledonian archipelago

We present a study of the genetic diversity and structure of a tropical tree in an insular system. Santalum austrocaledonicum is endemic to the archipelago of New Caledonia and is exploited for oil extraction from heartwood. A total of 431 individuals over 17 populations were analysed for eight polymorphic microsatellite loci. The number of alleles per locus ranged from 3 to 33 and the observed heterozygosity per population ranged from 0.01 in Mare to 0.74 in Ile des Pins. The genetic diversity was lowest in the most recent islands, the Loyautes, and highest in the oldest island, Grande Terre, as well as the nearby small Ile des Pins. Significant departures from panmixia were observed for some loci-population combinations (per population FIS = 0-0.03 on Grande-Terre and Ile des Pins, and 0-0.67 on Loyautes). A strong genetic differentiation among all islands was observed (FST = 0.22), and the amount of differentiation increased with geographic distance in Iles Loyaute and in Grande Terre. At both population and island levels, island age and isolation seem to be the main factors influencing the amount of genetic diversity. In particular, populations from recent islands had large average FIS that could not be entirely explained by null alleles or a Wahlund effect. This result suggests that, at least in some populations, selfing occurred extensively. Conclusively, our results indicate a strong influence of insularity on the genetic diversity and structure of Santalum austrocaledonicum.     

On population abundance and niche structure

Recent published evidence indicates a negative correlation between density of populations and the distance of their environments to a suitably defined ‘niche centroid’. This empirical observation lacks theoretical grounds. We provide a theoretical underpinning for the empirical relationship between population density and position in niche space, and use this framework to understand the circumstances under which the relationship will fail. We propose a metapopulation model for the area of distribution, as a system of ordinary differential equations coupled with a dispersal kernel. We present an analytical approximation to the solution of the system as well as R code to solve the full model numerically. We use this tool to analyze various scenarios and assumptions. General and realistic demographic assumptions imply a good correlation between position in niche space and population abundance. Factors that modify this correlation are: transitory states, a heterogeneous spatial structure of suitability, and Allee effects. We also explain why the raw output of the niche modeling algorithm MaxEnt is not a good predictor of environmental suitability. Our results elucidate the empirical results for spatial patterns of population size in niche terms, and provide a theoretical basis for a structured theory of the niche.     

Habitat fragmentation and population size of the black and gold howler monkey (Alouatta caraya) in a semideciduous forest in Northern Argentina

A population of black and gold howler monkeys (Alouatta caraya) living near the southern limit of its distribution in a semideciduous forest located in northern Argentina was studied in 2003 to evaluate the possible effects of habitat fragmentation - owing to logging - on its density and social organization within it. Aerial photographs taken in 1982, 1992, and 2001 were used to compare maps of vegetation. These maps were used to evaluate changes in the area covered by forest fragments. From March to June 2003, 10-day monthly surveys of howlers were made in each fragment. A total of 232 individual howlers were counted, belonging to 34 groups plus a solitary adult female. Groups ranged from 2 to 19 individuals (mean = 6.82, SD = 4.23), and 21% of the groups contained more than one adult male. Adults accounted for 55% of the individuals, immatures for 45%, and infants represented 13% of the total. Data obtained were compared with information available for the same population for 1982 and 1995. Results revealed no significant changes in the area of fragments, the crude and ecological density of howlers, and group composition. Group sizes and group composition of howlers suggest that the population remained stable over the past 22 years. The density, number of groups, and individuals appears not to be affected by fragmentation and logging, but crude density was low compared with other less-disturbed habitats. The status of the population remains uncertain owing to isolation, and because there are no protected areas to ensure its stability for the future.     

Integrating distance sampling survey data with population indices to separate trends in abundance and temporary immigration

Managers rely on accurate estimators of wildlife abundance and trends for management decisions. Despite the focus of contemporary wildlife science on developing methods to improve inference from wildlife surveys, legacy datasets often rely on index counts that lack information about the detection process. Data integration can be a useful tool for combining index counts with data collected under more rigorous designs (i.e., designs that account for the detection process), but care is required when datasets represent different population processes or are mismatched in space and time. This can be particularly problematic in cases where animals aggregate in response to a spatially or temporally limited resource because individuals may temporarily immigrate from outside the study area and be included in the abundance index. Abundance indices based on brown bear (Ursus arctos) feeding aggregations within coastal meadows in early summer in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Alaska, USA, are one such example. These indices reflect the target population (brown bears residing within the park) and temporary immigrants (i.e., bears drawn from outside the park boundary). To properly account for the effects of temporary immigration, we integrated the index data with abundance data collected via park-wide distance sampling surveys, the latter of which properly addressed the detection process. By assuming that the distance data provide inference on abundance and the index counts represent some combination of abundance and temporary immigration processes, we were able to decompose the relative contribution of each to overall trend. We estimated that the density of brown bears within our study area was 38–54 adults/1,000 km² during 2003–2019 and that abundance increased at a rate of approximately 1.4%/year. The contribution of temporary immigrants to overall trend in the index was low, so we created 3 hypothetical scenarios to more fully demonstrate how the integrated approach could be useful in situations where the composite trend in meadow counts may obscure trends in abundance (e.g., opposing trends in abundance and temporary immigration). Our work represents a conceptual advance supporting the integration of legacy index data with more rigorous data streams and is broadly applicable in cases where trends in index values may represent a mixture of population processes.     

Spatial variation in parasite abundance: evidence of geographical population structuring in southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir

Southern garfish Hyporhamphus melanochir were examined for metazoan parasites from nine sites in three regions (Spencer Gulf, Gulf St Vincent and northern Kangaroo Island) in South Australia to document parasite assemblages, identify candidate species suitable for use as biological tags and investigate spatial variation in parasite abundance. Four ectoparasite and 10 endoparasite species were identified representing Cestoda, Trematoda, Monogenea, Nematoda, Acanthocephala, Copepoda and Isopoda. Lernaeenicus hemirhamphi, Micracanthorhynchina hemirhamphi, Mothocya halei and Philometra sp. were suggested for 'permanent' biological markers. Multivariate discriminant function analysis showed that most sites could be distinguished based on differences in parasite abundance. Four endoparasites (Conohelmins sp., Hysterothylacium sp., M. hemirhamphi and Philometra sp.) were most important for site characterization. Limited spatial variation in permanent endoparasite abundance among localities in northern Spencer Gulf provided evidence for a distinct northern Spencer Gulf population with little interregional mixing. In contrast, considerable spatial variation in permanent endoparasite abundance between localities sampled off Kangaroo Island implied limited local movement and suggested H. melanochir may comprise a metapopulation structure. These results largely align with recent evidence from otolith chemistry that indicates fine-scale geographical population structuring in South Australian waters.