The evolution of virulence in pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission

Frequency-dependent transmission is an important feature of diseases that are sexually transmitted or transmitted by a vector that actively searches for hosts. Here I describe the evolution of virulence in pathogens that have frequency-dependent transmission. I consider two components of virulence--an increase in host mortality due to infection, as is classically described, and a decrease in host fecundity due to infection, because frequency dependence is common among diseases that fully or partially sterilize their hosts. Theoretical predictions pertaining to host-pathogen numerical dynamics can be quite different between pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission and those with density-dependent transmission. In contrast, this study suggests that the principles governing the evolution of virulence that have been established in the context of density-dependent pathogens may also apply (qualitatively) to frequency-dependent pathogens. I examine the evolutionary trajectories of the mortality and sterility components of virulence as well as the role of spatial population structure in the evolution of the sterility component of virulence.     

The evolution of parasite virulence, superinfection, and host resistance

We analyze the evolutionary consequences of host resistance (the ability to decrease the probability of being infected by parasites) for the evolution of parasite virulence (the deleterious effect of a parasite on its host). When only single infections occur, host resistance does not affect the evolution of parasite virulence. However, when superinfections occur, resistance tends to decrease the evolutionarily stable (ES) level of parasite virulence. We first study a simple model in which the host does not coevolve with the parasite (i.e., the frequency of resistant hosts is independent of the parasite). We show that a higher proportion of resistant host decreases the ES level of parasite virulence. Higher levels of the efficiency of host resistance, however, do not always decrease the ES parasite virulence. The implications of these results for virulence management (evolutionary consequences of public health policies) are discussed. Second, we analyze the case where host resistance is allowed to coevolve with parasite virulence using the classical gene-for-gene (GFG) model of host-parasite interaction. It is shown that GFG coevolution leads to lower parasite virulence (in comparison with a fully susceptible host population). The model clarifies and relates the different components of the cost of parasitism: infectivity (ability to infect the host) and virulence (deleterious effect) in an evolutionary perspective.     

The evolution of virulence and pathogenicity in plant pathogen populations

The term virulence has a conflicting history among plant pathologists. Here we define virulence as the degree of damage caused to a host by parasite infection, assumed to be negatively correlated with host fitness, and pathogenicity the qualitative capacity of a parasite to infect and cause disease on a host. Selection may act on both virulence and pathogenicity, and their change in parasite populations can drive parasite evolution and host-parasite co-evolution. Extensive theoretical analyses of the factors that shape the evolution of pathogenicity and virulence have been reported in last three decades. Experimental work has not followed the path of theoretical analyses. Plant pathologists have shown greater interest in pathogenicity than in virulence, and our understanding of the molecular basis of pathogenicity has increased enormously. However, little is known regarding the molecular basis of virulence. It has been proposed that the mechanisms of recognition of parasites by hosts will have consequences for the evolution of pathogenicity, but much experimental work is still needed to test these hypotheses. Much theoretical work has been based on evidence from cellular plant pathogens. We review here the current experimental and observational evidence on which to test theoretical hypotheses or conjectures. We compare evidence from viruses and cellular pathogens, mostly fungi and oomycetes, which differ widely in genomic complexity and in parasitism. Data on the evolution of pathogenicity and virulence from viruses and fungi show important differences, and their comparison is necessary to establish the generality of hypotheses on pathogenicity and virulence evolution.     

Human disease and the evolution of pathogen virulence

Theorists who make a priori generalizations about the tendency of host-parasite systems to co-evolve toward commensalism or increased parasitism err because they do not consider the empirical relation between host pathology and pathogen transmission. Natural selection should favor increased pathogen virulence in diseases where host pathology contributes to pathogen transmission and favor decreased virulence when pathology impedes transmission. This paper classifies important human diseases according to the contribution human pathology makes to pathogen transmission.     

Local host competition in the evolution of virulence

The evolution of parasite life histories should usually have correlated effects on host survivorship and/or reproductive success. For example, parasites that reproduce more rapidly might be expected to cause greater reductions in host fitness. Important theoretical advances have recently been made on virulence evolution, but the results are not always consistent. Here I compare two models [ Q. Rev. Biol. 71 (1996) 37 ; Q. Rev. Biol. 75 (2000) 261 ] on the evolution of virulence that get qualitatively different results with respect to the effects of coinfection. I also construct a third model that attempts to connect these two formulations. The results suggest that parasite growth rates should increase as local host competition increases, unless relatedness is at equilibrium. In addition, the qualitative effect of adding coinfections on parasite growth rates depends critically on how the number of coinfections affects transmission success.     

The role of host population heterogeneity in the evolution of virulence

I examine here the effects of host heterogeneity in the growth of immune response on the evolution and co-evolution of virulence. The analysis is based on an extension of the 'nested model' by Gilchrist and Sasaki [Modeling host-parasite coevolution, J. Theor. Biol. 218 (2002), pp. 289-308]; the criteria for host and parasite evolution, in the paradigm of adaptive dynamics, for that model are derived in generality. Host heterogeneity is assumed to be fixed at birth according to a lognormal distribution or to the presence of two discrete types. In both cases, it is found that host heterogeneity determines a dramatic decrease in pathogen virulence, since pathogens will tune to the 'weakest' hosts. Finally we clarify how contrasting results present in the literature are due to different modelling assumptions.     

Effects of host heterogeneity on pathogen diversity and evolution

Phenotypic variation is common in most pathogens, yet the mechanisms that maintain this diversity are still poorly understood. We asked whether continuous host variation in susceptibility helps maintain phenotypic variation, using experiments conducted with a baculovirus that infects gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) larvae. We found that an empirically observed tradeoff between mean transmission rate and variation in transmission, which results from host heterogeneity, promotes long‐term coexistence of two pathogen types in simulations of a population model. This tradeoff introduces an alternative strategy for the pathogen: a low‐transmission, low‐variability type can coexist with the high‐transmission type favoured by classical non‐heterogeneity models. In addition, this tradeoff can help explain the extensive phenotypic variation we observed in field‐collected pathogen isolates, in traits affecting virus fitness including transmission and environmental persistence. Similar heterogeneity tradeoffs might be a general mechanism promoting phenotypic variation in any pathogen for which hosts vary continuously in susceptibility.     

Parasite transmission modes and the evolution of virulence

A mathematical model is presented that explores the relationship between transmission patterns and the evolution of virulence for horizontally transmitted parasites when only a single parasite strain can infect each host. The model is constructed by decomposing parasite transmission into two processes, the rate of contact between hosts and the probability of transmission per contact. These transmission rate components, as well as the total parasite mortality rate, are allowed to vary over the course of an infection. A general evolutionarily stable condition is presented that partitions the effects of virulence on parasite fitness into three components: fecundity benefits, mortality costs, and morbidity costs. This extension of previous theory allows us to explore the evolutionary consequences of a variety of transmission patterns. I then focus attention on a special case in which the parasite density remains approximately constant during an infection, and I demonstrate two important ways in which transmission modes can affect virulence evolution: by imposing different morbidity costs on the parasite and by altering the scheduling of parasite reproduction during an infection. Both are illustrated with examples, including one that examines the hypothesis that vector-borne parasites should be more virulent than non-vector-borne parasites (Ewald 1994). The validity of this hypothesis depends upon the way in which these two effects interact, and it need not hold in general.     

The evolution of parasite virulence and transmission rate in a spatially structured population

If the transmission occurs through local contact of the individuals in a spatially structured population, the evolutionarily stable (ESS) traits of parasite might be quite different from what the classical theory with complete mixing predicts. In this paper, we theoretically study the ESS virulence and transmission rate of a parasite in a lattice-structured host population, in which the host can send progeny only to its neighboring vacant site, and the transmission occurs only in between the infected and the susceptible in the nearest-neighbor sites. Infected host is assumed to be infertile. The analysis based on the pair approximation and the Monte Carlo simulation reveal that the ESS transmission rate and virulence in a lattice-structured population are greatly reduced from those in completely mixing population. Unlike completely mixing populations, the spread of parasite can drive the host to extinction, because the local density of the susceptible next to the infected can remain high even when the global density of host becomes very low. This demographic viscosity and group selection between self-organized spatial clusters of host individuals then leads to an intermediate ESS transmission rate even if there is no tradeoff between transmission rate and virulence. The ESS transmission rate is below the region of parasite-driven extinction by a finite amount for moderately large reproductive rate of host; whereas, the evolution of transmission rate leads to the fade out of parasite for small reproductive rate, and the extinction of host for very large reproductive rate.     

Coevolutionary cycling of host sociality and pathogen virulence in contact networks

Infectious diseases may place strong selection on the social organization of animals. Conversely, the structure of social systems can influence the evolutionary trajectories of pathogens. While much attention has focused on the evolution of host sociality or pathogen virulence separately, few studies have looked at their coevolution. Here we use an agent-based simulation to explore host-pathogen coevolution in social contact networks. Our results indicate that under certain conditions, both host sociality and pathogen virulence exhibit continuous cycling. The way pathogens move through the network (e.g., their interhost transmission and probability of superinfection) and the structure of the network can influence the existence and form of cycling.     

Trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission and the maintenance of a virulent plant pathogen

The continuum hypothesis predicts that parasites should evolve reduced virulence if they have higher opportunity for vertical transmission. However, when there is a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, selection may favor horizontal transmission and higher virulence. Atkinsonella hypoxylon is a fungal pathogen that reduces Danthonia fitness by 50% or more when it completely castrates hosts' chasmogamous inflorescences, despite the high opportunity for vertical transmission through cleistogamous seeds. Sporadically, infected hosts with partially castrated inflorescences (which have higher fecundity than completely castrated hosts) are observed in natural populations. Why are partially castrated plants rare if selection favors reduced virulence? We investigated whether there was genetic diversity for virulence among A. hypoxylon genotypes and the relationship between virulence and vertical transmission. We found that the fungal genotype significantly affects the occurrence of partial castration in Danthonia compressa. The proportion of seedlings that were vertically infected by their maternal plant was lower for partially castrated than for completely castrated plants. Our results demonstrate a trade-off between virulence and vertical transmission, explaining the maintenance of more virulent, completely castrating fungal genotypes in natural populations, and suggest that vertical transmission in plants is more complex than what is considered in current models.     

The evolution of virulence and host specialization in malaria parasites of primates

Parasite virulence, i.e. the damage done to the host, may be a by-product of the parasite's effort to maximize its fitness. Accordingly, several life-history trade-offs may explain interspecific differences in virulence, but such constraints remain little tested in an evolutionary context. In this phylogenetic study of primate malarias, I investigated the relationship between virulence and other parasite life-history traits. I used peak parasitaemia as a proxy for virulence, because it reflected parasite reproductive success and parasite-induced mortality. Peak parasitaemia was higher in specialist than in generalist species, even when confounding life-history traits were controlled. While there was a significant phylogenetic relationship between the number of competitors per host and host specialization, peak parasitaemia was unrelated to within-host competition. Therefore, the key evolutionary factor that favours virulence is host specialization, and the evolutionary success of virulent parasites, such as Plasmodium falciparum , may be better understood when the trade-off in virulence between different hosts is considered. Such phylogenetic results may help us design better protection programmes against malaria.     

Evolution of pathogen virulence: the role of variation in host phenotype

Selection on pathogens tends to favour the evolution of growth and reproductive rates and a concomitant level of virulence (damage done to the host) that maximizes pathogen fitness. Yet, because hosts often pose varying selective environments to pathogens, one level of virulence may not be appropriate for all host types. Indeed, if a level of virulence confers high fitness to the pathogen in one host phenotype but low fitness in another host phenotype, alternative virulence strategies may be maintained in the pathogen population. Such strategies can occur either as polymorphism, where different strains of pathogen evolve specialized virulence strategies in different host phenotypes or as polyphenism, where pathogens facultatively express alternative virulence strategies depending on host phenotype. Polymorphism potentially leads to specialist pathogens capable of infecting a limited range of host phenotypes, whereas polyphenism potentially leads to generalist pathogens capable of infecting a wider range of hosts. Evaluating how variation among hosts affects virulence evolution can provide insight into pathogen diversity and is critical in determining how host pathogen interactions affect the phenotypic evolution of both hosts and pathogens.     

The effect of spatial heterogeneity and parasites on the evolution of host diversity

Both spatial heterogeneity and exploiters (parasites and predators) have been implicated as key ecological factors driving population diversification. However, it is unclear how these factors interact. We addressed this question using the common plant-colonizing bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens, which has been shown to diversify rapidly into spatial niche-specialist genotypes when propagated in laboratory microcosms. Replicate populations were evolved in spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous environments (shaken and static microcosms, respectively) with and without viral parasites (bacteriophage) for approximately 60 bacterial generations. Consistent with previous findings, exploiters reduced diversity in heterogeneous environments by relaxing the intensity of resource competition. By contrast, exploiters increased diversity in homogeneous environments where there was little diversification through resource competition. Competition experiments revealed this increase in diversity to be the result of fitness trade-offs between exploiter resistance and competitive ability. In both environments, exploiters increased allopatric diversity, presumably as a result of divergent selection for resistance between populations. Phage increased total diversity in homogeneous environments, but had no net effect in heterogeneous environments. Such interactions between key ecological variables need to be considered when addressing diversification and coexistence in future studies.     

Natural variation in host feeding behaviors impacts host disease and pathogen transmission potential

Animals ranging from mosquitoes to humans often vary their feeding behavior when infected or merely exposed to pathogens. These so‐called “sickness behaviors” are part of the innate immune response with many consequences, including avoiding orally transmitted pathogens. Fully understanding the role of this ubiquitous behavior in host defense and pathogen evolution requires a quantitative account of its impact on host and pathogen fitness across environmentally relevant contexts. Here, we use a zooplankton host and fungal pathogen as a case study to ask if infection‐mediated feeding behaviors vary across pathogen exposure levels and natural genetic variation in susceptibility to infection. Then, we connect these changes in behavior to pathogen transmission potential (spore yield) and fitness and growth costs to the host. Our results validate a protective effect of altered feeding behavior during pathogen exposure while also revealing significant variation in the magnitude of this response across host susceptibility and pathogen exposure levels. Across all four host genotypes, feeding rates were negatively correlated with susceptibility to infection and transmission potential. The most susceptible genotypes exhibited either strong anorexia, reducing food intake by 26%–42%, (“Standard”) or pronounced hyperphagia, increasing food intake by 20%–54% (“A45”). Together, these results suggest that infection‐mediated changes in host feeding behavior—which are traditionally interpreted as immunopathology— may in fact serve as crucial components of host defense strategies and warrant further investigation.     

Context-dependent transmission of a generalist plant pathogen: host species and pathogen strain mediate insect vector competence

The specificity of pathogen–vector–host interactions is an important element of disease epidemiology. For generalist pathogens, different pathogen strains, vector species, or host species may all contribute to variability in disease incidence. One such pathogen is Xylella fastidiosa Wells et al., a xylem-limited bacterium that infects dozens of crop, ornamental, and native plants in the USA. This pathogen also has a diverse vector complex and multiple biologically distinct strains. We studied the implications of diversity in this pathogen–vector–host system, by quantifying variability in transmission efficiency of different X. fastidiosa strains (isolates from almond and grape genetic groups) for different host plants (grape, almond, and alfalfa) by two of the most important vectors in California: glassy-winged sharpshooter [ Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar)] and green sharpshooter ( Draeculacephala minerva Ball) (both Hemiptera: Cicadellidae). Transmission of isolates of the almond strain by H. vitripennis did not differ significantly, whereas transmission varied significantly among isolates from the grape strain (15–90%). Host plant species did not affect H. vitripennis transmission. Conversely, D. minerva efficiency was mediated by both host plant species and pathogen strain. No acquisition of an almond isolate occurred regardless of plant type (0/122), whereas acquisition of a grape isolate from alfalfa was 10-fold higher than from grape or almond plants. These results suggest that pathogen, vector, and host diversity impose contingencies on the transmission ecology of this complex disease system. Studies aimed at the development of management strategies for X. fastidiosa diseases should consider the complexity of these interactions as they relate to disease spread.     

Microbial genome analysis: insights into virulence, host adaptation and evolution

Genome analysis of microbial pathogens has provided unique insights into their virulence, host adaptation and evolution. Common themes have emerged, including lateral gene transfer among enteric pathogens, genome decay among obligate intracellular pathogens and antigenic variation among mucosal pathogens. The advent of post-genomic approaches and the sequencing of the human genome will enable scientists to investigate the complex and dynamic interplay between host and pathogen. This wealth of information will catalyse the development of new intervention strategies to reduce the burden of microbial-related disease.     

Ultrafast evolution and loss of CRISPRs following a host shift in a novel wildlife pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum

Measureable rates of genome evolution are well documented in human pathogens but are less well understood in bacterial pathogens in the wild, particularly during and after host switches. Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) is a pathogenic bacterium that has evolved predominantly in poultry and recently jumped to wild house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus), a common North American songbird. For the first time we characterize the genome and measure rates of genome evolution in House Finch isolates of MG, as well as in poultry outgroups. Using whole-genome sequences of 12 House Finch isolates across a 13-year serial sample and an additional four newly sequenced poultry strains, we estimate a nucleotide diversity in House Finch isolates of only ～2% of ancestral poultry strains and a nucleotide substitution rate of 0.8-1.2×10(-5) per site per year both in poultry and in House Finches, an exceptionally fast rate rivaling some of the highest estimates reported thus far for bacteria. We also found high diversity and complete turnover of CRISPR arrays in poultry MG strains prior to the switch to the House Finch host, but after the invasion of House Finches there is progressive loss of CRISPR repeat diversity, and recruitment of novel CRISPR repeats ceases. Recent (2007) House Finch MG strains retain only ～50% of the CRISPR repertoire founding (1994-95) strains and have lost the CRISPR-associated genes required for CRISPR function. Our results suggest that genome evolution in bacterial pathogens of wild birds can be extremely rapid and in this case is accompanied by apparent functional loss of CRISPRs.