Feral horse impacts on threatened plants and animals in sub‐alpine and montane environments in Victoria,Australia

Feral herbivores are a major driver of biodiversity loss globally and can alter the structure, composition and functioning of ecosystems. The direct impacts of feral herbivores on plant communities are well studied, but the direct and indirect effect they have on wildlife is not well understood. In Victoria (south‐eastern Australia), a large feral Horse (Equus caballus) population coincides with highly sensitive and nationally endangered Alpine Sphagnum Bogs and Associated Fens communities, and several threatened animal species. We assessed the impact of feral horses on this ecological community and the Alpine Water Skink (Eulamprus kosciuskoi) and the Broad‐toothed Rat (Mastacomys fuscus) at 20 sites with varying levels of horse disturbance. We used scat counts to determine an index of feral horse abundance and quantified impacts associated with their presence in the landscape. Active searches were used for Alpine Water Skink and scat and runway surveys for Broad‐toothed Rat. We also measured the vegetation structure and the abundance of different vegetation types (life forms). Our results suggest that feral horses are associated with vegetation types and characteristics that negatively influence the presence or abundance of Alpine Water Skink and Broad‐toothed Rat. Sites with high horse activity had more low‐growing forbs, and the abundance of Alpine Water Skink was negatively related to this vegetation type. Grasses, sedges, rushes and shrubs were also less dense and lower in height in high horse activity sites, and Broad‐toothed Rat was less likely to be present in areas with these habitat attributes. We recommend that feral horses are controlled to protect these threatened vertebrate species and their Sphagnum bog habitat.     

Habitat selection by feral cats and dingoes in a semi‐arid woodland environment in central Australia

Habitat use by feral cats and dingoes was examined within a heterogeneous semi‐arid woodland site in central Australia over 2 years. Density estimates of feral cats based on tracks were higher in mulga habitat than in open habitat. Isodar analysis implied that this pattern of habitat use by feral cats was consistent with the consumer‐resource model of density‐dependent habitat selection, which is an ideal free solution. The reason why mulga supported higher densities of feral cats was unclear. Foraging success of feral cats may be higher in the mulga because the stalk and ambush hunting tactics typically employed by felids are well suited to dense cover. Mulga may also have offered feral cats more protection from dingo predation. Dingo activity was distributed uniformly across habitats. The dingo isodar was statistically non‐significant, suggesting that habitat selection by dingoes was independent of density.     

Interactions between habitat quality and connectivity affect immigration but not abundance or population growth of the butterfly, Parnassius smintheus

Habitat geometry has been a primary focus in studies of spatially structured systems. Recent studies have indicated that a more comprehensive approach including habitat quality may be needed, however most previous studies have neglected potential interactions between quality and geometry. We investigated the effects of habitat quality for the butterfly Parnassius smintheus among a series of 17 sub‐populations. Specifically, we examined how habitat connectivity and local nectar flower density affect dispersal, and local population abundance and growth. We first determined which flower species were potentially important by examining nectar flower electivity and then quantified nectar flower density in meadows over a five year period (2003–2007). These data along with meadow connectivity were compared to local population statistics derived from mark–recapture over the same time period. The number of immigrants to a meadow increased as meadow connectivity increased, but showed no direct relationship with nectar flower density; however, there was a significant interaction between meadow connectivity and nectar flower density such that meadows with high connectivity and a high density of nectar flowers received the greatest number of immigrants. The number of emigrants from a meadow increased with increasing habitat quality and connectivity, but showed no interactive effect. The abundance of butterflies increased with meadow connectivity, but showed no relationship with habitat quality or any interactive effect. Separate experiments showed that access to nectar flowers significantly increased female reproductive output, but not lifespan. Despite the effects on immigration and reproductive output, local population growth rates also showed no relationship to nectar flower density. Our results indicate that habitat quality can be important for immigration in spatially structured populations; however, effects of habitat quality may not necessarily translate into higher abundance or population growth. Additionally, habitat quality should not be considered independently from habitat isolation, particularly if it directly affects dispersal. Preserving or augmenting habitat quality will do little to bolster immigration or colonization without adequate connectivity.     

Can reintroductions to degraded habitat succeed? A test using the common brushtail possum

Habitat degradation contributes to species decline, and habitat quality is an important factor influencing reintroduction success globally. Habitat quality can include a range of physical resources such as nest sites and food resources but also anything that can restrict the use of these resources such as predation risk or competition. In arid Australia, introduced predators are thought to be the primary cause of mammal extinction and reintroduction failure although habitat clearance and alteration are also major causes of population decline. Common brushtail possums are one arid Australian marsupial close to regional extinction. To understand whether habitat quality was limiting their recovery, we reintroduced 148 possums into an area where introduced red foxes were controlled but historic overgrazing had degraded the habitat. We measured both direct (hollow availability, midstorey cover and high‐quality plant foods) and indirect (survival, condition, reproduction, movement) measures of habitat quality. Sixty‐seven released possums and 26 post‐release recruits were radiocollared for up to 2 years after release. Post‐release survival of radiocollared possums was high after 12 months (0.70), and there were no deaths from starvation. Predation by feral cats was the most common cause of mortality, and the open, degraded habitat may have exacerbated predation risk. Continuous breeding, good body condition and comparative home ranges with other sites suggested that food resources were not limiting. Possums used natural tree hollows in Eucalyptus spp. with no use of artificial nest boxes. Results suggest that historically degraded habitat was not a barrier to short‐term reintroduction success when foxes were controlled and natural tree hollows were plentiful. However, demographic data on hollow‐bearing tree species suggest a possible future decline in availability of hollows. These factors, combined with the unknown effects of drought, and synergistic effects of predation and poor quality habitat, suggest long‐term reintroduction success may require improved habitat and cat control.     

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.     

Density dependence in an island population of silvereyes

The population of silvereyes Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus , on Heron Island, Great Barrier Reef has been monitored accurately since 1965. Between 1979 and 1993, the breeding success of all birds was determined by monitoring nests. The population fluctuated between 225 and 483 individuals. Four cyclones led to substantial mortality. As this data set is long-term, has little observation error, and is from an effectively closed population, it provides an unusual opportunity to examine density dependence in reproduction or mortality. Using a stochastic logistic model, we found clear evidence of density dependence in adult population size. Logistic regression suggested that fledgling survival decreased with the numbers of birds attempting to breed. There was also some suggestion that adult survival might be density dependent. The fitted stochastic logistic model predicts negligible risks of extinction for this population, in contrast to the predictions of a published population viability analysis. Whilst our statistical model including density dependence may provide better predictions of the "usual" behaviour of a population than a population viability analysis, we suggest that caution should be exercised when statistically fitted models are used to predict the behaviour of the population at extremes, such as near extinction.     

Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming?

Models that couple habitat suitability with demographic processes offer a potentially improved approach for estimating spatial distributional shifts and extinction risk under climate change. Applying such an approach to five species of Australian plants with contrasting demographic traits, we show that: (i) predicted climate‐driven changes in range area are sensitive to the underlying habitat model, regardless of whether demographic traits and their interaction with habitat patch configuration are modeled explicitly; and (ii) caution should be exercised when using predicted changes in total habitat suitability or geographic extent to infer extinction risk, because the relationship between these metrics is often weak. Measures of extinction risk, which quantify threats to population persistence, are particularly sensitive to life‐history traits, such as recruitment response to fire, which explained approximately 60% of the deviance in expected minimum abundance. Dispersal dynamics and habitat patch structure have the strongest influence on the amount of movement of the trailing and leading edge of the range margin, explaining roughly 40% of modeled structural deviance. These results underscore the need to consider direct measures of extinction risk (population declines and other measures of stochastic viability), as well as measures of change in habitat area, when assessing climate change impacts on biodiversity. Furthermore, direct estimation of extinction risk incorporates important demographic and ecosystem processes, which potentially influence species’ vulnerability to extinction due to climate change.     

Patterns and processes of population dynamics with fluctuating habitat size: a case study of a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools

The logistic model is a fundamental population model often used as the basis for analyzing wildlife population dynamics. In the classic logistic model, however, population dynamics may be difficult to characterize if habitat size is temporally variable because population density can vary at a constant abundance, which results in variable strength of density‐dependent feedback for a given population size. To incorporate habitat size variability, we developed a general population model in which changes in population abundance, density, and habitat size are taken into account. From this model, we deduced several predictions for patterns and processes of population dynamics: 1) patterns of fluctuation in population abundance and density can diverge, with respect of their correlation and relative variability; and 2) along with density dependence, habitat size fluctuation can affect population growth with a time lag because changes in habitat size result in changes in population density. In order to test these predictions, we applied our model to population dynamics data of 36 populations of Tigriopus japonicus, a marine copepod inhabiting tide pools of variable sizes caused by weather processes. As expected, we found a significant difference in the fluctuation patterns of population abundance and density of T. japonicus populations with respect to the correlation between abundance and density and their relative variability, which correlates positively with the variability of habitat size. In addition, we found direct and lagged‐indirect effects of weather processes on population growth, which were associated with density dependence and impose regulatory forces on local and regional population dynamics. These results illustrate how changes in habitat size can have an impact on patterns and processes of wildlife population dynamics. We suggest that without knowledge of habitat size fluctuation, measures of population size and its variability as well as inferences about the processes of population dynamics may be misleading.     

Bottlenecks in large populations: the effect of immigration on population viability

We model a large population that is subject to successive short bottlenecks, in order to investigate the impact of different extents of immigration on the change in genetic load and on viability. A first simple genetic model uncovers the opposite effects of immigration on fitness according to the type of deleterious mutations considered: immigration increases fitness if the genetic load is comprised of mildly deleterious mutations, whereas it decreases fitness if it is comprised of lethals. When considering both types of mutations and adding explicit stochastic demographic considerations, in which bottlenecks are engendered by random catastrophes, the global impact of immigration on viability is dependent upon a balance between its opposite effects on the two components of the genetic load and on demographic stochasticity. In this context, immigration tends to increase the probability of extinction if occurring preferentially when population density is high, while it decreases extinction if occurring preferentially towards low-density populations.     

Vegetation Recovery 16 Years after Feral Pig Removal from a Wet Hawaiian Forest

Nonnative ungulates can alter the structure and function of forest ecosystems. Feral pigs in particular pose a substantial threat to native plant communities throughout their global range. Hawaiian forests are exceptionally vulnerable to feral pig activity because native vegetation evolved in the absence of large mammalian herbivores. A common approach for conserving and restoring forests in Hawaii is fencing and removal of feral pigs. The extent of native plant community recovery and nonnative plant invasion following pig removal, however, is largely unknown. Our objective was to quantify changes in native and nonnative understory vegetation over a 16 yr period in adjacent fenced (pig‐free) vs. unfenced (pig‐present) Hawaiian montane wet forest. Native and nonnative understory vegetation responded strongly to feral pig removal. Density of native woody plants rooted in mineral soil increased sixfold in pig‐free sites over 16 yr, whereas establishment was almost exclusively restricted to epiphytes in pig‐present sites. Stem density of young tree ferns increased significantly (51.2%) in pig‐free, but not pig‐present sites. Herbaceous cover decreased over time in pig‐present sites (67.9%). In both treatments, number of species remained constant and native woody plant establishment was limited to commonly occurring species. The nonnative invasive shrub, Psidium cattleianum, responded positively to release from pig disturbance with a fivefold increase in density in pig‐free sites. These results suggest that while common native understory plants recover within 16 yr of pig removal, control of nonnative plants and outplanting of rarer native species are necessary components of sustainable conservation and restoration efforts in these forests.     

Evaluation of alternate harvesting strategies using experimental microcosms

Experimental evidence to evaluate alternate conservation policies for harvested populations is currently meager. We used populations of the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila growing in test tube microcosms to experimentally evaluate the effects of alternate harvesting policies in a controlled, replicable setting. Simple density-dependent models were effective in predicting patterns of ciliate population growth in the microcosms. We evaluated several univariate models, finding that a Ricker logistic model was a better predictor of ciliate population dynamics than Gompertz logistic, non-linear logistic, or random walk models. Using the Ricker logistic model as a demographic skeleton, we modeled ciliate population dynamics with respect to three alternate harvesting policies (fixed quota, fixed proportion, and fixed escapement), each conducted at four comparable levels of harvest intensity. The parameterized demographic models predicted that fixed quota harvesting would lead to lower mean ciliate abundance and higher temporal variability in ciliate abundance than fixed proportion or fixed escapement policies, with an appreciable risk of extinction, even under the controlled environmental conditions of our experimental system. For each harvesting policy, the intensity of harvest had demonstrable effects on population density. Population variability was higher for fixed quota harvesting than the other policies. The stochastic demographic model successfully predicted heightened extinction risk in the fixed quota system, relative to the other management treatments. Our experimental evidence lends support to the theoretical prediction that fixed quota harvesting is riskier than fixed proportion or fixed escapement policies.     

生境破碎化对生物多样性的影响

生境破碎化对生物多样性和生态系统功能的影响是当前国内外生态学家研究的热点问题之一。生境破碎化导致原生境的总面积减小,产生隔离的异质种群,从而影响个体行为特性、种群间基因交换、物种间相互作用及生态过程。生境破碎化的过程引起栖息地内部食物、繁殖场所、局部小气候、边缘效应等生物和非生物条件的变化,从而影响植物种群的大小和灭绝速率、扩散和迁入、遗传和变异以及存活力等,影响动物种群的异质种群动态、适宜生境比例、灭绝阈值、种间关系等。随着景观生态学与农业科学的融合,探索利用景观布局控制害虫发生将是人类利用生境破碎化为人类服务的一条新途径。     

Non‐neutrality in forest communities: evolutionary and ecological determinants of tree species abundance distributions

The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography provides a promising framework that can be used to integrate stochastic and ecological processes operating in ecological communities. Based on a mechanistic non‐neutral model that incorporates density‐dependent mortality, we evaluated the deviation from a neutral pattern in tree species abundance distributions and explored the signatures of historical and ecological processes that have shaped forest biomes. We compiled a dataset documenting species abundance distributions in 1168 plots encompassing 16 973 tree species across tropical, temperate, and boreal forests. We tested whether deviations from neutrality of species abundance distributions vary with climatic and historical conditions, and whether these patterns differ among regions. Non‐neutrality in species abundance distributions was ubiquitous in tropical, temperate, and boreal forests, and regional differences in patterns of non‐neutrality were significant between biomes. Species abundance evenness/unevenness caused by negative density‐dependent or abiotic filtering effects had no clear macro‐scale climatic drivers, although temperature was non‐linearly correlated with species abundance unevenness on a global scale. These findings were not significantly biased by heterogeneity of plot data (the differences of plot area, measurement size, species richness, and the number of individuals sampled). Therefore, our results suggest that environmental filtering is not universally increasing from warm tropical to cold boreal forests, but might affect differently tree species assembly between and within biomes. Ecological processes generating particularly dominant species in local communities might be idiosyncratic or region‐specific and may be associated with geography and climate. Our study illustrates that stochastic dynamical models enable the analysis of the interplay of historical and ecological processes that influence community assemblies and the dynamics of biodiversity.     

Connecting scales: Achieving in‐field pest control from areawide and landscape ecology studies

Areawide management has a long history of achieving solutions that target pests, however, there has been little focus on the areawide management of arthropod natural enemies. Landscape ecology studies that show a positive relationship between natural enemy abundance and habitat diversity demonstrate landscape‐dependent pest suppression, but have not yet clearly linked their findings to pest management or to the suite of pests associated with crops that require control. Instead the focus has often been on model systems of single pest species and their natural enemies. We suggest that management actions to capture pest control from natural enemies may be forth coming if: (i) the suite of response and predictor variables focus on pest complexes and specific management actions; (ii) the contribution of “the landscape” is identified by assessing the timing and numbers of natural enemies immigrating and emigrating to and from the target crop, as well as pests; and (iii) pest control thresholds aligned with crop development stages are the benchmark to measure impact of natural enemies on pests, in turn allowing for comparison between study regions, and generalizations. To achieve pest control we will need to incorporate what has been learned from an ecological understanding of model pest and natural enemy systems and integrate areawide landscape management with in‐field pest management.     

Experimental demonstration of accelerated extinction in source‐sink metapopulations

Population extinction is a fundamental ecological process which may be aggravated by the exchange of organisms between productive (source) and unproductive (sink) habitat patches. The extent to which such source‐sink exchange affects extinction rates is unknown. We conducted an experiment in which metapopulation effects could be distinguished from source‐sink effects in laboratory populations of Daphnia magna. Time‐to‐extinction in this experiment was maximized at intermediate levels of habitat fragmentation, which is consistent with a minority of theoretical models. These results provided a baseline for comparison with experimental treatments designed to detect effects of concentrating resources in source patches. These treatments showed that source‐sink configurations increased population variability (the coefficient of variation in abundance) and extinction hazard compared with homogeneous environments. These results suggest that where environments are spatially heterogeneous, accurate assessments of extinction risk will require understanding the exchange of organisms among population sources and sinks. Such heterogeneity may be the norm rather than the exception because of both the intrinsic heterogeneity naturally exhibited by ecosystems and increasing habitat fragmentation by human activity.     

Carrying capacity and demographic stochasticity: scaling behavior of the stochastic logistic model

The stochastic logistic model is the simplest model that combines individual-level demography with density dependence. It explicitly or implicitly underlies many models of biodiversity of competing species, as well as non-spatial or metapopulation models of persistence of individual species. The model has also been used to study persistence in simple disease models. The stochastic logistic model has direct relevance for questions of limiting similarity in ecological systems. This paper uses a biased random walk heuristic to derive a scaling relationship for the persistence of a population under this model, and discusses its implications for models of biodiversity and persistence. Time to extinction of a species under the stochastic logistic model is approximated by the exponential of the scaling quantity U=(R-1)(2) N/R(R+1), where N is the habitat size and R is the basic reproductive number.     

Population dynamics can be more important than physiological limits for determining range shifts under climate change

Evidence is accumulating that species' responses to climate changes are best predicted by modelling the interaction of physiological limits, biotic processes and the effects of dispersal‐limitation. Using commercially harvested blacklip (Haliotis rubra) and greenlip abalone (Haliotis laevigata) as case studies, we determine the relative importance of accounting for interactions among physiology, metapopulation dynamics and exploitation in predictions of range (geographical occupancy) and abundance (spatially explicit density) under various climate change scenarios. Traditional correlative ecological niche models (ENM) predict that climate change will benefit the commercial exploitation of abalone by promoting increased abundances without any reduction in range size. However, models that account simultaneously for demographic processes and physiological responses to climate‐related factors result in future (and present) estimates of area of occupancy (AOO) and abundance that differ from those generated by ENMs alone. Range expansion and population growth are unlikely for blacklip abalone because of important interactions between climate‐dependent mortality and metapopulation processes; in contrast, greenlip abalone should increase in abundance despite a contraction in AOO. The strongly non‐linear relationship between abalone population size and AOO has important ramifications for the use of ENM predictions that rely on metrics describing change in habitat area as proxies for extinction risk. These results show that predicting species' responses to climate change often require physiological information to understand climatic range determinants, and a metapopulation model that can make full use of this data to more realistically account for processes such as local extirpation, demographic rescue, source‐sink dynamics and dispersal‐limitation.     

Fish species richness in spring‐fed ponds: effects of habitat size versus isolation in temporally variable environments

1. Species richness in a habitat patch is determined by immigration (regional) and extinction (local) processes, and understanding their relative importance is crucial for conservation of biodiversity. In this study, we applied the Island Biogeography concept to spring ponds connected to a river in southwestern Japan to examine how immigration and extinction processes interact to determine fish species richness in temporally variable environments. 2. Fish censuses were conducted 15 times in 13 study ponds at 1–4 month intervals from August 1998 through October 2000. Effects of habitat size (pond area), isolation (distance from the river) and temporal environmental variability (water level fluctuation) on (i) species richness, (ii) immigration and extinction rates and (iii) population size and persistence of each fish species were assessed. 3. The results revealed predominant effects of distance on species richness, immigration/extinction rates and population size and persistence. Species richness decreased with increasing distance but was not related to either pond area or water level fluctuation. A negative effect of distance on immigration rate was detected, while neither pond area nor water level fluctuation had significant effects on extinction rate. Further, population size and persistence of four species increased with decreasing distance, suggesting that, in ponds close to the river, immigrants from the river reduce the probability of extinction (i.e. provide a rescue effect), contributing to the maintenance of high species richness. 4. Overall results emphasise the importance of immigration processes, rather than extinction, in shaping patterns of species richness in our system. The predominant importance of immigration was probably because of (i) high temporal variability that negates habitat‐size effects and (ii) continuous immigration that easily compensates for local extinctions. Our results suggest that consideration of regional factors (e.g. connectivity, locations of source populations and barriers to colonisation) is crucial for conservation and restoration of local habitats.     

Immigration can destabilize tri-trophic interactions: implications for conservation of top predators

Top predators often have large home ranges and thus are especially vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Increasing connectance among habitat patches is therefore a common conservation strategy, based in part on models showing that increased migration between subpopulations can reduce vulnerability arising from population isolation. Although three-dimensional models are appropriate for exploring consequences to top predators, the effects of immigration on tri-trophic interactions have rarely been considered. To explore the effects of immigration on the equilibrium abundances of top predators, we studied the effects of immigration in the three-dimensional Rosenzweig-MacArthur model. To investigate the stability of the top predator equilibrium, we used MATCONT to perform a bifurcation analysis. For some combinations of model parameters with low rates of top predator immigration, population trajectories spiral towards a stable focus. Holding other parameters constant, as immigration rate is increased, a supercritical Hopf bifurcation results in a stable limit cycle and thus top predator populations that cycle between high and low abundances. Furthermore, bistability arises as immigration of the intermediate predator is increased. In this case, top predators may exist at relatively low abundances while prey become extinct, or for other initial conditions, the relatively higher top predator abundance controls intermediate predators allowing for non-zero prey population abundance and increased diversity. Thus, our results reveal one of two outcomes when immigration is added to the model. First, over some range of top predator immigration rates, population abundance cycles between high and low values, making extinction from the trough of such cycles more likely than otherwise. Second, for relatively higher intermediate predator migration rates, top predators may exist at low values in a truncated system with impoverished diversity, again with extinction more likely.     

Jaguar Panthera onca Habitat Modeling in Landscapes Facing High Land‐use Transformation Pressure—Findings from Mato Grosso,Brazil

The modeling of top predators' habitats and the understanding of their environmental requirements in landscapes facing high land‐use transformation pressure have long‐standing importance for the development of conservation strategies. Multi‐distance spatial cluster analysis and logistic regression with environmental weighting for pseudo‐absence designation were applied to understand spatial patterns of jaguar occurrence in Mato Grosso state (Central Western Brazil). This location has been under intense deforestation pressure since the 1970s and is historically one of the most important jaguar habitats in the world. By using a model of five independent variables, we were able to achieve a 73.2 percent success rate of case/non‐case classification and indicate not only a general loss of habitat suitability, but also an increasing interruption of potential migration corridors in the state. Our analysis on a regional scale demonstrates the importance of forest and savannah woodland for jaguar habitat maintenance in the Mato Grosso state. The jaguar species demonstrates a sensitivity to landscape fragmentation, which can be parameterized for improved model building by metrics such as edge density and patch size. Comparisons with previous studies in South America show that parameter selection for jaguar habitat modeling is highly scale‐dependent and that habitat suitability in partially transformed landscapes could be maintained if fragmentation is minimized. Recent land‐use transformation, however, has significantly weakened the conservation status of the Pantanal‐Amazon corridor.