Geographic range limits of species

Understanding the forms that the geographic range limits of species take, their causes and their consequences are key issues in ecology and evolutionary biology. They are also topics on which understanding is advancing rapidly. This themed issue of Proc. R. Soc. B focuses on the wide variety of current research perspectives on the nature and determinants of the limits to geographic ranges. The contributions address important themes, including the roles and influences of dispersal limitation, species interactions and physiological limitation, the broad patterns in the structure of geographic ranges, and the fundamental question of why at some point species no longer evolve the ability to overcome the factors constraining their distributions and thus fail to continue to spread. In this introduction, these contributions are placed in the wider context of these broad themes.     

Skyline-plot methods for estimating demographic history from nucleotide sequences

Estimation of demographic history from nucleotide sequences represents an important component of many studies in molecular ecology. For example, knowledge of a population's history can allow us to test hypotheses about the impact of climatic and anthropogenic factors. In the past, demographic analysis was typically limited to relatively simple population models, such as exponential or logistic growth. More flexible approaches are now available, including skyline-plot methods that are able to reconstruct changes in population sizes through time. This technical review focuses on these skyline-plot methods. We describe some general principles relating to sampling design and data collection. We then provide an outline of the methodological framework, which is based on coalescent theory, before tracing the development of the various skyline-plot methods and describing their key features. The performance and properties of the methods are illustrated using two simulated data sets.     

kakusan: a computer program to automate the selection of a nucleotide substitution model and the configuration of a mixed model on multilocus data

The application of different substitution models to each gene (a.k.a. mixed model) should be considered in model‐based phylogenetic analysis of multigene sequences. However, a single molecular evolution model is still usually applied. There are no computer programs able to conduct model selection for multiple loci at the same time, though several recently developed types of software for phylogenetic inference can handle mixed model. Here, I have developed computer software named ‘kakusan’ that enables us to solve the above problems. Major running steps are briefly described, and an analysis of results with kakusan is compared to that obtained with other program.     

An assessment of accuracy, error, and conflict with support values from genome-scale phylogenetic data

Despite the importance of molecular phylogenetics, few of its assumptions have been tested with real data. It is commonly assumed that nonparametric bootstrap values are an underestimate of the actual support, Bayesian posterior probabilities are an overestimate of the actual support, and among-gene phylogenetic conflict is low. We directly tested these assumptions by using a well-supported yeast reference tree. We found that bootstrap values were not significantly different from accuracy. Bayesian support values were, however, significant overestimates of accuracy but still had low false-positive error rates (0% to 2.8%) at the highest values (>99%). Although we found evidence for a branch-length bias contributing to conflict, there was little evidence for widespread, strongly supported among-gene conflict from bootstraps. The results demonstrate that caution is warranted concerning conclusions of conflict based on the assumption of underestimation for support values in real data.     

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock'', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

A Bayesian model comparison approach to inferring positive selection

A popular approach to detecting positive selection is to estimate the parameters of a probabilistic model of codon evolution and perform inference based on its maximum likelihood parameter values. This approach has been evaluated intensively in a number of simulation studies and found to be robust when the available data set is large. However, uncertainties in the estimated parameter values can lead to errors in the inference, especially when the data set is small or there is insufficient divergence between the sequences. We introduce a Bayesian model comparison approach to infer whether the sequence as a whole contains sites at which the rate of nonsynonymous substitution is greater than the rate of synonymous substitution. We incorporated this probabilistic model comparison into a Bayesian approach to site-specific inference of positive selection. Using simulated sequences, we compared this approach to the commonly used empirical Bayes approach and investigated the effect of tree length on the performance of both methods. We found that the Bayesian approach outperforms the empirical Bayes method when the amount of sequence divergence is small and is less prone to false-positive inference when the sequences are saturated, while the results are indistinguishable for intermediate levels of sequence divergence.     

Analysis of the evolutionary relationships of HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences using bayesian inference: implications for the origin of HIV-1

The most plausible origin of HIV-1 group M is an SIV lineage currently represented by SIVcpz isolated from the chimpanzee subspecies Pan troglodytes troglodytes. The origin of HIV-1 group O is less clear. Putative recombination between any of the HIV-1 and SIVcpz sequences was tested using bootscanning and Bayesian-scanning plots, as well as a new method using a Bayesian multiple change-point (BMCP) model to infer parental sequences and crossing-over points. We found that in the case of highly divergent sequences, such as HIV-1/SIVcpz, Bayesian scanning and BMCP methods are more appropriate than bootscanning analysis to investigate spatial phylogenetic variation, including estimating the boundaries of the regions with discordant evolutionary relationships and the levels of support of the phylogenetic clusters under study. According to the Bayesian scanning plots and BMCP method, there was strong evidence for discordant phylogenetic clustering throughout the genome: (1) HIV-1 group O clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in middle pol, and partial vif/env; (2) SIVcpzGab1 clustered with SIVcpzANT/TAN in 3'pol/vif, and middle env; (3) HIV-1 group O grouped with SIVcpzCamUS and SIVcpzGab1 in p17/p24; (4) HIV-1 group M was more closely related to SIVcpzCamUS in 3'gag/pol and in middle pol, whereas in partial gp120 group M clustered with group O. Conditionally independent phylogenetic analysis inferred by maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian methods further confirmed these findings. The discordant phylogenetic relationships between the HIV-1/SIVcpz sequences may have been caused by ancient recombination events, but they are also due, at least in part, to altered rates of evolution between parental SIVcpz lineages.     

Performance of a new invariants method on homogeneous and nonhomogeneous quartet trees

An attempt to use phylogenetic invariants for tree reconstruction was made at the end of the 80s and the beginning of the 90s by several researchers (the initial idea due to Lake [1987] and Cavender and Felsenstein [1987]). However, the efficiency of methods based on invariants is still in doubt (Huelsenbeck 1995; Jin and Nei 1990). Probably because these methods only used few generators of the set of phylogenetic invariants. The method studied in this paper was first introduced in Casanellas et al. (2005) and it is the first method based on invariants that uses the "whole" set of generators for DNA data. The simulation studies performed in this paper prove that it is a very competitive and highly efficient phylogenetic reconstruction method, especially for nonhomogeneous models on phylogenetic trees.     

Variation in evolutionary processes at different codon positions

Evolutionary studies commonly model single nucleotide substitutions and assume that they occur as independent draws from a unique probability distribution across the sequence studied. This assumption is violated for protein-coding sequences, and we consider modeling approaches where codon positions (CPs) are treated as separate categories of sites because within each category the assumption is more reasonable. Such "codon-position" models have been shown to explain the evolution of codon data better than homogenous models in previous studies. This paper examines the ways in which codon-position models outperform homogeneous models and characterizes the differences in estimates of model parameters across CPs. Using the PANDIT database of multiple species DNA sequence alignments, we quantify the differences in the evolutionary processes at the 3 CPs in a systematic and comprehensive manner, characterizing previously undescribed features of protein evolution. We relate our findings to the functional constraints imposed by the genetic code, protein function, and the types of mutation that cause synonymous and nonsynonymous codon changes. The results increase our understanding of selective constraints and could be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses or gene-finding techniques in the future. The methods used are extended to an overlapping reading frame data set, and we discover that overlapping reading frames do not necessarily cause more stringent evolutionary constraints.     

Cultural phylogeography of the Bantu Languages of sub-Saharan Africa

There is disagreement about the routes taken by populations speaking Bantu languages as they expanded to cover much of sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we build phylogenetic trees of Bantu languages and map them onto geographical space in order to assess the likely pathway of expansion and test between dispersal scenarios. The results clearly support a scenario in which groups first moved south through the rainforest from a homeland somewhere near the Nigeria–Cameroon border. Emerging on the south side of the rainforest, one branch moved south and west. Another branch moved towards the Great Lakes, eventually giving rise to the monophyletic clade of East Bantu languages that inhabit East and Southeastern Africa. These phylogenies also reveal information about more general processes involved in the diversification of human populations into distinct ethnolinguistic groups. Our study reveals that Bantu languages show a latitudinal gradient in covering greater areas with increasing distance from the equator. Analyses suggest that this pattern reflects a true ecological relationship rather than merely being an artefact of shared history. The study shows how a phylogeographic approach can address questions relating to the specific histories of certain groups, as well as general cultural evolutionary processes.     

分子进化生物学中序列分析方法的新进展

简要介绍了分子进化生物学中序列分析方法的最新进展,特别强调了似然比检验和贝叶斯推论在分子进化和系统发育假说检验中的重要性,并介绍了新方法的一些成功应用,同时还给出了一些重要的信息资源。     

Words as alleles: connecting language evolution with Bayesian learners to models of genetic drift

Scientists studying how languages change over time often make an analogy between biological and cultural evolution, with words or grammars behaving like traits subject to natural selection. Recent work has exploited this analogy by using models of biological evolution to explain the properties of languages and other cultural artefacts. However, the mechanisms of biological and cultural evolution are very different: biological traits are passed between generations by genes, while languages and concepts are transmitted through learning. Here we show that these different mechanisms can have the same results, demonstrating that the transmission of frequency distributions over variants of linguistic forms by Bayesian learners is equivalent to the Wright–Fisher model of genetic drift. This simple learning mechanism thus provides a justification for the use of models of genetic drift in studying language evolution. In addition to providing an explicit connection between biological and cultural evolution, this allows us to define a ‘neutral’ model that indicates how languages can change in the absence of selection at the level of linguistic variants. We demonstrate that this neutral model can account for three phenomena: the s-shaped curve of language change, the distribution of word frequencies, and the relationship between word frequencies and extinction rates.