China's success in increasing per capita food production

China has to feed 20% of the global population with only about 5% of the planet's water resources and 7% of its arable land. With such limited natural conditions, however, China's grain production has increased from about 200 kg per capita in 1949 to about 400 kg in the early 1990s. Hunger as a social problem has largely disappeared after being prevalent in China for several thousand years with the rise and decline of dynasties. This achievement has been accompanied by a 2.5-fold increase in the population and a 4.5-fold increase in total grain production. Although total cropped land has increased slightly in some areas, land used for cropping has decreased from 0.18 hectare per capita in the 1950s to less than 0.1 hectare per capita today. Apparently, yield increase or improved land productivity is the major contributor to the increase of food production per capita. What are the major reasons for the unprecedented achievement in China's food production? Political decisions, good or bad, on land distribution and ownership changes, have caused unusual fluctuation in grain production. Technical progress, however, has maintained a long-term increasing trend. The semi-dwarf cultivars of rice and wheat, the use of heterosis in rice and maize, and the alleviation of salinized soil stress in the major grain-producing areas have all played significant roles in increasing China's food production capability.     

Rapid redistribution of agricultural land alters avian richness,abundance, and functional diversity

The conversion of natural, or seminatural, habitats to agricultural land and changes in agricultural land use are significant drivers of biodiversity loss. Within the context of land‐sharing versus land‐sparing debates, large‐scale commercial agriculture is known to be detrimental to biodiversity, but the effects of small‐scale subsistence farming on biodiversity are disputed. This poses a problem for sustainable land‐use management in the Global South, where approximately 30% of farmland is small‐scale. Following a rapid land redistribution program in Zimbabwe, we evaluated changes in avian biodiversity by examining richness, abundance, and functional diversity. Rapid land redistribution has, in the near term, resulted in increased avian abundance in newly farmed areas containing miombo woodland and open habitat. Conversion of seminatural ranched land to small‐scale farms had a negative impact on larger‐bodied birds, but species richness increased, and birds in some feeding guilds maintained or increased abundance. We found evidence that land‐use change caused a shift in the functional traits of the communities present. However, functional analyses may not have adequately reflected the trait filtering effect of land redistribution on large species. Whether newly farmed landscapes in Zimbabwe can deliver multiple benefits in terms of food production and habitat for biodiversity in the longer term is an open question. When managing agricultural land transitions, relying on taxonomic measures of diversity, or abundance‐weighted measures of function diversity, may obscure important information. If the value of smallholder‐farmed land for birds is to be maintained or improved, it will be essential to ensure that a wide array of habitat types is retained alongside efforts to reduce hunting and persecution of large bird species.     

The effects of land use changes on streams and rivers in mediterranean climates

We reviewed the literature on the effects of land use changes on mediterranean river ecosystems (med-rivers) to provide a foundation and directions for future research on catchment management during times of rapid human population growth and climate change. Seasonal human demand for water in mediterranean climate regions (med-regions) is high, leading to intense competition for water with riverine communities often containing many endemic species. The responses of river communities to human alterations of land use, vegetation, hydrological, and hydrochemical conditions are similar in mediterranean and other climatic regions. High variation in hydrological regimes in med-regions, however, tends to exacerbate the magnitude of these responses. For example, land use changes promote longer dry season flows, concentrating contaminants, allowing the accumulation of detritus, algae, and plants, and fostering higher temperatures and lower dissolved oxygen levels, all of which may extirpate sensitive native species. Exotic species often thrive in med-rivers altered by human activity, further homogenizing river communities worldwide. We recommend that future research rigorously evaluate the effects of management and restoration practices on river ecosystems, delineate the cause–effect pathways leading from human perturbations to stream biological communities, and incorporate analyses of the effects of scale, land use heterogeneity, and high temporal hydrological variability on stream communities.     

The impact of climate change on the structure of Pleistocene food webs across the mammoth steppe

Species interactions form food webs, impacting community structure and, potentially, ecological dynamics. It is likely that global climatic perturbations that occur over long periods of time have a significant influence on species interaction patterns. Here, we integrate stable isotope analysis and network theory to reconstruct patterns of trophic interactions for six independent mammalian communities that inhabited mammoth steppe environments spanning western Europe to eastern Alaska (Beringia) during the Late Pleistocene. We use a Bayesian mixing model to quantify the contribution of prey to the diets of local predators, and assess how the structure of trophic interactions changed across space and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a global climatic event that severely impacted mammoth steppe communities. We find that large felids had diets that were more constrained than those of co-occurring predators, and largely influenced by an increase in Rangifer abundance after the LGM. Moreover, the structural organization of Beringian and European communities strongly differed: compared with Europe, species interactions in Beringian communities before—and possibly after—the LGM were highly modular. We suggest that this difference in modularity may have been driven by the geographical insularity of Beringian communities.     

Balancing food production and nature conservation in the Neotropical dry forests of northern Argentina

The growing human population and the increase in per capita food consumption are driving agriculture expansion and affecting natural ecosystems around the world. To balance increasing agriculture production and nature conservation, we must assess the efficiency of land‐use strategies. Soybean production, mainly exported to China and Europe, has become the major driver of deforestation in dry forest/savanna ecosystems of South America. In this article we compared land cover patterns (based on satellite imagery) and land‐use and human population trends (based on government statistics) in regions with two contrasting development pathways in the Chaco dry forests of northern Argentina, since the early 1970s. The area (ca. 13 million hectares) includes one of the largest continuous patches of tropical dry forests and has experienced rapid land‐use change. In the region where land use has been driven by government‐sponsored colonization programs, the expansion of extensive grazing has led to a growing rural population, low food production, and widespread environmental degradation. In contrast, in the region dominated by market‐driven soybean expansion, the rural population has decreased, food production is between 300% and 800% greater, and low‐density extensive cattle production has declined over extensive remaining forested areas, resulting in a land‐use trend that appears to better balance food production and nature conservation.     

Changing Perceptions of Risk: The Development of Agro-Ecosystems in Southeast Asia

New long-term environmental sequences for Southeast Asia provide a basis for reevaluating the development of agroecosystems. Previous models depict agricultural development as a singular, relatively rapid response to various stimuli such as climate change and population growth. In contrast, the Southeast Asian data indicate that the development of tropical agro-ecosystems are the result of stresses separated in time and not part of a unitary developmental process. Two phases are evident: At the end of the Pleistocene, environmental data indicate a significant climatic change that would have affected the distribution of food resources. In some areas, this encouraged food production as previous food resources decreased or disappeared. In the second phase, during the mid- Holocene, increased cultural and social risks led to shifts in strategies that created agro-ecosystems—a more fundamental transformation of landscape ecology. This distinct two-phase pattern suggests groups were responding to very different challenges in each period These findings underscore the need to reexamine agricultural models that conflate separate and distinct processes of cultural change. [Keywords: Southeast Asia, tropical land use, phytoliths, agriculture, Thailand]     

Demand for labor and population growth in colonial Java

Population growth in Java paralleled the development of a colonial economy based on the production of export crops using Javanese land and labor. The increase in population may be interpreted as a demographic response to demand for labor within the family, created by the need to intensify subsistence production in the face of colonial demands on land, labor, and produce.     

流域尺度土地利用与土壤类型空间分布的相关性研究

随着人类活动日益加强,土地利用变化及其驱动力研究已经成为国际地理学界研究的热点。但目前更多的工作侧重于研究人为因子,如人口增长、政策变化等因子对土地利用变化的影响,其实土地利用在宏观尺度上的变化一定程度上取决于自然环境背景,因此研究土地利用变化的自然环境背景特征对于进一步探讨土地利用变化的自然驱动力具有重要意义。土壤类型的空间分布在一定程度将影响土地利用的空间分布格局和变化过程。本文利用遥感、地理信息系统,通过选取景观格局指标,以于桥水库流域为例,研究了土地利用与土壤类型空间分布之间的相互关系。结果表明：(1)受人类活动干扰较弱的土地利用类型,如有林地、稀疏林地、灌木林地、其他林地和草地,主要分布在淋溶褐土、褐土性土以及棕壤地区;而与人类活动密切的土地利用类型,如山区旱耕地、丘陵区水田、丘陵区旱耕地和平原区旱耕地主要分布在淋溶褐土、褐土性土和潮土地区;(2)同类地区土地利用的多样性指数要比土壤的低。并且土地利用和土壤类型多样性均表现出明显的地形梯度效应,从中低山区、低山丘陵区、丘陵平原区到山间盆地区,土壤多样性指数从小到大有规律地变化。而土地利用类型多样性变化较为复杂,反映出人类活动对土地利用格局的影响较强,而对土壤类型的影响相对较小;(3)随着平均斑块面积的增加,流域多样性指数将呈下降趋势。土地利用多样性指数与流域总面积之间的相关性较差,但土壤多样性指数与流域总面积表现出的相关性较好;(4)土地利用类型与土壤类型之间,平均斑块面积上没有明显的相关关系,但在多样性指数之间存在着较好的相关性。土壤类型丰富多样的地区,土地利用的多样性指数也相对较高。     

Land‐use change promotes avian diversity at the expense of species with unique traits

Land‐use change may alter both species diversity and species functional diversity patterns. To test the idea that species diversity and functional diversity changes respond in differing ways to land‐use changes, we characterize the form of the change in bird assemblages and species functional traits along an intensifying gradient of land use in the savanna biome in a historically homogeneous vegetation type in Phalaborwa, South Africa. A section of this vegetation type has been untransformed, and the remainder is now mainly characterized by urban and subsistence agricultural areas. Using morphometric, foraging and breeding functional traits of birds, we estimate functional diversity changes. Bird species richness and abundance are generally higher in urban and subsistence agricultural land uses, as well as in the habitat matrix connecting these regions, than in the untransformed area, a pattern mainly driven through species replacement. Functionally unique species, particularly ground nesters of large body size, were, however, less abundant in more utilized land uses. For a previously homogenous vegetation type, declines in the seasonality of energy availability under land‐use change have led to an increase in local avian diversity, promoting the turnover of species, but reduced the abundance of functionally unique species. Although there is no simple relationship between land‐use and diversity change, land‐use change may suit some species, but such change may also involve functional homogenization.     

After the Revolution: Post-Neolithic Subsistence in Northern Mesopotamia

Over the past two decades there has been a proliferation of studies that reveal a far greater diversity in the pathways to food production worldwide than would have been predicted by traditional models of the Neolithic Revolution. It would now appear that, while there are certain universal elements in the origins of food production, each instance of the incorporation of domestic resources into the subsistence economy is shaped by highly localized social and natural forces. It is perhaps not surprising, then, to find that the times after the Neolithic Revolution do not conform to earlier uniformitarian conceptions of the origin of food production as either a technological blessing or an environmental blight that locked people into an economy based solely on domestic resources. This examination of subsistence at Umm Qseir, one small post-Neolithic community in the Khabur Draïnage of Northern Mesopotamia, highlights the remarkable degree of flexibility and individualized response in post-Neolithic economies in the Near East, especially in marginal areas. The incorporation of both domestic and wild resources into the economy of inhabitants of this site is further shown not to be just an isolated curiosity. Rather, Umm Qseir joins a number of other post-Neolithic communities situated in marginal areas, persisting several millennia after the first introduction of domestic crops and animals, that also fashioned highly individualized subsistence economies based on both wild and damestic resources. In the Khabur Drainage, the blending of domestic and wild resources in the subsistence of people situated in more arid areas is replaced by a more "conventional" agropastoral economy only with development of urbanism and the imposition of an agricultural economy of scale on this fragile environment.     

Carnivore conservation under land use change: the status of Zimbabwe’s cheetah population after land reform

Large terrestrial carnivores especially have experienced substantial declines in range and numbers. Changes in land use are a main driver of such declines, yet various developing countries have accelerated land use change through state-led land reform programmes. One of the most renowned land reform programmes is Zimbabwe’s fast track land reform programme (FTLRP), which resulted in fast and compulsory subdivision of large commercial farms into indigenized small scale commercial and subsistence farms. Several case studies have shown an impact of the FTLRP on wildlife, however, its effect on wildlife populations at a nationwide scale remains largely unknown. Due to its wide-ranging nature, the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) is particularly vulnerable to changes in land use. In this study I used questionnaire survey and citizen science data to determine the population status and distribution of the cheetah 15 years after introduction of the FTLRP. I also assessed the level of human-cheetah conflict, and attitudes of commercial and subsistence farmers towards cheetah. I found dramatic range contractions and population declines, particularly in the landscape outside protected areas. Despite minimal conflict, subsistence farmers were less tolerant to cheetah than commercial farmers. Consequently, land reform is likely to have increased the hostility of the cheetah landscape outside protected areas. This study is one of the most comprehensive species assessments to date. It provides valuable empirical data on the implications of land use change and emphasizes how a lack of knowledge impedes our ability to recognize a species vulnerability to (local) extinction risk.     

An exploratory model of the impact of rapid climate change on the world food situation

A simple, globally aggregated, stochastic-simulation model was constructed to examine the effects of rapid climatic change on agriculture and the human population. The model calculates population size and the production, consumption and storage of grain under different climate scenarios over a 20-year projection time. In most scenarios, either an optimistic baseline annual increase of agricultural output of 1.7% or a more pessimistic appraisal of 0.9% was used. The rate of natural increase of the human population exclusive of excess hunger-related deaths was set as 1.7% per year and climatic changes with both negative and positive impacts on agriculture were assessed. Analysis of the model suggests that the number of hunger-related deaths could double (with reference to an estimated 200 million deaths in the past two decades) if grain production keeps pace with population growth but climatic conditions are unfavourable. If the rate of increase in grain production is about half that of population growth, the number of hunger-related deaths could increase about fivefold (over past levels); the impact of climatic change is relatively small under this imbalance. Even favourable climatic changes that enhance agricultural production may not prevent a fourfold increase in deaths (over past levels) under scenarios where population growth outpaces production by about 0.8% per annum. These results may foreshadow a fundamental change where, for the first time, absolute global food deficits compound inequities in food production and distribution in causing famine. The model also highlights the effectiveness of reducing population growth rates as a strategy for minimizing the impact of global climate change and maintaining food supplies for everyone.     

中国土地利用空间格局动态变化模拟——以规划情景为例

土地利用变化研究在环境可持续发展研究领域中具有重要的地位,其空间分布格局的变化影响到生物地球化学循环、气候变化、生物多样性等。采用土地利用动态变化模型Dyna-CLUE模拟了在规划情景下中国土地利用变化未来空间分布格局。将土地利用类型分为六大类,即耕地、草地、林地、建设用地、水域和其它用地。驱动因子包括地形地貌、气候、社会交通等方面,对动态驱动因子如气温、降水、人口交通等,考虑了其在未来情景下的发展趋势。基于土地利用类型与驱动因子之间的定量关系和土地利用类型之间的转换规则等,模拟出至2020年中国土地利用分布格局。结果表明,至2020年,中国东南部、黄淮海平原、四川盆地等地区耕地面积将增加,东北、西北等农牧交错区、农林交错区和沙漠边缘耕地面积将会呈轻度减少趋势;林地面积将增加1417.91万hm2,主要发生在中国东北部以及西南部水热条件好的地区;中国草地在面积上保持稳定,空间上中东部、东南地区草地面积减少,内蒙古中部,青海东部,四川盆地北缘区和青藏高原等地面积增加;建设用地增加531.76万hm2,主要发生在中国的东部地区。     

Responses to a Drought in the Interior Lowlands of Papua New Guinea: A Comparison of Bedamuni and Kubo-Konai

The ways that people experience, respond to and pattern recovery from major climatic aberrations must be understood within the context of existing socioeconomic arrangements and the ethos that informs these. This paper describes immediate and longer term impacts of a major drought on two populations—Bedamuni and Kubo-Konai—in the interior lowlands of Papua New Guinea. Though they occupy similar environments, are culturally related and reliant on similar technology and resources, these two populations differ in density, intensity of land use, and social complexity. The drought of 1997 affected one of the populations much more severely than the other. A comparison of effects on subsistence regimes, mobility and social life in the two areas suggests that these were mediated by understandings people held of relationships with both the environment and other people. Bedamuni pattern their lives around an expectation of favorable returns on effort, emphasising security of tenure to protect those returns. Kubo-Konai, in contrast, pattern their lives around an expectation that availability of resources will be often in flux, and emphasise means of ensuring security of supply. These understandings are reflected, respectively, in risk-prone and risk-averse strategies of subsistence and sociality which directly influence vulnerability and responses to disruptive events.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

Elder knowledge and sustainable livelihoods in post-Soviet Russia: finding dialogue across the generations

Russia's indigenous peoples have been struggling with economic, environmental, and socio-cultural dislocation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In northern rural areas, the end of the Soviet Union most often meant the end of agro-industrial state farm operations that employed and fed surrounding rural populations. Most communities adapted to this loss by reinstating some form of pre-Soviet household-level food production based on hunting, fishing, and/or herding. However, mass media, globalization, and modernity challenge the intergenerational knowledge exchange that grounds subsistence practices. Parts of the circumpolar north have been relatively successful in valuing and integrating elder knowledge within their communities. This has not been the case in Russia. This article presents results of an elder knowledge project in northeast Siberia, Russia that shows how rural communities can both document and use elder knowledge to bolster local definitions of sustainability and, at the same time, initiate new modes of communication between village youth and elders.     

Cassava stems: a new resource to increase food and fuel production

Given the growing global population, mankind must find new ways to lower competition for land between food and fuel production. Our findings for cassava suggest that this important crop can substantially increase the combined production of both food and fuel. Cassava stems have previously been overlooked in starch and energy production. These food‐crop residues contain about 30% starch (dry mass) mostly in the xylem rather than phloem tissue. Up to 15% starch of the stem dry mass can be extracted using simple water‐based techniques, potentially leading to an 87% increase in global cassava starch production. The integration of biofuel production, using residues and wastewater from starch extraction, may bring added value. The cassava roots on which biofuels and other products are based can be replaced by cassava stems without land use expansion, making root starch available as food for additional 30 million people today.     

Impact of Quaternary climatic changes and interspecific competition on the demographic history of a highly mobile generalist carnivore, the coyote

Recurrent cycles of climatic change during the Quaternary period have dramatically affected the population genetic structure of many species. We reconstruct the recent demographic history of the coyote (Canis latrans) through the use of Bayesian techniques to examine the effects of Late Quaternary climatic perturbations on the genetic structure of a highly mobile generalist species. Our analysis reveals a lack of phylogeographic structure throughout the range but past population size changes correlated with climatic changes. We conclude that even generalist carnivorous species are very susceptible to environmental changes associated with climatic perturbations. This effect may be enhanced in coyotes by interspecific competition with larger carnivores.     

Global Integration and Subsistence Insecurity

Global integration heightens the cyclical crises of capitalism by incorporating the subsistence sectors of advanced and peripheral economies. World trends show a contraction in industrial production; the rise of unemployment, an increase in military spending and decline in social welfare, a reversal of capital flows from developing countries to developed economies, and a worldwide drop in real wages. The impact of these trends on communities in Mexico, Bolivia, and the United States where the author has done fieldwork is assessed in relation to current economic crises and the social movements that respond to them. The author shows that collective action to oppose the devastating effect on subsistence is more prevalent in marginal economies that are just beginning to experience the effect of capital penetration than in the industrial wastelands of developed countries. Theories of the crisis neglect those arenas where resistance and protest are most active: the urban barrios struggling for food and water, the rural laborers forced off of their land base, and the hunters and cultivators of the jungle. Luxemburg's thesis asserting the importance of the subsistence sector in capital accumulation acquires increasing significance at a time when those economies are threatened with extinction. Expanding the notion of subsistence production to include nonwage work allows us to theorize the significance of social reproduction in crisis conditions.     

Land‐use change shifts and magnifies seasonal variations of the decomposer system in lowland tropical landscapes

Deforestation and agricultural expansion in the tropics affect local and regional climatic conditions, leading to synergistic negative impacts on land ecosystems. Climatic changes manifest in increased inter‐ and intraseasonal variations and frequency of extreme climatic events (i.e., droughts and floods), which have evident consequences for aboveground biodiversity. However, until today, there have been no studies on how land use affects seasonal variations below ground in tropical ecosystems, which may be more buffered against climatic variation. Here, we analyzed seasonal variations in soil parameters, basal respiration, microbial communities, and abundances of soil invertebrates along with microclimatic conditions in rainforest and monocultures of oil palm and rubber in Sumatra, Indonesia. About 75% (20 out of 26) of the measured litter and soil, microbial, and animal parameters varied with season, with seasonal changes in 50% of the parameters depending on land use. Land use affected seasonal variations in microbial indicators associated with carbon availability and cycling rate. The magnitude of seasonal variations in microbial parameters in the soil of monocultures was almost 40% higher than in the soil of rainforest. Measured parameters were associated with short‐term climatic conditions (3‐day period air humidity) in plantations, but not in rainforest, confirming a reduced soil buffering ability in plantations. Overall, our findings suggest that land use temporally shifts and increases the magnitude of seasonal variations of the belowground ecosystem compartment, with microbial communities responding most strongly. The increased seasonal variations in soil biota in plantations likely translate into more pronounced fluctuations in essential ecosystem functions such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration, and these ramifications ultimately may compromise the stability of tropical ecosystems in the long term. As the observed seasonal dynamics is likely to increase with both local and global climate change, these shifts need closer attention for the long‐term sustainable management of plantation systems in the tropics.