共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Andreia Dias Luís Palma Filipe Carvalho Dora Neto Joan Real Pedro Beja 《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(12):4241-4253
Species ranges often change in relation to multiple environmental and demographic factors. Innovative behaviors may affect these changes by facilitating the use of novel habitats, although this idea has been little explored. Here, we investigate the importance of behavior during range change, using a 25‐year population expansion of Bonelli's eagle in southern Portugal. This unique population is almost exclusively tree nesting, while all other populations in western Europe are predominantly cliff nesting. During 1991–2014, we surveyed nest sites and estimated the year when each breeding territory was established. We approximated the boundaries of 84 territories using Dirichlet tessellation and mapped topography, land cover, and the density of human infrastructures in buffers (250, 500, and 1,000 m) around nest and random sites. We then compared environmental conditions at matching nest and random sites within territories using conditional logistic regression, and used quantile regression to estimate trends in nesting habitats in relation to the year of territory establishment. Most nests (>85%, n = 197) were in eucalypts, maritime pines, and cork oaks. Nest sites were farther from the nests of neighboring territories than random points, and they were in areas with higher terrain roughness, lower cover by agricultural and built‐up areas, and lower road and powerline densities. Nesting habitat selection varied little with year of territory establishment, although nesting in eucalypts increased, while cliff nesting and cork oak nesting, and terrain roughness declined. Our results suggest that the observed expansion of Bonelli's eagles was facilitated by the tree nesting behavior, which allowed the colonization of areas without cliffs. However, all but a very few breeding pairs settled in habitats comparable to those of the initial population nucleus, suggesting that after an initial trigger possibly facilitated by tree nesting, the habitat selection remained largely conservative. Overall, our study supports recent calls to incorporate information on behavior for understanding and predicting species range shifts. 相似文献
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Natalie J. Briscoe Michael R. Kearney Chris A. Taylor Brendan A. Wintle 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(7):2425-2439
Climate refugia are regions that animals can retreat to, persist in and potentially then expand from under changing environmental conditions. Most forecasts of climate change refugia for species are based on correlative species distribution models (SDMs) using long‐term climate averages, projected to future climate scenarios. Limitations of such methods include the need to extrapolate into novel environments and uncertainty regarding the extent to which proximate variables included in the model capture processes driving distribution limits (and thus can be assumed to provide reliable predictions under new conditions). These limitations are well documented; however, their impact on the quality of climate refugia predictions is difficult to quantify. Here, we develop a detailed bioenergetics model for the koala. It indicates that range limits are driven by heat‐induced water stress, with the timing of rainfall and heat waves limiting the koala in the warmer parts of its range. We compare refugia predictions from the bioenergetics model with predictions from a suite of competing correlative SDMs under a range of future climate scenarios. SDMs were fitted using combinations of long‐term climate and weather extremes variables, to test how well each set of predictions captures the knowledge embedded in the bioenergetics model. Correlative models produced broadly similar predictions to the bioenergetics model across much of the species' current range – with SDMs that included weather extremes showing highest congruence. However, predictions in some regions diverged significantly when projecting to future climates due to the breakdown in correlation between climate variables. We provide unique insight into the mechanisms driving koala distribution and illustrate the importance of subtle relationships between the timing of weather events, particularly rain relative to hot‐spells, in driving species–climate relationships and distributions. By unpacking the mechanisms captured by correlative SDMs, we can increase our certainty in forecasts of climate change impacts on species. 相似文献
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Tiago Silveira Vasconcelos Caio Pastana Antonelli Marcelo Felgueiras Napoli 《Austral ecology》2017,42(7):869-877
Ecological niche models, or species distribution models, have been widely used to identify potentially suitable areas for species in future climate change scenarios. However, there are inherent errors to these models due to their inability to evaluate species occurrence influenced by non‐climatic factors. With the intuit to improve the modelling predictions for a bromeliad‐breeding treefrog (Phyllodytes melanomystax, Hylidae), we investigate how the climatic suitability of bromeliads influences the distribution model for the treefrog in the context of baseline and 2050 climate change scenarios. We used point occurrence data on the frog and the bromeliad (Vriesea procera, Bromeliaceae) to generate their predicted distributions based on baseline and 2050 climates. Using a consensus of five algorithms, we compared the accuracy of the models and the geographic predictions for the frog generated from two modelling procedures: (i) a climate‐only model for P. melanomystax and V. procera; and (ii) a climate‐biotic model for P. melanomystax, in which the climatic suitability of the bromeliad was jointly considered with the climatic variables. Both modelling approaches generated strong and similar predictive power for P. melanomystax, yet climate‐biotic modelling generated more concise predictions, particularly for the year 2050. Specifically, because the predicted area of the bromeliad overlaps with the predictions for the treefrog in the baseline climate, both modelling approaches produce reasonable similar predicted areas for the anuran. Alternatively, due to the predicted loss of northern climatically suitable areas for the bromeliad by 2050, only the climate‐biotic models provide evidence that northern populations of P. melanomystax will likely be negatively affected by 2050. 相似文献
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Ramón Gallego Todd E. Dennis Zeenatul Basher Shane Lavery Mary A. Sewell 《Journal of Biogeography》2017,44(10):2165-2175
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Arnald Marcer Belén Méndez‐Vigo Carlos Alonso‐Blanco F. Xavier Picó 《Ecology and evolution》2016,6(7):2084-2097
Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units. 相似文献
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Winters have become warmer under the impact of climate change, which has modified the phenology as well as the distribution ranges of birds. The African Long‐legged Buzzard Buteo rufinus cirtensis has recently colonized Europe via the Strait of Gibraltar. We aim to explain the native distribution of this species and to predict favourable areas in newly colonized parts of Europe using geospatial modelling to identify the most influential factors in this process. We applied the favourability function, a generalized linear model describing environmental favourability, for the presence/absence of breeding areas in northern Morocco and the southern Iberian Peninsula, according to a set of variables describing climate, topography, human activity, vegetation and purely spatial trends. A model was built using some known breeding sites in northern Morocco, and was used to forecast future suitable breeding areas in Europe. A second model was built with the available data for northern Morocco and Europe to explain the current distribution of breeding sites. Both models were assessed according to discrimination, calibration and parsimony criteria, and the influence of each factor was analysed using variation partitioning. We conclude that the Iberian Peninsula could provide new suitable areas for the species and facilitate its northward expansion. This result, together with the increasing number of records available, suggests that this species could soon spread throughout Europe. Steady temperatures and abundant but seasonally distributed precipitation showed the strongest predictive power in the models. This indicates a close relationship between the species’ distribution and climate in the study area, and suggests that this species finds its most favourable environments in the Mediterranean biome. Topography and vegetation, specifically cliffs and woods near hunting zones, point to a fine‐scale habitat selection for breeding. As the case of the African Long‐legged Buzzard is not a unique event, our results may be useful to determine whether a northward expansion of the Mediterranean biome could be followed by distribution shifts of bird species that have so far been restricted to Africa. 相似文献
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H. Romo E. García-Barros R. J. Wilson R. G. Mateo M. L. Munguira 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2023,16(4):451-467
- Taxa restricted to mountains may be vulnerable to global warming, unless local-scale topographic variation and conservation actions can protect them against expected changes to the climate.
- We tested how climate change will affect the 19 mountain-restricted Erebia species of the Iberian Peninsula, of which 7 are endemic.
- To examine the scope for local topographic variation to protect against warming, we applied species distribution models (HadGEM2 and MPI) at two spatial scales (10 × 10 and 1 × 1 km) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070. We also superimposed current and future ranges on the protected area (PA) network to identify priority areas for adapting Erebia conservation to climate change.
- In 10 × 10 km HadGEM2 models, climatically suitable areas for all species decreased in 2050 and 2070 (average −95.7%). Modelled decreases at 1 × 1 km were marginally less drastic (−95.3%), and 14 out of 19 species were still expected to lose their entire climatically favourable range by 2070.
- The PA network is well located to conserve the species that are expected to retain some climatically suitable areas in 2070. However, we identify 25 separate 10 × 10 km squares where new PAs would help to adapt the network to expected range shifts or contractions by Erebia.
- Based on our results, adapting the conservation of range-restricted mountain taxa to projected climate change will require the implementation of complementary in situ and ex situ measures alongside urgent climate change mitigation.
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Understanding the capacity for different species to reduce their susceptibility to climate change via phenotypic plasticity is essential for accurately predicting species extinction risk. The climatic variability hypothesis suggests that spatial and temporal variation in climatic variables should select for more plastic phenotypes. However, empirical support for this hypothesis is limited. Here, we examine the capacity for ten Drosophila species to increase their critical thermal maxima (CTMAX) through developmental acclimation and/or adult heat hardening. Using four fluctuating developmental temperature regimes, ranging from 13 to 33 °C, we find that most species can increase their CTMAX via developmental acclimation and adult hardening, but found no relationship between climatic variables and absolute measures of plasticity. However, when plasticity was dissected across developmental temperatures, a positive association between plasticity and one measure of climatic variability (temperature seasonality) was found when development took place between 26 and 28 °C, whereas a negative relationship was found when development took place between 20 and 23 °C. In addition, a decline in CTMAX and egg‐to‐adult viability, a proxy for fitness, was observed in tropical species at the warmer developmental temperatures (26–28 °C); this suggests that tropical species may be at even greater risk from climate change than currently predicted. The combined effects of developmental acclimation and adult hardening on CTMAX were small, contributing to a <0.60 °C shift in CTMAX. Although small shifts in CTMAX may increase population persistence in the shorter term, the degree to which they can contribute to meaningful responses in the long term is unclear. 相似文献
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Marta Benito Garzón Ricardo Alía T. Matthew Robson Miguel A. Zavala 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2011,20(5):766-778
Aim To assess the effect of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity on the potential distribution of species under future climate changes. Trees may be adapted to specific climatic conditions; however, species range predictions have classically been assessed by species distribution models (SDMs) that do not account for intra‐specific genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity, because SDMs rely on the assumption that species respond homogeneously to climate change across their range, i.e. a species is equally adapted throughout its range, and all species are equally plastic. These assumptions could cause SDMs to exaggerate or underestimate species at risk under future climate change. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods Species distributions are predicted by integrating experimental data and modelling techniques. We incorporate plasticity and local adaptation into a SDM by calibrating models of tree survivorship with adaptive traits in provenance trials. Phenotypic plasticity was incorporated by calibrating our model with a climatic index that provides a measure of the differences between sites and provenances. Results We present a new modelling approach that is easy to implement and makes use of existing tree provenance trials to predict species distribution models under global warming. Our results indicate that the incorporation of intra‐population genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity in SDMs significantly altered their outcome. In comparing species range predictions, the decrease in area occupancy under global warming conditions is smaller when considering our survival–adaptation model than that predicted by a ‘classical SDM’ calibrated with presence–absence data. These differences in survivorship are due to both local adaptation and plasticity. Differences due to the use of experimental data in the model calibration are also expressed in our results: we incorporate a null model that uses survival data from all provenances together. This model always predicts less reduction in area occupancy for both species than the SDM calibrated with presence–absence. Main conclusions We reaffirm the importance of considering adaptive traits when predicting species distributions and avoiding the use of occurrence data as a predictive variable. In light of these recommendations, we advise that existing predictions of future species distributions and their component populations must be reconsidered. 相似文献
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DAVID SÁNCHEZ‐FERNÁNDEZ JORGE M. LOBO PEDRO ABELLÁN ANDRÉS MILLÁN 《Biological journal of the Linnean Society. Linnean Society of London》2011,103(4):891-903
Historically, there has been considerable disagreement between researchers about the criteria used to discriminate among species. Decisions based on traditional morphological and genetic data alone can be potentially problematic, especially if the hypotheses are contradictory. Today, taxonomy is integrating new methods from different disciplines that study species' limits and evolution; this diverse range of evidence aids researchers in the recognition of species. Differences in niche characteristics could become a new and useful criterion in helping to decide the status of conflicting taxonomical entities. Ochthebius glaber (family Hydraenidae) is an endangered water beetle typical from southeast Iberian hypersaline streams that shows three clear discrete genetic units within its distribution range. However, there is no evidence to date that these lineages of O. glaber exhibit any adaptive morphological or ecological divergence. Using a modelling approach directed to generate niche representation from distributional data, we found a significant environmental niche divergence for allopatric lineages of O. glaber that followed an aridity gradient. Although we can not conclude firmly at present that the separate populations of O. glaber studied represent separate, reproductively isolated species, the present study complements and supports previous phylogeographic analyses through the inclusion of measures of another form of evolutionary change; in this case, ecological diversification. Despite the existence of some methodological limitations, also discussed in the present study, we emphasize the importance of recent conceptual advances that allow taxonomy to improve species delimitation practices through the integration of theory and methods from disciplines that study the origin and evolution of species. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 103 , 891–903. 相似文献
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Kyle C. Cavanaugh John D. Parker Susan C. Cook‐Patton Ilka C. Feller A. Park Williams James R. Kellner 《Global Change Biology》2015,21(5):1928-1938
Predictions of climate‐related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr?1 over the next 50 years. 相似文献
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Ana S. Bessa Joo Carvalho Alberto Gomes Frederico Santarm 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2016,9(1):27-37
- The yellow‐legged hornet (Vespa velutina nigrithorax) has been identified as a major threat to European entomofauna. Species distribution models have been used to assess its invasiveness risk. No studies were, however, developed specifically for peripheral regions, where unique biodiversity can be threatened by this species.
- This study aims to address that particular issue by incorporating non‐commonly used drivers and by forecasting regions in Iberian Peninsula where the species has high risk of expansion. Climatic, anthropogenic and land‐use variables were considered. The species potential distribution was assessed using a generalised linear model.
- Overall, the model predicted the northern regions of the Iberian Peninsula suitable for the species expansion. Only the driest regions at the south are conservatively predicted to not be occupied by the yellow‐legged hornet. Precipitation and temperature have the highest influence in Vespa velutina nigrithorax distribution, with land‐use also playing an important role in its expansion at regional scale.
- These results highlighted the threat of this species to beekeeping activities. Due to high species richness and endemicity levels, peripheral regions integrated in Biodiversity Hotspots need special attention and control measures.
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Emily A. Berzitis Jordan N. Minigan Rebecca H. Hallett Jonathan A. Newman 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(9):2778-2792
The bean leaf beetle, Cerotoma trifurcata, has become a major pest of soybean throughout its North American range. With a changing climate, there is the potential for this pest to further expand its distribution and become an increasingly severe pest in certain regions. To examine this possibility, we developed bioclimatic envelope models for both the bean leaf beetle, and its most important agronomic host plant, soybean (Glycine max). These two models were combined to examine the potential future pest status of the beetle using climate change projections from multiple general circulation models (GCMs) and climate change scenarios. Despite the broad tolerances of soybean, incorporation of host plant availability substantially decreased the suitable and favourable areas for the bean leaf beetle as compared to an evaluation based solely on the climate envelope of the beetle, demonstrating the importance of incorporating biotic interactions in these predictions. The use of multiple GCM–scenario combinations also revealed differences in predictions depending on the choice of GCM, with scenario choice having less of an impact. While the Norwegian model predicted little northward expansion of the beetle from its current northern range limit of southern Ontario and overall decreases in suitable and favourable areas over time, the Canadian and Russian models predict that much of Ontario and Quebec will become suitable for the beetle in the future, as well as Manitoba under the Russian model. The Russian model also predicts expansion of the suitable and favourable areas for the beetle over time. Two predictions that do not depend on our choice of GCM include a decrease in suitability of the Mississippi Delta region and continued favourability of the southeastern United States. 相似文献