Predicting the distribution of a suitable habitat for the white stork in Southern Sweden: identifying priority areas for reintroduction and habitat restoration

The loss of wetlands and semi-natural grasslands throughout much of Europe has led to a historic decline of species associated with these habitats. The reinstatement of these habitats, however, requires spatially explicit predictions of the most suitable sites for restoration, to maximize the ecological benefit per unit effort. One species that demonstrates such declines is the white stork Ciconia ciconia , and the restoration of habitat for this flagship species is likely to benefit a suite of other wetland and grassland biota. Storks are also being reintroduced into southern Sweden and elsewhere, and the a priori identification of suitable sites for reintroduction will greatly improve the success of such programmes. Here a simple predictive habitat-use model was developed, where only a small but reliable presence-only dataset was available. The model is based on the extent and relative soil moisture of semi-natural pastures, the extent of wetlands and the extent of hayfields in southern Sweden. Here the model was used to predict the current extent of stork habitat that is suitable for successful breeding, and the extent of habitat that would become suitable with moderate habitat restoration. The habitat model identifies all 10 occupied nesting sites where breeding is currently successful. It also identifies ∼300 km² of habitat that is predicted to be suitable stork habitat, but that is presently unused; these sites were identified as potential areas for stork reintroduction. The model also identifies over 100 areas where moderate habitat restoration is predicted to have a disproportionate effect (relative to the restoration effort) on the area of suitable habitat for storks; these sites were identified as priorities for habitat restoration. By identifying areas for reintroduction and restoration, such habitat suitability models have the potential to maximize the effectiveness of such conservation programmes.     

Determining habitat quality for the cooperatively breeding Rufous Treecreeper,Climacteris rufa

Abstract The theory of habitat selection predicts that organisms should use habitat that maximizes their fitness. The cooperatively breeding Rufous Treecreeper, Climacteris rufa, exhibits non‐random habitat use at a number of spatial scales. By assessing correlative relationships between nest‐site use and nest success, and territory use and reproductive success and survival, it was determined whether non‐random use of habitat yields fitness benefits. It was also determined whether breeding group size contributed significantly to fitness once differences in territory quality had been considered. Structural characteristics of nest sites that were positively correlated with the probability of a site being used had no relationship with nest success. This result probably reflects the relatively unrestricted access to an abundance of suitable nest sites in the study area. Habitat traits that predicted territory use by treecreepers were positively correlated with a number of fitness measures. They were also positively correlated with breeding group size and provisioning rate to nestlings, which in turn were correlated with fitness. However, group size was not significantly related to any measure of fitness, except primary male survival, once territory quality had been considered. The quality of territories occupied by Rufous Treecreepers appeared to be a significant factor for breeding group fitness.     

Effects of species and habitat positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models

Aim A key assumption in species distribution modelling is that both species and environmental data layers contain no positional errors, yet this will rarely be true. This study assesses the effect of introduced positional errors on the performance and interpretation of species distribution models. Location Baixo Alentejo region of Portugal. Methods Data on steppe bird occurrence were collected using a random stratified sampling design on a 1‐km² pixel grid. Environmental data were sourced from satellite imagery and digital maps. Error was deliberately introduced into the species data as shifts in a random direction of 0–1, 2–3, 4–5 and 0–5 pixels. Whole habitat layers were shifted by 1 pixel to cause mis‐registration, and the cumulative effect of one to three shifted layers investigated. Distribution models were built for three species using three algorithms with three replicates. Test models were compared with controls without errors. Results Positional errors in the species data led to a drop in model performance (larger errors having larger effects – typically up to 10% drop in area under the curve on average), although not enough for models to be rejected. Model interpretation was more severely affected with inconsistencies in the contributing variables. Errors in the habitat layers had similar although lesser effects. Main conclusions Models with species positional errors are hard to detect, often statistically good, ecologically plausible and useful for prediction, but interpreting them is dangerous. Mis‐registered habitat layers produce smaller effects probably because shifting entire layers does not break down the correlation structure to the same extent as random shifts in individual species observations. Spatial autocorrelation in the habitat layers may protect against species positional errors to some extent but the relationship is complex and requires further work. The key recommendation must be that positional errors should be minimised through careful field design and data processing.     

Foraging habitat selection by Little Terns Sternula albifrons in an estuarine lagoon system of southern Portugal

We assessed the effects of environmental variables on the distribution and feeding behaviour of adult Little Terns Sternula albifrons in Ria Formosa Natural Park, Algarve, southern Portugal, in different foraging habitats (main lagoon, salinas and sea) during the breeding seasons, April–July, of 2003–05. Foraging density was higher in the lagoon than in the sea, and at low tide. The number of foraging individuals at sea was independent of tide. Individual Little Terns foraged further from the nearest breeding colony in April and May (courtship feeding and incubation) than in June and July (chick-rearing). During intermediate tidal phases, individuals foraged further from the nearest colony, and followed main lagoon channels, perhaps because stronger currents increased prey availability. Diving activity and foraging success were higher in 2003 than 2004 or 2005, perhaps because of greater availability of marine prey in 2003. Diving rate was higher in July (when independent juveniles began learning how to forage) but diving success was higher in June (chick-rearing) than in other months. The variables selected by the final logistic models reflected four basic needs for the selection of feeding habitats by Little Terns: (1) association between foraging individuals, (2) areas with abundant feeding resources, (3) entrance channels and main lagoon channels with strong currents, and (4) the proximity to areas with alternative feeding resources, the salinas. Areas subjected to strong human pressure were avoided by foraging Little Terns.     

Direct and indirect effects of area,energy and habitat heterogeneity on breeding bird communities

Aim To compare the ability of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to explain patterns of species richness and density for breeding bird communities across islands with contrasting characteristics. Location Thirty forested islands in two freshwater lakes in the boreal forest zone of northern Sweden (65°55′ N to 66°09′ N; 17°43′ E to 17°55′ E). Methods We performed bird censuses on 30 lake islands that have each previously been well characterized in terms of size, isolation, habitat heterogeneity (plant diversity and forest age), net primary productivity (NPP), and invertebrate prey abundance. To test the relative abilities of island biogeography theory, niche theory and species–energy theory to describe bird community patterns, we used both traditional statistical approaches (linear and multiple regressions) and structural equation modelling (SEM; in which both direct and indirect influences can be quantified). Results Using regression‐based approaches, area and bird abundance were the two most important predictors of bird species richness. However, when the data were analysed by SEM, area was not found to exert a direct effect on bird species richness. Instead, terrestrial prey abundance was the strongest predictor of bird abundance, and bird abundance in combination with NPP was the best predictor of bird species richness. Area was only of indirect importance through its positive effect on terrestrial prey abundance, but habitat heterogeneity and spatial subsidies (emerging aquatic insects) also showed important indirect influences. Thus, our results provided the strongest support for species–energy theory. Main conclusions Our results suggest that, by using statistical approaches that allow for analyses of both direct and indirect influences, a seemingly direct influence of area on species richness can be explained by greater energy availability on larger islands. As such, animal community patterns that seem to be in line with island biogeography theory may be primarily driven by energy availability. Our results also point to the need to consider several aspects of habitat quality (e.g. heterogeneity, NPP, prey availability and spatial subsidies) for successful management of breeding bird diversity at local spatial scales and in fragmented or insular habitats.     

Mammals of the northern Philippines: tolerance for habitat disturbance and resistance to invasive species in an endemic insular fauna

Aim Island faunas, particularly those with high levels of endemism, usually are considered especially susceptible to disruption from habitat disturbance and invasive alien species. We tested this general hypothesis by examining the distribution of small mammals along gradients of anthropogenic habitat disturbance in northern Luzon Island, an area with a very high level of mammalian endemism. Location Central Cordillera, northern Luzon Island, Philippines. Methods  Using standard trapping techniques, we documented the occurrence and abundance of 16 endemic and two non‐native species along four disturbance gradients where habitat ranged from mature forest to deforested cropland. Using regression analysis and AIC_c for model selection, we assessed the influence of four predictor variables (geographic range, elevational range, body size and diet breadth) on the disturbance tolerance of species. Results Non‐native species dominated areas with the most severe disturbance and were rare or absent in mature forest. Native species richness declined with increasing disturbance level, but responses of individual species varied. Elevational range (a measure of habitat breadth) was the best predictor of response of native species to habitat disturbance. Geographic range, body size and diet breadth were weakly correlated. Main conclusions The endemic small mammal fauna of northern Luzon includes species adapted to varying levels of natural disturbance and appears to be resistant to disruption by resident alien species. In these respects, it resembles a diverse continental fauna rather than a depauperate insular fauna. We conclude that the long and complex history of Luzon as an ancient member of the Philippine island arc system has involved highly dynamic ecological conditions resulting in a biota adapted to changing conditions. We predict that similar responses will be seen in other taxonomic groups and in other ancient island arc systems.     

Health food versus fast food: the effects of prey quality and mobility on prey selection by a generalist predator and indirect interactions among prey species

1. In order to understand the relative importance of prey quality and mobility in indirect interactions among alternative prey that are mediated by a shared natural enemy, the nutritional quality of two common prey for a generalist insect predator along with the predator's relative preference for these prey was determined. 2. Eggs of the corn earworm Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) were nutritionally superior to pea aphids Acyrthosiphum pisum (Homoptera: Aphididae) as prey for big‐eyed bugs Geocoris punctipes (Heteroptera: Geocoridae). Big‐eyed bugs survived four times as long when fed corn earworm eggs than when fed pea aphids. Furthermore, only big‐eyed bugs fed corn earworm eggs completed development and reached adulthood. 3. In two separate choice experiments, however, big‐eyed bugs consistently attacked the nutritionally inferior prey, pea aphids, more frequently than the nutritionally superior prey, corn earworm eggs. 4. Prey mobility, not prey nutritional quality, seems to be the most important criterion used by big‐eyed bugs to select prey. Big‐eyed bugs attacked mobile aphids preferentially when given a choice between mobile and immobilised aphids. 5. Prey behaviour also mediated indirect interactions between these two prey species. The presence of mobile pea aphids as alternative prey benefited corn earworms indirectly by reducing the consumption of corn earworm eggs by big‐eyed bugs. The presence of immobilised pea aphids, however, did not benefit corn earworms indirectly because the consumption of corn earworm eggs by big‐eyed bugs was not reduced when they were present. 6. These results suggest that the prey preferences of generalist insect predators mediate indirect interactions among prey species and ultimately affect the population dynamics of the predator and prey species. Understanding the prey preferences of generalist insect predators is essential to predict accurately the efficacy of these insects as biological control agents.     

Assessment of habitat quality for four small mammal species of the Monte Desert, Argentina

In the temperate desert of Argentina, the combined action of climatic and anthropogenic factors has contributed to the formation of a highly heterogeneous landscape. In the central region of the Monte desert, four small mammal species (Eligmodontia typus, Calomys musculinus, Akodon molinae and Graomys griseoflavus) coexist and show different habitat uses in response to spatial variability. Three main habitat types are present in the region: mesquite forest, the creosotebush community and sand dunes. These habitat types are present also in the surrounding grazing area.The objective of this study was to determine habitat quality for these species in a protected area (Reserve MaB Ñacuñán) and in the adjacent grazed area. For each species we estimated demographic parameters that are highly correlated to fitness in each habitat, and for both treatments (protected and grazed).We found that the protected area offered a higher quality habitat than the grazed area for all species, but principally A. molinae and G. griseoflavus. At a local scale, we found that A. molinae and C. musculinus clearly showed higher fitness in the more complex habitats as the creosotebush community and the mesquite forest. In contrast, for E. typus, open and simplest patches, such as sand dunes, were optimal for its survival and reproduction.     

Measures of giant panda habitat selection across multiple spatial scales for species conservation

Examining ecological processes across spatial scales is crucial as animals select and use resources at different scales. We carried out field surveys in September 2005, March–September 2006, and April 2007, and used ecological niche factor analysis to determine habitat preferences for the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) across 4 spatial scales: daily movement, core range, home range, and seasonal elevational migration. We found that giant pandas prefer conifer forest and mixed forest at higher than average elevation (2,157 m) of study area in the 4 scale models. However, we also observed significant scale differences in habitat selection. The strength of habitat preference increased with scale for the 2 disturbed forests (sparse forest and fragmented forest), and decreased with scale for 0–30° gentle slope and south- and north-facing aspect. Furthermore, habitat suitability patterns were scale-dependent. These findings highlight the need to determine species–environment associations across multiple scales for habitat management and species conservation. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Ecological principles of species distribution models: the habitat matching rule

Most species distribution models (SDMs) assume that habitats are closed, stable and without competition. In that environmental context, it is ecologically correct to assume that members of a species will be distributed in direct relation to the suitability of the habitat, that is, according to the so‐called habitat matching rule. This paper examines whether it is possible to maintain the assumption of the habitat matching rule in the following circumstances: (1) when habitats are connected and organisms can move between them, (2) when there are disturbances and seasonal cycles that generate instability, and (3) when there is inter‐specific and intra‐specific competition. Here I argue that it is possible as long as the following aspects are taken into account. In open habitats at equilibrium, in which habitat selection and competition operate, the habitat matching rule can be applied in some conditions, while competition tends to homogenize the species distribution in other environmental contexts. In the latter case, two methods can be used to incorporate these effects into SDMs: new parameters can be incorporated into the response functions, or the occurrence of proportions of categories of individuals (adult/young, male/female, or dominant/subordinate species in guilds) can be used instead of the occurrence of organisms. The habitat matching rule is not fulfilled in non‐equilibrium environments. The solution to this problem lies in the design of SDMs with two strategies that depend on scale. Locally, the disequilibrium can be encapsulated using average environmental conditions, with sufficiently large cells (in the case of metapopulations) and/or long enough sampling periods (in the case of seasonal cycles). At coarse scales, the use of presence‐only models can in some cases avoid the destabilizing effect of catastrophic historical processes. The matching law is a strong assumption of SDMs because it is based on population ecology theory and the principle of evolution by natural selection.     

美国大陆外来入侵物种斑马纹贻贝(Dreissena polymorpha)潜在生境预测模型

防止外来生物入侵造成危害的重要手段是阻止可能造成入侵的物种进入适合其生存的地区.论文以1864个美国外来入侵物种斑马纹贻贝定点发生数据和开放式基础地理信息数据库Daymet的34个环境变量为主要信息源,采用逻辑斯蒂回归(LR)、分类与回归树模型(CART)、基于规则的遗传算法(GARP)、最大熵法(Maxent)4种途径,建立美国大陆部分潜在生境预测模型,从接受者运行特征曲线下面积(AUC)、Pearson相关系数、Kappa值3个方面来检验模型预测精度,在此基础上分析斑马纹贻贝的空间分布规律及其环境影响因素.研究结果表明:在3个评价指标中,4个生态位模型预测精度均达到优良水平,其中Maxent在物种现实生境模拟、主要生态环境因子筛选、环境因子对物种生境影响的定量描述方面都表现出了优越的性能;距水源距离、海拔高度、降水频率、太阳辐射是影响物种空间分布的主要环境因子.论文提出的研究方法对中国外来入侵物种生境预测具有较强的借鉴意义,研究结果对中国海洋外来入侵物种沙筛贝的预测与防治,具有一定的指导作用.     

Using species distribution models to define nesting habitat of the eastern metapopulation of double‐crested cormorants

When organisms with similar phenotypes have conflicting management and conservation initiatives, approaches are needed to differentiate among subpopulations or discrete groups. For example, the eastern metapopulation of the double‐crested cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) has a migratory phenotype that is culled because they are viewed as a threat to commercial and natural resources, whereas resident birds are targeted for conservation. Understanding the distinct breeding habitats of resident versus migratory cormorants would aid in identification and management decisions. Here, we use species distribution models (SDM: Maxent) of cormorant nesting habitat to examine the eastern P. auritus metapopulation and the predicted breeding sites of its phenotypes. We then estimate the phenotypic identity of breeding colonies of cormorants where management plans are being developed. We transferred SDMs trained on data from resident bird colonies in Florida and migratory bird colonies in Minnesota to South Carolina in an effort to identify the phenotype of breeding cormorants there based on the local landscape characteristics. Nesting habitat characteristics of cormorant colonies in South Carolina more closely resembled those of the Florida phenotype than those of birds of the Minnesota phenotype. The presence of the resident phenotype in summer suggests that migratory and resident cormorants will co‐occur in South Carolina in winter. Thus, there is an opportunity for separate management strategies for the two phenotypes in that state. We found differences in nesting habitat characteristics that could be used to refine management strategies and reduce human conflicts with abundant winter migrants and, at the same time, conserve less common colonies of resident cormorants. The models we use here show potential for advancing the study of geographically overlapping phenotypes with differing conservation and management priorities.     

Changes in habitat selection patterns of the gray partridge Perdix perdix in relation to agricultural landscape dynamics over the past two decades

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Factors influencing species selection for littoral rainforest restoration: Do environmental gradients matter?

Summary Littoral rainforest in northern New South Wales, Australia, has been severely reduced in area and is now extremely limited in extent. Factors influencing the floristics, species richness and abundance, and relationship of this coastal rainforest community type to other lowland rainforests are explored. The purpose of the study was to provide ecological information to support (i) the development of management recommendations and assist habitat expansion and restoration planning for a coastal site at Lennox Head, in northern New South Wales, and (ii) the implementation of recovery actions for an endangered ecological community and an endangered tree species. Multivariate analysis techniques were used to classify and ordinate sampled sites relative to environmental variables to provide an explanation for current floristic assemblages. Eight locations at varying distances to the coast, and representing a range of soil types, were chosen to test the influence of selected environmental variables. At the broad scale, the results show that proximity to the coast and altitude were generally correlated and represented the most influential variables; soil depth, topographic position and slope were broadly correlated but markedly less influential; disturbance was a significant but independent influence on floristics; and soil type and aspect had the least influence. The study provided insight into the ecological parameters of a range of species suited to the habitat rehabilitation and restoration project, and identified finer‐scale floristic patterns at the Lennox site that appear to reflect the influence of environmental variables. In that case, areas in closer proximity to the ocean are dominated by several littoral rainforest and disturbance‐related species, and species richness increases relative to distance from the ocean. This highlights the need to be sensitive to landscape variation, and the influence of environmental variables on plant species distributions, and population dynamics and structure, to guide final selection of appropriate plant material for littoral rainforest restoration projects.     

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire‐bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire‐bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East‐central China, which has been classified as near‐threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km². The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long‐term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.